Ocean Salmon Fisheries Off the Coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

50 CFR Part 661

[Docket No. 940120-4020; I.D. No. 011094A]

RIN No. 0648-AE05

Ocean Salmon Fisheries Off the Coasts of Washington, Oregon, and

California

AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: The Secretary of Commerce (Secretary) requests public comments

on a proposed rule to implement Amendment 11 (amendment) to the Fishery

Management Plan for Commercial and Recreational Salmon Fisheries Off

the Coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California (FMP). Amendment 11

would modify the spawning escapement goal for Oregon coastal natural

(OCN) coho salmon and the criteria for establishing and managing

subarea allocations for recreational coho salmon harvest south of Cape

Falcon, Oregon (45 deg.46'00'' N. lat.). The amendment is intended to:

(1) Address persistent low OCN coho stock abundance and annual

escapement goals below maximum sustainable yield (MSY); (2) to prevent

imbalances in recreational coho harvest allocation at low allowable

harvest levels; and (3) to prevent the frequent use of emergency

rulemaking to implement annual management measures.

DATES: Written comments on the amendment and the proposed rule must be

received by March 21, 1994.

ADDRESSES: Comments should be sent to J. Gary Smith, Acting Director,

Northwest Region, National Marine Fisheries Service, 7600 Sand Point

Way NE., BIN C15700-Bldg. 1, Seattle, WA 98115-0070, or Dr. Gary

Matlock, Acting Director, Southwest Region, National Marine Fisheries

Service, 501 West Ocean Blvd., suite 4200, Long Beach, CA 90802-4213.

Copies of the amendment, including the environmental assessment and the

regulatory impact review/initial regulatory flexibility analysis, are

available from Lawrence D. Six, Executive Director, Pacific Fishery

Management Council, Metro Center, suite 420, 2000 SW. First Avenue,

Portland, OR 97201-5344.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:William L. Robinson at 206-526-6140,

Rodney R. McInnis at 310-980-4040, or Lawrence D. Six at 503-326-6352.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The ocean salmon fisheries in the exclusive

economic zone of the United States (3 to 200 miles offshore) in the

Pacific Ocean off the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California are

managed under the FMP. The FMP was developed by the Pacific Fishery

Management Council (Council) under the Magnuson Fishery Conservation

and Management Act, 16 U.S.C. 1801 et seq. (Magnuson Act), and approved

by the Secretary in 1978. Since then, the FMP has been amended 10

times, with implementing regulations codified at 50 CFR part 661. From

1979 to 1983, the FMP was amended annually. In 1984, a framework

amendment was implemented that provided the mechanism for making

preseason and inseason adjustments in the regulations without annual

amendments. Amendments to the framework FMP were implemented in 1987,

1988, 1989, and 1991.

The Council prepared Amendment 11 to the FMP and submitted it to

the Secretary for approval under the provisions of the Magnuson Act. On

January 10, 1994, the Secretary began formal review of the amendment. A

notice of availability for Amendment 11 was filed with the Office of

the Federal Register on January 14, 1994, announcing a public comment

period on the amendment.

The FMP amendment process for Amendment 11 was initiated at the

April 6-9, 1993, Council meeting with the presentation of several

alternative proposals by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife

(ODFW) to address OCN coho salmon management concerns. Council

discussions at its September 15-17, 1993, meeting identified three

alternatives, in addition to the status quo, requiring further

analyses. A draft amendment was prepared and distributed to interested

persons for review in October 1993. Comments were invited, and public

hearings were held November 8-10, 1993, in Tillamook and Coos Bay,

Oregon, and Eureka, California (58 FR 57978, October 28, 1993). During

the public hearings, the ODFW and the California Department of Fish and

Game (CDFG) presented for Council consideration a joint recommendation

regarding recreational allocation.

After considering the comments received on the draft amendment at

the public hearing and Council meetings, and from its Salmon Technical

Team, Salmon Advisory Subpanel, and Scientific and Statistical

Committee, the Council, at its November 17-19, 1993, meeting, selected

the preferred alternative, which is based on the joint recommendation

by the ODFW and CDFG. The Council's recommendation is a modification of

the alternatives described in the draft amendment for public review and

falls within the scope of those alternatives.

