Study of State Costs and Benefits Associated With Repeal of the National Maximum Speed Limit (NMSL)

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

Federal Highway Administration

[Docket No. 96-047-NO2]

Study of State Costs and Benefits Associated With Repeal of the

National Maximum Speed Limit (NMSL)

AGENCY: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and

Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Department of Transportation

(DOT).

ACTION: Final notice announcing NHTSA/FHWA plan to conduct a study of

State costs and benefits associated with the NMSL repeal, as required

by Section 347 of the National Highway System (NHS) Designation Act

(Pub. L. 104-59).

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SUMMARY: This notice is being issued to announce NHTSA's and FHWA's

plan to conduct the study (hereinafter referred to as the ``NHS Act

study'') of the State costs and benefits associated with repeal of the

National Maximum Speed Limit (NMSL), as required by the National

Highway System (NHS) Designation Act (Pub. L. 104-59). NHTSA and FHWA

(hereinafter referred to as ``the agencies'') published a notice in the

Federal Register (61 FR 31212) on June 19, 1996, inviting comments,

suggestions, and recommendations from State highway and traffic safety

officials, highway safety organizations, researchers, and others on the

agencies' proposed strategy for conducting the NHS Act study. The

proposed strategy, as described in the initial notice, included a draft

study outline, the minimum requirements for specific data from the

States that have raised their speed limits, and a proposed schedule for

completing the NHS Act study in order to meet the September 30, 1997,

deadline established by Section 347 of the Act. This notice summarizes

comments from the States and others on the proposed NHS Act Study and

outlines the agencies' plan to meet the legislative requirement, in

view of the concerns noted by the States.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: In NHTSA, Delmas Johnson, National

Center for Statistics and Analysis, Telephone 202/366-5382, Fax 202/

366-7078, Internet address is [email protected]. In FHWA, Suzanne

Stack, Office of Highway Safety, Telephone 202/366-2620, Fax 202/366-

2249, Internet address is [email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The National Maximum Speed Limit (NMSL),

enacted by the Congress during the Arab oil embargo of 1973 to conserve

fuel, was initially set at 55 miles per hour (MPH). By March 1974, all

States were in compliance with the NMSL. The Congress later passed

legislation to make the NMSL permanent and to require the States to

certify that the NMSL was being enforced. Congress also passed

legislation requiring that a study of the benefits of the NMSL be

undertaken. The National Academy of Sciences' Transportation Research

Board (TRB) conducted this study and in 1984, published its special

report, 55: A Decade of Experience.1 The TRB study, while one of

the most thorough and extensive examinations of this important safety

issue, recognized the inherent difficulties associated with attempts to

accurately estimate the safety, economic, and energy benefits of the

NMSL. Even with these difficulties, the TRB study concluded that many

lives and taxpayer dollars were saved each year with the NMSL. The TRB

study also recognized several unresolved issues, including whether the

control of the speed limit is a state or Federal responsibility.

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\1\ 55: A Decade of Experience, TRB Special Report 204, National

Research Council, Washington DC, 1984.

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In 1987, Congress passed legislation granting the states the

authority to raise the speed limit to no more than 65 MPH on the rural

Interstate system and certain rural freeways. By 1988, forty states had

raised limits on rural Interstates to 65 MPH, bringing approximately 90

percent of the 34,000 rural Interstate mileage to 65 MPH. In 1995, the

National Highway System Designation Act (hereinafter referred to as

``the NHS Act'', Pub. L. 104-59) was passed, establishing the National

Highway System and eliminating the Federal mandate for the NMSL.

Section 347 of the NHS Act required the Secretary of Transportation to

study the impact of actions to raise speed limits above 55/65 MPH, ``in

cooperation with any State which raises any speed limit in such State

to a level above the level permitted under section 154 of title 23,

United States Code * * * '', due September 30, 1997.

The agencies proposed a strategy for meeting the study

requirements, as stated in Section 347 of the Act, in the initial

Federal Register (61 FR 31212) notice, published on June 19, 1996. The

proposed strategy emphasized cooperation between the agencies and the

States that have increased their speed limits, as stated in the

legislation, for preparation of the study, along with a proposed

schedule for completing the NHS Act study. The agencies recognized in

the initial notice that the proposed NHS Act study outline, while

comprehensive in addressing the costs and benefits of increased speed

limits, posed difficulties based on the proposed schedule, particularly

in terms of data availability. The initial notice requested comments on

the reasonableness of the proposed draft study outline, the feasibility

of the proposed schedule, and the availability of state specific data.

