Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; South Coast Air Basin; 1-Hour and 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements

Federal RegisterJun 17, 2019

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R09-OAR-2019-0051; FRL-9994-76-Region 9]

Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; South Coast Air Basin; 1-Hour and 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements

AGENCY:

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION:

Proposed rule.

SUMMARY:

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to approve, or conditionally approve, all or portions of five state implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by the State of California to meet Clean Air Act (CAA or “the Act”) requirements for the 1979 1-hour, 1997 8-hour, and 2008 8-hour ozone national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS or “standards”) in the Los Angeles—South Coast Air Basin, California (“South Coast”) ozone nonattainment area. The five SIP revisions include the “Final 2016 Air Quality Management Plan,” the “Revised Proposed 2016 State Strategy for the State Implementation Plan,” the “2018 Updates to the California State Implementation Plan,” the “Updated Federal 1979 1-Hour Ozone Standard Attainment Demonstration,” and a local emission statement rule. In today's action, the EPA refers to these submittals collectively as the “2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.” The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP addresses the nonattainment area requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, including the requirements for an emissions inventory, attainment demonstration, reasonable further progress, reasonably available control measures, contingency measures, among others; establishes motor vehicle emissions budgets; and updates the previously-approved control strategies and attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and the 1997 ozone NAAQS. The EPA is proposing to approve the 2016 South Coast Ozone Plan as meeting all the applicable ozone nonattainment area requirements except for the reasonable further progress contingency measure requirement, for which the EPA is proposing conditional approval.

DATES:

Written comments must arrive on or before July 17, 2019.

ADDRESSES:

Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R09-OAR-2019-0051 at

https://www.regulations.gov.

For comments submitted at

Regulations.gov

, follow the online instructions for submitting comments. Once submitted, comments cannot be edited or removed from

Regulations.gov

. The EPA may publish any comment received to its public docket. Do not submit electronically any information you consider to be Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information whose disclosure is restricted by statute. Multimedia submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be accompanied by a written comment. The written comment is considered the official comment and should include discussion of all points you wish to make. The EPA will generally not consider comments or comment contents located outside of the primary submission (

i.e.,

on the web, cloud, or other file sharing system). For additional submission methods, please contact the person identified in the

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT

section. For the full EPA public comment policy, information about CBI or multimedia submissions, and general guidance on making effective comments, please visit

https://www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

John Ungvarsky, Air Planning Office (AIR-2), EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, CA 94105, (415) 972-3963, or by email at

ungvarsky.john@epa.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Throughout this document, “we,” “us” and “our” refer to the EPA.

Table of Contents

I. Regulatory Context

A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations, and SIPs

B. The South Coast Ozone Nonattainment Area

C. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 2008 Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs

II. Submissions From the State of California To Address 2008 Ozone Requirements in the South Coast

A. Summary of Submissions

B. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements for Adoption and Submission of SIP Revisions

III. Evaluation of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP

A. Emissions Inventories

B. Emissions Statement

C. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and Control Strategy

D. Attainment Demonstration

E. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration

F. Transportation Control Strategies and Measures To Offset Emissions Increases From Vehicle Miles Traveled

G. Contingency Measures

H. Clean Fuels or Advanced Control Technology for Boilers

I. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity

J. General Conformity Budgets

K. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Extreme Ozone Nonattainment Areas

IV. Proposed Action

V. Incorporation by Reference

VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

I. Regulatory Context

A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations, and SIPs

Ground-level ozone pollution is formed from the reaction of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO

) in the presence of sunlight.

These two pollutants, referred to as ozone precursors, are emitted by many types of sources, including on-and off-road motor vehicles and engines, power plants and industrial facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden equipment and paints.

The State of California refers to reactive organic gases (ROG) rather than VOC in some of its ozone-related SIP submissions. As a practical matter, ROG and VOC refer to the same set of chemical constituents, and for the sake of simplicity, we refer to this set of gases as VOC in this proposed rule.

Scientific evidence indicates that adverse public health effects occur following exposure to ozone, particularly in children and adults with lung disease. Breathing air containing ozone can reduce lung function and inflame airways, which can increase respiratory symptoms and aggravate asthma or other lung diseases.

“Fact Sheet—2008 Final Revisions to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone” dated March 2008.

Under section 109 of the CAA, the EPA promulgates NAAQS for pervasive air pollutants, such as ozone. The NAAQS are concentration levels that, the attainment and maintenance of which, the EPA has determined to be requisite to protect public health and welfare. In 1979, the EPA established the 1-hour ozone NAAQS of 0.12 parts per million (ppm) (referred to herein as the “1-hour ozone NAAQS”).

Section 110 of the CAA requires states to develop and submit SIPs to implement, maintain, and enforce the NAAQS.

44 FR 8202 (February 8, 1979).

Under the CAA, as amended in 1977, the EPA designated all areas of the country as “nonattainment,” “attainment,” or “unclassifiable” with respect to each NAAQS, and in so doing, designated the South Coast

as a nonattainment area for photochemical oxidant (later ozone).

States with nonattainment areas are required to submit revisions to their SIPs that

include a control strategy and technical analysis to demonstrate how the area will attain the NAAQS (referred to as an “attainment demonstration”), and the EPA took action on a number of related SIP revisions submitted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in the late 1970s and 1980s for the South Coast 1-hour ozone nonattainment area.

By 1990, like many other areas throughout the country, the South Coast had not attained the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, and under the CAA Amendments of 1990, the South Coast was classified as an “Extreme” nonattainment area for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS with an attainment deadline of November 15, 2010 and was subject to additional SIP planning requirements, including a revised attainment demonstration.

The South Coast includes Orange County, the southwestern two-thirds of Los Angeles County, southwestern San Bernardino County, and western Riverside County (see 40 CFR 81.305).

43 FR 8962 (March 3, 1978).

Under California law, CARB is the state agency that is responsible for the adoption and submission to the EPA of California SIPs and SIP revisions, and it has broad authority to establish emissions standards and other requirements for mobile sources. Local and regional air pollution control districts in California are responsible for the regulation of stationary sources and are generally responsible for the development of regional air quality plans. In the South Coast, the South Coast Air Quality Management District develops and adopts air quality management plans to address CAA planning requirements applicable to that region. Such plans are then submitted to CARB for adoption and submittal to the EPA as revisions to the California SIP.

56 FR 56694 (November 6, 1991).

In the wake of the classification of the South Coast nonattainment area as Extreme for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, CARB submitted a number of SIP revisions for the South Coast that contained attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and other SIP elements, and that relied on a combination of mobile source control measures adopted by CARB and stationary source control measures adopted by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD or “District”). In connection with these submittals, the EPA took the following actions:

• 1994 South Coast Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) and related state strategy—The EPA approved the 15 percent Rate-of-Progress (ROP) demonstration and the attainment demonstration, among other elements, for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS at 62 FR 1150 (January 8, 1997);

• 1997 AQMP, as revised in 1999—The EPA approved the revised control strategy and attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS at 65 FR 18903 (April 10, 2000); and

• 2003 AQMP and related state strategy—The EPA approved certain new commitments for emissions reductions but disapproved the revised 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration at 74 FR 10176 (March 10, 2009).

Each of these plans builds upon a foundation of regulations adopted and implemented by the SCAQMD, CARB, and the EPA for stationary and mobile sources, and includes commitments for new or more stringent regulations to achieve additional emissions reductions necessary for attainment. Each subsequent ozone plan then builds upon the foundation of the new or strengthened regulations that were adopted to support the previous plan. While the emissions reduction measures implemented under these South Coast ozone plans have been successful in reducing ozone concentrations in the South Coast, the South Coast failed to attain the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by the applicable attainment date of November 15, 2010.

76 FR 82133 (December 30, 2011).

In 1997, the EPA revised the NAAQS for ozone, setting it at 0.08 ppm averaged over an 8-hour timeframe (referred to herein as the “1997 ozone NAAQS”) to replace the existing 1-hour ozone NAAQS of 0.12 ppm.

In 2004, the EPA designated and classified the South Coast area as a “Severe-17” nonattainment area for the 1997 ozone NAAQS but later granted CARB's request to reclassify the South Coast to Extreme nonattainment for the 1997 ozone NAAQS.

The corresponding applicable attainment year for the 1997 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is 2023. In response to this designation, CARB submitted the 2007 South Coast AQMP and related 2007 State Strategy, as amended in 2009 and 2011 (collectively, referred to as the “2007 South Coast Ozone SIP”) and the EPA took the following action:

62 FR 38856 (July 18, 1997).

75 FR 24409 (May 5, 2010).

• 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP—Among other elements, the EPA approved the emission inventory, reasonably available control measures demonstration, reasonable further progress demonstration, control strategy and attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS at 77 FR 12674 (March 1, 2012), amended at 77 FR 70707 (November 27, 2012).

