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KUL WICASA

OYATE

CLIMATE

RESILIENCE PLAN

2025-2050

From River to Prairie:

Kul Wicasa Oyate Climate Resilience Plan

Presented to the Lower Brule Tribal Council

by the

Lower Brule Sioux Tribe Climate Change Advisory Committee

October 2025

Lower Brule Tribal Building. Photo source: Sheldon Fletcher

About this Report

This plan was made possible by funding from the Climate Smart

Communities Initiative and a collaborative effort led by the

Lower Brule Climate Change Advisory Committee, the Great

Plains Tribal Water Alliance, and Lark Environmental, Inc., a

woman-owned environmental consulting firm.

Expert guidance and review of the climate-trend analysis and

projection data were provided by Laura Edwards, South Dakota

State Climatologist at South Dakota State University, and Imtiaz

Rangwala of the North Central Climate Adaptation Science

Center at the University of Colorado Boulder.

All of the information contained within this report is

property of the Lower Brule Sioux Tribe.

Private use by Lower Brule members and non-members,

and/or use by outside parties (federal, state, individual) is

strictly prohibited without prior permission from the

Lower Brule Sioux Tribe. Requests for such use should be

put in writing to the Lower Brule Tribal Council.

Lower Brule Climate

Change Advisory

Committee

Mary Jane Gourneau

Director, Lower Brule Sioux Tribe (LBST)

Environmental Protection Office

Jim McCauley

Lower Brule Rural Water Supply System

Brian Molyneaux

LBST Cultural Resources

Marlene Crowe

Human Services Department

Larry Jandreau

Director, LBST Facilities Management

Program

Ben Janis

LBST Wildlife

Sheldon Fletcher

LBST Environmental Protection Office

Lance Witte

Superintendent, Lower Brule Schools

To cite this report, please use the following reference:

Lower Brule Sioux Tribe Climate Change Advisory Committee.

(2025). From River to Prairie: Kul Wicasa Oyate Climate Resilience

Plan. Lower Brule, SD.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Figures & Tables

ii Key Terms

01 Introduction

Overview of the Climate Resilience Plan

Importance of climate adaptation for the Tribe’s

cultural, environmental, and economic resilience

Goals and objectives of the Climate Resilience Plan:

Caring for Our People: Health, Housing, and

Community Vitality

Guidance from the Ancestors: Knowledge,

Vision, and Ceremony

Protecting What Sustains Us: Water, Planning,

and Preparedness

Walking with the Land: Plants, Animals, and

Seasonal Balance

Section One

05 Climate Change Impacts,

Vulnerabilities, & Risks

Current climate trends (temperature changes,

droughts, floods)

Establishment of three climate futures

Assessment of vulnerabilities and risks in key areas:

Water Resources

Land Resources

Cultural Traditions

Fish, Wildlife & Recreation

Public Health & Safety

Focused Climate Risk Analysis for Species and Tribal

Systems

25 Section Two

Voices of the Kul Wicasa Oyate

Engagement: Community Meeting

Community Perspectives on Climate Change

Reflections from Our Elders

Government Square, Lower Brule, circa 1895.

At right is the Lower Brule Boarding School complex. On the left of the spread stands the large two story boys and girls dormitory and dining hall.

Just right of center is the residence of the school dean. At the far right are tents and small shacks where Lower Brule families lived. A white picket

fence marks the edge of the school grounds; community stories recall children throwing stones across the fence, a stark reminder of separation

during the boarding school era. Photo source: Sheldon Fletcher

33 Section Three

Climate Adaptation Strategies

Climate Adaptation: Strategies for a Changing Future

Adaptation Actions:

Caring for Our People: Health, Housing, and

Community Vitality

Guidance from the Ancestors: Knowledge, Vision,

and Ceremony

Protecting What Sustains Us: Water, Planning,

and Preparedness

Walking with the Land: Plants, Animals, and

Seasonal Balance

40 Section Four

Implementation Plan

Establishing timelines and milestones for

adaptation measures

Identifying funding sources and partnerships:

Government grants and programs

Collaboration with environmental organizations

Private sector involvement

Creating monitoring and evaluation frameworks to

assess progress

45 References & Data

List of Figures

List of Tables

Figure 1. Diminishment of Land for the Lower Brule Sioux

Tribe 1851- Present, page 2.

Figure 2. Annual temperature departure from average (°F) for

the Reservation relative to the 1971–2000 climatological

baseline, page 3.

Figure 3. Warming stripes for the Lower Brule Sioux Tribe

Reservation, page 6

Figure 4. Average winter (Dec-Feb) temperatures across the

Reservation and surrounding region, page 7.

Figure 5. Average fall (Sep-Nov) precipitation for the

Reservation and surrounding region, page 7.

Figure 6. 12-Month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

values for the Reservation, page 8.

Figure 7. Average hourly precipitation intensity by season

(colored bars) and year (black dashed line), page 8.

Figure 8. Mid-century (2040-2069, RCP8.5) projected changes

for annual total precipitation and annual average temperature

for the 20 GCMs that are included in the MACAv2-METDATA

dataset, page 9.

Figure 9. Seasonal variation of temperature (panel A),

precipitation (panel B), and soil moisture (panel C) for the three

climate futures, page 11.

Appendices

Table 1. Expected changes in key climate hazards among the

different climate futures, page 11.

Table 2. Risk assessment of culturally and ecologically

important plant species under future climate scenarios, page

17.

Table 3. Risk assessment of culturally and ecologically

important wildlife species under future climate scenarios, page

19.

Table 4. Risk assessment of essential Tribal infrastructure and

community services on the Reservation under future climate

scenarios, page 22.

Table 5. Adaptation actions for Caring for Our People: Health,

Housing, and Community Vitality, page 35.

Table 6. Adaptation actions for Guidance from the Ancestors:

Knowledge, Vision, and Ceremony, page 37.

Table 7. Adaptation actions for Protecting What Sustains Us:

Water, Planning, and Preparedness, page 337.

Table 8. Adaptation actions for Walking with the Land: Plants,

Animals, and Seasonal Balance, page 39.

(electronic version only)

Appendix A: Community Survey Summary Report

Lower Brule, aerial 1938.

Aerial shows the townsite and river islands along the Missouri River. The image documents lands and access routes that were lost after the

creation of Big Bend Dam. Source: Brian Molyneaux.

Key Terms

Adaptation: Actions that prepare for or respond to climate

effects in ways that reduce harm or make use of helpful

opportunities.

Adaptive capacity: The ability of a species, system, or service

to adjust, cope, or recover when conditions change.

Anomaly: A departure from an average. For example,

temperature anomaly is how much a given year differs from the

baseline average.

Baseline period: The reference window used to compute

averages for comparison. In this plan we most often use 1971

to 2000. For the drought frequency check we compared future

periods to an observed baseline of 1981 to 2005 due to lack of

data previous to 1979.

Climate change: Long term shifts in temperature,

precipitation, and related systems, often driven by increased

greenhouse gases.

Climate futures (naming): Plain language scenario storylines

built from model data to test a range of local conditions.

Cracked Earth: A climate future with persistent warmth and

drying through the growing season. Winters and falls may be

wetter, but summers are hotter and drier with declining soil

moisture.

Drought intensity: How severe dry conditions are, often

summarized with indices like SPEI. Strong negative values

indicate more intense drought.

Expected range: For monitoring, the band that shows what

values are considered normal over time after accounting for

trend and season. Values touching or leaving this band signal

growing concern.

Extreme precipitation metrics: Rx5day is the largest total

over any five consecutive days in a year. 1 hour rainfall

intensity: highest hourly rainfall in a year (in/hr), a proxy for

flash flood potential and culvert or storm-drain stress.

Hazard: A climate driven stress or event such as drought,

extreme heat, flooding, or wildfire conditions.

Monitoring triggers: Simple cues linked to action. Watch

when an indicator approaches the expected range. Warning

when it moves outside for a season. Action when it remains

outside for two seasons or crosses a critical threshold.

Peaks and Valleys: A climate future with strong seasonal

swings. Winters and springs are wetter and warmer, while

summers are hot with pronounced dry spells.

Primary driver future: The climate future that most increases

risk for a given item because it most strengthens the key

hazard for that item.

Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 8.5: The high

emissions pathway used for future projections in this plan. It

specifies greenhouse gas concentrations and land use that

models use to simulate climate.

Resilience: The capacity to anticipate, prepare for, respond to,

and recover from change while sustaining community well

being.

Risk: A function of how likely a hazard is and how serious its

consequences would be.

Risk categories: Labels used in the tables: Low Risk, Medium

Risk, High Risk, and Very High Risk.

Risk Priority Score: A combined score that scales vulnerability

and hazard pressure to help rank actions.

Sensitivity: How strongly a species, service, or system

responds to a given climate stress.

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

(SPEI): An index of drought that blends precipitation with

temperature driven water demand.

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI): An index of wetness

and dryness based on precipitation alone.

Temperature anomaly: The difference between observed

temperature and the baseline average, shown as degrees

above or below normal.

The Trickster: A climate future with mixed signals. Cold

season moisture often increases, but summer and fall trend

drier and soils lose water across the year.

Very high fire danger days: Days when fires start easily,

spread rapidly, and are difficult to control due to dry fuels and

weather conditions.

Vulnerability: Susceptibility to harm, based on sensitivity and

adaptive capacity.

Introduction

Our Kul Wicasa Oyate homeland has no formal boundaries. We

have always lived in the grasslands and river valleys between

the Rocky Mountains and the Great Lakes. Within recent

memory, our ancestors settled where the White River and the

Missouri River meet in present-day South Dakota.

fter US soldiers first came into our lands in 1804, however,

our world drastically changed. Beginning in 1825, their

government induced our people to make ‘treaties’ that

gradually reduced our territory. By 1900, we had even lost our

White River homeland, as they forced us to move to the area of

the Big Bend along the Missouri. And this was not the end of

our land losses (Fig. 1).

In the twentieth century the Pick Sloan Missouri River Basin

program altered our landscape again. Between 1958 and 1964

they built two large dams along the Missouri – one just south of

our old town of Lower Brule – to protect farmers from flooding

far downstream. To carry out these projects they took Lower

Brule lands, 7,997 acres for the Fort Randall dam and 14,299

acres for the Big Bend project. This drove us for good out of

the fertile valley bottomlands of our ancestors and into the dry

gumbo hills and terraces on the valley side, as the waters

flooded out most of our forests, hunting, fishing and gathering

grounds, gardens and sacred places.

In these upland terraces and breaks in the Missouri River valley,

we had to move into a new unfamiliar town, set on a flat,

treeless claypan terrace above the Lake Sharpe reservoir. The

government had to build a new infrastructure of roads, water

systems and all the other facilities people need to sustain life,

and we were faced with finding new ways to farm and ranch the

poorer soils in this drier and windier setting. Despite these

disruptions, we adapted. We rebuilt housing and roads, shifted

agriculture and grazing to the more difficult challenges in the

dry uplands, and began to regain the lives we lost in our old

homes by the river. Through all this, we worked hard to

maintain our Lakota tradition of living in practical and spiritual

ways that integrate people, land, and all the other living things

and resources in our homeland.

Congress later admitted to some of the damage they had done.

In 1997, they provided partial compensation when the Lower

Brule Sioux Tribe Infrastructure Development Trust Fund

became a public law. The 1997 settlement transformed a

federal taking into a forward-looking fund sensitive to the

needs and desires of our tribal communities. It now serves as a

secure base for long term tribal recovery.

As our elders did in the past, we show our resilience by all the

positive changes at Lower Brule since this most recent disaster,

and our Kul Wicasa families will always thrive here, despite the

challenges of the future.

We remain close by the river of our ancestors, and we have the

strength and wisdom of the elders to help us follow the path of

our Lakota ways. These historical shifts matter for today's

climate work. Our experience with forced relocation,

fragmented landholdings, and a river system regulated by

upstream dams has already required flexible management of

water, roads, housing, and habitat. It has also strengthened our

habit of planning for change, rebuilding after loss, and investing

in the next generation. The implementation and monitoring

steps in this plan build on that record. They focus on protecting

what remains of riparian corridors and benches, improving

water and road systems shaped by the reservoirs, and

sustaining the cultural practices that have carried our

community through each change in our homelands over the

generations.

Today, climate change presents a new kind of challenge. It is

not one single event. It is a set of changes happening at the

same time. Longer dry periods, stronger storms, hotter

temperatures (Fig. 2), unpredictable winters, and shifting

seasons. These changes affect how we live, how we use our

resources, and how we plan for the future. They touch nearly

every part of life on the Reservation, from water and

infrastructure to food systems, health, and culture.

This Climate Resilience Plan (Plan) is a tool for the Lower Brule

Sioux Tribe (Tribe) to respond to those changes. It reflects the

observations and knowledge shared by the elders, other

community members, and Tribal staff. It builds on the results of

the Vulnerability Assessment, which identified where we are

most at risk and which parts of our community may need the

most support in the face of climate stress. It also draws from

both traditional knowledge and scientific data to better

understand the challenges ahead.

Adaptation, as we define it here, means taking practical steps to

prepare for climate impacts and reduce the risks to our land,

our people, and our way of life. It means looking at what is

already happening, thinking ahead about what is likely to come,

and choosing actions that can help us stay strong in the face of

uncertainty.

Diminishment of Land for the Lower

Brule Sioux Tribe

1851-Present

1899

1906

Lands Flooded by

Corps of Engineers

1958-Present

Figure 1. Diminishment of Land for the Lower Brule Sioux Tribe, 1851 to Present. The outer black line marks the

1851 treaty area; the red line shows the 1868 Fort Laramie boundary; the purple line shows reductions recorded

by 1877; additional changes in 1899 and 1906 (map inset) further narrowed the land base. Light blue shading

(not to scale) labeled Land Flooded by Corp of Engineers indicates lands placed under U.S. Army Corps of

Engineers control during the reservoir era. Together the outlines trace the shift from a broad treaty landscape to

the present reservation along the Missouri River near Big Bend. Sources: Sheldon Fletcher and Brian Molyneaux.

Adaptation is not about fear or retreat. It is about preparation

and protection. It is about planning for a future that honors our

values, our sovereignty, and our responsibility to future

generations.

This plan focuses on strategies that reflect the priorities of the

Tribe and the realities of life on the Reservation. It does not try

to address every possible climate impact or solve every

problem. Instead, it focuses on actions that are realistic,

meaningful, and aligned with existing Tribal goals. Many of the

strategies in this plan could be considered win-win solutions.

These are actions that support climate resilience but also help

us address other challenges like improving public health,

protecting cultural knowledge, managing natural resources, or

maintaining vital infrastructure.

Throughout this process, we have heard many voices from

across the community. Elders have described how the land has

changed over their lifetimes. The youth have expressed

concern for the future they will inherit. Farmers, ranchers, and

land managers have talked about how climate change is

affecting daily operations and long-term planning. Health

professionals have raised concerns about rising rates of illness

tied to extreme heat, poor air quality, and water-related

hazards. These perspectives are not separate from this Plan.

They are its foundation.

Lower Brule Mesonet Weather Station shortly after completion in

2023. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Makenzie Leonard

Figure 2. Annual temperature departure from average (°F) for the Reservation relative to the 1971–2000 climatological baseline. Panels show departures for three

periods: (A) 1950–1980, (B) 1980–2010, and (C) 2010–2024. Red-Yellow areas indicate warmer-than-average conditions; blue-green areas indicate cooler-thanaverage conditions. These shifts highlight a clear warming trend over time. Source: [1].

Lower Brule

Temperature Trends

1950-Present

1950-1980

1980-2010

<-2.5

-1.0

0.5

2010-2024

2.0

Departure from Average (°F)

>3.5

The strategies included in the following sections are organized

around four major areas of concern that have emerged through

the planning process:

1.Caring for Our People: Health, Housing, and

Community Vitality: Climate change does not only affect

the environment. It also affects our homes, our health, and

the wellbeing of our families. When extreme heat, flooding,

or storms threaten housing and put elders and children at

risk, these are climate impacts that require our attention.

This section outlines strategies to strengthen essential

infrastructure, expand access to health services, and

support the physical and emotional needs of the

community. Building resilience means not only preparing for

emergencies, but also fostering connection, care, and

shared responsibility among our community.

2.Guidance from the Ancestors: Knowledge, Vision, and

Ceremony: Climate change also disrupts our ways of

knowing, our ceremonies, and our relationships with the

land. When weather extremes interfere with seasonal

traditions or when traditional foods and medicines become

harder to find, the loss is cultural as much as it is ecological.

This section highlights the importance of preserving and

carrying forward traditional knowledge, supporting cultural

practices, and honoring the guidance of elders and

ancestors in shaping our response to a changing climate.

