Endangered and Threatened Species; Withdrawal of Proposed Rule to List Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon and Fall Chinook Salmon as Endangered

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

50 CFR Parts 222 and 227

[Docket No. 971223310-7310-01; I.D. 101194C]

Endangered and Threatened Species; Withdrawal of Proposed Rule to

List Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon and Fall Chinook Salmon

as Endangered

AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.

ACTION: Proposed rule; withdrawal.

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SUMMARY: NMFS is withdrawing the proposed rule which published on

December 28, 1994, to reclassify Snake River spring/summer chinook

salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Snake River fall chinook salmon

(O. tshawytscha) from threatened to endangered under the Endangered

Species Act of 1973 (ESA). Events have taken place since the proposal

that make the reclassification action unnecessary. Increasing

abundance, combined with the effects of improved management, indicate

that the risks facing these species are now lower than they were at the

time of the proposal. While the status of these species has improved

since the proposal, conservation efforts must continue to recover Snake

River chinook salmon to sustainable levels.

DATES: This proposed rule is withdrawn on January 12, 1998.

ADDRESSES: Environmental and Technical Services Division, NMFS,

Northwest Region, 525 NE Oregon Street--Suite 500, Portland, OR 97232-

2737.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Garth Griffin, NMFS, Protected

Resources Division, Northwest Region, telephone (503) 231-2005, or Joe

Blum, NMFS, Office of Protected Resources, telephone (301) 713-1401.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Background

12, 1998.

ADDRESSES: Environmental and Technical Services Division, NMFS,

Northwest Region, 525 NE Oregon Street--Suite 500, Portland, OR 97232-

2737.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Garth Griffin, NMFS, Protected

Resources Division, Northwest Region, telephone (503) 231-2005, or Joe

Blum, NMFS, Office of Protected Resources, telephone (301) 713-1401.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Background

In response to a June 1990 petition to list under the ESA Snake

River chinook salmon, NMFS prepared status review reports for Snake

River spring and summer chinook salmon (Matthews and Waples, 1991) and

Snake River fall chinook salmon (Waples et al., 1991) providing

detailed information, discussion, and references relevant to the level

of risk faced by the species, including historical and current

abundance, population trends, distribution of fish in space and time,

and other information indicative of the health of the population.

NMFS proposed listing Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon (56

FR 29542) and Snake River fall chinook salmon (56 FR 29547) as

threatened on June 27, 1991. The final determination listing Snake

River spring/summer chinook salmon and Snake River fall chinook salmon

as threatened was published on April 22, 1992 (57 FR 14653), and

corrected on June 3, 1992 (57 FR 23458). The decision to list was based

in part on a determination that the populations constituted

evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) pursuant to NMFS' policy on

applying the ESA species definition to Pacific salmon published on

November 20, 1991 (56 FR 58612). Critical habitat was designated for

Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon and Snake River fall chinook

salmon on December 28, 1993 (58 FR 68543)

to list was based

in part on a determination that the populations constituted

evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) pursuant to NMFS' policy on

applying the ESA species definition to Pacific salmon published on

November 20, 1991 (56 FR 58612). Critical habitat was designated for

Snake River spring/summer chinook salmon and Snake River fall chinook

salmon on December 28, 1993 (58 FR 68543).

In an emergency rule published in the Federal Register on August

18, 1994 (59 FR 42529), NMFS determined that the status of Snake River

spring/summer chinook salmon and the status of Snake River fall chinook

salmon warranted reclassification to endangered, based on projected

declines and continued low abundance levels of adult chinook salmon.

Under the ESA (16 U.S.C. 1533(b)(7)) and its implementing regulations

at 50 CFR 424.20(a), an emergency rule ceases to have force after 240

days unless additional actions are taken.

NMFS published a proposed rule to reclassify Snake River spring/

summer and Snake River fall chinook salmon as endangered on December

28, 1994 (59 FR 66784), and solicited comments from peer reviewers, the

public, and interested parties.

