Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Illinois

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[IL132-1-7104; FRL-5278-2]

Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Illinois

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency.

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)

proposes to approve Illinois' request to grant an exemption for the

Chicago ozone nonattainment area from the applicable oxides of nitrogen

(NOX) transportation conformity requirements. On June 20, 1995,

Illinois submitted to the USEPA a State Implementation Plan (SIP)

revision request for an exemption under section 182(b)(1) of the Clean

Air Act (Act) from the conformity requirements for NOX for the

Chicago ozone nonattainment area, which is classified as severe. The

request is based on the urban airshed modeling (UAM) conducted for the

attainment demonstration for the Lake Michigan Ozone Study (LMOS)

modeling domain. The rationale for this proposed approval is set forth

below; additional information is available at the address indicated

below.

DATES: Comments on this proposed rule must be received on or before

September 15, 1995.

ADDRESSES: Copies of the documents relevant to this action are

available for inspection at the following address: (It is recommended

that you telephone Patricia Morris at (312) 353-8656, before visiting

the Region 5 office.) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 5,

Air and Radiation Division, 77 West Jackson Boulevard, Chicago,

Illinois, 60604.

Written comments shall be sent to: J. Elmer Bortzer, Chief,

Regulation Development Section, Regulation Development Branch (AR-18J),

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 77 West Jackson Boulevard,

Chicago, Illinois, 60604.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Patricia Morris, Regulation

Development Section, Regulation Development Branch (AR-18J), U.S.

Environmental Protection Agency, 77 West Jackson Boulevard, Chicago,

Illinois, 60604. (312) 353-8656.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

I. Background

Clean Air Act section 176(c)(3)(A)(iii) requires, in order to

demonstrate conformity with the applicable SIP, that transportation

plans and transportation improvement programs (TIPs) contribute to

emissions reductions in ozone and carbon monoxide nonattainment areas

during the period before control strategy SIPs are approved by USEPA.

This requirement is implemented in 40 CFR 51.436 through 51.440 (and

93.122 through 93.124), which establishes the so-called ``build/no-

build test.'' This test requires a demonstration that the ``Action''

scenario (representing the implementation of the proposed

transportation plan/TIP) will result in lower motor vehicle emissions

than the ``Baseline'' scenario (representing the implementation of the

current transportation plan/TIP). In addition, the ``Action'' scenario

must result in emissions lower than 1990 levels.

The November 24, 1993, final transportation conformity rule does

not require the build/no-build test and less-than-1990 test for

NOx as an ozone precursor in ozone nonattainment areas where the

Administrator determines that additional reductions of NOx would

not contribute to attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality

Standard (NAAQS) for ozone. Clean Air Act section 176(c)(3)(A)(iii),

which is the conformity provision requiring contributions to emission

reductions before SIPs with emissions budgets can be approved,

specifically references Clean Air Act section 182(b)(1). That section

requires submission of State plans that, among other things, provide

for specific annual reductions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and

NOx emissions ``as necessary'' to attain the ozone standard by the

applicable attainment date. Section 182(b)(1) further states that its

requirements do not apply in the case of NOx for those ozone

nonattainment areas for which USEPA determines that additional

reductions of NOx would not contribute to ozone attainment.

For ozone nonattainment areas, the process for submitting waiver

requests and the criteria used to evaluate them are explained in the

December 1993 USEPA document ``Guidelines for Determining the

Applicability of Nitrogen Oxides Requirements Under Section 182(f),''

and the May 27, 1994, and February 8, 1995, memoranda from

[[Page 42492]]

John S. Seitz, Director of the Office of Air Quality Planning and

Standards, to Regional Air Division Directors, titled ``Section 182(f)

NOx Exemptions--Revised Process and Criteria.''

