NATURAL RESOURCES DEPARTMENT

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HOH INDIAN TRIBE

NATURAL RESOURCES DEPARTMENT

CLIMATE

CHANGE

VULNERABILITY

ASSESSMENT

DOCUMENTING THE PAST AND PREPARING FOR THE

FUTURE

2025

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments .........................................................................................................2

Introduction ...................................................................................................................3

Hoh Indian Tribe Background .....................................................................................5

Changing Climate Conditions in the Hoh Usual & Accustomed Area ..................7

Could 2015 provide clues about the future? .....................................................11

Well-being and Climate Change ................................................................................12

Potential actions to strengthen well-being ......................................................14

In-Depth: Energy resiliency on the Hoh Indian Reservation .........................15

Hoh Ecosystems and Climate Change .....................................................................17

Marine: Ocean and Tidal ........................................................................................18

Forests .......................................................................................................................21

Wetlands ...................................................................................................................25

River and Riparian ...................................................................................................27

Concerns .......................................................................................................................31

Desires and Hopes ......................................................................................................32

Works Cited ..................................................................................................................34

Appendices

Appendix 1: Overview of Representative Concentration Pathways ............50

Appendix 2: Changing Climate Conditions in the Hoh U&A, expanded .......51

Appendix 3: Hoh Well-being and Climate Change, expanded........................66

Appendix 4: Hoh Ecosystems and Climate Change, expanded .....................67

Appendix 5: Assessment Methodology ..............................................................68

Appendix 6: CCVI Scores for Highlighted Species ...........................................70

Appendix 7: Interview Questions and Consent Form ......................................89

Acknowledgments

An entire community supported this report. Thank you to Chief Howeeshata (David

Hudson), Chief Daki Fisher, Vivian Lee, Brenda Lee, Walter Ward, Boe Horejsi, Wah cK - uBB (Rick Horejsi Sr.), Marie Riebe, Richard Sheriff, Joe Hudson, Jose Gomez,

Ruby Sheriff, and other Hoh Tribal members who shared their time and knowledge

with me. This report exists because of your expertise. Thank you to Kelly Rosales

(Tribal Historic Preservation Officer) for making the interviews possible and for all of

your support. Thank you to Hoh Tribal Staff, including Julie Ann Koehlinger

(previous Natural Resources Director), Kim Bray (Natural Resources Director), Brian

Hoffman (Fisheries Management Biologist), and Wren Varga (Timber, Fish, and

Wildlife Biologist) for your review. Thank you to the Hoh Tribal Business Committee

for your leadership.

Many others were essential in the formation, from offering guidance to resources

throughout the process. Thank you to Bernard Afterbuffalo Jr. and Maria Lopez

(Hoh Tribe), Robert Knapp (Jamestown S’Kallam), Eliza Ghitis (NWIFC), and Sanpisa

Sritrairat, Chandler Countryman, and Melissa Poe (WA Sea Grant) for conversations

that helped this project take shape. Thank you to Jenny Waddell and Katie Wrubel

(Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary), Meade Krosby (UW Climate Impacts

Group), Karen Affeld and Lauren Lesser (North Olympic Development Council), Bill

Baccus and Mike Larrabee (National Park Service), Ian Miller (WA Sea Grant), John

Proefrock (UW School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences), Mara Zimmerman (Coast

Salmon Partnership and Foundation), and Bryce Blumenthal (WDFW) for providing

resources and taking the time to discuss the results.

I’d also like to thank the Tribes who have written climate assessments and shared

portions publicly. These were essential examples. The reports I relied on are

highlighted in the Works Cited section. The PNW Tribal Climate Change Network, the

Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals, Affiliated Tribes of Northwest

Indians, and the Tribal Resilience Action Database were also rich resources. Finally,

I’d like to thank Serina Fast Horse with the NW Environmental Justice Center for the

snapshot graphic design, WA Sea Grant for facilitating the Hershman Fellowship, and

to WA’s Climate Commitment Act for providing funding.

Disclaimer

Much of this assessment is based on interviews. Interviewees shared their

experiences, knowing they would be quoted for this assessment. However, the

quotes should not be removed from this document and used by any entities outside

of the Hoh Tribe unless explicit permission is granted by the interviewees.

Additionally, interviewees may remove their quotes and knowledge at any time as

they see fit.

INTRODUCTION

The Hoh people were created along the Hoh River by

K’wati, the shape-shifting Changer. Since that time,

the Hoh Indian Tribe’s home and territory has been

the western side of the Olympic Peninsula in the

temperate rainforest near glacially-fed rivers and the

roaring Pacific Ocean. The Hoh Tribe is spiritually and

culturally connected with this land and has stewarded

their rich resources for generations.

Climate change is a pressing threat to the Hoh way of

life. It is changing environmental conditions and

impacting animals and plants that Tribal members

depend on for food, livelihoods, cultural traditions,

and spiritual practices. Treaty rights, like fishing,

hunting, and gathering, are central to the Tribe’s

sovereignty and revolve around natural resources.

Infrastructure, cultural resources, and human health

are at risk from winter floods, summer low flows,

worsening air quality, and heat waves, among other

concerns. Climate change is an environmental justice

issue; the Hoh Tribe has contributed little to this

global problem and is now disproportionately

affected by the impacts.

“Hoh River mouth” by Sam Beebe is licensed under CC

BY 2.0

“Our vision is to ensure our future

as a strong, sovereign nation by

continuing to preserve and instill

our inherent cultural and spiritual

traditions and values.”

Hoh Indian Tribe, 2022 - 2024

Strategic Plan

While there have been broad assessments that

included portions of the Hoh usual and accustomed

area (U&A) or focused on combined coastal Treaty

Tribe concerns, there has not yet been a report

produced solely by the Hoh Tribe. Seeing this gap, this

is the Tribe’s first climate change assessment,

focused on their specific experiences, concerns, and

needs. The goal of this document is to share the

changes Tribal members are experiencing, the future

changes the Tribe can expect, and the impacts on

ecosystems, species, and well-being. It was created

through interviews with Tribal members and a

synthesis of scientific literature and reports. This

assessment and the future work it can support are a

commitment to facing climate challenges, creating a

positive future for current and future generations of

Hoh Tribal members, and supporting Hoh Tribal

sovereignty.

This assessment has five main sections:

1: Background: A brief history of the Hoh Tribe’s connections to natural resources.

2: Changing Climate Conditions: A summary of changing climate conditions and future climate

projections. While we cannot predict exactly what the future will look like, knowing the range of

expected changes is essential to understanding risks, defining priorities, and taking action.

3: Well-being and Climate Change: A sample of quotes from Tribal members that give insight into

how climate change could affect their way of life, as well as actions that could strengthen wellbeing.

4: Ecosystems and Climate Change: This section covers four ecosystems within the U&A: Marine,

Forest, Wetland, and River and Riparian. For each, the main climate impacts are shared and

highlighted species are covered in-depth.

5: Concerns, Desires, and Hopes: A summary of the general concerns, desires, and hopes shared

by Tribal members in interviews. These move beyond specific impacts and can help guide future

planning and adaptation efforts.

This assessment is intended to be accessible, providing a high-level view of these topics. For more

information, please refer to the list of appendices.

“Given close relationships with the natural world stemming from deep spiritual and

cultural connections and subsistence lifeways, Indigenous peoples are on the

frontlines of those experiencing and adapting to climate change. Indigenous

peoples possess incredible resiliency and innovation, borne from Indigenous

knowledges, worldviews, and countless generations of connection to place (Ford et

al., 2020).

At the same time, climate change impacts for many Tribal communities are already

severe (such as shifts in/loss of key cultural species and land loss due to erosion,

flooding, and permafrost thaw), and the challenges they face responding to

impacts are daunting (such as lack of funding and technical resources and legacies

from colonialism and discrimination). The time to act is now, and the way to act is

together: in community, taking care of one another and all our relations.”

The Status of Tribes and Climate Change report, 2021

This photo scan was shared by Vivian Lee. It shows old-time Hoh smelt fishers on the beach with their dip nets.

HOH INDIAN TRIBE BACKGROUND

This section provides the briefest of histories to ground the reader in the Hoh Tribe’s connection to

and management of resources since time immemorial.

The Hoh people were created by transformation along the Hoh River at the Time of Beginnings.

K’wati, the shape shifting Changer, arrived at the river and found the upside-down people walking

on their hands and fumbling with their dipnets. He righted them and blessed the community with

abundant smelt (Hoh Tribe, 2024). Since that time, the Hoh people have been interconnected with

the Hoh watershed. They traveled extensively along the rivers, in the surrounding mountains, and

into the ocean, as do Hoh Tribal members today. There were at least seven permanent village sites

with longhouses along the river. Many other areas were used seasonally for hunting and fishing.

Tribal members would launch ocean-going canoes from the beach near the Hoh River mouth and go

fishing, hunting, and traveling along the coast, including trips to Destruction Island and Tatoosh

Island. Natural resources from the ocean to the tidelands, from the river to the wetlands and

mountain foothills, were abundant. They provided everything people needed, including food,

fishing gear, medicine, and clothing. A spiritual connection with the natural world was and continues

to be an important part of Hoh cultural practices and identity (CGC, 2019).

The first recorded contacts with colonizers were interactions between the Hoh people and

Europeans and Russians arriving by ship (CGC, 2019). During treaty time in 1855, the Hoh Tribe and

the Quileute Tribe were identified as one tribe. The Quileute and Quinault, together with the Hoh

Tribe, were parties to the Treaty of Olympia, negotiated on July 1, 1855 at a village at the mouth of

the Quinault River, now known as Taholah (United States v. Washington, 384 F. Supp. 312,359, 1974;

Treaty of Olympia, 12 Stat. 971). The Treaty of Olympia was signed by Governor Stevens on January

25, 1856, ratified by the United States Senate on March 8, 1859, and proclaimed by the President on

April 11, 1859 (Treaty of Olympia, 12 Stat. 971).

After signing and ratification of this Treaty, the US government tried to force the Hoh people onto

the Quinault Reservation, but they refused to leave their homelands. The Hoh Indian Reservation

was established, in response, by executive order in 1893 on the south side of the river, despite

requests that it span both sides (Powell, n.d.).

Through the Treaty, the Hoh Tribe reserved their hunting, fishing, and gathering rights in their usual

and accustomed areas (U&A) in perpetuity, along with other rights as a sovereign nation. The

Stevens Treaties have since been litigated many times in court. One of the seminal cases that

reaffirmed the Tribe’s treaty rights is United States v. Washington or the Boldt decision, as it’s

commonly referred to. The first ruling in the Boldt decision was in 1974; there have been over 75

sub-proceedings since. The Boldt decision affirmed that the Tribes who were party to the Stevens

Treaties have rights to half of the fish catch in Washington and are co-managers of the fisheries,

including shellfish. Sub-proceedings have also affirmed the Tribe’s right to hunt and gather in all

“open and unclaimed lands”. Because of their inherent sovereignty and these decisions in Treaty

litigations, the Hoh Tribe is currently an active co-manager of the natural resources in their U&A

(Dorsay, 2024; UW Gallagher Law Library, 2024).

Coastal erosion has removed some of the original reservation land base, but the Tribe has expanded

by getting land back from Olympic National Park and purchasing new lots. The majority of the

reservation and Tribal infrastructure is within both the river floodplain and the Pacific Ocean

tsunami zone. Because of this, the Tribe has experienced a variety of flood disasters throughout the

years. To keep current and future generations safe, the Tribe is relocating to a site outside of the

tsunami zone called the Hoh Highlands. The U&A is much larger than the ceded reservation lands

and extends into the ocean. It contains several rivers, including the 56 miles of the Hoh River which

is home to four species of wild salmon and steelhead (Hoh Tribe, n.d.). The Hoh Tribe has always

managed natural resources in their U&A from historical cultural burning of prairies to today’s

careful cedar harvesting. Currently, the Tribe’s Natural Resources Department (NRD) is responsible

for management. NRD staff run the Chalaat Creek hatchery, co-manage fish populations with the

state of Washington, maintain forest inventories, manage cultural programs, monitor freshwater

quality, and test for harmful algal bloom conditions, in addition to other tasks. All operations are

overseen by the Hoh Tribal Business Committee, the governing body elected by the General

Council.

“I'd love to have things back the way they were in the environment so my

cupboards would be full. It's healthier too.”

Marie Riebe

CHANGING CLIMATE

CONDITIONS IN THE

HOH U&A

AN INTRODUCTION

Climate change is the shift in average weather

patterns over long time periods, like decades. We

have evidence these patterns are changing now,

both from people’s experiences, as this report

shows, and from climate records around the world.

Climate change is overwhelmingly caused by the

high levels of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.

These are produced by burning fossil fuels, like

coal, oil, and gas, for energy. Secondary

contributors include processes like deforestation

and soil degradation due to agriculture (Marvel et

al., 2023). As more greenhouse gases enter the

atmosphere, they trap increasingly more heat. The

magnitude of the changes and the risks they pose

increase with every bit of warming that occurs. This

presents an opportunity; the choices the world

makes today determine our future. Every reduction

that can be made and every emission that can be

cut will reduce the risks that future generations

experience (Jay et al., 2023).