The 1997 ozone NAAQS control strategy in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP builds upon the control strategy established under the previous 1-hour ozone plans. In connection with our approval of the South Coast attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, the EPA approved a number of commitments by CARB and the SCAQMD as part of the California SIP. The commitments included bringing certain defined measures before their respective boards by certain dates, achieving certain aggregate emissions reductions by certain milestone years, and achieving emissions reductions from development and implementation of advanced control technologies under CAA section 182(e)(5).

In 2012, the EPA's 2009 final partial approval and partial disapproval action on the 2003 AQMP and related state strategy for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS was successfully challenged in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals,

and in response, the EPA issued a SIP call under CAA section 110(k)(5) to California for a new 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration for the South Coast.

CARB and the District, in turn, prepared and submitted a new attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS as part of the 2012 AQMP, and the EPA took the following action:

Association of Irritated Residents

EPA,

632 F.3d 584 (9th Cir. 2011), reprinted as amended on January 27, 2012, 686 F.3d 668, further amended February 13, 2012.

78 FR 889 (January 7, 2013).

• 2012 AQMP—The EPA approved new control measures and commitments for both the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and 1997 ozone NAAQS and approved a new attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast that provides for attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by December 31, 2022 at 79 FR 52526 (September 3, 2014).

The SIP revisions that are the subject of today's proposed action update certain commitments made in connection with the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP for the 1997 ozone NAAQS and the 2012 AQMP for both the 1997 ozone NAAQS and the 1-hour ozone NAAQS. These revised commitments reflect updated emissions inventories and new modeling results.

In 2008, the EPA lowered the 8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.075 ppm (referred to herein as the “2008 ozone NAAQS”) to replace the 1997 ozone NAAQS of 0.08 ppm.

In 2012, the EPA designated the South Coast as nonattainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS and classified the area as Extreme.

Areas classified as Extreme must attain the NAAQS within 20 years of the effective date of the nonattainment designation.

The SIP

revisions that are the subject of today's proposed action address the Extreme nonattainment area requirements that apply to the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.

73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008). The EPA further tightened the 8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.070 ppm in 2015, but this proposed action relates to the requirements for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the 1997 ozone NAAQS and the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Information on the 2015 ozone NAAQS is available at 80 FR 65292 (October 26, 2015).

77 FR 30088 (May 21, 2012).

CAA section 181(a)(1), 40 CFR 51.1102 and 51.1103(a).

B. The South Coast Ozone Nonattainment Area

The South Coast nonattainment area for the 2008 ozone NAAQS consists of Orange County, the southwestern two-thirds of Los Angeles County, southwestern San Bernardino County, and western Riverside County. The South Coast nonattainment area encompasses an area of approximately 6,600 square miles and is bounded by the Pacific Ocean to the west and the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and San Jacinto mountains to the north and east.

The population of the South Coast nonattainment area is over 16 million people, and it is projected to increase by 13 percent to over 18 million people in 2031.

The AQMPs and state control measures discussed above have produced significant emissions reductions over the years and improved air quality in the South Coast. For instance, the 8-hour ozone design value for the South Coast decreased from 0.166 ppm to 0.102 ppm from 1995 to 2015, despite substantial increases in population and business and vehicular activity, and the 1-hour ozone design value decreased from 0.250 ppm to 0.130 ppm over that same period.

For a precise definition of the boundaries of the South Coast 2008 ozone nonattainment area, see 40 CFR 81.305.

2016 AQMP, page 1-5.

For the 8-hour ozone NAAQS, the design value at any given monitoring site is the 3-year average of the annual fourth highest daily maximum 8-hour average ambient air quality ozone concentration. For the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the design value at any given monitoring site is the fourth highest daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentration measured over a three-year period. The maximum design value among the various ozone monitoring sites is the design value for the area. The ozone data for 1995 through 2015 are from appendix II (“Current Air Quality”) of the 2016 AQMP.

C. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 2008 Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs

States must implement the 2008 ozone NAAQS under Title 1, part D of the CAA, including sections 171-179B of subpart 1 (“Nonattainment Areas in General”) and sections 181-185 of subpart 2 (“Additional Provisions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas”). To assist states in developing effective plans to address ozone nonattainment problems, in 2015, the EPA issued a SIP Requirements Rule (SRR) for the 2008 ozone NAAQS (“2008 Ozone SRR”) that addressed implementation of the 2008 standards, including attainment dates, requirements for emissions inventories, attainment and reasonable further progress (RFP) demonstrations, among other SIP elements, as well as the transition from the 1997 ozone NAAQS to the 2008 ozone NAAQS and associated anti-backsliding requirements.

The 2008 Ozone SRR is codified at 40 CFR part 51, subpart AA. We discuss the CAA and regulatory requirements for the elements of 2008 ozone plans relevant to this proposal in more detail below.

80 FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).

The EPA's 2008 Ozone SRR was challenged, and on February 16, 2018, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit (“D.C. Circuit”) published its decision in

South Coast Air Quality Management District

EPA

(

“South Coast II”

)

vacating portions of the 2008 Ozone SRR. The only aspect of the

South Coast II

decision that affects this proposed action is the vacatur of the alternative baseline year for RFP plans. More specifically, the 2008 Ozone SRR required states to develop the baseline emissions inventory for RFP plans using the emissions for the most recent calendar year for which states submit a triennial inventory to the EPA under subpart A (“Air Emissions Reporting Requirements”) of 40 CFR part 51, which was 2011. However, the 2008 Ozone SRR allowed states to use an alternative year, between 2008 and 2012, for the baseline emissions inventory provided that the state demonstrated why the alternative baseline year was appropriate. In the

South Coast II

decision, the D.C. Circuit vacated the provisions of the 2008 Ozone SRR that allowed states to use an alternative baseline year for demonstrating RFP.

South Coast Air Quality Management District

EPA,

882 F.3d 1138 (D.C. Cir. 2018) (“

South Coast II”

The term “

South Coast II”

is used in reference to the 2018 court decision to distinguish it from a decision published in 2006 also referred to as “

South Coast.”

The earlier decision involved a challenge to the EPA's Phase 1 implementation rule for the 1997 ozone NAAQS.

South Coast Air Quality Management Dist.

EPA,

472 F.3d 882 (D.C. Cir. 2006).

II. Submissions From the State of California To Address 2008 Ozone Requirements in the South Coast

A. Summary of Submissions

In this document, we are proposing action on all or portions of five SIP revisions, which are described in detail in the following paragraphs. Collectively, we refer to the relevant portions of the five SIP revisions as the “2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.”

1. SCAQMD's 2016 Air Quality Management Plan

On April 27, 2017, CARB submitted the Final 2016 Air Quality Management Plan (March 2017

)

(“2016 AQMP”) to the EPA as a revision to the California SIP.

The 2016 AQMP addresses the nonattainment area requirements for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the 2006 fine particle (PM

2.5

) NAAQS and the 2012 PM

2.5

NAAQS, and for the Coachella Valley for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. It also updates the approved attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone and 1997 ozone NAAQS for the South Coast and adds new measures to reduce the reliance on section 182(e)(5) new technology measures to attain those standards. We have already taken action to approve the 2016 AQMP with respect to the 2006 PM

2.5

NAAQS (except for the related contingency measure element).

In this document, we are proposing action on the ozone portion of the 2016 AQMP for the South Coast. Action on the portions of the 2016 AQMP that relate to the 2012 PM

2.5

NAAQS in the South Coast and to the 2008 ozone NAAQS in Coachella Valley will be taken in separate rulemakings.

Letter dated April 27, 2017, from Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, to Alexis Strauss, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.

84 FR 3305 (February 12, 2019).

The SIP revision for the 2016 AQMP includes the various chapters and appendices of the 2016 AQMP, described further below, plus the District's resolution of adoption for the plan (District Resolution 17-2) and CARB's resolution of adoption of the 2016 AQMP as a revision to the California SIP (CARB Resolution 17-8) that include commitments on which the 2016 AQMP relies.

With respect to ozone, the 2016 AQMP addresses the CAA requirements for emissions inventories, air quality modeling demonstrating attainment, reasonably available control measures (RACM), RFP, advanced technology/clean fuels for boilers, transportation control strategies and measures, and contingency measures for failure to make RFP, among other requirements.

SCAQMD Board Resolution 17-2, March 3, 2017; CARB Board Resolution 17-8, 2016 Air Quality Management Plan for Ozone and PM

2.5

in the South Coast and the Coachella Valley, March 23, 2017.

The 2016 AQMP is organized into eleven chapters, most of which are relevant to the ozone NAAQS in the South Coast.

