Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan Update (2024)
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Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan Update
December 2024
Prepared for:
DRAFT
Cher-Ae Heights Indian Community of the Trinidad Rancheria
1 Cher –Ae Lane
Trinidad, CA 95570
(707) 677 – 0211
Prepared by:
Wise Oak Consulting, L.L.C.SM
9815 J Sam Furr Road, #223, Huntersville, NC 28078
Tel: 704-572-7333 www.WiseOakConsulting.us
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 1
A.
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................1
B.
What is Hazard Mitigation? ..............................................................................................................................2
C.
Why Develop This Plan? ...................................................................................................................................3
D.
Federal Emergency Management Agency Guidance ......................................................................................5
1.
Code of Federal Regulations, Title 44 .............................................................................................................5
2.
E.
Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 ......................................................................................................................5
Organization .......................................................................................................................................................6
1.
2.
Section I – The Planning Process ....................................................................................................................7
Section II – Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment.................................................................................7
3.
Section III – Mitigation Strategy .....................................................................................................................9
4.
5.
Section IV – Plan Updates............................................................................................................................. 10
Section V – Assurance and Plan Adoption .................................................................................................... 10
6.
Section VI – Appendices ............................................................................................................................... 10
F.
Summary ........................................................................................................................................................... 11
I.
THE PLANNING PROCESS ............................................................................................ 12
A.
Plan Development Schedule and Planning Team .......................................................................................... 13
B.
How the plan was prepared and who was involved....................................................................................... 16
The Planning Team ................................................................................................................................................. 20
C.
Public Partnership ........................................................................................................................................... 21
1.
2.
The Public ..................................................................................................................................................... 21
Public Involvement ....................................................................................................................................... 22
3.
4.
Incorporation of Public Feedback ................................................................................................................. 24
Involving Neighboring Communities, Tribal, and Regional Agencies ......................................................... 27
D.
Integration with Other Trinidad Rancheria Planning Efforts ..................................................................... 28
E.
Method and Schedule for Keeping the Plan Current: How, When, and Who will Evaluate the Plan ..... 30
1.
How, When, and Who will Monitor the Plan ................................................................................................ 30
2.
How, When, and Who will Evaluate the Plan ............................................................................................... 31
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3.
How, When, and Who will Update the Plan.................................................................................................. 31
F.
Continued Public Participation....................................................................................................................... 32
II.
HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...................................... 34
A.
The Planning Area ........................................................................................................................................... 35
1.
About the Cher-Ae Heights Indian Community of the Trinidad Rancheria (Trinidad Rancheria)................ 36
2.
3.
Topography ................................................................................................................................................... 44
Geology ......................................................................................................................................................... 44
4.
5.
Soil ................................................................................................................................................................ 46
Climate .......................................................................................................................................................... 47
6.
Population/Demographics ............................................................................................................................. 48
7.
8.
Economy ....................................................................................................................................................... 48
Industry ......................................................................................................................................................... 49
9.
10.
Critical Facilities & Infrastructure................................................................................................................. 52
Identifying Future Structures .................................................................................................................... 55
B.
Identified Hazards of Concern ........................................................................................................................ 56
1.
2.
Hazard Selection ........................................................................................................................................... 56
Risk Assessment Factors ............................................................................................................................... 72
1.
Natural Hazard Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 76
Climate Change ............................................................................................................................................. 79
2.
3.
Coastal Erosion ............................................................................................................................................. 89
Drought ......................................................................................................................................................... 97
4.
Earthquake ................................................................................................................................................... 107
5.
6.
Epidemic ..................................................................................................................................................... 118
Flood ........................................................................................................................................................... 125
7.
8.
Land Animal Disease .................................................................................................................................. 134
Landslide ..................................................................................................................................................... 138
9.
10.
Marine Animal Disease ............................................................................................................................... 150
Sea Level Rise ........................................................................................................................................ 154
11.
Severe Winter Weather ........................................................................................................................... 162
12.
13.
Smoke ..................................................................................................................................................... 169
Tsunami .................................................................................................................................................. 174
14.
Wildland Fire .......................................................................................................................................... 188
C.
D.
Technological Hazard Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 200
1.
2.
Power Failure .............................................................................................................................................. 201
HAZMAT Release - Marine........................................................................................................................ 206
3.
Structure Fire ............................................................................................................................................... 209
4.
5.
Transportation Accident .............................................................................................................................. 212
HAZMAT Release - Land ........................................................................................................................... 215
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E.
Human-Caused Threat Analysis ................................................................................................................... 219
1.
2.
Armed Assault ............................................................................................................................................. 220
Cyberattack - Data ....................................................................................................................................... 224
3.
4.
Cyberattack - Infrastructure......................................................................................................................... 226
Sabotage ...................................................................................................................................................... 227
5.
Biological Attack......................................................................................................................................... 230
III.
MITIGATION STRATEGY ........................................................................................ 234
A.
Hazard Management Policies, Programs, and Capabilities ....................................................................... 236
1.
Planning and Regulatory Capabilities ......................................................................................................... 237
2.
B.
Administrative and Technical Capabilities.................................................................................................. 241
Financial Capabilities .................................................................................................................................... 245
1.
Financial Capability Overview .................................................................................................................... 245
2.
3.
FEMA-Funded Hazard Mitigation Efforts .................................................................................................. 247
Non-FEMA Funding Sources ...................................................................................................................... 251
4.
Potential Funding Sources ........................................................................................................................... 252
C.
Education and Outreach Capabilities .......................................................................................................... 254
D.
NFIP Compliance ........................................................................................................................................... 255
E.
Capability Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 255
F.
Goals and Objectives ..................................................................................................................................... 257
1.
2.
Goal #1: Protect Lives and Property ........................................................................................................... 264
Goal #2: Promote Sustainable Living .......................................................................................................... 267
3.
Goal #3: Increase Public Awareness of Local Hazards ............................................................................... 268
4.
5.
Goal #4: Enhance Partnerships and Implementation ................................................................................... 269
Goal #5: Strengthen Emergency Services Capability .................................................................................. 270
Actions with an emphasis on new and existing buildings and infrastructure........................................................ 270
G.
Action Plan: .................................................................................................................................................... 272
1.
2.
H.
Action Plan Assessment .............................................................................................................................. 273
Action Plan Implementation ........................................................................................................................ 278
Incorporation of the Hazard Mitigation Plan Into Other Planning Mechanisms .................................... 289
1.
2.
Trinidad Rancheria Comprehensive Community-Based Plan ..................................................................... 290
Transportation and Land Use Management Department ............................................................................. 292
3.
4.
Environmental Department ......................................................................................................................... 292
Tribal Administration and Tribal Programs ................................................................................................ 292
5.
6.
Casino, Restaurant, and Harbor Enterprises ................................................................................................ 293
Goal #2: Promote Sustainable Living .......................................................................................................... 293
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7.
Continued Member and Stakeholder Outreach/Involvement ...................................................................... 296
8.
Integration with the National Preparedness System .................................................................................... 296
I.
Progress Review ............................................................................................................................................. 298
IV.
PLAN UPDATES .......................................................................................................... 301
A.
Changes in Development ............................................................................................................................... 301
B.
Progress in Tribal Mitigation Efforts ........................................................................................................... 303
C.
Plan Revision Reflecting Changing Priorities.............................................................................................. 307
1.
2.
Legacy Goals ............................................................................................................................................... 307
New Goals ................................................................................................................................................... 307
V.
ASSURANCES AND PLAN ADOPTION ...................................................................... 309
A.
Assurance of Federal Guidance Compliance and Required Amendments ............................................... 309
B.
Adoption by Trinidad Rancheria.................................................................................................................. 309
APPENDIX A: MULTI-HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN ADOPTION ............................ 310
APPENDIX B: TRINIDAD RANCHERIA RISK SURVEY ................................................ 311
APPENDIX C: INTERVIEW WORKSHEETS .................................................................... 326
APPENDIX D: OUTREACH AGENDAS .............................................................................. 328
APPENDIX E: MITIGATION ACTION WORKSHEET AND PROGRESS REPORT .. 330
APPENDIX F: FEMA TRIBAL MITIGATION PLAN REVIEW GUIDE........................ 332
APPENDIX G: BIBLIOGRAPHY .......................................................................................... 340
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Figures
Figure 1. FEMA’s Seven-Step Tribal Hazard Mitigation Plan Development Process. ................ 12
Figure 2. Risk Survey Participants................................................................................................ 23
Figure 3. Risk Survey Participants’ Experience with Access and Functional Needs. .................. 23
Figure 4. National Preparedness System and Representative Actions. ........................................ 29
Figure 5. Trinidad Rancheria Planning Area. .............................................................................. 34
Figure 6. Trinidad Rancheria Main and Westhaven Parcels......................................................... 38
Figure 7. McKinleyville Parcel. .................................................................................................... 40
Figure 8. Trinidad Harbor. ............................................................................................................ 42
Figure 9. Indigenous Marine Stewardship Area. .......................................................................... 43
Figure 10. Geology. ...................................................................................................................... 45
Figure 11. Soils. ............................................................................................................................ 46
Figure 12. Monthly Climate Normals – Eureka, CA. ................................................................... 47
Figure 13. Trinidad Rancheria Critical Infrastructure. ................................................................. 52
Figure 14. CDC Social Vulnerability Index (2022): Overall SVI. .............................................. 62
Figure 15. CDC Social Vulnerability Index (2022): Socioeconomic. ......................................... 63
Figure 16. CDC Social Vulnerability Index (2022): Household Composition / Disability Theme.
....................................................................................................................................................... 64
Figure 17. CDC Social Vulnerability Index (2022): Household Minority / Language Theme. .. 65
Figure 18. CDC Social Vulnerability Index (2022): Housing / Transportation Theme. ............. 66
Figure 19. Humboldt County Presidential Disaster Declarations by Type. ................................. 67
Figure 20. Humboldt County Presidential Disaster Declarations by Month. .............................. 68
Figure 21. Trinidad Rancheria - Level IV Coastal Lowlands Ecoregion. ................................... 81
Figure 22. Comparison of Projected Temperature Rise for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. (University of
California Merced, 2024) .............................................................................................................. 82
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Figure 23. U.S. EPA Climate Indicator for Precipitation. ........................................................... 83
Figure 24. Comparison Projected Summer Precipitation Decrease for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5.
(University of California Merced, 2024) ...................................................................................... 84
Figure 25. Projected Vegetation Change for RCP 4.5. (University of California Merced, 2024)85
Figure 26. U.S. EPA Climate Indicator for Wildfire. .................................................................. 86
Figure 27. Pacific Institute Sea Level Rise Hazard Map. ............................................................. 90
Figure 28. Coastal Erosion Encroaching on the Trinidad Head Access Road.............................. 91
Figure 29. Erosion on Trinidad Head Access Road Next to Seascape House. ............................. 93
Figure 30. Erosion Below Seascape House (Trinidad Head Access Road to left). ..................... 93
Figure 31. Erosion on Ocean Side of Heights Casino. ................................................................. 94
Figure 32. Erosion/slide on Cher-Ae Lane. .................................................................................. 94
Figure 33. Scenic Drive Shoulder Erosion. .................................................................................. 94
Figure 33. Scenic Drive General Erosion. .................................................................................... 95
Figure 35. Scenic Drive Pavement Erosion. ................................................................................. 95
Figure 36. Monthly Climate Normals – Eureka, CA. ................................................................... 97
Figure 37. Types of Data the U.S. Drought Monitor Uses in its Analysis. (U.S. Drought
Monitor, 2024) .............................................................................................................................. 98
Figure 38. Snowpack and Reservoir Storage in Northern California Reservoirs. (UC San Diego:
Scripts Institution of Oceanography, 2024) .................................................................................. 99
Figure 39. U.S. Drought Monitor Current Conditions as of November 7, 2024. (U.S. Drought
Monitor, 2024) ............................................................................................................................ 100
Figure 40. U.S. Drought Monitor Seasonal Outlook as of October 31, 2024. (U.S. Drought
Monitor, 2024) ............................................................................................................................ 100
Figure 41. Drought National Risk Index Score. ......................................................................... 101
Figure 42. Three Main Types of Faults. (Geology Page 2017) ................................................. 107
Figure 43. Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale. (Society, 2024) ................................................. 108
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Figure 44. Cascadia Subduction Zone ShakeMap. ..................................................................... 109
Figure 45. Earthquake National Risk Index Score...................................................................... 110