After the proposed reclassification, a moratorium on listing

actions was enacted by Congress which precluded work on this action. As

a result of the moratorium and associated delays in its listing

actions, NMFS prioritized its pending listing actions, with

reclassifications receiving a low priority. NMFS has now assessed

comments and information received in response to the proposed rule. A

summary of this information, along with NMFS' analysis and conclusions

follows.

Summary of Comments

precluded work on this action. As

a result of the moratorium and associated delays in its listing

actions, NMFS prioritized its pending listing actions, with

reclassifications receiving a low priority. NMFS has now assessed

comments and information received in response to the proposed rule. A

summary of this information, along with NMFS' analysis and conclusions

follows.

Summary of Comments

One hundred fifty-four written comments were received in response

to the proposed rule to reclassify Snake River chinook salmon as

endangered. NMFS has considered all comments received, including oral

testimony from two public hearings (60 FR 7744, February 9, 1995) on

the proposal. The majority of comments received voiced opposition to

the proposed rule on the basis of potential economic impacts of the

designation and questions regarding NMFS' jurisdiction over Snake River

spring/summer and fall chinook salmon. Only four of these comments

contained information of a technical nature relevant to NMFS' status

determination. Several commenters provided information pertinent to

research needs and recovery planning; information of this type will be

addressed in the

recovery plan for these species and is not addressed here.

Under a joint U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/NMFS policy published

July 1, 1994 (59 FR 34270), NMFS solicits the expert opinion of three

appropriate and independent specialists regarding the pertinent

scientific or commercial data and assumptions relating to the taxonomy,

population models, and supportive biological and ecological information

for species under consideration for listing. Accordingly, NMFS

solicited independent review from the following experts: Dr. Lyle

Calvin, Oregon State University; Dr. Jack Stanford, University of

Montana; and Dr. Ray Hilborn, University of Washington. Comments were

received from Dr. Stanford regarding the proposed rule.

Consideration of Economic and Jurisdictional Factors

ological information

for species under consideration for listing. Accordingly, NMFS

solicited independent review from the following experts: Dr. Lyle

Calvin, Oregon State University; Dr. Jack Stanford, University of

Montana; and Dr. Ray Hilborn, University of Washington. Comments were

received from Dr. Stanford regarding the proposed rule.

Consideration of Economic and Jurisdictional Factors

Comment: Numerous commenters stated that the potential economic

impacts of these Snake River spring/summer and fall chinook salmon

listings have not been properly addressed.

Response: In determining whether to list a species as threatened or

endangered, ESA implementing regulations 50 CFR 424.11(b) clearly state

that such decisions must be made ``solely on the basis of the best

available scientific and commercial information regarding a species'

status, without reference to possible economic or other impacts of such

a determination.'' Therefore, in making its listing determination, NMFS

did not consider the economic impacts associated with the listing

action. However, during the process of designating critical habitat and

identifying recovery measures, economic considerations are (and have

been) taken into account. With regard to Snake River spring/summer and

fall chinook salmon, descriptions of such analyses can be found in the

final rule designating critical habitat published on December 28, 1993

(58 FR 68543).

Comment: Numerous commenters questioned NMFS' jurisdiction in

dealing with matters in the state of Idaho.

Response: Under section 4(a)(1) of the ESA, the Secretary of

Interior and the Secretary of Commerce (Secretaries) have authority to

implement the ESA to protect and conserve threatened and endangered

species. Authority for commercial fishery species (i.e., salmon

species) management was transferred to the Department of Commerce from

the Department of Interior under Reorganization Plan No. 4 of 1970

se: Under section 4(a)(1) of the ESA, the Secretary of

Interior and the Secretary of Commerce (Secretaries) have authority to

implement the ESA to protect and conserve threatened and endangered

species. Authority for commercial fishery species (i.e., salmon

species) management was transferred to the Department of Commerce from

the Department of Interior under Reorganization Plan No. 4 of 1970.

Therefore, based on the ESA and this Reorganization Plan, NMFS retains

ESA jurisdiction over Snake River spring/summer and fall chinook

salmon.

Consideration as a Species

Comment: Several commenters contended that Snake River spring/

summer and fall chinook salmon are likely to be ``subspecies'' of a

species which is abundant in other portions of its range. Therefore,

neither Snake River spring/summer nor fall chinook salmon should be

considered a ``species'' under the ESA.