3.Protecting What Sustains Us: Water, Planning, and

Preparedness: Access to clean, reliable water is essential

for health, food production, livestock, ceremony, and

cultural practices. Climate change is already affecting the

timing and amount of water available on the Reservation.

Drought, flooding, and seasonal shifts in precipitation all

pose risks. This section identifies actions to strengthen our

water systems, protect water quality, and plan for long-term

changes in water availability.

4.Walking with the Land: Plants, Animals, and Seasonal

Balance: The land is central to our identity and survival.

Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns are affecting

where plants grow, how animals move, and what can be

gathered or hunted. Some species are becoming harder to

find, while others are arriving in new areas. This section

focuses on actions that protect habitat, restore native

species, and support the connection between people and

land. It also recognizes the importance of teaching younger

generations how to read the landscape and care for it in

changing conditions.

This Plan is not the final word. It is a living document. As

conditions change, and as the Tribe’s capacity grows, this Plan

will need to be revisited and updated. It provides a clear starting

point and outlines where we are now, what we are concerned

about, and what we can do to prepare. It is rooted in the values

of the Kul Wicasa Oyate and guided by the knowledge and

leadership of our people.

Photos from the Annual Kul Wicasa Wacipi (PowWow), Fair and Rodeo

2025. Source: Sheldon Fletcher

CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTS

VULNERABILITIES

RISKS

2025-2050

Section One

Climate Impacts &

Vulnerabilities

Since the late 19th Century, the Earth has been getting warmer.

On average, global temperatures have increased by about

0.14°F per decade. In the past 40 years, that rate has more than

doubled. The 10 hottest years ever recorded have all happened

since 2005. This rapid warming is mostly caused by human

activities that release greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide,

methane, and nitrous oxide into the atmosphere. These gases

trap heat, changing the climate.

The Tribe is already seeing these changes. Our seasons are

shifting, temperatures are rising (Fig. 3), and rainfall patterns

are becoming less predictable. These changes affect not just the

land, but also our homes, our animals, our water, and the

cultural practices that have guided us for generations.

This section is meant to provide a clear picture of how climate is

already changing our lands, and what we might expect in the

years ahead. It includes three key parts:

1. Observed Climate Trends: This part describes the changes

we’ve already seen in recent decades based on local weather

and climate records.

2. Three Climate Scenarios: To help us prepare for what’s

ahead, this part considers three distinct climate futures

developed by different climate modeling groups. These models

are built by scientists using decades of atmospheric data,

satellite observations, and physical principles to simulate how

the climate system behaves over time. Each model gives us a

slightly different perspective on what future conditions could

look like for our culture, people, lands, and our resources.

3. Impacts and Risks to the Tribe: This part connects the

climate data to what matters most: our lives, our homes, and

our future as a Tribe. We look at:

Housing & Infrastructure: Flooding, high winds, and

extreme heat can damage roads, homes, and

wastewater systems. Freeze-thaw cycles may break

down older buildings.

Culture & Community Life: Warmer winters and shifting

seasons may disrupt ceremonies, subsistence

practices, or access to traditional plants and medicines.

Water Resources: Drought and evaporation can reduce

water levels in lakes and rivers. Flooding can overwhelm

treatment systems or contaminate water sources.

Land & Wildlife: Changes in precipitation and

temperature may affect where animals live, when they

breed, and what plants grow. Invasive species may

move in, while important species may decline.

Warming Stripes for the Lower Brule Sioux Reservation

A. Observed Temperature Data 1895-2024

B. Projected Temperatures 2025-2050

CNRM-CM5 Model

HadGEM-ES365 Model

CanESM2 Model

1900

1960

2025

2050

Figure 3. Warming stripes for the Reservation. Each colored stripe represents the annual average temperature relative to the long-term average from 1895 to

2024. Blue stripes indicate cooler-than-average years; red stripes show warmer-than-average years. The first portion of the graphic reflects observed temperature

data, while the three sets of future stripes illustrate projected temperature trends from the three climate models used in this assessment. These models represent

a range of plausible futures from moderate to more extreme warming, which helps visualize how the climate may continue to change through the middle of the

century. Source: [2]. Observed data: NCEI U.S. Climate Divisional Database (nClimDiv), South Dakota Climate Division 6, monthly mean temperature, 1895 to 2024.

Annual values were averaged from monthly data and shown as departures from the 1895 to 2024 mean; Projected data: MACAv2-METDATA for mid-century (20402069, RCP8.5) for the three Climate Futures listed.

Section One

Climate Trends

Temperature & Precipitation Trends over the

Last 100 Years

Temperature

Over the past century, annual temperatures on the

Reservation and the surrounding region have risen by

approximately 2.5°F. But this warming has not been spread

evenly throughout the year. Winters have warmed the most

(Fig. 4), while summer averages have climbed more modestly.

Still, minimum summer temperatures are on the rise, which

limits nighttime cooling and increases heat stress for both

livestock and wildlife.

Recent decades underscore the warming trend. Six of the ten

hottest years on record have occurred since 1999, with 2012

topping the list. In contrast, only one of the ten coldest years

(2019) occurred after 2000. This shift suggests that cooler

years are becoming increasingly rare, while record-setting heat

is becoming more common. The seasonal nature of this

warming, especially the rise in winter lows and summer

nighttime temperatures, has implications not just for comfort,

but for ecosystems, agriculture, and health.

Extreme Temperatures

Analysis of daily high and low temperatures shows that extreme

heat and cold events are not becoming more frequent, but

some specific patterns are emerging. The number of hot days

(above 90°F) and freezing days (below 32°F) each year has

remained relatively stable over the past several decades.

However, winter minimum temperatures have shown a

statistically significant increase, rising about half a degree (°F)

per decade since 1950. This warming of winter nights may

reduce risks like livestock cold stress but could also lead to

lower snowpack, changes in spring runoff, and shifts in

overwintering pest populations. A warming winter trend does

not, however, rule out that extreme cold stress can still occur

due to natural fluctuations in severe winter storms.

While summer nighttime lows did not show a statistically

significant trend in the local data, rising summer minimum

temperatures are a well-documented regional and global

signal. Even small increases can reduce overnight relief during

heatwaves, compounding stress for people, crops, and animals.

Though not yet pronounced locally, this emerging pattern

warrants attention in future planning for agriculture, public

health, and emergency response.

South Dakota Climate Division 6, Average Winter (Dec-Feb) Temperatures

1896-2024 Trend: 0.4 degrees F/decade

Figure 4. Average winter (Dec–Feb) temperatures

across the Reservation and surrounding region,

1896–2024. The data show a long-term warming

trend of 0.4°F per decade, consistent with broader

regional and global climate patterns. Warmer winters

have become increasingly common since the late

20th century. Source: [2] NCEI U.S. Climate Divisional

Database (nClimDiv), South Dakota Climate Division 6.

South Dakota Climate Division 6, Average Fall (Sep-Nov) Precipitation

1896-2024 Trend: 0.11 inches/decade

Figure 5. Average fall (Sep-Nov) precipitation for the

Reservation and surrounding region. This long-term

trend, shown from 1895 to present, reflects a shift

toward wetter conditions, though year-to-year

variability remains high. Source: [2]. NCEI U.S. Climate

Divisional Database (nClimDiv), South Dakota Climate

Division 6, fall (Sep-Nov) mean precipitation, 1895 to

2024.

Precipitation

Annual precipitation (1895-present) has increased over the past

century (Fig. 5), with particularly high totals recorded in recent

decades. Several of the wettest years on record (e.g., 1993,

1996, 1998, 2010, and 2019) have occurred since the mid1990s, and among these 2019 received over 30 inches of

precipitation. This pattern aligns with results from the 12-month

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (Fig. 6), which shows a

statistically significant trend toward wetter conditions beginning

in the early 2000s). While overall precipitation has increased, the

variability from year to year remains high. These findings

suggest a climate that is trending wetter, though potentially

more volatile, with implications for both water availability and

flood risk depending on how precipitation is distributed

throughout the year.

Precipitation Intensity

Over the past two decades, rainfall on the Reservation has

become more erratic and it has also gotten more intense.

Recent research has shown that short, heavy downpours are

increasing as the climate warms worldwide, and our experience

reflects that pattern [3]. Precipitation intensity refers to how

much rain falls in a short period of time. Instead of gentle,

soaking rains spread out over several hours or days, we are

seeing more frequent bursts of heavy downpours. These short,

high intensity rain events can lead to flash flooding, soil erosion,

and damage to roads and culverts.

Our analysis of local weather station data from the Pierre

Regional Airport since 2001 shows a clear increase in both the

intensity of rain and the number of extreme rainfall events,

particularly in the summer (Fig. 7). This shift in rainfall patterns

can have a big impact on the land, water systems, and

infrastructure the community relies on.

Drought

As mentioned in the Precipitation section, analysis of the 12month SPI from 1895 to 2024 shows a slight trend toward

wetter conditions in the area around Lower Brule. Despite this,

drought remains a recurring feature of the climate. Our analysis

found no significant long-term changes in the frequency,

duration, or intensity of drought events over the last century.

Instead, droughts have occurred in stretches of long dry

periods like those in the early 2000s and then been followed by

wetter periods like the early 2010s. Recent years have

remained close to average, with no clear shift in either

direction. However, when temperature is considered using the

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a

different picture begins to emerge. Rising temperatures and

higher evaporative demand are amplifying drought impacts,

even when precipitation remains steady. This warming effect

suggests that future droughts may feel more intense-not

necessarily because of less precipitation-but because the land

is drying out faster.

Wetter

Figure 6. 12-Month Standardized Precipitation Index

(SPI) values for the Reservation. Blue bars indicate

wetter-than-normal periods and red bars represent

dry/drought conditions. While individual drought

events, especially in the late 1980s, early 2000s, and

mid-2010s stand out as severe, the overall trend does

not suggest a long-term increase in drought

frequency or intensity. Source [4].

Drier

Figure 7. Average hourly precipitation intensity by

season (colored bars) and year (black dashed line).

Based on data from the Pierre Regional Airport

station. While year-to-year variability is high, there is

an upward trend in annual precipitation intensity

since 2001. Recent increases in summer values

suggest a shift toward more intense rainfall during the

warm season, which is consistent with expectations

under climate change. Source [5]. Analysis uses hourly

precipitation from 1980–2024.

Section One

Projected Climate

Futures: 2040–2069

Exporing Future Climate Scenarios for Planning

Introduction

The purpose of the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

(Assessment) for the Tribe is to evaluate the potential impacts

of climate change on the Tribe's environment, resources, way

of life, and to identify specific vulnerabilities within the Tribe’s

lands, ecosystems, infrastructure, and cultural practices that

are sensitive to changes in climate, such as altered

precipitation patterns, increasing temperatures, and extreme

weather events.

The Assessment uses historical data and climate projections

focused on the 30-years around the middle of this century

(2040-2069). To make a specific prediction about this future

climate, it starts with a general climate framework for this

future period, and then it applies several different climate

models (technically, General Circulation Models or GCMs). Each

model is a formula with a specific version of climate conditions

such as variations in precipitation or temperature.

Climate Futures

The scenario used as a background to the models is the

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). It imagines

that the world will be in a worst-case situation, a future of high

greenhouse gas emissions leading to significant global warming

and changes to global climate patterns. This does not mean

that this is the world to come. This extreme scenario is used

because it will clearly highlight the differences between the

results for each model applied. When these models are

deployed in this common RCP8.5 scenario, they will show

different, yet plausible patterns of temperature, precipitation,

and seasonal variability. Each model will describe the world

that might exist if its combination of climate variables and

processes comes true.

From these results, we can then analyze how the conditions it

predicts might influence the Tribe’s environmental, social, and

economic systems. For this reason, we describe each of these

models as a climate future (Fig. 8). Because each future will be

different, the whole process will highlight specific challenges

and opportunities tied to climate change, and the Tribe will be

better able to assess the risks and resilience strategies in these

different situations and scenarios.

Figure 9A-C illustrates the projected trends in temperature,

precipitation, and soil moisture under each climate future,

while Table 1 summarizes expected changes in key climate

hazards, such as flooding, drought, and wildfire.

Change in Annual Total Precipitation (in.)

Climate Future 1: The Trickster

The Trickster climate future, which was generated by the

National Centre of Meteorological Research CNRM-CM5 model,

represents a climate that could be described as deceptive and

uneven, where modest changes in temperature and

precipitation potentially conceal underlying disruptions to

ecosystems, water resources, and land health. This scenario is

characterized by the following anomalies:

Peaks and Valleys

HadGEM2-ES365

The Trickster

CNRM-CM5

Temperature Changes: Across all seasons, temperatures

are significantly warmer than the 1971-2000 base period,

with the largest anomalies in winter (+8°F) and the smallest

in spring (+4°F). The annual average temperature increases

by approximately 6°F, signaling a consistent warming trend

throughout the year.

Cracked Earth

CanESM2

-1

-2

Change in Annual Average Temperature (degrees F)

Figure 8. Mid-century (2040-2069, RCP8.5) projected changes for annual total

precipitation and annual average temperature for the 20 GCMs that are included in

the MACAv2-METDATA dataset. Orange circles show the models used in this

Assessment. The large spread among the different models underscores the

importance of exploring multiple models when conducting a vulnerability

assessment. Source [6].

Precipitation Changes: Despite an overall increase in

annual precipitation (+3%), the seasonal distribution is

uneven. A wetter winter (+19%) and spring (+15%) contrast

with a drier summer (-5%) and fall (-5%), leading to periods

of both excess and scarcity. Soil moisture declines across

all seasons, with annual reductions of -20%. Summer and

fall show a particularly large decline (-34% and -41%,

respectively).

Extreme Conditions: Under The Trickster, expect an

increase in extreme weather, with 19 additional days per

year where the heat index exceeds 100°F and an additional

8 days of "Extreme" Fire Danger annually. These extremes

increase risks to public health, agriculture, and ecosystems.

Extreme Conditions: The Peaks and Valleys climate

future could result in an additional 34 days per year with a

heat index of 100°F or higher, amplifying heat-related

health and agricultural stresses. Furthermore, 14 more

annual "Extreme" Fire Danger Days highlight increased

wildfire risks during hot, dry summers.

The Trickster future is deceptive in that its initial appearance

of wetter winters and springs, which enhance soil moisture and

water availability, seems beneficial; however, warmer

temperatures accelerate evaporation, leading to drier soils and

reduced runoff, particularly in summer and fall. This creates a

seemingly contradictory pattern where wetter winters and

springs may offer some benefits, while hotter, drier summers

and falls could still bring drought stress during the most critical

parts of the growing season. The warmer winters also disrupt

snowpack, further stressing water supplies in spring and

summer.

The Peaks and Valleys future scenario represents a

contrasting set of conditions: wet seasons could bring

opportunities for water resource recovery and vegetation

growth but also increase risks of flooding and soil erosion.

Conversely, the hot and dry summers could create water

scarcity, stress crops, and heighten fire danger. These

fluctuations could strain natural systems and infrastructure,

requiring adaptive strategies to navigate both the highs and

lows of this unpredictable future.

Ultimately, The Trickster poses significant challenges for land

productivity, water management, and ecosystem resilience.

Increased fire danger and prolonged heat stress exacerbate

vulnerabilities for communities and natural systems,

demanding adaptive strategies to navigate this unpredictable

and shifting climate.

The Cracked Earth climate future, produced by the Canadian

Earth System Model (CanESM2) shows a future climate with

significant warming, uneven precipitation patterns, and

heightened risks of extreme weather. This scenario shows the

following trends:

Climate Future 3: Cracked Earth

The Peaks and Valleys climate future produced by the Met

Office Hadley Centre (HadGEM2-ES365 model) shows

contrasting extremes, where pronounced seasonal variations in

temperature and precipitation could create significant

challenges for ecosystems, agriculture, and water management.

This scenario is defined by the following climate anomalies:

Temperature Changes: Annual mean temperatures

increase by +7°F, with summer seeing the largest increase

(+8°F). Minimum temperatures in winter are also

significantly warmer (+8°F), reducing cold extremes but

potentially disrupting some ecosystem functions reliant on

colder conditions. Days with heat indices ≥100°F increase by

+31 annually, with days ≥105°F rising by +18. This could

amplify risks to public health, infrastructure, and agriculture.

Temperature Shifts: Like The Trickster scenario,

temperatures are warmer across all seasons, with the

largest anomalies in winter (+13°F) and fall (+9°F). The

annual mean temperature rises by +9°F, indicating a

consistent warming trend from the 1971-2000 base period.

Summer (+8°F) is particularly significant due to its

intensifying heat stress and prolonged dry spells. The

extended growing season benefits crop productivity, but

extreme heat days and reduced frost chill hours may stress

heat-sensitive crops and ecosystems.

Precipitation Changes: Annual precipitation increases by

+5%, but the distribution is seasonal. Winter (+34%) and fall

(+20.1%) are wetter, while summer (-7%) is significantly

drier, stressing water availability during peak demand.