Figure 46. Mad River Fault Zone. .............................................................................................. 111
Figure 47. Fault Activity Map. (California Department of Conservation, 2024) ....................... 113
Figure 48. Earthquakes Near Trinidad Greater than M 5.0, 1769-2015. .................................... 114
Figure 49. Cape Mendocino Earthquake ShakeMap. ................................................................. 115
Figure 50. Earthquake Recurrence Probability Map of Humboldt County. ............................... 116
Figure 51. 1918 Spanish Flu Deaths. (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2018)...... 121
Figure 52. Flood National Risk Index Score. ............................................................................. 126
Figure 53. FEMA Flood Hazard. ................................................................................................ 127
Figure 54. Trinidad Rancheria Storm Water Catchments. (Pacific Watershed Associates) ....... 128
Figure 55. Typical Culvert. ......................................................................................................... 129
Figure 57. Flood-Prone section of Archer Road. ........................................................................ 129
Figure 59. Rainwater runoff at Trinidad Harbor. (Mad River Union, n.d.) ................................ 130
Figure 60. Reportable Conditions for Animals and Animal Products. ....................................... 135
Figure 61. Types of Flows. ........................................................................................................ 139
Figure 62. Rockfalls and Topples. ............................................................................................. 140
Figure 63. Landslide Susceptibility. ........................................................................................... 141
Figure 64. Landslide Susceptibility Classes. .............................................................................. 142
Figure 65. Trinidad Rancheria Landslide-Subsidence Area Map. .............................................. 144
Figure 66. Scenic Drive Road Failures. ...................................................................................... 145
Figure 67. Responsibility for Scenic Drive Maintenance. .......................................................... 147
Figure 68. Trinidad Rancheria Indigenous Marine Stewardship Area (IMSA).......................... 151
Figure 69. Sea Level Rise Mid-Century and End of Century Comparison. ............................... 155
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Figure 70. Two-Foot Sea Level Rise Confidence. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration 2024) .................................................................................................................. 156
Figure 71. Five-Foot Sea Level Rise Confidence. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration 2024) .................................................................................................................. 157
Figure 72. Probability of Sea Level Rise for an Intermediate-High Greenhouse Gas Scenario. 159
Figure 73. Pacific Institute Sea Level Rise Hazard Map for a High Greenhouse Gas Emission
Scenario....................................................................................................................................... 160
Figure 74. NOAA Satellite Photograph of a Pineapple Express, January 31, 2024. .................. 163
Figure 75. Tree Down at The Heights Casino, March 2, 2024. .................................................. 163
Figure 76. Humboldt County Presidential Disaster Declarations by Month. ............................ 164
Figure 77. Wildfire Smoke August 20, 2020. ............................................................................. 169
Figure 78. Wildfire Smoke. ........................................................................................................ 170
Figure 79. Air Quality Index....................................................................................................... 171
Figure 80. Smoke-Filled Sky in Eureka, CA, 9:30 A.M., September 9, 2020. (North Coast
Journal of Politics, People & Art, 2020) ..................................................................................... 172
Figure 81. Comparable Speed of Tsunami Propagation Based on Water Depth. (Washington
State Department of Natural Resources, 2024)........................................................................... 174
Figure 82. Wind Wave vs. a Tsunami Wave. (Washington State Department of Natural
Resources, 2024) ......................................................................................................................... 175
Figure 83. Tsunami Generation Sources. (Washington State Department of Natural Resources
2024) ........................................................................................................................................... 176
Figure 84. California Sources of Earthquakes and Relative Frequencies. (Washington State
Department of Natural Resources, 2024).................................................................................... 178
Figure 85. Before a Subduction Zone Earthquake. (Washington State Department of Natural
Resources 2024) .......................................................................................................................... 179
Figure 86. During a Subduction Zone Earthquake. (Washington State Department of Natural
Resources 2024) .......................................................................................................................... 179
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Figure 87. After a Subduction Zone Earthquake. (Washington State Department of Natural
Resources 2024) .......................................................................................................................... 180
Figure 88. Cascadia Subduction Zone. ....................................................................................... 181
Figure 89. Tsunami Hazard Area. ............................................................................................... 185
Figure 90. Wildfire National Risk Index Score. ......................................................................... 189
Figure 91. Wildfire Risk to Communities Burn Probability. ...................................................... 192
Figure 92. Humboldt County Fire Hazard Safety Zones. ........................................................... 193
Figure 93. Wildfire Historic Perimeters...................................................................................... 195
Figure 94. Wildfire Historic Incidents 2014 - Present. ............................................................... 196
Figure 95. Wildfire Risk to Communities Burn Probability. ...................................................... 198
Figure 96. U.S. EPA Climate Indicator for Wildfire. ................................................................ 199
Figure 97. California Public Utilities Commission Fire Threat Map. ........................................ 202
Figure 98. Cal EPA Regulated Sites in the Planning Area. ........................................................ 215
Figure 99. Cal EPA Regulated Sites in Northern Rancheria Parcels. ......................................... 216
Figure 100. Cal EPA Regulated Sites in Trinidad Harbor. ......................................................... 216
Figure 101. Active Shooter Incidents 2019-2023. (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2024)...... 220
Figure 102. Active Shooter Incidents 2019-2023 Casualties. (Federal Bureau of Investigation,
2024) ........................................................................................................................................... 221
Figure 103. Active Shooter Incidents 2019-2023 Casualties. (Federal Bureau of Investigation,
2024) ........................................................................................................................................... 221
Figure 104. “The FEMA Mitigation Strategy: Goals, Actions, Action Plan.” (Federal Emergency
Management Agency 2013) ........................................................................................................ 234
Figure 103. National Preparedness System. ............................................................................... 297
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Tables
Table 1. FEMA Assistance Programs and Mitigation Plan Requirements. .................................... 3
Table 2. Threats and Hazards of Concern. ...................................................................................... 8
Table 3. Planning Team Members. ............................................................................................... 20
Table 4. Public Outreach Partner Categories. ............................................................................... 22
Table 5: Threat and Hazard Scoring Methodology....................................................................... 24
Table 6. Natural Hazards of Greatest Concern. ............................................................................ 25
Table 7: Trinidad Rancheria’s Technological Hazards of Greatest Concern. .............................. 26
Table 8: Trinidad Rancheria’s Human-Caused Threats of Greatest Concern. ............................. 26
Table 9. Plan Monitoring, Evaluating, and Updating Schedule. .................................................. 31
Table 10. Public Participation Objectives and Actions. ............................................................... 32
Table 11. Partnerships and Implementation Objectives and Actions. .......................................... 33
Table 12. Economic Impact of Trinidad Rancheria Government and Enterprises. ...................... 48
Table 13. Trinidad Rancheria Critical Infrastructure. ................................................................... 54
Table 14. Trinidad Rancheria Homes. .......................................................................................... 54
Table 15. Humboldt County Presidential Disaster Declarations & FEMA Financial Assistance. 68
Table 16: Threat and Hazard Scoring Methodology..................................................................... 74
Table 17. Natural Hazards of Greatest Concern. .......................................................................... 74
Table 18: Trinidad Rancheria’s Technological Hazards of Greatest Concern. ............................ 75
Table 19: Trinidad Rancheria’s Human-Caused Threats of Greatest Concern. ........................... 75
Table 20. U.S. Department of Agriculture Drought Declarations in Humboldt County. ........... 103
Table 21. Impacts of Climate Change to Drought. ..................................................................... 106
Table 22. Significant Outbreaks of Influenza over the Past Century. ........................................ 120
Table 23. Flood Presidential Disaster Declarations in Humboldt County. ................................. 130
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Table 24. Humboldt County Severe Storm and Flood Presidential Disaster Declarations. ....... 165
Table 25. Types of Tsunami Risk. .............................................................................................. 177
Table 26. Tsunamis That Have Affected the North Coast of California. ................................... 182
Table 27. Ten (10) Largest Wildfires in the State of California. ................................................ 190
Table 28: Trinidad Rancheria’s Technological Hazards of Greatest Concern. .......................... 200
Table 29: Trinidad Rancheria’s Human-Caused Threats of Greatest Concern. ......................... 219
Table 30. Onset, Health Impacts, and Treatments for Biological Agents of Concern. .............. 231
Table 31. Planning Capabilities. ................................................................................................. 237
Table 32. Building Code Capabilities. ........................................................................................ 239
Table 33. Land Use Regulation Capabilities. ............................................................................. 240
Table 34. Administrative Capabilities. ....................................................................................... 241
Table 35. Staff Capabilities......................................................................................................... 242
Table 36. Technical Capabilities................................................................................................. 243
Table 37. Financial Capabilities. ................................................................................................ 245
Table 38. Tribal Mitigation Grant Applications. ........................................................................ 247
Table 39. Education and Outreach Capabilities.......................................................................... 254
Table 40. Summary of Natural Hazards Addressed by Each Actions. ....................................... 259
Table 41. Action Plan Assessment Criteria. ............................................................................... 273
Table 42. Tribal Plans and Regulations Actions. ........................................................................ 274
Table 43. Structure and Infrastructure Actions. .......................................................................... 274
Table 44. Natural Systems Protection Actions. .......................................................................... 276
Table 46. Departmental Hazard Mitigation Responsibilities...................................................... 278
Table 47. Trinidad Rancheria Action Implementation Plan. ...................................................... 283
Table 48. Significant Actions that Integrate with the TRMHMP. .............................................. 290
Table 49. Actions Integrated Into Other Planning Mechanisms. ............................................... 294
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Table 50. Plan Monitoring, Evaluating, and Updating Schedule. .............................................. 299
Table 51. Roles and Responsibilities for Hazard Mitigation Action Implementation. ............... 299
Table 52. Status of Previously Identified Mitigation Actions. ................................................... 303
Table 53. Trinidad Rancheria MHMP Adoption. ....................................................................... 309
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
“Hazard mitigation planning reduces loss of life and property by minimizing the impact of
disasters. It begins with state, Tribal and local governments identifying natural disaster risks
and vulnerabilities that are common in their area. After identifying these risks, they develop
long-term strategies for protecting people and property from similar events. Mitigation plans are
key to breaking the cycle of disaster damage and reconstruction." (Federal Emergency
Management Agency, 2024)
A.
Introduction
The Cher-Ae Heights Indian Community of the Trinidad Rancheria (Trinidad Rancheria / Tribe)
has developed this plan to protect lives, property, cultural resources, and the environment, as
well as support tribal sovereignty. Trinidad Rancheria feels strongly about completing mitigation
actions, including education, to help the tribal community be more prepared and better able to
assist themselves. In addition, Trinidad Rancheria has developed specific actions to also
cooperate with the surrounding local community in each other’s mitigation, response, and
recovery efforts. Trinidad Rancheria is committed to creating a stable, secure, and resilient
environment capable of addressing a variety of natural and man-made hazards. Of note in 2019,
the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) reported that the benefit cost ratio for natural
hazard mitigation is as follows:
•
11:1 overall, nationwide
•
6:1 for riverine flooding
•
10:1 for wind
•
12:1 for earthquake (National Institute of Building Sciences, 2019)
In other words, every $1 spent on hazard mitigation saves $6-$12 in damages. Therefore, in
addition to protecting lives, property, cultural resources, and the environment, there is a strong
economic case for taking pre-disaster mitigation measures.
All Trinidad Rancheria members, departments, enterprises, and community partners will benefit
from this update to the Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan (TRMHMP). Tribal
leadership, departments, enterprises, and Tribal members all play a vital role in disaster
preparedness, response, and recovery. Therefore, it is necessary to have a plan that strategically
outlines the steps necessary to reduce the risk from any natural hazard. It is also important for the
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Executive Summary
Tribe to increase its capacity to respond to natural disasters in a way that is well planned and
organized.
B.
What is Hazard Mitigation?
The first step to understanding the Trinidad Rancheria’s Hazard Mitigation Plan is to understand
what hazard mitigation is. Hazard mitigation is any action taken to reduce or eliminate the longterm risk to human life and property from human-caused or natural hazards. A hazard is any
event or condition with the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property/infrastructure damage,
agricultural loss, environmental damage, business interruption, or other structural and financial
loss. As communities grow, hazard mitigation will play an even more important role in the
government’s primary objective of protecting its citizens’ health, safety, and welfare.
Hazard mitigation aims to make human development and the natural environment safer and more
resilient. Hazard mitigation generally involves altering the built environment to significantly
reduce risks and vulnerability to hazards so that life and property losses can be avoided or
reduced. Mitigation can also include removing the built environment from disaster prone areas
and maintaining natural mitigating features such as wetlands or floodplains. Hazard mitigation
makes it easier and less expensive to respond to and recover from disasters by breaking the
damage and repair cycle.
Examples of hazard mitigation measures include, but are not limited to the following:
● Development of mitigation standards, regulations, policies, and programs
● Land use/zoning policies
● Adherence to strong statewide building code and floodplain management regulations
● Slope stabilization, seawalls, and levee systems
● Acquisition of flood prone and environmentally sensitive lands
● Retrofitting/hardening/elevating structures and critical facilities
● Relocation of structures, infrastructure, and facilities out of vulnerable areas
● Public awareness/education campaigns
● Improvement of warning and evacuation systems
Benefits of hazard mitigation include:
● Saving lives and protecting public health
● Preventing or minimizing property damage
● Minimizing social dislocation and stress
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Executive Summary
● Reducing economic losses
● Protecting and preserving infrastructure
● Less expenditures on response and recovery efforts
C.
Why Develop This Plan?
The future and sovereignty of the Trinidad Rancheria is strengthened when the Tribe adapts to
climate change, becomes more resilient to disasters, and mitigates the effects of both. Disasters
are becoming increasingly devastating and costly over time. As damage and the associated costs
from disasters continue to increase, Trinidad Rancheria realizes the importance of identifying
effective ways to reduce its vulnerability to disasters. The hazard mitigation plan assists Trinidad
Rancheria in reducing risks from hazards by focusing on the effects of the most significant
hazards and threats, identifying Tribal vulnerabilities and resources, sharing information, and
developing strategies for risk reduction. The plan also helps to guide and coordinate mitigation
activities throughout the Trinidad Rancheria. This plan provides a set of action items to reduce
risk from hazards through education and outreach programs and to foster the development of
partnerships and implementation of preventative activities, such as land use programs that
control development in areas subject to damage from hazards.
An important aspect of sovereignty is ensuring and preserving the option of autonomous
prevention, protection, mitigation, response, and recovery activities. Jurisdictions that desire to
be direct applicants/recipients (vice sub-applicants) of mitigation grants are required to have a
current hazard mitigation plan. In addition, jurisdictions requesting the full complement of
Federal aid during disaster recovery must have a current, FEMA-approved hazard mitigation
plan (Table 1).
Table 1. FEMA Assistance Programs and Mitigation Plan Requirements.
FEMA Assistance Program
Individual Assistance (IA)
Public Assistance (PA)
Categories A and B (e.g., debris removal, emergency
protective measures)
Public Assistance (PA)
Categories C through G (e.g., repairs to damaged
infrastructure, publicly owned buildings)
Fire Mitigation Assistance Grants (FMAG)
Hazard Mitigation Grant Program Post Fire
Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) planning grant
Required for
a State/Tribal
Applicant?
No
No
Required for a
Tribal/Local
SubApplicant?
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes+
No
Yes
No
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Executive Summary
Table 1. FEMA Assistance Programs and Mitigation Plan Requirements.
FEMA Assistance Program
+
Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) project grant
Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities
(BRIC) planning grant
Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities
(BRIC) project grant
Safeguarding Tomorrow Revolving Loan Fund Program
Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) planning grant
Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) project grant
Required for
a State/Tribal
Applicant?
Yes+
Yes*
Required for a
Tribal/Local
SubApplicant?
Yes++
No
Yes*
Yes**
Yes
Yes*
Yes*
Yes
No
Yes**
At the time of the Presidential major disaster declaration and at the time of obligation of
HMGP grant funds.
++
At the time of obligation of HMGP grant funds for mitigation projects.
*
By the application deadline and at the time of obligation of the BRIC or FMA award.
**
By the application deadline and at the time of obligation of BRIC or FMA grant funds for
mitigation projects.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Executive Summary
D.
Federal Emergency Management Agency Guidance
1.
Code of Federal Regulations, Title 44
Trinidad Rancheria is updating its multi-hazard mitigation plan in compliance with the Code of
Federal Regulations, Title 44, Chapter 1, Subchapter D, Part 201, Section 201.7 (44 CFR
§201.7), which defines Tribal mitigation plan requirements. Title 44, Chapter 1, Part 201 (44
CFR Part 201) of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) contains requirements and procedures
to implement the hazard mitigation planning provisions of the Stafford Act. Title 44 CFR Part
201 directs state, local, and American Indian Tribal governments to identify the natural hazards
that impact them, to identify actions and activities to reduce any losses from those hazards, and
to establish a coordinated process to implement the plan, taking advantage of a wide range of
resources. Tribal mitigation planning requirements were specifically created under 44 CFR
§201.7 to give Tribes more flexibility and the ability to meet the eligibility requirements of a
grantee or subgrantee for Federal Emergency Managements Agency (FEMA) Hazard Mitigation
Assistance programs. The 44 CFR §201.7 requirements are derived from the Disaster Mitigation
Act of 2000 (Public Law 106-390), which amends the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and
Emergency Assistance Act (Stafford Act), which seeks:
“…to reduce the loss of life and property, human suffering, economic disruption, and disaster
assistance costs resulting from natural disasters.”
2.
Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000
The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA2K), commonly known as the 2000 Stafford Act
Amendments, was approved by Congress on October 10, 2000. Section 322 is the DMA2K
amendment to the Stafford Act that primarily deals with hazard mitigation planning as it relates
to the development of local hazard mitigation plans. The DMA2K legislation was signed into
law on October 30, 2000. Hazard mitigation planning requirements for Tribes wishing to
participate as grantees under the public assistance and hazard mitigation programs are
implemented in the Interim Final Rule at 44 CFR Part 201.7.
The overall purpose of DMA2K is to establish a national program for pre-disaster mitigation,
streamline administration of disaster relief at both the federal and state levels, and control federal
costs of disaster assistance. Congress envisioned that implementation of these new requirements
would result in the following key benefits:
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Executive Summary
● Reduction of loss of life and property, human suffering, economic disruption, and
disaster costs.
● Prioritization of hazard mitigation planning at the local level, with an increased emphasis
placed on planning and public involvement, assessing risks, implementing loss reduction
measures, and ensuring critical services/facilities survive a disaster.
● Establishment of economic incentives, awareness and education via federal support to
state, Tribal, and local governments, that will result in forming community-based
partnerships, implementing effective hazard mitigation measures, leveraging additional
non-Federal resources, and establishing commitments to long-term hazard mitigation
efforts.
In general, the DMA2K legislation requires all local, county, and Tribal governments to develop
a hazard mitigation plan for their respective communities in order to be eligible to receive certain
types of non-emergency disaster assistance. Approval and adoption of this plan will also satisfy
the requirements of the Flood Mitigation Assistance Program (FMA) (Table 1).
By satisfying these requirements, Trinidad Rancheria not only fulfills federal regulations but also
strengthens its capacity to protect lives, property, and community assets from natural and humancaused disasters. 
E.
Organization
This TRMHMP update has significant changes from the previous version. Most notably, it is
organized in sections around FEMA’s five required hazard mitigation planning elements:
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
Element A – Planning Process
Element B – Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Element C – Mitigation Strategy
Element D – Plan Updates
Element E – Assurances and Plan Adoption
Appendices
While all the elements are essential, the most important element is the mitigation strategy
because it contains the actions that Trinidad Rancheria will take to lessen the impacts of
disasters.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Executive Summary
1.
Section I – The Planning Process
As described in the executive summary above, Trinidad Rancheria has developed this TRMHMP
update to protect people, property, cultural resources, and the environment by lessening the
impacts of disasters. In creating this update, Trinidad Rancheria took a whole community
approach to maximize the input from its leadership, staff, Tribal members, non-member residents
and workers, surrounding jurisdictions and citizens, the State of California, the Federal
government, the private sector, non-profit organizations, and volunteer agencies. Trinidad
Rancheria used web-based, electronic (emailed), and hard-copy surveys (Appendix B). Planners
also conducted interviews (Appendix C) of key Trinidad Rancheria staff and held multiple open
community workshops to garner input. From that input, the planning team and Tribal Council
retained, but updated the previous plan’s goals and objectives. While a full description of the
goals and objectives is provided in Section III, the goals are:
Goal #1: Protect Lives and Property - Implement activities that assist in protecting lives by
making homes; businesses; infrastructure; critical facilities; natural and cultural resources; and
other property more resistant to hazards.
Goal #2: Promote Sustainable Living - Promote development in a sustainable manner.
Goal #3: Increase Public Awareness of Local Hazards - Increase public awareness,
understanding, support, and demand for hazard mitigation.
Goal #4: Enhance Partnerships and Implementation - Build and support local partnerships to
continuously become less vulnerable to hazards.
Goal #5: Strengthen Emergency Services Capability - Establish policies and procedures to
ensure mitigation projects for critical facilities, services, and infrastructure.
2.
Section II – Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Section II changed significantly from the previous TRMHMP. First, the impact of climate
change on each natural hazard was an overriding consideration. As a coastal community,
Trinidad Rancheria is especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In consideration of
climate change as well as actual events, Trinidad Rancheria has evaluated additional natural
hazards such as sea level rise, coastal erosion, and marine animal disease. The hazard
identification and risk assessment terminology has also changed to reflect FEMA’s three factors
for evaluating hazards – location, extent, and probability of occurrence.
The “worst most likely” scenario-based hazard descriptions are included that match Trinidad
Rancheria’s Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA). The hazard
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Executive Summary
identification and risk assessment resulted in the threats and hazards of most concern shown in
Table 2:
Natural Hazards
Coastline Erosion
Drought
Earthquake
Epidemic
Flood
Landslide
Land Animal Disease
Marine Animal Disease
Sea Level Rise
Sever Winter Storms
Smoke
Tsunami
Wildfires
Table 2. Threats and Hazards of Concern.
Technological Hazards
Human-caused Threats
HAZMAT Release – Land
Armed Assault
HAZMAT Release - Marine
Biological Attack
Power Failure
Cyberattack - Data
Structure Fire
Cyberattack - Infrastructure
Transportation Accident
Hostage Situation
Threats to Clean Water
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Executive Summary
3.
Section III – Mitigation Strategy
The most significant change from the previous TRMHMP is a re-alignment of goals and
objectives to prioritize protecting life and property. The Office of Emergency Services (OES)
Team developed the specific actions and conducted analysis to prioritize their accomplishment.
These mitigation actions will be assigned to specific Trinidad Rancheria staff during the
execution of the strategy in the years to come. While most of the actions are executable in a
three-to-five-year time frame, actions are included that could take decades to accomplish. For
example, sea level rise and coastal erosion are slowly evolving natural hazards that will take the
better part of the next century to result in significant impacts. However, long-term actions must
be started now to protect Tribal lands and resources from these hazards. In the spirit of taking a
wholistic approach, the planning team also developed a set of strategic-level concerns that stretch
across the entire emergency management program:
Scenic Drive - worst
most likely
• Cuts off Tribal Administration, EOC, Social
Services, The Heights Casino, and 18 homes.
Erosion & landlsides
across the Reservation
• Multiple cuases - storms, floods, earthquakes.
Land & marine animal
diseases
• Warming oceans, changing aciditity, invasive
species, disease.
• Warmer, dryer summers increase vectors.
Historic, cultural,
archeological resources
• Opportunity for protection.
Planned & unpanned
power outages
• Emergency power needed for safety &
continuity.
Active shooter
• Opportunity for increased security.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Executive Summary
4.
Section IV – Plan Updates
Through its deliberate planning process, the Tribe has made a number of updates from the
previous plan.
● New goals reflect a greater priority on protecting lives and property.
● There is an extensive analysis of the impact of climate change.
● There are far more GIS-based analyses.
● FEMA’s National Risk Index was used where it was applicable (the county and census
tract levels typically do not provide great fidelity to small jurisdictions such as Trinidad
Rancheria).
● FEMA’s Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool (RAPT) tool was used extensively.
● The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Social Vulnerability tool was
used.
● The strategy, especially goals and projects, reflects greater concern for climate change,
sustainable living, and resilience.
● The Tribe’s Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) was updated
concurrently – both this Plan and the THIRA are synchronized.
The Tribe has been active in executing its mitigation strategy such as slope stabilization,
emergency power, expanding culverts, etc. Completed actions are reflected in Section III.
5.
Section V – Assurance and Plan Adoption
This plan was developed with grants and assistance from the Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA), as well as other Tribal, federal, state, and local resources.
The plan was formally adopted by the Trinidad Rancheria Tribal Council on November XX,
2024. The plan was approved by FEMA Region 9 on December XX, 2024.
The effective dates for the Trinidad Rancheria Tribal Hazard Mitigation Plan are December XX,
2024 - December XX, 2029.
6.
Section VI – Appendices
In the interest of minimizing the size of the base plan, where a large volume of supporting
information is required, it is located in appendices.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Executive Summary
F.
Summary
The Trinidad Rancheria is dedicated to sustaining and expanding its resilience efforts through
hazard mitigation planning and actions. The TRMHMP is an important foundational document in
realizing the overall objective of increasing Tribal resilience.
In addition to simply being in the best interest of the Tribe, having a FEMA-approved hazard
mitigation plan is a condition for receiving certain types of Federal assistance (Table 1). Per 44
CFR §201.7, the Tribe is updating its TRMHMP within the five (5) year timeframe to keep it
current.
This plan is structured according to FEMA’s five (5) required elements to ensure its
completeness and facilitate ease of review and implementation. It begins by outlining the
planning process, followed by a new hazard identification and risk assessment that describes the
threats and hazards of concern. The plan then presents an updated strategy, including new goals,
objectives, and mitigation action items. It highlights the updates made since the previous revision
and concludes with assurances and then the formal adoption of the plan. Supporting information
is provided in the appendices. Through both mitigation actions and other preparedness efforts,
the Trinidad Rancheria endeavors to ensure the resilience of the Tribe for generations to come.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
11
Section I: The Planning Process
I. The Planning Process
“The mitigation plan belongs to the local community.” (Federal Emergency Management
Agency 2013, I-2)
Figure 1. FEMA’s Seven-Step Tribal Hazard Mitigation Plan Development Process.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
12
Section I: The Planning Process
A.
Plan Development Schedule and Planning Team
As depicted in Figure 1, the Planning Team followed the seven (7)-step mitigation planning
process per the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s, “Tribal Hazard Mitigation Planning
Handbook, May 2019.”
1. Describe your community – on September 11, 2024, the Planning Team held a kick-off
meeting to officially begin the planning process. In addition to generally describing the
community, the Planning Team updated threat and hazard profiles for its 2024 Threat and
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) / Stakeholder Preparedness Review
(SPR). In addition, the effort supported the Rancheria’s 2024 Integrated Preparedness Plan
(IPP).
The first step in the THIRA/SPR process was to describe the community and its hazards of
concern. The THIRA/SPR effort involved reviewing such documents as the existing
TRMHMP, Humboldt County, CA Hazard Mitigation Plan, California State Enhanced
Hazard Mitigation Plan, the Trinidad Rancheria 2023 THIRA/SPR, and the Tribe’s plan for
developing redundant access to the Rancheria. In addition, the Tribe seeks to expand its
revenue base using natural resources that must be protected through its interpretive center
project.
2. Identify your hazards – As detailed in Section II, Trinidad Rancheria used existing plans
and assessments, studies, as well as new surveys (Appendix B), workshops, and interviews
(Appendix C) to fully capture and articulate the hazards and threats of greatest concern with
respect to the location each hazard affects, the extent of the damage due to the magnitude
and vulnerability of the Tribe, and probability of occurrence. The outreach included Tribal
leadership, Tribal members and staff, and local city, county, state, and Federal partners. Of
note, the Tribe hosted both internal staff and public workshops on September 10-12, 2024to
garner whole community input.
3. Explain impacts that hazards can have on the community – The first step in explaining
the impacts that hazards have on the community was in the THIRA/SPR surveys and
workshops. Through the THIRA/SPR effort, the participants first assessed each
threat/hazard based on location, extent, probability, and concerns. The follow-up surveys
included THIRA/SPR context statements that described in detail the worst most likely
impacts of each threat/hazard of concern. Based on the survey results, the Planning Team
had open discussions about the impacts of the threats/hazards of concern at the internal
leadership, staff, and public workshops on September 11, 2024. The workshops solidified
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
13
Section I: The Planning Process
the impacts of the threats/hazards. In addition to surveys and workshops, studies, models,
and additional subject matter expert input was used to explain the impacts of the threats and
hazards as depicted in Section II.
4. Review your current capability to mitigate the impacts – An analysis of current
capabilities to mitigate impacts began with the basic review of the current TRMHMP. The
Planning team then specifically identified capabilities and gaps across FEMA’s 32 core
capabilities in the THIRA/SPR process. Perhaps the most important review of current
capabilities to mitigate the impacts came from interviews conducted with Tribal leadership
and departments. The first round of interviews occurred on September 11, 2024. The
second round of interviews occurred on December 3-4, 2024. Additional new and follow-up
interviews were conducted as needed to both clarify the information and gather additional
information.
5. Develop the strategy – As detailed in Section III, Trinidad Rancheria used a combination of
surveys, workshops, and interviews to develop the strategy. The Tribe used a classic
strategy-to-task methodology to derive supporting action items for each objective.
6. Develop the action plan – As detailed in Section III, through a whole community effort,
Trinidad Rancheria established goals, objectives, and priorities to guide the Tribe's
mitigation efforts over the five-year span of this plan and beyond. The prioritized action
plan is based on factors that help identify likelihood of project success:
a. Social Considerations – Life/Safety Impact
i. Will the project have a minimal, direct, or significant impact on the safety of
businesses, residents, and properties within the Tribe?
ii. Will the proposed action have an adverse impact on any one segment of the
population within the Tribe?
iii. Will the project be a proactive measure to reduce natural hazard risk?
b. Administrative Considerations – Administrative/Technical Assistance
i. Are there sufficient staff currently to implement the project?
ii. Is training required for the staff to implement this project?
c. Economic Considerations – Project Cost
i. What is the approximate cost of the project?
ii. How will the project be funded?
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
14
Section I: The Planning Process
d. Other Considerations – Tribal Objectives
i. Does the action advance other Tribal objectives, such as capital
improvements, economic development, environmental quality, or open space
preservation? Does it support the policies of the Tribal reservation master
plan (or another comprehensive-type plan)?
7. Keep track of the progress – As detailed in Sections IV and V, Trinidad Rancheria has
adopted this plan and will begin implementing the plan by conducting the mitigation
activities in a prioritized manner. The Planning Team will review the plan and status of the
mitigation efforts semi-annually and adjust as required.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
15
Section I: The Planning Process
B.
How the plan was prepared and who was involved
Element
A1. Does the plan document the planning
process, including how it was prepared and who
was involved in the process?
Requirements
a.
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(1)
Intent: To inform Tribal members about the overall
approach to the plan’s development and serve as a
permanent record of how decisions were made and
who was involved. This record is also useful for the
next plan update.
The plan shall document how the plan was
prepared, including the schedule or
timeframe and the activities that made up the
plan’s development.
Document means to provide factual
evidence for how the Tribal government
developed the plan.
The documentation requirement typically is
met with a narrative description and other
records, such as meeting minutes, sign-in
sheets, or newspaper articles. Examples of
activities that may be documented include,
but are not limited to, planning team
meetings, information exchanges at
gatherings, meetings between Tribal offices
or departments or with external agencies,
open houses at libraries or school events,
radio broadcasts, development of
interactive web pages, and posting and
distribution of printed materials.
b.
The plan shall document who was involved
on the planning team, including each
person’s position or title and
department/agency.
Involved in the process means engaged as
participants and given the chance to provide input to
affect the plan’s content. This is more than simply
being invited or adopting the plan. Evidence of
planning team participation may include
documentation of meetings attended, data provided,
or other activities by individuals or
departments/agencies.
First and foremost, this plan was developed using whole community concepts to be inclusive and
to ensure the highest-quality information available. This update was developed based on
FEMA’s “Tribal Mitigation Planning Handbook,” dated May 2019, and “Tribal Mitigation Plan
Review Guide,” effective December 5, 2018. Of note, this update incorporates the option
reflected in the handbook and review guide to include technological hazards as well as humancaused threats that are described in the “National Preparedness Goal”, Second Edition (2015).
