Section 8 Housing Assistance Payments Program-Fair Market Rent Schedules for Use in the Rental Certificate Program, et cetera; Proposed Rule DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

SUMMARY: Section 8(c)(1) of the United States Housing Act of 1937

requires the Secretary to publish fair market rents (FMRs)

periodically, but not less frequently than annually, to be effective

October 1 of each year. The Department's regulations at 24 CFR part 888

provide a notice and comment process for developing FMRs.

Today's Notice proposes the FMRs for Fiscal Year 1995 (FY-1995) in

two separate sets of proposed FMRs--one based on the 45th percentile

rent of the rental distributions of standard quality rental housing

units, and the other based on the 40th percentile rent of the same

rental housing distributions. HUD is publishing two sets of FMRs at

this time because the Administration has proposed a reduction in the

FMR standard as a means for saving funds in order to serve additional

low-income families. The administration is working with Congress on

this and other changes being considered as part of the rent reforms

proposed for the FY 1995 budget. If the reduction in the FMR standard

is enacted into law after the date of this publication, the final FMRs

will be those based on the 40th percentile rents. Todays Notice,

therefore, requests public comments from parties interested in

commenting on the appropriateness of the levels of the proposed FMRs,

i.e., whether they are too high or too low based on the prevailing

rents within the FMR area. To be considered for revising the proposed

FMRs, the public comments must include statistically valid rental

housing survey data. These data must include the rental housing

distributions that identify both the 40th and 45th percentile rents.

Section VI of this Notice provides instructions for submitting comments

on the appropriateness of the proposed FY 1995 FMR estimates.

DATES: Comments due date: August 22, 1994.

ADDRESSES: Interested persons are invited to submit comments regarding

HUD's determination of the 45th and 40th percentile rent estimates as

published in this Notice to the Office of the General Counsel, Rules

Docket Clerk, Room 10276, Department of Housing and Urban Development,

451 Seventh Street SW, Washington, DC 20410. Communications should

refer to the above docket number and title and should contain the

information specified in Section VI. To ensure that the information is

fully considered by all of the reviewers, each commenter is requested

to submit two copies of its comments, one to the Rules Docket Clerk and

the other to the Economic and Market Analysis Staff in the appropriate

HUD Field Office. A copy of each communication submitted will be

available for public inspection and copying during regular business

hours (7:30 a.m.-5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) at the above address.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Gerald J. Benoit, Rental Assistance

Division, Office of Public and Indian Housing (202) 708-0477 (TDD:

(202) 708-0850), for questions relating to the Section 8 Voucher,

Certificate, and Moderate Rehabilitation programs; James Tahash,

Program Planning Division, Office of Multifamily Housing Management

(202) 708-3944 (TDD: (202) 708-4594), for questions relating to all

other Section 8 programs; for technical information regarding the

development of the schedules for specific areas or the method used for

calculating the FMRs, Michael R. Allard, Economic and Market Analysis

Division, Office of Policy Development and Research (202) 708-0577

(TDD: (202) 708-0770). Mailing address for above persons: Department of

Housing and Urban Development, 451 Seventh Street SW, Washington, DC

20410. (Telephone numbers are not toll-free.)

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

I. Background

Section 8 of the U. S. Housing Act of 1937 (the Act) (42 U.S.C.

1437f) authorizes housing assistance to aid low-income families in

renting decent, safe, and sanitary housing. Assistance payments are

limited by Fair Market Rents (FMRs) (or payment standards, established

by local housing authorities, based on FMRs in the Rental Voucher

program) established by HUD for different areas. In general, the FMR

for an area is the amount that would be needed to pay the gross rent

(shelter rent plus utilities) of privately owned, decent, safe, and

sanitary rental housing of a modest (non-luxury) nature with suitable

amenities.