Response: In the final determination listing Snake River spring/

summer and fall chinook as threatened under the ESA (57 FR 14653, April

22, 1992), NMFS determined that Snake River spring/summer and fall

chinook salmon constitute ``species'' under the ESA. The present

determination has no effect on the earlier determination. Section 3(15)

of the ESA defines a ``species'' as including ``any subspecies of fish

or wildlife or plants, and any distinct population segment of any

species of vertebrate fish or wildlife which interbreeds when mature.''

NMFS' final policy on how it will apply the ESA ``species'' definition

in evaluating Pacific salmon was published on November 20, 1991 (56 FR

58612).

Further guidance on the application of this policy is contained in

the NMFS policy paper ``Pacific Salmon and the Definition of 'Species''

Under the Endangered Species Act'' (Waples 1991). NMFS' determination

is consistent with this policy and guidance.

Factors Contributing to the Decline of Snake River Spring/Summer

and Fall Chinook Salmon

was published on November 20, 1991 (56 FR

58612).

Further guidance on the application of this policy is contained in

the NMFS policy paper ``Pacific Salmon and the Definition of 'Species''

Under the Endangered Species Act'' (Waples 1991). NMFS' determination

is consistent with this policy and guidance.

Factors Contributing to the Decline of Snake River Spring/Summer

and Fall Chinook Salmon

Comment: The majority of commenters identified specific factors

that they believe to be responsible for causing the decline of these

species. Many contended that mortality associated with dams on the

Columbia and Snake Rivers has been the primary cause for decline, while

others identified poor ocean conditions, in-river harvest, and

predation as major factors for decline. Several commenters took

exception to NMFS identifying mining as a factor for the species'

decline.

Response: NMFS agrees that there are a variety of factors which

have contributed to the decline of these species. In the proposed rule

to reclassify Snake River spring/summer and fall chinook as endangered

(59 FR 66784, December 28, 1994), NMFS identified a range of factors

which have contributed to the decline of these species including:

Hydropower development, water withdrawal and storage, irrigation

diversions, siltation and pollution from sewage, farming, grazing,

logging, mining, harvest and hatchery impacts, predation, and drought.

NMFS recognizes that, for some of these human-induced factors, steps

have been taken by Federal, state, and private entities to identify and

reduce adverse impacts on Snake River chinook salmon. NMFS is hopeful

that continued attention to these factors will ultimately result in the

recovery of Snake River chinook salmon.

Comment: Numerous commenters insisted that declines in Snake River

spring/summer and fall chinook salmon have occurred as a result of

natural evolutionary processes

al, state, and private entities to identify and

reduce adverse impacts on Snake River chinook salmon. NMFS is hopeful

that continued attention to these factors will ultimately result in the

recovery of Snake River chinook salmon.

Comment: Numerous commenters insisted that declines in Snake River

spring/summer and fall chinook salmon have occurred as a result of

natural evolutionary processes.

Response: The proposed rule to reclassify Snake River spring/summer

and fall chinook salmon from threatened to endangered was based on the

biological status of the species. Assessing the source or cause (either

natural or manmade) of a species' decline does not affect the outcome

of NMFS' status determination but, instead, focuses remedial action on

those factors which contribute to the threat to the species. With

respect to the commenters' concern, NMFS is unaware of scientific

research which supports the claim that these species have declined

primarily as a result of natural evolutionary processes. Available

research has documented that mortality resulting from human activities

has significantly contributed to the decline of these species.

Therefore, NMFS believes that human activities, and not natural

evolutionary processes, are the primary factors which have led to the

decline of Snake River chinook salmon.

Existing Regulatory Mechanisms

Comment: Several commenters contended that existing state and

Federal regulations are sufficient to guarantee that no adverse impacts

to water quality or habitat will occur in the Snake River basin.

Similarly, several commenters stated that management practices have

improved such that further degradation of salmon habitat will not

occur.

Response: NMFS believes that, since Snake River spring/summer and

fall chinook salmon were proposed for reclassification as endangered

species, progress has been made in improving salmon management,

passage, harvest, and habitat conditions in the Columbia and Snake

River systems

rs stated that management practices have

improved such that further degradation of salmon habitat will not

occur.