Photos courtesy of Mike Larrabee, Physical Science

Technician with the National Park Service NCCN

Inventory and Monitoring Program

GLACIER LOSS

“The years that I went upriver with my

grandfather [Charles Sailto Sr.], we went all

the way up to the top where the snow and

glacier was. He took pictures of that...I went

up with our biologist and I go ‘Where are the

glaciers?’ They moved up, melted about 10, 15

miles or more. We've been observing them.

They're moving maybe about 2 to 3 feet a

year, melting that much. That has changed

quite a bit.”

Climate changes across the world are not uniform.

The following section covers eight major changes

Tribal members are experiencing and how these

will shift in the future. For more detailed

information, including an in-depth look at flooding

and an overview of different representative

concentration pathways (RCPs), please refer to

Appendices 1 and 2.

Walter Ward

Above are photos of the Blue Glacier, one of

the glaciers that feeds the Hoh River. In both

photos, the red arrows are in the same spot,

showing just how much the glacier retreated

over 109 years. Warming temperatures and

reduced winter snow are causing glaciers to

melt. With less glacial melt, future summer

river flows will be lower.

Each of the future predictions shared here are under RCP 8.5, a scenario in which greenhouse gas

emissions aren’t reduced. See Appendix 1 for more information on RCPs.

WARMER AIR

TEMPERATURES

Observed changes: Tribal members have noticed both warmer winters and

summers, but the reservation stays cooler than other areas because of its

proximity to the ocean. People deal with summer heat by using air

conditioners, fans, swimming, taking drives with the windows down, and

carefully managing their home temperatures via shades and open windows.

Predicted changes: Annual average temperatures in the U&A will be 7 – 8.5°F

warmer. Depending where you are in U&A, there could be 1 – 23 more days per

year above 86°F by the end of the century (Krosby et al., 2018).

Impacts: Rising temperatures drive most of the other changes shown here,

disrupting ecosystems, weather patterns, and human health.

CHANGING

RAIN

Observed changes: Some Tribal members believe rain has stayed the same,

while others have noticed drier summers, noting that they’ve had to mow their

lawn less frequently.

Predicted changes: Winter rain will increase, while summer rain will decrease.

Intense atmospheric river events and winter storms will become more likely.

The risk of drought in the summer increases by 32-47% by 2070 (Raymond &

Rogers, 2022).

Impacts: Increased winter rains will cause more flooding, which could change

the river path and harm fish redds and infrastructure, including roads. More

extreme winter storms can harm human health through power outages and

disaster events. Low summer rain will stress animals and plants and could

cause water shortages for Tribal members. Drought could also increase the

risk of wildfire and cause health problems due to smoke, although this risk is

not yet well understood in the rainforest.

DECREASED

SNOWPACK &

DISAPPEARING

GLACIERS

Observed changes: Tribal members say it snows both less frequently and

smaller amounts on the reservation than when they were young. They’ve also

noticed the snow line on the mountains rising throughout the years.

Predicted changes: Snowpack in the Olympic mountains will decrease and the

glaciers could fully melt by 2070 (Fountain et al., 2022).

Impacts: Less snowpack and glacial melt, in combination with less summer

rain, could lead to drought, increased wildfires, stressed plants, and lower

river flows that are difficult for fish to live in due to high temperatures and low

dissolved oxygen concentrations. Low flows can also physically limit migration

and reduce suitable spawning habitat.

CHANGING

RIVER

FLOWS

Observed changes: The Hoh River is known for its cold water but some Tribal

members say they’ve noticed it warming. Flows are incredibly variable, with

low seasons that prevent fish from moving upstream and high seasons where

flooding is a common occurrence. The river is wider and shallower than it used

to be when some Tribal members were young.

Predicted changes: Because of less glacier melt and rain, summer low flow

season will be longer and lower; by 2040, flows in the Hoh River main stem will

be 20 - 30% lower and by 2080, they could be 41-58% lower. Winter flows will

increase; by 2080, the average winter flow could be 45% higher. The river will

get warmer with August temperatures at the upper end of what salmon can

tolerate (Adams & Zimmerman, 2023).

Impacts: Floods that could change the course of the river and damage

infrastructure will increase, as will as times when the river isn’t safe to

navigate. High flows also scour redds and spawning gravels. Lower summer

flows will be challenging for fish and fisherman, as well as the hatchery.

“Especially getting towards summertime, they're really not a creek. They're

like a trickle...There were times that we did do surveys on that creek but we

couldn't because it was so low. We weren't going to see anything anyway.”

Chief Daki Fisher

SEA LEVEL

RISE &

EROSION

Observed changes: Tribal members have seen coastal erosion dramatically

change their beach. High water and coastal erosion forced members out of the

old village site on the beach in the 1970s.

Predicted changes: Relative sea level will rise around 2.1 ft by the end of the

century (Krosby et al., 2018). Rising sea level and total water levels are

predicted to increase coastal erosion.

Impacts: Coastal erosion will shrink the footprint of the reservation; this

causes harm as the land and cultural resources are affected. Erosion could

also reduce habitat for species living on the beaches, like razor clams. High

total water events can cause coastal flooding in low-lying areas. Outside of the

reservation, ports and other coastal infrastructure that Tribal members use

could be threatened by rising sea levels.

A WARMING

OCEAN

Observed changes: One Tribal member has noticed that their hands get less

cold while processing smelt than they used to. Another has pulled up dead

crabs in pots and attributes that to hypoxic areas (parts of the ocean with too

little oxygen to support life).

Predicted changes: Oceans have warmed around the world and this is

predicted to continue. It’s difficult to predict temperatures in the marine U&A

because there are many processes happening at the same time, like upwelling

and wind patterns. However, it’s predicted that the U&A waters could warm by

1°C by 2050 (Miller et al., 2013).

Impacts: A warmer ocean could cause water circulation and regional weather

patterns to change. It could slow the growth of some phytoplankton, algae at

the base of the food chain. It will lead other phytoplankton to grow rapidly,

causing harmful algal blooms and hypoxic areas. These can kill marine life and

make shellfish dangerous to eat if the bloom produce toxins.

A MORE ACIDIC

OCEAN

Observed changes: Surface pH, or the measurement of acidity in the ocean,

shows that there has been a 30% increase in acidity (Miller et al., 2013).

Predicted changes: By 2100, a 150-200% increase in acidity is predicted.

Aragonite and calcite concentrations, the carbonate ions that many animals

use to build shells, are predicted to decrease (Siedlecki et al., 2021).

Impacts: More acidic waters make it difficult for some creatures, like oysters

and mussels, to grow their shells. When creatures lower on the food chain

struggle, these impacts ripple throughout the entire ocean. There will be other

impacts of an acidic ocean that we don’t yet know; for example, scientists

recently learned that salmon don’t smell as well in more acidic waters

(Williams et al., 2018). This affects First Foods and those whose livelihoods

depend on the ocean.

SHIFTING

PLANTS &

ANIMALS

Observed changes: Tribal members have seen some new species, including

the occasional California squid. Many species have disappeared, like flounder

and certain tidal creatures.

Predicted changes: The prevailing idea is that species who are able to will

generally shift northward, up in elevation, and to deeper depths in the ocean

to find habitat similar in temperature to their original range. Cedar is one

species whose shift is predicted and is highly concerning.

Impacts: This could impact all First Foods and natural resources that Tribal

members are connected with and depend on.

COULD 2015 PROVIDE CLUES ABOUT THE

FUTURE?

Climate change preparation is all about understanding what the future might look like based on the

level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Sometimes we can look to the past to understand the

future.

2015 was Washington’s warmest year on record, so far, with average temperatures being 4.8°F warmer

than pre-industrial times (UW Climate Impacts Group, n.d.). These temperatures are similar to what we

expect in the future. Depending on the emission scenario, by 2050, average temperatures are

predicted to be 1 - 7.5°F higher than the historical record. By 2100, average temperatures could be 2 13.5°F higher (Frankson et al., 2022). This will have ripple effects on the ecosystem including

decreasing snowpack, increasing wildfires, and warmer ocean temperatures:

In 2015, snowpack across WA state was 70% below the normal

amount (normal is considered the 1970-1999 average) (Snover et al.,

2019). On the Olympic Peninsula, the maximum snow depth at the

NPS weather station near Hurricane Ridge was 25 in. The average

maximum depth is 104 in (Baccus, 2018). Summer river flows in the

Olympic Peninsula were some of the lowest ever recorded (Petersen

et al., 2015).

Across WA, 2015 was the biggest wildfire year on record in terms of

acres burned; in eastern WA, over 1 million acres (about the area of

Rhode Island) burned compared to the 10-year annual average of

470,000 (WA DNR, 2022). A lightning strike ignited the Paradise Fire in

the Queets Valley wilderness which burned from May until November

on the Olympic Peninsula (NPS, 2024).

There was a large bloom of Pseudo-nitzschia, an algae, which caused

the largest recorded outbreak of domoic acid, a neurotoxin, along the

west coast of North America. This caused many fishery closures,

including Tribal razor clam and Dungeness crab harvests. The harmful

algal bloom was caused by sea surface temperatures that were 2.5°C

warmer than the average (McCabe et al., 2016). With climate change,

waters will regularly become this warm by 2100.

Photos above are: “Olympic Mountains from Hurricane Ridge” by Paul Cooper, “Washington Wildland Fires” by WA DNR,

and “285_razor_clam_odfw” by OR DFW. All are licensed under CC BY 2.0.

WELL-BEING AND

CLIMATE CHANGE

Everything is interwoven; the plants, animals, and

landscapes that characterize the Hoh U&A cannot be

separated from Tribal members’ health and wellbeing. Because climate change has potential to

damage natural resources and processes, it has

potential to damage the Hoh way of life. However,

opportunities accompany this challenge. Decisions

to protect and enhance natural resources could

improve well-being. The Hoh Tribe has adapted to

change throughout the generations. They will

continue to adapt, guided by their cultural values.

This section shares some perspectives from Tribal

members on the impacts of environmental change.

For more, see Appendix 3.

IMPORTANCE OF CULTURAL PRACTICES

Verla Gomez teaching youth how to create beach

mobiles during the 2024 Hoh Watershed Adventure

Camp. Photo by Kelly Rosales.

IDENTITY

“ [The ocean is] where I belong...It's just me

and a crew doing...what us as people were

meant to do anyway. We live on a coast for

a reason. So we're coastal fishermen.

That's always just been a drive of mine.”

Joe Hudson

“Throughout the different years, we’ve been

having different people in our canoes,

different nationalities. We're leaving from Hoh

River, we're going to La Push or we're going to

Neah Bay. I’m going to ask each one of you

guys ‘What do you see with your own eyes out

here?’ We're sitting in the canoe out in the

ocean, one to two miles offshore. ‘Yeah, lots of

water, we’re in the Pacific Ocean.’ So each one

of you are seeing what our forefathers saw out

here. It's all wildlife, Mother Nature. So you're

seeing what they saw, different day, different

year, seeing the same stuff. Whether you're on

the left side of the canoe or the right side of

the canoe when you're paddling, you're feeling

what they did every day of their lives because

they were fishermen, hunters and gatherers,

all of our families on the coast.”

Chief Howeeshata, Dave Hudson

WELL-BEING AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Photo by Kim Bray

EMOTIONAL IMPACT OF COASTAL EROSION

“We used to be able to have a road on the right side when you get to the

beach to go on to the river. When the river and the king tides came, and

the storms, they just wiped everything away. The Army Corps had to come

in and dig big holes and put big rocks. When I saw it, I cried...I’m like 'Wow.

This is our ancient village. This is our home. We can’t drive down there.' It

was really shocking, and I cried. But now we will open the other side...so

we have river access because that's our elders, our fishermen, our kids...

We all go down there. That's a very sacred place for us.”

Hoh Tribal Member

SPECIES SHIFTS AND

KNOWLEDGE SHARING

INFRINGEMENT ON TREATY RIGHTS

“They're even trying to get us off of the

beach from clamming because they think

that we're only supposed to have a limit

when they have no clue what kind of

Native we are, Hoh River or Quileute or

Quinault. They don't know, but they're

ready to take our buckets and we lift our

shovels and say ‘Come and try it, Mister.

We're calling your supervisor when we get

to the car and you're going to get

transferred because of what you just did.

You're trying to prevent me from doing

what I do to survive. This is our culture, not

yours. It's not part of the park. Your park is

right there at the end of that line. This

ocean does not belong to the park. But it

belongs to us.’”

“Like 23 years ago, I brought them out to

the beach, 4 kids, 5 kids. I brought lunch

and drinks for them and chips. I'm bringing

them to the tide pools and there's nothing

in there. I'm showing them that there's

supposed to be stuff in this tide pool, but

there's no starfish, no mussels, no boots.

We don't get to see those little snails. ”

Vivian Lee

ECONOMIC IMPACTS

“There was just so much fish back in the

day there. Nowadays, man, there aren’t

any seasons to make a living off of.”

Vivian Lee

Richard Sheriff

Drumming and singing at the old village site during the 2024 Hoh Watershed Adventure Camp.

Starting from the left side of the circle, people pictured are Brenda Lee, Mya Fisher, Sonja Hudson, Ruby Sheriff, Vivian

Lee, Chief Howeeshata Dave Hudson, Gene Sampson, and Jay Powell. Photo by Kelly Rosales

ACTIONS TO STRENGTHEN WELL-BEING

The Hoh Tribe currently has many programs underway to strengthen well-being and build climate

resilience. To support those and offer additional ideas about actions the Tribe could pursue, here

are a few ideas for Tribal staff, government, and members to explore. The stars (*) indicate ideas

offered by Tribal members in the climate change interviews.