Chapter 1,

“Introduction,” introduces the 2016 AQMP, including its purpose, historical air quality progress in the South Coast, and the District's approach to air quality planning. Chapter 2, “Air Quality and Health Effects,” discusses current air quality in comparison with federal health-based air pollution standards. Chapter 3, “Base Year and Future Emissions,” summarizes emissions inventories, estimates current emissions by source and pollutant, and projects future emissions with and without growth. Chapter 4, “Control Strategy and Implementation,” presents the control strategy, specific measures, and implementation schedules to attain the air quality standards by the specified attainment dates. Chapter 5, “Future Air Quality,” describes the modeling approach used in the 2016 AQMP and summarizes the South Coast's future air quality projections with and without the control strategy. Chapter 6, “Federal and State Clean Air Act Requirements,” discusses specific federal and state requirements as they pertain to the South Coast, including anti-backsliding requirements for revoked standards. Chapter 11, “Public Process and Participation,” describes the District's public outreach effort associated with the development of the 2016 AQMP. A glossary is provided at the end of the document, presenting definitions of commonly used terms found in the 2016 AQMP.

The following chapters or portions thereof in the 2016 AQMP were submitted for information only and are not subject to review as part of the SIP revision: The portion of Chapter 6 that is titled “California Clean Air Act Requirements” and that discusses compliance with state law requirements

for clean air plans; Chapter 8, “Looking Beyond Current Requirements,” assesses the South Coast's status with respect to the 2015 8-hour ozone standard of 0.070 ppm; Chapter 9, “Air Toxic Control Strategy,” examines the ongoing efforts to reduce health risk from toxic air contaminants, co-benefits from reducing criteria pollutants, and potential future actions; and Chapter 10, “Climate and Energy,” provides a description of current and projected energy demand and supply issues in the South Coast, and the relationship between air quality improvement and greenhouse gas mitigation goals. As noted previously, we are not taking action in this rulemaking on the portions of the 2016 AQMP that relate to the 2008 ozone NAAQS in Coachella Valley, which includes Chapter 7 (“Current and Future Air Quality—Desert Nonattainment Areas SIP”) and the portions that relate to the PM

2.5

NAAQS in the South Coast.

The 2016 AQMP also includes the following technical appendices:

• Appendix I (“Health Effects”) presents a summary of scientific findings on the health effects of ambient air pollutants.

• Appendix II (“Current Air Quality”) contains a detailed summary of the air quality in 2015, along with prior year trends, in both the South Coast and the Coachella Valley.

• Appendix III (“Base and Future Year Emission Inventory”) presents the 2012 base year emissions inventory and projected emission inventories of air pollutants in future attainment years for both annual average and summer planning inventories.

• Appendix IV-A (“SCAQMD's Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures”) describes SCAQMD's proposed stationary and mobile source control measures to attain the federal ozone and fine particulate matter PM

2.5

standards.

• Appendix IV-B (“CARB's Mobile Source Strategy”) describes CARB's proposed 2016 strategy to attain health-based federal air quality standards.

• Appendix IV-C (“Regional Transportation Strategy and Control Measures”) describes the Southern California Association of Governments' (SCAG) “Final 2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy” and transportation control measures included in the 2016 PM

2.5

Plan.

• Appendix V (“Modeling and Attainment Demonstrations”) provides the details of the regional modeling for the attainment demonstration.

• Appendix VI (“Compliance with Other Clean Air Act Requirements”) provides the District's demonstration that the 2016 AQMP complies with specific CAA requirements.

As discussed in section III.D of this notice, the attainment demonstrations for the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS in the 2016 AQMP rely on certain commitments made by CARB in the Revised Proposed 2016 State Strategy for the State Implementation Plan (March 7, 2017) (“2016 State Strategy”), which was also submitted on April 27, 2017. Since submittal of the 2016 AQMP, the District and CARB have updated and supplemented certain other elements of the 2016 AQMP (such as the RFP demonstration, contingency measure element, motor vehicle emissions budgets, and 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration) through SIP revision submittals dated December 5, 2018 and December 20, 2018, also discussed in section II.A of this notice.

2. CARB's 2016 State Strategy

On April 27, 2017, CARB submitted the 2016 State Strategy to the EPA as a revision to the California SIP.

The SIP revision for the 2016 State Strategy includes the main document itself plus CARB's resolution of adoption of the 2016 State Strategy (CARB Resolution 17-7) that includes commitments on which the 2016 State Strategy relies.

Letter dated April 27, 2017 from Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, to Alexis Strauss, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.

CARB Board Resolution 17-7, 2016 State Strategy for the State Implementation Plan, March 23, 2017.

CARB worked closely with the District in the development of the 2016 AQMP and anticipated the need to adopt State commitments to achieve aggregate emission reductions in the South Coast. The commitment in the 2016 State Strategy includes two components: (1) A commitment to bring to the CARB Board for consideration, or to otherwise take action on, certain defined new measures (

e.g.,

new California low-NO

standards for on-road heavy-duty engines, low-emission diesel requirements for off-road equipment, and continued development of advanced technologies pursuant to CAA section 182(e)(5)), and (2) a commitment to achieve aggregate emissions reductions by specific dates. In the 2016 State Strategy, CARB made separate aggregate emissions reduction commitments for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley.

On February 12, 2019, we approved CARB's commitment from the 2016 State Strategy for the 2008 ozone NAAQS attainment plan for the San Joaquin Valley.

In today's action, we are proposing approval of CARB's commitment from the 2016 State Strategy for the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. With respect to the South Coast, CARB's aggregate emissions reduction commitment amounts to 113 tons per day (tpd) of NO

and 50 to 51 tpd of VOCs by 2023 to meet the 1997 ozone NAAQS, and 111 tpd of NO

and 59 to 60 tpd of VOCs by 2031 to meet 2008 ozone NAAQS.

84 FR 3302 (February 12, 2019).

Staff Report, ARB Review of the 2016 Air Quality Management Plan for the South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley, March 7, 2017; CARB Board Resolution 17-7, 2016 State Strategy for the State Implementation Plan, March 23, 2017.

3. CARB's 2018 Updates to the California State Implementation Plan

On December 5, 2018, CARB submitted the 2018 Updates to the California State Implementation Plan (“2018 SIP Update”) to the EPA as a revision to the California SIP.

CARB adopted the 2018 SIP Update on October 25, 2018. CARB developed the 2018 SIP Update in response to the court's decision in

South Coast II

vacating the 2008 Ozone SRR with respect to the use of an alternate baseline year for demonstrating RFP and to address contingency measure requirements in the wake of the court decision in

Bahr

EPA.

The 2018 SIP

Update includes an RFP demonstration using the required 2011 baseline year for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The 2018 SIP Update also includes updated motor vehicle emission budgets and information to support the contingency measure element.

Letter dated December 5, 2018, from Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.

Bahr

EPA,

836 F.3d 1218 (9th Cir. 2016) (“

Bahr

EPA”

). In

Bahr

EPA,

the court rejected the EPA's longstanding interpretation of CAA

section 172(c)(9) as allowing for early implementation of contingency measures. The court concluded that a contingency measure must take effect at the time the area fails to make RFP or attain by the applicable attainment date, not before.

The 2018 SIP Update includes updates for 8 different California ozone nonattainment areas. We have already taken action to approve the San Joaquin Valley portion of the 2018 SIP Update,

and in today's document, we are taking action on the South Coast portion of the 2018 SIP Update. Also, to supplement the contingency measure element of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, CARB forwarded a January 29, 2019 letter of commitment from the District.

In its letter, the District commits to modify an existing rule or adopt a new rule to create a contingency measure that will be triggered if the area fails to meet an RFP milestone for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.

In the February 13, 2019 letter, CARB commits to submit the revised District rule to the EPA as a SIP revision within 12 months of the final action on the EPA's final action on the RFP contingency measure element of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.

84 FR 11198 (March 25, 2019). In our March 25, 2019 final rule, the EPA approved Resolution 18-50 (adopting the 2018 SIP Update as a SIP revision), including Attachments A (“Covered Districts”), B (“Menu of Enhanced Enforcement Actions”) and C (“Correction of Typographical Error”), chapter VIII (“SIP Elements for the San Joaquin Valley”), chapter X (“Contingency Measures”) and Appendix A (“Nonattainment Area Inventories”), A-1, A-2 and A-27 through A-30, only.

Letter dated February 13, 2019, from Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.

Letter dated January 29, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer. The District clarified its January 29, 2019 commitment in a letter dated May 2, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer. CARB forwarded the District's clarification to the EPA in a letter dated May 20, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, CARB, to Amy Zimpfer, EPA Region IX.

Letter dated February 13, 2019, from Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.

4. SCAQMD's Updated Attainment Demonstration for the 1-Hour Ozone NAAQS

On December 20, 2018, CARB submitted the Updated Federal 1979 1-Hour Ozone Standard Attainment Demonstration (November 2018) (“1-Hour Ozone Update”) to the EPA as a revision to the California SIP.

The emissions inventories used for the 1997 and 2008 (8-hour) ozone attainment demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP reflect planning assumptions that were updated after the District had completed the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration for the 2016 AQMP, and the District prepared the 1-Hour Ozone Update to align the attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS with the attainment demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP for the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS.

Letter dated December 20, 2018, from Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.