Furthermore, this update was developed in conjunction with the Trinidad Rancheria 2023 Threat
and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) and Stakeholder Preparedness per
FEMA’s Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 201, 3rd Edition (2018). Information in the
Mitigation Plan is based on research from a variety of sources. The intent is to integrate the
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
16
Section I: The Planning Process
TRMHMP with the six elements of the “National Preparedness System”. Planners conducted
data research and analysis, whole community surveys (Appendix B), Planning Team meetings,
Trinidad Rancheria departmental interviews (Appendix C), a Tribal staff workshop, and public
whole community workshops. Workshop and meeting agendas are in Appendix D. Sign-in
sheets are available from the Office of Emergency Services on request. In developing the plan,
the team followed the following steps:
•
Planning Team formation – 2024
o Planning Team kick-off meeting for the 2024 TRMHMP update – September 11,
2024.
•
Preliminary research on existing Trinidad Rancheria plans and risk assessments –
Beginning August 13, 2024.
o The 2019 TRMHMP was set as the baseline for the revision.
▪
The layout and format were changed to reflect guidance such as FEMA’s
Tribal Mitigation Planning Handbook (2018) and FEMA’s Tribal
Mitigation Plan Review Guide (December 5th, 2018).
▪
Ultimately, the elements of FEMA’s Tribal Mitigation Plan Review Guide
were chosen as the organization structure to increase clarity and
simplicity.
Hazard profiles were expanded based on the Tribe’s 2023 THIRA/SPR
effort.
o Trinidad Rancheria Emergency Operations Plan
▪
Provided information about hazards as well as capabilities, roles, and
responsibilities during disasters.
o Trinidad Rancheria Comprehensive Community-Based Plan
▪
Provided Trinidad Rancheria history, description, borders, and information
regarding planned future growth.
o Trinidad Rancheria Tribal Environment Plan
▪
▪ Provided information about natural resources as well as maps.
o Trinidad Rancheria Integrated Management Plan
Provided analysis for integrating natural resources into other planning
efforts.
o Energy and Mineral Development Plan
▪
▪ Provided information about low impact development.
o Chemical Response Plan
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
Provided information about potential hazards, vulnerabilities, and
capabilities.
o Long Range Transportation Plan and Comprehensive Safety Action Plan
▪
Provided information about the historical road washouts, “current” road
conditions, and informed the probability of future washouts, especially
along the critical Scenic Drive.
o Waterfront Operations Plan (Area of Special Biological Significance - ASBS)
▪
Provided information about critical species in Trinidad Bay as well as
Trinidad Rancheria’s responsibility regarding safeguarding the water
quality.
o Trinidad Rancheria 2016 Nonpoint Source Pollution Management Program Plan
▪
▪
Provided information about the watershed, drainage, and maps.
● FEMA Approved Mitigation Plans (County, City, Tribal)
o State of California Enhanced HMP.
o Elements of the State of California Hazard Mitigation Plan were incorporated,
such as specific geological studies.
o Humboldt County HMP
▪
While the Tribe desires to maintain its own TRMHMP, Trinidad
Rancheria expressed an interest in being aligned with Humboldt County.
▪
Various elements were adopted such as the County general descriptions,
natural hazard considerations, etc.
● Reviewed other external plans and assessments
o Humboldt County Wildfire Protection Plan
▪
▪
Provided information regarding the fire hazard areas that Trinidad
Rancheria occupies as well as fire prevention actions in Humboldt County
at large.
Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries Advisory
Council “Climate Change Impacts” report.
▪
Provided climate change impact information of the various hazards in the
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment.
Provided detailed information regarding sea level rise and coastal erosion,
including hazard maps.
o State of California My Hazards Tool
▪
Provided an overview and some graphics of earthquake, flood, fire, and
tsunami risk.
o Hazards-United States (Hazus)
▪
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Section I: The Planning Process
Used to both map vulnerable areas/facilities and identify the magnitude of
risks.
o FEMA Disaster Data Visualization Tool
▪
Provided historical information about the types, number, frequency, and
times of year for past Federally declared disasters.
FEMA’s National Risk Index was used where it was applicable (the county and
census tract levels typically do not provide great fidelity to small jurisdictions
such as Trinidad Rancheria).
FEMA’s Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool (RAPT) tool was used
extensively.
The CDC’s Social Vulnerability tool was used.
Historical research and current wildfire events
▪
o
o
o
o
▪
Provided information about non-Federally declared disasters.
Current and recent events provided information about the trend of
increasing intensity of disaster in California, especially fire.
o Online, electronic, and hard-copy surveys (Appendix B)
▪
▪
Provided demographic information for the whole community participation.
▪
Provided whole community input regarding the location, extent, and
probability of the hazards of most concern.
▪
Provided information to prioritize the hazards of most concern.
● Site visits – September 10-13, 2024.
o Interviews (Appendix C) - September 11-13, 2024.
o Public meeting – September 12, 2024.
o Tribal Leadership meeting – September 11, 2024.
o Trinidad Rancheria OES Team meetings – September 11-13, 2024.
o Workshop and meeting flyers, agendas, and sign in sheets - Appendix D
● Draft TRMHMP plan reviews
o First draft plan review – November -15-20, 2024
o Second draft plan review – December 04-19, 2024
o Final Plan Review - January XX-XX, 2024
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
The Planning Team
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan is the result of a collaborative effort among the
Trinidad Rancheria OES Team, department directors, and the whole community (Table 3). The
Transportation and Land Use Director served as the Tribal Project Manager and played a key
role in the development of goals and action items.
The Trinidad Rancheria OES Team convened regularly to guide development of the MultiHazard Mitigation Plan. The Team played an integral role in developing the mission, goals, and
action items for the mitigation plan. The Team consisted of the Tribal CEO, Tribal Council
members, Departmental Managers/Directors, staff of the Trinidad Rancheria, and Tribal
members.
Trinidad Rancheria’s Chief Executive Officer (CEO) designated the Trinidad Rancheria OES
Team as the core personnel for developing the TRMHMP (Table 3). The Trinidad Rancheria
OES Team, led by the Tribal Chief Executive Officer (CEO), has the authority and responsibility
to address hazards, develop the mitigation plan, organize resources, find appropriate funding, and
oversee the activity for implementation, monitoring, and evaluation. Due to the various
members’ work with external partners, they have established relationships to form the baseline of
a whole community approach. For example, OES Team members participated in Humboldt
County OES meetings and participated in such efforts as the Redwood Coast Tsunami
Workgroup.
Name
Jacque HostlerCarmesin
Leslie Sanders
Tyler Felt
Angie Higley
Amy Atkins-Kelley
Ron Sundberg
Rachel Sundberg
Rachel Veiga
Billy Gritts
Casey Box
Table 3. Planning Team Members.
Role
Contribution
Trinidad Rancheria CEO
Overall Oversight
Transportation and Land Use
Director
Emergency Operations Tech 1
Tribal CFO
Executive Manager
Natural Resource Director
Tribal Programs Director/Tribal
Historic Preservation Officer
Tribal Programs Housing Director
Cher-Ae Heights Casino Security
Chief
Harbor Business Director
Tribal Project Manager
Project Management
Financial Oversight
Tribal Operations SME
Environmental SME
Tribal Services, Natural &
Cultural SME.
Tribal Housing SME
OES Coordination and
Casino Enterprise SME
Harbor Operations SME
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
C.
Public Partnership
Element
A2. Does the plan document an opportunity for
public comment during the drafting stage and
prior to plan approval, including a description of
how the Tribal government defined “public”?
Requirements
a.
The plan shall describe how the Tribal
government defined “public.”
For example, “public” is sometimes defined
as including only Tribal membership, or
Tribal citizens. It might also be identified as
those living on Tribal land or in the Tribal
service area. Tribal members/citizens who do
not live on the Tribal lands may also want to
provide input or comment on the plan.
b.
The plan shall describe how the public was
given the opportunity to be involved in the
planning process and how their feedback was
incorporated into the plan. Examples of
public involvement include, but are not
limited to, interactive websites with drafts for
public review and comment, questionnaires
or surveys, or booths at community events.
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(1)(i)
Intent: To ensure that Tribal members understand
what the Tribal government is doing on their behalf
and to provide a chance for input.
An opportunity to be involved in the
planning process means that the public is
engaged or invited as participants and given
the chance to provide input that may affect
the plan’s content.
The opportunity for participation shall occur during
plan development, which is prior to the comment
period on the final plan and prior to plan
adoption/approval.
1. The Public
In addition to Tribal staff, the internal public includes Tribal members (living both on and off
Trinidad Rancheria lands), non-Tribal members living on Tribal land, and non-Tribal staff who
work at the various Trinidad Rancheria enterprises. External partners include citizens and local
governments to include the City of Trinidad, Humboldt County, the State of California, the
Federal government (FEMA, the Bureau of Indian Affairs, Environmental Protection Agency,
etc.), and surrounding Tribal nations. In addition, public partners include private sector
enterprises (especially Trinidad Rancheria vendors and Tribal enterprise customers), academia
such as California State Polytechnic University, Humboldt, non-profit and volunteer agencies,
and other organizations such as the Redwood Coast Tsunami Workgroup. One component of
Trinidad Rancheria’s public outreach was a risk assessment survey (Appendix B). The survey
was available online as well as provided directly to the public as a Microsoft Word document via
both soft-copy and hard-copy. Those taking the survey were asked to identify themselves
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
according to common occupations in Humboldt County, their Tribal affiliation, and/or their
residency. Table 4 is the list of categories by which those taking the survey could identify
themselves. Those taking the survey could select multiple options as well as write in additional
identifiers.
Table 4. Public Outreach Partner Categories.
Agriculture
Forestry
Leisure / Entertainment
Construction
Government - city
Mining (quarrying, oil,
gas)
Education - College Government - county
Natural Resources
Education K-12
Emergency
Management
Government - Federal
Government - state
Facility
Maintenance
Faith-based
community
Finance and
Insurance
Firefighting
Fishing
Government – tribal
nation
Health and social
services
Hunting
Information
Law Enforcement
Non-profit Organization
Non-Tribal member
residing or working on
Tribal land/businesses
Parks and Recreation
Planning
Professional, technical
services
Public Works
Real Estate renting and
leasing
Retail trade
Science
Transportation
and warehousing
Tribal Member
Utilities
Volunteer
Organization
Wholesale trade
Other services
In addition, participants were given the opportunity to identify as having disabilities and/or
access and functional needs (AFN) or working with those who work with the AFN population.
2. Public Involvement
The public was afforded the opportunity to engage in the planning process through multiple
means:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Online Risk assessment survey beginning August 13, 2024.
Microsoft Word-based risk assessment survey beginning August 13, 2024.
o Soft copy emailed
o Hard copy directly from the Trinidad Rancheria Project Manager
Tribal member workshop – September 11, 2024.
Whole community public workshop – September 11, 2024.
Interaction through ongoing whole community meetings such as regular Humboldt
County Office of Emergency Services, Humboldt Community Organizations Active in
Disaster (COAD), and the Redwood Coast Tsunami working group
Publicly available draft plan
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
o Electronic beginning November 19, 2024.
o Posted on the Trinidad Rancheria website on December 16, 2024 https://trinidad-rancheria.org/news-announcements/.
Figure 2 highlights the backgrounds of survey participants and Figure 3 describes their
experience working with people with disabilities and others with access and functional needs
(AFN). While sign-in sheets are available on request from OES, agendas are in Appendix D.
Those who completed the survey, identified with:
•
Fourteen (14) Individuals took the pre-workshops survey
Figure 2. Risk Survey Participants.
Figure 3. Risk Survey Participants’ Experience with Access and Functional Needs.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
3. Incorporation of Public Feedback
Public feedback informed the TRMHMP update during all phases:
● Organizing the planning process and resources – public experience garnered since the
last plan update led to such outcomes as including coastal erosion, sea level rise, marine
animal disease (Domoic Acid/Toxic Algae Blooms/ (ASP), and climate change as
specific considerations. In addition, the Tribe’s development of its eco-friendly pier that
catches and treats all runoff as well as public workshops in the crafting of the Trinidad
Rancheria Comprehensive Plan informed the TRMHMP update.
● Assessing Risks – multiple versions of the risk assessment survey (Appendix B) were
used to collect and incorporate public information in two ways. First, public input was
used to establish the final location, extent, and probability values. Second, public input
was used to vote on the hazards that most concern Trinidad Rancheria. Table 5 shows
the mathematical values for each factor. The final ranked score was based on the
following methodology:
Location
Description Weight
Extensive
3
Moderate
2
Limited
1
Table 5: Threat and Hazard Scoring Methodology.
Extent
Description
Weight
Catastrophic 4
Critical
3
Limited
2
Negligible
1
Probability
Description
Weight
Highly Likely 4
Likely
3
Possibly
2
Unlikely
1
Concern
Description Weight
Very High
5
High
4
Moderate
3
Low
2
Very Low
1
The results for each assessment category were summed to arrive at a total score for each
threat/hazard. The hazard identification and risk assessment resulted in the prioritized natural
hazards of most concern shown in Table 6, technological hazards of concern in Table 7, and
human-caused threats of concern in Table 8.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
Table 6. Natural Hazards of Greatest Concern.
Threat/Hazard
Location Extent
Probability Concern Sum
Rank
Landslide
42
53
56
63
214
1
Coastline Erosion
42
47
57
62
208
2
Earthquake
43
51
55
57
206
3
Severe Winter
Storms
41
49
54
61
205
4
Tsunami
33
43
42
49
167
5
Sea Level Rise
32
40
43
46
161
6
Wildfires
32
38
38
45
153
7
Epidemic
37
38
38
35
148
8
Marine Animal
Disease
32
36
38
42
148
9
Drought
30
32
41
40
143
10
Flood
27
34
39
40
140
11
Smoke
30
29
40
39
138
12
Land Animal
Disease
19
23
29
27
98
13
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
Table 7: Trinidad Rancheria’s Technological Hazards of Greatest Concern.
Hazard
Location Extent
Probability
Concern Sum Rank
Power Failure
39
48
56
57
200
1
HAZMAT Release - 35
44
44
54
177
2
Marine
Structure Fire
33
42
34
47
156
3
Transportation
25
37
43
47
152
4
Accident
HAZMAT Release - 27
40
35
45
147
5
Land
Table 8: Trinidad Rancheria’s Human-Caused Threats of Greatest Concern.
Threat/Hazard
Location Extent
Probability
Concern Sum Rank
Armed Assault
27
46
38
62
173
1
Cyberattack (Data) 35
42
36
58
171
2
Cyberattack
34
45
34
58
171
3
(Infrastructure)
Sabotage
29
41
30
49
149
4
Biological Attack
20
41
41
39
141
5
● Developing a Mitigation Strategy – interviews (Appendix C) and workshops during
site visits were used to collect input regarding mitigation strategy elements. The public
forums were used to establish goals, objectives, resources, and prioritized actions.