Annual soil moisture decreases (-6%), with summers seeing

a sharp decline of -52%. This would likely exacerbate

drought conditions and significantly reduce vegetation

growth and agriculture. Winter runoff significantly increases

(+330%), increasing flood risks, but summer runoff

decreases by -17%.

Precipitation Extremes: Annual precipitation increases

substantially compared to the base period (+11%), but the

seasonal distribution is more uneven. Winter (+38%) and fall

(+38%) both show significant increases in precipitation.

Spring is also expected to be wetter (+22%), but less so

compared to winter/fall. In contrast, summer trends (-14%)

show significant dryer conditions, creating prolonged dry

spells during critical periods for agriculture and ecosystems

in general. Altered water availability with wetter winters but

drier summers could strain water management systems,

increase flood risks, and exacerbate drought impacts.

Extreme Conditions: Annual extreme fire danger days

increase by +7.03, The combined heat, dryness, and

reduced fuel moisture amplify wildfire risks.

Climate Future 2: Peaks and Valleys

Ecosystem Impacts: The growing season increases by

over three weeks, supporting longer crop growth periods

but also increasing competition for water and vulnerability

to late-season drought. Earlier last spring freezes (-9.75

days) and later first fall freezes (+11.5 days) could disrupt

phenological cycles for plants and wildlife.

Section One

The Cracked Earth future depicts a challenging set of

conditions where warming temperatures and uneven water

availability stress ecosystems, agriculture, and the Lower Brule

community. The benefits of wetter winters and longer growing

seasons are countered by hotter, drier summers, reduced

snowpack, and increased risks of wildfires and heat stress. This

scenario calls for targeted strategies to optimize water

management, reduce fire risks, and build climate resilience in

both natural and human systems.

Horses on Lower Brule. Source: Sheldon Fletcher

Figure 9. Seasonal variation of temperature (panel A), precipitation (panel B), and soil moisture (panel C) for the three climate futures. Source [6].

A. Seasonal Average Temperature Change (°F)

Winter

Spring

Summer

B. Seasonal Precipitation (% change)

Winter

Fall

Spring

Summer

C. Seasonal Soil Moisture (% change)

Fall

Winter

Spring

Summer

Fall

100

-13

8.85

-13

The Trickster

37.74

-34

-41

8.33

6.11

6.20

6.17

21.70

7.60

7.33

6.09

4.39

7.89

The Trickster

Cracked Earth

-45

14.64

37.91

34.23

18.47

-13.58

7.30

Peaks & Valleys

-8

Peaks & Valleys

13.01

20.10

-20

Cracked Earth

-7.33

-10

-52

-9

The Trickster

Peaks & Valleys

Cracked Earth

-60

-40

-20

Table 1. Expected changes in key climate hazards among the different climate futures. Flooding is characterized as the heaviest 5-day rainfall increases by midcentury. The total number of days which are classified as extreme fire danger, are calculated as the days with 100-hour fuel moisture that is below the 3rd

percentile from historical years. A drought is characterized by conditions equal to or less than -0.8 using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index

(SPEI) on a 12-month timescale (SPEI-12). Drought frequency compares the number of droughts projected between 2040-2069 compared to what was estimated

in the base period of 1971-2000. Drought intensity: By 2031-2050, the chance of a drought as severe as 2012 above the 1981-2005 baseline of 65 percent per

decade. Drought duration compared the number of multi-year droughts (i.e., drought lasting two or more years) to the 1971-2000 base period. Data source:

Climate Toolbox (gridMET) time series. Sources [6-8].

Climate Feature

2040-2069

The Trickster

CNRM-CM5

Peaks and Valleys

HadGEM2-ES365

Cracked Earth

CanESM2

15%

58%

13%

Drought Frequency: Percent increase in the

number of droughts compared to 1971-2000.

82%

42%

75%

Drought Intensity: By 2031-2050, chance of a

drought as severe as 2012 (compared to the

1981 to 2005 baseline of 65% per decade).

per decade

Extreme Temperatures: Increase in days with

Heat Index >= 100 deg F.

Flooding: Percent increase in the heaviest 5day storms compared to 1971-2000.

Wildfire

Increase in summer “Extreme” fire danger days.

Drought Duration: Number of multi-year

droughts above the 1971-2000 baseline.

97%

57%

82%

Resource Vulnerabilities

Water Resources

The Trickster: Decreased soil moisture and runoff would lead

to reduced availability of water for agriculture, domestic use,

and ecosystem needs. Lower precipitation in summer and fall

would exacerbate water scarcity, stressing reservoirs and

groundwater supplies. Elevated temperatures would contribute

to more days with extreme heat (e.g., 19 additional days

≥100°F), intensifying water demand for agriculture, livestock,

and domestic use. Increased demand and potential distribution

system failures could threaten reliable access to potable water

if these trends are experienced broadly across the Mni Wiconi

system.

Peaks and Valleys: The combination of wetter seasonal and

annual conditions would increase water availability in

reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater. However, dry-hot summers

could cause temporary water shortages during peak

agricultural and recreational demand. High summer

temperatures combined with low water availability may also

degrade water quality, causing health impacts to our

community and livestock. This fluctuation may challenge water

management systems, increasing the risk of flooding during wet

seasons and acute water stress during dry periods.

Cracked Earth: Wet winters would help replenish the Missouri

River along with the various sources of groundwater vital for

domestic and municipal supplies, agriculture, and ecosystems

on the Reservation. However, warmer winters could reduce

snowpack in upstream areas, leading to lower water flow in late

spring and summer. With reduced surface water availability,

reliance on groundwater would increase, leading to overuse

with possible reductions in water quality. Maintenance of

drinking water systems was noted as a vulnerability (Water

Resources and Integrated Management Plan 2023), which could

further decline under the Cracked Earth future due to

increased demand and potential system failures.

Water Resources

Common Vulnerabilities

The three climate futures all show a complex relationship

between seasonal climate trends, water availability, and the

challenges they pose to water management. Some of the

specific common themes include:

Decreased Runoff and Soil Moisture: Across the Futures,

reductions in runoff and soil moisture affect water

availability for agriculture, ecosystems, and domestic use,

particularly during summer and fall.

Reliance on Groundwater: All scenarios point to

increased dependence on groundwater due to reduced

surface water availability, raising concerns about overuse

and declining water quality.

Rising Temperatures: Elevated temperatures increase

evaporation rates and exacerbate water demand across

sectors.

Extreme Heat Events: More days of extreme heat (e.g.,

days ≥100°F) are common, further straining water supplies

and systems.

System Failures: Increased demand, combined with

potential distribution system failures, emerges as a

consistent risk. Vulnerabilities in maintaining drinking water

systems and infrastructure (i.e., Mni Wiconi system) are

highlighted across all Futures.

Seasonal Extremes: While some Futures, like Peaks and

Valleys, predict wetter conditions in certain seasons, all

Futures deal with periods of low precipitation or dry

seasons that challenge water storage and distribution.

Flooding and Drought Risks: Wetter winters or seasons,

as seen in Peaks and Valleys and Cracked Earth, could

replenish reservoirs and groundwater but also increase

flood risks.

Decreased Surface Water Quality: High temperatures

and low water levels across all Futures may degrade water

quality, increasing risks of harmful algal blooms and

waterborne diseases.

Land Resources

The Trickster: Persistent low soil moisture would weaken soil

structure, increasing vulnerability to erosion. Moderately warm

temperatures may promote drought-tolerant invasive species,

reducing land productivity and ecological health. Increased

potential evapotranspiration would result in greater water loss

from soil, reducing agricultural productivity and making drought

recovery more difficult. An extended growing season could

allow for different crop choices but could also increase water

demand for crops during hotter months. Prolonged growing

seasons would also require more irrigation, putting pressure

on water resources and infrastructure. Declining forage quality

due to heat, drought, and invasive species could harm livestock

production on the Reservation. Additional heat stress from

more days with heat indices ≥100°F could also reduce crop

yields and increase water demand due to higher

evapotranspiration rates. The annual increase of "High" fire

danger days would increase the risk of wildfires, particularly

during dry summers and fallsand a drop in 100-hour fuel

moisture would exacerbate fire risks by making vegetation

more flammable.

Section One

Land Resources

Peaks and Valleys: Wet conditions in winter, spring, and fall

may enhance soil moisture and vegetation growth but could

also increase the risk of soil erosion and waterlogging in some

areas. Summer soil moisture, however, would decline sharply,

which would lead to reductions in soil moisture during the

critical growing season. Annual potential evapotranspiration

would rise significantly, due to higher temperatures, increasing

water demand from soil and plants. This would exacerbate

summer drought conditions despite higher annual

precipitation. More extreme heat days and higher

temperatures would increase the risk of heat stress and water

demand for crops like corn. Increased fall and spring runoff

could cause localized flooding, eroding riverbanks and

potentially damaging critical infrastructure near the Missouri

River.

An increase in annual "High" fire danger days could elevate

wildfire risks, particularly in areas where invasive species

increase fuel loads.

Heat Stress on Crops: Rising temperatures and more

extreme heat days (e.g., days with heat indices ≥100°F)

stress crops like corn, reducing yields and increasing

irrigation needs.

Water Demand: Higher evapotranspiration across all

scenarios elevates water demand for agriculture, straining

water resources and infrastructure.

Extended Growing Season: While a longer growing

season allows for new crop choices, it also increases the

need for water during hotter months, compounding

resource challenges.

Forage Quality Decline: Heat and drought conditions lead

to poor forage quality, harming livestock production and

requiring supplemental feeding.

Fire Risks: All scenarios report an increase in "High" fire

danger days, particularly during summer and fall. Reduced

fuel moisture further exacerbates wildfire risks, making

vegetation more flammable.

Invasive Species Contribution: Growth of invasive

species adds to fuel loads, amplifying wildfire hazards.

Localized Flooding: Wet winters and higher spring and fall

runoff could cause localized flooding, which threatens

riverbanks, critical infrastructure, and cultural sites near the

Missouri River.

Pressure on Water Resources: Declines in soil moisture

during summer and fall, coupled with increased

evapotranspiration, strain water supplies for agriculture and

ecosystems despite occasional wetter conditions.

Cracked Earth: Wet winters could enhance soil moisture

levels for the spring planting season, supporting the Tribe's

agricultural activities. However, warmer winters could cause

early soil saturation and erosion, potentially degrading grazing

lands and agricultural fields and increase localized flooding.

Stable spring precipitation may maintain agricultural

productivity, but the long-term sustainability of tribal lands

could be at risk due to climate-induced changes in soil

structure. For example, declines in summer and fall soil

moisture could increase vulnerability to wind and water

erosion, particularly in agricultural and rangeland areas. Higher

winter soil moisture may temporarily improve conditions but

could be offset by the overall decline in annual soil moisture.

Cultural Traditions

Land

Common Vulnerabilities

The three climatre Futures all exhibit fluctuations in

precipitation with impacts to soil health, land productivity, and

the broader ecosystem. Some of the specific common features

include:

Seasonal Soil Moisture Fluctuations: While wet winters

temporarily improve soil moisture, summer and fall

experience sharp declines in all scenarios, leading to drier

soils during critical growing periods.

Increased Erosion: Low soil moisture combined with

extreme weather patterns increases vulnerability to wind

and water erosion, particularly in agricultural and rangeland

areas. Wet winters may exacerbate water-driven erosion

due to early soil saturation and localized flooding.

Peaks and Valleys: The variability in climate may disrupt

traditional agricultural practices tied to specific seasons. While

wet conditions may support cultural practices like planting or

ceremonies related to water, the dry summer might hinder

harvests or gatherings that depend on consistent weather

conditions.

The Trickster: Increased soil erosion due to fluctuating soil

moisture and localized flooding from higher winter and spring

runoff could threaten culturally significant lands and sacred

sites near the Missouri River and other vulnerable areas.

Altered growing seasons and declining soil moisture could also

reduce the availability of traditional plants. Changes in water

availability and ecosystem health could reduce important fish

and wildlife populations. Increased heat stress and fire risks

may limit outdoor events and ceremonies.

Cracked Earth: Traditional practices tied to winter and spring,

such as ceremonies, could be disrupted by less predictable

seasonal patterns. However, wet winters may enhance waterdependent cultural practices. Warmer winters might reduce

the availability of culturally significant plants and wildlife that

are adapted to winters that are typically colder.

Cultural Traditions

Common Vulnerabilities: The three climate Futures share a

common thread in how changes in water availability, seasonal

variability, or changing temperatures may threaten the

continuity of traditional cultural practices. Some specific

common features include:

Altered seasonal patterns and less predictable weather may

disrupt traditional ceremonies and practices.

Increased soil erosion and localized flooding may jeopardize

culturally significant lands, particularly near vulnerable areas

like the Missouri River.

Shifts in growing seasons, warmer winters, and declining soil

moisture may reduce the availability of culturally significant

plants and wildlife.

Higher heat stress and increased wildfire risks limit outdoor

cultural events, ceremonies, and gatherings that rely on

stable environmental conditions.

Fish, Wildlife, & Recreation

The Trickster: Decreases in runoff and water availability

disrupt aquatic ecosystems, threatening fish populations and

habitats. Wildlife may struggle to find water sources, altering

migration patterns. Recreational activities such as fishing and

boating may also suffer due to lower water levels.

Peaks and Valleys: The wet periods could improve aquatic

ecosystems, which would benefit fish populations and increase

opportunities for recreational activities like fishing. However,

the dry summer may lead to temporary reductions in stream

flows and habitat quality, stressing wildlife and limiting

recreational activities at a time when the public expects to use

the resource and could lead to conflict.

Cracked Earth: Wet winters would benefit aquatic habitats

along the Missouri River, supporting important fish species,

however, warmer winters could disrupt migration and breeding

patterns of wildlife that the Tribe depends on for hunting.

Recreational activities, such as ice fishing or winter gatherings,

might decline due to inconsistent ice cover.

Fish, Wildlife, and Recreation

Common Vulnerabilities

Vulnerabilities consistent across the three climate futures

include:

Increasing variability of wet winters and springs might

improve aquatic habitat in some years, while in other years,

dry summers and declining stream flows could also stress

those same habitats, reducing habitat quality and

threatening culturally significant species.

Changes in water availability and seasonal patterns may

alter wildlife migration, breeding, and access to water

sources, affecting hunting and fishing opportunities.

Recreational activities like fishing and boating may benefit

from wetter periods but decline during dry summers or due

to inconsistent ice cover in warmer winters, potentially

limiting opportunities for traditional and social gatherings.

Public Health & Safety

The Trickster: The rise in summer temperatures and heat

indices could increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, such as

heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Vulnerable populations,

including elders and those with preexisting conditions, would

face heightened health risks. Prolonged droughts and extreme

weather could exacerbate stress, anxiety, and depression,

particularly for those who rely on agriculture for their

livelihoods. Increased temperatures combined with changes in

runoff could promote harmful algal blooms, increasing risks for

water supplies and recreational water use. This could lead to

health risks such as respiratory issues and skin irritation.

Increased wildfires due to more “High” fire danger days would

result in degraded air quality, causing respiratory problems and

exacerbating conditions such as asthma. Higher temperatures

would result in greater need and reliance on cooling systems,

which could stress energy infrastructure. Increased fire risks,

combined with insufficient fire response capacity and

emergency resources, could increase safety threats and impact

community health.

Peaks and Valleys: Similar to The Trickster, increased mean

temperatures and more frequent heat index days above 90°F,

100°F, and 105°F would likely exacerbate heat-related illnesses,

including heat stroke and dehydration. Vulnerable populations,

such as elders, children, and those with pre-existing health

conditions, are particularly at risk. Longer heatwaves could lead

to heat stress, requiring public health advisories and increased

cooling center access.

An increase in precipitation in the Peaks and Valleys Future

compared to The Trickster, could reduce some drought-related

stressors on public health. However, it would also increase the

risks of flooding and subsequent infrastructure damage, and

soil erosion, which could hinder access to emergency services.

While harmful algal bloom risks are present in The Trickster, the

larger temperature increases and summer runoff variability in

Peaks and Valleys could increase the risks of harmful algal

blooms and associated illnesses. The more intense shifts

between wet and dry conditions in Peaks and Valleys could

create greater uncertainty and stress for those reliant on

natural resources compared to the more consistent dryness of

The Trickster Future. Increased flooding and wildfire risks may

impose greater costs on the community for infrastructure

repair, fire management, and healthcare.

Section One

Cracked Earth: This climate future shows a more moderate

increase in temperatures, although there is still a substantial

increase in days with heat indices ≥90°F and ≥100°F. Water

availability would improve in winter and spring due to higher

precipitation and runoff, but flood risks could increase,

although not at the level of the Peaks and Valleys Future.