The 1-Hour Ozone Update includes an updated emissions inventory consistent with the final emissions inventory used for the 8-hour ozone attainment demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP, revised air quality modeling, and an updated attainment strategy that demonstrates attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022 without the need for reductions from CAA section 182(e)(5) new technology measures. While the updated attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS no longer relies on emissions reductions from the 2016 State Strategy or CAA section 182(e)(5) measures, it continues to rely on the District's commitment from the 2016 AQMP to achieve aggregate emissions reductions of 20.6 tpd of NO

and 6.1 tpd of VOC by 2022.

5. SCAQMD's Rule 301 (“Permitting and Associated Fees”)

On May 20, 2019, CARB requested that the EPA accept a public draft revision to District Rule 301 (“Permitting and Associated Fees”) for parallel processing.

Under the EPA's parallel processing procedure, the EPA may propose action on a public draft version of a SIP revision but will take final action only after the state adopts and submits the final version to the EPA for approval.

If there are no significant changes from the public draft version of the SIP revision to the final version, the EPA may elect to take final action on the proposal. The draft revision was released for public review on May 17, 2019. In this case, it is anticipated that the District will adopt without significant modifications revised Rule 301 on July 12, 2019 and will submit the revised rule to CARB for adoption and submittal to the EPA as a revision to the California SIP. We are proposing our action based on the public draft version of revised Rule 301 submitted to us for parallel processing on May 20, 2019.

Letter dated May 20, 2019, from Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer, to Michael Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.

See 40 CFR part 51, appendix V, section 2.3.

District Rule 301 includes a number of provisions related solely to fees, which are not required to be in the SIP, but, it also includes certain provisions (specifically, paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)) that require annual reporting of emissions of VOC and NO

from certain stationary sources. The relevant provisions of District Rule 301 are intended by the District and CARB to address the emissions statement requirement in CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. In this document, we are proposing action on the relevant portions of revised District Rule 301 based on the public draft version of the rule submitted to us for parallel processing on May 20, 2019.

B. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements for Adoption and Submission of SIP Revisions

CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l) require a state to provide reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing prior to the adoption and submission of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet this requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that adequate public notice was given and an opportunity for a public hearing was provided consistent with the EPA's implementing regulations in 40 CFR 51.102.

Both the District and CARB have satisfied the applicable statutory and regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing prior to the adoption and submittal of the SIP revisions that comprise the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. With respect to the 2016 AQMP, the District held six regional workshops from July 14 through July 21, 2016 to discuss the plan and solicit public input. On December 19 and 20, 2016, the District published notices in several local newspapers of a public hearing to be held on February 3, 2017, for the adoption of the 2016 AQMP.

On February 3, 2017, the District held the public hearing, and, through Resolution 17-2, adopted on March 3, 2017, the 2016 AQMP and directed the Executive Officer to forward the plan to CARB for inclusion in the California SIP.

Memorandum dated January 24, 2017, from Denise Garzaro, Clerk of the Boards, SCAQMD to Arlene Martinez, Administrative Secretary, Planning, Rule Development and Area Sources, SCAQMD. The memorandum includes copies of the proofs of publication of the notice for the February 3, 2017 public hearing.

CARB also provided public notice and opportunity for public comment on the 2016 AQMP. On March 6, 2017, CARB

released for public review its Staff Report for the 2016 AQMP and published a notice of public meeting to be held on March 23, 2017, to consider adoption of the 2016 AQMP.

On March 23, 2017, CARB held the hearing and adopted the 2016 AQMP as a revision to the California SIP, excluding those portions not required to be submitted to the EPA, and directed the Executive Officer to submit the 2016 AQMP to the EPA for approval into the California SIP.

On April 27, 2017, the Executive Officer of CARB submitted the 2016 AQMP to the EPA and included the transcript of the hearing held on March 23, 2017.

On October 23, 2017, the EPA determined that the portions of this submittal applicable to the 2008 ozone NAAQS were complete.

Notice of Public Meeting to Consider Adopting the 2016 Air Quality Management Plan for Ozone and PM

2.5

for the South Coast Air Basin and the Coachella Valley signed by Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, March 6, 2017.

CARB Resolution 17-8, 10.

Transcript of the March 23, 2017 Meeting of the State of California Air Resources Board.

Letter dated October 23, 2017, from Matthew J. Lakin, Acting Director, Air Division, EPA Region IX to Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB.

With respect to the 2016 State Strategy, on May 17, 2016, CARB circulated for public review and comment the Proposed State Strategy, provided a 60-day comment period, and provided notice of a public hearing by its Board to be held on September 22, 2016. On March 7, 2017, in response to comments received during the public comment period and later during public workshops, and, based on Board direction provided to staff during the September 22, 2016 Board meeting, CARB released a Revised Proposed State Strategy. On March 23, 2017, through Resolution 17-7, CARB adopted the 2016 State Strategy following public hearing. On April 27, 2017, CARB submitted the 2016 State Strategy to the EPA as a revision to the California SIP.

With respect to the 2018 SIP Update, CARB also provided public notice and opportunity for public comment. On September 21, 2018, CARB released for public review the 2018 SIP Update and published a notice of public meeting to be held on October 23, 2018, to consider adoption of the 2018 SIP Update.

On October 23, 2018, through Resolution 18-50, CARB adopted the 2018 SIP Update. On December 5, 2018, CARB submitted the 2018 SIP Update to the EPA.

Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the 2018 Updates to the California State Implementation Plan signed by Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, September 21, 2018.

With respect to the 1-Hour Ozone Update, the District held a workshop on September 20, 2018. On October 3, 2018, the District published notices in several local newspapers for a public hearing to be held on November 2, 2018, for the adoption of the 1-Hour Ozone Update.

On November 2, 2018, the District held the public hearing, and, through Resolution 18-20, adopted the 1-Hour Ozone Update and directed the Executive Officer to forward the plan to CARB for inclusion in the California SIP. On November 9, 2018, CARB published a notice of public meeting to be held on December 5, 2018, to consider adoption of the 1-Hour Ozone Update.

On December 13, 2018, through Resolution 18-55, CARB adopted the 1-Hour Ozone Update, and on December 20, 2018, CARB submitted the 1-Hour Ozone Update to the EPA.

See proofs of publications dated October 3, 2018, from the Inland Daily Bulletin, Los Angeles Daily Journal, Orange County Reporter, The Press Enterprise, and San Bernardino Sun.

Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the Proposed Revision to the South Coast 1-Hr Ozone State Implementation Plan signed by Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, November 9, 2018.

With respect to District Rule 301, by letter dated May 20, 2019, CARB submitted the public draft revision to District Rule 301 to the EPA with a request for parallel processing. The District is expected to adopt the revision on July 12, 2019, and to forward the rule (along with the necessary public process documentation) to CARB for approval and submittal to the EPA as a revision the California SIP.

Based on information provided in each of the SIP revisions summarized above, the EPA has determined that all hearings were properly noticed. Therefore, we find that the submittals of the 2016 AQMP, the 2016 State Strategy, the 2018 SIP Update, and the 1-Hour Ozone Update meet the procedural requirements for public notice and hearing in CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l) and 40 CFR 51.102. We anticipate receipt of all the necessary public process documentation for adoption of District Rule 301 when we receive the formal SIP submittal package from CARB.

III. Evaluation of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP

A. Emissions Inventories

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) require states to submit for each ozone nonattainment area a “base year inventory” that is a comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual emissions from all sources of the relevant pollutant or pollutants in the area. In addition, the 2008 Ozone SRR requires that the inventory year be selected consistent with the baseline year for the RFP demonstration, which is the most recent calendar year for which a complete triennial inventory is required to be submitted to the EPA under the Air Emissions Reporting Requirements.

2008 Ozone SRR at 40 CFR 51.1115(a) and the Air Emissions Reporting Requirements at 40 CFR part 51 subpart A.

The EPA has issued guidance on the development of base year and future year emissions inventories for 8-hour ozone and other pollutants.

Emissions inventories for ozone must include emissions of VOC and NO

and represent emissions for a typical ozone season weekday.

States should include documentation explaining how the emissions data were calculated. In estimating mobile source emissions, states should use the latest emissions models and planning assumptions available at the time the SIP is developed.

“Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations,” EPA-454/B-17-002, May 2017. At the time the 2016 AQMP was developed, the following EPA emissions inventory guidance applied: “Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations” EPA-454-R-05-001, November 2005.

40 CFR 51.1115(a) and (c), and 40 CFR 51.1100(bb) and (cc).

80 FR 12264, at 12290 (March 6, 2015).

Future baseline emissions inventories must reflect the most recent population, employment, travel and congestion estimates for the area. In this context, “baseline” emissions inventories refer to emissions estimates for a given year and area that reflect rules and regulations and other measures that are already adopted. Future baseline emissions inventories are necessary to show the projected effectiveness of SIP control measures. Both the base year and future year inventories are necessary for photochemical modeling to demonstrate attainment.

