Puyallup Tribe of Indians (2016)

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DRAFT

Climate Change

Impact Assessment

and Adaptation

Options

Puyallup Tribe of Indians

2016

Acknowledgments

This assessment would not have been possible without the tremendous contributions of many individuals, listed

below.

Project Team

Mary Basballe, Air Quality Department

Bill Sullivan, Environmental Department

Special thanks to the following Tribal staff

Paul Arnold, GIS

Mary Brown, Water Quality

Joanne Gutierrez, Housing

Russ Ladley, Fisheries

Rory Laducer, Public Safety

Connie McCloud, Youth & Culture

Barb Moeller, Wildlife

Char Naylor, Water Quality

Michael Polly, GIS

Jeffrey Thomas, Forestry

Brandon Reynon, Historic Preservation

George Stearns, Shellfish

Andrew Strobel, Transportation & Planning

Angela Tate, Realty

Elsie Wescott, Water Quality

David Winfrey, Shellfish

Recommended Citation Format

Puyallup Tribe of Indians. 2016. Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options. A collaboration of

the Puyallup Tribe of Indians and Cascadia Consulting Group.

Prepared for the Puyallup Tribe by

Cascadia Consulting Group

Letter of Introduction

Placeholder for letter from Tribal leader or council.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments

Letter of Introduction

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Introduction

Methodology

Climate Impacts and Projections

Temperature

Precipitation and Streamflow

Wildfire

Flooding

Stream Temperature

Landslides and Sediment Transport

Sea Level Rise

Ocean Acidification

Sector-Specific Impacts

Fisheries, Hatcheries, and Forage Fish

Shellfish

Wildlife

Water Quality

Cultural Resources and Traditions

Transportation

Public Health and Safety

Adaptation Options

Existing Programs and Plans

Adaptation Approaches

Appendix A. Terms and Definitions

Appendix B. Additional Maps

Appendix C. Bibliography

SECTION TITLE

EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

Executive Summary

From 2015 to 2016, the Puyallup Tribe worked with Cascadia Consulting Group to conduct a Climate Change

Impact Assessment and identify options for adaptation. The assessment aimed to help Tribal staff and members

better understand and prepare to proactively manage climate risks to ensure that Tribal customs and the Tribal

community can thrive for many generations to come, despite a changing climate.

How is the climate changing?

Changes in the climate have been observed already, including the following:

•

Average annual temperatures for the Pacific Northwest have risen 1.3°F since 1895. One of the

implications has been a longer frost-free season.

•

The cumulative area of Mt. Rainier’s glaciers decreased -27% between 1913 and 1994.

•

Sea level has risen by 7.8 inches in our region over the last century.

•

Ocean pH has already dropped by about 30% as the oceans absorb increasing amounts of carbon

dioxide.

The climate will continue to change into the future as the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse

gas emissions in the atmosphere continues to rise. Specific anticipated changes include:

•

Average temperatures in Washington State could rise as much as 9.4°F above current levels by 2100.

The most significant temperature increases are anticipated to occur in the summer months.

•

Total annual precipitation in the Pacific Northwest is not projected to change substantially, but heavy

rainfall may be more frequent and intense, and summer precipitation may decrease.

•

More rain and less snow will fall in the winter.

•

Stream temperatures in the Pacific Northwest are protected to increase 1°F over 1980 averages by

2020 and 3°F by 2080.

•

Flooding may become more common and more intense in places like the Puyallup River.

•

With warmer, drier summers, more wildfires are expected.

•

Landslides are likely to become more frequent in winter and spring as precipitation rates and soil

moisture increase during these months.

•

By 2050, some areas of Washington State could see as much as 19 inches of sea level rise over 2000

levels; by 2100, the increase could be up to 56 inches.

•

Sea level rise combined with storm surge and high tides can cause more frequent flooding events,

coastal erosion, loss or shifting of habitat, and saltwater intrusion into water sources.

•

Ocean acidification is expected to increase by 38 to 109% by 2100 relative to 2005 levels.

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

What impacts might we see locally?

The assessment focused on eight key resources or sectors. Some of the anticipated impacts of climate change in

these sectors include the following:

•

Fisheries and hatcheries: Warmer stream temperatures and summer lower flows can alter salmon

migration timing, reduce growth rates, and increase vulnerability to toxins, parasites, and diseases.

Increased winter high-flow events can scour the streambed, increasing the risk of egg mortality.

•

Shellfish: Ocean acidification makes it more difficult for shellfish including oysters, clams, mussels, and crabs

to form and maintain their shells. Rising sea levels can reduce the extent of habitats like estuarine beaches;

where shorelines are armored, it can be impossible for intertidal zones to shift and adapt, thereby reducing

habitat for the species that depend on these zones.

•

Wildlife: Warming temperatures and precipitation changes will alter the survival, distribution, and

seasonality of some wildlife and game species.

•

Restoration sites: Restoration sites may be affected by rising sea levels and other climate change impacts.

They also help to build resilience by protecting important ecosystem functions and habitats.

•

Water quality: Lower summer precipitation and higher temperatures can concentrate pollutants in

waterways.

•

Cultural resources and archaeological sites: The accessibility and availability of traditional plants, roots,

and other resources may change as distributions and habitats of species shift. Cultural sites along the

waterfront or near rivers may experience more frequent and more intense flooding, which may temporarily

or permanently inundate some places and limit access.

•

Transportation: Many of the Tribe’s important transportation routes lie in areas at risk of flooding or

landslides.

•

Public health and safety: Heat waves, changes in air quality, foodborne illness, and other changes

associated with climate change will present new threats to the health and safety of our Tribal members,

particularly the young and the elderly and those with existing health conditions.

What can we do to build resilience?

While the Tribe is already undertaking a number of programs that will help to build resilience, even if they weren’t

designed with climate change in mind, additional action will be needed to protect resources, infrastructure, and

people as the climate continues to change. Tribal staff therefore developed a shortlist of potential adaptation

measures for further consideration and evaluation. These options are presented at the end of the document, and

they fall into five broad categories:

Implement protection, restoration, and management practices

Provide education and guidance

Reevaluate policies, plans, and protocols

Gather additional information

Leverage partnerships

Introduction

As the climate changes, higher temperatures, rising sea levels, changes in precipitation, and other projected

impacts will have far-reaching implications for the resources, livelihoods, and health of the Puyallup Tribal

community. The Tribe has nearly 4,000 members today, many of whom live on the reservation. By planning

ahead, the Tribe can help ensure that Tribal customs and traditions thrive for many generations to come. This

report describes how climate change could affect our people and our resources and how we can take steps to

build our resilience.

We already have experience with climate variability, and we can therefore begin to anticipate problems we could

face in the future. In 2015, for example, we experienced challenges similar to those anticipated to occur more

often in a future changing climate, including hotter temperatures, reduced snowpack, and increased wildfire

risk.

Climate change also interacts with other stressors that are already affecting our Tribal resources, including

population growth, development, and pollution. Our people have lived in this area for thousands of years. Today,

the Puyallup reservation is highly urbanized; the cities of Edgewater, Federal Way, Fife, Milton, Puyallup, and

Tacoma have grown around us and overlap, to some degree, with our reservation land. Therefore, through this

assessment we also sought to understand how climate change can exacerbate some of these existing issues.

This report provides a picture of where we have been, where we are now, and where we are heading. It

combines the latest climate knowledge for the region with input from Tribal staff and members, and it presents

key projected impacts as well as actions that will build resilience of our Tribe. The report is organized into the

following sections:

•

Methodology

•

Climate Impacts and Projections

•

Sector-Specific Impacts

•

Adaptation Options

The appendices include a glossary of climate terms,

additional maps, and citations.

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

Methodology

The Tribe’s Environmental Department spearheaded this effort, supported by a team of consultants. We sought to engage

program staff from a range of other departments, such as Transportation, Air Quality, Water Quality, Fisheries, Languages,

Cultural Resources, Housing, and GIS.

Based on input from program staff who attended the kick-off meeting in April 2015, we focused this assessment on how

climate change impacts could affect particular resources and sectors (see text box).