The purpose of Amendment 11 is to modify the spawning escapement

goal for OCN coho salmon, and the criteria for establishing and

managing, when harvest levels are low, subarea allocations for

recreational coho salmon harvest south of Cape Falcon, Oregon. The OCN

coho stock is composed of naturally produced coho salmon from Oregon

coastal streams. OCN coho are important contributors to the ocean

salmon harvest, as the stock aggregate constitutes the largest

component of naturally produced coho caught in ocean salmon fisheries

off Oregon and California. In any given year, OCN coho stock numbers

are used to set the allowable coho harvest rate for combined natural

and hatchery production for the area south of Cape Falcon.

Spawning Escapement Goal

Prior to 1987, the OCN coho spawning escapement goal was 200,000

adults, the MSY spawning escapement level determined by the ODFW. The

current method of determining the OCN coho spawning escapement goal and

harvest rate was adopted by the Council in 1986 and implemented by

Amendment 7 to the FMP beginning in 1987. Amendment 7 established an

OCN spawning escapement goal floor of 135,000 coho for estimated ocean

abundances of up to 270,000 coho. the spawning escapement goal changes

to 50 percent of the ocean abundance (50 percent harvest rate) for

ocean abundances between 270,000 and 400,000 coho, and is capped at

200,000 coho for ocean abundances above 400,000 coho.

Amendment 7 was intended to allow some additional harvest in years

when unusual conditions such as the 1983 El Nino might temporarily

reduce stock abundance below 400,000 coho. The analysis supporting

Amendment 7 indicated that implementing the amendment would provide

increased economic benefits with a low likelihood that occasionally

allowing the spawning escapement to drop to the floor level of 135,000

would jeopardize the continued productivity of the OCN stock.

The analysis supporting deviations from the fixed 200,000 spawning

escapement goal at low stock sizes assumed that such deviations would

occur infrequently. However, since 1985 the annual spawning escapement

goal has been set below the 200,000 MSY level 50 percent of the time,

and since 1979 the actual spawning escapement has met or exceeded

200,000 coho in only a single year, 1984. During this same period, the

post-season estimates of total OCN stock size have not exceeded 360,000

coho salmon, compared to the 700,000 stock size that is believed to

represent the MSY level. The reasons for this extended stock depression

are not completely understood. Factors contributing to the decline of

OCN coho include widespread and significant degradation of freshwater

habitat, an extended period of poor ocean survival, and overestimation

of stock abundance.

The methodology for predicting the ocean abundance of OCN coho

south of Cape Falcon has had mixed results since 1984. Despite a

rigorous technical review of the OCN predictor by the Council in 1987,

the predictor has consistently and significantly overestimated

preseason abundance since its adoption in 1988. As a result, the

formula in the FMP for calculating the spawning escapement goal and

associated ocean harvest rate for OCN coho has resulted in overharvest

and spawning escapement falling short of its goal for the past 6 years.

In April 1991, the Council established an overfishing work group to

review the status of OCN coho. This assessment was completed in

February 1992 and included a review of the stock abundance predictor.

While the current methodology was under review, the Council was not

able to implement a new methodology that was more reliable than the

current predictor for estimating ocean abundance. To compensate for the

overestimation bias in the current predictor, the Council relied on

emergency regulations in 1991, 1992, and 1993 to reduce the ocean

harvest rate on OCN coho from the levels set in Amendment 7, thus

allowing additional natural spawners to escape the ocean fisheries.