● Adopting and Implementing the Plan – the Trinidad Rancheria public information
requirements ensured there were multiple means of notification for meetings with
Planning Team members and Tribal Council, public workshops, and review of
documents, including the final TRMHMP before Tribal Council adoption.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
4. Involving Neighboring Communities, Tribal, and Regional
Agencies
Element
A3. Does the plan document, as appropriate, an
opportunity for neighboring communities,
Tribal and regional agencies involved in hazard
mitigation activities, agencies that have the
authority to regulate development, as well as
other interests to be involved in the planning
process?
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(1)(ii)
Intent: To demonstrate a deliberative planning
process that involves the appropriate Tribal
members and partners for the Tribal planning area
that have the experience and information needed to
develop the plan, as well as the responsibility or
authority to make decisions and implement hazard
mitigation activities.
a.
Requirements
The plan shall identify all Tribal
members/citizens, and partners who were
given an opportunity to be involved in the
planning process. During plan review, it is
important for the reviewer to consider that
variations in Tribal capability and/or cultural
practice may influence participation.
The plan shall identify how Tribal members/citizens
and partners were invited to participate in the
process.
Internally, Trinidad Rancheria advertised information about each step of the planning process
through their normal monthly communication outreach to Tribal members. Department
Directors/Managers were specifically invited to workshops during site visits. The Planning
Team also conducted interviews (Appendix C) with department directors as well as their staff.
Externally, the OES team provided notifications and updates to such partners as:
Humboldt County OES
Humboldt County Association of Governments (HCAOG)
City of Trinidad
North Coast Tribal Transportation Commission
o 11 Tribes located in Humboldt and Del Norte County
● Notices via Trinidad Rancheria Facebook page
● On Trinidad Rancheria website - https://trinidad-rancheria.org/news-announcements/
●
●
●
●
Trinidad Rancheria staff attend regular coordination meetings with their respective partners. The
staff invited their external partners to participate through a variety of means - in-person, email
correspondence, and physical handouts/flyers. In addition to various locations around Trinidad
Rancheria, flyers for the public workshop were also physically posted at the Humboldt County
OES facility.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
D.
Integration with Other Trinidad Rancheria Planning Efforts
Element
A4. Does the plan describe the review and
incorporation of existing plans, studies, and
reports?
a.
Requirements
The plan shall describe what existing plans,
studies, and reports were reviewed.
Examples of the types of existing sources
reviewed may include, but are not limited to,
natural resources plans; housing plans;
analyses or studies from Tribal departments,
neighboring Tribe, colleges, universities, and
academic institutions; socioeconomic or
building information from Tribal
comprehensive plans; results from hazardspecific studies, plans for sacred sites, or
hazard data or plans from tribal, federal,
regional, state, or local agencies.
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(1)(iii)
Intent: To identify existing data and information,
shared objectives, and past and ongoing activities
that can help inform the mitigation plan.
b.
A5. Does the plan include a discussion on how
the planning process was integrated, to the
extent possible, with other ongoing Tribal
planning efforts as other FEMA programs and
initiatives?
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(1)(iv)
Intent: To identify how the Tribal government
leveraged any other planning activities or FEMA
programs to accomplish hazard mitigation and
reduce risk.
The plan shall document how relevant
information was incorporated into the
mitigation plan.
Incorporate means to reference or include
information from other existing sources to
develop the content of the mitigation plan.
a. The plan shall describe how the Tribal
government integrated the current planning
process and/or findings with other ongoing
Tribal planning efforts.
Planning efforts means governance structures that
are used to manage land use and development and
other Tribal government decision-making, such as
Tribal master plans, capital improvement plans,
natural and/or cultural resource plans, plans for
sacred sites, emergency operations plans, and/or
other long-range plans.
b.
The plan shall describe how the Tribal
government integrated the current planning
process with other FEMA programs and
initiatives.
Examples of other FEMA programs and
initiatives include, but are not limited to, the
National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP),
HMA grant programs, Threat and Hazard
Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA),
and recovery programs.
To the extent possible means that consideration will
be given to the inherent differences in governance
and capabilities among tribal governments.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
The Trinidad Rancheria’s Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan (TRMHMP) is just one of a family of
disaster preparedness-related plans the Tribe is completing. The Tribe developed this TRMHMP
update using a holistic approach in consideration of the National Preparedness System (NPS) as
shown in Figure 4. As highlighted in Figure 4, Trinidad Rancheria is simultaneously developing
its TRMHMP, Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA), and its
Stakeholder Preparedness Review (SPR). By doing so, Trinidad Rancheria is ensuring the
hazards, threats, vulnerabilities, and capabilities are consistent across the three assessments. In
addition, Trinidad Rancheria is realizing efficiencies by not conducting separate assessments.
Trinidad Rancheria intends to closely follow the TRMHMP, THIRA, and SPR with an update of
its Emergency Operations Plan (EOP), and Continuity of Operations Plan (COOP).
The Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities grant is one example of the NPS element
“Building and Sustaining Resources.” Another action under this element is the Tribal Homeland
Security Grant Program, which requires the completion of a THIRA, SPR, and Integrated
Preparedness Plan (IPP). Once Trinidad Rancheria has an updated EOP and a COOP plan, it will
continue around the National Preparedness System to “Validating Capabilities” through
exercises and then “Reviewing and Updating” all these efforts regularly – including updating this
hazard mitigation plan as required.
Figure 4. National Preparedness System and Representative Actions.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
29
Section I: The Planning Process
E.
Method and Schedule for Keeping the Plan Current: How, When,
and Who will Evaluate the Plan
Element
A6. Does the plan include a description of the
method and schedule for keeping the plan current
(monitoring, evaluating and updating the
mitigation plan within the plan update cycle)?
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(4)(i)
Intent: To establish a process for the Tribal
government to track the progress of the plan’s
implementation and ensure the plan remains
current and viable.
a.
Requirements
The plan shall identify how, when, and by
whom the plan will be monitored.
Monitoring means tracking the relevance and
implementation of the plan over time and
includes all elements of the plan.
b.
The plan shall identify how, when, and by
whom the plan will be evaluated.
Evaluating means assessing the effectiveness of
the plan at achieving its stated purpose and goals.
c.
The plan shall identify how, when, and by
whom the plan will be updated.
Updating means reviewing and revising the plan at
least once every 5 years.
The plan shall include the title of the individual or
name of the department/agency responsible for
leading these efforts.
1.
How, When, and Who will Monitor the Plan
This plan, and the accomplishment of action items defined in it, will be monitored by the
Planning Team. Specifically, Objective #4.3 states, “Build hazard mitigation concerns into the
Tribal planning and budgeting process.” Action #4.3.1 states, “Develop a review procedure to
ensure mitigation is incorporated into applicable plans and budgets. In addition, Action #5.2.2
states, “Continue to update as required and needed, emergency plans including: FEMA Hazard
Mitigation Plan, Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan, Continuity of Operations Plan,
Disaster Recovery Plan, Debris Management Plan, Individual Households, and Special Needs
Assistance Plan.”
Led by the Trinidad Rancheria Emergency Operations Technician, the Planning Team will
regularly report their progress in accomplishing their assigned actions. Tables 49-51 assign
responsibility for completing actions to various departments/programs. In addition to regularly
scheduled Planning Team meetings, progress reports will be provided to the Tribal Council at
least semi-annually and to the public annually (Table 49).
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
2. How, When, and Who will Evaluate the Plan
At least semi-annually, the Planning Team, led by the Trinidad Rancheria Emergency Operations
Technician, will evaluate the effectiveness of the plan and the achievement of planned actions
and objectives. If the achievement of actions and objectives are on target, then no remedial
actions are necessary. If the accomplishment of actions and objectives deviates from the plan
(either positively or negatively), then the Planning Team will decide one of two causes and
remedial changes:
● The plan is sound, but the execution of the action is faulty. In this case, a remedy for the
action accomplishment is dictated.
● The remedial action is being accomplished according to plan, but the desired effects are
incorrect based on wrong planning assumptions, conditions, or a change in
circumstances. In this case, a modification of the plan may be warranted.
3. How, When, and Who will Update the Plan
If correctly executed actions are not achieving the desired effect (for whatever reason), an
immediate change in the plan may be warranted. This could occur in circumstances of the risk
management strategy of risk transfer. In this case, a plan adjustment may be required. Outside of
corrective actions, the Planning Team will begin the process of updating this plan 2.5 years after
its adoption. This allows approximately 12 months to contract for support or garner other
planning resources required to begin. At the four-year point, the next plan update will begin and
follow a nominal one-year planning process to have the next plan revision complete by the fiveyear point.
Table 9. Plan Monitoring, Evaluating, and Updating Schedule.
Plan Monitoring
Point of Contact
Timeline
Planning Team action item
accomplishment review
Tribal Council action item
accomplishment report
Public action item
accomplishment review
Ad hoc plan updates
FEMA-required five-year
update
The respective POC
responsible for each
action item
Planning Team
Planning Team
Planning Team
Planning Team
Semi-annual Planning Team
meetings
Semi-annual Tribal Council
progress report
Annual public progress
report
As required to ensure the
plan is relevant
Every five years
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
F.
Continued Public Participation
Element
A7. Does the plan include a discussion of how the
Tribal government will continue public
participation in the plan maintenance process?
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(4)(iv)
Intent: To identify how the public will continue to
have an opportunity to participate in the plan’s
maintenance and implementation over time.
Requirements
a. The plan shall describe how the tribal
government will continue to seek public
participation after the plan has been
approved and during the plan’s maintenance
process.
Examples include, but are not limited to, periodic
presentations on the plan’s progress to Tribal
officials, schools, or other Tribal groups; annual
questionnaires or surveys; Tribal gatherings; and/or
postings on social media and websites.
Trinidad Rancheria’s strategic Goal #3 is to, “Increase Public Awareness of Local Hazards.”
There are multiple objectives and actions under this goal for the Tribe to accomplish (Table 10).
Trinidad Rancheria will use its standardized processes for communicating with Tribal members
about mitigation actions such as its monthly information packets sent out via email and printed
materials. Information about significant events is also posted in high traffic areas at the Tribal
Office. Trinidad Rancheria also holds monthly Community Council meetings to provide updates
and solicit input.
Table 10. Public Participation Objectives and Actions.
Obj. #
Objective
Action
3.1
Increase public awareness and
understanding, support, and
demand for hazard mitigation.
3.2
Heighten public awareness of
the full range of hazards they
may face.
3.3
Publicize and encourage the
adoption of appropriate hazard
mitigation measures.
Action 3.1.1: Hold annual public meetings
(and publish the results) to update the
community on the status of Trinidad
Rancheria’s hazard mitigation actions.
Action 3.2.1: Engage in FEMA’s semiannual preparedness month activities
(September and April) to move community
members from awareness to action.
Action 3.3.1: Hold semi-annual
community-based hazard mitigation days
such as fire defensible space cleanup and
winter storm preparation.
Externally, Planning Team members will continue to participate in local, state, and Federal
activities that support this plan. Enhance “Partnerships and Implementation” is a strategic goal
with such actions as attending/hosting local mitigation-related events (Table 11).
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section I: The Planning Process
Table 11. Partnerships and Implementation Objectives and Actions.
Obj. #
Objective
4.1
Build and support local
Action 4.1.1: Attend and/or host Humboldt
partnerships with stakeholders Operational Area disaster preparedness
in the community.
events. Invite Humboldt Operational Area
partners to Trinidad Rancheria disaster
preparedness events.
Build a team of committed
Action 4.2.1: Develop a Tribal Community
volunteers to safeguard the
Emergency Response Team (CERT)
community before, during,
program or join a multi-jurisdictional
and after a disaster.
CERT program.
Build hazard mitigation
Action 4.3.1: Make hazard mitigation
concerns into the Tribal
concerns standard agenda/document items.
planning and budgeting
process.
4.2
4.3
Action
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
33
Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
II.
Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Figure 5. Trinidad Rancheria Planning Area.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
34
Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
A. The Planning Area
This plan update encompasses current and planned trust lands and fee properties, including
buildings infrastructure, natural and cultural/historical resources, Tribal members, staff, and
visitors (Figure 5).
Element
B1. Does the plan include a description of
the type, location, and extent of all natural
hazards that can affect the Tribal planning
area?
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(2)(i)
Intent: To understand the natural hazards
affecting the Tribal planning area in order to
identify which hazard risks are most
significant and which locations are most
adversely affected.
Requirements
a.
The plan shall include a description of the
Tribal planning area (See footnote 6 on page
7).
b.
The plan shall include a description of the
natural hazards that can affect the Tribal
planning area. (Note: There is no
requirement to include manmade hazards in
the mitigation plan. FEMA will not require
removal of this information, but if these
hazards are included, they will not be
reviewed to meet the requirements).
c.
The plan shall provide the rationale for the
omission of any natural hazards that are
commonly recognized to affect the Tribal
planning area.
d.
The description shall include information
on the location and the extent of each
identified hazard.
Location means the geographic areas in the
Tribal planning area that are affected by the
hazard. For many hazards, maps are the best
way to illustrate location. However, location
may be described in other formats. For
example, if a geographically- specific location
cannot be identified for a hazard, such as
tornadoes, the plan may state that the entire
Tribal planning area is equally at risk to that
hazard.
Extent means the strength or magnitude of the
hazard. For example, extent could be described
in terms of the specific measurement of an
occurrence based on a scientific scale (e.g.,
Enhanced Fujita Scale, Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Scale, Richter Scale, flood depth
grids) and/or other hazard factors, such as the
duration and/or speed of onset. Extent is not the
same as impacts, which are described in subelement B3.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
1.
About the Cher-Ae Heights Indian Community of the Trinidad
Rancheria (Trinidad Rancheria)
The Cher-Ae Heights Indian Community of the Trinidad Rancheria is a federally recognized
tribe whose membership is primarily Yurok with ancestral ties to the Wiyot, Tolowa, Chetco,
Karuk and Hupa peoples. While they share similar cultural and historical traditions, each Tribe
has a distinct heritage. The Rancheria is within the ancestral territory of the Yurok peoples and
is in an area of great cultural significance to the Trinidad Rancheria and other local Tribal
entities. The core land holdings of the Rancheria are located on a coastal bluff west of U.S.
Highway-101 just southeast of the town of Trinidad, which is about 25 miles north of Eureka.
The Trinidad Rancheria was established in 1906 by an act of the U.S. Congress that authorized
the purchase of small tracts of land for “homeless Indians”. In 1908, 60 acres of land were
purchased on Trinidad Bay to accommodate the Tribe. The Tribe’s Federal Recognition was
granted by the Department of the Interior in 1917. Between 1950 and 1961, the Trinidad
Rancheria approved home assignments on the reservation and enacted their original Articles of
Association. In 2008, the Tribe passed a new constitution that replaced the original Articles of
Association and has increased their Enrolled Membership to 280 Tribal members. The Trinidad
Rancheria is an impoverished community; trust properties are comprised of five separate parcels
that total approximately 108 acres, located in the towns of Trinidad, Westhaven, and
McKinleyville.