We began with a compilation of climate science and projections for the region to understand how changes in sea level,

precipitation, and temperature will affect Tribal people, resources, traditions, and infrastructure. The analysis included a

spatial assessment of particular areas that may be most at-risk from sea level rise and storm surge.

We conducted interviews and three workshops with Tribal staff to assess current and potential vulnerabilities to climate

variability and change related to the priority resources and sectors. We also consulted scientific literature from local and

regional sources to supplement these findings.

This report does not represent the end of this process. Rather, it gives us a foundation from which to begin building our

resilience to climate change impacts and to educate our Tribal staff, members, and youth about what the future may

hold and what we can do to prepare. We intend to revisit and update this report in the future as new information about

climate change becomes available and as we continue to clarify our own needs and priorities. The adaptation options

that are listed are a promising starting point. These options will benefit from additional discussion and evaluation to help

develop a comprehensive plan that has broad support from across the Tribal community.

Priority Resources and Sectors

Fisheries and hatcheries

Shellfish

Wildlife

Restoration sites

Water quality

Cultural and archaeological sites

Transportation

Public health and safety

Climate Impacts

and Projections

Defining the Puyallup Tribe’s vulnerability to climate impacts begins with understanding how the climate is

projected to change in southern Puget Sound. This section summarizes projections of potential climate threats

facing the Puyallup Tribe of Indians. To provide broader context and fill gaps in local data, we also provide an

overview of impacts affecting Washington State and the Pacific Northwest more broadly.

The climate impacts information and projections discussed below represent the best available information from

well-known and trusted datasets, literature, and studies. Conditions for 2050 and beyond will depend upon

economic trends, policy decisions, and technological developments in the coming decades. The long-term

projections can still be valuable tools for long-range and strategic planning.

Additionally, while the climate is changing, natural climate variability will continue to affect our region and

dominate what we observe over the next few decades and, thus, should also be considered when assessing local

impacts.

A Changing Climate

Anthropogenic (human-caused) greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase over the next 100 years.

The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has almost doubled since before the Industrial

Revolution, from 280 parts per million (ppm) to the current concentration of 400 ppm.* “Business as usual”

global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which assume no significant change in current trends, predict that

atmospheric CO2 could reach levels as high as 936 ppm by 2100.[1]

To determine how these projections will manifest at regional scales, researchers use global and regional

climate models that reflect future emissions scenarios. Models often take into account changes in population,

technology, and other factors that influence anthropogenic emissions rates. This report draws from the

conclusions of numerous studies based on the most up-to-date global emissions scenarios referred to as

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change in 2014. This report also includes studies based on the Special Report of Emissions Scenarios (SRES),

which preceded the RCP scenarios and were used in climate modeling research conducted between 2000 and

2013. Many of these studies were undertaken by scientists affiliated with the University of Washington Climate

Impacts Group.

[*] Monthly average concentrations in carbon dioxide vary due to seasonal and monthly variations in carbon dioxide emissions from human

and natural sources (e.g., plant respiration). For example, monthly values in 2014 ranged between 395.26 ppm (Sept 2014) and 401.78

ppm (May 2014). The highest monthly mean value reported to date since measurements began at Mauna Loa in March 1958 is 407.7 ppm

(May 2016).

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Temperature

Average annual temperatures for the Pacific Northwest have risen 1.3°F since 1895.[2] This change has resulted in a

longer frost-free season and increases in nighttime heat waves over the last century, particularly during winter, fall,

and summer.[3, 4] Figure 1 below shows the warming trend in average annual temperature in the Pacific Northwest

since 1895.

Figure 1. Average annual temperatures (solid red line) since 1895 in the Puget Sound region.

Dashed line indicates the warming trend. Source: UW Climate Impacts Group 2015.[5]

Projections suggest warming will occur across all four seasons in the Pacific Northwest over the 21st century,

but the most significant increases are anticipated to occur in the summer months. Temperature projections for

Washington State under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) show that average temperatures could rise as much as

9.4°F above current levels by 2100.[6] Table 1 below shows projected increased temperature ranges by the 2050s

for the Puyallup area.

Table 1. Projected increase in average annual temperature by 2050 (relative to 1980) for

Puyallup under low and high emissions scenarios. Source: UW Climate Impacts Group 2015.[7]

Emissions Scenario

Low emissions (RCP 4.5)

Projected Increase

+4.2°F (range: 2.8 to 5.7°F)

High emissions (RCP 8.5)

+5.5°F (range: 4.3 to 7.3°F)

While summer months are projected to see the largest increases in average temperatures, winter months will see

an increase in minimum temperatures and the number of frost-free days.[4] The frost-free season for this region

has lengthened steadily since 1895 and is expected to continue increasing throughout the 21st century.[8] Figure 2

shows the increasing trend in the duration of the frost-free season between 1895 and 2010.[2] Meanwhile, the area

of Mt. Rainier’s glaciers decreased -27% between 1913 and 1994.[9]

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& PROJECTIONS

Figure 2. Extension in the frost-free season for the Northwest U.S. between 1895 and 2010.

Source: Kunkel et al. 2013.[8]

Precipitation and Streamflow

Scientists project slight increases in winter, spring, and fall precipitation and decreases in summer precipitation

(see Table 2).[10] Total annual precipitation in the Pacific Northwest is not projected to change substantially, but

occurrences of heavy rainfall may be more frequent and intense.[5]

Table 2. Projected decrease in average summer precipitation by 2050 (relative to 1950-1999)

under low and high emissions scenarios. Source: Mote et al. 2013.[11]

Emissions Scenario

Low emissions (RCP 4.5)

High emissions (RCP 8.5)

Projected Decrease in Summer Rainfall

-6%

-8%

More precipitation will fall as rain during winter months, and snow will melt earlier in the year, resulting in a

shorter snow season and earlier peak streamflow.[12] This trend is shown in Figure 3 below, which depicts estimated

changes in the magnitude and timing of streamflow for the Puyallup watershed in 2020, 2040, and 2080.

Figure 3. Monthly graph of streamflow estimated for the Puyallup watershed over three time periods (2020, 2040, and 2080). Changes are

relative to historical flows over the 1916-2006 time period. Source: UW Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project.[13]

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Figure 4. Shifts in watershed classification compared to historical averages

Records for Washington’s Cascade Range show that average

for the Pacific Northwest under two future emissions scenarios. (Snow

water equivalent, SWE, is a measure of the amount of water contained in

snowpack declined throughout the 20th century.[14] Climate

snowpack.) Source: Tohver et al. 2014.[16]

projections suggest that snowpack will continue to decline in

the Pacific Northwest; Figure 4 below illustrates the projected

shift from snow-dominant to rain-dominant watersheds.[15]

Note that under the moderate emissions scenario (A1B), there

is a total loss of snow-dominant basins in the Cascades by the

2080s.[16

Increases in temperature, declining summer precipitation, and

reduced snowpack will alter ecosystem composition and health

and increase wildfire risk. Extended periods of drought are

thought to be among the largest contributing climatic factors

in declining forest health observed across the globe.[17] In the

Pacific Northwest, research shows that a decline in snowpack

is having considerable health impacts on cedars, indicated by

stunted growth patterns.[18] Rising winter air temperatures

could lead to delayed leaf emergence in Douglas fir due to an

inability to meet winter chilling requirements.[5] These changes

will likely reduce the area of climatically suitable habitat for

Douglas fir in lower elevations of the south Puget Sound region

by the end of the 2060s.[5]

Wildfire

According to the Washington State Department of Natural

Resources, the declines in forest health noted above can

contribute to more frequent and widespread wildfires.[19]

Climate change will increase fire activity across the Puget

Sound region, including in areas previously unaffected by fire.