Protect, conserve, and restore all natural resources and ecosystems within the U&A,

including the most vulnerable like fish habitat, wetlands, riparian buffers, and tidal zones*

Increase Tribal co-management / management and ensure that the Tribe is appropriately

consulted on all decisions that might affect cultural and treaty resources*

Maintain and create strict ordinances and protections against pollution of all kinds*

Host potlatches, drum circles, and cultural events with the whole community*

Retrofit and build new infrastructure with climate change in mind, including roads,

housing, and utilities

Research and employ water saving techniques to ensure Tribal members have enough

water in times of drought

Fund and support robust emergency management programs

Support and increase ongoing cultural programming, including opportunities for youth*

Continue strong participation in the Tribal Canoe Journey, a tradition started by Chief

Howeeshata, Dave Hudson, with others

Expand economic opportunities for the Tribe

Continue to use and teach sustainable harvesting practices*

Advocate for global reduction of carbon emissions in coalition with other Indigenous

groups

Increase natural resources monitoring and protection efforts*

Pursue energy sovereignty while protecting the Hoh way of life and resources

Increase land back, expanding the area that the Tribe can steward*

IN-DEPTH: ENERGY RESILIENCY ON THE HOH

INDIAN RESERVATION

Source: Map originally from Clallam PUD but taken from a NODC presentation

The reservation, roughly represented by the blue star on the map, is in an area

subject to frequent energy outages.

Climate change mitigation requires stopping fossil fuel use. However, energy is essential for human

health so building renewable sources that don’t harm Tribal cultural and natural resources is a

necessity. Because energy is a central topic in climate change conversations, here is a brief look

into energy resiliency on the Hoh Indian Reservation.

Currently, all the energy used on the Hoh Indian Reservation arrives from a single transmission line

owned by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA, n.d.). This line curves around the Hood Canal

and brings energy north along the east side of the Olympic Peninsula. Just east of Beaver, smaller

transmission lines bend south through Forks and carry energy to the reservation. The energy lines

are alternatively owned by BPA and Clallam Public Utility District (PUD). Because this electricity

comes from a singular source, it has multiple vulnerabilities; outages anywhere along the line can

affect the reservation. Winter storms and trees often take out lines and, when they do, the amount

of time it takes to restore power depends on how fast a crew can get there. Currently, BPA doesn’t

allow other companies to work on their lines and they don’t station employees on the peninsula. If

the storms cause other problems, like landslides or a Hood Canal Bridge closure, the response time

is further delayed, lengthening the power outage. In the case of a major earthquake, the entire

peninsula could be out of power for nearly a year (K. Affeld & L. Lesser, personal communication,

April 26, 2024).

In the long term, there are additional risks to energy security. Energy demand is predicted to increase

as populations grow, extreme weather prompts higher usage, and electric vehicle ownership

increases. The existing infrastructure can’t handle a large increase in energy load so updates to the

grid are needed. Finally, 84% of BPA’s energy production is hydroelectric, coming from 31 dams on

the Columbia River and its tributaries (NODC, 2022, US Army Corps of Engineers et al., 2003). Energy

production will be challenged by declining snowpacks and lower summer flows, as well as increasing

summer demands from users who want to stay cool (BPA, 2021).

Having increased local power production and more energy sovereignty could be a compelling

solution for the Hoh Tribe. While it would mean maintaining infrastructure, it would allow the Hoh to

have power sources they support and energy production they have control over. Additionally, local

energy production could be more reliable during times it’s highly needed, like storms, cold snaps,

and heat waves. It could also lead to additional economic opportunities, like selling energy credits.

Electricity is necessary for Tribal operations that are directly connected with health and well-being,

like running the Chalaat creek hatchery and operating both the water supply system and wastewater

treatment plant.

Local energy solutions can include microgrids, solar production with storage, diesel generators,

biomass generators, microhydro, or small scale onshore wind with smaller turbine blades that can be

transported along Highway 101. Microgrids are a self-contained electricity system that can be

connected to the main grid but can also isolate from it when outages occur, producing energy on its

own. A combination of these could be utilized to allow the Hoh Tribe to be more energy independent.

Microgrid success story

In 2017, the Blue Lake Rancheria Tribe in California installed a $6.3 million dollar microgrid consisting of a

0.5MW solar system with a 950kW battery storage system. This system can provide energy for six buildings,

including government offices and an American Red Cross shelter. In 2020, when the utility company Pacific

Gas & Electric had to shut off power to 2 million people in northern California, the Tribe’s microgrid was able

to continue operating. They became an essential emergency responder, serving more than 10,000 people

during the day-long outage. They hosted eight critically ill patients in their functioning hotel rooms, provided

a space for the local newspaper to continue publishing, and had the only open gas station and mini mart in

the region (Wilson, 2020).

HOH ECOSYSTEMS &

CLIMATE CHANGE

This section covers how climate change is expected

to impact the Hoh Tribe’s natural resources. For the

purposes of this assessment, the U&A is divided into

four ecosystems (Marine, Forest, Wetlands, and

River and Riparian) but that division only exists on

paper. These ecosystems and their processes are

interconnected and cannot be separated from each

other. The same is true about humans; Tribal

members and their well-being cannot be separated

from these ecosystems.

Each section has a summary of the climate changes

most likely to affect it. This is followed by a closer

look at 1 - 3 highlighted species and their

characteristics that make them resilient or

vulnerable to climate change. For more information

on each ecosystem and the highlighted species, see

Appendix 4. To see how species vulnerability scores

were calculated, see Appendix 6.

[Talking about school cedar bark harvesting

activities]: “[The chaperones] showed us

where, but now you have to get it at the

right time because it gets sticky or hard

and you can't pull it off the tree as much or

it splits when you try to pull it... It's like the

right time, right place. It’s like you have to

go right after a hot weekend, the first hot

weekend, and then grab it, but if you keep

waiting and waiting, it's going to be too

soft, not good. If you go too early, it’s just

going to split it in half.”

Ruby Sheriff

Youth swimming in the Upper Hoh River during a

summer heat wave. Photo by Kelly Rosales

Photo by Hannah Tennent

MARINE: OCEAN & TIDAL

Projected climate stressors to the ecosystem:

Ocean acidification: Acidic waters with fewer carbonate ions will make it harder for some creatures

to survive, impacting the entire food chain, including salmon.

Warming sea surface temperatures: Warmer temperatures will stress species and make it harder for

them to survive, having ripple effects on the food chain.

Rising sea levels and increasing total water levels: This can cause greater coastal erosion and

flooding events. Species who depend on sandy beaches or have narrow habitats along the beach

could be negatively affected.

Increased marine heatwaves, hypoxic events, and harmful algal blooms: These kill sea creatures

and can create blooms of toxins that shut down fisheries and gathering due to serious risks to

human health.

“We were having a tsunami warning there. Gee, smelts hit the beach. So we're all down

there getting all the smelts there. We had state patrol, Coast Guard, park rangers all

trying to get us off the beach. ‘There's a tidal wave coming.’ We don't care about the

waves there, we want our fish. There's 15 trucks that went down there. We were loading

those 15 trucks up with fish. Everyone there, getting them, using their coats, whatever

they can find to put the fish in their trucks and they're trying to hurry up and get us off

the beach. We're just… we're all worried about the smelts, getting the smelts. Tidal wave

will come, will come. We’ll be with it, we’ll be with it. But we're getting our fish.”

Brenda Lee

(smelt)

Surf Smelt / Hypomesus pretiosus

Uses

Smelt are integral. K’wati

gifted smelt uniquely to the

Hoh Tribe. The smelt are sold,

traded, and eaten in a variety

of forms. Some consider smelt

a medicine. Fishing for smelt is

a treaty right. Smelt are a food

source for marine mammals,

sea birds, and other fish,

including salmon.

Potential climate stressors

Narrowing of beach

spawning habitat due to

coastal squeeze

Lack of prey due to ocean

acidification and shifting

upwelling

Warmer ocean waters

“SmeltPrey01_NWC_TGoo_08262009.jpg” by NOAA is

licensed under CC BY 2.0

Past Conditions

Current Conditions

Coastal beaches from the

Quinault River to the

Quillayute River have long

been spawning grounds for

abundant smelt. People

remember catching 100 lbs of

smelt in one thrust, dipnets

too heavy to lift. When the

smelt would hit, people used

to call north and south, letting

everyone know the smelt had

arrived.

Smelt still spawn in the area

but some Tribal members

report it’s much less than it

used to be, that the fish are

smaller, and that they don’t

arrive in schools. Some Tribal

members say that fish in

recent years have been a

decent size. It’s common now

to only be able to fill a few

coolers, as opposed to being

able to fill a truck with totes of

smelt. Smelt amounts

fluctuate yearly.

Compounding challenges

Natural fluctuations in

population size

Beneficial actions

Conduct research on

coastal smelt

Have communal gatherings

focused on smelt

Assess beach habitat and

protect spawning grounds

(more information and quotes in Appendix 4)

Pacific razor clams / Siliqua patula

“Razor Clams-Pacific Beach_1957” by ConwaySuz is licensed

under CC BY 2.0

Uses

Razor clams are an important

traditional food. They also

have commercial value and

can be used in regalia and

cultural items. Clamming is a

treaty right. They are also

important food for Dungeness

crab, marine fish, and sea

otters.

Potential climate stressors

Ocean acidification

Warming waters

Beach erosion due to rising

total water levels

Past Conditions

Current Conditions

Razor clams have always been

harvested by Hoh Tribal

members.

Tribal members share that the

clams at Kalaloch are smaller

and less abundant that they

used to be. The shells are also

soft and break easily.

Compounding challenges

Nuclear Inclusion X (NIX)

Microplastics in clams

presenting a danger to

human health

Harmful algal blooms and

marine toxins

Otter predation

Beneficial actions

Continue HAB monitoring

Monitor and study razor

clams, as well as beach

erosion

Have communal gatherings

focused on razor clams

Research beach erosion

solution options

“The clams got real small at Kalaloch and south of there all the way to the primitive part.

My sister and I go down that way...we can eat them, but it's just like you have to pick out

the big ones that you do find and you put the little ones back so they can grow.”

Vivian Lee

(more information and quotes in Appendix 4)

Photo by Hannah Tennent

FORESTS

Projected climate stressors to the ecosystem:

Warmer air temperatures: Both plants and animals are adapted to the current conditions in

the forests. If temperatures increase more rapidly than species can adjust, it could stress

them or even make the ecosystem uninhabitable.

Changing water availability through shifting precipitation patterns and declining snowpack:

Longer summer dry seasons will challenge species adjusted to abundant moisture.

Potential for increased wildfire: Large wildfires are rare on the Olympic Peninsula compared

to eastern WA. However, risk factors for fire, like longer dry seasons, are increasing. Large

wildfires could alter forest composition as new species move in after burns.

Insects and tree diseases may thrive in warmer temperatures with longer growing seasons:

For example, the spruce weevil, which prevents Sitka spruce from growing tall, becomes

active after winter when temperatures become warm enough for them (The Oregon Climate

Change Research Institute, 2016).

Expanding invasive species range: Invasive species may be able to move into new areas or

expand their reach as native species struggle with changing conditions.

Roosevelt elk /

Cervus canadensis roosevelti

LESS VULNERABLE

Uses

Elk are a food source. Hunting

is a treaty right. They are

integral to cultural practices,

from different societies to

regalia. Elk are also essential

to the ecosystem; they are

food for mountain lions. When

elk die of natural causes, their

carcasses provide food for

hundreds of organisms.

Potential climate stressors

Spread of less nutritious

invasive plant species

Drought

“Dean_Creek_Elk_3” by BLM OR & WA is licensed under CC BY

2.0

Past Conditions

Current Conditions

Abundant before settlers

arrived. Since settling,

populations have fluctuated

depending on hunting

pressure, logging,

development, and protection.

Many interviewees said elk are

healthy and abundant. Some

said they’ve noticed smaller

herds and elk with smaller

antlers. Elk hoof disease is not

yet prevalent like in other

parts of WA.

Compounding challenges

Elk hoof disease

Chronic wasting disease

Development leading to

habitat loss

Beneficial actions

Preserve and restore

habitat

Monitor and remove

invasive species

Monitor for diseases

Engage youth and others

in hunting

“I went into the hunting scene and, oh man, what a life it is that’s out there.”

Boe Horejsi

(more information and quotes in Appendix 4)

Oval-leafed huckleberry /

oval-leafed blueberry /

Vaccinium ovalifolium

MODERATELY VULNERABLE

Uses

An important food source for

people and animals. Berries

and jam are sometimes sold or

traded. Gathering is a treaty

right.

Potential climate stressors

“Oval-Leaf Huckleberry” by Peter Pearsall is licensed under CC

BY 2.0

Past Conditions

Current Conditions

There are many varieties of

berries around the U&A. Tribal

members have harvested

across the Peninsula and as

far as Mt. Adams for

generations. People had

abundant canned berries to

eat throughout the year.

There are mixed experiences

with berry timing. Some

people report that the season

has shifted earlier, with some

berries freezing after budding

out and huckleberries ripening

in late July and early August

now as opposed to August and

September. Others have

noticed that berry seasons are

later than they used to be and

that there are fewer blue

huckleberries.