Response: NMFS believes that, since Snake River spring/summer and

fall chinook salmon were proposed for reclassification as endangered

species, progress has been made in improving salmon management,

passage, harvest, and habitat conditions in the Columbia and Snake

River systems. All of these improvements have likely resulted in

increased survival by juvenile and adult Snake River chinook salmon.

Further discussion of this issue is provided

under ``Summary of Factors Affecting the Species.''

Evaluating the Status of Snake River Spring/Summer and Fall Chinook

Salmon

The state of Alaska, Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) submitted a

report which addresses several issues pertaining to the proposed

reclassification of Snake River fall chinook salmon (ADFG, 1995). In

its report, ADFG asserts that an analysis of the following factors

should occur prior to reclassification: escapement, likelihood of

extinction, probability of persistence with respect to survival,

spawner/recruit relationship, and forecasts of adult returns. These

comments also apply to the proposed reclassification of Snake River

spring/summer chinook salmon since similar risk assessment methods were

used for this species. A discussion of the major points in the comments

submitted by ADFG follows.

Comment: ADFG concluded that reclassifying Snake River fall chinook

salmon from threatened to endangered is not warranted because the

species has increased in abundance since the time the species was

listed as threatened.

Response: NMFS agrees that since the time of this proposal, Snake

River spring/summer and fall chinook salmon have increased in

abundance. Below we present a brief summary of recent returns of Snake

River spring/summer and fall chinook salmon. Table 1 summarizes this

abundance data:

warranted because the

species has increased in abundance since the time the species was

listed as threatened.

Response: NMFS agrees that since the time of this proposal, Snake

River spring/summer and fall chinook salmon have increased in

abundance. Below we present a brief summary of recent returns of Snake

River spring/summer and fall chinook salmon. Table 1 summarizes this

abundance data:

Table 1.--Summary of Snake River Spring/Summer and Fall Chinook Adult Returns at Lower Granite Dam

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Spring/summer

Spring/summer chinook Fall chinook Fall chinook

Year chinook total naturally- total adult naturally-

adult returns spawning returns spawning

escapement escapement

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1994P........................................... 3,915 1,721 774 406

1995............................................ 1,799 1,116 1,042 350

1996............................................ 6,823 3,487 1,270 639

1997............................................ 45,082 E 6,500 E 2,100 E 726

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P = Proposed rule published on December 28, 1994.

E = Estimated return (Personal Communication, Robert Bayley, NMFS 1997; TAC 1997b).

Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon Abundance

........... 6,823 3,487 1,270 639

1997............................................ 45,082 E 6,500 E 2,100 E 726

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P = Proposed rule published on December 28, 1994.

E = Estimated return (Personal Communication, Robert Bayley, NMFS 1997; TAC 1997b).

Spring/Summer Chinook Salmon Abundance

In 1994 when NMFS proposed reclassifying Snake River spring/summer

chinook salmon as endangered, total adult returns (hatchery-origin and

naturally-spawning) of this species to Lower Granite Dam were 3,915

(FPC 1995). (Dam counts at Lower Granite Dam are typically used as an

indicator for Snake River salmon escapement since this is the uppermost

fish counting ladder in the Snake River.) In 1995, subsequent to the

proposed listing, total adult returns to Lower Granite Dam were 1,799

(FPC 1996). In 1996, total adult returns to Lower Granite Dam increased

to 6,823 (FPC 1997), about 1.7 times greater than 1994 returns. More

recently, total returns of spring/summer chinook have increased

substantially. In 1997, a total of 45,082 spring/summer chinook adults

have returned to Lower Granite Dam (U.S. Army Core Of Engineers (COE),

1997), about 11 times greater than 1994 returns.