Amendment 11 would modify the OCN coho spawning escapement goal so

as to achieve an aggregate OCN adult spawning density of 42 naturally

spawning adults per mile in standard index survey areas each year. The

standard index survey areas are 48 different stream sections that have

been surveyed by ODFW each year since 1950. Under the current methods

used by ODFW, the number of spawners in the standard index area is

extrapolated for 4,764 miles of coastal spawning habitat. This

translates to a numerical spawning escapement goal of 200,000. The

original FMP spawning escapement goal of 200,000 was based on this

expansion. This number of adult spawners per mile was documented as the

estimated MSY spawning escapement level in an ODFW study of coastal

stream spawning escapements and subsequent production from 1950 to

1980. The ODFW is currently in the fourth year of a 5-year study to

confirm the relationship between the number of natural spawners counted

in standard index survey areas and the total OCN coho salmon spawning

populations. This study may provide a better definition of the total

OCN coho spawning population when it is completed, and the results may

lead to revisions in the estimated total number of spawners at the MSY

level that is calculated by extrapolating from the 42 adults per mile

in the standard index survey areas. This type of change would not

necessitate any further changes to the FMP or its implementing

regulations. If further studies result in recommended changes to the

optimum number (42) of adult spawners per mile in the standard index

survey areas, the FMP will need to be amended or, if the change is

purely technical, the spawning escapement goal may be revised through

the framework provided in 50 CFR 661, Appendix IV.B. At this time,

however, Amendment 11 represents the best available science.

Amendment 11 also states that when OCN coho abundance is forecast

to be less than 125 percent of the annual numerical escapement goal, or

below 250,000 fish at the present spawner escapement goal of 200,000

adults, an incidental exploitation rate of up to 20 percent would be

allowed for ocean and freshwater fisheries targeting on non-OCN coho

salmon stocks. Concern was expressed that, when OCN coho abundance

forecasts are below 168,750, the proposal for up to a 20 percent

incidental harvest rate could allow OCN coho spawning escapements below

the 135,000 fish floor currently contained in the FMP. In response to

this concern, the Council modified the proposal to emphasize that the

20 percent represented a maximum harvest rate. The Council will

evaluate the actual level of incidental harvest of OCN coho that might

be expected to occur in fisheries for chinook salmon and non-OCN coho

salmon and will recommend only the minimum incidental harvest rate

necessary to prosecute other fisheries, provided the rate chosen will

cause no irreparable harm to the OCN stock.

Recreational Harvest Allocation

Amendment 11 also proposes to modify the subarea allocations for

the recreational fishery south of Cape Falcon when the allowable

recreational coho allocation for the entire area is equal to or less

than 167,000 fish. This modification is intended to maintain the

historical catch distribution between Oregon and California when stock

sizes are at low levels, so that one geographical area is not

disproportionately affected by the harvest reductions.

Due to the northward migration pattern of the affected coho stocks,

coho landings occur early in the season off California and gradually

move north into Oregon. Coho landings south of Humbug Mountain, Oregon

(42 deg. 40'30'' N. lat.), taper off dramatically after July, whereas

central Oregon fisheries tend to reach peak coho landings in July and

August with fish available into September. Currently, when the

recreational coho quota south of Cape Falcon is reached, the

recreational fishery for coho remains open south of Humbug Mountain. In

the past, the south of Cape Falcon coho quota has generally been

reached after mid-August; the impacts of allowing the California

recreational fishery to continue have been minor, as the season has

been near the end and coho catches are generally very low south of

Humbug Mountain.

With the reduction in the coho quotas and overall harvest rates

caused by low coho abundance, it is possible that early fisheries to

the south could catch most of the available coho impacts before fish

become readily available off central Oregon, resulting in a shift of

the harvest to southern Oregon and California fisheries. An example of

such a redistribution occurred during the 1993 season.

In 1993, 68,000 coho were available for the recreational fishery

south of Cape Falcon. The recreational season off central Oregon was

closed on August 10 with 56 percent of the recreational harvest caught

south of Humbug Mountain and 25 percent occurring south of Horse

Mountain, California (40 deg. 05'00'' N. lat.). From 1976 to 1992 for

comparison, the recreational coho harvest south of Cape Falcon averaged

over 200,000 coho and the harvest south of Humbug Mountain averaged 23

percent, with 2 percent occurring south of Horse Mountain.