Health impacts from heat would be less severe in this future

due to fewer extreme heat days, but increased runoff and

flooding risks in winter and spring would pose challenges

absent in The Trickster Future. Compared to the Peaks and

Valleys Future, the Cracked Earth Future has a more stable

seasonal pattern, which could reduce mental health stressors

related to uncertainty. While the Peaks and Valleys future

creates health and safety risks from sharp wet-dry transitions,

this future’s moderate balance offers a less extreme variation.

Public Health and Safety

Common Vulnerabilities

Despite the differences in impacts and vulnerabilities among

the three climate futures, there are several areas of overlap.

These include:

Heat-Related Illnesses and Mortality: All futures involve

significant increases in temperature, leading to more

frequent extreme heat days (e.g., heat indices ≥90°F and

≥100°F). This raises the risk of heat-related illnesses such as

heat stroke, dehydration, and cardiovascular stress,

especially among vulnerable elders, children, and outdoor

workers.

Wildfire Risks and Air Quality: Increased "High" and

"Extreme" fire danger days are a shared vulnerability, as

smoke from increased wildfires will degrade air quality. This

exacerbates respiratory illnesses such as asthma and

bronchitis and increases hospital visits during fire-prone

periods.

Water Quality and Availability: Declines in summer soil

moisture and increased climatic water deficits threaten

water availability. Harmful algal blooms are a shared risk

across all scenarios due to warming water temperatures

and changing runoff patterns, affecting drinking water

quality and increasing risks of gastrointestinal and

respiratory illnesses.

Mental Health and Community Stress: Climate-induced

stressors, including heat, drought, flooding, and the

unpredictability of increased climate/weather variability,

elevate anxiety, depression, and other mental health

challenges. Economic pressures on land-based livelihoods,

such as farming and ranching, further contribute to mental

health issues.

Flooding and Infrastructure Damage: Increased winter

and spring runoff raises the risk of localized flooding,

damaging infrastructure, homes, and critical facilities. This

could also isolate parts of the Reservation, reducing access

to emergency services and posing public safety risks.

Emergency Preparedness Limitations: Across all futures,

the Tribe faces challenges with emergency response

capacity, including limited resources for firefighting, flood

management, and public health advisories. These gaps

increase vulnerabilities during extreme events.

Ditch flooding during a storm. Source: Larry Jandreaur

Focused Climate Risk

Analysis for Species and

Tribal Systems

To complement the resource-level Assessment presented

above, which covered water, land, cultural traditions, fish,

wildlife, and recreation, and public health and safety, a more

detailed analysis was conducted for several specific plant and

animal species, as well as key Tribal infrastructure and services.

This deeper assessment allowed us to assess vulnerabilities

and risks that may not be fully captured at the broader

resource scale.

The species selected reflect their importance to our food

systems, traditional practices, and ecological health. By

examining projected climate impacts, such as changes in

habitat suitability, breeding cycles, or water dependence we can

better understand how these stressors may affect fish and

wildlife populations, ecosystems, and cultural lifeways.

Likewise, evaluating the vulnerability and risk to infrastructure

and essential services helps identify potential challenges to

long-term community resilience and safety.

For each resource, risk was estimated based on vulnerability

times the degree of hazard pressure. This was done for each

climate future, then weighted to the primary driver hazard if

one clearly dominated. The model whose projected changes do

the most to explain the overall risk is considered the primary

climate future. When models disagree, we favor the one that

shows a consistent pattern across several measures.

We then categorized risks by:

Low Risk (LR): Status quo is adequate under projected

hazards. Monitor and keep routine maintenance or

stewardship.

Medium Risk (MR): Emerging concerns. Plan low-cost

adjustments and start targeted monitoring; conduct a pilot

adaptation project where feasible.

High Risk (HR): Clear risk under one or more futures.

Prioritize adaptation projects, secure funding, and set

timelines.

Very High Risk (VHR): Likely and consequential impacts

without intervention. Immediate action, contingency

planning, and sustained investment are warranted.

Tables 2 to 4 summarize findings for key plant species, wildlife,

and Tribal infrastructure and services, showing how climate

change may affect not only land and water but also the systems

and traditions that sustain the Kul Wicasa Oyate.

New Lower Brule townsite after relocation, circa 1970.

Aerial view of the community built on higher benchlands following construction of Big Bend Dam and the creation of Lake Sharpe. New housing,

community buildings, and the water tower are laid out along newly graded roads after the former river bottom townsite was flooded. (Branch of

Land Operations, BIA). Source: Sheldon Fletcher

Section One

Table 2. Risk assessment of culturally and ecologically important plant species under future climate scenarios. Each row lists a species followed by observed or

anticipated climate impacts, its sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and modeled risk projections for the three climate futures: The Trickster (CNRM-CM5), Peaks and

Valleys (HadGEM2-ES), and Cracked Earth (CanESM2). Risk categories include Very High Risk (VHR), High Risk (HR), Medium Risk (MR), and Low Risk (LR). This table

illustrates how shifts in climate may affect food systems, traditional practices, and native plant communities. Lakota names are listed below each species name [9].

Risk Profile for Key Native & Culturally Significant Plant Species

The Risk Profile ranks key native and culturally significant plant species based on degree of vulnerability times the magnitude of the hazard pressure. Species

with high vulnerability (highly sensitive with low adaptive capacity) and severe hazard pressure (modeled strength of climate stress such as drought, heat, or

flooding) are at greatest risk, guiding conservation priorities to protect ecologically and culturally significant plants.

To complement the resource-level Assessment presented

above, which covered water, land, cultural traditions, fish,

Very High

wildlife, and recreation, and

public health and safety, a more

Cedar

Risk

(invasive)

detailed analysis was conducted

for several specific plant and

animal species, as well as key Tribal infrastructure and services.

High

This deeper assessment allowed us to assess vulnerabilities

Risk

Sweet Flag at the

Chokecherry

that may not be fully captured

broader resource scale.

Medium

Risk

Prairie Turnip

Echinacea

Buffaloberry

Sweetgrass

Wild Plum

Risk

Breakdown

Currants

Low

Risk

Sage

Climate Future

Potential & Historical Impacts

Sensitivity

Adaptive

Capacity

Buffalo Berry

Masticapute

Extended droughts could reduce flowering and fruit set, especially

during early spring bud development. Seedling establishment and

regeneration could decline due to reduced germination, shallowroot desiccation, and higher seedling mortality; mature plants may

experience canopy dieback and greater susceptibility to pests and

fire. This risk is most pronounced under The Trickster because

wetter winters and springs are followed by hotter, drier summers

and falls with declining soil moisture.

Medium-High

Cedar (Invasive)

Hante

Cedar spreads more quickly when fires are less frequent and

seasons are warmer. Thick stands shade out native grasses and

forbs, reduce forage, dry soils, and use more water in draws, which

can lower spring and stream flow. Dense thickets also add ladder

fuels that make range fires burn hotter and raise control costs,

while fragmenting habitat for grouse and other grassland species.

This risk is most pronounced under Peaks and Valleys because

wetter winters and falls help cedar seedlings establish, and the very

hot, dry summers weaken grass competition and lengthen the

growing season, allowing cedar recruitment to outpace control

unless fire is used regularly.

The Trickster

“Soil Depletion”

Peaks and

Valleys

“Seasonal

Extremes”

Cracked

Earth

“Moderate

Variability”

Medium

High

VHR

Chokecherry

Chanpha

Reduced soil moisture can weaken roots and lower fruit yield.

Delayed or failed flowering disrupts fruiting cycles. Increased

wildfires can destroy chokecherry thickets, kill cambium in trees,

and remove seed sources; heat and late frosts can also scorch

blossoms and suppress pollinators. This risk is most pronounced

under The Trickster because wetter winters and springs are

followed by hotter, drier summers and falls with declining soil

moisture, amplifying heat stress during flowering and fruiting and

increasing fire susceptibility.

Medium-High

Medium

Currants

Chapcheyazala-Black

Currants

Wichagnaska huGolden/Buffalo

Currants

Drought reduces berry production and stresses both mature plants

and seedlings. Shallow soils or slopes dry faster, leading to root

desiccation, poor seedling establishment, and higher mortality.

Early warm spells can trigger bud break and flowering, which are

then damaged by a late frost, reducing fruit set and weakening

plants for the season; pollinator timing can also fall out of sync. This

risk is most pronounced under Cracked Earth because wetter

winters and falls are followed by significantly drier summers,

overall soil moisture declines, and earlier spring warmth increases

the chance that a late frost will hit sensitive buds and flowers.

Medium-High

Low-Medium

Plants

Climate Future

Potential & Historical Impacts

Sensitivity

Adaptive

Capacity

The

Trickster

“Soil

Depletion”

Peaks and

Valleys

“Seasonal

Extremes”

Cracked

Earth

“Moderate

Variability”

Echinacea

Ichahpe hu

Faster plant growth can coincide with reduced medicinal potency due to

changes in secondary compounds. Early flowering may cause pollinator

mismatch, lowering seed production and recruitment; heat and dryness also

increase seedling mortality and stress mature plants. This risk is most

pronounced under Cracked Earth because substantial warming, a longer

warm season, and more very hot days increase evaporative demand and

summer soil moisture loss, amplifying heat stress and phenological

mismatch.

High

Medium

Prairie Turnip

Thinpsila

Fewer native bees and other pollinators reduce successful seed set. Disrupted

dispersal limits natural regeneration; lower genetic diversity and more

fragmented stands raise extinction risk at dry margins. Heat and moisture

stress cut nectar production and seed viability, shorten flowering windows,

and reduce seedling survival. This risk is most pronounced under Peaks and

Valleys because strong seasonal extremes with hot dry summers, high

evaporative demand, and soil moisture deficits compress flowering and

foraging windows and depress recruitment.

High

Medium

Sagebrush

Phezi hota Thoth o

Heat stress could reduce plant vigor, leading to thinner leaves and lower

essential oil content, which reduces ceremonial and medicinal quality. Earlier

flowering may disrupt pollinator timing and harvest schedules, lowering seed

set and recruitment; heat and dryness can also scorch flower heads and

suppress regrowth after cutting. This risk is most pronounced under Peaks

and Valleys because it shows the largest warming signal with many additional

high heat index days, increasing evaporative demand, compressing the

flowering window, and further depressing oil production.

Medium

Medium-High

Sweet Flag

Sinkpe thawote

Loss of wetland habitat from prolonged drought causes die off or failure to

regenerate on exposed soils. Root systems desiccate, rhizomes and seedlings

die back, and organic mats oxidize and subside; lowered water tables invite

invasive upland species, concentrate nutrients, and degrade water quality.

Repeated dry downs fragment habitat and increase fire risk in emergent

vegetation. This risk is most pronounced under Cracked Earth because wetter

winters and falls are followed by significantly drier summers and annual soil

moisture declines, leading to longer drawdowns and more frequent complete

dry outs.

MediumHigh

Low-Medium

Sweetgrass

Phezi wachanga

Heat stress could reduce plant height and thin leaves, affecting ceremonial

use. Higher temperatures may cause earlier flowering, leading to

misalignment with pollinators and traditional harvest timing, which lowers

seed set and braid quality; repeated hot spells and dry soils also shorten

regrowth intervals and reduce tiller density. This risk is most pronounced

under Peaks and Valleys because it shows the largest warming signal with

many additional high heat index days, raising evaporative demand, shrinking

the flowering window, and intensifying summer water stress.

MediumHigh

Medium

Wild Plum

Khanta

Early warm spells can push buds and flowers to open too soon. If cold returns,

blossoms and new shoots can be killed, wiping out the year’s fruit and leaving

damage that invites pests and disease. Repeated false springs drain stored

energy, weaken plants, reduce new growth, and throw off timing with

pollinators. This risk is most pronounced under Cracked Earth because

warmer winters and early springs make plants break dormancy earlier and

the season runs longer; when a late cold snap still arrives, even a brief freeze

causes more damage, and more hot days make plants lose cold hardiness

while frost is still possible.

MediumHigh

Medium

Plants

Indian Relay Race, Annual Kul Wicasa Wacipi (PowWow), Fair and Rodeo 2025. Source: Sheldon Fletcher

Section One

Table 3. Risk assessment of culturally and ecologically important wildlife species under future climate scenarios. Each row lists a species, the observed or

anticipated climate impacts, its sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and modeled risk projections for the three climate futures: The Trickster (CNRM-CM5), Peaks and

Valleys (HadGEM2-ES), and Cracked Earth (CanESM2). Risk categories are Very High Risk (VHR), High Risk (HR), Medium Risk (MR), and Low Risk (LR). This table

shows how changing temperature, water, and habitat conditions may affect subsistence, treaty harvests, and ecosystem balance, and helps set priorities for

habitat work, monitoring, and protective measures. Lakota names are listed below each species name [10-12]

Risk Profile for Key Native & Culturally Significant Wildlife Species

The Risk Profile ranks key native and culturally significant wildlife species based on degree of vulnerability times the magnitude of the hazard pressure. Species

with high vulnerability (highly sensitive with low adaptive capacity) and severe hazard pressure (modeled strength of climate stress such as drought, heat, or

flooding) are at greatest risk, guiding conservation priorities to protect ecologically and culturally significant wildlife..

To complement the resource-level Assessment presented

above, which covered water, land, cultural traditions, fish,

Very High

wildlife, and recreation, and public health and safety, a more

Risk

Catfish

Sharp-tail

Grouse specific plant and

detailed analysis was conducted

for several

animal species, as well as key Tribal infrastructure and services.

High

This deeper assessment allowed us to assess vulnerabilities

Black-Footed

Risk

Badger

Ferret/Prairie

Dog

that may not be fully captured

atBeaver

the broader

resource

scale.

Buffalo

Medium

Risk

Low

Risk

Deer/Antelope

Eagles

Elk

Weasel

Risk

Breakdown

Waterfowl

Coyote

Walleye

Porcupine

Raccoon

Skunk

Vermin

Climate Future

Species

Potential & Historical Impacts

Sensitivity

Adaptive

Capacity

The Trickster

“Soil Depletion”

Peaks and Valleys

“Seasonal

Extremes”

Cracked Earth

“Moderate

Variability”

Badger

Hoka

Increased wildfire frequency reduces vegetative

cover, which can temporarily decrease prey and

expose badgers to predators, heat stress, smoke,

and den loss. This risk is most pronounced under

Cracked Earth because heat and summer dryness

reduce fuel moisture and increase wildfire risk.

High

Medium

Beaver

Capa

Sudden high-flow events from intense storms may

wash out dams and lodges, especially in incised or

unstable channels. This risk is most pronounced

under Cracked Earth because higher winter runoff

increases flood potential, though summer flows

drop.

Medium

Black-Footed Ferret

Pispiza Utopia sapa

& Prairie Dog

Pispiza

Heat stress may reduce activity levels, making it

harder for ferrets to hunt prairie dogs. Warmer

temperatures could reduce reproductive success,

lowering litter sizes. Increased heat can also shift

prairie dog activity to cooler hours, further reducing

hunting overlap, and raise dehydration and disease

risks for ferrets. This risk is most pronounced under

The Trickster because significant warming across

seasons, including warmer winters, increases

evaporative demand and cumulative heat exposure.

High

Medium

Buffalo

Tatanka

Heat stress reduces buffalo weight gain, fertility,

and overall health. Fewer water sources and

increased water needs force longer travel to water,

raising energy expenditure and exposure. Hot, dry

spells lower forage quality and shade availability,

compounding thermal load and increasing

dehydration risk, especially for calves and older

animals. This risk is most pronounced under Peaks

and Valleys because it shows the largest warming

signal and many additional high heat index days,

extending and intensifying periods of heat stress.

High

Medium

Climate Future

Species

Potential & Historical Impacts

Sensitivity

Adaptive

Capacity

Catfish

Howasapa

Drought and upstream diversions reduce base flows in tributary

streams, degrading spawning habitat and nursery conditions. Lower

summer flows warm more quickly, reducing dissolved oxygen,

increasing metabolic stress, and concentrating pollutants; this can shift

spawning timing, lower egg and larval survival, and raise risks of

disease and harmful algal blooms. This risk is most pronounced under

Peaks and Valleys because strong seasonal extremes with hot dry

summers, high evaporative demand, and soil moisture deficits push

summer temperatures higher while reducing flows.

MediumHigh

Coyote

Sunmanitu

Warmer winters may improve juvenile survival, extend foraging

windows, and reduce winter stress. Denning success may increase,

leading to higher overwinter survival, earlier breeding, larger litters,

and population growth that expands range, elevates disease

transmission, and increases conflicts with people and domestic

animals. This risk is most pronounced under Peaks and Valleys because

the largest winter warming signal, along with many additional high

heat index days overall, reduces cold-related mortality and lengthens

the active season.