The FMRs proposed in this Notice govern the following Section 8

Housing Assistance Payments programs: the Rental Certificate program

under part 882 (subparts A and B), including space rentals by owners of

manufactured homes (subpart F), the Moderate Rehabilitation program

under part 882 (subparts D and E), the loan management program for

projects with HUD-insured or HUD-held mortgages under part 886 (subpart

A), the Property Disposition program under part 886 (subpart C), and

any other programs whose regulations provide for the use of these FMRs.

In addition, FMRs are used to establish payment standards for the

Rental Voucher program (part 887).

II. Procedures for the Development of FMRs

Section 8(c) of the Act requires the Secretary of HUD to publish

FMRs periodically, but not less frequently than annually. The

Department's regulations provide that HUD will develop FMRs by

publishing proposed FMRs for public comment, analyzing the public

comment, and publishing final FMRs. (See 24 CFR 888.115.)

III. FMR Schedules

This notice proposes revised FMRs for FY 1995. The two sets of FMR

schedules at the end of this document list the FMR levels for the

Rental Certificate program (Schedule B), and for the areas where the

manufactured home space FMRs have had modifications approved (Schedule

D).

In last year's May 6, 1993 publication of the FY 1994 proposed

FMRs, HUD announced that it was considering other alternatives and

invited comments for establishing the manufactured home space rents. No

comments were received in response to that request. Because the FMRs

for manufactured home spaces are based on old survey data, and there

are no Census data available for updating these estimates, HUD does not

consider them to be sufficiently accurate for continued use. Further,

since there is very limited use of this program, the expected cost of

obtaining the necessary survey data to revise the estimates currently

being used would not be justified. Therefore, the proposed FY 1995 FMRs

for manufactured home spaces are established at 30 percent of the

applicable Section 8 Rental Certificate program two-bedroom FMR. HUD

arrived at the 30 percent standard after analyzing the current

manufactured home space FMRs and concluding that the substantial

majority of them were from 20 to 30 percent of the two-bedroom FMR. For

those areas where the manufactured home space rentals are thought to

differ from the 30 percent standard, HUD will accept public comments

requesting modification of the proposed FMR. To be considered for

approval, the comments for the proposed FY 1995 FMRs must contain

statistically valid survey data that show both the 45th and 40th

percentile space rent (excluding the cost of utilities) for the FMR

area. This program uses the same FMR area definitions as the Rental

Certificate program. All manufactured home space rental public comments

approved by HUD in the future will be published as final FMRs in

Schedule D. In addition, HUD is retaining all of the manufactured home

space FMR modifications approved, to date, since 1990. The reason for

continuing in effect the modified FMRs is that they are based on recent

survey data that HUD has determined to be valid. The areas with

manufactured home space FMRs based on modifications are shown in the

Schedule D tables at the 45th and 40th percentile rent levels.

IV. Metropolitan Area Definitions

With the exceptions discussed below, last year's FMRs incorporated

the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) revised definitions of

metropolitan areas that were released on December 31, 1992 and modified

on June 30, 1993 in OMB bulletins Nos. 93-05 and 93-17. HUD uses the

OMB Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and Primary Metropolitan

Statistical Area (PMSA) definitions because of their close

correspondence with housing market area definitions. FMRs are intended

to be housing market-wide rent estimates that provide housing

opportunities throughout the geographic area in which rental housing

units are in direct competition.

The FMR area exceptions to the OMB definitions are counties deleted

from seven large metropolitan areas whose revised OMB definitions

encompass areas that were determined to be larger than the housing

market areas. The FMR areas and the respective counties deleted are the

following:

FMR area and counties deleted from previous FMR area definition

Atlanta, GA--Carroll, Pickens, Spalding, and Walton Counties.

Chicago, IL--DeKalb, Grundy and Kendall Counties.

Cincinnati-Hamilton, OH-KY-IN--Brown County, Ohio; Gallatin, Grant

and Pendleton Counties in Kentucky; and Ohio County, Indiana.

Dallas, TX--Henderson County.

Lafayette, LA--St. Landry and Arcadia Parishes.