Compounding

challenges

Beneficial actions

Monitor and study huckleberry. Not

much is known about their range or

response to climate change.

Maintain and restore bog and wetland

habitats

Determine if a program supporting

huckleberry through seeding efforts

or assisted migration would be

appropriate

Host communal gatherings around

huckleberry

Habitat shift due to rain

and temperature

conditions

Wildfire

(more information and quotes in Appendix 4)

Salmonberry / Rubus spectabilis

LESS VULNERABLE

Uses

Both the berries and the

salmonberry sprouts are an

important food source.

Berries and jam are sometimes

sold or traded. Gathering is a

treaty right.

Potential climate stressors

“Salmonberry” by Ruth Hartnup is licensed under CC BY 2.0

Past Conditions

Current Conditions

Salmonberries have been

abundant and something

people have always eaten.

Some salmonberry areas were

managed with fire because the

fruit yield would increase two

years after being burned

(Zouhar, 2019).

Compounding

challenges

Many interviewees said they

notice fewer berry bushes and

smaller harvests. An exception

to this is abundant

salmonberries in logged areas.

One interviewee said that the

salmonberry sprouts are

bitter tasting now.

Beneficial actions

Monitor and study salmonberry. Not

much is known about their range or

response to climate change.

Maintain and restore riparian

salmonberry habitat

Consider a return to fire as a

management practice

Maintain and revitalize vigorous

invasive species management

Habitat shift due to rain and

temperature conditions

Competition with non-native

plants

(more information and quotes in Appendix 4)

“Swampy bog on Highway 101” by Michael B is licensed under CC BY 2.0

WETLANDS

Projected climate stressors to the ecosystem:

Decreased snow melt, decreased summer rain, and increased temperature: Many of the

bogs along the Pacific Coast depend on rain as their water source, as opposed to

groundwater (Rocchio et al., 2014). Because of decreasing rain predicted in summers, as well

as general warming, wetlands will likely become drier. Models predict that wetlands in

western WA will dry out earlier in the summer than they currently do and wetlands that

already dry out could be lost (Lee et al., 2015). These changes will cause plant species in

wetlands to change, including those that are culturally important like camas and beargrass.

Drying wetlands will also release their stored carbon into the atmosphere, contributing to

climate change.

BACKGROUND

Wetlands are considered essential to Hoh people as excellent areas to hunt and find medicinal plants

(Powell, 2002). Wetlands support an immense amount of life. By area, they are only 2% of

Washington’s landscape but over 66% of vertebrate animals use them. Forty-five percent of

endangered, threatened, or sensitive plants live in wetlands (Rocchio et al., 2014). Certain wetlands

themselves can also be rare, like the Crowberry Bog in the Hoh watershed. It is the only documented

raised bog in the western contiguous United States and has been storing peat, or decomposing plant

material, for over 15,000 years (Rocchio, 2019, Munguía, 2021). This ability to store peat, a type of

carbon, makes preserving wetlands essential to slowing climate change. If wetlands are damaged,

their carbon is released, adding to greenhouse gas concentrations. Unfortunately, wetlands can be

easily destroyed by logging and development. A recent U.S. Supreme Court decision in Sackett v.

Environmental Protection Agency loosened regulations around wetlands, making them more

vulnerable. The Hoh watershed also has many cryptic wetlands, or forested wetlands that are

invisible to satellite imaging, that are excellent carbon storage and valuable habitat (Mesa, 2024).

Indian Tea /

Labrador Tea

Rhododendron groenlandicum

MODERATELY VULNERABLE

Uses

This is a traditional food with

high cultural importance and

medicinal properties. It

provides habitat for birds, as

well as food for insects, bees,

and elk. Gathering is a treaty

right.

Potential climate stressors

Drying and warming

wetland habitat

"Labrador Tea" by Joshua Mayer is licensed under CC 2.0

Past Conditions

Current Conditions

Indian tea has been gathered

since time immemorial in bogs

on the Hoh U&A. Quileute and

Hoh people practiced burning

to maintain the prairies.

People have not observed any

increase or decrease in the

amount of tea. The best time

to harvest is the fall, starting

in September. Some members

share that this timing has

shifted later in the year.

Compounding challenges

Damaging harvest

methods

Decreasing habitat due to

forest encroachment or

development

Beneficial actions

Preserve and maintain

wetland and prairie

habitats

Host communal harvesting

events

Monitor Indian tea as little

information is known

about how it might

respond to climate change

Map wetlands in the Hoh

U&A for management and

protection

Consider returning to

controlled burning as a

management method

(more information and quotes in Appendix 4)

Photo by Kim Bray

RIVER AND RIPARIAN

Projected climate stressors to the ecosystem:

Lower summer flows: The Hoh River will see lower flows in summer due to less summer rain

and declining glacial and snowpack melt. Low flows can block fish migration.

Warming temperatures: A consequence of lower flows is warmer rivers. This creates

challenging environments with lower dissolved oxygen concentrations for fish and other life.

Higher winter flows: Increased winter rain will cause higher flows which can cause floods,

scour habitats, and change the course of the river.

“You have see it to believe it. I could tell you where the river was compared to

where it's at now and it's unrecognizable. It used to rub right up against a

schoolhouse that was across the river about right there on the other side. Now it's

300 yards away from there, from where that schoolhouse is. Just since the ‘90s. It

was a major channel over there at one time. Now it’s just filled in with sand. And it'll

probably be back over there in 30 more years. Just the way the river flows. Who

knows?”

Joe Hudson

(salmon, general)

(salmon, fish, general)

Pacific Salmonids

"Chinook salmon McAllister Springs" by Roger Tabor is licensed

under CC 2.0

EXTREMELY VULNERABLE

To keep the report short, all Pacific salmon are combined. Impacts to different species will depend on their

biological needs and seasonal timing of their life cycles, among other issues.

Uses

Salmonids are a keystone

species ecologically,

economically, and

culturally. Fishing is a

treaty right.

Potential climate stressors

Both river and ocean

temperatures becoming

too warm

River levels becoming

too low in the summer

Winter storms scouring

redds

Lack of prey in the

ocean due to

acidification

Past Conditions

The saying goes that salmon were

so thick, you could walk across the

river on their backs. Interviewees

recalled fishing seven days a week

when they were younger. They

regularly caught 25 – 50lb spring

salmon. Canoes would be so full of

fish that they were difficult to

paddle back to shore without

tipping over.

Compounding challenges

Pollutants, including oil spills

and emerging contaminants of

concern, like 6PPD-Q

Transportation infrastructure

that blocks fish passage, like

under-sized culverts

Degraded streams due to

sediment and invasive species

Habitat degradation due to

legacy logging impacts

Overfishing

Current Conditions

Compared to other rivers in

the US, the Hoh has a healthy

wild salmon run. However,

Tribal members have

witnessed declines over the

generations.

Some people say fish are

smaller and are moving to

new areas to find quality

habitat conditions. Fall

fisheries have occasionally

opened late due to low water

levels. Other seasons have

closed early because of low

catch numbers or below

average numbers of redds.

Beneficial actions

Preserve existing habitat and implement

restoration projects that expand habitat

Increase groundwater connection through

woody debris installation

Continue to buy land along the river to

preserve large buffers and increase Tribal

access

Reduce stressors like urbanization,

pollution, and erosion

Continue monitoring

Remove fish passage barriers

Carefully manage hatcheries to reduce risk

to wild salmon

Connect youth with fishing opportunities

Western redcedar / Thuja plicata

HIGHLY VULNERABLE

“Thuja plicata” by Axel Kristinsson is licensed under CC BY 2.0

Uses

Past Conditions

Redcedar is a cultural

keystone species. It is used to

make many different items,

including canoes, drums,

carvings, regalia, gifts, and

baskets. Different size cedar is

useful; for example, cedars

with large diameters are

needed for dug out canoes.

Cedar items are often traded

or sold as an income source.

Gathering cedar is a treaty

right. Cedars are massive trees

central to the ecosystem,

providing important habitat

and shade for rivers.

Potential climate

stressors

Drought

Wildfire

Current Conditions

Redcedar has been abundant

in the Hoh U&A. Logging of all

species has been extensive in

the U&A and the Olympic

Peninsula (Van Pelt, J., 2007).

Interviewees noted that

forests seem to be healthy,

although there isn’t much old

growth around as there used

to be; even the trees that

wash up on the beach are

smaller than what people

remember when they were

young. Cedar is still accessible

for gathering but some people

are seeing a shift in the best

time to gather it.

There have been fewer

observations of redcedar

dieback along the coast than

in Puget Sound and central

WA (Goodrich et al., 2023).

Compounding

challenges

Beneficial actions

Illegal cedar harvest

and sale, including

boughs, wood, and

bark

Continue communal cedar gathering

Monitor redcedar to understand any

changes in population

Protect existing cedar trees,

particularly in high soil moisture areas,

and allow stands to grow large

Consider planting cedar in areas with

high soil moisture content

(more information and quotes in Appendix 4)

IN OUR WORDS: SPECIES LOSS AND

SHIFT

The decline of fish:

“We need something big to change because they are gone [referring to a fall king

salmon replica in the Natural Resources office that likely weighed 35 – 50lbs and is

longer than 3 ft]. I haven't seen one of them since the ‘80s. That's a big old toad

there. They were regularly like that in our nets.”

Joe Hudson

Fluctuating razor clams:

“I wish we’d get the monster ones down there like in Taholah...One year, I was with

my uncle...We're all in a circle talking and one guy was tapping his foot and the clam

hole chirped up... So we all moved away from him there and that clam he dug out, it

came out like that [shows the size of about a 12-inch clam].

He got full off of that one clam and he said that we used to have those down here.

We don't any more. Only have the medium size or the little ones.”

Brenda Lee

Shifting seasons:

“I do know it's a different time with gathering the cedar because we used to go

towards the end of April, beginning of May and now it's towards the end of May,

beginning of June. We have to wait for the sap to quit running or else our bark, when

we peel it, is pitchy. Nobody wants pitchy bark, especially me.”

Marie Riebe

“Well now, because everything's changing, it's so weird. Usually the huckleberries

and stuff came in August, September and now they're early, they're fast. They come

fast now like early August, late July... It’s just so weird because I never saw

blackberries grow with salmonberries.”

Ruby Sheriff

CONCERNS

This list summarizes the concerns that surfaced in interviews. Some are directly related to climate

change while others are more general environmental concerns but it’s all listed because everything

is connected. Many overlap, even though they are categorized. These are not ranked in any manner

and some represent multiple people’s concerns while others might only represent one person’s.

Harm to species and ecosystems

Declining species, including smaller clams at Kalaloch, declining fish, and the spread of elk hoof

disease. People expressed concerns from economic, cultural, ecological, and subsistence

viewpoints.

An unhealthy ocean, including warming waters, hypoxia events, ocean acidification, and pollution

Overfishing due to sport fishers, state management of fish, and international management

Overhunting of elk due to an abundance of seasons provided by state managers

New development causing harm. Specific impacts mentioned included:

Decreasing habitat for elk

Warming river waters caused by removing trees and making buffer zones too small

Redds becoming damaged by winter floods, sedimentation, and an accelerated river caused by

riverbank armoring and road construction

New development without sufficient science to show there won’t be damage, like moving too

fast on offshore wind

Pollution negatively affecting species and drinking water, including damage to natural springs

Logging cycles that are too short and trees not getting big enough to provide healthy habitat for

birds and other animals

Incorrect commercial harvesting that damages ecosystems. Examples include:

Salal and beargrass being overharvested and in a way that doesn’t ensure continued

productivity

Legacy impacts of bottom trawling in the ocean

Human produced sound in the ocean harming whales

Risk to human health and Tribal infrastructure

Insufficient water supply for people and the hatchery during the summer

Erosion of the reservation area, including the beach, the road, and historical homes

Tsunamis

Flooding risks, both from the river and the ocean

Poor air quality due to both wildfire smoke and pollution

Infringement on treaty rights and cultural traditions

Locked gates preventing access to the U&A (covered in Appendix 3)

Infringement on exercising treaty rights, like people trying to enforce limits or prevent Hoh Tribal

members from being in certain areas

A lack of gathering spaces, like a longhouse, leading to cultural loss and people spending less time

together

DESIRES AND HOPES

This list summarizes the desires that surfaced in interviews. Some are directly related to climate

change while others are more general but it’s all listed because everything is connected. Many

overlap, even though they are categorized. These are not ranked in any manner and some represent

multiple people’s hopes while others might only represent one person’s.

A healthy environment with abundant wildlife populations, including tidal life, fish, and

plants. There were a variety of solutions and actions proposed including:

Habitat restoration along the river to increase shaded areas

Improvements to the Chalaat hatchery, which is generally viewed positively:

More hatcheries on creeks and rivers with year-round flow, like the South Fork

Stocking with additional fish from the Cook Creek hatchery

An expansion of the Chalaat hatchery including increased broodstocking and producing coho

Releasing fish further upriver where the water is colder

More scientific information and monitoring, as well as staff members. There was a request for

more communication that isn’t online between staff and the community. A Tribal member shared

how they felt valued when the Natural Resources Department asked for help in decision making.

Continued focus on removing noxious weeds

More green energy use instead of fossil fuels

Protecting human health and infrastructure

Protection of the current land base and preventing erosion of the beach

An increase in First Foods, including salmon, clams and berries, so that pantries are full

Having abundant educational opportunities for youth, as well as career opportunities, like

internships. Having Native role models and Native representation at schools and in the workplace.