2. Summary of State's Submission

The 2016 AQMP includes base year (2012) and future year baseline inventories for NO

and VOC for the South Coast ozone nonattainment area. Documentation for the inventories is found in Chapter 3 (“Base Year and Future Emissions”) and Appendix III (“Base Year and Future Year Emission Inventory”) of the 2016 AQMP. Because ozone levels in South Coast are typically higher from May through October, these

inventories represent average summer day emissions. The 2012 base year and future year inventories in the 2016 AQMP reflect District rules adopted prior to December 2015 and CARB rules adopted by November 2015. Both base year and projected future year inventories use the current EPA-approved version of California's mobile source emissions model, EMFAC2014, for estimating on-road motor vehicle emissions.

80 FR 77337 (December 14, 2015). EMFAC is short for EMission FACtor. The EPA announced the availability of the EMFAC2014 model for use in state implementation plan development and transportation conformity in California on December 14, 2015. The EPA's approval of the EMFAC2014 emissions model for SIP and conformity purposes was effective on the date of publication of the notice in the

Federal Register

VOC and NO

emissions estimates in the 2016 AQMP are grouped into two general categories, stationary sources and mobile sources. Stationary sources are further divided into “point” and “area” sources. Point sources typically refer to permitted facilities and have one or more identified and fixed pieces of equipment and emissions points. Area sources consist of widespread and numerous smaller emission sources, such as small permitted facilities, households, and road dust. The mobile sources category is divided into two major subcategories, “on-road” and “off-road” mobile sources. On-road mobile sources include light-duty automobiles, light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks, and motorcycles. Off-road mobile sources include aircraft, locomotives, construction equipment, mobile equipment, and recreational vehicles.

For the 2016 AQMP, point source emissions for the 2012 base year emissions inventory are based on reported data from facilities using the District's annual emissions reporting program, which applies under District Rule 301 to stationary sources in the South Coast that emit more than 4 tons per year (tpy) or more of VOC or NO

. Area sources include smaller emissions sources distributed across the nonattainment area. CARB and the District estimate emissions for about 400 area source categories using established inventory methods, including publicly-available emission factors and activity information. Activity data are derived from national survey data such as the Energy Information Administration or from local sources such as the Southern California Gas Company, paint suppliers, and District databases. Emission factors used for the estimates come from a number of sources including source tests, compliance reports, and the EPA's compilation of emissions factor document known as “AP-42.”

On-road emissions inventories in the 2016 AQMP are calculated using CARB's EMFAC2014 model and the travel activity data provided by SCAG in “The 2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy.”

CARB provided emissions inventories for off-road equipment, including construction and mining equipment, industrial and commercial equipment, lawn and garden equipment, agricultural equipment, ocean-going vessels, commercial harbor craft, locomotives, cargo handling equipment, pleasure craft, and recreational vehicles. CARB uses several models to estimate emissions for more than one hundred off-road equipment categories.

Aircraft emissions are developed in conjunction with the airports in the region. For the base year and future attainment year inventories, marine vessel emissions out to 100 nautical miles from the coastline are included.

See

http://scagrtpscs.net/Pages/FINAL2016RTPSCS.aspx.

2016 AQMP, Appendix III, page III-1-24.

Table 1 provides a summary of the District's 2012 base year and future attainment year baseline emissions estimates in tons per average summer day for NO

and VOC. These inventories provide the basis for the control measure analysis and the attainment demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP. Based on the inventory for 2012, stationary and area sources currently account for roughly 40 percent of VOC emissions and 10 percent of the NO

emissions in the South Coast while mobile sources account for roughly 60 percent of the VOC emissions and 90 percent of the NO

emissions. For a more detailed discussion of the inventories, see Appendix III of the 2016 AQMP.

Table 1—South Coast Base Year and Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Inventories

[Summer planning inventory, tpd]

Category

2012

VOC

2022

VOC

2023

VOC

2031

VOC

Stationary and Area Sources

211

220

231

On-Road Mobile Sources

293

162

117

Off-Road Mobile Sources

165

126

120

117

100

Total

522

500

287

383

255

379

214

362

Source: 2016 AQMP, Chapter 3, tables 3-2, 3-4B, 3-4C and 3-4E. The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.

Future emissions forecasts in the 2016 AQMP are primarily based on demographic and economic growth projections provided by SCAG, the metropolitan planning organization (MPO) for the South Coast, and control factors developed by the District in reference to the 2012 base year. Growth factors used to project these baseline inventories are derived mainly from data obtained from SCAG.

2016 AQMP, Appendix III, page III-2-6.

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission

We have reviewed the 2012 base year emissions inventory in the 2016 AQMP, and the inventory methodologies used by the District and CARB, for consistency with CAA requirements and EPA's guidance. First, as required by EPA regulation, we find that the 2012 inventory includes estimates for VOC and NO

for a typical ozone season weekday, and that CARB has provided adequate documentation explaining how the emissions are calculated. Second, we find that the 2012 base year emissions inventory in the 2016 AQMP reflects appropriate emissions models and methodologies, and, therefore, represents a comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory of actual emissions during that year in the South Coast nonattainment area. Third, we

find that selection of year 2012 for the base year emissions inventory is appropriate because it is consistent with the 2011 RFP baseline year (from the 2018 SIP Update) because both inventories are derived from a common set of models and methods. Lastly, although the requirement for a base year emissions inventory applies to the nonattainment area, we find that the inclusion of marine emissions out to 100 miles (

i.e.,

beyond the nonattainment area boundary, which lies 3 miles offshore) in the base year inventory to be appropriate given that such emissions must be accounted for in the ozone attainment demonstrations. Therefore, the EPA is proposing to approve the 2012 emissions inventory in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements for a base year inventory set forth in CAA section 182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1115.

With respect to future year baseline projections, we have reviewed the growth and control factors and find them acceptable and conclude that the future baseline emissions projections in the 2016 AQMP reflect appropriate calculation methods and the latest planning assumptions. Also, as a general matter, the EPA will approve a SIP revision that takes emissions reduction credit for a control measure only where the EPA has approved the measure as part of the SIP. Thus, to take credit for the emissions reductions from newly-adopted or amended District rules for stationary sources, the related rules must be approved by the EPA into the SIP. Table 2 in the technical support document (TSD) accompanying this rulemaking shows District rules with post-2012 compliance dates that were incorporated in the future year inventories, along with information on EPA approval of these rules, and shows that emissions reductions assumed by the 2016 AQMP for future years for stationary sources are supported by rules approved as part of the SIP. With respect to mobile sources, the EPA has taken action in recent years to approve CARB mobile source regulations into the California SIP.

We therefore find that the future year baseline projections in the 2016 AQMP are properly supported by SIP-approved stationary and mobile source measures.

See 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21, 2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018).

In August 2018, the U.S. Department of Transportation and the EPA published the proposed “Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule” (“SAFE rule”) that, among other things, proposes to withdraw the EPA's 2013 waiver of preemption for CARB's Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) standards that are applicable to new model year 2021 through 2025 light-duty vehicles. See 83 FR 42986 (August 24, 2018) and 78 FR 2112 (January 9, 2013). The baseline emissions projections in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP assume implementation of the ZEV mandate and GHG standards. In its comments on the SAFE proposal, CARB estimates an emission increase of 1.2 tons per day of NO

in the South Coast if the SAFE rule is finalized. See “Analysis in Support of Comments of the California Air Resources Board on the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021-2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks,” CARB, October 26, 2018. At this time, we cannot predict the date of final action on the SAFE rule, nor can we pre-judge the outcome of the final rule. This proposed action reflects the emissions projections in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. If the SAFE rule is finalized prior to our final rulemaking on the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, we will evaluate and address, as appropriate, the impact of the final SAFE rule on our proposed action.

B. Emissions Statement

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

Section 182(a)(3)(B)(i) of the Act requires states to submit a SIP revision requiring owners or operators of stationary sources of VOC or NO

to provide the state with statements of actual emissions from such sources. Statements must be submitted at least every year and must contain a certification that the information contained in the statement is accurate to the best knowledge of the individual certifying the statement. Section 182(a)(3)(B)(ii) of the Act allows states to waive the emissions statement requirement for any class or category of stationary sources that emit less than 25 tpy of VOC or NO

, if the state provides an inventory of emissions from such class or category of sources as part of the base year or periodic inventories required under CAA sections 182(a)(1) and 182(a)(3)(A), based on the use of emission factors established by the EPA or other methods acceptable to the EPA.

The preamble of the 2008 Ozone SRR states that if an area has a previously approved emissions statement rule for the 1997 ozone NAAQS or the 1-hour ozone NAAQS that covers all portions of the nonattainment area for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, such rule should be sufficient for purposes of the emissions statement requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.

The state should review the existing rule to ensure it is adequate and, if so, may rely on it to meet the emission statement requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Where an existing emission statement requirement is still adequate to meet the requirements of this rule, states can provide the rationale for that determination to the EPA in a written statement in the SIP to meet this requirement. States should identify the various requirements and how each is met by the existing emissions statement program. Where an emissions statement requirement is modified for any reason, states must provide the revision to the emissions statement as part of its SIP.