In 1994, at the time of the proposed reclassification, 1,721

naturally spawning spring/summer chinook salmon escaped past Lower

Granite Dam, while in 1995, escapement decreased to 1,116 naturally

spawning adults past Lower Granite Dam (Technical Advisory Committee

(TAC) 1997a). In 1996, escapement increased to 3,487 (TAC, 1997a),

about 2 times greater than 1994 escapement. Estimates indicate that

about 6,500 naturally spawning spring/summer chinook will escape past

Lower Granite Dam in 1997 (Personal Communication, Robert Bayley, NMFS

1997; TAC 1997b).

Fall Chinook Salmon Abundance

spawning adults past Lower Granite Dam (Technical Advisory Committee

(TAC) 1997a). In 1996, escapement increased to 3,487 (TAC, 1997a),

about 2 times greater than 1994 escapement. Estimates indicate that

about 6,500 naturally spawning spring/summer chinook will escape past

Lower Granite Dam in 1997 (Personal Communication, Robert Bayley, NMFS

1997; TAC 1997b).

Fall Chinook Salmon Abundance

In 1994 when NMFS proposed reclassifying Snake River chinook salmon

as endangered, total adult returns of fall chinook (hatchery-origin and

naturally spawning) to Lower Granite Dam numbered 774 (FPC, 1995).

Adult returns to Lower Granite Dam in 1995 numbered 1,042 (FPC, 1996),

about 1.3 times greater than 1994 returns. This increasing trend

continued in 1996, with a total adult return of 1,270 at Lower Granite

Dam (FPC, 1997)--about 1.6 times greater than 1994 returns. Estimates

indicate that about 2,100 fall chinook will return to Lower Granite Dam

in 1997 (Personal Communication, Robert Bayley, NMFS, 1997; TAC 1997b).

In 1994, at the time of the proposed reclassification, 406

naturally spawning, fall chinook salmon escaped past Lower Granite Dam

(TAC, 1997c). In 1995, escapement decreased to 350 naturally-spawning

fall chinook past Lower Granite Dam (TAC, 1997c). In 1996, 639

naturally spawning chinook salmon escaped past Lower Granite Dam (TAC,

1997c). Estimates indicate that in 1997, about 726 naturally-spawning

fall chinook salmon will escape past Lower Granite Dam (Personal

Communication, Robert Bayley, NMFS, 1997; TAC, 1997b).

Comment: In addition to comments regarding recent escapement, ADFG

concluded that the risk for Snake River fall chinook salmon extinction

(as measured by stochastic forecasts based on observed escapement) has

declined since the initial listing of this species. The ADFG also

commented on the difficulty of reproducing results of a ``likelihood-

of-extinction'' model cited in the Snake River fall chinook salmon

status review (Waples et al., 1991)

capement, ADFG

concluded that the risk for Snake River fall chinook salmon extinction

(as measured by stochastic forecasts based on observed escapement) has

declined since the initial listing of this species. The ADFG also

commented on the difficulty of reproducing results of a ``likelihood-

of-extinction'' model cited in the Snake River fall chinook salmon

status review (Waples et al., 1991).

Response: NMFS agrees that extinction risk for Snake River fall

chinook salmon has decreased since 1994 due to conservation efforts and

based on recent increased run sizes.

NMFS acknowledges that, due to a slight data error, the Dennis et

al. model results reported in the NMFS' status review are difficult to

reproduce. However, independent analyses provide estimates very similar

to those cited in NMFS' status review (Cramer and Neeley, 1993).

Comment: ADFG concluded that forecasts for future adult fall

chinook salmon run size cited in the reclassification proposal have

significantly underestimated the actual escapements past Lower Granite

Dam. Further, ADFG stated that these projections have so underestimated

actual escapements that the use of these data is inconsistent with the

ESA requirement to use the best available scientific and commercial

data when a listing decision is made.

Response: Contrary to ADFG's comments, NMFS believes that projected

natural-origin escapements have not significantly underestimated actual

escapements. Based on run reconstruction data developed by the Columbia

River Technical Advisory Committee established under U.S. v. Oregon,

the 1994 Snake River fall chinook salmon run size at Lower Granite Dam

was estimated to range from 269 to 488 adults (CRTS, 1994). Actual

escapement past Lower Granite Dam in 1994 was estimated to be 406

adults (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) and Oregon

Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW), 1995)

lumbia

River Technical Advisory Committee established under U.S. v. Oregon,

the 1994 Snake River fall chinook salmon run size at Lower Granite Dam

was estimated to range from 269 to 488 adults (CRTS, 1994). Actual

escapement past Lower Granite Dam in 1994 was estimated to be 406

adults (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) and Oregon

Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW), 1995). NMFS agrees, however,

that it would be unwise to base a species status reclassification, such

as this rulemaking, solely on the results of predictive models which

are sensitive to unforeseeable environmental conditions.