On July 13, 1994, the States of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and

Wisconsin (the States) submitted to the USEPA a petition for an

exemption from the requirements of section 182(f) of the Clean Air Act

(Act). The States, acting through the Lake Michigan Air Directors

Consortium (LADCo), petitioned for an exemption from the Reasonably

Available Control Technology (RACT) and New Source Review (NSR)

requirements for major stationary sources of NOx. The petition

also asked for an exemption from the transportation and general

conformity requirements for NOx in all ozone nonattainment areas

in the Region.

On March 6, 1995, the USEPA published a rulemaking proposing

approval of the NOx exemption petition for the RACT, NSR and

transportation and general conformity requirements. A number of

comments were received on the proposal. Several commenters argued that

NOx exemptions are provided for in two separate parts of the Act,

in sections 182(b)(1) and 182(f), but that the Act's transportation

conformity provisions in section 176(c)(3) explicitly reference section

182(b)(1). In April 1995, the USEPA entered into an agreement to change

the procedural mechanism through which a NOx exemption from

transportation conformity would be granted (EDF et al. v. USEPA, No.

94-1044, U.S. Court of Appeals, D.C. Circuit). Instead of a petition

under 182(f), transportation conformity NOx exemptions for ozone

nonattainment areas that are subject to section 182(b)(1) now need to

be submitted as a SIP revision request. The Chicago ozone nonattainment

area is classified as severe and, thus, is subject to section

182(b)(1).

The transportation conformity requirements are found at sections

176(c) (2), (3), and (4). The conformity requirements apply on an

areawide basis in all nonattainment and maintenance areas. The USEPA's

transportation conformity rule 1 and general conformity rule

2 currently reference the section 182(f) exemption process as a

means for exempting any nonattainment area from NOx conformity

requirements. The USEPA intends to amend the transportation conformity

rule to instead reference section 182(b)(1) as the means for exempting

areas subject to section 182(b)(1) from the transportation conformity

NOx requirements. After the USEPA amends the transportation

conformity rule to reference section 182(b)(1) for granting NOx

waivers, the USEPA will take final action on today's proposal.

\1\ ``Criteria and Procedures for Determining Conformity to

State or Federal Implementation Plans of Transportation Plans,

Programs, and Projects Funded or Approved under Title 23 U.S.C. of

the Federal Transit Act'' November 24, 1993 (58 FR 62188).

\2\ ``Determining Conformity of General Federal Actions to State

or Federal Implementation Plans; Final Rule'' November 30, 1993 (58

FR 63214).

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The June 20, 1995, SIP revision request from Illinois, has been

submitted to meet the requirements of a formal SIP revision submittal

in accordance with the 182(b)(1) requirements. A public hearing on this

SIP revision request was held on July 17, 1995. The Chicago severe

ozone nonattainment area includes the Counties of Cook, DuPage, Grundy

(Aux Sable and Gooselake Townships), Kane, Kendall (Oswego Township),

Lake, McHenry, and Will.

Section 182(b)(1) requires submittal of a plan revision that

provides for reasonable further progress (RFP) reductions for moderate

and above ozone nonattainment areas. The plan must provide for specific

annual reductions in emissions of VOCs and NOx as necessary to

attain the national primary ambient air quality standard for ozone by

the attainment date applicable under the Act. Further, the requirement

shall not apply in the case of NOx for those areas for which the

Administrator determines that additional reductions of NOx would

not contribute to attainment. In evaluating the 182(b) SIP revision

request, the USEPA considered whether additional NOx reductions

would contribute to attainment of the standard in the Chicago area and

also in the downwind areas of the LMOS modeling domain.

As outlined in relevant USEPA guidance, the use of photochemical

grid modeling is the recommended approach for testing the contribution

of NOx emission reductions to attainment of the ozone standard.

This approach simulates conditions over the modeling domain that may be

expected at the attainment deadline for three emission reduction

scenarios: (1) Substantial VOC reductions, (2) substantial NOx

reductions, and (3) both VOC and NOx reductions. If the areawide

predicted maximum one-hour ozone concentration for each day modeled

under scenario (1) is less than or equal to those from scenarios (2)

and (3) for the corresponding days, the test is passed and the section

182(f) NOx emissions reduction requirements would not apply.