Protecting Treaty rights and ensuring cultural continuance

Increasing access to the U&A

Land back within the U&A

Ensuring protection of treaty rights and maximum harvest allowances for Tribal members. One

Tribal member wanted more fishing days. Another expressed support for closing the river to

fishing for awhile to let the resources rebound.

Having stable cultural programs and providing resources to elders

Widespread teaching and sharing of cultural traditions and knowledge, both within families and

through programs for the wider Tribal community

Continued participation and involvement with the Tribal Canoe Journey

Protection of Hoh Tribal cultural artifacts and restoration of others, like the beach house

Things people are hopeful about

Young people in leadership and stepping up as cultural role models

Ongoing cultural programs and reconnecting with the language

Expansion of economic opportunities in the marine U&A

Careful management of fish

Gratitude

This project benefited from following in the footsteps of others. Being able to

follow their methods and receive inspiration from their work was invaluable.

Here are some of the reports and plans that greatly influenced this

assessment. A full list of referenced publications follows.

Aanji-bimaadiziimagak o’ow aki, a 2023 assessment written by the GLIFWC

Climate Change Team. (The species charts and some interview questions are

directly from their work.)

Climate Adaptation Plan for the Territories of the Yakama Nation Version 1, a

2016 assessment written by the Yakama Nation, Cascadia Consulting Group,

SAH Ecologia LLC, and University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Treaty of Olympia Tribes, a

2016 assessment written for the Quinault Indian Nation, Hoh Indian Tribe,

and Quileute Tribe by The Oregon Climate Change Research Institute.

Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Plan, a 2013 assessment

written by the Jamestown S’kallam Tribe.

Author positionality statement

My name is Hannah Tennent. I am a white American who was raised in New

Mexico and has lived in Seattle, Washington on the land of the Coast Salish

people for the past ten years. I graduated from University of Washington’s

School of Marine and Environmental Affairs in June 2023. This climate change

assessment was the focus of my 2023 - 2024 Hershman Fellowship, a program

run by WA Sea Grant. Because my position as a non-Native fellow working for the

Natural Resources Department could influence this work, I tried to ground ideas

in interview comments and topics addressed in Tribal climate resources.

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APPENDIX 1: REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION

PATHWAY SCENARIOS

Climate models use sets of equations to represent the processes that make up the Earth’s climate.

Models are tested through “hindcasting” or putting in variables from the past, like greenhouse gas

levels, and seeing if the outcome matches historical recorded conditions. Scientists are confident

that models accurately represent earth systems, but each model differs and they all contain some

level of uncertainty because Earth’s complexity is inherently difficult to replicate. Because of this,

ranges of predictions are shared in this report whenever possible. When one scenario is used, it’s

often RCP 8.5, the scenario in which no climate mitigation is done (see below). This was chosen so as

not to underestimate the risks.

Different climate scenarios allow us to prepare for varying futures based on the level of greenhouse

gases in the atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is recognized as an

authority on climate change and they’ve issued several scenario types throughout the years. The

first were published in 1992 and then refined in 2000. One of those scenarios is referenced in this

report: A1B. In this scenario, the world has more efficient fossil fuel technology and, in 2050, both

population and emissions peak (IPCC Working Group III, 2000). This report primarily uses the

scenarios from the 5th IPCC Report called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). These

are defined by how many greenhouses gases are in the atmosphere by the year 2100 (IPCC, 2014):

RCP

Scenario

Level of mitigation

Greenhouse gas

concentration in

atmosphere by

2100 (ppm)

RCP 2.6

Very strict. Greenhouse gases peak around 2020 and then decline to 0

by 2100. The world has passed this scenario.

430 - 480

In 2023, the global average greenhouse gas concentration was 419 ppm (Lindsey, 2024).

RCP 4.5

Some mitigation. Greenhouse gases peak around 2040. This

scenario is still possible but would require immense and

immediate mobilization.

RCP 6.0

(similar to

A1B)

Some mitigation. Greenhouse gases peak around 2080.

RCP 8.5

No mitigation. Greenhouse gases continue to rise.

580 - 720

720 - 1000

> 1000

APPENDIX 2: CHANGING CLIMATE CONDITIONS IN THE

HOH U&A, EXPANDED

Warmer air temperatures ................................................................................................................. 51

Changing rain .................................................................................................................................. 52

Snow ........................................................................................................................................... 53

Melting and disappearing glaciers .................................................................................................... 54

Rivers and streams with warmer temperatures and shifting flows ....................................................... 56

Flooding risks .............................................................................................................................. 58

Sea level rise ................................................................................................................................... 59

Increased coastal erosion ................................................................................................................ 61

A warming ocean ............................................................................................................................. 61

A more acidic ocean ........................................................................................................................ 63

Wildfires and worsening air quality ................................................................................................... 64

Shifting plant and animal ranges....................................................................................................... 65

Warmer air temperatures

The increasing greenhouse gases that cause climate change are like a warm blanket in the atmosphere; they keep

heat in. As humans keep producing greenhouse gases, this blanket gets thicker, and the Earth gets warmer.

Average air temperatures have risen and are predicted to keep rising. This is the underlying cause of most of

the changing climate conditions covered in this appendix.

•

Observed changes: Tribal members say that winters feel warmer than they used to and that summers

are getting hotter. Some noted that the air temperature difference between the reservation and Forks is

noticeable, with Forks being warmer, and they are grateful to live near the ocean where the air is cooler.

One Tribal member shared that they recently bought their first air conditioner.

•

Predicted changes: Temperatures will continue to change seasonally, but, overall, the trend will be

towards warmer temperatures. From 1971-2000, the average annual temperature in the Hoh watershed

was 46.3°F (7.9°C). It’s predicted to rise to 50.8°F (10.4°C) under the RCP 4.5 scenario or to 54.1°F (12.2°C)

under RCP 8.5 by the end of the 21st century. At the end of the 20th century, there were 0.2 days per year

with temperatures over 86°F (30°C). By the end of the 21st century, that could rise to 1 - 23 days depending

on the location in the U&A and on the level of carbon emissions. In the Olympic Mountains that feed the

Hoh River, freeze-free days, or days with a minimum temperature above 32°F (0°C), will increase, reducing

snowfall (Krosby et al., 2018).

Figure 1. Projected Change in Annual Average Daily Temperature 2070-2099 vs. 1971-2000 under a Higher

Emissions Scenario, RCP 8.5. This image shows the Olympic Peninsula with the Hoh watershed, a portion of the

Hoh U&A, outlined in black. Under a high emissions scenario, average annual temperatures along the western side

will rise by 7-8°F while the eastern side will rise >8°F (Krosby et al., 2018).

Changing rain

Abundant rain is a part of what defines the Hoh Tribe’s ecosystems and creates the familiar landscape. The Lower

Hoh River sees an average of 102 to 142 inches of precipitation per year (WA DNR, 1999). In the future, the pattern

of when and how much rain arrives will change. Summer rain levels will decrease, while winter rain will

increase.

•

Observed changes: Some Tribal members aren’t experiencing a shift in rain patterns, noting that the

alternating wet and dry seasons that have always existed are continuing. Others have observed drier

summers. Historically, summer fog levels have been relatively high, and this helps offset some of the

moisture stress (Spies et al., 2018).

“For example, we used to always have to mow our lawn every week, otherwise it

would get too long. Every week we had to mow the lawn. And now this last year, I

think we mowed it maybe three times. I'm pretty sure it was just three times instead

of every week. Even Philip [Riebe] goes ‘Man, I can't believe we're not mowing the

lawn.’ I said ‘I know. It doesn't need it.’”

Marie Riebe

•

Predicted changes:

Winter

Summer

More rain is predicted to fall during the

winter. From 1971-2000, the Hoh watershed

received an average of 115 in of rain in the

winter. From 2070-2099 under RCP 8.5, the

watershed could expect anywhere from 125129 in during the winter (Krosby et al., 2018).

Less rain will fall in summer. Right now, the

watershed sees 34 in from April to September.

Models estimate that the watershed will have a

few inches less fall in the summer, around 32

in by 2070 under RCP 8.5 (Krosby et al., 2018).

Late summer precipitation from mid-July to

mid-September could decline by 1 – 12%

(Raymond & Rogers, 2022).

Increased intensity: Heavy rainfall events,

often called atmospheric rivers, are expected

to become more intense across western

Washington after 2050 because warmer air can

hold more water (Mauger, 2019).

Drought: Drought is legally defined in WA as

summer precipitation below 75% of normal

summer precipitation. Under RCP 8.5, the

chance of summer drought happening

increases as time goes on, up to a 32 – 47%

chance by 2070 (Raymond & Rogers, 2022).

Snow

Increasing temperatures have changed winter on the reservation. Many Tribal members have

observed less snow during winters in their lifetime:

“That field down there, when they first opened it, the snow used to get up there, four or five

feet high. We used to all go over, make a maze in that field. We’d play tag and everything on

that field when we were all younger. Now you can't even get two inches of snow...You can

get it up the road but not here. So that’s how much it really changed.”

Walter Ward

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ruby: “We haven't been having a lot of snow, like it will be snowing and then it’ll be here for

a couple of days, like a day, three days and then it's melted and gone. It’s just bogus

because I love the snow.”

Interviewer: “Do you feel like it snowed more when you were younger?”

Ruby: “Oh yeah, because my sister used to bring us to the beach, and we’d go down that big

hill down there... We had to go early in the morning when nobody drove in it because we

only get a couple inches of snow and not a couple feet of snow.”

Ruby Sheriff

---------------------------------------------------------------------------“I don't know if it was just a shorter time period, but it seemed like we had more snow

days... throughout the whole school year. It wasn't just one week straight. It might have

been different times of the year I thought but it was too crazy. We had more snow when I

was younger, but maybe it was just that I couldn't keep track of time or something like that.

Whether it was one a week, but it seemed like it was different times of the year.”

Richard Sheriff

Melting and disappearing glaciers

The thin glaciers on the Olympic Mountains are particularly susceptible to temperature shifts. They exist at a

relatively low elevation where a slight air temperature change can transform snow to rain. At Hurricane Ridge

(5,242 ft) on the northeastern side of the National Park, the average winter temperature is 29°F (Baccus, personal

communication, 2024). Because of warming temperatures, glaciers are a fraction of what they once were,

and they are predicted to disappear by 2070 if carbon emissions are not curbed.

“The years that I went upriver with my grandfather [Charles Sailto Sr], we went all the way

up to the top where the snow and glacier was. He took pictures of that. When I first went up,

it was pretty much this way. I went up with our biologist and I go ‘Where are the glaciers?’

They moved up, melted about 10, 15 miles or more. We've been observing them. They're

moving maybe about 2 to 3 feet a year, melting that much. That has changed quite a bit.”

Walter Ward

•

Observed changes: Historically, snow fell on the Olympic Mountains in winter where it contributed to

glacier growth and formed snowfields. With temperature shifts, much of that snow is now falling as rain.

Then, as warmer summers arrive, melting of the dwindling snowpack and shrinking glaciers starts earlier

and continues steadily through the summer. One Hoh Tribal member shared that they’ve seen the snow

line shift upward throughout their life. This observation matches the monitoring record; there has been a

downward trend in snowpack levels in the Olympics since 1949 (Baccus, personal communication, 2023).

In 2015, the area of glacial ice and snowfields in the Olympic Peninsula was only half of what it was in 1900

(Fountain et al., 2022). From 1980 – 2009, temperature rise reduced the Hoh Glacier’s thickness by 15%

(Riedel et al., 2015).

Blue Glacier Loss 1899 - 2008

Figure 2: Blue Glacier Loss. The red arrows are in the same spot on each photo, showing the dramatic loss of Blue

Glacier, one of the glaciers feeding into the Hoh River (Photos provided by Mike Larrabee, Physical Science

Technician with the National Park Service NCCN Inventory and Monitoring Program).

Figure 3. Cumulative Balance by Stake – Blue Glacier. This graph shows the cumulative balance of the glacier,

or how much ice it has and whether it is gaining mass, remaining the same, or losing mass. By taking accurate

measurements of the stakes, scientists can calculate how much mass the glacier has gained or lost in any given

year. The stakes are at different elevations along the glacier. In more recent years, the lower elevation stakes in

areas with warmer temperatures have increasingly lost more mass. The change is more pronounced in the lower

elevation stakes, but most of the higher elevation locations are losing mass too, except Stake 1. (Graph provided

by Mike Larrabee, Physical Science Technician with the National Park Service NCCN Inventory and Monitoring

Program)

•

Predicted changes:

o Glacial disappearance: Glaciers are predicted to fully disappear from the Olympic Mountains by

2070 if carbon emissions continue unabated, the future represented by RCP 8.5. If emissions are

quickly mitigated, under the RCP 4.5 future, glaciers will be around a few square km and exist only

on Mt. Olympus (Fountain et al., 2022).

Rivers and streams with warmer temperatures and shifting flows

The streams and rivers in the U&A are predicted to be warmer, with higher winter flows and lower summer

flows. The mainstem of the Hoh River is predicted to have an average August temperature of 16 – 20°C, the

upper end of the temperature range in which salmon can survive (Adams & Zimmerman, 2023).