Comment: ADFG derived estimates of the number of spawners needed to

produce maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and maximum return ranging from

440 and 570 adult spawners above Lower Granite Dam, and estimated that

escapements on the order of 1,000 adults would produce strong returns.

Response: While the estimates presented by ADFG appear reasonable

given the data that were used, NMFS questions ADFG's treatment of the

data in deriving these estimates. In addition, ADFG did not present any

confidence intervals for its estimates of MSY. NMFS' previous

experience with similar analyses suggests that such confidence

intervals would be quite large; hence, conclusions regarding this

analysis must be viewed as highly uncertain.

Comment: ADFG raised several concerns regarding stray hatchery fish

and the genetic integrity of the Snake River fall chinook salmon ESU.

The ADFG stated that, based on dilution models, the gene pool of the

progeny of wild fish is likely different today than it was a few years

ago.

Response: NMFS has not attempted to verify the results presented by

ADFG for its dilution model, but agrees that unidirectional gene flow

(from non-ESU stocks into the listed ESU) results in a dilution of the

native gene pool

d

and water management activities would likely result in long-term

improvements in survival of adult and juvenile chinook salmon, but that

such improvements had not yet been realized.

NMFS now concludes that migration conditions in the Columbia and

Snake Rivers have improved since the time of listing due to increased

spill and natural flow, as well as physical modifications to mainstem

dams. For example, seven of eight Columbia and Snake River mainstem

dams now have bypass systems through which outmigrating juvenile Snake

River chinook salmon can pass more safely. Also, through the

implementation of the proposed Snake River Salmon Recovery Plan,

additional spill and flow augmentation have occurred during the

juvenile outmigration.

Since the listing of Snake River chinook salmon, NMFS has

undertaken numerous consultations on activities in the region. Examples

of such activities include timber and grazing permits issued by the

U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management, dredge and fill

activities authorized by COE, and licensing of hydroelectric projects

by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Benefits of these actions

include the following: Between 1991 and 1995, there has been a net loss

of 622 miles of roads (sources of sediment) in nine Idaho National

Forests; all irrigation diversions in critical habitat located in the

state of Washington have been screened; and NMFS has successfully

settled one of the largest Comprehensive Environmental Response,

Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) claims in the history of the

statute (Blackbird Mine), which will eventually result in reopening

over 100 miles of spawning habitat historically used by chinook salmon

in Idaho.

B. Overutilization for Commercial, Recreational, Scientific, or

Educational Purposes

At the time of the proposed reclassification, NMFS stated that

several measures had been taken between 1991 and 1993 to reduce

incidental harvest rates on Snake River fall chinook salmon to

approximately 50 percent

in reopening

over 100 miles of spawning habitat historically used by chinook salmon

in Idaho.

B. Overutilization for Commercial, Recreational, Scientific, or

Educational Purposes

At the time of the proposed reclassification, NMFS stated that

several measures had been taken between 1991 and 1993 to reduce

incidental harvest rates on Snake River fall chinook salmon to

approximately 50 percent. However, continued and projected low returns

indicated that these efforts had not reversed the decline of the

species.

Since the proposed rule, returns of Snake River chinook have

increased. This indicates that impacts from commercial and recreational

fisheries have decreased. Commercial and recreational fisheries in the

Columbia River basin remain restricted to low levels relative to

previous years. For example, the Southeast Alaska troll fishery for

fall chinook salmon was substantially curtailed in both 1995 and 1996.