See 80 FR 12264, at 12291 (March 6, 2015).

2. Summary of the State's Submission

The 2016 AQMP addresses compliance with the emissions statement requirement in CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) for the 2008 ozone NAAQS by reference to District Rule 301 (“Permitting and Associated Fees”) that, among other things, requires emissions reporting from all stationary sources of NO

and VOC greater than or equal to 4 tpy. On May 20, 2019, CARB submitted certain provisions from a public draft version of District Rule 301 to the EPA for parallel processing. Once adopted, the District will be forwarding the revised rule to CARB for adoption and submittal to the EPA as a revision to the California SIP.

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission

For this action, we have evaluated the public draft version of District Rule 301 (

i.e.,

the relevant portions of the rule—paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)), as submitted for parallel processing on May 20, 2019, for compliance with the specific requirements for emissions statements under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B).

We find that District Rule 301 (paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)) applies within the entire ozone nonattainment area; applies to all permit holders and to all equipment operating under permit; and requires reporting, on an annual basis, of total emissions of various air pollutants, including VOC and NO

, if emissions of any one pollutant are equal to or greater than 4 tpy. Also, as required under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B), District Rule 301 requires certification that the information provided to the District is accurate to the best knowledge of the individual certifying the emissions data.

District Rule 301 covers a wide array of fees and is over 90 pages long. We are proposing action only on those few sections of the rule that are relevant to the emissions statement requirement.

We also note that, while the emissions reporting requirements in District Rule 301 do not apply to permitted sources of emissions less than 4 tpy, such an exclusion is allowed under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B)(ii) so long as the state includes estimates of such class or category of stationary sources in base year emission inventories and periodic inventories submitted under CAA sections 182(a)(1) and 182(a)(3)(A), based on EPA emission factors or other

methods acceptable to the EPA. We recognize that emissions inventories developed by the SCAQMD for the South Coast routinely include actual emissions estimates for all stationary sources or classes or categories of such sources, including those emitting less than 4 tpy, and that such inventories provide the basis for inventories submitted to meet the requirements of CAA sections 182(a)(1) and 182(a)(3)(A). By approval of emission inventories as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 182(a)(1) and 182(a)(3)(A), the EPA is implicitly accepting the methods and factors used by the SCAQMD to develop those emission estimates. Our most recent approval of a base year emission inventory for the South Coast is found at 77 FR 12674 (March 1, 2012) (approval of base year emission inventory for the 1997 ozone NAAQS). In addition, we are proposing approval of the base year inventory for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in this action.

Therefore, for the reasons described in the preceding paragraphs, we propose to approve the public draft version of District Rule 301 (paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)) as meeting the emissions statement requirements under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B). We will not take final action on District Rule 301 until we receive the formal SIP submittal package from CARB including the final adopted version of the relevant portions of the rule.

C. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and Control Strategy

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan provide for the implementation of all RACM as expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions in emissions from existing sources in the area as may be obtained through implementation of reasonably available control technology), and also provide for attainment of the NAAQS. The 2008 Ozone SRR requires that, for each nonattainment area required to submit an attainment demonstration, the state concurrently submit a SIP revision demonstrating that it has adopted all RACM necessary to demonstrate attainment as expeditiously as practicable and to meet any RFP requirements.

40 CFR 51.1112(c).

The EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM requirement in the General Preamble for the Implementation of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 and in a memorandum entitled “Guidance on the Reasonably Available Control Measure Requirement and Attainment Demonstration Submissions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas.”

In short, to address the requirement to adopt all RACM, states should consider all potentially reasonable control measures for source categories in the nonattainment area to determine whether they are reasonably available for implementation in that area and whether they would, if implemented individually or collectively, advance the area's attainment date by one year or more.

Any measures that are necessary to meet these requirements that are not already either federally promulgated, or part of the state's SIP, must be submitted in enforceable form as part of the state's attainment plan for the area.

See General Preamble, 57 FR 13498 at 13560 (April 16, 1992) and memorandum dated November 30, 1999, from John Seitz, Director, OAQPS, to Regional Air Directors, titled “Guidance on the Reasonably Available Control Measure Requirement and Attainment Demonstration Submissions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas.”

Id. See also 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979), and memorandum dated December 14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, Director, OAQPS, to Regional Air Directors, titled “Additional Submission on RACM From States with Severe One-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.”

For ozone nonattainment areas classified as Moderate or above, CAA section 182(b)(2) also requires implementation of reasonably available control technology (RACT) for all major sources of VOC and for each VOC source category for which the EPA has issued a control techniques guideline. CAA section 182(f) requires that RACT under section 182(b)(2) also apply to major stationary sources of NO

. In Extreme areas, a major source is a stationary source that emits or has the potential to emit at least 10 tpy of VOC or NO

(see CAA section 182(e) and (f)). Under the 2008 Ozone SRR, states were required to submit SIP revisions meeting the RACT requirements of CAA sections 182(b)(2) and 182(f) no later than 24 months after the effective date of designation for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS and to implement the required RACT measures as expeditiously as practicable but no later than January 1 of the 5th year after the effective date of designation (see 40 CFR 51.1112(a)). California submitted the CAA section 182 RACT SIP for the South Coast on July 18, 2014, and the EPA fully approved this submission at 82 FR 43850 (September 20, 2017).

2. Summary of the State's Submission

For the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, the District, CARB, and SCAG each undertook a process to identify and evaluate potential RACM that could contribute to expeditious attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast. We describe each agency's efforts below.

a. District's RACM Analysis

The District's RACM demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS focuses on stationary and area source controls, and it is described in Appendix VI-A (“Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)/Best Available Control Measures (BACM) Demonstration”) of the 2016 AQMP. Appendix VI-A contains analyses of all potential control measures for emission reduction opportunities, as well as economic and technological feasibility.

As a first step in the RACM analysis, the District prepared a detailed inventory of emissions sources that emit VOC and NO

to identify source categories from which emissions reductions would effectively contribute to attainment. Details on the methodology and development of the emission inventory are discussed in chapter 3 and appendix III of the 2016 AQMP. A total of 76 source categories are included in the base year emission inventory, 46 represent stationary and area sources and 30 for mobile sources.

2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-A, Table VI-A-3.

The District's RACM analysis builds upon a foundation of District rules developed for earlier ozone plans and approved as part of the SIP. We provide a list of the District's NO

and VOC rules approved into the California SIP in Table 1 of our TSD for this proposed action. The 86 SIP-approved District VOC or NO

rules listed in Table 1 of our TSD establish emission limits or other types of emissions controls for a wide range of sources, including use of solvents, refineries, gasoline storage, architectural coatings, spray booths, various types of commercial coatings, boilers, steam generators and process heaters, oil and gas production well, marine tank vessel operations, and many more. These rules have already provided significant and ongoing reductions toward attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031.

To demonstrate that the SCAQMD considered all candidate measures that are available and technologically and economically feasible, the District conducted a six-step analysis, as described below.

Step 1. 2015 Air Quality Technology Symposium (“2015 Symposium”).

The 2015 Symposium was held on June 10 and 11, 2015, with participation of technical experts and the public to solicit new and innovative concepts to assist in attaining the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS by the applicable attainment dates. The SCAQMD also conducted an extensive outreach to engage a wide range of stakeholders in the process.

Step 2. Reasonably Available Control Technology/Best Available Control Technology Analysis.

BACM, including BACT, is a requirement for certain PM

2.5

nonattainment areas. BACM is not a requirement for ozone nonattainment areas, but because the District addresses both PM

2.5

and ozone in its 2016 AQMP, the District prepared an analysis that addresses both RACT and BACT.

The District's Reasonably Available Control Technology/Best Available Control Technology (RACT/BACT) analysis found four VOC or NO

SCAQMD rules (

i.e.,

District Rules 462 (“Organic Liquid Loading”), 1115 (“Motor Vehicle Assembly Line Coating Operations”), 1118 (“Control of Emissions from Refinery Flares”) and 1138 (“Control of Emissions from Restaurant Operations”)) that are less stringent than EPA control techniques guidelines or analogous rules in other air districts. The SCAQMD evaluated the rules as candidate potential measures.

Step 3. EPA TSDs.

The District researched TSDs from recent EPA rulemakings on South Coast rules for EPA recommendations on potential control measures. The TSD for EPA's action on South Coast Rule 1125, “Metal Container, Closure, and Coil Coating Operations” (amended March 7, 2008) was the only applicable and recent TSD that met the criteria for review.

Step 4. Control measures in other areas.

The District reviewed control measures in other areas (

i.e.,

Ventura County, San Francisco Bay Area, San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento Metropolitan, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston-Galveston-Brazoria, New York, and New Jersey) to evaluate whether control technologies available and cost-effective within other areas would be available and cost-effective for use in the South Coast.

Step 5. Control Measures beyond RACM in 2012 AQMP.