[5]

Past fire records show a strong correlation between warm,

dry summers and higher rates of area burned in the Pacific

Northwest.[20] Drought and warm temperatures combine

to lower moisture content in both live and dead fuels and

increase flammability.[20] Scientists attribute the extensive

wildfires throughout Washington State in 2015 to the summer drought during that season.[21]

Research suggests that the area burned west of the Cascade crest could more than double by the late 21st century.[5]

Further research is needed to fully understand how changing climate conditions may alter wildfire risk and severity in

the region.[5]

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Flooding

Higher annual temperatures, changes in precipitation, and resulting changes in snowpack and streamflow will

alter downstream flood regimes. For example, snowmelt runoff or rain-on-snow events can cause flooding

downstream when warmer winter temperatures rapidly melt thick snow cover or increase the amount of

precipitation falling as rain instead of snow.[22]

While more research is needed to assess any specific flood-related impacts or risks to the Puyallup Tribe,

regional modeling simulations suggest an increasing flood risk for most areas of the Pacific Northwest. The

Puyallup River watershed is already among the highest flood risk areas in the state of Washington (see current

FEMA-designated flood hazard areas in Figure 5 below and Figure 14 in Appendix B).[23, 24] The Tribe’s Public

Safety office has noted incidents of repeated flooding in Lower Clear Creek and along the basin near River

Road. According to the UW Climate Impacts Group, most models show that the volume of water during the

historical 100-year flood event (or a flood with an annual probability of 1%) is expected to increase by the 2040s,

suggesting that what are already the most extreme flooding events in the region will become even more intense.

[7]

Table 3 below shows the increases in water volume of 100-year flood events in the Puyallup watershed based

on two emissions scenarios.

Table 3. Projected increases in water volume associated with 100-year flood events in the Puyallup Watershed by 2040 (relative to 1980)

under low and moderate emissions scenarios. Source: UW Climate Impacts Group 2015.[7]

Emissions Scenario

Projected Water Volume

Low emissions (B1)

Moderate emissions (A1B)

+39% (range: -14 to +85%)

+56% (range: +22 to +115%)

The frequency of “atmospheric rivers”—a band of water vapor transport from the tropics and a significant driver

of flooding in the Pacific Northwest—will also likely be different with climate change. Climate projections and

modeling simulations for the Pacific Northwest indicate that severe precipitation events caused by atmospheric

rivers will become more common and severe in the Puget Sound region.[25] Analysis of the flooding event in

January 2012 suggests that the extensive flooding was driven by a combination of increased sediment loads in

streams and extreme rainfall brought on by an atmospheric river (see the Landslides and Sediment Transport

section below for information on the impacts of increased sediment).[26, 27]

Although heavier winter rainfall is expected, climate models do not project a change in wind speed or strength

of low-pressure systems in the Puget Sound region.[28]

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Figure 5. Current FEMA flood hazard areas (see Figure 14 in Appendix B for a more detailed map).

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Stream Temperature

Stream temperatures will rise in conjunction with rising air temperatures throughout the Puget Sound

region, including in the Puyallup watershed.[29] Modeling simulations on the correlation between air and

stream temperature show that stream temperature rises approximately 2.8°F for every 3.5°F increase in air

temperature.[30] Climate models project that stream temperatures in the Pacific Northwest will increase 1°F

over 1980 averages by 2020 and 3°F by 2080.[31] These increases may be more pronounced at lower elevations,

where rivers tend to slow and widen and where air temperatures are warmer. Projected mean August stream

temperatures projected for the Puyallup watershed region in 2040 range from 7 to 22°C (45 to 72°F) as shown

in Figure 6. Table 4 below shows projected temperatures for streams in or near the Puyallup reservation. All

streams except Canyonfalls Creek are projected to be within the range for increased disease risk in adult salmon

(see Table 5 for a list of salmonid temperature thresholds).

Table 4. Projected 2040 average August stream temperatures for selected streams in the Puyallup Tribal region.

Source: US Forest Service Regional Database and Modeled Stream Temperatures.[32]

Stream

North Fork Clover Creek

Clover Creek

Puyallup River

Hylebos Creek

Clarks Creek

Wapato Creek

Carbon River

White River

Clear Creek

West Hylebos Creek

Swam Creek

Fennel Creek

Canyonfalls Creek

2040 Projected August Stream

Temperature (°C)

16.5

16.4

16.3

16.2

16.1

15.8

15.5

15.1*

*All streams except Canyonfalls Creek are projected to be within the range for increased disease risk in adult salmon.

Table 5. Salmonid temperature thresholds. Source: National Wildlife Federation 2011.[33]

Salmonid Temperature Thresholds

<58.1°F (<14.5°C)

59.9–67.1°F (15.5–19.5°C)

68.9–70.7°F (20.5–21.5°C)

>70.7°F (21.5°C)

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

Optimal range for salmon spawning, rearing, and migrating

Range for increased disease risk in adult salmon

Threshold for adult salmon mortality

Threshold for juvenile salmon mortality

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Figure 6. Projected average August stream temperatures for the Puyallup watershed region in 2040 (A1B moderate emissions scenario). Source:

US Forest Service Regional Database and Modeled Stream Temperatures.[32]

Landslides and Sediment Transport

While specific landslide risk projections based on future climate scenarios for the Puyallup Reservation are not currently

available, landslides are likely to become more frequent in winter and spring as precipitation rates increase during these

months, thereby increasing soil moisture content. Incidence of drought followed by severe rainfall events—a combination

that climate projections suggest will become more common[34]—increase landslide risk in communities located in or

adjacent to hilly topography, including downstream and downslope areas (see current landslide hazard areas in Figure 7

below). Landslide risk is projected to decline during summer months, however, as summers become drier and hotter.

Puyallup Tribal infrastructure and facilities

that are already in or near landslide hazard zones include:

•

Diru Creek Hatchery

•

Some smokeshops and convenience stores on River Road

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Figure 7. Current landslide hazard areas (see Figure 15 in Appendix B for a more detailed map).

Landslides, declining snowpack, receding glaciers, and heavy rainfall events will increase sediment loads in

waterways and alter streambank erosion and accretion.[35] Sea level rise and extreme storms will accelerate

sediment-driven erosion and accretion along coastlines, affecting wildlife and marine species such as salmon

that rely on shoreline sedimentation and habitat.[36, 37] According to a 2015 analysis by the UW Climate Impacts

Group, loss of snowpack and glaciers due to warming temperatures will contribute to increased flood flows

in the Puyallup watershed and will expedite sediment flow.[7] Increased incidence of wildfires can also lead to

greater sediment and debris flow, as root cohesion diminishes and soil composition changes after a fire.[38]

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Sea Level Rise

Rates of sea level rise across Washington State are highly dependent on vertical land movement from plate

tectonics, thermal expansion of water, seasonal wind patterns, and sedimentation. By 2050, some areas of the

state could see as much as 19 inches of sea level rise over 2000 levels; by 2100, the increase could be up to 56

inches.[39] Table 6 below shows projected sea level rise for Washington, Oregon, and northern California by 2030,

2050, and 2100.

Table 6. Sea level rise projections relative to year 2000 for Washington, Oregon, and northern California.

Projections (middle column) represent A1B moderate emissions scenario projections,

while ranges (right column) represent average B1 (lower emissions) and A1F1

(higher emissions) scenario projections. Source: Department of Ecology 2012.[40]

Year

2030

2050

2100

Projection

(in inches)

+2.6

+6.5

+24

Range

(in inches)

-2 to +9

-1 to +19

+4 to +56

Sea level rise combined with storm surge and high tides can cause more frequent flooding events, coastal erosion,

loss or shifting of habitat, and saltwater intrusion into water sources. Figure 8 and Figure 9 on the following pages

show Puyallup Reservation and Tribal facilities that are projected to be exposed to intermittent flooding during

extreme high tides in 2050 and 2100 respectively, using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Note that these

illustrations of potential flooding areas are based purely on ground surface elevation and do not account for the

presence or absence of water flow pathways. More detailed depictions of these maps are provided in Appendix B

(Figure 12 and Figure 13).

Puyallup Tribal infrastructure and facilities that could be at risk

of flooding during extreme high tides include:

In 2050:

•

Emerald Queen Riverboat (old casino) on Alexander Avenue

•

Marine facilities such as Chinook Landing, the 11th Street

boat ramp, and Ole & Charlie’s Marina

•

Some stores on Pacific Highway East

In 2100, those listed above, plus:

•

Emerald Queen Ballroom

•

Puyallup Tribal Integrative Medicine (PTIM) building

•

Several convenience stores and smoke shops on Pacific Highway

East, as well as a few on 54th Avenue East and Alexander Avenue

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Figure 8. Tribal-owned facilities (green dots) projected to be at risk of flooding during extreme high tides in 2050. Dark blue areas are

already below base flood elevation (BFE). Light blue are below BFE with 19 inches of sea level rise (the high-range estimate for 2050).