Current restrictions in this fishery have resulted in a catch of about

80,000 fewer chinook than early 1990 quotas. Furthermore, Canada has

taken steps to substantially reduce its fisheries off the west coast of

Vancouver Island and in other areas. Also, through the Columbia River

Fisheries Management Planning process, harvest on spring/summer and

fall chinook salmon has been set with specific constraints based on

Snake River salmon run size. As an example, recent agreements regarding

fall chinook salmon harvest in Columbia River fisheries will ensure

under most circumstances that harvest rates achieve a 30-percent

reduction relative to the 1988-93 average Snake River fall chinook

harvest rate.

As stated in the proposed reclassification, there are a number of

scientific research programs which involve handling, tagging, and

moving fish in the Columbia and Snake Rivers. However, NMFS believes

that the contribution of these programs to the decline of listed Snake

River chinook salmon is negligible.

C

nt

reduction relative to the 1988-93 average Snake River fall chinook

harvest rate.

As stated in the proposed reclassification, there are a number of

scientific research programs which involve handling, tagging, and

moving fish in the Columbia and Snake Rivers. However, NMFS believes

that the contribution of these programs to the decline of listed Snake

River chinook salmon is negligible.

C. Disease or Predation

Chinook salmon are exposed to numerous bacterial, protozoan, viral,

and parasitic organisms; however, these organisms' impacts on Snake

River chinook salmon are largely unknown.

Predator populations, particularly northern squawfish

(Ptychocheilus oregonensis), have increased due to hydroelectric

development that created

impoundments providing ideal predator foraging areas. Turbulent

conditions in dam turbines, bypasses, and spillways have increased

predator success by stunning or disorienting passing juvenile salmon

migrants. Increased efforts to reduce populations of northern squawfish

should result in survival improvements of listed salmon, but the

benefits are not yet fully known.

Marine mammal numbers, especially harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) and

California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), are increasing on the

West Coast, and increases in predation by pinnipeds have been noted in

some Northwest salmonid fisheries. Since the time of this proposed

reclassification, NMFS has published a report describing the impacts of

California sea lions and Pacific harbor seals upon salmonids and on the

coastal ecosystems of Washington, Oregon, and California (NMFS, 1997d).

This report concludes that in certain cases where pinniped populations

co-occur with depressed salmonid populations, salmon populations may

experience severe impacts due to predation. An example of such a

situation is Ballard Locks, Washington, where sea lions are known to

consume significant numbers of adult winter steelhead

tal ecosystems of Washington, Oregon, and California (NMFS, 1997d).

This report concludes that in certain cases where pinniped populations

co-occur with depressed salmonid populations, salmon populations may

experience severe impacts due to predation. An example of such a

situation is Ballard Locks, Washington, where sea lions are known to

consume significant numbers of adult winter steelhead. This study

further concludes that data regarding pinniped predation is quite

limited, and that substantial additional research is needed to fully

address this issue. Existing information on the seriously depressed

status of many salmonid stocks is sufficient to warrant actions to

remove pinnipeds in areas of co-occurrence where pinnipeds prey on

depressed salmonid populations (NMFS 1997).

D. The Inadequacy of Existing Regulatory Mechanisms

In the proposed reclassification, NMFS stated that improvements in

existing regulatory mechanisms had been made since the original listing

of Snake River chinook. However, due to projected declines in abundance

during the 1991 through 1993 period, NMFS believed that regulatory

mechanisms which were in place were inadequate.

NMFS now concludes that since the time of listing, existing

regulatory mechanisms have improved. For example, regulations aimed at

improving river flow and juvenile acclimation for upper Columbia River

fall chinook salmon are believed to have reduced straying impacts on

listed fall chinook populations. Commercial and recreational harvest

regulations have been implemented which appear to be minimizing the

impacts of these actions on Snake River chinook. A single scientific

advisory body (Independent Scientific Group) has been established to

address Columbia River Basin scientific issues. A result of this

board's formation should be to streamline the management and decision-

making process with respect to Snake River salmon issues

gulations have been implemented which appear to be minimizing the

impacts of these actions on Snake River chinook. A single scientific

advisory body (Independent Scientific Group) has been established to

address Columbia River Basin scientific issues. A result of this

board's formation should be to streamline the management and decision-

making process with respect to Snake River salmon issues. Furthermore,

implementation of the proposed Snake River Salmon Recovery Plan has

begun; finalization of this document in 1997 will provide a clear

direction for the region in achieving recovery of its Pacific salmon

stocks.