New Orleans, LA--St. James Parish.

Washington, DC--Berkeley and Jefferson Counties in West Virginia;

and Clarke, Culpeper, King George and Warren counties in Virginia.

The proposed FMRs for the above counties are calculated separately

and are shown in Schedule B within their respective States under the

``Metropolitan FMR Areas'' listing.

New MSA: In addition, HUD is proposing FMR estimates for the newly

designated Hattiesburg, Mississippi MSA, which has been defined by OMB

to include Forrest and Lamar Counties. HUD has determined that the new

metropolitan area definition is an appropriate FMR area definition.

V. Method Used To Develop FMRs

FMR Standard

FMRs are gross rent estimates; they include shelter rent and the

cost of utilities, except telephone. HUD sets FMRs to assure that a

sufficient supply of rental housing is available to program

participants. To accomplish this objective, FMRs must be both high

enough to permit a selection of units and neighborhoods and low enough

to serve as many families as possible. The level at which FMRs are set

is expressed as a percentile point within the rent distribution of

standard quality rental housing units. The specific point rent (whether

it be the 45th or 40th percentile) is drawn from the distribution of

rents of units that are occupied by recent movers (renter households

who moved into their unit within the past 15 months). Adjustments are

made to exclude public housing units and newly built units less than

two years old.

Data Sources

HUD uses the most accurate and current data available to develop

the FMR estimates. Three sources of survey data are used to develop the

base-year estimates. They are: (1) the 1990 Census; (2) the Random

Digit Dialing (RDD) telephone surveys conducted of individual FMR areas

since the 1990 Census; and (3) the post-1990 American Housing Surveys

available at the time the FMR estimates were prepared. The base-year

FMRs have been updated using Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for rents

and utilities or the HUD regional rent change factors developed from

RDD surveys. Annual average CPI data are available individually for 103

FMR areas. RDD regional rent change factors are developed annually for

the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan parts of each of the 10 HUD

regions (a total of 20 separate factors). The RDD factors are used to

update the base-year estimates for all FMR areas that do not have their

own local CPI survey.

The decennial Census provides statistically reliable rent data for

use in establishing base-year FMRs. AHS's are conducted by the Bureau

of the Census for HUD and have comparable accuracy to the decennial

Census. These surveys enable HUD to develop between-census revisions

for the largest metropolitan areas on a revolving four-year cycle. The

RDD telephone survey technique is based on a sampling procedure that

uses computers to select statistically random samples of rental

housing, dial and keep track of the telephone numbers and tabulate the

responses. HUD uses a contractor to conduct the RDD surveys.

Calculation of 40th and 45th Percentile FMRs

This document proposes revised FMRs, which reflect estimated 40th

and 45th percentile rent levels trended to April 1, 1995. The base-year

estimates were updated through 1993 using the most current CPI or RDD

updating factors and then were trended to April 1, 1995 using the

annual trending factor of 3 percent. To ensure that the previously

approved modifications are carried forward, the 40th percentile FMRs

for the affected areas have been calculated by applying the 40th

percentile to 45th percentile ratio for the respective FMR area. The

difference between the 45th and 40th percentile FMRs is about 3 percent

on average; in no case is the difference greater than 6 percent.

The FMRs have been calculated separately for each bedroom size

category based on 1990 Census data. For most FMR areas, the ratios

developed from the Census for that area were applied to the two-bedroom

FMR estimate to derive the FMRs for the other bedroom size categories.

Exceptions were made for areas with local bedroom size rent intervals

below an acceptable range. For those areas the bedroom size intervals

selected were the minimums determined after outliers had been excluded

from the distribution of bedroom size ratios for all metropolitan

areas. Higher ratios continue to be used for three-bedroom and larger

size units than would result from using the actual market

relationships. This is done to assist the largest, most difficult to

house families in finding program-eligible units.

RDD Surveys

RDD surveys are used to obtain statistically-valid FMR estimates

for selected FMR areas. This survey technique involves drawing random

samples of one- and two-bedroom renter units occupied by recent movers.