The Tribal planning area includes the lands upon which the Tribal government is authorized to
govern, develop, or regulate (Figure 5). These lands may include, but are not limited to, lands
within the reservation and off-reservation lands owned by, managed by, or held in trust for the
Tribal government, allotted trust land, and fee land. These lands may be either contiguous or
noncontiguous and for multi-jurisdictional planning may include other Tribes or non-Tribal
jurisdictions.
a)
Trinidad Rancheria Main Parcel
The largest parcel, consisting of 58.5 acres, is also referred to in this document as “the Main
Parcel" contains 18 Tribal homes as well as the majority of administrative and departmental
services. Administrative Services include all Tribal Government Operations, with Departmental
Services, including Tribal Member Services; Social Services; Natural Resource Department
which includes all environmental programs; Transportation and Land Use; and Emergency
Operations which includes Public Safety. Additionally, the Main Parcel houses a water
treatment facility, the Victim Services Center, and library. Recreational vehicle (RV) parking
and Heights Casino are located on the Main Parcel and are for the benefit of both Tribal
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
36
Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
members, the broader Trinidad area community, and visitors to the Main Parcel. (Figure 6). The
property is 60 meters above sea level and has 1 coastal access road that is maintained by the
Tribe and the County of Humboldt. Seven (7) Tribal homes are located on the coastal bluff, (the
lowest being roughly 10.6 meters above sea level. Trinidad Rancheria receives its water from the
City of Trinidad Community Service District and power from Pacific Gas and Electric.
However, most of the Tribal homes utilize propane and wood to heat their homes. All of the
residents that live on the Main Parcel are on septic tank and leach field systems. The Heights
Casino previously was an official Red Cross Evacuation Center. Tribal Administration, the
EOC/Social Services building, the casino, and Trinidad Harbor facilities all have emergency
generators.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Figure 6. Trinidad Rancheria Main and Westhaven Parcels.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
38
Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
b)
Trinidad Rancheria Westhaven Parcel
A portion of Tribal housing, located on an 8-acre parcel referred to as the Westhaven parcel, is
separated from the Main Parcel of the Trinidad Rancheria by U.S. 101. An additional 5-acre
parcel referred to as the Trillium parcel is also located on the east side of U.S. 101 and includes
Tribal staff housing and rental housing. The Trinidad Rancheria Westhaven parcel has 11 Tribal
homes, including 2 trailers (Figure 6). The property is 83 meters above sea level and is forested.
Westhaven Drive is a 2-lane road that runs south to north and provides access to the Trinidad
Rancheria Westhaven Housing area. Highway-101 separates the Main Parcel and the Trinidad
Rancheria Westhaven Housing area. The area is serviced by the City of Trinidad and the Tribe.
Westhaven receives its water from the City of Trinidad Community Service District and power
from Pacific Gas and Electric although most of the Tribal homes utilize propane and wood to
heat their homes. The Westhaven residential homes use multiple means for wastewater
treatment.
c)
Trinidad Rancheria McKinleyville Parcel
The Trinidad Rancheria McKinleyville Parcel area is 27 acres of trust land that contains 15
Tribal homes (Figure 7). The McKinleyville Parcel has an emergency water well that was drilled
with money secured from the Bureau of Reclamation. The water would have to be treated before
it could be utilized for drinking purposes but could be used for fire protection if needed. The
property is 65 meters above sea level and is forested. Archer Road is a single access road to the
Tribes trust land, which is serviced by the McKinleyville Services District and the Tribe. The
McKinleyville Housing area receives its water from the McKinleyville Community Services
District and its power from Pacific Gas and Electric. Each home is on an individual septic tank
and leach field system. Tribal members that live in the McKinleyville Area must take Highway
101 North to get to the Main Parcel. Portions of Highway 101 are just 2.5 meters above sea
level.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Figure 7. McKinleyville Parcel.
Trinidad Rancheria Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
40
Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
d)
Trinidad Harbor
Trinidad Rancheria also owns approximately 9.3 acres of trust land at Trinidad Harbor that
includes the Trinidad Pier, Seascape Restaurant, Seascape Wastewater Treatment Facility/Public
Restrooms, the Bait Shop, a Vacation Rental, and surrounding property, most of which is 3.7
meters above sea level (Figure 8). These tidelands are part of the 34 Areas of Special Biological
Significance (ASBS), ocean areas monitored and maintained for water quality by the State Water
Resources Control Board. The water surrounding the Harbor supports an unusual variety of
aquatic life and hosts unique individual species. The Trinidad Harbor receives its water services
from the City of Trinidad and power from Pacific Gas and Electric. The Tribe also has propane
backup generators installed to power the boat launch, Seascape Restaurant, and the Wastewater
Facility in case the Harbor loses power.
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Figure 8. Trinidad Harbor.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
a)
Indigenous Marine Stewardship Area
Trinidad Rancheria, the Resighini Tribe of the Yurok People, and the Tolowa Dee-ni’ Nation,
designated the first Indigenous Marine Stewardship Area (IMSA) in the United States (Figure 9).
The three Tribes agreed to collaboratively steward nearly 700 square miles (about 1,800 square
kilometers) of ocean and coast from the California-Oregon border to Little River near the town
of Trinidad, California. (Kimbrough, 2024) As such, Trinidad Rancheria shares the
responsibility for stewardship of this area with their partners.
Figure 9. Indigenous Marine Stewardship Area.
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2.
Topography
The original Main Parcel is in Northern California, just south of the Redwood National Park near
U.S. Highway-101, about 25 miles north of Eureka, and overlooking both the Trinidad Harbor
and the Pacific Ocean. It is a landscape of coastal bluffs, redwoods, and rocky shorelines
between the Pacific Ocean and the Coast Range (Figure 10).
3.
Geology
Trinidad Rancheria is located on a quaternary alluvium (Figure 10), which is a certain sediment
deposit often referred to as “cover.” This is because underneath this layer is bed rock. The top
layer is made up of clay, silt, sand, gravel, and occasionally caliche. This makes the location
highly susceptible to erosion and slides.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Figure 10. Geology.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
4.
Soil
The predominate soil type along the coastline is Candymountain inceptisols. Candymountain
Inceptisols are deep, well drained soils formed in marine deposits from mixed sources on
uplifted marine terraces and hillslopes of 0 to 75 percent. The soil is fine sandy loam. This soil
also occurs in wet climates but does dry out during the dry season. Clearly, the combination of
the fine sandy loam on steep hillsides makes slides likely (Figure 11). (U.S. Department of
Agriculture, 2016)
Figure 11. Soils.
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5.
Climate
Trinidad Rancheria and its coastal neighboring communities have a maritime climate with high
humidity prevailing throughout the year. Trinidad Rancheria receives an average of 40.4 inches
of rain per year. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2024) Ninety percent
(90%) of the precipitation falls during the rainy season which lasts from October through April.
The dry season (May through September) typically has regular intrusions of low clouds and fog.
As depicted in Figure 12, temperatures are quite moderate with the record high of 87°F in
October 1993, and a record low of 20°F in January 1888. (National Oceanic and Atmopsheric
Administration, 2024) The proximity to the Pacific Ocean results in a relatively small
temperature range. During a typical year, the average low temperature in December through
March is 41°F and the average high in June through October is 63°F. (National Oceanic and
Atmopsheric Administration, 2024)
Monthly Climate Normals - Eureka, CA
70
9
8
60
7
50
6
40
5
30
4
3
20
2
10
1
0
0
Total Precipitation Normal (inches)
Mean Max Temperature Normal (°F)
Mean Min Temperature Normal (°F)
Mean Avg Temperature Normal (°F)
Figure 12. Monthly Climate Normals – Eureka, CA.
During the warm season, typically from June to October, northerly winds prevail over the coastal
waters as a semi-permanent ridge dominates over the Eastern Pacific and a semi-permanent Heat
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Low develops over interior California. In the cool season, the North Coast periodically sees strong
southerly winds as East Pacific storms make landfall.
6.
Population/Demographics
While Trinidad Rancheria's total population is 280, an estimated 126 members are living in the
three tracts of homes – Main Parcel (43); Westhaven (28); McKinleyville (55). (United States
Census Bureau, 2024)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Senior citizens (65 years and over) comprise 19% of the Tribe’s population.
Approximately 20% of the Tribal population have disabilities and/or access and
functional needs.
Youth under 18 years of age comprise 19% of the Tribe’s population.
The average Trinidad Rancheria resident is 42 years of age.
Trinidad Rancheria is unique in its household and housing cross-section. One hundred
percent (100%) are family households. There is an average of 3.0 people per family.
An estimated 13% of tribal members over the age of 25 reported have a college degree,
(e.g. either an associate degree or higher).
7.
Economy
Trinidad Rancheria is emerging as an economically successful Tribe with business enterprises:
•
•
•
•
•
Heights Casino (includes a giftshop, Sunset Restaurant, and Sunrise Deli)
Seascape Pier
Seascape Restaurant
Seascape Vacation Rental
Trillium Rental
While exact economic values are available, they are either proprietary for enterprises or
confidential for the Trinidad Rancheria government itself. The total value of assets to be
replaced in the event of disaster is estimated at $65.1 million, which includes the Governmental
structure, Tribal homes and the Tribal enterprises. The loss of net revenues per day exceeds
$3,000 per day. There are approximately 175-200 staff depending on the season, and the loss in
wages is far greater at over $20,000 per day (Table 12).
Table 12. Economic Impact of Trinidad Rancheria Government and Enterprises.
Staff
Daily Payroll
Fixed Assets
Daily Net Revenue
200-250
$30,000+
$65.1M
$3,000+
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8.
Industry
a)
Government as Employer
The governing body of the Tribe (Community Council) consists of all duly enrolled, base roll,
and voting members. From the Community Council, a Tribal Council is elected. It is the duty of
the Tribal Council to govern all the people, resources, land, and water reserved to the Tribe in
accordance with the Trinidad Rancheria Constitution, such laws as adopted by the Tribal
Council, such limitations as may lawfully be imposed by the Tribal Council, and such limitations
as may be lawfully imposed by the statutes or the Constitution of the United States (Cher-Ae
Heights Indian Community of the Trinidad Rancheria, The People, The Land, and The Water,
Marine Life Protection Act Initiative Regional Profile, The Trinidad Traditional Fisheries
Coalition, April 6, 2010).
The Tribal Council consists of a Chairperson, Vice-Chairperson, Secretary/Treasurer and two (2)
additional members to serve as Tribal Council Members. Any Community Council member
(eighteen years of age or over) is eligible to serve on the Tribal Council if duly elected. The
Tribal Council meets twice a month.
The Tribal administrative office has more than 30 staff. The Trinidad Rancheria departments
include the following:
•
Tribal Council
•
Tribal Administration
o Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
o Executive Manager
o Natural Resources Department
o Finance and Accounting (Chief Financial Officer)
Deputy CFO
Payroll
Staff Accountant
•
Housing
•
Human Resources
•
Information Technology (IT) Department
•
Transportation and Land Use
o Emergency Services
•
•
Social Services
Tribal Court
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•
Tribal Programs
o Animal Control
o Cultural Resources
o Education
o Library
o Member Services
b)
Services
The Tribal Programs Department encompasses multiple program areas offered to tribal members
including, Member Intake, Social Services, Housing, Education, Cultural Resources, Tribal
Historic Preservation, Animal Control, Youth Program, and Wellness Program which includes
the Community Garden. The Rancheria’s Youth Program hosts seasonal programming that
provides cultural activities and fitness activities and facilitates community building. Advanced
educational programs are available at the College of the Redwoods, located south of Eureka, and
at California State Polytechnic University, Humboldt, in Arcata. Due to limited personal internet
access, many Tribal members rely upon the library for web access.
c)
Tourism and Recreation
All of Trinidad Rancheria’s economic enterprises are tourism-oriented, which includes The
Heights Casino, Sunset Restaurant, Seascape Restaurant, Seascape House, and Trinidad Harbor
operations - boat launching/moorage facilities in Trinidad Harbor that serve the Trinidad
recreational and commercial fishing fleet. The casino was established in 1988 and has grown to
be one of the major employers in Humboldt County with approximately 140 staff. Trinidad
Harbor Operations employs approximately people. The enterprises generate approximately
$3,000 per day in net revenue and account for much of the $20,000 per day in Tribal daily
payroll.
d)
Economic Development Projects
The Tribe has formed the Trinidad Rancheria Economic Development Corporation (TREDC) for
the purpose of Economic Development projects. The major thrust of the Rancheria’s economic
development plans is to continually improve the gaming, dining, and lodging experience at its
various tourist-serving facilities to keep them competitive and to enhance the Rancheria's
reputation as a leader in the local tourism industry. Furthermore, the 2011 Trinidad Rancheria
Comprehensive Community-Based Plan details the long-term goals for growth and improvement
of Trinidad Rancheria. This plan is written with consideration for the comprehensive plan. On
the Main Parcel, the Tribe intends to build a hotel with a convention center, a RV park, and a
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Mini mart/Gas Station. Plans for the expansion of the Trinidad Harbor operations include an
expanded gift shop and restaurant and a visitor-oriented incubator space focused on eco-tourism.
The incubator space is intended to preserve and grow native species for education, preservation,
and repopulation. With its expanded responsibility for Trinidad Harbor, the Tribe seeks to
expand its monitoring, testing, and treating activities to protect native species.
e)
Development History and Planning
As a community, Trinidad Rancheria strives to create a more sustainable way of life both locally
and globally through safeguarding and enhancing tribal resources and by preventing harm to the
environment and human health. The Tribe is resolved that their impact on the environment must
not jeopardize the prospects of future generations. The Goals of the Trinidad Rancheria
Comprehensive Community-Based Plan are in Section IV, “Plan Updates.”
f)
Tribal Council
In the future, formally established committee(s) or boards could be created with the authority to
review proposed projects. Until then, it is likely that the Tribal Council will be the body
responsible for reviewing and approving development projects.
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9.
Critical Facilities & Infrastructure
a)
Critical Facilities & Infrastructure:
Figure 13. Trinidad Rancheria Critical Infrastructure.
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Tribal Operations - Tribal Operations provide the full complement of services to Tribal
members as well as oversight of business enterprises. The facilities and personnel are essential
to Tribal operations. The library provides internet access to the many Tribal members who do
not have services at home.
Emergency Operations / Public Safety – The Emergency Operations Center shares a building
with the Department of Social Services, but there is no direct access between them. In addition,
non-congregate care apartments are located in the building.
Department of Social Services – The Emergency Operations Center shares a building with the
Department of Social Services, but there is no direct access between them. The Department of
Social Services also houses the Victim Support Center with physical security measures.
The Heights Casino - The casino is a major employer and funding resource for the Tribe.
Trinidad Harbor - The Trinidad Harbor is a critical facility not only for the Rancheria but
community as well. It includes the working pier which accommodates a small commercial crab
fleet as well as a boat launch for recreational fishermen.