In making this determination under section 182(b)(1) that the

NOx requirements do not apply, or may be limited in the Lake

Michigan area, the USEPA has considered the national study of ozone

precursors completed pursuant to section 185B of the Act. The USEPA has

based its decision on the demonstration and the supporting information

provided in the SIP revision request.

II. Summary of Submittal

On June 20, 1995, the State of Illinois submitted as a revision to

the SIP, a request for a waiver from the transportation conformity

NOx requirements. The submittal included the LMOS UAM modeling for

the attainment demonstration for 3 ozone episodes during 1991. The

modeling supported the request by documenting that NOx reductions

in the Chicago nonattainment area would not contribute to attainment

and, in fact, would be detrimental to the goal of reaching attainment.

The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA) discussed the

NOx waiver in the context of the public hearing on the attainment

demonstration held on December 21, 1994. To assure that the public was

fully informed and given appropriate opportunity for comment, the IEPA

committed to hold a further hearing specifically to address the section

182(b)(1) transportation conformity waiver. This public hearing was

held on July 17, 1995.

Pursuant to 40 CFR part 93, subpart A, 40 CFR part 51, subpart T,

the SIP revision request seeks an exemption from the transportation

conformity requirements for NOx in the Chicago ozone nonattainment

area. The States' have utilized the UAM to demonstrate that reductions

in NOx in the LMOS modeling domain will not contribute to

attainment of the standard. To conduct the modeling analysis, the

following steps were followed: (a) Emissions were projected to 1996

(the deadline for implementation of the 15 percent reasonable further

progress reduction) and 2007 (the attainment deadline for the severe

nonattainment areas) from the 1990 base year, (b) it was assumed that a

40 percent VOC emission reduction beyond that achieved as a result of

emission controls mandated by the Act would be necessary to attain the

ozone standard in the LMOS modeling domain, (c) a 40 percent NOx

emission reduction in grid B (that portion of the LMOS modeling domain

that is essentially composed of the ozone nonattainment areas within

the modeling domain) beyond the projected emission levels was assumed

for all

[[Page 42493]]

anthropogenic NOx emissions, (d) a 40 percent VOC emission

reduction and a 40 percent NOx reduction in grid B beyond

projected emission levels were assumed for all anthropogenic VOC and

NOx emissions and (e), the ozone modeling results for (b), (c),

and (d) were compared considering the modeled domain-wide peak ozone

concentrations and temporal and spatial extent of modeled ozone

concentrations above 120 parts per billion (ppb).

For all modeled days using 1996 and 2007 conditions, domain-wide

peak ozone concentrations for ``VOC-only'' controls were found to be

lower than or equal to those for ``NOx-only'' controls or those

for ``VOC plus NOx'' controls. In addition, consideration of daily

peak ozone isopleth maps (these maps are included in the documentation

of the section 182(b) SIP revision request) shows that the ``VOC-only''

control scenario leads to the smallest areas with predicted peak ozone

concentrations exceeding 120 ppb.

Additional sensitivity tests were conducted for a 40 percent

NOx emission reduction that was applied only to point sources in

Grid B for episode 2 and 1996 conditions for both an assumed NOx

reduction alone and a 40 percent reduction in both VOCs and NOx.

These sensitivity tests compared to the scenarios with across the board

anthropogenic NOx reductions demonstrated that control of ground

level NOx sources (such as transportation sources) did not

contribute to attainment of the standard and in fact increased the

domain wide peak ozone concentrations exceeding 120 ppb and the number

of hours that exceeded 120 ppb. This result was more pronounced than

with the point source only NOx control.