Both one- and two-bedroom units are used because they are consistently

related and an accurate two-bedroom FMR estimate can be obtained with

fewer telephone calls by expanding the sample base to include

information on one-bedroom rents. The one-bedroom rents are adjusted by

the average two-bedroom to one-bedroom ratio for the area being

surveyed to convert them into two-bedroom equivalent rents.

RDD surveys exclude public housing units, units built in the past

two years and non-cash rental units. There is no practical way to

determine housing quality from telephone interviews. A HUD analysis

conducted specifically to address this issue, however, has shown that

the slightly downward RDD survey bias caused by including some rental

units that are in substandard condition is almost exactly offset by the

slightly upward bias that results from surveying only units with

telephones.

On average, about 8,000 telephone numbers need to be contacted to

achieve the target survey sample level of at least 400 eligible

responses. RDD surveys have a high degree of statistical accuracy.

There is a 95 percent likelihood that the recent mover rent estimates

developed using this approach are within 3 to 4 percent of the actual

rent value. Virtually all of the estimates will be within five percent

of the actual value.

Four of the RDDs conducted last year resulted in FMR estimates that

were lower than the FY 1994 FMRs. As HUD announced in the April 6,

1994, publication of the final FMRs, the surveys for these four areas

have been used to develop the FY 1995 proposed FMRs. The four areas

are: Holmes County, FL; Washington County, FL; Gage County, NE; and the

Jamestown, NY MSA.

In addition, the proposed FY 1995 FMRs for thirteen areas are based

on RDD surveys completed this year.

The survey results for six of the thirteen areas were within the

statistical confidence interval of the previous FMRs for both the 45th

and 40th percentile estimates. These six areas are Allentown-Bethlehem,

PA; Curry County, NM; Medford-Ashland, OR; McAllen-Edinburg, TX;

Wichita Falls, TX; and Wise County, VA. The calculations of the

proposed FY 1995 FMRs for these areas, therefore, are not affected by

the results of the RDD surveys.

For four FMR areas--Brownsville-Harlingen-San Benito, TX; Biloxi-

Gulfport-Pascagoula, MS; Lafayette, LA; and Richland-Kennewick-Pasco,

WA--the survey results indicated that the FMRs were too low, and larger

than normal increases are being proposed for both sets of FMRs.

For Reading, PA, the survey indicated that the FMRs were too high

and a small decrease is proposed in the 45th percentile FMRs for that

area. The 40th percentile survey rent, however, is within the

confidence interval and, therefore, the proposed FMRs are not affected

by the RDD.

For Roosevelt County, NM, a larger than normal increase is proposed

in the 45th percentile FMR, but the 40th percentile estimate is within

the confidence interval and, therefore, not affected by the RDD survey

results.

The FMRs for Las Cruces, NM are being proposed with a decrease in

both the 45th and 40th percentile FMRs based on the RDD survey results.

AHS Areas

AHSs cover the largest metropolitan areas on a four-year cycle.

These areas, in total, contain over half of the nation's rental housing

stock. Both the 45th and 40th percentile rents for these areas have

been calculated from the distributions of two-bedroom units occupied by

recent movers. Public housing units, newly constructed units and units

that fail a housing quality test were excluded from the AHS rental

housing distributions before the FMRs were calculated. The proposed FY

1995 FMRs incorporate the results of the 1992 AHSs for seven FMR areas.

Of these areas, five had survey rent estimates that were within the

statistical confidence interval of the previous FMRs: Birmingham, AL;

Cleveland-Lorain-Elyria, OH; Indianapolis, IN; Salt Lake City-Ogden,

UT; and Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, VA-NC. The calculation of

the proposed FY 1995 FMRs for these areas, therefore, was not affected

by the AHSs.

Two FMR areas--Memphis, TN-AR-MS and Oklahoma City, OK--are being

proposed for FMR decreases based on the 1992 AHS survey results.