The District updated the RACM analysis for four control measures that were determined to be beyond RACM in the analysis for the prior 2012 AQMP, including reconsideration of emission reductions of VOC from greenwaste composting.

Step 6. EPA Menu of Control Measures.

The Menu of Control Measures (MCM)

compiled by the EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards was created to provide information useful in the development of emission reduction strategies and to identify and evaluate potential control measures. District staff reviewed the MCM for point and nonpoint sources of NO

and VOC.

EPA, MCM,

http://www3.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/pdfs/MenuOfControlMeasures.pdf.

The District provides a comprehensive evaluation of its RACM control strategy in Appendix VI-A of the 2016 AQMP. The evaluation includes the following: Description of the sources within the category or sources subject to the rule; base year and projected baseline year emissions for the source category affected by the rule; discussion of the current requirements of the rule; and discussion of potential additional control measures, including, in many cases, a discussion of the technological and economic feasibility of the additional control measures. This includes comparison of each District rule to analogous control measures adopted by other agencies.

Based on its RACM analysis for stationary and area sources under its jurisdiction, the District identified the following three additional RACM with quantifiable VOC and NO

emission reductions: CMB-02—Emission Reductions from Replacement with Zero or Near-Zero NO

Appliances in Commercial and Residential Applications; CMB-03—Emission Reductions from Non-Refinery Flares; and BCM-10—Emission Reductions from Greenwaste Composting. These three RACM are included in the District's stationary source measures in Table 4-2 of the 2016 AQMP that the District Board adopted through Resolution 17-2. The District estimates that the three RACM measures, once adopted and implemented, will reduce VOC emissions by 1.9 tpd by 2022 and 2023 and by 2.2 tpd by 2031, and will reduce NO

emissions by 2.5 tpd by 2022 and 2023 and by 4.3 tpd 2031. See tables 4-9, 4-10 and 4-11 of the 2016 AQMP. As to the few remaining measures that the District rejected from its RACM analysis, the District determined that these measures would not collectively advance the attainment date or contribute to RFP due to the uncertain or non-quantifiable emissions reductions they would potentially generate.

See 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-A, page VI-A-40, and Attachments VI-A-1c, VI-A-1d, and VI-A-2.

Based on its evaluation of all available measures, the District concludes that the District's existing rules are generally as stringent as, or more stringent than the analogous rules in other districts. Further, the District concludes that, based on its comprehensive review and evaluation of potential candidate measures and the adoption of commitments to implement the three measures determined to be technologically and economically feasible, the District meets the RACM requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS for all sources under the District's jurisdiction.

b. Local Jurisdictions' RACM Analysis and Transportation Control Measures

Appendix IV-C, Regional Transportation Strategy and Control Measures, of the 2016 AQMP, contains the transportation control measures (TCMs) RACM component for the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. SCAG, the MPO for the South Coast region, conducted the local jurisdictions' TCM RACM analysis, which is based on SCAG's Final 2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (2016 RTP/SCS) and 2015 Federal Transportation Improvement Program (FTIP) as amended. The 2016 RTP/SCS and FTIP were developed in consultation with federal, state and local transportation and air quality planning agencies and other stakeholders. The four county transportation commissions

in the South Coast were involved in the development of the regional transportation measures in Appendix IV-C.

Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Riverside County Transportation Commission, Orange County Transportation Authority, and the San Bernardino County Transportation Authority (formerly known as the San Bernardino Associated Governments).

Appendix IV-C, page IV-C-1.

For the TCM RACM analysis, SCAG compared the list of measures implemented within the South Coast with those implemented in other ozone and PM

2.5

nonattainment areas.

SCAG then organized measures, including candidate measures and those measures currently implemented in the region, according to the sixteen categories specified in section 108(f)(1)(A) of the CAA. SCAG found a small number of candidate measures that were not currently implemented in the region and not included in the prior 2012 AQMP TCM RACM analysis. Attachment A (“Committed Transportation Control Measures (TCMs)”) to Appendix IV-C of the 2016 AQMP lists the TCM projects that are specifically identified and committed to in the 2016 AQMP. The complete listing of all candidate measures evaluated for the RACM determination is included in Attachment B (“2016 South Coast AQMP Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) Analysis—TCMs”) to

Appendix IV-C of the 2016 AQMP. Based on its comprehensive review of TCM projects in other nonattainment areas or otherwise identified, SCAG determined that the TCMs being implemented in the South Coast are inclusive of all RACM.

The specific nonattainment area SIPs that were reviewed for candidate TCMs are listed in Table 8 of Appendix IV-C of the 2016 AQMP.

Appendix IV-C, page IV-C-30.

c. CARB's RACM Analysis

CARB's RACM analysis is contained in Attachment VI-A-3 (“California Mobile Source Control Program Best Available Control Measures/Reasonably Available Control Measures Assessment”) (“BACM/RACM Assessment”) to Appendix VI-A of the 2016 AQMP. CARB's BACM/RACM assessment provides a general description of CARB's existing mobile source programs. A more detailed description of CARB's mobile source control program, including a comprehensive table listing on- and off-road mobile source regulatory actions taken by CARB since 1985, is contained in Attachment VI-C-1 to Appendix VI-C of the 2016 AQMP. The BACM/RACM assessment and 2016 State Strategy collectively contain CARB's evaluation of mobile source and other statewide control measures that reduce emissions of NO

and VOC in the South Coast. The 2016 State Strategy includes a commitment consisting of two components: A commitment to bring to the CARB Board, or otherwise take action on, certain defined new measures; and a commitment to achieve aggregate emissions reductions by specific dates.

2016 State Strategy, Chapter 3 (“Proposed SIP Commitment”), 26.

Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer products. CARB developed its 2016 State Strategy through a multi-step measure development process, including extensive public consultation, to develop and evaluate potential strategies for mobile source categories under CARB's regulatory authority that could contribute to expeditious attainment of the standard.

Through the process of developing the 2016 State Strategy, CARB identified certain defined measures as available to achieve additional VOC and NO

emissions reductions from sources under CARB jurisdiction, including tighter requirements for new light- and medium-duty vehicles (referred to as the “Advanced Clean Cars 2” measure), a low-NO

engine standard for vehicles with new heavy-duty engines, tighter emissions standards for small off-road engines, and more stringent requirements for consumer products, among others.

In adopting the 2016 State Strategy, CARB commits to bringing the defined measures to the CARB Board for action according to the specific schedule included as part of the strategy.

Appendix VI-A, Attachment VI-A-3, page VI-A-102.

2016 State Strategy, chapter 4 (“State SIP Measures”).

CARB Resolution 17-7 (dated March 23, 2017), 7.

Given the need for substantial emissions reductions from mobile and area sources to meet the NAAQS in California nonattainment areas, CARB has been a leader in the development of stringent control measures for on-road and off-road mobile sources and the fuels that power them. California has unique authority under CAA section 209 (subject to a waiver by the EPA) to adopt and implement new emission standards for many categories of on-road vehicles and engines, and new and in-use off-road vehicles and engines.

Historically, the EPA has allowed California to take into account emissions reductions from CARB regulations for which the EPA has issued waiver or authorizations under CAA section 209, notwithstanding the fact that these regulations have not been approved as part of the California SIP. However, in response to the decision by the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (“Ninth Circuit”) in

Committee for a Better Arvin

EPA,

the EPA has since approved mobile source regulations for which waiver authorizations have been issued as revisions to the California SIP.

See,

e.g.,

81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14447 (March 21, 2017), and 83 FR 8404 (February 27, 2018). See also

Committee for a Better Arvin,

786 F.3d 1169 (9th Cir. 2015).

CARB's mobile source program extends beyond regulations that are subject to the waiver or authorization process set forth in CAA section 209 to include standards and other requirements to control emissions from in-use heavy-duty trucks and buses, gasoline and diesel fuel specifications, and many other types of mobile sources. Generally, these regulations have been submitted and approved as revisions to the California SIP.

See,

e.g.,

the EPA's approval of standards and other requirements to control emissions from in-use heavy-duty diesel-powered trucks, at 77 FR 20308 (April 4, 2012), revisions to the California on-road reformulated gasoline and diesel fuel regulations at 75 FR 26653 (May 12, 2010), and revisions to the California motor vehicle inspection and maintenance program at 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 2010).

In the BACM/RACM Assessment, CARB concludes that, in light of the extensive public process culminating in the 2016 State Strategy, with the current mobile source program and proposed measures included in the 2016 State Strategy, there are no additional RACM that would advance attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast. As a result, CARB concludes that California's mobile source programs fully meet the RACM requirement.

Appendix VI-A, Attachment VI-A-3, page VI-A-106.

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission

As described above, the District already implements many rules to reduce VOC and NO

emissions from stationary sources in the South Coast. For the 2016 AQMP, the District evaluated a range of potentially available measures and committed to adopt certain additional measures it found to be reasonably available for implementation in the South Coast nonattainment area (specifically, control measures CMB-02, CMB-03 and BCM-10). We find that the process followed by the District in the 2016 AQMP to identify additional RACM is generally consistent with the EPA's recommendations in the General Preamble, that the District's evaluation of potential measures to be appropriate, and that the District has provided reasoned justifications for rejection of measures deemed not reasonably available.