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Figure 9. Tribal-owned facilities (green dots) projected to be at risk of flooding during extreme high tides in 2100. Dark blue areas are

currently below base flood elevation (BFE). Light blue are below BFE with 56 inches of sea level rise (the high-range estimate for 2100).

Ocean Acidification

As anthropogenic sources of atmospheric greenhouse gases have steadily increased since the Industrial

Revolution, the oceans have absorbed more CO2, effectively raising concentrations of dissolved CO2 and lowering

the pH of the oceans by about 30%.[41] While there are no projections for ocean acidification specifically for

Washington State, Table 7 shows projected global increases in ocean acidification by emissions scenario.

Table 7. Projected increases in global ocean acidification by 2100 relative to 2005 levels, by emissions scenario.

Source: UW Climate Impacts Group.[7]

Emissions Scenario

Low emissions (RCP 4.5)

High emissions (RCP 8.5)

Projected Increase in Ocean Acidification

+38 to +41%

+100 to +109%

Washington State’s marine habitats are particularly at risk of the impacts of ocean acidification due to naturally

occurring offshore upwelling processes that transport nutrient-rich yet corrosive water usually found at lower

depths to shallower waters along the continental shelf.[42] These corrosive waters reach closer to the surface

in the spring, summer, and early fall, limiting the ability of organisms such as clams, oysters, mussels, and

pteropods (a key marine food source) to form shells.[43] Recordkeeping of pH levels in Puget Sound, which began

in 2008, shows an overall trend of increased corrosive conditions; however, slight variations have occurred yearto-year and in specific locations within the Sound.[43]

Other contributing factors to ocean acidification include hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen) and nutrient runoff

from urban and agricultural lands.[44] In hypoxic sections of Hood Canal, for example, eutrophication (excessive

nutrients and resulting algal blooms) has increased acidification through the respiration of organic material.

[43]

Stratification (where water with different properties form layers that impede water mixing) is spatially and

temporally variable in Puget Sound, with the most persistent and strong stratification found in Hood Canal,

Whidbey Basin, and parts of south Puget Sound.[43]

These effects have already altered the development of shellfish in parts of Puget Sound, and they are projected

to inhibit shellfish development more severely into the future.[43, 45]

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

Sector-Specific

Impacts

This section describes the ways in which the changes in climate summarized in the previous chapter could affect

sectors and resources of particular importance to the Puyallup Tribe.

Fisheries, Hatcheries, and Forage Fish

Our Tribal members and staff expect that climate change will result in important impacts to local fish habitat and

Tribal fisheries infrastructure, including hatcheries. Simultaneous increases in water temperature and decreases in

water availability could create conditions that increase diseases and associated fish health risks, affecting hatchery

operations and increasing fish kills.[10] A recent study at the Winthrop National Fish Hatchery in eastern Washington

found that projected hatchery environmental conditions remained within the general physiological tolerances for

Chinook salmon in the 2040s (under the A1B moderate emissions scenario). Still, warmer water temperatures in

summer accelerated juvenile salmon growth, increasing the likelihood of physiological stress due to anticipated

decreases in water availability during those months.[46]

The Puyallup Tribe’s two hatcheries both use groundwater or spring water, which are cooler sources than surface

water. These hatcheries are therefore less vulnerable than some others in the region. However, the fish released

from the hatcheries still need to swim downstream through sun-exposed river stretches that are projected to

present warmer temperatures.

Warmer ocean waters and ocean acidification will also affect fishery production. Scientists have found that a +1.8°F

increase in sea surface temperature—the warming projected for the northeast Pacific Ocean by the 2040s—could

reduce salmon species survival from northern California to southeast Alaska by 1 to 4%.[28] Other important fish

species will be subject to diminishing food availability as corrosive waters disrupt the ability of some organisms to

develop shells and skeletons.

Climate change will also affect habitats and health of a range of aquatic organisms, including those not managed

in fisheries or hatcheries. Coastal erosion and inundation from sea level rise, for example, will dramatically alter

intertidal ecosystems and landscapes, changing the extent and composition of tidal wetlands, eelgrass beds, and

estuaries.[47] One study of Puget Sound found that sea level rise will increase tidal flat area overall but will reduce

estuarine beach, brackish marsh, tidal swamp, and tidal freshwater marsh area. Tribal staff have already observed

disappearing mudflats resulting from development, pollution, and storms.

Altered streamflows will also bring changes to the landscape, including alterations to sediment delivery and

deposition in wetland habitats—processes that are critical for maintaining wetland habitats as sea level rises.

Although we anticipate sediment supplied from rivers to increase under future climate conditions, it is not known

what proportion of that sediment will reach estuaries and whether it will be sufficient to offset sea level rise

inundation.[28]

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Dikes and dams within fish-bearing streams can exacerbate climate impacts on fish habitat and survival. After

the 1930 flood, the Puyallup River was diked to control future flooding. The dike resulted in a loss of 14 miles of

river. Recently, oxbows were reintroduced to improve salmon habitat. Management actions to minimize habitat

loss in areas where dikes and dams remain will support climate resilience of instream habitat.

Other non-climate stressors, such as increased development in and around the Puyallup Reservation, will

exacerbate climate change impacts on fisheries, hatcheries, and forage fish habitat. Tribal members and staff

emphasized that hard beach-armoring infrastructure, such as sea walls, can be detrimental to organisms such as

forage fish that rely on the water-land interface. Culverts and other hard stormwater infrastructure components

can impede fish migration and degrade habitat quality. Low levels of shading along local waterways, such as

from development, further increases instream water temperature. Studies show that the loss of shade from the

replacement of forests and agricultural land with urbanization can raise stream temperatures by an additional

4°F.[48]

To address flood risks on local hatcheries, the Tribe’s Fisheries and Environmental departments recently worked

with Washington State Emergency Management and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to

stabilize the riverbank at a fish hatchery near Buckley. In response to the 2009 flood, this $1 million project

incorporated natural bank stabilizers such as logs and woody debris instead of cement banks and riprap to slow

water flow through the river and provide more habitat for fish. Projects such as these will help ensure that our

fish populations can withstand current and future risks from extreme events.

Salmon-specific vulnerabilities

Salmon in Puget Sound are already at risk from a range of different stressors. At the Tribe’s 2014 First Fish

ceremony, only one fish was caught—highlighting the dire state of our native salmon populations and the need

for heightened support and recovery efforts.

Climate change will place additional stress on our salmonid populations, especially for species such as steelhead,

sockeye, coho, and stream-type Chinook for which juvenile development occurs in freshwater streams.[5]

Even minimal changes in stream temperature can alter salmon migration timing, reduce growth rates, and

increase vulnerability to toxins, parasites, and diseases.[49] Warmer stream temperatures also increase salmon

metabolism, diminishing critical energy stores for swimming and spawning.[50] Many diseases that affect salmon

increase in warmer temperatures, including columnaris (tail rot) and furnuncolosis, which infects the gills,

peritoneal cavity, and liver of salmon.[51] Climate projections indicate that Puget Sound rivers will more frequently

exceed thermal tolerances for adult salmon and char by 2080.[5] As drought leads to low streamflows, spawning

and rearing habitat will decline, resulting in reduced thermal shelters, increased competition for resources, and

perhaps greater vulnerability to predators.[52]

Increased winter high-flow events can scour the streambed,

increasing the risk of egg mortality and potentially washing

juvenile salmonids downstream prematurely.[5, 53] The Tribe

takes coho and spring Chinook to nine acclimation ponds at

higher elevation, and releases other species directly from the

hatcheries. The Tribe has already seen its facilities affected by

flood flows, leading to costly repairs, and is concerned that

salmon redds are being scoured by the same flood events.