To maintain the historical catch distribution given the current low

harvest levels, Amendment 11 establishes two subareas with independent

impact quotas to ensure that a large southward shift in the

recreational harvest does not occur. Of the total recreational

allocation, the subarea from Cape Falcon to Humbug Mountain, Oregon,

receives 70 percent and the subarea south of Humbug Mountain receives

30 percent, with the percentages being based on avoiding large

deviations from historical harvest shares. Except for the area south of

Point Arena, California (38 deg. 57'30'' N. lat.), the two subareas

will be managed for their respective impact quotas, and the

recreational fisheries for coho salmon in each area may be closed upon

attainment of the quota. South of Humbug Mountain, there are 2

additional conditions: (1) An impact guideline of 3 percent of the

overall south of Cape Falcon recreational allocation will be applied

from Horse Mountain to Point Arena, California; and (2) the

recreational fishery for coho salmon will not be closed south of Point

Arena, even if the fishery between Humbug Mountain and Point Arena is

closed, upon projected attainment of the south of Humbug Mountain

impact quota, but the projected harvest through the end of the year

will be included in the south of Humbug Mountain impact quota. Quota

transfers between subareas are allowed on a one-for-one basis, but only

if chinook constraints preclude access to coho.

Selection of 167,000 as the trigger for this allocation is based on

2 factors: (1) It represents a low harvest level at which a southward

shift is likely due to the migratory pattern of coho and the timing of

normal fishing seasons, and (2) it is the upper limit of the

recreational allocation that is subject to reduction to meet hook-and-

release mortality in the commercial all-salmon-except-coho fishery.

Implementation of Amendment 11 would require changes to the

regulatory language in the appendix to 50 CFR part 661.

Classification

Section 304(a)(1)(D) of the Magnuson Act, as amended, requires the

Secretary to publish regulations proposed by a Council within 15 days

of receipt of the amendment and regulations. At this time the Secretary

has not determined that the amendment these rules would implement is

consistent with the national standards, other provisions of the

Magnuson Act, and other applicable law. The Secretary, in making that

determination, will take into account the data, views, and comments

received during the comment period.

This action is not significant and is not subject to review under

E.O. 12866.

This proposed rule, if adopted, will have a significant economic

impact on a substantial number of small entities for purposes of the

Regulatory Flexibility Act. The Council prepared a regulatory impact

review (RIR) and an initial regulatory flexibility analysis (IRFA),

which are incorporated in the Amendment 11 document and may be obtained

from the Council (see ADDRESSES). A summary of the economic impacts

evaluated apply to small business entities because this industry

consists primarily of small entities. Under the Council's recommended

alternative that eliminates the sliding scale escapement goal,

allowable coho ocean harvests will be reduced in the short term, with

the changes in net economic value (NEV) in the millions of dollars

(estimates of -$1.5 million and -$3.2 million were made based on

landings data for 1990 and 1992, respectively). Over the long term,

some stock rebuilding is expected, resulting in an increase in

allowable harvests and a reduction in the negative effects in any one

year. Expression of the spawning escapement goal in terms of a number

of fish per mile in standard index survey areas is expected to reduce

administrative costs by allowing the Council to use the best available

information to achieve MSY escapement without emergency regulations or

FMP amendments. At reduced allowable harvest levels for the

recreational fishery (under 167,000 coho), the Council's recommended

alternative will maintain harvest shares between central Oregon and

areas south of Humbug Mountain close to historic levels and minimize

any controversy resulting from a geographic shift of harvest from

northern to southern areas.

The Council prepared an environmental assessment for this amendment

that concludes there will be no significant impact on the human

environment as a result of this rule. The environmental assessment has

been incorporated in the Amendment 11 document and may be obtained from

the Council (see ADDRESSES).

The Assistant Administrator for Fisheries, NOAA, has determined

that this rule, if implemented, is not like to adversely affect Snake

River sockeye salmon, Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon, Snake

River fall chinook salmon or Sacramento River winter-run chinook

salmon, species listed under the Endangered Species Act. This rule will

generally apply a more conservative management standard for coho salmon

off Oregon and California. Given the integrated management structure of

chinook and coho fisheries, the rule will generally reduce impacts and,

therefore, have a beneficial effect on the currently listed species. In

addition, no fishing on these stocks will occur until a section 7

consultation has been completed governing the annual harvest regime

under the FMP.