E. Other Natural or Manmade Factors Affecting Its Continued Existence

Drought conditions have contributed to the decline of Snake River

chinook salmon; however, these conditions have subsided in recent

years. In the Northwest, annual mean streamflows for the 1977 water

year (October to September) were the lowest recorded for many streams

since the late nineteenth century (Columbia River Water Management

Group (CRWMG), 1978). Precipitation levels in the Snake River Basin

above Ice Harbor Dam also were below the 25-year average (1961-1985) in

the 1979, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1988, and 1990 water years. The 1990 water

year became a fourth consecutive year of drought condition (CRWMG,

1991). Drought conditions persisted in the Columbia River basin during

the period of 1990 to 1994. However, changes in weather patterns in

1995, 1996, and 1997 have resulted in above average rainfall for Snake

and Columbia River basins.

Long-term trends in marine productivity associated with atmospheric

conditions in the North Pacific Ocean may have a major influence on

salmon production. Unusually warm ocean surface temperatures and

associated changes in coastal currents and upwelling, known as El Nino

conditions, result in ecosystem alterations such as reductions in

primary and secondary productivity and changes in prey and predator

species distributions

tivity associated with atmospheric

conditions in the North Pacific Ocean may have a major influence on

salmon production. Unusually warm ocean surface temperatures and

associated changes in coastal currents and upwelling, known as El Nino

conditions, result in ecosystem alterations such as reductions in

primary and secondary productivity and changes in prey and predator

species distributions. The degree to which adverse ocean conditions can

influence Snake River chinook salmon production is not known; however,

juvenile salmon adapting to the nearshore ocean environment are

probably particularly vulnerable.

Artificial propagation has, in some cases, impacted listed Snake

River spring/summer chinook salmon. Potential problems associated with

hatchery programs include genetic impacts on indigenous wild

populations from stock transfers, reduced natural production due to

collection of wild adults for hatchery brood stocks, competition with

wild salmon, predation of wild salmon by hatchery salmon, and disease

transmission.

Changes have been made in many chinook salmon hatchery programs

which should decrease the impacts associated with artificial

propagation. For example, measures have been taken to reduce straying

of Umatilla River fall chinook hatchery stock into the Snake River.

These measures include increasing river flows, marking all hatchery-

raised fish, and acclimating stocks in the Umatilla River prior to

their release. NMFS continues to monitor, evaluate, and refine changes

that have been made to chinook salmon hatchery programs. This process

should help ensure that hatchery programs do not impede recovery of

these stocks.

Finding and Withdrawal

Snake River.

These measures include increasing river flows, marking all hatchery-

raised fish, and acclimating stocks in the Umatilla River prior to

their release. NMFS continues to monitor, evaluate, and refine changes

that have been made to chinook salmon hatchery programs. This process

should help ensure that hatchery programs do not impede recovery of

these stocks.

Finding and Withdrawal

At the time the reclassification proposal was made, Snake River

spring/summer chinook salmon and Snake River fall chinook salmon

appeared to be near critically low abundance levels. However, since

that time, the abundance of both stocks has increased. These increases,

combined with the effects of improved management, indicate that the

risks facing these species are now lower than they were at the time of

the reclassification proposal. Based on this information, NMFS

concludes that reclassification of Snake River spring/summer and fall

chinook salmon from threatened to endangered is not warranted at this

time. Therefore, NMFS withdraws the proposed rule to reclassify Snake

River spring/summer and fall chinook salmon as endangered under the

ESA. NMFS will continue to closely monitor the status of these species

as well as evaluate the effectiveness of existing and future protective

and conservation measures to determine whether a change in the status

of either species is warranted in the future.

References

A complete list of all references cited is available upon request

(see ADDRESSES).

Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1531 et seq.

Dated: January 5, 1998.

Rolland A. Schmitten,

Assistant Administrator for Fisheries, National Marine Fisheries

Service.

[FR Doc. 98-622 Filed 1-9-98; 8:45 am]

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