This notice summarizes the comments received addressing the issues

raised in the initial notice and describes the agencies' plan to meet

the legislative requirement in view of the concerns identified in the

comments.

Summary of Comments

A total of 39 official comments to the docket were received from

State agencies, private citizens, National Motorists Association (NMA)

members, and others. Nineteen (19) States were represented in the

official docket comments. Eighteen (18) of the 19 States commenting to

the docket have increased limits since the NMSL was repealed or are

planning to do so. Many of the comments from the States included

concerns regarding the complexity and/or comprehensiveness of the

agencies' proposed study outline, often in terms of the burden that

would be placed upon the States. Many of the

[[Page 60739]]

States commented regarding the unavailability of data and the apparent

difficulty in meeting the proposed schedule. Comments from private

citizens generally supported the repeal of the NMSL, with one

exception. Several NMA members and officials commented, expressing

views supporting the NMSL repeal and criticizing the proposed study

outline. Comments were also received from the National Association of

Governor's Highway Safety Representatives (NAGHSR), the Advocates for

Highway and Auto Safety (AHAS), the American Trucking Association

(ATA), and a consulting firm, JCW Consulting.

Cooperation and participation from the States with increased speed

limits is critical to conducting the NHS Act study, as described in

Section 347 of the Act. The States commenting to the docket recognized

this critical issue and generally commented in three specific areas:

Study Methodology, Data Availability, and Scheduling.

1. Study Methodology

While some of the States submitting comments to the docket

indicated that the proposed approach was ``* * * solid'' or ``* * *

reasonable'', most commented that the approach was too ambitious. The

States also expressed concerns, however, that the approach was too

broad, posed an additional burden, and would be difficult to accomplish

due to the unavailability of data. NAGHSR commented that the proposed

approach is reasonable ``* * * only if all states' data were available

* * *'' AHAS commented that while the proposed approach was

appropriate, ``. . . reliance on state analyses and failure to consider

other . . . issues'' were important concerns.

2. Data Availability

The issue of data availability was addressed to some extent in all

of the comments received from the States, along with some of the

comments from private citizens and JCW Consulting. All of the States

submitting comments to the docket expressed concerns related to the

unavailability of data to meet the proposed NHS Act study outline.

Among the reasons cited for lack of available data were: specific data

not presently collected by the states, e.g., speed monitoring, medical

costs related to crash injuries; not possible to provide data in time

to meet the proposed schedule; lack of resources; data currently

collected inadequate for determining benefits and costs specifically

related to increased speeds. Some States suggested that the agencies

develop standards for estimating benefits and costs, particularly in

the absence of specific state data collection efforts.

3. Scheduling

The States commenting to the docket consistently voiced the concern

that the proposed schedule was ambitious, unreasonable, impossible, or

unrealistic. One State suggested extending the proposed schedule one

year past the September 30, 1997, deadline to avoid creating a

``second-rate report.'' Three of the 18 States commenting to the docket

indicated that plans existed to study the impact of increased speed

limits in their respective State. However, all three States indicated

that results from such studies would not be available in time to submit

to the agencies for inclusion in the NHS Act Study. A concern regarding

the before and after time frame of one year, as specified in Section

347 of the Act, was also expressed by several States and the ATA. ATA

suggested that the agencies use a ten year baseline for conducting the

study. Many of the States commented that one year of data after the

increased limits became effective may not be adequate for analysis to

determine impact. This issue is further complicated in that only nine

States (Arizona, California, Illinois, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada,

Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Wyoming) may have had increased speed

limits in place for at least nine months of calendar year 1996. This

would mean, at best, that only one calendar year of data for the time

frame after the increased speed limit was in place would be available

for these nine States. States with increased speed limits becoming

effective later in 1996, therefore, would not have one full year of

final data to forward to the agencies prior to the report due date of

September 30, 1997.