III. Analysis of Submittal

Review of the modeling results show a very definite directional

signal indicating that application of NOx controls in the Chicago

ozone nonattainment area would exacerbate peak ozone concentrations not

only in the Chicago area but also in the LMOS modeling domain. The LMOS

modeling domain includes northern Indiana, western Michigan and eastern

Wisconsin. The States and LADCo have now completed the validation

process for the UAM modeling system to be used in the demonstration of

attainment for the LMOS modeling domain. Therefore, documentation

supporting the validity of the modeling results has been submitted with

the SIP revision request.

It is noted that the use of simple, area-wide emission projection

factors raises some uncertainty in the modeling results for 1996 and

2007. Some changes in modeling results may be expected if area-specific

and source category-specific projection factors are used instead of the

average factors used in these analyses. These more detailed projection

factors will be used in the final demonstration of attainment for the

LMOS domain. These changes, however, are not expected to reverse the

directional signal of the modeling done to date. Concluding that

NOx reductions will not contribute to attainment in Chicago and

throughout the LMOS domain.

Although ozone concentrations modeled further downwind from the

urban source areas increase as a result of increased NOx point

source emissions, this is not the case with the ground level NOx

sources. LADCo and the States view the potential increase in outflow

ozone concentrations with increasing NOx point source emissions to

be marginal. More importantly, the SIP revision request demonstrates

that additional reductions in NOx would not contribute to

attainment of the ozone standard in the LMOS domain. These results are

believed to be consistent with USEPA's section 185B report to Congress.

Therefore, based on its conformance with USEPA guidance, the USEPA

believes the State of Illinois' demonstration is adequate, and thus is

approving the transportation conformity waiver request. It is noted by

LADCo, however, that subsequent modeling analyses may lead to an ozone

attainment plan which includes, for specified portions of the LMOS

domain only, both NOx and VOC emission controls. The modeling

indicates that these NOx emission controls will most likely be

limited to rural areas, but would not be required in the Chicago

nonattainment area and will also not likely be applied to ground level

sources.

Monitoring data such as concentrations of non-methane hydrocarbons

and NOx and derived/monitored ozone production potentials of air

parcels, collected for the urban source areas during the 1991 field

study support the approval of the NOx waiver. It is noted,

however, that the primary basis for the approval of the NOx waiver

is the modeling results submitted in support of the waiver. The 1991

field data by themselves may not be an adequate support for the waiver

since these data are limited in nature and do not present a complete

picture of the impacts of NOx controls on LMOS modeling domain

peak ozone concentrations.

VOC and NOx emission reductions were found to produce

different impacts spatially. In and downwind of major urban areas,

within the ozone nonattainment areas, VOC reductions were effective in

lowering peak ozone concentrations, while NOx emission reductions

resulted in increased peak ozone concentrations. Farther downwind,

within attainment areas, VOC emissions reductions became less effective

for reducing ozone concentrations, while NOx emission reductions

were effective in lowering ozone concentrations. It must be noted,

however, that the magnitude of ozone decreases farther downwind due to

NOx emission reductions was less than the magnitude of ozone

increases in the ozone nonattainment areas as a result of the same

NOx emission reductions.

Analyses of ambient data by LMOS contractors provided results which

corroborated the modeling results. These analyses identified areas of

VOC- and NOx-limited conditions (VOC-limited conditions would

imply a greater sensitivity of ozone concentrations to changes in VOC

emissions; the reverse would be true for NOx-limited conditions)

and tracked the ozone and ozone precursor concentrations in the urban

plumes as they moved downwind. The analyses indicated VOC-limited

conditions in the Chicago/Northwest Indiana and Milwaukee areas and

NOx-limited conditions further downwind. These results imply that

VOC controls in the Chicago/Northwest Indiana and Milwaukee areas would

be more effective at reducing peak ozone concentrations within the

severe ozone nonattainment areas.

The consistency between the modeling results and the ambient data

analysis results for all episodes with joint data supports the view

that the UAM modeling system developed in the LMOS may be used to

investigate the relative merits of VOC versus NOx emission

controls. The UAM-V results for all modeled episodes point to the

benefits of VOC controls versus NOx controls in reducing the

modeled domain peak ozone concentrations.