VI. Request for Comments

HUD seeks public comments on FMR levels for specific areas.

Comments on FMR levels must include sufficient information (including

local data and a full description of the methodology used) to justify

any proposed changes. Changes may be proposed in any or all of the

bedroom-size categories on the schedule. Recommendations and supporting

data must reflect the rent levels that exist within the entire FMR

area.

PHAs that plan to use the RDD survey technique may obtain a copy of

the ``PHA Guide to Conducting a Fair Market Rent (FMR) Telephone

Survey'' by calling HUD USER on 1-800-245-2691. (For this year only,

PHAs should make sure that the RDD survey results show both the 45th

and 40th percentile rents.) The survey guide contains information on:

(1) how to decide whether to conduct a rent survey; (2) selecting a

contractor; and (3) monitoring the contract. In addition, there are

example copies of a request for bids letter and a contract package, the

survey questionnaire and interviewer training manual, and a detailed

explanation of the methodology. After a contract is awarded, these

surveys can normally be completed within two to three months. The

hardware and the timing of staff utilization require that RDD surveys

be conducted by contractors staffed with professional statisticians

experienced in this field.

Well-constructed RDD surveys are HUD's preferred method for

obtaining FMR estimates; however, use of these surveys is not mandated

where not cost effective or where alternative surveys with comparable

reliability are available and have been determined to be representative

of prevailing rent levels in the FMR area. Preferably, the survey

samples should be randomly drawn from a complete list of rental units

for the FMR area. If this is not a feasible alternative, the selected

sample must be statistically representative of the entire rental

housing stock of the FMR area. In particular, alternative surveys must

include units of all rent levels and be representative by structure

type (including single-family, duplex and other small rental

properties), age of housing unit, and geographic location. The

decennial Census should be used as a starting point and means of

verification for determining whether non-randomly drawn samples are

representative of the FMR area's rental housing stock.

Local rental housing surveys must show both the 45th and 40th

percentile gross rents (gross rent is rent including the cost of

utilities) and the actual distribution (or distributions if more than

one bedroom size is surveyed) of the surveyed units rank ordered by

gross rent. An explanation of how contract rents were converted to

gross rents must be included. The surveys must exclude units built

within two years prior to the survey date, and samples must not be

drawn solely from vacant units. Since the FMR standard data base uses

only standard quality units and units occupied by recent movers, both

of which are difficult to identify and survey, the Department will

accept surveys of all units and apply an appropriate adjustment.

Commenters must specify the date the rent data were collected so

that HUD can apply a trending factor to update the estimate to April 1,

1995. Survey data that are trended to the April 1, 1995 ``as of date''

of the FMRs must include information on the date the survey was

conducted, the amount of the trending factor and the source of the

trending data.

Rent surveys that cover only two-bedroom units are acceptable if

rent proposals for other size units are consistent with the HUD

differentials established on the basis of the 1990 Census data for the

area. When three- and four-bedroom units are surveyed, the following

procedure must be used to determine appropriate FMR proposals: (1)

Determine the 45th and 40th percentile rents for the three- and four-

bedroom units surveyed, (2) multiply the three-bedroom rents by 1.087,

and (3) multiply the four-bedroom rents by 1.077 to determine FMRs. The

use of these factors will produce the same upward adjustments in the

rent differentials by bedroom size as those applied to the rent

differentials for three- and four-bedroom units used in the HUD

methodology.

VII. Other Matters

A Finding of No Significant Impact with respect to the environment

required by the National Environmental Policy Act (42 U.S.C. 4321-4374)

is unnecessary, since the statutorily required establishment and review

of fair market rents is categorically excluded from the Department's

regulations implementing the National Environment Policy Act at 24 CFR

50.20(l).

