Australia: Climate Change Issues

December 14, 2022

Australia: Climate Change Issues

On a per capita basis Australians have the world’s 10th

largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions: according to the

World Bank, Australians emitted 15.2 metric tons of CO2

on a per capita basis in 2019. In 2019, Australia was the

16th largest emitter of all CO2 by country, accounting for

approximately 1.3% of the global total. Some experts note,

however, that Australia’s total CO2 emissions would be

closer to 4% of world emissions if Australia’s fossil fuel

exports are included. In 2021, Australia was the world’s

leading exporter of coal, accounting for 35.7% of the

world’s total coal exports, which was worth $43.9 billion.

Australia also is estimated to have the third largest reserves

of coal in the world, and is one of the world’s largest

exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

one-third of Australia’s population and accounts for around

one-third of the country’s economic output.

Figure 1. Change in Net Emissions of Major

Economies [Excluding Land Use, Land Use Change

and Forestry (LULUCF) and Agriculture Emissions]

Impact of Climate Change

Observers note that some impacts from human-induced

climate change, such as an increase in the frequency of

extreme heat events, are already occurring in Australia, and

they expect current changes to continue and intensify in the

future. Average annual temperatures for Australia have

warmed 1.4 degrees Celsius since 1910.

The year 2019 was the hottest and driest year on record in

Australia. The number of extreme fire risk days has grown

over the past four decades. “Black Summer” bushfires

during the 2019-2020 bushfire season killed 33 people

(with an additional 455 deaths attributed to bushfire

smoke), burned more than 65,000 square miles of land,

released an estimated 186 million tons of carbon into the

atmosphere, and killed or displaced close to an estimated 3

billion animals. One report indicated that the emissions

from these fires were more than Australia emits in a typical

year by burning fossil fuels. Another study found that the

annual area burned across Australia has been increasing

over the past three decades.

Eastern Australia experienced four major floods in the 18

months prior to July 2022. When touring flood-damaged

communities in New South Wales (NSW) in July 2022,

Prime Minister Albanese stated, “The science told us that if

we continued to not take action globally on climate change,

then these events, extreme weather events, would be more

often and more intense. And what we’re seeing,

unfortunately, is that play out.” The New South Wales

Climate Change Adaption Strategy states, “Climate change

has already altered day-today weather patterns (in NSW)

and increased extreme weather events ... with the state

warming faster than the global average. Since the preindustrial period, NSW has already warmed by 1.4-1.6°C

(CSIRO 2021) which is 1.4 times faster than the global

average.... This means that NSW is already experiencing

the impacts of climate change.” NSW is home to just under

The Great Barrier Reef, an important global carbon sink

and key part of Australia’s tourism sector, suffered mass

coral bleaching in 2016, 2017, and 2020 due to rising ocean

temperatures likely caused by climate change. While

Australia has long experienced drought, bushfires, and

flooding, projections indicate Australia will likely

experience increasing temperatures, as well as more severe

floods, coral bleaching, ocean acidification, droughts, and

bushfires, as a consequence of climate change.

Domestic Climate Politics

Australia has struggled to reconcile its economic reliance

on fossil fuels with the need to address climate change.

Australia’s position on climate change has been

transformed as a result of the May 2022 election, which

marked a shift to candidates favoring action on climate

change. Former Prime Minister Scott Morrison of the rightof-center Liberal-National Coalition famously brought a

lump of coal into parliament in 2017 and urged Australia to

not be afraid of coal. Morrison’s lack of action to address

climate change is seen as a key reason for his electoral

defeat by Anthony Albanese of the Australian Labor Party

(ALP), which won 77 of 151 seats in the House of

Representatives. “Teal” independents and the Green Party,

who urge more immediate action on climate change, also

made significant gains in the election. Labor campaigned

on a pledge to reduce carbon emissions by 43% by 2030

with a goal of net zero by 2050. (The United States has set a

target of 50%-52% reductions over 2005 levels in 2030.)

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Australia: Climate Change Issues

The Green Party’s standing in the Senate may further

influence climate change legislation. The Greens argue that

“Australia needs urgently to phase out fossil fuels for

export and domestic use” and achieve net zero greenhouse

gas (GHG) emissions by 2035. Labor will likely need the

support of the Greens to pass climate legislation in the

Senate. The Greens and independents may seek to leverage

this to get the ALP to set more ambitious emissions

reduction targets. Greens leader Adam Bandt has said he

wants a commitment for no new coal mines in Australia.