For a more detailed analysis of the modeling analysis results,

please see the August 22, 1994 ``Technical Review of a Four State

Request for a Section 182(f) Exemption from Oxides of Nitrogen

(NOx) Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) and New

Source Review (NSR) Requirements'' memorandum contained in the docket

for this action.

The USEPA believes LADCo's UAM application has adequately met the

requirement to demonstrate that NOx

[[Page 42494]]

controls within the Chicago ozone nonattainment area and throughout the

LMOS domain will not contribute, but instead will interfere with

attainment of the ozone standard.

IV. Proposed Rulemaking Action and Solicitation of Comments

Based on the submittal accompanying the State's SIP revision

request, the USEPA proposes to approve Illinois' request for an

exemption from the transportation conformity requirement to provide

annual reductions in NOx emissions as necessary to reach

attainment, for the Chicago ozone nonattainment area.

Public comments are solicited on the requested SIP revision and on

USEPA's proposed rulemaking action. Comments received by September 15,

1995, will be considered in the development of USEPA's final rule.

This action has been classified as a Table 3 action for signature

by the Regional Administrator under the procedures published in the

Federal Register on January 19, 1989 (54 FR 2214-2225), as revised by a

July 10, 1995 memorandum from Mary Nichols, Assistant Administrator for

Air and Radiation. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has

exempted this regulatory action from Executive Order 12866 review.

Nothing in this action should be construed as permitting, allowing

or establishing a precedent for any future request for revision to any

SIP. The USEPA shall consider each request for revision to the SIP in

light of specific technical, economic, and environmental factors and in

relation to relevant statutory and regulatory requirements.

Under the Regulatory Flexibility Act, 5 U.S.C. 600 et seq., USEPA

must prepare a regulatory flexibility analysis assessing the impact of

any proposed or final rule on small entities. 5 U.S.C. 603 and 604.

Alternatively, USEPA may certify that the rule will not have a

significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.

Small entities include small businesses, small not-for-profit

enterprises, and government entities with jurisdiction over populations

of less than 50,000.

This approval does not create any new requirements. Therefore, I

certify that this action does not have a significant impact on any

small entities affected. Moreover, due to the nature of the Federal-

State relationship under the Act, preparation of the regulatory

flexibility analysis would constitute Federal inquiry into the economic

reasonableness of the State action. The Act forbids USEPA to base its

actions concerning SIPs on such grounds. Union Electric Co. v. USEPA,

427 U.S. 246, 256-66 (1976).

Under Section 202 of the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995

(``Unfunded Mandates Act''), signed into law on March 22, 1995, the

USEPA must prepare a budgetary impact statement to accompany any

proposed or final rule that includes a Federal mandate that may result

in estimated costs to State, local, or tribal governments in the

aggregate; or to the private sector, of $100 million or more. Under

Section 205, the USEPA must select the most cost-effective and least

burdensome alternative that achieves the objectives of the rule and is

consistent with statutory requirements. Section 203 requires the USEPA

to establish a plan for informing and advising any small governments

that may be significantly or uniquely impacted by the rule.

The USEPA has determined that this action does not include a

Federal mandate that may result in estimated costs of $100 million or

more to either State, local, or tribal governments in the aggregate, or

to the private sector.

This Federal action will relieve requirements otherwise imposed

under the Act, and hence does not impose any federal intergovernmental

mandate, as defined in section 101 of the Unfunded Mandates Act.

Accordingly, no additional costs to State, local, or tribal

governments, or the private sector, result from this action.

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52

Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Conformity,

Intergovernmental relations, Oxides of nitrogen, Ozone, Transportation

conformity.

Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401-7671q.

Dated: August 4, 1995.

Corinne S. Wellish,

Acting Regional Administrator.

[FR Doc. 95-20253 Filed 8-15-95; 8:45 am]

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