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Shellfish

Anticipated future changes in the ocean’s acidity will hinder the growth and survival of calcifying organisms, such

as oysters, clams, mussels, pteropods, and crabs. These organisms rely on a non-corrosive environment to form

and maintain their skeletons and shells. The Tribe has observed that oyster seed seems to be in short supply and

that this may be influenced by ocean acidification. Although limited field studies on ocean acidification have been

conducted in Puget Sound, studies elsewhere suggest that ocean acidification will reduce the mussel and oyster

shell formation rate by 40%, growth rate by 17%, and survival rate by 34% by the end of the century.[5] These

impacts may threaten the Tribe’s current reliance on the natural recruitment and reproduction of shellfish stock,

bringing considerable consequences for the livelihoods of the approximately 100 geoduckers and 100 to 130

commercial crabbers within the Tribe.

Population growth and development have already caused visible changes in shellfish habitat, and climate change

will exacerbate these impacts. Studies suggest that sea level rise will cause a 64 to 91% loss of south Puget Sound’s

estuaries by 2100.[54] Extreme precipitation events can rapidly change sedimentation, potentially damaging

commercial harvesting operations and shellfish populations with little warning.[55]

Armored shorelines impede adaptation of intertidal zones, a critical habitat for shellfish, to sea level rise.[54] Urban

development around our Tribal lands and low tree canopy cover along streams can also exacerbate climate-driven

temperature increases, heightening the risk of hypoxia and toxic phytoplankton outbreaks (also called harmful algal

blooms, or HABs).

Since the 1950s, Puget Sound has seen steady increases in the frequency and geographic scope of HABs that are

known to cause paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) in humans.[56] Other known health risks associated with shellfish

contamination from HABs include amnesic shellfish poisoning and diarrhetic shellfish poisoning.[57, 58] These types

of poisoning can bring serious consequences, from gastrointestinal ailments to muscle paralysis and even death

in extreme cases.[59] To date, harmful algal blooms have not been a major concern for the Tribe, but the Tribe

continues to monitor Washington State’s toxin testing results to identify any changes.

Projected changes in water quality resulting from

climate change will also favor the growth of the

bacteria Vibrio. Excess Vibrio can contaminate

shellfish the same way HABs do and can lead

to vibriosis in humans, which also causes

gastrointestinal issues.[60]

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Wildlife

Warming temperatures and precipitation changes will alter the survival, distribution, and phenology of some

wildlife and game species—especially those not able to keep pace with a shifting climate. For many species, nonclimate stressors like land use changes will exacerbate these impacts. For example:

•

Wolverine is a highly snow-dependent species, so changes

in snowpack will greatly affect wolverine vulnerability to

climate change.[61] Overall, wolverine habitat is projected to

shift significantly to higher elevations in western Washington

and decline overall.[5] Recently, Puyallup Tribal staff identified

a potential new wolverine habitat area near the Goat Rocks

wilderness. Staff are currently collecting additional data to

determine whether a population of wolverine inhabits the

area, or if the sighting was an isolated occurrence.

•

Northern spotted owl habitat may decline due to wildfire and

loss of high-quality habitat.[5]

•

Elk are less sensitive to climate change relative to other

species in the Puyallup region because they are habitat and

forage generalists, and they can move long distances and

tolerate a large range of climatic conditions.[61] Increased

wildfire frequency and intensity may produce more early

successional habitat area for herds. Still, climate change as

well as non-climate stressors like development put the herds

at risk. Pressures like habitat fragmentation and conversion

may weaken population resilience and challenge elk survival;[62]

when land is converted to agriculture and other uses, it

can reduce the herds’ critical winter ranges. Introduction

of and expansion of existing invasive species, diseases, and

parasites could bring new or heightened threats to elk food

sources and population health. Canopy closure and meadow

disappearance in alpine and subalpine habitats could also limit

the quantity and quality of forage in summer ranges for elk as

well as for black bear and deer. In particular, there is concern

about the continued availability of the subalpine huckleberry.

[61]

Additional research is needed to fully understand how

climate change may affect specific elk populations—like the

South Rainier herd in the Upper Cowlitz basin—that are

hunted by the Puyallup Tribe.

The Tribe has taken steps to better understand elk population threats and potential management solutions.

A recent study of the South Mt. Rainier Elk Herd by Tribal wildlife biologist Barbara Moeller identified critical

winter habitat areas along the Cowlitz River valley and found that the elk would benefit from expanded

protection and restoration of their winter range.[63] The Tribe has restored more than 300 acres of winter elk

habitat in the Cowlitz valley and started an elk reserve with 45 acres of bottom land. The Tribe is also working

with Pierce County and landowners to encourage increased riparian buffers.

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Habitat Restoration

The Tribe has spearheaded several habitat restoration efforts to improve and preserve important ecosystem

functions and services within Tribal areas. These restoration projects will be critical for ensuring continued

ecological services and functions in the face of a changing climate. Examples of important restoration sites

within the Tribal reservation include the following:

•

Hylebos waterway: The result of a settlement agreement with the Port of Tacoma, the Hylebos

waterway restoration site is an 88-acre conservancy that provides critical protection for juvenile salmon.

Shellfish harvesting is restricted within the former Superfund site, which was historically used for log

sorting and an auto repair shop.

•

Outer Hylebos: The Tribe received a second site from the Port of Tacoma in 1986, located near the

mouth of the Hylebos waterway that was previously used for aquaculture. The Tribe restored the

intertidal mudflat and wetland in 2013.

•

Jordan (West Fork Hylebos Creek): A joint

restoration site with the Port of Tacoma,

the Jordan restoration site is a 42-acre

stream and floodplain restoration project

that includes Wapato Creek. The area used

to be filled with invasive reed canarygrass,

which forms a thick sod layer that can

exclude all other plants.

•

WSDOT and the Port of Seattle have

several mitigation sites within the

reservation.

Water Quality

Climate change will likely exacerbate stressors that are already degrading the quality of streams and waterways that the

Tribe depends on for recreation, cultural activities, and sustenance. Lower summer precipitation combined with warmer

summer temperatures will stress streamside vegetation and worsen summer low flows in urban and rural streams,

concentrating pollutants and increasing instream temperatures in the Puget Sound region.[29] These conditions will

strain aquatic species and increase the risk of harmful algal blooms, as well as worsen dissolved oxygen levels and other

parameters regulated under state surface water quality standards. Lower-elevation, downstream waterways with slower

and wider characteristics will be most affected by increased temperatures, and the amount of time these and other rivers

exceed thermal thresholds will likely lengthen.

The Tribe’s Water Quality department has already observed changes to their monitored streams—many of which have

little riparian canopy and have undergone channelization or bank modifications. The department, which has had a water

quality monitoring program since 1998, has observed the following trends related to water quality of monitored streams:

•

Streams are consistently and increasingly exceeding federal standards for temperature, especially South Prairie

Creek—an important stream for salmon migration.

•

Heavy rainfall events have resulted in observed impacts to sedimentation and turbidity, and these events are

projected to increase in frequency and intensity over the next century. Clarks Creek, a highly urbanized stream,

has especially suffered from an influx of stormwater-driven sediment, pollution, and temperature increases during

high rainfall events.

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IMPACTS

•

Many of the Tribe’s important fish-bearing streams suffer from low dissolved oxygen levels, likely due to a

combination of fish density and temperature and nutrient loads.

•

Elodea algal blooms have become an increasingly challenging issue that worsens with nutrient loading

and temperature increases.

•

Other waterways that already suffer from impaired water quality include the Puyallup River, Swan Creek,

Wapato Creek, Green Water River, Clear Creek, Clearwater River, and Huckleberry Creek.

Streams that support salmon migration and growth will suffer from higher temperatures

and reduced dissolved oxygen levels, in addition to the existing stress of an urbanized

environment.

Figure 10. Federally designated impaired streams on the 303(d) list of the Clean Water Act within the Puyallup Tribal region. Impaired streams,

noted in red, include Clarks Creek, Puyallup River, Swan Creek, and Wapato Creek. Source: Washington State Department of Ecology.[64]

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Population growth and development will also continue to strain water quality and quantity in the region, and saltwater

intrusion from rising sea levels may affect instream salinity levels. Actions that preserve base flows and habitat—such as

reestablishing meanders, buffering along the floodplain, increasing floodplain and channel connectivity and complexity,

and enhancing vegetative cover—will help address these water quality risks. The Tribe has undertaken a number of these

types of projects through partnerships with local and federal agencies, including the following:

•

The Tribe recently worked with the City of Puyallup to remove elodea from Clarks Creek, where a steelhead

hatchery is located. The Tribe also purchased property along the streambank and worked with the Pierce County

Conservation District to improve vegetation cover along the stream through tree planting.