Deer

Tahca

Antelope

Tato Kala

The Trickster

“Soil

Depletion”

Peaks and

Valleys

“Seasonal

Extremes”

Cracked

Earth

“Moderate

Variability”

Medium

Low

High

Declining plant diversity from drought and extreme weather reduces

available forage and increases competition with livestock for

resources. Soil erosion and desertification reduce carrying capacity,

degrade riparian areas, and limit water infiltration, forcing longer

movements for forage and water. This risk is most pronounced under

Cracked Earth because wetter winters and falls are followed by

significantly drier summers and annual soil moisture declines,

intensifying multi-year water deficits.

High

Medium

Eagle

Wabli

Reduced fish populations in the Missouri River and other body of

waters. Declining wetlands cut prey availability, especially waterfowl

and shorebirds. Prolonged low flows warm and deoxygenate water,

increasing fish stress and kills; eagles must range farther, raising

energy costs and lowering nest success. This risk is most pronounced

under Peaks and Valleys because strong seasonal extremes with hot,

dry summers, high evaporative demand, and soil moisture deficits

could depress summer flows and shrink wetlands.

MediumHigh

Medium

Elk

Hehaka

Increased body stress and dehydration reduce activity and can drive

population declines. Heat stress can lower breeding success, especially

if rutting overlaps late summer heat waves; poorer body condition

reduces conception rates and calf or fawn survival. This risk is most

pronounced under Peaks and Valleys because the largest warming

signal with many additional high heat index days prolongs hot dry

spells and intensifies water deficits.

High

Medium

Porcupine

Pahi

Drought reduces the nutritional value and availability of cottonwood,

willow, buffaloberry, and other browse. Porcupines must range

farther, lose body condition, face higher late-winter mortality, and

shift toward shelterbelts and buildings as wildfire and dieback reduce

denning sites and shade. This risk is most pronounced under PeaksValleys because strong seasonal contrasts produce hot dry summers

with high evaporative demand and soil moisture deficits, depressing

browse quality and availability when needs are highest.

MediumHigh

Low-Medium

Racoon

Wiciteglega

Denser populations and longer activity periods can increase

transmission of rabies, distemper, leptospirosis, and Baylisascaris;

higher overwinter survival and earlier breeding will expand numbers

and range; more nest predation on ground-nesting birds and greater

conflicts around dumpsters, pet food, and livestock barns. Hotter,

drier summers then concentrate animals at limited water sources and

near people, raising contact rates. This risk is most pronounced under

The Trickster because wetter, warmer winters and springs boost

survival and food availability, followed by drying in summer and fall

with declining soil moisture that pushes animals into developed areas,

amplifying disease spread and human-wildlife conflicts.

Low

High

Sharp-tail Grouse

Casiyo

Drought reduces forb and insect abundance that chicks rely on. Dry

conditions thin nesting and brood cover, exposing hens and chicks to

predators and heat, increasing nest abandonment, lowering hatch

rates, and reducing brood survival; limited green-up near leks

fragments habitat and shortens the brood-rearing window. This risk is

most pronounced under Peaks and Valleys because strong seasonal

extremes with hot, dry summers, high evaporative demand, and soil

moisture deficits suppress forb bloom and insect emergence and leave

nesting cover sparse during the critical rearing period.

High

Low

Section One

Climate Future

Species

Potential & Historical Impacts

Sensitivity

Adaptive

Capacity

Skunk

Maka

Warmer winters shorten torpor, so animals stay active, eat more, and start

breeding earlier. Higher overwinter survival leads to larger spring

populations and sometimes more litters per year. More winter foraging

around homes, barns, and dumpsters raises property damage, predation on

ground nesting birds, and contamination of feed and stored food. Longer

mild seasons also extend parasite and disease cycles (rabies, distemper,

leptospirosis), increasing risk to pets and people. This risk is most

pronounced under Cracked Earth because substantial warming and a longer

warm season reduce winter die off and expand active months, allowing

populations to grow while conflicts and disease pressure rise.

Low

Vermin

(ItukalaMouse; Itunk

Tanka-Rat)

Drought reduces natural food and water, pushing mice, rats, raccoons, and

starlings into gardens, buildings, and food storage areas. Warmer winters

boost survival and earlier breeding, driving larger infestations, food

contamination, property damage, and higher risks of rabies, leptospirosis,

and salmonella. This risk is most pronounced under Peaks and Valleys

because strong seasonal extremes with hot dry summers and high

evaporative demand deplete natural forage and water, concentrating pests

around homes and facilities while milder winters sustain higher populations

into spring.

Walleye

(Hogancommon

name for

fish)

The Trickster

“Soil

Depletion”

Peaks and

Valleys

“Seasonal

Extremes”

Cracked Earth

“Moderate

Variability”

Medium-High

Low

High

Spring water-level swings and hot, dry summers could cut walleye spawning

success and shrink summer habitat. Eggs could be left dry if levels drop;

warm surface water and low oxygen deeper down leave fewer safe places for

fish. Primary driver climate future: Peaks and Valleys if spring flow swings

dominate; Cracked Earth if summer heat and low water dominate. Peaks and

Valleys brings the biggest spring runoff pulses, making steady levels for eggs

and young fish harder to maintain. Cracked Earth brings long, hot summers

and lower summer flows that warm the shallows and reduce cool, welloxygenated refuge unless cold releases are used.

High

Medium

Waterfowl

(MagasapaGoose; BlezaPelican)

Heat stress can lower survival, especially for hatchlings and nesting birds.

Warmer water disrupts food webs, reducing insect and aquatic plant

production that broods depend on. As wetlands shrink and become shallow,

salinity and temperature rise, algal blooms and avian botulism become more

likely, and thinning emergent cover exposes nests to predators. Crowding on

the remaining water increases competition, disease spread, and disturbance;

late summer dry downs can strand broods and reduce fledging success. This

risk is most pronounced under Peaks and Valleys because the largest

warming signal and many additional very hot days, combined with hot dry

summers and high evaporative demand, accelerate wetland drying during

the brood rearing season despite wetter cool seasons.

MediumHigh

Medium

Weasel

Itukasa

Weasels need a high daily intake; drought driven declines in small mammals

can lead to starvation, poor body condition, and fewer successful litters.

Reduced and patchy snow cover creates camouflage mismatch, with white

coats on bare ground increasing detection by predators and alerting prey.

Rain on snow and frequent freeze–thaw events collapse subnivean tunnels,

remove thermal refuge, and disrupt hunting; crusted surfaces also aid

predators while exposing weasels during travel. This risk is most pronounced

under Peaks and Valleys because it combines the strongest winter warming

(snow loss, rain on snow, camouflage mismatch, subnivean collapse) with

hot, dry summers that depress small-mammal prey and cover. Secondary:

Cracked Earth due to wetter winters but very hot and dry summers, which

could decrease rodent prey and protective cover, and raises predation and

energetic stress. Rain on snow can still occur, but the dominant pressure is

summer drought on prey and cover.

MediumHigh

Medium

Lower Brule Tribal Building at dusk. Source: Sheldon Fletcher

Table 4. Risk assessment of essential Tribal infrastructure and community services on the Reservation under future climate scenarios. Each row lists a facility or

service, the observed or anticipated climate impacts, its sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and modeled risk projections: The Trickster (CNRM-CM5), Peaks and

Valleys (HadGEM2-ES), and Cracked Earth (CanESM2). Risk categories include Very High Risk (VHR), High Risk (HR), Medium Risk (MR), and Low Risk (LR). This table

highlights how climate shifts may affect operations, safety, access, and economic stability, and helps prioritize near term actions and investments.

Risk Profile for Key Infrastructure & Services

The Risk Profile ranks essential Tribal infrastructure and community services by combining vulnerability with the magnitude of climate hazard pressure. Assets

with high vulnerability (high sensitivity and limited adaptive capacity) and strong hazard pressure (for example drought, heat, flooding, wind, or wildfire) have the

greatest risk. These results guide priorities for upgrades, maintenance, redundancy, siting, and emergency operations so the Tribe can protect public health,

keep services accessible, and maintain economic stability.

To complement the resource-level Assessment presented

above, which covered water, land, cultural traditions, fish,

Wastewater

Patient

Very High

Treatment:

Lagoon a more

Transport

wildlife, and recreation, and

public health

and safety,

Risk

Ponds

Program

detailed analysis was conducted for several specific plant and

animal species, as well as key Tribal infrastructure and services.

Lower Brule

High

Lower Brule

This deeper assessment allowed usFarm

to &assess

Ranch vulnerabilities

Health Center

Golden Buffalo

Risk

that may not be fully captured

at the broader resource scale.

Casino

Medium

Risk

Low

Risk

Road Network

Lower Brule

Schools

Risk

Breakdown

Commodity Food

Distribution Program

Community Center

Climate Future

Potential & Historical Impacts

Sensitivity

Adaptive Capacity

The

Trickster

“Soil

Depletion”

Peaks and

Valleys

“Seasonal

Extremes”

Cracked

Earth

“Moderate

Variability”

Golden Buffalo Casino

Higher cooling costs result from increased air conditioning

demand. Heat stress for staff and guests can reduce visits and

time on site. Increased wear on HVAC shortens equipment life and

raises failure risk during peak demand, especially if the grid is

strained. This risk is most pronounced under The Trickster and

Peaks and Valleys because sustained warming across seasons and

more days with heat index at or above 100°F lengthen the cooling

season and push peak loads higher, increasing the chance of

equipment failure and service disruptions.

High

Medium

VHR

Lower Brule

Community Center

Extreme heat can drive up cooling demand, raising operating costs

and stressing older HVAC systems. High indoor temperatures

reduce occupant comfort and safety, increase heat illness risk for

elders and children, and can force service interruptions. Prolonged

heat can also degrade electronics, shorten equipment life, and

require temporary cooling centers or backup power to maintain

safe conditions. This risk is most pronounced under Peaks and

Valleys because it shows the largest warming signal with many

additional high heat index days, leading to longer, more frequent

heat waves and limited overnight relief.

Medium

Lower Brule Commodity

Food Distribution

Program

Heat stress on perishable foods (e.g., dairy, frozen meats, fresh

produce) can cause spoilage during storage or transport. Higher

energy demand for refrigeration raises operating costs and the

risk of equipment overload or failure. Prolonged heat waves

increase cold chain breaks during loading and delivery, especially

if there are power interruptions, and can limit safe work hours for

staff, causing delays. This risk is most pronounced under Peaks

and Valleys because substantial warming with a longer warm

season and more heat days extends peak cooling demand and

heightens the likelihood of outages and transport delays.

High

Medium

Building/Service

Section One

Climate Future

Building/Service

Potential & Historical Impacts

Sensitivity

Adaptive

Capacity

The

Trickster

“Soil

Depletion”

Peaks and

Valleys

“Seasonal

Extremes”

Cracked

Earth

“Moderate

Variability”

Lower Brule Farm &

Ranch

Reduced soil moisture and irrigation shortages lower crop yields. Greater

dependence on pumping and hauling raises costs and strains limited

water rights and delivery systems. Repeated dry downs and erratic

storms accelerate soil degradation through crusting, wind erosion,

salinization on poorly drained fields, and loss of organic matter. Heat and

water stress shorten grain fill and raise livestock water demand,

squeezing operations. This risk is most pronounced under The Trickster

because winter and spring moisture do not carry into summer; hotter,

drier late seasons and higher evapotranspiration create the largest

mismatch between peak crop water demand and available supply.

High

Medium

Lower Brule Indian

Health Center

Increased heat-related illness and more cardiovascular and respiratory

events affect elders, infants, and people with chronic conditions. Higher

cooling demand raises costs and outage risk, and reduces safe outdoor

work and activity windows. This risk is most pronounced under Cracked

Earth because sustained warming, a longer warm season, and many more

very hot days increase cumulative heat exposure and peak electricity

loads.

High

Medium

Lower Brule Road

Network

Washed out roads and bridges can isolate residents and emergency

services. Erosion undercuts shoulders, clogs culverts with sediment and

debris, and destabilizes embankments, driving up maintenance and

emergency repair costs. Repeated saturation weakens the road base and

leads to potholes, slumps, and culvert overtopping. This risk is most

pronounced under Peaks and Valleys because it produces the largest

increases in winter and fall precipitation leading to more frequent

overtopping and washouts. A secondary concern remains under Cracked

Earth, where very wet winters and rain on snow events can still

overwhelm drainage and damage low crossings.

MediumHigh

Low-Medium

Lower Brule Schools

Poor air quality can raise student asthma and respiratory illness. Outdoor

sports and activities may be canceled during hazardous air days. Heat

drives up classroom temperatures and HVAC load, while wildfire smoke

infiltrates buildings, elevating indoor PM2.5 and forcing filtration

upgrades, schedule changes, or temporary closures. This risk is most

pronounced under Cracked Earth because heat and summer dryness

reduce fuel moisture and increase wildfire risk, lengthening the smoke

season and compounding indoor heat and air quality problems.

High

Medium

Lower Brule Patient

Transport Program

Heat stress increase for elderly and chronically ill patients during long

transport; in-cabin temperatures threaten comfort and safety.

Continuous air conditioning raises fuel use and failure risk; vehicles face

more overheating and tire blowouts; temperature-sensitive medications

need stricter cold-chain management; driver fatigue and delays increase

under sustained heat. This risk is most pronounced under Peaks and

Valleys because the largest warming signal and many additional high

heat index days prolong heat waves, elevate road and cabin

temperatures, and push peak cooling demand during transport.

High

Low-Medium

Wastewater Treatment:

Lagoon Ponds

Heavy storms can overwhelm lagoon berms or bypasses, causing

overtopping, erosion, liner damage, and unpermitted discharges. Runoff

surges dilute and short-circuit treatment, carry sediment and trash, and

weaken embankments through prolonged high water. This risk is most

pronounced under Peaks and Valleys because winter and fall are much

wetter and annual runoff increases the most, driving more frequent high

inflow pulses and saturation around the cells. A secondary concern

persists under Cracked Earth due to very wet winters and rain-on-snow

events that can still overwhelm drainage even though summers are drier.

MediumHigh

Low-Medium

VHR

Lower Brule Rural

Water Project

Lower river stages can reduce intake depth and safe pumping rates.

Prolonged dry spells build sand bars around the intake, clog screens, and

raise turbidity when storms finally arrive. Warm, slow moving water

concentrates nutrients and organics, increasing taste and odor episodes,

algal blooms, and chemical demand at the plant. Very low levels can draw

air into pumps and force shutdowns. Hotter summers also push peak-day

demand higher (household use, lawn and garden, cooling), straining

storage and treatment capacity exactly when supply is most constrained.

This risk is most pronounced under The Trickster because wetter winters

and springs are followed by hot, dry summers with declining soil

moisture, which reduce summer base flows and pool elevations when

demand is highest. A close secondary driver is Peaks and Valleys because

it produces the largest increase in very hot days, further elevating peak

demand and treatment loads.

High

Low-Medium

VOICES OF THE KUL

WICASA OYATE

Listening to the People

Section Two

Community Engagement

Community Meeting

To help guide the development of the Plan, we hosted a

community meeting focused on gathering input from Tribal

members. The goal was to create space for community voices to

share how climate change is impacting the plants, animals,

infrastructure, and cultural lifeways of the Reservation, and to

identify shared concerns and priorities moving forward.

Approximately 70 people attended.

In the weeks leading up to the event, outreach included flyers

posted around the community, notices sent home with

students, and announcements shared through Tribal

communication channels. Students also received climatefocused materials to take home, sparking family discussions and

encouraging participation. At the event, youth were recognized

for their engagement with small prizes and gift cards.

The meeting opened with a welcome, a blessing, and an

overview of the planning process. A brief presentation shared

local climate trends and invited participants to reflect on what

they’ve observed, warmer winters, shifting seasons, or drier

summers, and how those changes are affecting daily life.

The heart of the meeting focused on discussion and listening.

Tribal members worked through a community questionnaire

together, sharing stories, concerns, and suggestions.

Participants identified specific climate impacts and offered ideas

for how the Tribe can adapt.

Ideas Expressed at the Meeting

Every plant has a purpose.

If one fruit tree is destroyed, others will be

affected.

Birds, bees, and butterflies matter. Our

schools and Wopasi are already doing the

work.

Try to implement sustainable agriculture.

Let’s use wind, solar, geothermal. That will

create jobs for our people.

Storm shelters. Back-up freezers. Places we

can go when things get bad.

Being able to sustain ourselves is more

important than just transportation.

Key themes included:

Vulnerability Assessment: Understanding how climate

change may impact different parts of Tribal life

Plants and Wildlife: Noticing shifts in species important to

food, traditions, and ecosystems

Infrastructure and Homes: Exploring risks to buildings,

roads, and essential services

Livelihoods and Traditions: Discussing impacts on farming,

hunting, fishing, and cultural practices

This conversation was an important step in ensuring that the

Adaptation Plan is grounded in the lived experiences, values,

and vision of the Kul Wicasa Oyate.