Analytical Challenges

Due to the concerns expressed by the States and others in the areas

of study methodology, data availability, and scheduling, the agencies

are faced with several major analytical challenges to conducting the

NHS Act study. Several of the States specifically indicated that

certain types of data, e.g., decreased travel time, increased fuel

consumption, and increased or decreased medical costs, would not be

available in time for inclusion in the report or was not presently

being collected. Without this type of information from the States, it

will be difficult for the agencies to address the entire range of

benefits due to increased speed limits in the NHS Act study. The issue

of data availability is further complicated in that many States are

selectively increasing speed limits on certain road segments and/or

roadway types, e.g., 4-lane roads, rather than systemwide, e.g., all

Interstates. While the selective application of increased speed limits

is indicative of the cautiousness on the part of many States in

adopting higher limits, it further complicates the issue of data

availability by necessitating the analysis of data by road segment. At

the national level, determining the impact of increased speed limits on

traffic fatalities will be limited to the latest available data from

the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) for calendar 1996, focusing

on the nine States that have had increased speed limits in place for

most or all of 1996. Finally, determining the impact of increased speed

limits related to the amount of vehicle miles traveled and the

distribution of vehicle speeds on affected roadways will be limited at

best to the preliminary information available to the agencies in the

summer of 1997.

The agencies' final plan for conducting the NHS Act study, in view

of the States' concerns and the analytical challenges discussed above,

is described in the following section.

NHS Act Study Data

The initial Federal Register notice described several major

categories of data the agencies needed, as a minimum, for addressing

critical components of estimating the impacts of increasing speed

limits. Based on the comments from the States and others in the area of

data availability, the agencies plan to conduct the NHS Act study using

the data described in the following table. This table represents a

subset of the minimum data requirements included in the initial Federal

Register notice.

[[Page 60740]]

NHS Act Study Data and Outline

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Performing

Purpose Data description organization

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Background.................. Effective Dates of NHTSA/FHWA and

Change in Limits, States.

Roadway Types, New

Limit(s), Types of

Vehicles Covered.

Determining the Impact of Fatalities--1996 NHTSA--national

Increased Speed Limits on Fatal Accident estimates and

Traffic Fatalities. Reporting System impact on limited

(FARS). number of States.

Estimating Costs............ Economic Cost of NHTSA--national

Crashes--Before vs. estimates.

After Speed Limit

Changes, Costs of

Fatalities.

Determining Exposure........ Vehicle Miles FHWA--VMT:

Traveled and Speed preliminary

Distribution. estimates, if

available; Speed

monitoring: from

those States making

voluntary

submissions.

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As discussed in Analytical Challenges, the agencies' ability to

address the impacts of increased speed limits on injury and other

crashes and estimating benefits in the NHS Act study will depend on

what the States are able to provide within the study schedule. The

agencies plan to use a methodology similar to that used in NHTSA's last

Report to Congress on the Effects of the 65 mph Speed Limit Through

1990 (DOT-HS-807-840, June 1992). This report illustrates the type of

analysis of crash data that can be performed for estimating the effect

of speed limit changes. In this report, a time series regression model

was used to estimate the data, using annual data from 1975 through 1986

as the baseline period, and 1987 through 1990 as the 65 mph period.

Fatalities on rural interstate highways in the 38 states that increased

their speed limits in 1987 were modeled as a function of fatalities on

all other roads in these 38 states, and a dummy (0,1) variable

representing the absence/presence of the 65 mph speed limit. This

approach resulted in a model that fit the data well (i.e., 88 percent

of the variation explained). In general, a longer time frame permits

more stable estimates than simply comparing the year before vs. the

year after, and thus, would be preferable for the current report.

Schedule for Conducting the NHS Act Study

The agencies plan to conduct the NHS Act study within the following

schedule in order to meet the deadline established by Section 347 of

the Act.

Schedule for Conducting NHS Study

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Date Milestone

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[Insert date of publication Publish final notice on NHS Act study

in the Federal Register]. plan and summary of comments received in

response to initial notice.

April 1-May 30, 1997......... Informally canvas States on the

availability of any State-specific

studies on the impact of increased speed

limits.

June 30, 1997................ NHTSA/FHWA complete draft NHS Act study

report including consolidation of

individual State studies, as available.

July 1997.................... Draft NHS study circulated for review

within DOT (and specific States, as

appropriate).

August 1997.................. Final NHS study completed and reviewed/

approved by DOT.

September 30, 1997........... Final NHS study sent to Congress.

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The NHS Act study as outlined above will provide the agencies and

Congress with a preliminary assessment of the impact of increased speed

limits for a limited number of States. The agencies plan to continue

informally to communicate with the States regarding the impact of

increased speed limits, as more States have had the increased limits in

effect for longer time periods.

Issued: November 22, 1996.

Donald C. Bischoff,

Executive Director, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Anthony R. Kane,

Executive Director, Federal Highway Administration.

[FR Doc. 96-30513 Filed 11-27-96; 8:45 am]

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