•

The Tribe is also working with the City of Puyallup on two channel stabilization projects to remove sediment and

slow down flows to allow infiltration in the incised area of upper Clarks Creek. The stabilization projects will

reduce (and store) over 90 tons of sediment per year from the upper watershed. This stabilization will benefit

downstream uses, including operations of the Tribe’s Chinook hatchery.

•

The Tribe is also working with the Pierce County Conservation District to reestablish the natural meander of South

Prairie Creek through land acquisition and river restoration.

•

The Tribe’s Water Quality department is working with the Tribe’s Fisheries department on a feasibility study to

reestablish the meander patterns of Boise Creek and improve fish passage past the falls.

Continued restoration efforts at these and other threatened streams such as Wapato and First creeks will support climate

resilience while protecting important habitat, species, and cultural traditions.

Cultural Resources and Traditions

The Tribe’s important archaeological sites, resources, and traditions will also be subject to the hazards of a changing

climate. Cultural sites along the waterfront may experience more frequent and more intense flooding and storm

surges. Changing precipitation and temperatures may alter the availability of traditional plants for a range of purposes.

Diminishing salmon populations will continue to threaten traditional ceremonies and nutrition.

It is critical to consider the exposure of our Tribe’s archeological sites and assets to climate impacts such as flooding

to ensure their continued protection and preservation. This study did not examine specific sites due to the sensitivity

of that information; however, we can anticipate how different sites may be vulnerable based on their locations and

characteristics. Assets on a beach or low-lying area near water bodies such as the Puyallup River, for example, may be

at risk of flooding or sea level rise impacts, which may temporarily or permanently inundate sites, impede access, and

corrode certain materials. More frequent and intense rainfall

Shifting distributions of habitat and species

may inundate areas near rivers and streams that were previously

may limit the ability to gather materials used

outside flood risk zones.

The accessibility and availability of traditional plants, roots,

and other resources may change as species distributions and

habitats shift. The abundance of warmer, lower-elevation forests

rich in species like Douglas fir are expected to decline by the

end of the 2060s due to summer water availability limitations,

especially in south Puget Sound and in the southern Olympic

Mountains. At the same time, high-elevation species such as

western hemlock, cedar, and whitebark pine may experience a

to make traditional products.

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IMPACTS

longer growing season as snowpack declines.[5] Future drought conditions could threaten traditional ceremonies

that require cedar bark, as cedar trees’ weakened resilience to pest and disease outbreaks during droughts may

outweigh any benefits of a longer growing season.[12] Regardless of type or abundance, all forests in Washington

State will be subject to increased risks of wildfire, disease, and pests, which could cause quick, significant loss of

forest habitat and the resources therein in some years.

The Tribe has already observed a declining abundance and changing seasonality of traditional cultural resources.

Wild berries, including huckleberries, ripened two weeks earlier in 2015 than in previous years, requiring an

adjustment in the timing of traditional harvesting activities. High wildfire risk in the summer of 2015 prevented

the Tribe from lighting traditional sweat fires.

Development-driven pressures add to these climate-related stresses, putting our resources further at risk.

Development-driven vegetation loss and pollution has already compromised the health and abundance of the

Tribe’s natural areas—many of which had been used for ceremonial and traditional purposes for centuries.

Addressing these kinds of non-climate stressors is one way to help build resilience.[1]

Transportation

Many of the Tribe’s important transportation routes lie in flood- or landslide-risk areas. The Washington

State Department of Transportation’s (WSDOT) Climate Impacts Vulnerability Assessment identified relative

vulnerabilities of the State’s highway infrastructure to climate change impacts including sea level rise,

precipitation change, temperature change, and fire risk. Findings from this study, depicted in Figure 11 below,

suggest that the following highways in or near our reservation may be highly vulnerable to climate change

impacts, based on the specific potential impacts and the criticality of these routes:

•

Highway 509 from downtown Tacoma to Dash Point

•

Interstate 5 from Lakewood to Federal Way

•

Highway 99 from the edge of the reservation to Federal Way

•

Highway 167 from north Puyallup to Auburn

Highway 512 is rated as having medium vulnerability.

It is likely that climate-driven flooding

and landslides will also affect other local

transportation routes that were not

assessed by WSDOT; further study would be

required to assess the relative vulnerability

of these routes.

Considering climate change in constructing

or updating transportation infrastructure

will ensure that transportation systems

can withstand future impacts. Plans to

construct the Puyallup River bridge next

year, for example, serve as an opportunity to

proactively build in resilience at the onset of

major infrastructure projects.

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Figure 11. Vulnerability of Puyallup-area highways to one or more climate change impacts. Source: Washington State Department of

Transportation 2011.[65]

Public Health and Safety

Changes in air quality, foodborne illness risks, extreme events, and other environmental factors associated with

climate change will present increased threats to the health and safety of our Tribal members.[56, 66, 67] Sensitive

and vulnerable populations such as the young, elderly, disabled, and homeless are especially at risk.

In the last decade, more Americans have died from extreme

More frequent and severe extreme heat,

heat than from any other weather-related cause.[68] Heat

flooding, and algal bloom events could

waves are frequently accompanied by increased groundincrease the risk of respiratory illness,

level ozone concentrations that can cause respiratory

foodborne illness, and physical injury.

problems for certain vulnerable populations. This threat is

especially critical in Pierce County, where asthma is already

a concern; studies have shown a 1 to 7% increase in asthma diagnoses between 2002 and 2012, with 30% of

children in Pierce County public schools experiencing an asthma attack in 2012.**[69] Indoor mold prevalence is

also an air quality-related health concern that Tribal staff fear could be exacerbated by a changing climate. More

research is needed to determine how these risks may change under future climate conditions and how those

changes may affect health in the Puget Sound region and among Puyallup Tribal members.

Heavy rain and flood events can also jeopardize the health and safety of Puyallup Tribal members. Flooding

of structures and roads can limit the ability of residents to move out of harm’s way, as well as the ability of

first responders to reach those in need. Tribal staff have observed that River Road and Lower Clear Creek are

particularly susceptible to flooding; residents had to evacuate the area during previous flooding events. During

these disaster events, the Emerald Queen Casino serves as a critical site for emergency shelter and food.

Climate change could also heighten the risk of foodborne illness. Warmer air and water temperatures, ocean

acidification, and increased nutrient runoff during heavy precipitation events will likely create favorable

conditions for a number of phytoplankton species, many of which produce toxins that accumulate in shellfish.[70]

The frequency and severity of harmful algal blooms is projected to increase in Puget Sound; these blooms could

lead to beach closures and human health risks if contaminated shellfish are ingested.[66] See the Shellfish section

above for more information.

To respond to these and other public health and safety risks, Tribal staff have recently updated emergency

response and preparedness plans, including the Hazard Mitigation Plan, Comprehensive Emergency

Management Plan, and the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment. The Tribe is currently

developing plans to increase public education and engagement in the emergency preparedness process to

ensure that Tribal members understand how to prepare for and respond to extreme situations.

The Tribe lacks funds to undertake many other preventative and response measures to address these risks,

including building retrofits, cooling centers, redundant emergency shelters, mold remediation, and emergency

services. To date, the Tribe has had limited capacity to seek funding through FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation

Assistance programs, which can help fund restoration projects post-disaster, development of preparedness

plans, and retrofits of properties in repetitive flood zones.[71] Currently, the Tribe relies heavily on the response

of outside municipalities during emergencies, particularly for fire and paramedic crews. Increasing our internal

prevention and response capabilities would help us better protect the health and safety of our Tribe in the face

of climate variability and change. It is also important that the Tribe remain engaged in external stakeholder

meetings—such as with adjacent localities and owners/operators of critical infrastructure—to ensure emergency

response and hazard mitigation plans are aligned and coordinated.