Community Perspectives Many of us have already noticed hotter summers,

drier conditions, stronger storms, and changes in

on Climate Change

animal patterns. Others shared ideas for how we can

To guide the Plan, we asked members of our

community to share their experiences, concerns, and

ideas about the changes we are seeing in our

environment. This survey was created to make sure

the voices of our people were front and center in

shaping how the Tribe responds to a changing

climate.

We know that climate change will likely affect the

plants we gather, the animals we hunt, the water we

rely on, and even the roads we travel. Through the

survey, we asked people what worries them most,

what changes they have noticed, and how the Tribe

should prepare for what lies ahead. We also asked

how concerned they are about impacts on the land,

cultural traditions, and the health of our families.

respond like building stronger infrastructure,

improving emergency preparedness, or focusing on

food and water security.

This section of the Plan highlights what we heard. It

reflects the real experiences and concerns of the

people who live here and care for this land. Our goal

is to use this input to guide future planning, so our

response to climate change reflects the values and

priorities of our people, the .

The following pages summarize the results of the

survey.

Enrolled member

Enrolled member of another tribe

Descendent of an enrolled member

Tribal Affiliation

Descendent of an enrolled member of another tribe

Over 80% of the survey respondents were enrolled

members of Lower Brule. Over 100 total responses

to the survey were received.

Spouse or Partner of enrolled member

None of the Above

Age of Respondents

Participants represented a broad age range, with

particularly strong input from those aged 35 to 64,

who made up over half of all responses.

20%

40%

60%

80%

25%

20%

15%

10%

Under 18

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75-84

85+

100%

Section Two

How concerned are you about the effects of climate

change on the land and natural resources important to

the community?

What worries you most about potential changes to the

climate? Please rank the following (1 = most worrisome; 6

= least worrisome). Select N/A if a responses is not

applicable.

Most Worrisom

Extremely concerned

Least Worrisome

Flooding

Very concerned

Extreme heat/Heat waves

Moderately concerned

Bigger snow and ice storms

Slightly concerned

Drought

Wildfires

Not at all

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Severe thunderstorms/tornadoes

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

What changes in the climate or environment have you

noticed in recent years? Please check all that apply.

Many in the community expressed concern about

the impacts of climate change. Flooding and drought

emerged as the top concerns, with additional

worries about rising temperatures, dry conditions,

and the increasing frequency of severe storms.

Many respondents also reported noticing warmer

weather and more frequent periods of dryness and

drought in recent years.

Other

4.8%

Warmer temperatures

26.5%

More frequent dry conditions or drought

25.7%

Changes in wildlife or plants

16.9%

More frequent or severe storms

16.2%

Have you or your family experienced any of the following

due to changes in the climate and environment? Please

select all that apply.

aditional

o tr

ice

Rank the following environmental changes in terms of

how much they concern you (1 = most concerning; 5 =

least concerning). Select N/A if any of the changes are

not applicable.

Flooding

9.6%

20.22%

Loss of traditional plants and animals

or finan

ome

cia

Other

21.35%

10.11%

Los

Community Concerns

Increased extreme weather events (e.g., floods, droughts, or heat waves)

sed health issu

rea

Inc

s to housi

pact

47.19%

39.33%

Water availability or quality issues

Changes in seasonal patterns (e.g., planting or harvesting times)

Damage to culturally significant areas

20%

30%

40%

50%

tic

ting/fishin

hun

o Farms/Ra

ts t

10%

26.97%

17.98%

What Should the

Tribe Do to Take

Action?

How should the Tribe best prepare for the effects of climate

change on our lands? Please rank the following responses (1 =

most important; 5 = least important). Select N/A if any of the

responses are not applicable or appropriate.

Plan for potential impacts to farming and ranching

Based on survey responses,

community members voiced strong

Plan for potential impacts to hunting and fishing

preferences for proactive strategies to

prepare for climate change. Many

Plan for potential impacts to wetlands, streams, lakes, and rivers

emphasized the importance of

Plan for potential impacts to plants and wildlife (including buffalo)

improving tribal food sovereignty and

planning for impacts to farming and

Improve tribal food sovereignty

ranching, both seen as vital to long0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

term resilience and self-sufficiency.

Water security stood out as the single

How should the Tribe make sure our infrastructure (e.g.,

most important area for climate

homes, roads, facilities, utilities, etc.) can withstand

planning, with many respondents

climate driven weather extremes? Please rank the

noting its critical role in daily life, land

answers below in order of importance (1 = most

important; 5 = least important). Select N/A if any of the

management, and cultural traditions.

responses are not applicable or appropriate.

Ensuring that all homes have a reliable

and safe source of heat was also

Ensure all homes have a reliable source of heat

ranked as a top priority, especially as

temperature extremes become more

Ensure all homes have a reliable source of cooling

common. When asked how the Tribe

should strengthen infrastructure,

Relocate homes and buildings located in flood zones

respondents prioritized efforts to

Invest in the quality and upkeep of our roads, bridges, sewer systems, etc.

reinforce buildings, roads, and utility

systems to withstand extreme weather

Invest in energy efficient systems and buildings

events. Overall, the community

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

expressed a clear desire for strategies

that support both immediate needs

and long-term adaptation.

What are the most important things for the Tribe to focus on for climate

change planning? Please rank the following responses (1 = most

important; 7 = least important). Select N/A if any of the changes are not

applicable.

Culturally significant plants, animals (including buffalo), and places

Health of the community

Housing/Infrastructure (including residential and community solar and wind)

Water (water quality and water availability)

Agriculture

Energy sources (wind, solar, oil, and/or gas)

Education and youth involvement

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Section Two

Coloring sheets were distributed to Lower Brule school students as a creative way to engage younger community members in the Climate Change

Adaptation Planning process. Over 90 responses were received. The individual drawings were combined into a single composite image arranged

over the outline of a traditional tipi.

Reflections from

Our Elders

Plants are struggling, too. Elders talked about how hard it’s

become to find plums, chokecherries, turnips, and even sage—

plants that were once easy to gather, and part of how we lived

and healed. Last year, one elder said, there were no plums at

all.

As part of this plan, we sat down with elders from the Kul

Wicasa Oyate to listen. Not just to gather information but to

learn from those who’ve lived longest with the land, the

weather, the animals, and the changes that have come. These

conversations were followed by individual interviews with many

of the elders.

I had to change my buffalo recipe. No cherries. I used

cranberries instead. That’s not how we’re supposed to do it.

— Shirley Crane

What we heard confirmed what many of us already feel: the

land is changing. And not in small ways.

Weather Feels Different

Elders spoke of fewer blizzards, drier winters, and summers that

feel heavier, with more humidity and longer stretches of

extreme heat. Some said it now gets hotter than they ever

remember (sometimes over 110°F) and homes without air

conditioning make it hard to rest.

There used to be real winters. Deep snow, long cold

stretches. Now we hardly see snow at all.

— Wilma Wilson

They also remembered big storms from the past and worried

that younger generations wouldn’t know what to do if we had

another one. One person recalled the high snowdrifts of the

late 1990s and said, “We had to dig out and get by. Young folks

haven’t had to go through that.”

Animals & Plants are Changing

Many elders have noticed fewer birds—especially meadowlarks,

hawks, and woodpeckers. Prairie dogs are disappearing. At the

same time, they’ve seen more bats, raccoons, and ticks. Some

believe the tick problem has gotten worse due to the spread of

cedar trees.

Deer numbers have gone up and down, but one elder shared

that they’ve started to see more again in recent years. Grouse

are now showing up in high numbers, which surprised many.

Antelope, on the other hand, are almost completely gone from

the area.

There used to be a little herd of antelope we’d see every

year. I haven’t seen them in five years now.

— Red Langdeau

They also mentioned that red willow is shorter and lilac bushes

aren’t blooming like they used to, which affects what can be

used for natural medicines and tobacco.

Concerns for the Next Generation

Over and over, elders expressed concern for the health and

well-being of the younger generations. They talked about how

food has changed—less cooking, more microwavable meals,

more sugar. Some said children are being raised on cereal and

boxed foods, and that diabetes is rising as a result.

Nobody cooks anymore. Everything’s quick or in a box. We

used to cook from scratch, and we were healthier for it.

— Marlene Crowe

There were also worries about the local clinic not always being

open and young parents being hesitant about vaccines. Some

elders linked the rise in bronchitis and whooping cough to

those choices.

Drug and alcohol use came up, too. One Elder said they’ve

noticed higher death rates between ages 45 and 59—and they

worry those numbers are going up.

A Way of Life at Risk

Beyond health and weather, there was a deeper thread of

concern: the loss of traditional knowledge. Elders said fewer

young people are learning how to gather seasonal plants, how

to cook traditional foods, or how to live with the land the way

their grandparents taught them.

We’re not passing things down like we used to. And the

young ones aren’t asking.

— Marlene Crowe

They worry that in a crisis, whether a storm, a flood, or a fire,

many young people might not know how to respond, simply

because they haven’t had to before.

CLIMATE

ADAPTATION:

Strategies for a Changing

Future

These changes can worsen existing challenges, from access to

Climate Adaptation:

safe housing to the availability of traditional foods and the risk

extreme weather events. For the Tribe, protecting

Strategies for a Changing ofcommunity

vitality means ensuring our people have the

resources, support, and infrastructure to live well, physically,

Future

mentally, and spiritually.

The effects of climate change are already being felt across the

Reservation. We have documented the trends in the

Assessment: warmer temperatures, longer dry periods, more

intense storms, and growing uncertainty in seasonal patterns.

These changes don’t just show up in the data, but they are

visible on the landscape, in the river, in the health of plants and

animals, and in the stories and concerns shared by community

members and elders.

This section of the Plan is about what can be done in response.

Specifically, it focuses on adaptation, which are actions the Tribe

can take to reduce risks, respond to change, and strengthen

long-term resilience. Some of these actions are straightforward

and can be implemented relatively soon. Others are more

complex, requiring additional resources, partnerships, or time

to put in place. But all of them are aimed at the same goal:

helping the Tribe become more prepared, more self-sufficient,

and more secure in the face of climate-related challenges.

Adaptation does not solve climate change. It helps us live with

the realities we are already facing and prepare for what is

ahead. The strategies outlined here are intended to be practical,

flexible, and supportive of broader community priorities like

protecting water quality, improving public health, preserving

traditional knowledge, and maintaining vital infrastructure.

One of the challenges in putting together this section was that

climate change touches everything: food, housing, culture,

health, roads, wildlife, ceremony. So, to organize things in a way

that makes sense, we have grouped the adaptation strategies

under four broad categories focused on the resources that are

the most vulnerable. These reflect the major concern areas

from discussions with the community, our elders, tribal program

managers, and from the vulnerability analysis.

Caring for Our People: Health, Housing,

and Community Vitality

Climate change does not just affect the land and water, it affects

our homes, our health, and the well-being of our entire

community. Rising temperatures, stronger storms, and shifting

seasonal patterns are already putting stress on our food

systems, housing, and public health.

Table 5 (Adaptation actions for Caring for Our People: Health,

Housing, and Community Vitality) reflects our responsibility to

protect one another and future generations by preparing for a

changing climate. These actions include reinforcing buildings,

improving drainage, and elevating critical infrastructure to

reduce flood impacts; strengthening emergency response and

transportation plans; and expanding water storage and

sanitation systems to protect the health of our people during

droughts and floods. Together, these efforts are about more

than infrastructure, they reflect our values of care, connection,

and long-term resilience as a community rooted in place.

Guidance from the Ancestors: Knowledge,

Vision, and Ceremony

Climate adaptation must speak to the heart of who we are as a

people. Climate change threatens more than the environment,

it disrupts our cultural practices, the availability of traditional

foods and medicines, and our ability to gather and hold

ceremony in rhythm with the seasons. Elders speak of the

changes in plant cycles, animal behavior, and the land’s

response, and younger generations feel the weight of what

may be lost.

Table 6 (Adaptation actions for Guidance from the Ancestors:

Knowledge, Vision, and Ceremony) offers actions that

strengthen our collective resilience by supporting

intergenerational knowledge transfer and protecting the

relationships that tie us to land, plants, and animals. It includes

actions to preserve traditional plant knowledge and practice

sustainable harvesting to maintain balance and avoid

depletion. Restoring native grasslands, safeguarding riparian

habitats for relatives like the eagle, and caring for climateresilient prairies reflect our responsibility to steward the land

as our ancestors did. By grounding adaptation in cultural

values and traditional practices, we affirm that resilience is not

only about adapting to change, it is about honoring our ways

of life, sustaining what is sacred, and ensuring that future

generations can continue to live in good relationship with the

land.

Section Three

Protecting What Sustains Us: Water,

Planning, and Preparedness

Water was spoken of often in community conversations and

the community survey, reflecting its deep importance to the

Lower Brule Sioux way of life. Mni, our sacred water, touches

every part of our lives. It nourishes our bodies, our gardens,

our animals, and the plants we gather for food and medicine. It

flows through our ceremonies and connects us to our

ancestors. The Missouri River and the waters that surround us

are not just resources, they are living relatives, central to our

history, well-being, and future. But climate change is putting

stress on these systems. We’re seeing longer dry periods, more

intense rain events, and increasing pressure on both water

quality and quantity.

Table 7 (Adaptation actions for Protecting What Sustains Us:

Water, Planning, and Preparedness) reflects our responsibility to

care for water and land in ways that sustain life now and for

future generations. Actions include restoring native prairie and

wetland ecosystems, improving water quality through buffer

zones, and protecting key habitats for beaver and waterfowl—

relatives who help shape and care for water systems. By

expanding water storage, upgrading irrigation systems, and

creating water retention ponds, we prepare for times of drought

while ensuring year-round water availability. These efforts honor

our traditional knowledge and reflect a deep understanding:

that water is life, and its protection is central to the health of our

people, our food systems, and the lands we call home.

Table 5. Adaptation actions for Caring for Our People: Health, Housing, and Community Vitality.

Adaptation Actions Table

CARING FOR OUR PEOPLE: HEALTH, HOUSING, AND COMMUNITY VITALITY

Specific Resource(s)

Based on the

Assessment

Lower Brule Schools; Lower

Brule Health Center; Lower

Brule Commodity Food

Distribution Program; Golden

Buffalo Casino

Cedar

Adaptation Objectives

Specific Implementation Actions

Fire Prevention - Reduce wildfire risk around critical

infrastructure

Identify areas where overgrown vegetation is present near critical infrastructure; thin trees, clear

brush, and remove ladder fuels around those buildings; promote or require the use of fire-resistant

native plants and non-flammable ground cover near these buildings; develop and maintain fuel

breaks between wildlands and infrastructure corridors; and create regular maintenance schedules

for clearing brush and inspecting tree growth near critical infrastructure

Upgrade HVAC and Air Filtration Systems

Conduct building assessments for HVAC vulnerability and prioritize upgrades where heat, cold, or

smoke exposure is highest; replace outdated units with high-efficiency heat pumps or HVAC

systems designed for extreme temperature events; install advanced air filtration systems; equip

critical HVAC systems with solar and battery or generator backup systems; and improve

insultation, window sealing, and weather stripping to reduce energy load on HVAC systems and

better control indoor air quality

Storm-Resistant Infrastructure – Reinforce buildings

and flood-proof essential facilities

Identify buildings and essential facilities that are vulnerable to storms and flooding; reinforce roofs

to withstand high winds and inspect/retrofit foundations for erosion or water damage resistance;

replace vulnerable building materials with water-resistant and wind-rated alternatives; use floodproof doors, waterproof membranes, and backflow valves to protect facilities from flooding; and

raise generators and key systems above flood levels

Emergency Response Planning – Protect the

community by planning for extreme weather

Invest in backup power for refrigerators/freezers for use during extreme weather to safeguard the

commodity food distribution program; identify and/or build emergency shelters for weather

emergencies (e.g., flooding, extreme heat or cold, etc.); assess fire response and suggest ways to

improve responses to structure fires; stock emergency supplies; conduct community drills and

trainings; and use text alerts, social media, radio, and flyers to keep residents informed before and

during extreme weather events

Emergency Transportation Plans – Address road

vulnerabilities and ensure alternative routes

Map high-risk and flood prone roads; develop and maintain alternative evacuation routes; map

vulnerable populations and assets; ensure the Roads Department and Emergency Response Team

have shared access to route plans, equipment, and response timelines; install early warning and

signage systems during unsafe conditions; and create plans to maintain transportation access to

these critical facilities

Wildfire Prevention & Fuel Load Reduction – Reduce

overgrown cedar areas near homes and

infrastructure

Identify and prioritize areas where cedar is within 200 yards of homes and structures; plan for

removal priority; if wildfire occurs, use as opportunity to plant native grasses and remove

additional seedlings around wildfires to reduce seed sources

Adaptation Actions Table

CARING FOR OUR PEOPLE: HEALTH, HOUSING, AND COMMUNITY VITALITY

Specific Resource(s)