The Secretary, in accordance with the Regulatory Flexibility Act (5

U.S.C. 605(b)), has reviewed this document before publication and by

approving it certifies that the Notice does not have a significant

economic impact on a substantial number of small entities because FMRs

reflect the rents for similar quality units in the area. Therefore,

FMRs do not change the rent from that which would be charged if the

unit were not in the Section 8 program.

The General Counsel, as the Designated Official under Executive

Order No. 12606, The Family, has determined that this proposal would

not have a significant impact on family formation, maintenance, or

well-being. The proposal would amend Fair Market Rent schedules for

various Section 8 assisted housing programs, and does not affect the

amount of rent a family receiving rental assistance pays, which is

based on a percentage of the family's income.

The General Counsel, as the Designated Official under section 6(a)

of Executive Order No. 12611, Federalism, has determined that this

proposal would not involve the preemption of State law by Federal

statute or regulation and would not have Federalism implications. The

Fair Market Rent schedules do not have any substantial direct impact on

States, on the relationship between the Federal Government and the

States, or on the distribution of power and responsibility among the

various levels of government.

The Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance program number is

14.156, Lower-Income Housing Assistance Program (Section 8).

Accordingly, the Fair Market Rent schedules, which will not be

codified in the Code of Federal Regulations, are proposed to be amended

as follows:

Section 8 Fair Market Rent Schedules for Use in the Rental Certificate

Program, Loan Management and Property Disposition Programs, Moderate

Rehabilitation Program, and Rental Voucher Program Schedules B & D--

General Explanatory Notes

1. Geographic Coverage

a. FMRs for the Section 8 Rental Certificate program (Schedule B)

are established, for Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), Primary

Metropolitan Statistical Areas (PMSAs), other HUD-designated

metropolitan FMR areas, for nonmetropolitan counties and county

equivalents in the United States, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and

the Pacific Islands. (The Pacific Islands include Guam, the Mariana

Islands, and the Trust Territories). FMRs also are established for

nonmetropolitan parts of counties in the New England states.

b. FMRs for Section 8 manufactured home spaces are established at

30 percent of the two-bedroom Section 8 Rental Certificate program

FMRs, with the exception of the areas listed in Schedule D, whose FMRs

have been modified on the basis of public comments. The FMR area

definitions used for the manufactured home spaces are the same as for

the Section 8 Rental Certificate program.

c. FMRs for the areas in Virginia shown in the table below are

established by combining the 1990 Census data for the nonmetropolitan

counties with the data for the independent cities that are located

within the county borders. Because of space limitations, the FMR

listing in Schedule B includes only the name of the nonmetropolitan

County. The full definitions of these areas including the independent

cities are as follows:

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Virginia nonmetropolitan Virginia independent cities included with

county FMR area county

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Allegheny............... Clifton Forge and Covington.

Augusta................. Staunton and Waynesboro.

Carroll................. Galax.

Frederick............... Winchester.

Greensville............. Emporia.

Halifax................. South Boston.

Henry................... Martinsville.

Montgomery.............. Radford.

Rockbridge.............. Buena Vista and Lexington.

Rockingam............... Harrisonburg.

Southhampton............ Franklin.

Wise.................... Norton.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. FMR Schedules

a. The FMR areas in Schedules B and D are listed alphabetically by

metropolitan FMR area and by nonmetropolitan county within each State.

Two Schedules are included in this publication. The first includes the

proposed FMR estimates at the 45th percentile level and the second

includes the FMR estimates at the 40th percentile level.

b. The constituent counties (and New England towns and cities)

included in each metropolitan FMR area are listed immediately following

the listings of the FMR dollar amounts. All constituent parts of an

metropolitan FMR area that are in more than one State can be identified

by consulting the listings for each applicable State.

c. Two nonmetropolitan counties are listed alphabetically on each

line of the nonmetropolitan county listings.

d. The New England towns and cities included in a nonmetropolitan

part of a county are listed immediately following the county name.

e. The FMRs are listed by dollar amount on the first line beginning

with the FMR area name.

Dated: June 13, 1994.

Henry G. Cisneros,

Secretary.

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