** Includes children between grades 8 and 12.

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

Adaptation Options

Existing Programs and Plans

The Puyallup Tribe has already undertaken important actions to improve the general resilience of its natural and built

systems. As described in the preceding chapters on Climate Impacts and Projections and Sector-Specific Impacts, Tribal

plans, programs, and activities that address climate change threats include the following:

•

Habitat Restoration: Habitat preservation and restoration is a high priority for the Tribe. The Tribe partners with

local jurisdictions such as the Port of Tacoma to acquire, protect, and restore important systems and functions,

including coastal intertidal habitat along the Hylebos waterway and floodplain habitat along Clarks, South Prairie,

and Boise creeks.

•

Hatchery and Fishery Management: To address flood risks affecting local hatcheries, the Tribe’s Fisheries and

Environmental departments recently worked with Washington State Environmental Management and FEMA to

stabilize the riverbank at a fish hatchery near Buckley.

•

Monitoring: The Tribe monitors water quality and other indicators on a regular basis.

•

Emergency Management: Tribal staff have recently updated emergency response and preparedness plans,

including the Hazard Mitigation Plan, the Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan, and the Threat and

Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment.

•

Public Education and Outreach Programs: The Tribe participates in joint presentations about air quality health

risks and asthma with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency at Chief Leschi School. The Tribe is currently

developing plans to increase public education and engagement in the emergency preparedness process to ensure

that Tribal members understand how to prepare for and respond to crises.

Despite this progress, more work will be needed to adequately prepare for and respond to the risks of climate change.

The adaptation approaches below present initial ideas that Tribal staff have developed to build upon successes to date

with actions and strategies that protect the health and livelihood of the Tribe’s most vulnerable people, places, and

resources.

Adaptation Approaches

During the project’s third workshop, in April 2016, Tribal staff reviewed adaptation measures adopted by other

communities and tribes, brainstormed potential adaptation measures, and used the following criteria to conduct a

preliminary screening:

•

Effectiveness: Likelihood that the action will work to address identified climate vulnerabilities.

•

Affordability: Overall expense and ease of covering the costs with Tribal budget, grants, or other funds.

•

Feasibility: Encompasses both technical and political feasibility; includes the likelihood of obtaining support for

action and whether the measure is possible to implement.

SECTION TITLE

ADAPTATION

OPTIONS

The adaptation options listed below performed well against these criteria during the screening exercise

conducted at the workshop. Additional criteria to include in further evaluation of the proposed adaptation

options may include flexibility, consistency with Tribal priorities, urgency, near-term windows of opportunity, and

co-benefits.

The adaptation options are presented by sector/resource and categorized under these five main strategies

within each sector/resource:

Implement protection, restoration, and management practices

Provide education and guidance

Reevaluate policies, plans, and protocols

Gather additional information

Leverage partnerships

Fisheries, Hatcheries, and Shellfish

Strategy #1: Implement protection, restoration, and management practices

•

Use hatchery practices (e.g., on-water floating nurseries) to get shellfish larvae past the vulnerable

stage; use out-planting methods.

•

Reduce sources of nutrients that contribute to harmful algal blooms; in the future, as conditions

worsen, this effort could include exploring the use of mussels to filter out excess nutrients.

•

To increase stormwater system capacity, use Low Impact Development (LID) techniques such as rain

gardens for water runoff detention and infiltration.

•

Update the heat exchange system at the Clark Creek Hatchery.

•

Expand efforts to stabilize headwaters above spawning habitat (e.g., using large wood, vegetative

mattresses). Help seek funding for local jurisdictions to implement such efforts beyond the Puyallup

Reservation.

Strategy #2: Provide education and guidance

•

As needed in the future, conduct more outreach to Tribal members regarding beach closures and

response to biotoxin events; information could be shared through the Tribal newspaper, email lists, and

at the point of permitting.

Strategy #3: Reevaluate policies, plans, and protocols

•

Lobby for state changes in hatchery management (e.g., increases in shading, augmenting flows with

cooler groundwater when necessary).

Strategy #4: Gather additional information

•

Continue to track data from Washington State on emerging biotoxins in the region.

Strategy #5: Leverage partnerships

•

Continue to work with the Army Corps of Engineers to increase shading downstream from Tribal

hatcheries.

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Public Safety, Air Quality/Health, Transportation, and Infrastructure

Strategy #1: Implement protection, restoration, and management practices

•

Develop redundant services to accommodate system disruptions due to flooding and more frequent

storms, such as by building “rescue roads” and redundant power and communications systems. Ensure that

primary and alternate transportation routes can continue to provide everyday access, emergency vehicle

access, and evacuation in a safe and effective manner, in the context of a changing climate.

•

Ensure that services provided by critical facilities, including medical and emergency services, are

consistently available to at-risk populations.

•

Increase urban water absorption capacity by minimizing paved surfaces, using absorptive or permeable

construction materials, and increasing public awareness and participation in reducing runoff.

•

To extend the life of infrastructure and reduce risks of pollution due to flooding, locate structures and

equipment at higher elevations. In new construction areas, consider revising ground level requirements to

accommodate increased winter flooding.

•

Strengthen existing structures and build protective infrastructure, including slope control structures, to

prevent landslides along elevated and exposed transportation routes.

•

Plant drought- and heat-resistant plant species for erosion control.

•

Develop natural protective infrastructure such as embankments, sea walls, beach nourishment, and/

or natural infrastructure such as marshes, reefs, beaches, barrier islands, and vegetated shorelines in

combination with road construction.

•

Work with other agencies and jurisdictions to consider building new set-back levees to channel flood

waters away from critical roads and abutments of important bridges.

•

Consider anticipated increases in peak streamflows when designing and constructing the new Puyallup

River bridge.

Strategy #2: Provide education and guidance

•

Incorporate climate resilience into current public outreach and education programs, such as those for air

quality.

Strategy #3: Reevaluate policies, plans, and protocols

•

Integrate future climate risk when updating emergency plans and hazard mitigation plans.

•

Incorporate climate resilience into planning efforts and land use development, recognizing where new

development could be at-risk and adjusting decisions as needed. For example, locate facilities where

climate risks are lower.

•

Maintain and periodically update flood contingency and emergency response action plans, and conduct

drills.

•

Consider climate change impacts when planning new assets or rehabilitating existing assets, especially as

part of strategic asset management efforts.

•

Monitor changes in design standards relating to drainage, and consider applying floodplain-level standards

in areas vulnerable to flooding in the life of the project even if they are not located in the current 100-year

floodplain.

SECTION TITLE

ADAPTATION

OPTIONS

•

Prohibit road and utility construction in areas subject to excessive erosion and/or accretion.

•

Consider changing the permitting process to include sea level rise and other climate change datasets.

Review projects not only to consider immediate impacts but also medium- and longer-term anticipated

impacts.

Strategy #4: Gather additional information

•

Continue to evaluate risks and devise plans for protecting facilities that will be exposed to future flood

risks during high tides.

Strategy #5: Leverage partnerships

•

Team with other agencies to provide flood mitigation/protection around critical infrastructure (e.g.,

repurpose transportation agencies’ right-of-way to provide additional flood storage and/or increased

conveyance).

•

Coordinate with the City of Tacoma as the city completes its Climate Change Resilience Study and

prepares to make decisions about further studies or adaptation actions.

•

Improve communication with nearby localities (e.g., Tacoma, Fife, Federal Way) to ensure

coordinated emergency response and preparedness plans, especially with regard to services that the

Tribe relies on external agencies to provide (e.g., fire and emergency medical services).

•

Increase Tribal participation in road planning projects by strengthening relationships and

communication with WSDOT and other stakeholders, and including climate change considerations

on meeting agendas. For example, urge WSDOT to increase scour and erosion protection at bridges

and to provide increased river conveyance at bridge crossings (or culverts), such as enlarging culverts or

increasing bridge deck elevation to accommodate increased flows.

•

Explore using FEMA funds to implement adaptation projects. For example, seek funding from FEMA’s

Hazard Mitigation Assistance grant programs to fund acquisition or elevation of structures in repetitive

flood zones.

•

Explore joining the National Flood Insurance Program.