NMFS has received petitions to list two coho stocks from central

California (March 11, 1993), five Oregon stocks (July 21, 1993), and a

coastwide petition for all coho salmon (October 20, 1993). In response

to the first two petitions, NMFS published a notice in the Federal

Register announcing its intent to conduct a comprehensive status review

to assess all coho stocks in Washington, Oregon, and California

(October 27, 1993, 58 FR 57770). This rule will affect many of the

stocks petitioned for listing. However, because the rule will implement

more conservative standards for the management of coho fisheries, NMFS

concludes that it would have a generally beneficial effect on

petitioned coho salmon species as well.

List of Subjects in 50 CFR Part 661

Fisheries, Fishing, Indians, Reporting and recordkeeping

requirements.

Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1801 et seq.

Dated: January 27, 1994.

Nancy Foster,

Deputy Assistant Administrator for Fisheries, National Marine Fisheries

Service.

For the reasons set forth in the preamble, 50 CFR part 661 is

proposed to be amended as follows:

PART 661--OCEAN SALMON FISHERIES OFF THE COASTS OF WASHINGTON,

OREGON, AND CALIFORNIA

1. The authority citation for part 661 continues to read as

follows:

Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1801 et seq.

2. In the Appendix to part 661, in section II.B., a new sentence is

added to the end of paragraph 2(b)(i), and a new paragraph 2(b)(v) is

added to read as follows:

Appendix

* * * * *

II. Annual Changes to Management Specifications

* * * * *

B. Procedures for Establishing and Adjusting Annual Management Measures

* * * * *

2. Allocation of ocean harvest levels.

* * * * *

(b) Coho south of Cape Falcon. (i) * * * The recreational allowable

ocean harvest will be distributed between the two major recreational

subareas when the recreational allocation is equal to or less than

167,000 fish in accordance with paragraph 2(b)(v) of this section.

* * * * *

(v) When the recreational allocation is at 167,000 fish or less,

the total recreational allowable ocean harvest of coho will be divided

between two major subareas with independent impact quotas. The initial

allocation will be 70 percent from Cape Falcon to Humbug Mountain and

30 percent south of Humbug Mountain. Coho transfers between the two

impact quotas may be permitted on a one-for-one basis, if chinook

constraints preclude access to coho. Horse Mountain to Point Arena will

be managed for an impact guideline of 3 percent of the south of Cape

Falcon recreational allocation. The recreational coho fishery between

Humbug Mountain and Point Arena may be closed when it is projected that

the harvest impact between Humbug Mountain and Point Arena, combined

with the projected harvest impact that will be taken south of Point

Arena to the end of the season, equals the impact quota for south of

Humbug Mountain. The recreational fishery for coho salmon south of

Point Arena will not close upon attainment of the south of Humbug

Mountain impact quota.

* * * * *

3. In the Appendix to part 661, in section IV.A., the table

``Summary of Specific Management Goals for Stocks in the Salmon

Management Unit'' is amended by revising the entry for Columbia River

and Oregon Coastal Coho and its footnote 4 to read as follows:

* * * * *

Summary of Specific Management Goals for Stocks in the Salmon Management

Unit

------------------------------------------------------------------------

System Spawning\1\ escapement goal

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Columbia River and Oregon Coastal Oregon coastal natural (OCN) coho

Coho. spawning escapement is based on an

aggregate density of 42 naturally

spawning adults per mile in

standard index survey areas.\4\

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\1\Represents adult natural spawning escapement goal for viable natural

stocks or adult hatchery return goal for stocks managed for artificial

production.

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\4\At OCN stock sizes below 125 percent of the annual numerical

escapement goal, an exploitation rate of up to 20 percent will be

allowed for incidental impacts of the combined ocean troll, sport, and

freshwater fisheries. At OCN spawning escapements of 28 or fewer

adults per mile, an exploitation rate of up to 20 percent may be

allowed to provide only minimum incidental harvest to prosecute other

fisheries, provided the rate chosen will cause no irreparable harm to

the OCN stock.

*****

[FR Doc. 94-2274 Filed 1-28-94; 9:55 am]

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