Paroling, Recommitting, and Supervising Federal Prisoners: Revision of the Salient Factor Score

DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE

Parole Commission

28 CFR Part 2

Paroling, Recommitting, and Supervising Federal Prisoners:

Revision of the Salient Factor Score

AGENCY: Parole Commission.

ACTION: Proposed rule.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: The U.S. Parole Commission is proposing to revise the Salient

Factor Score at 28 CFR 2.20. The Salient Factor Score which is an

actuarial table that the Commission uses to measure the potential risk

of parole violation. This revision is designed to improve the accuracy

of the Salient Factor Score with respect to older offenders. The

Commission is proposing to add one point to a prisoner's total score if

the current offense (or parole violation) was committed at age 41 or

older, provided the prisoner does not already have the highest possible

total score (10). This revision will give to the Salient Factor Score

improved risk prediction accuracy. The revision is made appropriate by

the fact that the Parole Commission has jurisdiction over an aging

population of prisoners and parolees whose crimes were committed prior

to November 1, 1987.

DATES: Comments must be received by June 12, 1995.

ADDRESSES: Send comments to Office of General Counsel, U.S. Parole

Commission, 5550 Friendship Blvd., Chevy Chase, Maryland 20815. For

further information contact: Pamela A. Posch, Office of General

Counsel, Telephone (301) 492-5959.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Salient Factor Score at 28 CFR 2.20 is

an actuarial device, based upon statistical research, that permits the

U.S. Parole Commission to make a prediction as to the probability of

future parole violation. It is applied to every prisoner who appears

for an initial parole hearing, and to every parolee who has been

returned to prison as a parole violator. The current version of the

Salient Factor Score (SFS-81) was adopted in 1981, and was recently re-

validated through a study of the parole records of federal prisoners

released in 1987. This and other validation studies have shown that the

Salient Factor Score is able to separate prisoners into categories

having significantly different probabilities of recidivism, and that it

continues to have a high degree of predictive accuracy.

However, with the aging of the Parole Commission's ``old law''

offender population, it has become apparent that the accuracy of the

Salient Factor Score could be improved by accounting for the factor of

``age at current offense'' in the case of older offenders and parole

violators. (The U.S. Parole Commission's jurisdiction is limited to

offenders whose crimes were committed prior to November 1, 1987. See

Section 235 of the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, which appears as an

Editorial Note to 18 U.S.C. 3551.)

The Commission has long recognized that many criminal offenders

eventually ``burn out'' as the aging process catches up with them. In a

1984 study by the Commission's Research Office, entitled ``Burnout--Age

At Release From Prison and Recidivism'', it was found that recidivism

rates do decline with increased age, and that it would be justifiable

to improve the scores of prisoners whose current offense was committed

at age 41 or older. At the present time, the average age of the ``old

law'' prison population is 43. Thus, it has now become appropriate to

consider adding this factor to the score.

In order to test the accuracy of the proposed revision, the revised

score was applied to a sample of over 1,000 federal

prisoners released in 1987. Approximately 5% of those prisoners

received an improved parole prognosis category placement as compared

with the current version of the score (SFS-81). Moreover, the revised

version of the score displayed a high degree of predictive accuracy.

The Mean Cost Rating increased from .54 to .56, the highest recorded

for a recidivism prediction device that has been subjected to

validation.

Accordingly, the Commission has decided that the Salient Factor

Score should be revised, in order to ensure that the Commission's

decisions are based upon the most accurate available risk-prediction

device. This decision accords with the intent of Congress that the

Parole Commission should ``* * * continue to refine both the criteria

which are used (to judge the probability that an offender will commit a

new offense) and the means for obtaining the information used

therein.'' 2 U.S. Code Cong. and Admin. News at 359 (1976).

Implementation

The revised Salient Factor Score (SFS-95) would be applied at every

initial parole hearing and revocation hearing held on or after the

effective date of the final regulation, and retroactively to federal

prisoners who have already been heard for parole or reparole, at the

next scheduled statutory interim hearing under 28 CFR 2.14 and any

hearing under Sec. 2.28 or Sec. 2.34.

Executive Order 12866 and Regulatory Flexibility Statement

The U.S. Parole Commission has determined that this proposed rule

is not a significant rule within the meaning of Executive Order 12866,

and the proposed rule has, accordingly, not been reviewed by the Office

of Management and Budget. The proposed rule, if adopted, will not have

a significant economic impact upon a substantial number of small

entities, within the meaning of the Regulatory Flexibility Act, 5

U.S.C. 605(b).

List of Subjects in 28 C.F.R. Part 2

Administrative practice and procedure, probation and parole,

prisoners.

Accordingly, the U.S. Parole Commission proposes the following

amendment to 28 CFR part 2.

The Proposed Amendment

(1) The authority citation for 28 CFR part 2 continues to read as

follows:

Authority: 18 U.S.C. 4203(a)(1) and 4204(a)(6).

(2) 28 CFR part 2 Sec. 2.20 is proposed to be amended by adding an

instruction to the Salient Factor Scoring Manual under a new Item G as

follows:

ITEM G. If CURRENT OFFENSE WAS COMMITTED AT AGE 41 OR OLDER, ADD 1

POINT IF THE TOTAL SCORE DETERMINED ABOVE IS 9 OR LESS.

This instruction would add a seventh item to the current six-item

score, without changing its current structure as a prediction device

with possible scores ranging from 0 to 10 points. (A point would not be

added if the total score is already 10, placing the offender at the top

of the ``very good'' parole prognosis category.) As in any case, the

Commission will exercise authority to override the prediction made by

the revised score if case-specific factors indicate undiminished risk

despite advancing age, eg, the career criminal offender who has played

a leadership role in organized crime.

Dated: March 31, 1995.

Edward F. Reilly, Jr.,

Chairman, U.S. Parole Commission.

[FR Doc. 95-8912 Filed 4-10-95; 8:45 am]

BILLING CODE 4410-01-P