Natural Resources (Habitat and Wildlife Restoration and Conservation),

Water Quality

Strategy #1: Implement protection, restoration, and management practices

•

Implement on-the-ground habitat and water quality restoration projects that serve one or more of the

following functions:

»»

Enhance floodplain connectivity, such as by:

•

»»

Improving and reconnecting side channels

Setting back levees and dikes

Reestablishing stream meanders

Daylighting streams (uncovering and restoring buried streams)

Focusing on areas within the current 100-year floodplain

Provide refuges for fish from summer high temperature and winter/spring high-energy flows, such as

by:

•

Identifying, protecting, and restoring off-channel habitat

Identifying and protecting cool water inflows, undercut banks, and deep stratified pools

Increasing shading of streams by planting native trees

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

»»

Reduce discharge of warm water and stormwater into rivers and streams (e.g., from irrigation, point

source discharges from industry and power plants).

»»

Reduce forest susceptibility to severe fire, insect outbreaks, and drought by establishing or enhancing

planned treatments of forest sites that specifically manage for these impacts.

»»

Restore high-quality freshwater habitat through the reintroduction of beavers, wetland mitigation and

restoration, groundwater recharge, and flow augmentation.

»»

Maintain and increase biological diversity and connectivity to increase large-scale resilience of

vulnerable landscapes to droughts, wildfires, and flooding.

»»

Diversify vegetation and enhance water-retaining areas, such as by abutting wetland projects to

agricultural areas to reduce flood vulnerability.

»»

Provide corridors between conservation areas to help plants and animals migrate to new locations

with suitable habitat.

»»

Protect undeveloped areas that are up-gradient from tidal wetlands to allow wetland migration and

buffer intact ecosystems.

»»

Restore badly eroded streams at coastal outfalls.

•

Accommodate and facilitate inland/upland migration of tidal freshwater habitats by creating/restoring

wetlands in place with boundary protection (e.g., sill, rock), planned elevation increases, and considering

development upstream that could affect species migration.

•

Use vegetation species for restoration that are more flood- and drought-tolerant and that can withstand

higher salinity.

Strategy #2: Provide education and guidance

•

Educate landowners and stakeholder groups about the importance of conservation and restoration of

key corridor habitats, such as buffer areas along riparian systems and critical winter range habitat for elk.

•

Educate Tribal members about existing habitat conditions and the benefits of building the resilience of

those habitats.

•

Use public access points, nature centers, and hunting and fishing regulation guides to inform people of

climate change impacts on wildlife, and what they can do to help.

Strategy #3: Reevaluate policies, plans, and protocols

•

Introduce new policies that encourage or require native and/or drought-tolerant vegetation in all

landscaping and restoration projects.

•

Examine how restoration project maintenance may need to be restructured in drought years.

•

Incorporate climate change considerations into existing and new management plans for protecting

sensitive and vulnerable species.

•

Update natural resource protection plans, land use plans, and water resources management plans to

address climate change considerations for species and ecosystems.

•

Work with partner jurisdictions to evaluate opportunities for improving current land use permitting

processes.

SECTION TITLE

ADAPTATION

OPTIONS

Strategy #4: Gather additional information

•

Continue examining climate impacts to alpine and subalpine habitats and associated threats to wildlife

such as wolverine, bear, deer, and elk.

•

Work with EPA to initiate research on groundwater influence on stream temperature within Tribally

monitored streams.

•

Continue to monitor and document elk populations to better understand trends and the impacts

of climate change and other stressors, such as effects of increased wildfires on availability of early

successional foraging habitat and changes in disease and parasite threats.

Strategy #5: Leverage partnerships

•

Work with partner jurisdictions to leverage seed funding for habitat restoration projects. For example,

fund the design phase internally and partner for the construction phase.

•

Work with conservation groups and nonprofits to encourage private landowners to protect critical

habitat areas through conservation easements.

•

Work with the Army Corps of Engineers to allow more vegetation and shade along levees through

their variance process.

•

Encourage the City of Tacoma and the Port of Tacoma to remove bulkheads and shore defense works

to restore shoreline, preserve natural processes, and help adapt to sea level rise.

•

Work with partner jurisdictions to encourage management of forest density to reduce susceptibility to

severe fire, insect outbreaks, and drought by establishing or enhancing structural prescriptions.

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

APPENDICES

Appendix A.

Terms and Definitions

100-year flood

A flood that statistically has a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given year.

Accretion

The gradual accumulation of additional layers or matter.

Adaptation

In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its

effects, to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems,

the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention

may facilitate adjustment to expected climate.

Anthropogenic

Originating in human activity.

Adaptive capacity

The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and

extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or

to cope with the consequences.

Atmospheric river

A narrow band of water vapor transport extending from the tropical Pacific to the

west coast of North America during the winter months.

Base flood elevation

The 100-year flood elevation used by FEMA.

Climate

The statistics of weather. In other words, the average pattern for weather over a

period of months, years, decades, or longer in a specific place.

Emissions

The release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors and aerosols into the

atmosphere over a specified area and period.

Exposure

The presence of people; livelihoods; environmental services and resources;

infrastructure; or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be

adversely affected by climate change.

Extreme weather event

An event that is rare within its statistical reference distribution at a particular place.

Greenhouse gases

The gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic

(including carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases), that absorb and emit

radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of infrared radiation emitted

by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere, and clouds.

Hypoxia

Low or depleted oxygen in a water body.

Levee

A natural or human-made earthen barrier along the edge of a stream, lake, or river.

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Ocean acidification

Increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in sea water causing a measurable

increase in acidity (i.e., a reduction in ocean pH). This may lead to reduced

calcification rates of calcifying organisms such as corals, mollusks, algae, and

crustaceans.

Peak flow

The maximum instantaneous discharge of a stream or river at a given location.

The pH scale measures how acidic or basic a substance is. It ranges from 0 to 14. A

pH of 7 is neutral. A pH less than 7 is acidic, and a pH greater than 7 is basic.

Projection

A potential future evolution of a quantity or set of quantities, often computed

with the aid of a model. Projections are distinguished from predictions to

emphasize that projections involve assumptions concerning, for example, future

socioeconomic and technological developments that may or may not be realized.

Redd

A spawning nest that is built by salmon and steelhead in the gravel of streams or

the shoreline of lakes.

Resilience

The ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb,

accommodate, or recover from the effects of a hazardous event in a timely and

efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, restoration, or

improvement of its essential basic structures and functions.

Scenario

A plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop based

on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces and

key relationships.

Sensitivity

The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate

variability or change.

Snow water equivalent

The amount of water contained within the snowpack.

Storm surge

The temporary increase, at a particular locality, in the height of the sea due to

extreme meteorological conditions (low atmospheric pressure and/or strong

winds).

Vulnerability

The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse

effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability

is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a

system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Weather

The atmospheric conditions at a specific place at a specific point in time.

These definitions are drawn from the Environmental Protection Agency (including its Glossary of Climate Terms), the US

Department of Agriculture Forest Service Climate Change Glossary, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and

the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group website.

APPENDICES

Appendix B.

Additional Maps

Figure 12. Tribal-owned facilities (green dots) for a portion of Puyallup Reservation north of SR-167, south and east of North Frontage Road, and

west of 62nd Avenue East projected to be at risk of flooding during extreme high tides in 2050. Dark blue areas are already below base flood

elevation (BFE). Light blue are below BFE with 19 inches of sea level rise (the high-range estimate for 2050).

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Figure 13. Tribal-owned facilities (green dots) for a portion of Puyallup Tribe Reservation north of SR-167, south and east of North Frontage Road,

and west of 62nd Avenue East projected to be at risk of flooding during extreme high tides in 2100. Dark blue areas are already below base flood

elevation (BFE). Light blue are below BFE with 56 inches of sea level rise (the high-range estimate for 2100).

APPENDICES

Figure 14. Current FEMA flood hazard areas for a portion of the Puyallup Tribe Reservation. Tribal-owned facilities are marked

with green dots.

PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

Figure 15.Landslide hazard areas for a portion of the Puyallup Reservation.

APPENDICES

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PUYALLUP TRIBE OF INDIANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT & ADAPTATION OPTIONS

This is a copy of a public record, reproduced as it was published. It is not legal advice, and it may not be the version a court would rely on. Check the official source before you cite it.