The ALP issued its report Powering Australia in the leadup to the May 2022 election. In that report, the ALP sets

forth its plan to reduce Australia’s GHG emissions while

creating jobs and reducing energy costs, and promises to

reduce emissions by boosting renewable energy and making

electric vehicles cheaper. Labor’s plan calls for increasing

the share of renewables in the National Electricity Market

to 82% by 2030. Labor also pledges to reduce the public

service’s emission to net zero by 2030 and to invest in a

New Energy Apprentices and New Energy Skills Program.

International Climate Politics

Australia’s relative inaction in addressing causes and

consequences of climate change under the previous LiberalNational Coalition government was not an asset in its

relations with Pacific Island Countries (PICs). In the 2018

Boe Declaration on Regional Security, Pacific Islands

Forum leaders reaffirmed that “climate change remains the

single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security and

wellbeing of the peoples of the Pacific and our commitment

to progress the implementation of the Paris Agreement.”

In an address to Pacific Island leaders, Australia’s new

Labor Party, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, discussed

Australia’s new approach to climate change. She stated,

“nothing is more central to the security and wellbeing of the

Pacific than climate change.... We have heard the Pacific

and we will act—standing shoulder to shoulder with the

Pacific as we address the climate crisis.” Australia’s shift

on climate change will likely help its relations with PICs at

a time of rising geopolitical tensions with China in the

region. It should also help facilitate the objectives of the

Partners in the Blue Pacific (PBP), an informal mechanism

of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and

the United States established in June 2022 to foster “more

effective and efficient cooperation in support of Pacific

Island priorities,” including the urgent challenge of

addressing climate change. Australia has increased its

climate finance commitment to AD$2 billion (US$1.37

billion) over the period 2020-2025, with AD$700 million

(US$481 million) of that figure to be spent on climate

adaptation and resilience, disaster preparedness, and

renewable energy projects in the Pacific.

Nationally Determined Contribution

(NDC)

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the

primary way in which countries who are parties to the Paris

Agreement (PA) communicate their own contribution to

meeting the goals of the PA. Under the former Morrison

government, Australia’s NDC committed to reducing

greenhouse gas emissions by 26%-28% below 2005 levels

by 2030. The ALP won the May 2022 election with a

platform that included a policy to reduce Australia’s

emissions by 43% by 2030 and to keep Australia on track to

reach net zero by 2050. In June 2022, the new Labor

government updated Australia’s NDC accordingly. One

climate advocacy group, the Climate Action Tracker, has

observed that while Labor has committed to significant

improvements over the previous government, “Australia

will need to adopt more ambitious climate policies and take

further action to (be) compatible with limiting warming to

1.5°C.... To achieve this the Albanese Government needs to

abandon its support for new fossil fuel projects.” Domestic

emissions reductions proposed by the Greens and Teal

independents align more closely with the 1.5 degree goal.

Approach to COP Negotiations

The previous Morrison government reportedly resisted

pressure to set more ambitious targets in the lead-up to the

UNFCCC annual Conference of Parties (COP26) in

Glasgow, United Kingdom, in 2021.The new Albanese

government is reportedly considering joining the global

methane pledge, which seeks a 30% reduction in methane

emissions by 2030 relative to 2020 levels. By some

estimates, 26% of Australia’s GHG emissions were from

methane in 2021. The ALP has declared its intention to bid

to co-host a future COP summit in Australia with Pacific

partner countries. The new ALP government’s shift to

undertake more action to address climate change will move

Australia more in line with international efforts at future

COP meetings. Further development of the Albanese

government’s position on climate change may well be

influenced by the Green Party and pro-climate action

independents, due to the political leverage they now have,

particularly in the Senate. Prime Minister Albanese

emphasized the importance of acting to address climate

change in his remarks to the Organization for Economic

Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris in July

2022.

Cooperation with the United States

The leaders of the United States, Australia, Japan, and India

launched a Quad Climate Change Adaptation and

Mitigation Package at their Tokyo meeting in May 2022.

The Quad Leaders Joint Statement following the meeting

recognized “the urgent need to address climate change as

emphasized in the latest IPCC reports,” adding, “we will

steadfastly implement the Paris Agreement and deliver on

the outcomes of COP26, accelerating our efforts to raise

global ambition, including reaching out to key stakeholders

in the Indo-Pacific region and supporting, strengthening,

and enhancing climate actions by partners in the region

including through mobilizing climate finance, both public

and private, and facilitating the research, development, and

deployment of innovative technology.” The Joint Statement

of the December 2022 Australia-U.S. Ministerial

Consultations (AUSMIN) emphasized the “need for urgent

action on climate change and the importance of a clean

energy transition, committing to pursue these as a new

pillar of the U.S.-Australia Alliance.”

Bruce Vaughn, Specialist in Asian Affairs

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Australia: Climate Change Issues

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