Schools and Education - Children attend elementary and middle school in communities nearby
Trinidad and McKinleyville. Busing is provided for elementary school students; high school
students must commute to the McKinleyville High School. There is a library located in the youth
center which is located on Tribal property.
Water - Water on the Rancheria is provided by the City of Trinidad, and solid waste is collected
by a disposal company. All Rancheria households use on-site sewage disposal systems.
Highways - U.S. Highway-101 runs north-south on the east side of the Rancheria. Scenic Drive
provides access to the Rancheria from the Trinidad highway exit. The nearest commercial
airport is the Arcata/Eureka Airport located approximately 5 miles away in the town of
McKinleyville.
a. Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability is best defined as ‘open to attack, harm and/or damage’. The purpose of the
Vulnerability Assessment is to answer the question of “What could my community lose due to
the impact from this/these hazard(s)?”
For the Plan, the following tasks were performed as a part of the vulnerability assessment:
● Asset Inventory
● Potential Loss Estimations
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● Identifying Future Structures
● Development Trends Analysis
The following sections summarize the Team efforts to assemble and analyze the data needed for
the vulnerability assessment and to present the results of the vulnerability analysis.
b. Asset Inventory
Table 13 is a summary of critical infrastructure and Table 14 is a summary of Tribal housing.
Actual values are available on request from the Tribe
Table 13. Trinidad Rancheria Critical Infrastructure.
Parcel
Facility / Assets / Liabilities
Main Parcel
Tribal Office
Library
Maintenance Facility
Social Services
Storage Building & Equipment
Records Building
Trinidad Harbor
Seascape House
Public Restrooms
Gift Shop
Boat Launch Facilities
Pier
Seascape Restaurant
Water Treatment Facility
Other
Fine Arts
Seascape Payroll
Rental Home
The Heights Casino & Sunset Restaurant
Water Treatment Facility
The Heights Casino
The Heights Casino and Restaurant Payroll
Parcel
Main Parcel
Westhaven Parcel
McKinleyville Parcel
Total
Table 14. Trinidad Rancheria Homes.
Homes
18
11 (2 trailers)
15
44
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c. Loss Estimations
Economic loss estimates are provided in each hazard profile. The vulnerability is based on the
threat posed by each hazard and the 2024 insured value. Because Trinidad Rancheria is such a
small portion of the census tract, neither Hazus®-MH nor the National Risk Index assessments
were used.
10.
Identifying Future Structures
a) Development Trend Analysis
In the past, the development within the Trinidad Rancheria boundaries was considered on a caseby-case basis by the Tribal Council.
b) Economic Development Projects
Trinidad Rancheria currently has economic development projects that include the following.
•
Hotel on the Main Parcel.
•
Gas Station on the Main Parcel.
•
Interpretive center at Trinidad Harbor.
c) Housing Development Projects
In 2025, the Westhaven Parcel will add two trailers. Within the lifespan of this Pla, the Tribe
will add 10-12 homes on the McKinleyville Parcel.
d) Development History and Planning
As a community, Trinidad Rancheria desires to foster a sustainable way of life both locally and
globally through safeguarding and enhancing tribal resources and by preventing harm to the
environment and human health. The Tribe is resolved that their impact on the environment must
not jeopardize the prospects of future generations.
e) Tribal Council
In the future, formally established committee(s) or boards could be created with the authority to
review proposed projects. Until then, it is likely that the Tribal Council will be the body responsible
for reviewing and approving development projects.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
B. Identified Hazards of Concern
1.
Hazard Selection
Element
B1. Does the plan include a description
of the type, location, and extent of all
natural hazards that can affect the Tribal
planning area?
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(2)(i)
Intent: To understand the natural
hazards affecting the Tribal planning
area in order to identify which hazard
risks are most significant and which
locations are most adversely affected.
Requirements
a.
The plan shall include a description of the Tribal
planning area (See footnote 6 on page 7).
b.
The plan shall include a description of the natural
hazards that can affect the Tribal planning area.
(Note: There is no requirement to include
manmade hazards in the mitigation plan. FEMA
will not require removal of this information, but if
these hazards are included, they will not be
reviewed to meet the requirements).
c.
The plan shall provide the rationale for the
omission of any natural hazards that are
commonly recognized to affect the Tribal
planning area.
d.
The description shall include information on the
location and the extent of each identified hazard.
Location means the geographic areas in the Tribal
planning area that are affected by the hazard. For
many hazards, maps are the best way to illustrate
location. However, location may be described in
other formats. For example, if a geographicallyspecific location cannot be identified for a hazard,
such as tornadoes, the plan may state that the entire
Tribal planning area is equally at risk to that
hazard.
Extent means the strength or magnitude of the
hazard. For example, extent could be described in
terms of the specific measurement of an occurrence
based on a scientific scale (e.g., Enhanced Fujita
Scale, Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, Richter
Scale, flood depth grids) and/or other hazard
factors, such as the duration and/or speed of onset.
Extent is not the same as impacts, which are
described in sub-element B3.
Element
B2. Does the plan include information
on previous occurrences of hazard
events and on the probability of future
hazard events for the Tribal planning
area?
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(2)(i)
Intent: To understand potential impacts
to the Tribal planning area based on
information on the hazard events that
a.
b.
Requirements
The plan shall include the history of previous
events for each of the identified hazards.
The plan shall include the probability of future
events for each identified hazard. Probability
must include considerations of future conditions,
including the effects of long-term changes in
weather patterns on identified hazards.
Probability may be defined in terms of general
descriptors (for example, unlikely, likely, highly
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Element
have occurred in the past and the
likelihood that those will occur in the
future.
Requirements
likely), historical frequencies, statistical
probabilities (for example a 1-percent chance of
occurring within any given year), and/or hazard
probability maps.
If general descriptors are used, then they shall be
defined in the plan. For example, “highly likely”
could be defined as equal to or near 100 percent
chance of occurring next year or happens every
year.
Probability of future events and
considerations of changing future conditions
may be described using qualitative and/or
quantitative information:
● Qualitative information (e.g., transcribed oral
history) about changing weather patterns and
potential effects on identified hazards.
● Quantitative information that describes
predicted changes in temperature and
precipitation and potential effects on
identified hazards.
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Element
B3. Does the plan include a description
of [each] identified hazard’s impact, as
well as an overall summary of the
vulnerability of the Tribal planning
area?
a.
Requirements
The plan shall describe the potential impacts
of each of the identified hazards on the Tribal
planning area.
Impact means the consequence or effect of the
hazard on the Tribal government and its assets.
Assets are determined by the Tribal government and
may include, for example, people, structures,
facilities, systems, and populations that are
susceptible to damage and loss from hazard events.
Assets may also include cultural sites, sacred sites,
capabilities and/or activities that have value to the
Tribal government. Impacts could be described by
referencing historical disaster impacts and/or an
estimate of potential future losses (such as percent
damage of total exposure).
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(2)(ii)
Intent: For the Tribal government to
consider their Tribal planning area as a
whole and analyze the potential impacts
of future hazard events and the
vulnerabilities that could be reduced
through hazard mitigation actions.
b.
The plan shall provide an overall summary of the
vulnerability of the Tribal planning area to the
identified hazards. An overall summary of
vulnerability identifies structures, systems,
populations, and other assets as defined by the
Tribal government.
Vulnerable assets and potential losses are more
than a list of the total exposure of population,
structures, and critical facilities in the Tribal
planning area. An example of an overall summary
is a list of key issues or problem statements that
clearly describes the Tribal government’s greatest
vulnerabilities that will be addressed in the
mitigation strategy.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
a) Hazard Selection Process
Step 1: Identify and Screen Hazards
To take a more wholistic approach to its risk management, Trinidad Rancheria is including the
three categories of hazards and threats defined by the National Preparedness Goal:
•
Natural hazards, which result from acts of nature, such as hurricanes, earthquakes,
tornadoes, animal disease outbreak, pandemics, or epidemics.
•
Technological hazards, which result from accidents or the failures of systems and
structures, such as hazardous materials spills or dam failures.
•
Human-caused incidents, which result from the intentional actions of an adversary, such
as a threatened or actual chemical attack, biological attack, active shooter, or cyber
incident.
While technological hazards and human-caused threats are optional and not evaluated by FEMA
as a part of Tribal Hazard Mitigation Planning reviews, Trinidad Rancheria is including them in
its Hazard Mitigation Plan to better integrate the HMP with all elements of the National
Preparedness System such as the Tribe Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
(THIRA) and Stakeholder Preparedness Review (SPR) as shown in Figure 4.
Step 2: Profile Hazards
Hazards are profiled according to the following format in each respective section:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
General hazard description
Location
Extent
Previous Occurrences on Trinidad Rancheria
Probability of Future Events on Trinidad Rancheria
Vulnerability of Trinidad Rancheria
Impact on Trinidad Rancheria
Impact of Climate Change
Step 3: Identify Assets
Assets are defined as population, buildings, critical facilities and infrastructures, economic
resources, and cultural and environmental resources that may be affected by hazard events.
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Step 4:
Assess Vulnerabilities
A vulnerability analysis predicts the extent of exposure that may result from a hazard event of a
given intensity in a given area. The assessment provides quantitative data that may be used to
identify and prioritize potential mitigation measures by allowing the Rancheria to focus attention
on areas with the greatest risk of damage.
Step 5: Analyze Potential Losses
The final stage of the risk assessment process provides a general overview of vulnerable
populations, structures, critical facilities, and resources in hazardous areas. This information
provides groundwork for decisions about where the mitigation strategies would be most
effective.
b) Social Vulnerability
To maximize standardization across the nation, Douglas County is incorporating FEMA’s
National Risk Index, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Social Vulnerability
Index (SVI) and associated Social Vulnerability Themes. Figures 14-18 show the overall census
tract-level Social Vulnerability Index and the four Social Vulnerability Themes –
Socioeconomic, Household Composition/Disability, Minority/Language, and
Housing/Transportation. In general, darker colors represent higher (worse) vulnerability. The
County can use the SVI maps to help determine how it might prioritize mitigation and
preparedness projects. “Social Vulnerability refers to the resilience of communities (the ability
to survive and thrive) when confronted by external stresses on human health, stresses such as
natural or human-caused disasters or disease outbreaks. Reducing social vulnerability can
decrease both human suffering and economic loss.” (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
2022) The overall Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) is based on four (4) themes:
•
“Socioeconomic status (below 150% poverty, unemployed, housing cost burden, no high
school diploma, no health insurance)
•
Household characteristics (aged 65 or older, aged 17 or younger, civilian with a
disability, single-parent households, English language proficiency)
•
Racial and ethnic minority status (Hispanic or Latino (of any race); Black and African
American, Not Hispanic or Latino; American Indian and Alaska Native, Not Hispanic or
Latino; Asian, Not Hispanic or Latino; Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, Not
Hispanic or Latino; Two or More Races, Not Hispanic or Latino; Other Races, Not
Hispanic or Latino)
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
•
Housing type & transportation (multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no
vehicle, group quarters)” (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022)
*Note. This Plan uses FEMA’s National Risk Index to conduct hazard profile assessments. The
National Risk Index incorporates social vulnerability in each hazard analysis. The overall
National Risk Index Score is a function of:
•
Expected Annual Loss
•
Social Vulnerability
•
Community Resilience
Overall Social Vulnerability Index
As can be seen in Figures 14-18, Trinidad Rancheria is a small segment of U.S. Census tracts
that make up Humboldt County. As such, the Social Vulnerability Index assessments provide a
context for the region(s) that encompass Trinidad Rancheria. It is important to note that Trinidad
Rancheria itself is a small and impoverished community and represents the most socially
vulnerable segment of many the maps in Figures (14-18).
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Figure 14. CDC Social Vulnerability Index (2022): Overall SVI.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Social Vulnerability Index – Socioeconomic Theme
Figure 15 depicts the SVI Socioeconomic theme. As a small and impoverished community,
Trinidad Rancheria is among the most vulnerable communities. Given the affluent nature of
residents in the Town of Trinidad, the overall census tract assessment likely does not represent
the Rancheria as a whole. The factors that determine the SVI Socioeconomic theme reflects the
following population characteristics:
•
Below 150%
poverty
•
Unemployed
•
Housing cost
burden
•
No high school
diploma
•
No health
insurance
Figure 15. CDC Social Vulnerability Index (2022): Socioeconomic.
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Social Vulnerability Index – Household Composition / Disability Theme
Figure 16 depicts the SVI Household Composition/Disability theme. The factors that determine
the SVI Socioeconomic theme reflects the following population characteristics:
•
Aged 65 or older
•
Aged 17 or younger
•
Civilian with a
disability
•
Single-parent
households
•
English language
proficiency
Figure 16. CDC Social Vulnerability Index (2022):
Household Composition / Disability Theme.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Social Vulnerability Index – Racial / Ethnic Minority Theme
Figure 17 depicts the SVI Household Minority/Language theme. Again, the low level of
vulnerability based on the ethnic makeup of households likely does not represent the Tribe,
which would have 100% of households with American Indians. The factors that determine the
SVI Household Minority/Language theme reflects the various minorities in the U.S. Census:
•
Hispanic or Latino (of any
race)
•
Black and African
American, Not Hispanic
or Latino
•
American Indian and
Alaska Native, Not
Hispanic or Latino
•
Asian, Not Hispanic or
Latino
•
Native Hawaiian and
Other Pacific Islander,
Not Hispanic or Latino
•
Two or More Races, Not
Hispanic or Latino
•
Other Races, Not
Hispanic or Latino
Figure 17. CDC Social Vulnerability Index (2022):
Household Minority / Language Theme.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Social Vulnerability Index – Housing / Transportation Theme
Figure 18 is the SVI Housing/Transportation Theme and is the one which is most representative
of the Rancheria. The factors that determine the SVI Housing/Transportation theme reflects the
following population characteristics:
•
Multi-unit structures
•
Mobile homes
•
Crowding
•
No vehicle
•
Group quarters
Figure 18. CDC Social Vulnerability Index (2022): Housing /
Transportation Theme.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Although Trinidad Rancheria likely varied from the surrounding census tracts, it is instructive to
use them in analysis to see the context of the greater community that the Rancheria lies in. With
the exception of racial and language diversity, the surrounding census tracts have 50% - 75% of
the population vulnerable across the various SVI themes. Given that Trinidad Rancheria would
be even more socially vulnerable than the census tracts indicate how much assistance the
Rancheria needs.
Again, the risk equation behind the National Risk Index includes social vulnerability and
community resilience factors. In addition, the expected annual loss (EAL) also has vulnerability
built in (NRI Exposure) in developing the consequences of each hazard. Therefore, every hazard
profile that includes NRI information incorporates social vulnerability.
c) Presidential Disaster Declarations
Humboldt County has received 27 Presidential Disaster Declarations. As depicted in Figure 19,
floods and severe storms are overwhelming the most common natural disasters.
Figure 19. Humboldt County Presidential Disaster Declarations by Type.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Figure 20 clearly highlights that the storms of the winter and early spring seasons represent the
greatest risk to the Rancheria.