•

Observed changes:

Water temperatures: The Hoh River is known for having cold water, but temperatures in streams

are rising; currently 14 waterbodies have high water temperatures unsuitable for their designated

salmonid habitat (NWIFC, 2020).

Flows: Since 1960, the 7-day minimum recorded flow on the Hoh River has been highly variable but

the overall trend is decreasing. The minimum flows range from 260 cubic feet per second (cfs) –

1000 cfs. In years where it was below 300 cfs, Tribal staff members observed Chinook salmon

unable to move upstream (Golder Associates Inc., 2005).

Changing shape of the river: Tribal members shared how the river is wider and shallower now than

it used to be when they were younger. The river and its tributaries are likely widening, in part, due to

effects of historical logging. Before riparian buffer zones were established as the best practice, the

old growth trees were removed right up the edge of the streams. The alder stands and other trees

that grew up in their absence aren’t large enough to prevent the banks from eroding during high

flows, allowing the channels to widen. Additionally, when the small trees now along the river fall in,

they are washed downstream. Unlike old growth trees, they don’t create hard points in the river and

build islands that add structure. The wider channels, along with a lack of large woody debris to

create deep pools and less canopy cover, contribute to the rising stream temperatures.

Interviewer: “You were saying the creeks change. It sounds like with high water they could

split or change spots. Were there any other ways that the creeks were changing?”

Daki: “Especially getting towards summertime, they're really not a creek. They're like a

trickle...There were times that we did do surveys on that creek, but we couldn't because it

was so low. We weren't going to see anything anyway.”

Chief Daki Fisher

•

Projected changes:

o Lower summer flows: The receding glaciers are one of the primary culprits behind lower summer

flows. Between 9 - 15.4% of the total summer flow in the Hoh River currently comes from glacial ice

and snow melt. However, the glacial contribution can increase to as much as 18- 30% of the flow

in August, with 1/3 of that coming from melting glacial ice alone (Riedel et al., 2015). Summer flows

are in for severe reductions due to this disappearing glacial contribution and less rain. By 2040, the

Hoh River mainstem could see flows that are reduced by 20 – 30% in the summer, while smaller

tributaries will see reductions of less than 10% (The Oregon Climate Change Research Institute,

2016). By 2080, under a high emissions scenario, the average summer flow in the mainstem could

be 41 - 58% lower and the duration of low streamflow will get longer (Adams & Zimmerman, 2023;

Raymond & Rogers, 2022).

Higher winter flows: Winter flows will grow with increased rain, as will spring flows with earlier

snowmelt. Mean winter increases of 0 – 10% are predicted in streams and tributaries. These small

changes accumulate in the Hoh River which could see the winter average flow increase by 45%

(Adams & Zimmerman, 2023). More 100-year magnitude floods are expected (Miller et al., 2013).

Warmer temperatures: While water temperatures aren’t predicted to rise as much as in other

watersheds along the coast due to glacial melt and snow input, the Hoh U&A will see warming

waters that are harmful to fish. Under RCP 8.5, the headwaters are anticipated to stay below 12°C

(53°F) in the summer but the mainstem of the Hoh is predicted to have August average

temperatures between 16-20°C (60-68°F), at the upper end of the salmonids’ range (Adams &

Zimmerman, 2023). Because that’s a prediction of the average, there will be days where portions of

the river have temperatures above what salmonids can tolerate.

Figure 4. Glacier contributions to Hoh River, May – September. This graph shows how much water in the Hoh

River has come from glacial melt or runoff from the watershed in various years from 2014. In warmer years, like

2015, glacial melt has increased and is a higher percentage of the overall flow. (Graph provided by Mike Larrabee,

Physical Science Technician with the National Park Service NCCN Inventory and Monitoring Program).

Flooding risks

Floods have long been a part of life on the Hoh Indian Reservation. People moved from their homes at the beach

to homes further inland due, in part, to the ocean flooding. When a braid of the Hoh River was further south than it

currently is, flooding of the baseball field and Tribal offices was common. Some of the housing close to creeks

sees regular floods whose impacts range in severity, from lifting the boats in people’s yards to causing toilets to

back up and turn into mini geysers. Floods have forced the Tribe to replace water wells and sewer systems, and

they’ve had to declare disasters over 20 times (Bridgeview Consulting, 2022). Outside of the reservation, flooding

can affect critical infrastructure, like when high waters washed out the Bogachiel Bridge in 1979 making Highway

101 impassable to the north. WSDOT has ranked the section of highway from the reservation north to milepost

185, south of Forks, as having high vulnerability to climate change due to extreme weather events, sedimentation

from glaciers, and rising rivers and creeks (WSDOT, 2011).

Flooding in the Hoh U&A, from both the rivers and the ocean, will increase due to increasing winter precipitation,

sea level rise, and higher extreme total water level events. Frequency and severity are likely to increase with

water entering new areas than previous flood patterns. Floods are a wide-reaching and expensive climate

change impact. They can cause unsafe housing conditions, deaths, property and infrastructure damage, harm to

salmon habitat, and road closures that can cut off emergency response routes. The Hoh Highlands development

is the primary mitigation strategy as it will place infrastructure out of both the tsunami zone and the river’s 100year floodplain (Bridgeview Consulting, 2022). However, important cultural resources and locations will remain in

the floodplain even after infrastructure is moved. Because of the risks posed to cultural resources and

surrounding infrastructure, like Highway 101, flood preparation and response should be considered an

essential part of climate change adaptation.

Figure 5. Flood risk along the Hoh River. This map shows areas that are at risk from flooding. The coast is a

FEMA 1% V zone or a coastal area that has a 1% chance of flooding each year. These are also referred to as 100year floods and are large floods. The orange area along the river is a FEMA A Zone, or a river area with a 1% change

of being inundated by a large flood every year. A flood of this size would cover Lower Hoh Road and infrastructure

on the western side of the reservation. It also gets quite close to the middle of Lower Hoh Road and Highway 101.

The Highlands area, roughly located by the star on the map, is out of the flood zone. (Map from NOAA Coastal

Flood Exposure Mapper, https://coast.noaa.gov/floodexposure/#-10575352,4439107,5z ).

Sea level rise

Sea level has been rising around the globe at an average of 0.17 in per year for the last decade (2013-2022) (May et

al., 2023). This is due to warmer temperatures causing large ice sheets on land to melt and expansion of the

seawater itself as it warms. Sea level will continue to rise along the U&A coastline but predicting an exact

amount is complicated because the land is rising due to plate tectonic activity (Miller et al., 2013).

•

Observed changes: Tribal members have seen the ocean dramatically change their beach and

reservation area; this is covered in the coastal erosion section below. One Tribal member shared how

they’ve seen the ocean drop and how the waves coming into the mouth of certain rivers are much larger

than they used to be.

Predicted changes: In the shorter term (2040-2059), under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5, some sea level rise in

the U&A is predicted – around .6 -.8 ft higher than sea level from 1991-2009. As time goes on, there is a

greater rise. From 2090-2109, under RCP 4.5, the rise along the reservation is around 1.6 ft, with areas

north of the reservation, around La Push, seeing less, around 1.4 ft. With RCP 8.5, this increases with the

beach near the reservation seeing 2.1 - 2.2 ft (Krosby et al., 2018). Over time and with greater amounts of

greenhouse gas emissions, the level of sea rise increases. This rise is buffered a bit, compared to other

places around the world, because the northwest coast of the peninsula is also rising.

One risk of sea level rise is groundwater rise or the lifting of the water table due to seawater pushing further inland.

Rising groundwater can damage underground infrastructure and increase flooding (California Coastal

Commission, 2024). Whether or not groundwater rise is a threat for the Hoh Tribe has not yet been studied.

Figure 6. Range of Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) Projections along the Hoh Reservation beachfront and a

portion of the U&A. This visualization shows the full range of sea level rise projections for the portion of the coast

along and south of the Hoh Indian Reservation, shown in the map on the left. The 1%, 50%, and 99% percentages

represent the likelihood that sea level rise will meet or exceed a certain measurement. It is very likely, 99%

likelihood, that sea level rise will be 0.5 ft by the end of the 21st century under a high RCP scenario. There is a 50%

likelihood the rise will be around 1.8-2.1 ft at the end of the century under RCP 8.5. Regardless of the scenario, sea

levels rise with time (Lavin et al., 2019).

Increased coastal erosion

Higher total water levels could increase coastal erosion as sea levels rise.

•

Observed changes: Coastal erosion has severely changed the shape of the Hoh Indian Reservation. The

•

original 640 acres of the reservation land base was reduced to 443 acres by 2009 due to erosion both from

the ocean and the Hoh River (Testimony of Chairman Walter Ward on the Hoh Indian Tribe Safe Homelands

Act, 2009). Because of this, some families have lost fishing grounds along the river and a canoe landing

was washed away. Tribal members shared that they used to have a long beach they could drive on but now

it’s much smaller. In addition, coastal erosion and high waters were part of what forced the Tribal

members living in the homes right on the beach to move in the early 1970s.

Predicted changes: A risk that accompanies rising sea levels is extreme total water levels, or times

when different processes occur simultaneously, producing unusually high levels of water. These

processes can be storm surges, high tides, seasonal water levels, and wave run-up (The Oregon Climate

Change Research Institute, 2016). Specific estimates of where extreme total water level events might

reach are unknown because there are few observations of historical events and the coast is a complex

area, making modeling expensive (Miller et al., 2019). Sea level rise will increase the reach of these

extreme total water level events, causing greater erosion of the beach and coastal bluffs.

A warming ocean

Sea surface temperature is steadily rising and will continue as the ocean absorbs most of the greenhouse

gases. Marine heatwaves will become more frequent and more intense.

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Observed changes: Much of the heat emitted by humans has sunk into the ocean. This has caused

ocean waters to warm (The Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, 2016). One Tribal member

reported noticing this and many shared that it’s a large concern. Global sea surface temperatures have

been steadily rising since the mid 1900s. However, temperature patterns in the Hoh marine U&A are

difficult to track. There are many drivers that affect water temperature, including El Niño-Southern

Oscillations, wind patterns, and upwelling. Studies done in the Olympic National Marine Sanctuary, which

overlaps with the Hoh marine U&A, reflect this variability; some have found increasing temperatures while

others didn't come to any conclusion because they found the data lacking or too irregular (Miller et al.,

2013).

Hoh Tribal Member: “I noticed that the water is really warm when the smelts are coming in.

The last couple of summers...the water has been really warm. You can definitely feel the

water being warm.”

Interviewer: “Is it the ocean water?”

Hoh Tribal Member: “Mm-hmm [affirmative]. I'm like ‘Wow, that's really warm.’ Because

usually our hands will get cold when we're cleaning and packing them.”

Figure 7. Global Daily Sea Surface Temperature Measurements. The ocean temperatures shown here come

from the NOAA Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) version 2.1 dataset. This dataset splits the world into small

grids, takes sea surface temperatures from satellites, ships, and buoys, and then estimates what the

temperatures are for the grid squares that don’t have measurements. In this graph, the daily sea surface

temperature of all the grids is averaged together. From 1981 – 2025, the ocean has been getting warmer, on

average, and 2024 and 2025 have been incredibly warm years (Climate Reanalyzer, n.d.).

•

Predicted changes:

Increasing temperatures: Globally, oceans are certain to warm but the amount depends on the

level of greenhouse gas emissions. Models using different emissions scenarios predict a range

between 1.5°C - 2.6°C by 2100. Overall, downscaled climate models predict that the coastal

Olympic waters could warm up by 1°C by 2050. This could have a variety of effects including

changing water circulation patterns, altered regional weather patterns, and shifts in the amount of

phytoplankton algae at the base of the food chain (Miller et al., 2013).

More frequent and intense marine heatwaves: Marine heatwaves are periods where the water

temperatures are higher than the standard seasonal variation for at least five days, although they

can last for over a year. They fuel algal blooms and harm marine life, with repercussions

reverberating around the food web. The infamous 2014-2016 “blob” was a marine heatwave that

caused species to travel north for hundreds of miles, aided in the growth of large harmful algal

blooms, stranded sea lions, and killed many seabirds and whales. Marine heatwaves have

intensified in recent decades due to increasing greenhouse gases and they are projected to

increase in frequency, intensity, and size as greenhouse gas levels rise (Wrubel et al., 2025).

Increasing hypoxia: Hoh Tribal crabbers have found limp, dead crabs in their pots and wondered if

it was caused by hypoxia, or low concentrations of dissolved oxygen that can stress or even kill

marine organisms. Ocean circulation is one factor that controls hypoxic events because currents

from around the globe contain different levels of dissolved oxygen. Additionally, high levels of

bacteria associated with large phytoplankton blooms can further deplete waters of oxygen as the

bacteria breathe (Miller et al., 2013). Because warm water holds less oxygen than cold water and

because ocean mixing is predicted to decline, the Hoh marine U&A is likely to see more hypoxic

events that will harm marine life.

Harmful algal blooms: While harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a natural phenomenon, they have

increased in recent decades. This has been linked to rising temperatures because the

phytoplankton species that cause the blooms can grow more quickly and for longer periods of time

in warmer water (Gobler et al., 2017). More HABs are predicted which will prevent Tribal members

from eating and harvesting shellfish.

A more acidic ocean

The ocean takes up most of the carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Once it’s in the sea water, a chemical

reaction called ocean acidification occurs which decreases pH levels and lowers the amount of carbonate ions in

the water. Ocean acidification is predicted to increase in the Hoh marine U&A.