Based on the

Assessment

Adaptation Objectives

Lower Brule Rural Water

Project

Expand Water Security Measures – Improve drinking

water storage and sanitation systems

Upgrade and expand water storage infrastructure to increase capacity and reduce losses due to

leakage and evaporation; establish early warning systems and monitoring programs for water

quality and quantity; promote water conservation education; implement rainwater harvesting

systems at community and household levels; and protect and restore natural water sources to

maintain water quality and flow

Lower Brule Road Network;

Lower Brule Patient Transport

Program

Flood-Resilient Road Design – Improve drainage and

elevate roads in flood-prone areas

Conduct flood risk assessments to identify vulnerable road segments and prioritize areas for

improvement; retrofit roadways with enhanced drainage systems, such as larger culverts,

improved ditches, and stormwater management practices or consider the feasibility of elevating

the roadways; regularly maintain and clear drainage systems to ensure they function effectively

during heavy rainfall; and incorporate natural flood management techniques such as restoring

wetlands or creating buffer zones alongside roads

Lower Brule Road Network;

Lower Brule Patient Transport

Program; Lower Brule Health

Center; Lower Brule

Commodity Food Distribution

Program

Emergency Response Planning – Improve rural road

access and ensure alternative routes

Assess and map current road conditions and vulnerabilities to identify critical points at risk from

climate impacts like flooding, landslides, or wildfire; upgrade and maintain primary roads to

withstand extreme weather by improving drainage and stabilizing slopes; engage community

members in reporting road hazards and suggesting improvements; and identify and map alternate

routes for roadways prone to flooding, particularly for first responders

Wastewater Treatment:

Lagoon Ponds

Flood and Drought Resilient Design - Improve

drainage, elevate critical infrastructure, and reduce

potential evaporation

Upgrade drainage systems around lagoons to quickly divert floodwaters and prevent inundation or

damage to lagoon banks; elevate pumps, control panels, and electrical equipment on raised

platforms or stilts above anticipated flood levels; construct berms or levees around lagoons; use

floating covers, shade balls, or shade cloths on lagoon surfaces to reduce evaporation; implement

wind breaks around lagoons; and develop emergency action plans to respond quickly to extreme

flood or drought events

Specific Implementation Actions

Walking with the Land: Plants, Animals,

and Seasonal Balance

Many of the clearest signs of climate change are showing up on

the land. Plants are flowering earlier or not at all. Animals are

changing their migration patterns or disappearing from places

they once thrived. Some species are showing up in new

numbers or behaving differently. These ecological shifts can

affect gathering practices, hunting, and the overall balance

between our people and the natural systems we rely on.

Table 8 (Adaptation actions for Walking with the Land: Plants,

Animals, and Seasonal Balance) outlines strategies to enhance

habitat quality, control invasive species, protect culturally

significant plants, and promote healthy wildlife populations. It

emphasizes that land-based adaptation goes beyond simply

understanding ecological changes; it involves revitalizing the

community’s connection to the land, strengthening traditional

knowledge, and actively safeguarding the resources that sustain

us. Because the land offers more than just food and shelter, it is

central to our identity.

To be clear, this list of adaptation strategies is not exhaustive.

And it is not meant to be a rigid checklist. These lists of

strategies are a starting point or a set of priority options the

Tribe can draw from as conditions change and as new

opportunities or challenges arise. Some of these actions will

require outside funding or technical support. Others can be

done in-house with the right people and leadership in place.

What ties all of these adaptation strategies together is the goal

of building resilience. These strategies are about protecting

what matters, strengthening what works, and making smart

decisions for the long term. Climate adaptation is not separate

from other Tribal goals. It is part of how we make sure that the

future of the Kul Wicasa Oyate reflects our values, our priorities,

and our commitment to each other.

Section Three

Table 6. Adaptation actions for Guidance from the Ancestors: Knowledge, Vision, and Ceremony.

Adaptation Actions Table

GUIDANCE FROM THE ANCESTORS: KNOWLEDGE, VISION, AND CEREMONY

Specific Resource(s)

Based on the

Assessment

Adaptation Objectives

Specific Implementation Actions

Sustainable Harvesting – Manage this traditional

resource to maintain balance and avoid depletion

Create a guide on respectful and traditional harvesting methods authored by tribal elders and

knowledge keepers, incorporating cultural practices and ecological principles that ensure the longterm health of the traditional plant populations.; distribute among tribal community

Traditional Plant Knowledge - Understanding and

preserving native plants

Talk with elders about the traditional uses of sweetflag, where it was once found and where it can

be found today, identify traditional planting and harvesting practices; and identify and protect

critical habitat for the plant

Chokecherry

Protect Traditional Fruit Producing Plants

Start a community-led seed sharing program; plant wildflowers near fruit plants to attract native

bees and butterflies; avoid using chemical pesticides near fruiting plants; monitor known

chokecherry populations regularly; control invasive plants and pests that compete with or damage

the plant; and develop community education programs to raise awareness about the plant’s

cultural and ecological importance and ways to protect it

Eagle

Riparian Habitat Protection – Conserve and restore

habitat to support nesting eagles

Consult with tribal elders to identify key areas where nesting eagles are found; protect and restore

native tree species along riparian zones to maintain and enhance canopy cover crucial for eagle

nesting and shade; develop and implement strategies to limit development and human activity

near eagle nesting sites; monitor the health of these habitats regularly to ensure they remain

conducive to eagle nesting; and prevent livestock from overgrazing surrounding areas

Badger, Buffalo, Deer,

Antelope, Elk

Habitat Restoration – Preserve native grasslands and

increase forage and for climate-resilient prairies

Consult with tribal elders to identify and protect key areas of native grasslands that are crucial for

elk, deer, and antelope foraging; consider land management practices that promote the growth of

native grasses and other forage plants; and work with agricultural producers to minimize the

impact of agricultural activities on these habitats

Sweetflag

Table 7. Adaptation actions for Protecting What Sustains Us: Water, Planning, and Preparedness.

Adaptation Actions Table

PROTECTING WHAT SUSTAINS US: WATER, PLANNING, AND PREPAREDNESS

Specific Resource(s)

Based on the

Assessment

Sweetflag, Buffalo, Sharptailed Grouse, Weasel

Walleye, Catfish

Adaptation Objectives

Specific Implementation Actions

Native Prairie & Water Conservation – Restore and

protect native prairie and wetland ecosystems

Conduct native prairie and wetland restoration to enhance habitat quality for sweetflag and

buffalo, while providing essential cover and foraging areas for sharp-tailed grouse and weasel;

control invasive species that threaten the diversity and health of these ecosystems; restore natural

hydrology by repairing or removing drainage systems that disrupt wetland water levels, supporting

the growth of wetland plants like sweetflag and maintaining water sources vital to wildlife;

implement sustainable grazing and land-use practices to prevent overuse and soil degradation,

ensuring resilient grasslands and wetlands that sustain buffalo populations and the diverse

wildlife, including sharp-tailed grouse and weasels, that depend on them

Water Quality Management – Reduce nutrient

pollution through buffer zones

Identify areas where buffer zones are needed to reduce nutrient pollution that negatively impacts

catfish and walleye habitats; develop guidelines for buffer zone implementation and maintenance;

work with landowners and agricultural producers to establish buffer zones; develop and finalize

resolution for buffer zones inclusion into agricultural leases; implement buffer zones and improved

land-use practices to reduce nutrient pollution in water bodies; and restore riparian wetlands and

floodplains to act as natural filters and nutrient sinks

Table 7. Adaptation actions for Protecting What Sustains Us: Water, Planning, and Preparedness.

Adaptation Actions Table

PROTECTING WHAT SUSTAINS US: WATER, PLANNING, AND PREPAREDNESS

Specific Resource(s)

Based on the

Assessment

Deer, Antelope, Elk

Adaptation Objectives

Specific Implementation Actions

Water Source Protection – Develop water retention

ponds and artificial water sources, and ensure yearround water availability

Construct water retention ponds, cisterns, and reservoirs to capture and store rainwater and

seasonal runoff for use during dry periods; use traditional knowledge and local expertise to identify

reliable and culturally appropriate locations for artificial water sources; implement water

conservation practices across community, agricultural, and livestock uses to stretch stored water

through dry seasons; restore and protect natural recharge areas, such as wetlands and floodplains

to enhance groundwater replenishment; monitor water levels regularly, and educate the

community about the importance of water conservation for these habitats

Wetland Conservation & Restoration – Protect and

expand wetland habitats

Identify and map existing wetlands and areas suitable for restoration using TEK, local input, and

ecological assessments; protect existing wetlands through the use of buffers and improved landuse practices; restore degraded wetlands by reintroducing native vegetation, improving hydrology,

and removing drainage structures; control invasive species; and support community education and

stewardship programs

Waterfowl Habitat Protection – Identify, preserve,

and monitor important beaver and waterfowl areas

Consult with tribal elders to identify key areas where waterfowl and beaver are and/or were

plentiful; develop and implement strategies to protect these areas from development; monitor the

health of these habitats regularly to ensure they remain healthy and available for waterfowl and

beaver

More Efficient Irrigation – Upgrade irrigation systems

Assess the current irrigation systems and identify areas for improvement or replacement; research

and identify which modern, efficient irrigation techniques would be best to implement (e.g., drip

irrigation, sprinkler systems, and sub-surface irrigation, etc.); install soil moisture sensors and

weather-based irrigation scheduling tools to reduce unnecessary watering and optimize timing;

conduct regular maintenance and inspections of irrigation infrastructure; and line or pipe open

ditches and canals

Storm-Resilient Farming – Establish windbreaks,

contour farming, and buffer strips to prevent

erosion

Collaborate with NRCS (if appropriate) to identify areas on the tribal farm where windbreaks,

contour farming, and/or buffer strips could help prevent erosion; develop and implement a plan for

planting and maintaining windbreaks, contour farming, and/or buffer strips; identify areas on the

tribal farm susceptible to flooding and consider limiting planting there to more water-hardy crops

Water Conservation Measures – Implement policies

to encourage water conservation

Conduct a comprehensive assessment of current water use across the community to identify

patterns of overuse and opportunities for conservation; develop a set of water conservation

policies informed by the assessment findings and present them to the Tribal Council for

consideration and adoption; integrate TEK into conservation strategies to align with local cultural

values and practices; and collaborate with community members to co-create conservation policies

that reflect both ecological needs and community priorities;

Water Storage – Expand and optimize water storage

capacity to prepare for drought conditions

Construct and expand water storage infrastructure, such as retention ponds, cisterns, and

reservoirs to capture seasonal runoff; restore natural water storage areas like wetlands,

floodplains, and riparian zones to increase groundwater recharge and surface water retention; and

upgrade existing storage systems to reduce evaporation losses (e.g., using covers, shade structures,

or lining materials)

Beaver, Waterfowl

Lower Brule Farm & Ranch

Lower Brule Rural Water

Project

Community leaders at Government Square, c. 1920.

Elders gathered outside the Tribal Office. Among those gathered are the “Twelve Leaders,” who guided Lower Brule governance before the Indian

Reorganization Act and the later Tribal Council era. Source: Sheldon Fletcher

Section Three

Table 8. Adaptation actions for Walking with the Land: Plants, Animals, and Seasonal Balance.

Adaptation Actions Table

WALKING WITH THE LAND: PLANTS, ANIMALS, AND SEASONAL BALANCE

Specific Resource(s)

Based on the

Assessment

Adaptation Objectives

Controlled Burns & Mechanical Removal – Reduce

cedar spread and prevent ecosystem imbalance

Conduct annual monitoring and early seedling removal of cedar to prevent further encroachment

that threatens native grassland habitat critical for sharp-tailed grouse and weasel populations;

identify and prioritize areas with high cedar infestation, focusing especially on seed-producing

trees aged 6 years and older; develop and implement targeted controlled burn plans designed to

reduce cedar density while restoring open grassland structure essential for sharp-tailed grouse

lekking grounds and providing cover and hunting opportunities for weasels; combine mechanical

removal with controlled burns to maximize cedar reduction and promote native vegetation

recovery; incorporate TEK by integrating cultural fire practices and ecological insights into the

timing and methods of burns

Native Grassland Restoration – Replant native

grasses in areas impacted by cedar encroachment

Assess and prioritize restoration sites with cedar impact in mind by targeting areas where cedar

encroachment has displaced native grasslands, recognizing that dense cedar stands reduce habitat

quality for sharp-tailed grouse and weasels, which rely on open grasslands and edge habitats;

collect and propagate native grass seeds that support sharp-tailed grouse and weasel habitat; and

engage community members in restoration and wildlife monitoring

Deer, Antelope, Elk, Sweetflag

Controlled Burns & Invasive Species Removal Reduce the spread of invasive species

Create invasive species management plans that combine controlled burns and mechanical removal

while protecting and promoting native vegetation that provides food and cover for deer, antelope,

and elk, and supports sweetflag growth in wetlands; collaborate with the Tribal Council to establish

an invasive species control requirement within agricultural lease agreements on tribal lands; and

regularly map invasive species spread and monitor habitat conditions, prioritizing areas critical for

deer, antelope, elk, and sweetflag

Walleye, Catfish

Invasive Species Control – Reduce the spread of

invasive fish that compete with walleye and catfish

Conduct regular monitoring of invasive fish species and collaborate with South Dakota Game, Fish,

and Parks Department for assistance (if appropriate); identify and target invasive fish species for

removal using targeted removal techniques such as netting, electrofishing, or introducing native

predators; restore and protect native fish habitats; engage local community members about the

risks of invasive fish and promote practices that prevent their spread; and study how climate

change affects invasive fish behavior and habitat to adapt control strategies accordingly

Prey Population Monitoring – Ensure stable fish,

waterfowl, and small mammal populations

Collaborate with South Dakota Game, Fish, and Parks Department for assistance (if appropriate) to

conduct regular assessments of prey populations in eagle habitats; implement conservation

measures to maintain healthy populations of fish, waterfowl, and small mammals; protect and

restore critical habitats that provide breeding, feeding, and sheltering areas for prey species;

prevent and reduce invasive species that compete with or prey upon native fish, waterfowl, and

small mammals; encourage grazing, agriculture, and development practices that minimize habitat

degradation and support prey species diversity

Improve Eagle Habitat - Create new habitat for

nesting eagles

Identify key areas that could benefit from creation of nesting platforms for bald eagles and install

artificial nesting platforms; protect existing nesting habitat; and plant and promote the growth of

nesting trees

Prairie Dog Conservation Efforts - Maintain blackfooted ferret populations

Maintain existing efforts for the black-footed ferret reintroduction; consult with tribal elders and

Tribal Council to determine if continuing the black footed ferret reintroduction program is desired

Protect Prairie Dogs from the Plague - Keep prairiedog populations healthy

Continue to acquire funding to maintain a vaccination program to protect prairie dogs from plague

outbreaks; implement regular monitoring and early detection; promote habitat management to

reduce disease risk by controlling invasive species and ensure diverse vegetation which supports

prairie dog resilience; control flea populations

Drought-Resilient Crops – Shift to drought-tolerant

varieties

Research and identify drought-tolerant crop varieties suitable for the farm; collaborate with

agricultural experts to develop a plan for transitioning to these varieties; and consider conducting

field trials to test the performance of those crop varieties

Soil Health Restoration – Implement no-till farming,

cover cropping, and composting to prevent nutrient

loss

Work with the Lower Brule Farm & Ranch staff to identify the feasibility of implementing no-till

farming, cover cropping, and/or compositing on Lower Brule farm and ranch lands; work with the

Tribal Council to pass a resolution requiring the implementation of soil health restoration

initiatives, if applicable

Emergency Plans - Address livestock vulnerability to

extreme weather

Develop an emergency livestock plan to implement in the case of wildfire, flooding, drought, etc.;

the plan should include evacuation routes, shelter locations, feed and water stockpiling, and health

care protocols for extreme weather events; and construct or reinforce shelters that protect

livestock from heat, cold, wind, and flooding

Cedar, Sharp-tailed Grouse,

Weasel

Eagle

Black-footed ferret and Prairie

Dog

Lower Brule Farm & Ranch

Specific Implementation Actions

IMPLEMENTATION

FRAMEWORK

From Plan to Action

Section Four

Creating a

Framework for

Implementation

This section provides a framework for building and managing

an Implementation Plan. The goal is simple. We want to protect

what sustains us, reduce risk where it is highest, and build

capacity where we need it most.

The Implementation Framework is a repeatable way to move

from goal to strategy to action while keeping our values at the

center. The purpose is to make decisions clear, link every action

to the risks we identified, and set up a process that can

continue year after year regardless of staff changes. The

Framework consists of four steps: 1. Governance and Decision

Structure, 2. Phased Timeline and Milestones, 3. Funding and

Partnerships, and 4. Monitoring and Evaluation.