Presidential Disaster Declarations by Month
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Biological
Coastal Storm
Earthquake
Fishing Losses
Flood
Hurricane
Severe Storm
Wildfire
Figure 20. Humboldt County Presidential Disaster Declarations by Month.
Table 15 lists the FEMA Federal disaster declarations, including financial assistance, for
Humboldt County. While the total FEMA assistance includes all designated areas (not just
Humboldt County), the amount of financial assistance indicates the magnitude of the impact of
the disasters.
Table 15. Humboldt County Presidential Disaster Declarations & FEMA Financial
Assistance.
Disaster
Disaster
Dates
Total FEMA Assistance ($)**
Type
Declaration*
DR-183-CA
December 24, 1964
Flood
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
Flood
DR-212-CA
January 22, 1966
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
Flood
DR-253-CA
January 26, 1969
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
Flood
DR-329-CA
April 5, 1972
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Table 15. Humboldt County Presidential Disaster Declarations & FEMA Financial
Assistance.
Disaster
Disaster
Dates
Total FEMA Assistance ($)**
Type
Declaration*
Flood
DR-412-CA
January 25, 1974
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
Flood
DR-651-CA
Coastal
Storm
DR-677-CA
Flood
December 19,
1981 - January 8,
1983
January 21, 1983 –
March 30, 1983
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
DR-758-CA
February 12, 1986
- March 10, 1986
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
Earthquake
DR-943-CA
April 25, 1992 –
May 4, 1992
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
Flood
DR-979-CA
January 5, 1993 March 20, 1993
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
Fishing
Losses
DR-1038-CA
May 1, 1994 –
October 31, 1994
IA – N/A
PA – unknown
Severe
Storm
DR-1044-CA
January 3, 1995 –
January 10, 1995
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
Severe
Storm
DR-1046-CA
February 13, 1995
– April 19, 1995
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
Severe
Storm
DR-1155-CA
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
Severe
Storm
DR-1203-CA
December 28,
1996 – January 4,
1997
February 2, 1988 –
April 30, 1998
Fire
EM-3140-CA
August 24, 1999 –
November 29,
1999
Hurricane
EM-3248-CA
August 29, 2005 –
October 1, 2005
Severe
Storm
DR-1628-CA
December 17,
2005 -January 3,
2006
IA – N/A
PA
• PA (Categories A-B):
$50,716,251.84
• PA (Categories C-G): $12,517.79
IA – N/A
PA
• PA (Category B): $881,982.66
IA – N/A (Humboldt County)
PA
• PA (Categories A-B):
$29,679,229.24
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
IA – unknown
PA – unknown
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Table 15. Humboldt County Presidential Disaster Declarations & FEMA Financial
Assistance.
Disaster
Disaster
Dates
Total FEMA Assistance ($)**
Type
Declaration*
• PA (Categories C-G):
$117,640,624.50
HMGP: N/A
Severe
DR-4301-CA
IA – N/A
Storm
PA
• PA (Categories A-B):
$23,067,920.97
• PA (Categories C-G):
$105,573,045.80
HMGP: $22,708,199.94
Flood
DR-4308-CA February 1, 2017 - IA – N/A
February 23, 2017 PA
• PA (Categories A-B):
$151,794,535.62
• PA (Categories C-G):
$272,635,923.77
HMGP: $15,012,050.80
Severe
DR-4434-CA February 24, 2019 IA – N/A
Storm
– March 1, 2019
PA
• PA (Categories A-B):
$7,828,033.81
• PA (Categories C-G):
$18,570,020.27
HMGP: $4,947,792.08
Biological
EM-3428-CA January 20, 2020 – IA – N/A
May 11, 2023
PA
• PA (Category B): $8,313,848.34
HMGP: N/A
Biological
DR-4482-CA January 20, 2020 – IA
May 11, 2023
• Other Needs Assistance (ONA):
$244,647,382.22
PA
• PA (Category B):
$9,700,067,817.72
• PA (Categories C-G): N/A
HMGP: $74,335,415.48
Flood
EM-3591-CA January 8, 2023 IA – N/A
January 31, 2023
PA
• PA (Category A): N/A
• PA (Category B): unknown
• PA (Categories C-G): N/A
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Table 15. Humboldt County Presidential Disaster Declarations & FEMA Financial
Assistance.
Disaster
Disaster
Dates
Total FEMA Assistance ($)**
Type
Declaration*
HMGP: N/A
Flood
DR-4683-CA
Dec 27, 2022 - Jan
31, 2023
Flood
EM-3592-CA
March 9, 2023 –
July 10, 2023
Severe
Storm
DR-4699-CA
February 21, 2023 –
July 10, 2023
*Types of disaster declarations
IA – N/A
PA
• PA (Categories A-B):
$50,624,153.98
• PA (Categories C-G):
$34,630,876.55
HMGP: $16,966,039.17
IA – N/A
PA
• PA (Category A): N/A
• PA (Category B): unknown
• PA (Categories C-G): N/A
HMGP: N/A
IA – N/A (Humboldt)
PA
• PA (Categories A-B):
$18,091,653.37
• PA (Categories C-G):
$14,124,227.92
HMGP: $4,121,352.89
● EM (Emergency Declaration): “Emergency Declarations, an incident is any instance that
the President determines warrants supplemental emergency assistance to save lives and
protect property and public health and safety, or to lessen or avert the threat of a
catastrophe.” (Federal Emergency Management Agency 2020)
● DR (Major Disaster Declaration): “For Major Disaster Declarations, an incident is any
natural catastrophe (including any hurricane, tornado, storm, high water, wind driven
water, tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, mudslide,
snowstorm, or drought), or, regardless of cause, any fire, flood, or explosion. Major
Disaster Declarations may include a combination of incident types, such as storms and
landslides.” (Federal Emergency Management Agency 2020)
** Public Assistance - Dollars Obligated: Funds made available to the State/Tribe via electronic
transfer following FEMA's final review and approval of Public Assistance projects.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
This plan focuses on the impact of hazards specifically as they relate to Trinidad Rancheria
members, its property, and its assets. The analysis for each hazard follows the following format:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
General hazard description
Location
Extent
Previous Occurrences on Trinidad Rancheria
Probability of Future Events on Trinidad Rancheria
Vulnerability of Trinidad Rancheria
Impact on Trinidad Rancheria
Impact of Climate Change
2.
Risk Assessment Factors
Per FEMA’s Tribal Mitigation Planning Handbook, the analysis factors that are used to compare
the hazards and threats are location, extent, previous occurrences, and probability of occurrence.
(Federal Emergency Management Agency 2019) In order to quantify the whole community’s
assessment for the threats and hazards of concern, the planning team used location, extent,
probability of occurrence, and general concern for each threat and hazard as described in this
section.
a) Location
•
Extensive: 50% or more of tribal land/assets affected
•
Moderate: 25%-50% of tribal land/assets affected
•
Limited: 25% or less of tribal land/assets affected
b) Extent
The magnitude of the hazard (Richter Scale, tsunami height, etc.)
•
Catastrophic:
o Severe property damages (greater than 50% of critical and non-critical facilities
and infrastructure).
o Injuries or illnesses result in permanent disability and multiple deaths.
o Overwhelming damage requires Federal assistance and requires months to years
to recover.
•
Critical:
o Moderate property damages (greater than 25% and less than 50% of critical and
non-critical facilities and infrastructure).
o Injuries or illnesses result in permanent disability and at least one death.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
•
o Shut down of critical facilities for more than 1 week and less than 1 month.
Limited:
o Slight property damages (greater than 5% and less than 25% of critical and noncritical facilities and infrastructure).
o Injuries or illnesses do not result in permanent disability and there are no deaths.
o Moderate quality of life lost.
o Shut down of critical facilities for more than 1 day and less than 1 week.
•
Negligible:
o Negligible property damages (less than 5% of critical and non-critical facilities
and infrastructure). Injuries or illnesses are treatable with first aid and there are
no deaths.
o Negligible quality of life lost. Shut down of critical facilities for less than 24
hours.
c) Probability of Occurrence
•
Highly Likely: Frequent events with a well-documented history of occurrence. Annual
probability that is greater than 10%.
•
Likely: Between Occasional occurrences with at least two or more documented historic
events. Annual probability that is between 10% and 1%.
•
Possibly: Rare occurrences with at least one documented or anecdotal historic event.
Annual probability that is between 1% and .1%.
•
Unlikely: Extremely rare with no documented history of occurrences or events. Annual
probability of less than .1%.
d) Level of Concern
•
Very High: Keeps people up at night.
•
High: Of great concern.
•
Moderate: General concern.
•
Low: On people’s radar but they are not particularly worried.
•
Very Low: Not worth addressing.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
The results from the survey and workshop participants using each of the definitions were given
numerical factors based on the weight values in Table 16.
Table 16: Threat and Hazard Scoring Methodology.
Location
Description Weight
Extent
Description
Weight
Extensive
3
Catastrophic
4
Moderate
Limited
2
1
Critical
Limited
Negligible
3
2
1
Probability
Description Weight
Highly
Likely
Likely
Possibly
Unlikely
Concern
Description Weight
4
Very High
5
3
2
1
High
Moderate
Low
Very Low
4
3
2
1
The results for each assessment category were summed to arrive at a total score for each
threat/hazard. The hazard identification and risk assessment resulted in the prioritized natural
hazards of most concern shown in Table 17, Technological hazards of concern in Table 18, and
human-caused threats of concern in Table 19.
Table 17. Natural Hazards of Greatest Concern.
Threat/Hazard
Location Extent
Probability Concern Sum
Rank
Landslide
42
53
56
63
214
1
Coastline Erosion 42
47
57
62
208
2
Earthquake
43
51
55
57
206
3
Severe Winter
Storms
41
49
54
61
205
4
Tsunami
33
43
42
49
167
5
Sea Level Rise
32
40
43
46
161
6
Wildfires
32
38
38
45
153
7
Epidemic
37
38
38
35
148
8
Marine Animal
Disease
32
36
38
42
148
9
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Table 17. Natural Hazards of Greatest Concern.
Threat/Hazard
Location Extent
Probability Concern Sum
Rank
Drought
30
32
41
40
143
10
Flood
27
34
39
40
140
11
Smoke
30
29
40
39
138
12
Land Animal
Disease
19
23
29
27
98
13
Table 18: Trinidad Rancheria’s Technological Hazards of Greatest Concern.
Hazard
Location Extent
Probability
Concern Sum Rank
Power Failure
39
48
56
57
200
1
HAZMAT Release - 35
44
44
54
177
2
Marine
Structure Fire
33
42
34
47
156
3
Transportation
25
37
43
47
152
4
Accident
HAZMAT Release - 27
40
35
45
147
5
Land
Table 19: Trinidad Rancheria’s Human-Caused Threats of Greatest Concern.
Threat/Hazard
Location Extent
Probability
Concern
Sum Rank
Armed Assault
27
46
38
62
173
1
Cyberattack (data) 35
42
36
58
171
2
Cyberattack
34
45
34
58
171
3
(Infrastructure)
Sabotage
29
41
30
49
149
4
Biological Attack
20
41
41
39
141
5
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
C. Natural Hazard Analysis
Element
B1. Does the plan include a description
of the type, location, and extent of all
natural hazards that can affect the Tribal
planning area?
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(2)(i)
Intent: To understand the natural
hazards affecting the Tribal planning
area in order to identify which hazard
risks are most significant and which
locations are most adversely affected.
Requirements
e.
The plan shall include a description of the Tribal
planning area (See footnote 6 on page 7).
f.
The plan shall include a description of the natural
hazards that can affect the Tribal planning area.
(Note: There is no requirement to include
manmade hazards in the mitigation plan. FEMA
will not require removal of this information, but if
these hazards are included, they will not be
reviewed to meet the requirements).
g.
The plan shall provide the rationale for the
omission of any natural hazards that are
commonly recognized to affect the Tribal
planning area.
h.
The description shall include information on the
location and the extent of each identified hazard.
Location means the geographic areas in the Tribal
planning area that are affected by the hazard. For
many hazards, maps are the best way to illustrate
location. However, location may be described in
other formats. For example, if a geographicallyspecific location cannot be identified for a hazard,
such as tornadoes, the plan may state that the entire
tribal planning area is equally at risk to that hazard.
Extent means the strength or magnitude of the
hazard. For example, extent could be described in
terms of the specific measurement of an occurrence
based on a scientific scale (e.g., Enhanced Fujita
Scale, Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, Richter
Scale, flood depth grids) and/or other hazard
factors, such as the duration and/or speed of onset.
Extent is not the same as impacts, which are
described in sub-element B3.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Element
B2. Does the plan include information
on previous occurrences of hazard
events and on the probability of future
hazard events for the Tribal planning
area?
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(2)(i)
Intent: To understand potential impacts
to the Tribal planning area based on
information on the hazard events that
have occurred in the past and the
likelihood of those will occur in the
future.
c.
d.
Requirements
The plan shall include the history of previous
events for each of the identified hazards.
The plan shall include the probability of future
events for each identified hazard. Probability
must include considerations of future conditions,
including the effects of long-term changes in
weather patterns on identified hazards.
Probability may be defined in terms of general
descriptors (for example, unlikely, likely, highly
likely), historical frequencies, statistical
probabilities (for example a 1-percent chance of
occurring within any given year), and/or hazard
probability maps.
If general descriptors are used, then they shall be
defined in the plan. For example, “highly likely”
could be defined as equal to or near 100 percent
chance of occurring next year or happens every
year.
Probability of future events and
considerations of changing future conditions
may be described using qualitative and/or
quantitative information:
● Qualitative information (e.g., transcribed oral
history) about changing weather patterns and
potential effects on identified hazards.
● Quantitative information that describes
predicted changes in temperature and
precipitation and potential effects on
identified hazards.
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Section II: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
Element
B3. Does the plan include a description
of [each] identified hazard’s impact, as
well as an overall summary of the
vulnerability of the Tribal planning
area?
c.
Requirements
The plan shall describe the potential impacts
of each of the identified hazards on the Tribal
planning area.
Impact means the consequence or effect of the
hazard on the Tribal government and its assets.
Assets are determined by the Tribal government and
may include, for example, people, structures,
facilities, systems, and populations that are
susceptible to damage and loss from hazard events.
Assets may also include cultural sites, sacred sites,
capabilities and/or activities that have value to the
Tribal government. Impacts could be described by
referencing historical disaster impacts and/or an
estimate of potential future losses (such as percent
damage of total exposure).
44 CFR § 201.7(c)(2)(ii)
Intent: For the Tribal government to
consider their Tribal planning area as a
whole and analyze the potential impacts
of future hazard events and the
vulnerabilities that could be reduced
through hazard mitigation actions.
d.
The plan shall provide an overall summary of the
vulnerability of the Tribal planning area to the
identified hazards. An overall summary of
vulnerability identifies structures, systems,
populations, and other assets as defined by the
Tribal government.
Vulnerable assets and potential losses are more
than a list of the total exposure of population,
structures, and critical facilities
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