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Observed changes: Global surface ocean pH has fallen from 8.2 to 8.1, which, because the pH scale is

•

logarithmic, is a 30% increase in acidity (Miller et al., 2013). The Olympic Coast is considered particularly

vulnerable to acidification because so much upwelling is occurring. The deep ocean waters that rise to the

surface are already low in pH and high in CO2 due to biological activity. When these mix with surface

waters that are absorbing atmospheric CO2, it can worsen acidification (WSG, 2014).

Predicted changes: Global surface ocean pH is expected to continue falling to around 7.8-7.9 by 2100

which would be a 150-200% increase in acidity from pre-industrial levels (Miller et al., 2013). pH levels in

the Hoh marine U&A are also predicted to fall, although the level depends on the model. Aragonite and

calcite concentrations, the carbonate ions that many animals use to build shells, are predicted to

decrease from the surface to the bottom waters (Siedlecki et al., 2021).

Wildfires and worsening air quality

Wildfire is a natural and necessary part of ecosystems, but climate change is causing the number of fires and their

intensity to increase. Annual instances of wildfires are predicted to rise around the Western United States due to

decreasing summer rain and drier plants. Risk factors for wildfire on the Olympic Peninsula, like less summer

rain and smaller snowpacks, will increase but it’s difficult to predict how much more wildfire Tribal

members might experience in the U&A. Smoke from wildfires near and far will continue to be a health

hazard.

•

Observed changes: The air on the reservation and in the surrounding area has gotten smoky from

wildfires, but Tribal members share that it’s primarily from Canadian or Californian wildfires. For some

people with asthma, this has limited the amount of time they can spend outdoors. Tribal members also

report that fires in the area are increasing.

•

Predicted changes: Historically, Hoh and Quileute peoples used fire as a tool to manage certain

landscapes. These would have been smaller burns than naturally occurring wildfires. Natural wildfires on

the Olympic Peninsula were rare but had high severity. Climate records like tree rings, charcoal in lake

sediments, and modern recorded fire history show that wildfire increases with higher temperatures, low

precipitation, low snowpack, and drought. Because these are conditions we expect to see in the future,

wildfires are likely to increase in both frequency and size (Ho et al., 2023). Because there is so little

information on historical wildfires, it is difficult to make specific predictions about the future based on data

aside from the risk factors (Morgan et al., 2019). Wetter conditions on the Olympic Peninsula do make the

Hoh U&A less vulnerable than drier parts of the state.

One factor that increases wildfire risk is the infrastructure needed to respond. While the chance of wildfire might

be low, the current lack of a Hoh fire department and the long response time of outside agencies increase the risk

posed by fires on the reservation and surrounding lands. The Tribe has fought structure fires with hoses and

watched buildings burn down due to a lack of structural fire response (Bridgeview Consulting, 2022). Additionally,

infrastructure on the reservation and in nearby towns where Tribal members live, work, and visit, like Forks, is in

the wildland urban interface. It’s comingled and adjacent to forests, making that infrastructure susceptible to

burning if a fire came through (see Figure 8 below). Finally, as wildfire will continue to increase across the western

US and Canada, smoke remains a health hazard, particularly for youth, elders, and those with chronic health

conditions.

Figure 8. Wildland Urban Interface on the west side of the Olympic Peninsula. This map shows the high levels

of wildland urban interface (WUI) in areas where Tribal members live and work, including the Hoh Indian

Reservation, Forks, La Push, and Port Angeles. It’s not possible to fully predict wildfire risk just by location but

infrastructure located in the interface is vulnerable (WA Department of Natural Resources, 2019).

Shifting plant and animal ranges

Many species are adapting to climate change by moving their range and finding new habitats that can better serve

their needs. Animals and plants native to the Hoh U&A may move out of it and new species could arrive.

•

Observed changes: Hoh and other Tribal fishermen in the area have seen new fish species off the coast,

•

including the occasional California squid. Many Tribal members report that they haven't seen any new

species. However, many have noticed species loss. They don’t see flounder at the mouth of the river

anymore and tidal life, like urchin, starfish, and slippers (or chitons), have disappeared from some areas.

While the cause isn't currently known, documenting what changes have happened could lead to greater

understanding of the future.

Predicted changes: The general understanding has been that species will shift northward, up in

elevation, and to deeper depths in the ocean to find habitat similar in temperature to their original range.

Some species are shifting counterintuitively, towards warmer temperatures. Many factors, including

precipitation patterns and available habitat, could be complicating how species are moving (Rubenstein et

al., 2023). We can expect species in the U&A to shift but specific predictions will be unique to each

species, their habitat, and their needs.

Rosetta Leitka and Cecilia Ashue (second and third from left, in red and white shirts respectively) teach youth how to

weave cedar headbands during the 2024 Hoh Watershed Adventure Camp. Photo shared by Kelly Rosales.

APPENDIX 3: HOH WELL-BEING AND CLIMATE

CHANGE, EXPANDED

In 2019, Dr. Melissa Poe, social scientist, and WA Sea Grant’s Assistant Director for

Outreach, and Bernard Afterbuffalo Jr., Hoh Tribal Councilmember and Natural Resources

staff member, interviewed Hoh Tribal members about well-being for the research project

“The Olympic Coast as a Sentinel: An Integrated Social-Ecological Regional Vulnerability

Assessment to Ocean Acidification”. Eight components that define Hoh Tribal health and

well-being emerged from these interviews. They provide a rich portrait of what’s needed by

Tribal members for a good life. Appendix 3 contains information on how climate change

might impact each of these well-being components, including many quotes from Tribal

members.

The information from that project is protected by a data agreement. Because of this,

Appendix 3 will only be shared freely with Hoh Tribal members, staff, and leadership. If you

fall outside of these groups but are interested in reading it, please email the Hoh Tribe

Natural Resources Director and share the nature of your request.

Photo by Hannah Tennent

APPENDIX 4: HOH ECOSYSTEMS AND CLIMATE

CHANGE, EXPANDED

Appendix 4 is a comprehensive look into climate impacts to ecosystems in the Hoh U&A. It

contains projected impacts, species change charts, more information on the species

vulnerability assessments, and experiences from Tribal members. Because this appendix

discusses Tribal resources in detail, it’s freely available only to Hoh Tribal members, staff,

and leadership. If you fall outside of these groups but are interested in reading it, please

email the Hoh Tribe Natural Resources Director and share the nature of your request.

APPENDIX 5: ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

This assessment is based on thirteen interviews of Hoh Tribal members (youth, adults, and elders)

and a synthesis of current climate research. Therefore, it does not include all Tribal members’

knowledge and opinions, nor can it predict both how science and climate conditions will evolve in

the future. It is a foundation for climate adaptation work that will change as new experiences,

understandings, and priorities emerge.

Interviews

Interviews were conducted in person from November 2023 to March 2024 either in Tribal offices or

in participants’ homes. They lasted one to three hours. Kelly Rosales, Tribal Historic Preservation

Officer, and Hannah Tennent, WA Sea Grant Hershman Fellow, led each interview. Interviews were

semi-structured, and each one was recorded. While each interview took its own path, the outline of

the questions used is available in Appendix 7. All interviews followed the principle of free, prior, and

informed consent. Interviewees are welcome to retract their consent at any point and have quotes

removed from this assessment if they see fit. Interview participants received an honorarium to

thank them for their time and honor the expertise they shared.

The interview transcripts were returned to all interviewees for review and all requested revisions

and edits were made. After edits were finalized, the interviews were qualitatively analyzed using

Atlas.TI.

Well-being and climate change

The Hoh well-being indicators are from “The Olympic Coast as a Sentinel: An Integrated SocialEcological Vulnerability Assessment to Ocean Acidification.” The Hoh Tribal interviews were led by

Dr. Melissa Poe and Bernard Afterbuffalo Jr. The effects that climate change could have on the

indicators were synthesized from interviews and literature solely by me, Hannah Tennent.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

The climate change predictions were compiled from climate tools and scientific literature.

Interviewees discussed many important species, all of which are included in the species change

charts. There wasn’t enough time to do in-depth research into each species so eight that were

spoken about frequently and hold significance were chosen for vulnerability assessments. Six of

the species were assessed with NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) tool,

version 3.02. This is an Excel based tool that determines vulnerability scores based on species’

attributes and climate models. Information from both interviews and literature was used to create

these scores.

However, the NatureServe CCVI tool is currently designed to only address terrestrial species. For

the highlighted marine species in this assessment, razor clams and smelt, I used the sensitivity

characteristics defined by NOAA in their 2015 “Methodology for Assessing the Vulnerability of

Marine Fish and Shellfish Species to a Changing Climate.” This methodology requires having a

group of experts rate each category to determine a vulnerability score. Because I didn’t have a

group of experts and because there are still many data gaps with these species, I did not generate a

score. However, the qualitative assessment provides information about how each important

species might be vulnerable to changing ocean conditions.

Because the assessment was done without a team, I discussed many of the topics with experts in

the field, both in the Hoh Natural Resources department and outside. Thank you again to everyone

who talked about this work with me.

APPENDIX 6: NATURESERVE CCVI AND MARINE SPECIES

VULNERABILITY SCORES

These charts show the rationale for each species’ score.

Marine species using NOAA methodology ................................................................. 70

6r95piks (smelt) / Surf smelt or day smelt / Hypomesus pretiosus ........................ 70

yz/l85mala / Razor clams / Siliqua patula ........................................................... 72

River and terrestrial species using NatureServe CCVI methodology ............................ 74

n85ki7 / Roosevelt Elk / Cervus canadensis roosevelti ........................................ 75

Oval-leafed Huckleberry / Vaccinium ovalifolium ............................................ 77

cha/q57owa / Salmonberry / Rubus spectabilis .................................................. 79

Indian Tea or Labrador Tea / Rhododendron groenlandicum ............................. 81

hz5d85m2a (salmon – general) / /q5;ita (salmon, fish – general) / Pacific Salmonids

(Winter and Summer Steelhead, Spring and Fall Chinook, Fall Coho, and Chum

Salmon)........................................................................................................ 83

rsq5pis / rsarq5pis / Western Redcedar / Thuja plicata .......................................... 86

Marine species using NOAA methodology

Species

6r95piks (smelt) / Surf smelt or day smelt / Hypomesus

pretiosus

Factors that affect sensitivity:

Species range within the

U&A:

Stock size/status: To

determine if the stock's

resilience is compromised

due to low abundance

Other stressors: Examples

include habitat degradation,

pollution levels, parasites,

harmful algal bloom

Smelt have always been in the Hoh U&A. Day smelt have arrived

on the Hoh beaches for generations, although the specific

location varies.

Unknown - Hoh Tribal members have experienced large

decreases in the numbers of smelt throughout the decades.

There are no current stock assessments for surf smelt. However,

it’s common for forage fish to have large fluctuations in

population and these aren’t well understood (Jacobsen &

Essington, 2018).

Unknown – Other stressors for smelt have not been identified.

exposure, and invasive

species.

Population growth rate:

Estimate the productivity of a

stock

Complexity in reproductive

strategy: Identify

reproductive strategies that

may be disrupted by climate

change

Unknown – I did not find information on smelt population growth

rate.

Low - Smelt spawning requires that large populations be in the

same place together. The species is generally considered a large

aggregate species, although not much is known about their

behavior outside of spawning. There aren’t other known

complexities.

Spawning cycle: Identify

spawning strategies that are

sensitive to changes

Moderate - There are spawning events throughout the year.

Forage fish spawning has been found along the Hoh U&A coast

from February – September (Langness et al., 2015). Both day and

night smelt have been observed arriving at the beach from April –

October, with most arriving in the summer.

Early life history survival

High sensitivity due to beach requirements and sensitivity to

and settlement

climate change - Surf smelt spawn on beaches where their eggs

requirements: Determine

adhere to the gravel. Some sea level rise is predicted in the Hoh

the relative importance of

U&A and this could erode the beach, narrowing surf smelt

early life history

spawning habitat. In addition to sea level rise, beach

requirements for a stock

development can reduce available habitat and vegetation that

keeps the beach shaded. Even if habitat is available, air

temperatures can harm eggs. Warmer and drier beach

conditions have been shown to lead to higher levels of smelt egg

mortality (WDFW, 2015).

Sensitivity to ocean

Moderate - Ocean acidification will negatively affect some types

acidification: Determine the of phytoplankton while others will do well. The balance and

stock's relationship to

composition of species will change (Dutkiewicz et al., 2015). It’s

"sensitive taxa"

unknown how smelt will respond to this shift.

Habitat specificity:

Low sensitivity - When not spawning, not much is known about

Determine the relative

smelt habitat except that they school and live in the open ocean.

dependence a stock has on

They can range from California to Alaska but it’s unknown how

habitat and the abundance

far each population might travel (Harbo, 2022). Unlike coral reefs

of the habitat

or salt marshes, pelagic habitats are considered to have low

sensitivity.

Prey specificity: Determine

Moderate - Surf smelt eat plankton, a classification that covers

if the stock is a prey

many different organisms. Because there are many types, smelt

generalist or a prey specialist can shift what they eat based on what’s available. One study

found that coastal Washington smelt ate different prey in years

when sea surface temperatures were warm and cool. In 2000, an

average temperature year, the smelt stomachs they surveyed

primarily had decapods. In 2011, a cool year, their prey was

primarily copepods, phytoplankton, amphipods, and pteropods.