The framework starts with how decisions are made. The Tribe

designates a small group with representation from water, land

and wildlife, health and community, and infrastructure and

services. Elders, youth, and culture programs have a regular

voice in the work. The group meets to review progress, resolve

trade-offs, and confirm what comes next. The Council is

updated periodically.

Project ideas come from the Assessment. Species, places, and

systems that scored Very High or High risk move to the top of

the candidate list. Each candidate action is captured on a short

proposal that states the hazard it addresses, the vulnerability it

reduces, and the specific benefit to the community. This

approach keeps proposals focused and makes it easy to see

why each action is important.

Ranking: Items that are Very High or High risk are the first for

consideration for projects. Items that are ready to start within

the next year move up the list of projects to start first. Actions

that bring clear benefits such as improved health, protection of

cultural practice, local jobs, or lower operating costs are

favored. The Tribe can publish the scores, so the order is clear

to the Tribal Council and community.

The center line represents the expected path, while the upper

and lower bounds show a reasonable range based on the

different climate futures. When an indicator approaches the

edge of this range, we issue a watch or take other

precautionary steps. If it moves beyond the range for a full

season, a warning is issued. Should it remain outside the range

for two seasons—or cross a critical threshold—we initiate

action. Each trigger connects to a concise response plan

outlining who does what within the next 72 hours, the next 30

days, and the following year, depending on the nature of the

issue. Examples include managing high heat or poor air quality

at schools, adjusting reservoir operations near water intakes,

maintaining safe lagoon pond levels before major storms,

monitoring summer soil moisture on key range units, and

tracking the spread of invasive plants.

Many of these responses build on existing plans and programs,

such as the Lower Brule Drought Adaptation Plan [13]. This

monitoring process complements those efforts and helps link

them together. On the next page, the Kul Wicasa Wopasi

program illustrates how youth learning, local food systems, and

small business development can all contribute to a more

resilient community. Delivery is staged to build momentum.

Early work focuses on setup and fast wins that cut near term

risk and build confidence. The next stage moves into design

and first builds for larger needs. The following stage scales what

works and sets a budget for operations and maintenance so

gains last. Throughout, the Tribe invests in skills such as grant

writing, purchasing, project oversight, emergency exercises, and

data management. Tools for tracking projects and storing data

are simple and owned by the Tribe.

A short quarterly scorecard tracks schedules, budgets, and

indicator status. An annual summary reports what was

completed, what changed in the indicators, and what will

change next. Every three years the Tribe revisits the risk tables,

updates the tracking bands with new data, and refreshes

priorities. This steady cycle keeps the work practical,

accountable, and aligned with community guidance.

Funding is planned early. For each action the Tribe identifies

one primary funding pathway and if feasible a backup.

Common language for applications, letters of support, cost

estimates, and maps are stored in one place.

Monitoring turns information into action. For a focused set of

indicators tied to our main climate hazards, we project an

expected range for the next 25 years using observed trends

and the three climate futures described in this report.

Overnight rain of 8-9 inches overtopped and washed out the

road; a power pole stands in open water showing the depth.

Source: Lower Brule Environmental Protection Office.

Community Spotlight

Kul Wicasa Wopasi Youth

Internships for Community

Resilience

The internship rests on clear expectations that reflect

community values:

Commitment to learning: They explore science and

technology in ways that connect to our history, culture, and

land. Even when they are still finding their path, they are

present, prepared, and open to learning.

Community engagement: Interns work on projects that serve

the Tribe. They help with gardens, habitat work, food events,

inventories of important plants, and youth activities.

Academic prioritization: Interns must be enrolled in school

and are encouraged to keep up with classes. Tutoring is

available through Wopasi and counts toward internship time,

because student success strengthens the well being of the

whole community.

Kul Wicasa Wopasi helps our youth learn, earn, and serve in

ways that strengthen the whole community. The program

teaches real skills in science, technology, engineering, and math

while keeping learning rooted in culture, language, and place.

Students restore native plants, tend gardens, test water, map

local places, help with community events, and share what they

learn with families and Elders. Markets organized by Wopasi

every other Friday give first time vendors a place to sell

produce, crafts, and baked goods, which keeps dollars local and

build confidence.

At the heart of Wopasi is the Youth Internship Program. These

internships are mission driven opportunities for young people

who want to grow as leaders. Interns are selected because they

are ready to take responsibility, work with mentors, and

contribute to projects that matter for the Oyate. Internships are

a guided practice that builds knowledge, character, and pride in

serving our people.

Conduct and communication: Interns practice honest,

respectful, and responsible behavior. They learn to

communicate with mentors, teammates, and community

members, and to represent the program with humility and

care.

What makes this internship different is its grounding in culture

and service. It is not a traditional job. It is a supported space to

grow into leadership. Youth learn practical skills such as field

safety, record keeping, customer service, and public speaking.

They also learn about respect for plants and animals, the

importance of helping others, and the responsibility to care for

their community. That mix of skills and values builds resilience

that lasts far beyond a single season.

By investing in Wopasi internships, the Tribe is investing in its

future leaders. Our interns learn how to solve problems, work

with others, and create local solutions. They help strengthen

food systems, community health, and the local economy while

keeping cultural knowledge at the center. This is resilience in

action, led by youth who are learning to serve with fairness,

integrity, and pride.

Wopasi community garden created and maintained by the students. Source: Sheldon Fletcher

Section Four

Implementation

Framework

Governance & Decision Structure

Lead: LBST Climate Change Advisory Committee

Implementing Programs: Water, Land and Wildlife, Health

and Community, Infrastructure and Services

Advisory inputs: Elders, cultural leaders, youth council,

farm/ranch interests, School District, Health Center, Rural Water,

Emergency Management

Frequency:

Monthly Implementation Team discussions as necessary

Quarterly Steering review with Tribal Council

Annual community report and listening session

How we make decisions:

We use the Risk Priority Score that combines vulnerability

and hazard pressure.

We also use readiness (do we have authority, partners, and

funds) and co-benefits (health, culture, jobs) to rank projects

within each concern area.

Phased Timeline & Milestones

Phase 1: Stand-up and quick wins

Confirm the highest priority actions in each concern area

using the risk results and basic readiness. Establish a small

coordination group and set a regular meeting schedule.

Approve simple standards for how projects are proposed,

scored, and reported. Stand up the monitoring effort by

selecting a short list of indicators and agreeing on data

sources, methods, and an expectation corridor for each.

Compile baselines for those indicators. Build a funding

calendar and identify at least one primary and one backup

funding path for the first wave of actions.

Milestones: governance in place, project list agreed,

monitoring plan approved, baselines compiled, and first

funding applications submitted.

Phase 2: Design and early delivery

Develop clear two-page briefs for top-ranked actions that

state purpose, scope, partners, cost, permits, schedule, and

how success will be measured. Begin design and permitting

for a first set of actions across water, land and wildlife,

health and community, and infrastructure and services.

Launch a few early actions that have low barriers and visible

benefits to build momentum. Begin regular reporting on

indicators and document how triggers will lead to

operational steps when thresholds are crossed.

Milestones: first designs underway, early actions delivered,

indicator reporting on a steady frequency, playbooks

43 drafted for heat, flood, fire, and power loss.

Phase 3: Build and expand

Move from design to construction or implementation for

actions that are ready. Scale up what is working and pause

or redesign what is not meeting targets. Link capital

planning and annual budgets to the ranked risk list and to

trends in the indicators. Set operations and maintenance

expectations for every completed action so benefits are

sustained. Continue training in grant writing, procurement,

data management, and emergency exercises.

Milestones: construction underway on priority items,

operations and maintenance commitments documented,

training plan active.

Funding & Partnerships

Federal and state programs

BIA Tribal Community Resilience, FEMA BRIC and Hazard

Mitigation Grants, Reclamation WaterSMART, USDA

NRCS EQIP and CSP, EPA 319 and Drinking Water SRF,

DOE grid resilience and weatherization, USFS State and

Private Forestry, NOAA climate and habitat programs.

Regional and NGO partners

Great Plains Tribal Water Alliance, universities and

climate centers, Nature Conservancy and similar habitat

groups, local conservation districts, philanthropic

climate and health funds.

Private sector

Power and telecom companies for critical facility

hardening, hospital and clinic partners for cooling and

clean air rooms, agricultural suppliers for drought smart

practices.

Monitoring & Evaluation

The goal of monitoring and evaluation is to track slow moving

changes and step change events, link them to thresholds, and

then link thresholds to actions.

Indicators and sources:

Heat: annual hot days and hot nights, heat index days.

Source: local stations plus reanalysis data to establish

baseline data.

Drought and dryness: SPEI-12 and seasonal soil moisture

from the three climate futures and observed data.

Water: winter and spring runoff proxies, reservoir or river

stage near intakes, groundwater levels where available.

Ecosystems: seasonal soil moisture on rangelands, invasive

cedar spread, condition plots for priority plants, lek counts

for grouse, sentinel wildlife observations.

Public health and housing: heat illness visits, cooling

support calls, home HVAC outages, smoke days in school

closures.

Infrastructure: lagoon freeboard and berm condition,

culvert overtopping logs, road washouts, boil water

advisories.

Expected Ranges:

For each indicator, define an expected range for 2025 to 2050

that blends past observations with the Climate Future that

produces the highest risk for that indicator. The center line

follows the recent observed seasonal cycle and trend, then

extends forward using the projected trend from the risk-driving

future; the corridor width reflects the larger of the historical

year-to-year spread and the model spread around that center

line, and it is updated each year as new data arrive. For

example, using the one-hour rainfall intensity indicator,

compute a three-year rolling average of the heaviest one-hour

rain observed across the Reservation from gauges and radar.

Select the future that shows the strongest increase in short,

intense downpours to set the forward trend for that indicator,

and size the expected range to cover both the historical

variability and the model range. If the observed one-hour

intensity begins to track the upper edge of that corridor, it is a

signal that flash flood pressure is mounting. If it persists

outside the range, it indicates that storm intensity is rising

faster than expected and that flood preparedness actions

should be escalated.

Triggers and Plans (examples)

Heat: Warning if hot nights exceed the range in June and

July. Action: open cooling rooms, extend clinic hours,

distribute box fans and air cleaners, check on elders, shift

outdoor work schedules.

Drought: Warning if SPEI-12 drops below corridor for two

seasons. Action: conserve water, prioritize stock water

hauling zones, delay burns, expand shelterbelt watering,

pre-stage hay and forage support.

Flood: Create extreme hourly rainfall index (May-Sep) that

tracks three-year running average of the biggest one-hour

rain events each year on the Reservation. Action: Replace or

upsize the top 10 to 20 problem crossings inside three

years, starting with sites that have repeated overtopping,

school bus routes, and health access routes.

Wildfire: Warning if extreme fire danger days exceed the

corridor for a month. Action: restrict burns, surge fuels

reduction crews near facilities, pre deploy portable water

tanks.

Evaluation

Quarterly: implementation scorecard with completed tasks,

budget burn, and trigger responses.

Annual: effectiveness review that checks whether actions

moved the needle on the indicator, and whether other

benefits were realized.

Every 3 years: external review and model refresh, with

corridor updates if the science or data improve.

Examples of priority actions linked to risk and monitoring

Water Security and Climate Resilience

Rural water intake and storage hardening

Link to indicators: winter and spring runoff index,

river stage, summer demand.

2025 design, 2026 construction.

Stormwater and road drainage upgrades at known

choke points

Link: culvert overtops and washouts, peak rainfall

intensity.

Lagoon berm and freeboard program

Link: berm condition, freeboard monthly, winter

wind and storm logs.

Adapting Land and Wildlife

Cedar control and rangeland recovery in two pilot

watersheds

Link: cedar spread plots, soil moisture, fire danger

days.

Riparian plantings for chokecherry and buffaloberry

with youth crews

Link: plant condition plots, pollinator presence, soil

moisture.

Sharp tailed grouse habitat and lek monitoring with

rotational grazing pilots

Link: lek counts, forb richness, brood cover metrics.

Preserving Culture and Protecting Community

Cooling and clean air rooms in the Community Center

and Schools

Link: heat index days, smoke days, clinic visits.

Seasonal foods and medicines activities

Link: plant condition and harvest logs, youth

participation.

Emergency transport reliability

Link: heat days, road interruptions, on-time medical

trips.

Reporting & Adjustments

Organize delivery in three waves:

Stand up and quick wins in the first year to build

momentum and reduce immediate risk.

Design and first builds in years two and three where larger

investments begin.

Scale and sustain in years four and five where successful

approaches expand and operations and maintenance

budgets are set.

Use a short quarterly or annual status update to track

schedule, budget, and indicator status. Publish an annual

summary that lists what was completed, what shifted in the

indicators, and what changed in the rankings.

References & Data

[1]. ERA5 monthly 2 m temperature (anomalies, maps)

-Hersbach, H., et al. (2020). The ERA5 global reanalysis. QJRMS,

146, 1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

Dataset used: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). 2017–

present. ERA5 Monthly Averaged Data on Single Levels, 1940–

present. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7 (accessed July

22, 2025).

[2]. U.S. Climate Divisions temperature and precipitation

(warming stripes, long-term trends)

-Vose, R. S., et al. (2014). Improved historical temperature and

precipitation time series for U.S. climate divisions. JAMC, 53, 1232–

1251. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0248.1

Dataset used: NOAA NCEI. nClimDiv: South Dakota Climate

Division 6.https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/climdiv/

(accessed July 23, 2025).

[3]. Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., Prein, A. F., Westra, S., Allan, R. P.,

Ban, N., Barbero, R., Berg, P., Blenkinsop, S., Do, H. X., Guerreiro,

S. B., Haerter, J. O., Kendon, E. J., Lewis, E., Li, X.-F., Mishra, V.,

Panthou, G., Payne, A. E., Peleg, N., Seneviratne, S. I., et al.

(2021). Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall

extremes. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2(2), 107–122.

doi:10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6.

[4]. SPI drought trends

-Abatzoglou, J. T. (2013). Development of gridded surface

meteorological data for the conterminous United States.

International Journal of Climatology, 33(1), 121–131.

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413

-McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of

drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of

the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology (pp. 179–184).

Anaheim, CA: American Meteorological Society.

Dataset used: Northwest Climate Toolbox. Observed pentad

SPEI (1979–present) and modeled annual SPEI (1950–2099;

CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES365) (accessed Sept 10,

2025).

[5]. Hourly precipitation (1-hour intensity) – Pierre Regional

Airport

NOAA NCEI Integrated Surface Database.

Dataset used: NOAA NCEI. ISD/LCD station KPIR hourly

precipitation. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov (accessed July 10,

2025).

[6]. Changes in annual precipitation and temperature from

downscaled CMIP5 projections

Abatzoglou, J. T., & Brown, T. J. (2012). A comparison of statistical

downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications. International

Journal of Climatology, 32, 772–780. (MACA method).

Abatzoglou, J. T. (2013). Development of gridded surface

meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling.

International Journal of Climatology, 33, 121–131. (METDATA

forcing).

Data used: Climate Toolbox. Downscaled CMIP5 projections

(MACAv2-METDATA), accessed [October 30, 2024].

[7]. Downscaled daily precipitation (Rx5day extremes)

-Abatzoglou, J. T., & Brown, T. J. (2012). A comparison of statistical

downscaling methods for daily climate. IJOC, 32, 772–780.

https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2312

-Zhang, X., et al. (2011). Indices for monitoring changes in

extremes. WIREs Climate Change, 2, 851–870.

https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147

Dataset used: Northwest Climate Toolbox. MACA v2 daily

precipitation for Lower Brule (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5,

HadGEM2-ES). https://climatetoolbox.org (accessed Sept 09,

2025).

[8]. SPEI drought intensity

Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., & López-Moreno, J. I.

(2010). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J.

Climate, 23, 1696–1718.

https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1

Dataset used: Northwest Climate Toolbox. Observed pentad

SPEI (1979–present) and modeled annual SPEI (1950–2099;

CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES365) (accessed Sept 10,

2025).

[9]. Black Elk, L. S., & Flying By, W. D., Sr. (1998). Culturally

Important Plants of the Lakota. Sitting Bull College.

[10]. WoLakota Project. Lakota Pronunciation Glossary. (n.d.),

(accessed Sept 22, 2025), from WoLakota Project:

https://www.wolakotaproject.org/lakota-pronunciation-glossary/

[11]. University of South Dakota, South Dakota Geographic

Source (SDGS). Black‑Footed Ferret. (n.d.). PDF document

(accessed Sept 22, 2025), from

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[12]. English‑Lakota Dictionary. (n.d.) (accessed Sept 22, 2025),

from Lakota‑Indians Website: https://lakotaindians.narod.ru/English_Lakota_Di

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