In 2016, a warm year, they primarily ate gelatinous zooplankton,

a food with lower energy content compared to the types eaten in

Sensitivity to temperature:

Known temperature of

occurrence or distribution as

a proxy for sensitivity to

temperature

Adult mobility: Determine

the ability of the stock to

move if their current location

becomes unsuitable

Dispersal of early life

stages: Estimate the ability

of the stock to colonize new

habitats

2000 and 2011 (Brodeur et al., 2019). Many of the species that

smelt eat are negatively impacted by ocean acidification.

High–Very High Sensitivity - While I couldn’t find information on

smelt temperature tolerances, they are only found in one ocean

province, as defined by the NOAA methodology. This makes

them have high – very high sensitivity to temperature changes.

Unknown – There are many populations of smelt in Washington

waters but not a lot is known about their movements. There isn’t

evidence that they travel long distances (WDFW, 2015).

Predicted impact of land

use changes resulting from

human responses:

Low - moderate –After hatching, smelt larvae drift around for a

few weeks. However, the amount of time they can drift will likely

shorten in warmer waters. During this larval stage, the fish

depend on energy reserves before they can forage for food.

Under lab conditions, these reserves get smaller as the water

gets warmer (Russell et al., 2022).

In urban areas, like the Puget Sound, shoreline armoring has

diminished smelt habitat, but that threat is less likely along the

coast of the Hoh U&A because there is less infrastructure

immediately adjacent to the coast (WDFW, n.d.). Other

adjustments to the beach, like removing vegetation or dumping

dredge material, could negatively harm the spawning grounds.

Additionally, ocean production of energy, whether it’s wind, tidal,

or wave, has the potential to affect smelt but there is not enough

research yet to know what the effect is.

Species

yz/l85mala / Razor clams / Siliqua patula

Factors that affect sensitivity:

Species range within the

U&A:

Razor clams live in sandy beaches along the Hoh U&A. Kalaloch

Beach is one traditional gathering spot.

Stock size/status: To

determine if the stock's

resilience is compromised

due to low abundance

Other stressors: Examples

include habitat degradation,

pollution levels, parasites,

harmful algal bloom

exposure, and invasive

species.

Unknown - Stocks around WA state fluctuate. I was not able to

find a BMSY number, which this assessment wants.

Nuclear Inclusion X (NIX): NIX is a bacteria that is associated

with razor clam die-off. The bacteria gets into the clam’s cells

and prevent their gills from working normally. While the cause of

the low population of small razor clams at Kalaloch isn’t entirely

known, NIX is one hypothesized culprit. NIX concentrations at

Kalaloch are 10 – 1,000 times higher than clams from other

sample locations (Goldfarb, 2023).

Microplastics: A study examining microplastics in razor clams

found that Kalaloch beach had the highest microplastic content

out of the clams they sampled along the Olympic Coast. These

can have potential negative effects on the clam’s bodily

processes, like respiration, reproduction and feeding. People

who eat clams can reduce the amount of microplastic they eat

by thoroughly cleaning the clams; cleaned clams in the study

had 50% fewer microplastics (Baechler et al., 2020).

Harmful algal blooms - Harmful algal blooms (HABs) produce

high levels of biotoxins. When razor clams eat phytoplankton

from a HAB, those toxins can accumulate in their bodies. While

this appears not to harm the clams themselves, if humans eat

the clams, they can experience a variety of negative symptoms

like memory loss, stroke-like symptoms, and even death

(WDFW, 2023).

Otters - People have observed rafts of otters coming over from

Destruction Island to eat the clams at Kalaloch. They

hypothesize that heavy otter predation is the reason for

suppressed clam populations at Kalaloch.

Population growth rate:

Estimate the productivity of a

stock

Complexity in reproductive

strategy: Identify

reproductive strategies that

may be disrupted by climate

change

Unknown – I couldn’t find information on razor clam population

growth rate.

Spawning cycle: Identify

spawning strategies that are

sensitive to changes

Moderate – In Washington, spawning only takes place in the late

spring or early summer when water temperature reaches a

certain threshold (Hiebert, 2015). Less frequent spawning events

make the species more vulnerable to climate change. However,

they are broadcast spawners which is a prolific strategy.

Moderate – Larval requirements are not well studied. It is

assumed that razor clams have similar development to other

bivalves. The embryonic phase of many bivalves, before they

become larvae, does depend on temperature (Alcantar et al.,

2023). If the same is true for razor clams, warming waters could

cause changes in development.

Very High – Razor clams are a bivalve mollusk. The NOAA

methodology uses a scientific paper (Kroeker et al., 2013) that

ranks the impacts of ocean acidification on different types of

Early life history survival

and settlement

requirements: Determine

the relative importance of

early life history

requirements for a stock

Sensitivity to ocean

acidification: Determine the

Low – Spawning initiation does depend on a specific

temperature threshold, around 13°C (Hiebert, 2015). The timing

of spawning has potential to shift as sea surface temperatures

rise. However, the rest of the razor clam reproductive strategy is

relatively simple, making it less vulnerable.

stock's relationship to

"sensitive taxa"

Habitat specificity:

Determine the relative

dependence a stock has on

habitat and the abundance

of the habitat

Prey specificity: Determine

if the stock is a prey

generalist or a prey specialist

Sensitivity to temperature:

Known temperature of

occurrence or distribution as

a proxy for sensitivity to

temperature

Adult mobility: Determine

the ability of the stock to

move if their current location

becomes unsuitable

Dispersal of early life

stages: Estimate the ability

of the stock to colonize new

habitats

Predicted impact of land

use changes resulting from

human responses:

marine species. Mollusks are highly vulnerable. Additionally,

razor clams were ranked as some of most vulnerable species in a

2018 assessment done by Olympic National Park (Jones et al.,

2018). Tribal members are noticing that the clam shells are

thinner which could be due to ocean acidification.

Low – Razor clams depend on flat, sandy beaches (Hiebert,

2015). While not all beaches in the Hoh U&A meet these criteria,

it is a common abiotic habitat.

Moderate – Razor clams are filter feeders, sucking in diatoms,

other algae, and phytoplankton. This is a large variety of food

sources, but these species are vulnerable to ocean acidification.

Very High - While I couldn’t find information on razor clam

temperature tolerances, they are only found in one ocean

province, as defined by the NOAA methodology, and they don’t

go to deep depths, as they live in the sand.

High – Adults have little mobility. They can move vertically,

digging into the sand. This is beneficial for changing surf

conditions. However, they cannot move laterally and cannot shift

into new habitat if theirs becomes degraded (The Oregon Climate

Change Research Institute, 2016).

Moderate – The larvae are free swimming for up to 8 weeks,

which is a decent amount of time for wide dispersal per the

NOAA methodology. They can disperse tens of kilometers

(McCaffery et al., 2018).

Low risk - Some of the razor clam habitat that is within the Hoh

U&A is also within Olympic National Park, protecting it from

development.

River and terrestrial species using NatureServe CCVI methodology

Universal Assessment Criteria for NatureServe species

Geographic Area Assessed:

Time period:

Emissions scenario:

Approximation of Hoh usual and accustomed area (U&A)

Near term: 2040 – 2069. This is the time period NatureServe

suggests using and what their resources use.

A1B. This is what the tool was built with. A1B represents a

world with rapid growth, the global population peaking

around 2050, and a balance between fossil fuel intensive

technologies and non-fossil fuel energy sources (IPCC,

2000). It has carbon emissions at 600 ppmv by 2100 (IPCC,

n.d.). RCP 6.0 is a similar representative pathway used today

(UW Climate Impacts Group, 2013). Both are middle-of-theroad estimates.

Temperature Severity:

Hamon AET:PET Moisture

Metric:

Rankings: These are the options

to rank how each aspect

increases vulnerability

Annual temperature within the Hoh U&A is predicted to rise

between 3.4 - 3.7°F from 2040-2069 under emissions A1B

(Young et al., 2016).

The moisture metric for the Hoh U&A is all between –0.096 -0.074 (Young et al., 2016). NatureServe uses this metric, as

opposed to estimates of precipitation, because moisture

availability is more relevant to a plant or animal’s ability to

survive (GLIFWC Climate Change Team, 2023).

• GI = Greatly increase

• I = Increase

• SI = Somewhat increase

• N = Neutral

• U = Unknown

Species

n85ki7 / Roosevelt Elk / Cervus canadensis roosevelti

Score

Less Vulnerable

Species range within the

U&A:

Migratory exposure:

Exposure to sea level

rise:

Throughout the entire U&A

Natural barriers:

Anthropogenic barriers:

Predicted impact of land

use changes resulting

from human responses:

Not applicable – Roosevelt elk aren’t neotropical, migratory species

Neutral – Although sea level rise is expected along the Hoh U&A

coastline, it is a tiny part of the elk’s range and not where they

spend most of their time.

Neutral – Somewhat increase - Elk may be slightly impaired by

natural barriers if they attempt to shift their habitat range. Elk are

highly mobile, with some already moving around the Olympic

Peninsula from lowland areas to over the Olympic Mountains as

they see fit (McCaffery et al., 2018). Moving off the peninsula may

be difficult due to the Strait of Juan de Fuca in the north and

significant urban development to the east. However, it’s also a

possibility that elk living in northern CA and OR could move

northward into the Hoh U&A. The NatureServe index allows for

multiple values, so this was ranked both N & SI to account for the

range of possibilities.

Neutral - There are currently no large anthropogenic barriers to this

species. Examples are dams for fish, impenetrable fencing, and

large urban areas. The urban area east of the peninsula is

mentioned in the ranking above.

Neutral - This category is about land actions taken to mitigate

climate change, like wind farms and solar arrays. A fair amount of

elk habitat is already protected by being in Olympic National Park

and the remaining land is not currently desirable for other

technologies, like solar farms.

Dispersal and

movements:

Historical thermal niche:

Physiological thermal

niche:

Historical hydrological

niche:

Physiological

hydrological niche:

Dependence on a

specific disturbance

regime likely to be

impacted by climate

change:

Dependence on ice, iceedge, or snow cover

habitats:

Restriction to

uncommon geological

features or derivatives:

Dependence on other

species to generate

habitat:

Dietary versatility

(animals only):

Dependence on other

species for propagule

dispersal:

Sensitivity to pathogens

or natural enemies:

Neutral - Elk are highly mobile.

Increase – Nearly half of their range sees annual temperature

variations between 18 - 37°F, while the other half, which includes

more of the river valleys, sees swings of 37-47°F. Compared to

much of the rest of the United States, this a mild climate with a

small thermal niche which makes these elk more vulnerable.

Neutral - Elk are not restricted to any cool or cold environments,

like frost pockets, north-facing slopes, or the highest elevation

zones. Additionally, they can move to find cool areas that meet

their needs.

Neutral - Elk experience high levels of rain variation. As calculated

by the NatureServe data, elk can experience precipitation variation

of >20 in in different parts of the Hoh U&A.

Neutral - Because they are so mobile, elk can move to find the wet

areas they need. While they need water, they don’t depend on a

specific wetland habitat that is highly vulnerable to loss.

Neutral - Fire could have a mixed effect on elk populations. They

like to stay near areas with trees and cover so if an extreme fire

eliminated trees, elk would be negatively impacted. However, if the

fire cleared out underbrush and forage plants increased

afterwards, elk could be positively affected (McCaffery et al., 2018,

Jenkins & Starkey, 1984). It would also depend on how much of

their range was burned. Because they are so mobile, they could

travel to an unaffected area.

Neutral - While some elk in the Hoh U&A follow snow melt to find

spring plants, many remain in snow free habitat throughout the

year.

Neutral - Elk are not restricted to a particular geological or

landscape feature.

Neutral - Elk habitat requirements do not have species-specific

processes, like relying on a burrow created by another animal.

Neutral - Elk eat a variety of grasses, sedges, ferns, trees, and other

plants depending on the season. Their diet is not highly specific.

Neutral - Elk do not depend on any other species for reproduction

or offspring movement.

Unknown – One of the current pathogens most destructive to elk is

Treponema-Associated Hoof Disease, also known as hoof disease.

Highly infectious, it causes elk to have deformed hooves, which

then affects their ability to walk, and they die at higher rates than

healthy elk. Interviewees said they hadn’t seen any hoof disease in

the U&A and WDFW reports only 3 sightings in the U&A since 2012

(WDFW, 2024). Chronic wasting disease is also a threat to elk.

Tribal members have also not seen this affecting elk in the U&A yet.

Sensitivity to

competition from native

or non-native species:

Forms part of an

interspecific interaction

not covered by C4a-f:

Measured genetic

variation:

Occurrence of

bottlenecks in recent

evolutionary history:

Phenological response to

changing seasonal

temperature or

precipitation dynamics:

Documented response to

recent climate change:

Modeled future (2050)

change in range or

population size:

Overlap of modeled

future (2050) range with

current range:

Occurrence of protected

areas in modeled future

(2050) distribution:

Species

Score

Additionally, wolves are one of the main predators of elk, aside

from humans. Wolves have been extirpated from the Olympic

Peninsula.

Neutral - Elk are not highly sensitive to competitors. They do share

habitats with other herbivores, like deer, but it is unlikely that deer

will be so positively affected by climate

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