With respect to mobile sources, CARB's current program addresses the full range of mobile sources in the South Coast through regulatory programs for both new and in-use vehicles. Moreover, we find that the process conducted by CARB to prepare the 2016 State Strategy was reasonably designed to identify additional available measures within CARB's jurisdiction, and that CARB has adopted those measures that are reasonably available (such as the low-NO

heavy-duty engine standard, among others). With respect to TCMs, we find that SCAG's process for identifying additional TCM RACM and conclusion that the TCMs being implemented in the South Coast (

i.e.,

the TCMs listed in Attachment A to Appendix IV-C of the 2016 AQMP) are inclusive of all TCM RACM to be reasonably justified and supported.

Based on our review of these RACM analyses and the District's and CARB's adopted rules, as well as the District's and CARB's commitments in the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, respectively, to adopt and implement

additional control measures, we propose to find that there are, at this time, no additional RACM (including RACT) that would advance attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast. For the foregoing reasons, we propose to find that the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP provides for the implementation of all RACM as required by CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1112(c).

D. Attainment Demonstration

1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements

An attainment demonstration consists of: (1) Technical analyses, such as base year and future year modeling, to locate and identify sources of emissions that are contributing to violations of the ozone NAAQS within the nonattainment area (

i.e.,

analyses related to the emission inventory for the nonattainment area and the emissions reductions necessary to attain the standard); (2) a list of adopted measures (including RACT controls) with schedules for implementation and other means and techniques necessary and appropriate for demonstrating RFP and attainment as expeditiously as practicable but no later than the outside attainment date for the area's classification; (3) a RACM analysis; and (4) contingency measures required under sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) of the CAA that can be implemented without further action by the state or the EPA to cover emissions shortfalls in RFP plans and failures to attain.

This subsection of today's proposed rule addresses the first two components of the attainment demonstration—the technical analyses and a list of adopted measures. Section III.C (Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and Control Technology) of this document addresses the RACM component, and section III.G (Contingency Measures) addresses the contingency measures component of the attainment demonstration in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.

78 FR 34178, at 34184 (June 6, 2013) (proposed rule for implementing the 2008 ozone NAAQS).

With respect to the technical analyses, section 182(c)(2)(A) of the CAA requires that a plan for an ozone nonattainment area classified Serious or above include a “demonstration that the plan . . . will provide for attainment of the ozone [NAAQS] by the applicable attainment date. This attainment demonstration must be based on photochemical grid modeling or any other analytical method determined . . . to be at least as effective.” The attainment demonstration predicts future ambient concentrations for comparison to the NAAQS, making use of available information on measured concentrations, meteorology, and current and projected emissions inventories of ozone precursors, including the effect of control measures in the plan.

Areas classified Extreme for the 2008 ozone NAAQS must demonstrate attainment as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than 20 years after the effective date of designation to nonattainment. The South Coast was designated nonattainment effective July 20, 2012, and the area must demonstrate attainment of the standards by July 20, 2032.

An attainment demonstration must show attainment of the standards for a full calendar year before the attainment date, so in practice, Extreme nonattainment areas must demonstrate attainment in 2031.

80 FR 12264.

The EPA's recommended procedures for modeling ozone as part of an attainment demonstration are contained in “Modeling Guidance for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM

2.5

, and Regional Haze” (“Modeling Guidance”).

The Modeling Guidance includes recommendations for a modeling protocol, model input preparation, model performance evaluation, use of model output for the numerical NAAQS attainment test, and modeling documentation. Air quality modeling is performed using meteorology and emissions from a base year, and the predicted concentrations from this base case modeling are compared to air quality monitoring data from that year to evaluate model performance.

Modeling Guidance, December 2014 Draft, EPA OAQPS; available at

https://www.epa.gov/scram/state-implementation-plan-sip-attainment-demonstration-guidance.

The 2014 modeling guidance updates, but is largely consistent with, the earlier “Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for the 8-Hour Ozone and PM

2.5

NAAQS and Regional Haze,” EPA-454/B-07-002, April 2007. Additional EPA modeling guidance can be found in 40 CFR 51 Appendix W, “Guideline on Air Quality Models,” 82 FR 5182 (January 17, 2017); available at

https://www.epa.gov/scram/clean-air-act-permit-modeling-guidance.

Once the model performance is determined to be acceptable, future year emissions are simulated with the model. The relative (or percent) change in modeled concentration due to future emissions reductions provides a Relative Response Factor (RRF). Each monitoring site's RRF is applied to its monitored base year design value to provide the future design value for comparison to the NAAQS. The Modeling Guidance also recommends supplemental air quality analyses, which may be used as part of a Weight of Evidence (WOE) analysis. A WOE analysis corroborates the attainment demonstration by considering evidence other than the main air quality modeling attainment test, such as trends and additional monitoring and modeling analyses.

The Modeling Guidance also does not require a particular year to be used as the base year for 8-hour ozone plans.

The Modeling Guidance states that the most recent year of the National Emissions Inventory may be appropriate for use as the base year for modeling, but that other years may be more appropriate when considering meteorology, transport patterns, exceptional events, or other factors that may vary from year to year.

Therefore, the base year used for the attainment demonstration need not be the same year used to meet the requirements for emissions inventories and RFP.

Modeling Guidance at section 2.7.1.

Ibid.

With respect to the list of adopted measures, CAA section 172(c)(6) requires that nonattainment area plans include enforceable emission limitations, and such other control measures, means or techniques (including economic incentives such as fees, marketable permits, and auctions of emission rights), as well as schedules and timetables for compliance, as may be necessary or appropriate to provide for timely attainment of the NAAQS.

Under the 2008 Ozone SRR, all control measures needed for attainment must be implemented no later than the beginning of the attainment year ozone season.

The attainment year ozone season is defined as the ozone season immediately preceding a nonattainment area's maximum attainment date.

See also CAA section 110(a)(2)(A).

40 CFR 51.1108(d).

40 CFR 51.1100(h).

2. Summary of the State's Submission

a. Photochemical Modeling

The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP updates the photochemical modeling for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and the 1997 ozone NAAQS and includes photochemical modeling for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The SCAQMD performed the air quality modeling for the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. The modeling relies on a 2012 base year and demonstrates attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS in 2022, the 1997 ozone NAAQS in 2023, and the 2008 ozone NAAQS in 2031.

As a general matter, the modeling for the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP represents an update to the photochemical modeling performed for the EPA-approved 2012 AQMP to account for more recent satellite-based input data, improved chemical gaseous and particulate mechanisms, improved computational resources and post-processing utilities, enhanced spatial and temporal allocations of the emissions inventory, and a revised attainment demonstration methodology. The modeling and modeled attainment demonstration are described in Chapter 5 (“Future Air Quality”) of the 2016 AQMP and in the 1-Hour Ozone Update. Appendix V (“Modeling and Attainment Demonstration”) of the 2016 AQMP provides a description of model input preparation procedures, various model configuration options, and model performance statistics. The modeling protocol is in Chapter 2 (“Modeling Protocol”) of Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP and contains all the elements recommended in the Modeling Guidance. Those include: Selection of model, time period to model, modeling domain, and model boundary conditions and initialization procedures; a discussion of emissions inventory development and other model input preparation procedures; model performance evaluation procedures; selection of days; and other details for calculating RRFs. Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP provides the coordinates of the modeling domain and thoroughly describes the development of the modeling emissions inventory, including its chemical speciation, its spatial and temporal allocation, its temperature dependence, and quality assurance procedures.

The modeling analysis used version 5.0.2 of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical model, developed by the EPA. To prepare meteorological input for CMAQ, the Weather and Research Forecasting model version 3.6 (WRF) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research was used. CMAQ and WRF are both recognized in the Modeling Guidance as technically sound, state-of-the-art models. The areal extent and the horizontal and vertical resolution used in these models were adequate for modeling South Coast ozone.

The WRF meteorological model results and performance statistics are described in Chapter 3 (“Meteorological Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses”) of Appendix V. The District evaluated the performance of the WRF model through a series of simulations and concluded that the daily WRF simulation for 2012 provided representative meteorological fields that well characterized the observed conditions. The District's conclusions were supported by hourly time series graphs of wind speed, direction, and temperature for the South Coast included as Attachment 1 (“WRF Model Performance Time Series”) to Appendix V.

Ozone model performance statistics are described in the 2016 AQMP Appendix V, Chapter 5 (“8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration”) and Chapter 8 (“1-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration”), which include tables of statistics recommended in the Modeling Guidance for 8-hour and 1-hour daily maximum ozone for the South Coast sub-regions (including the coastal, San Fernando, foothills, urban source, urban receptor, and Coachella Valley zones). Hourly time series are presented as well as density scatter plots, and plots of bias against concentration. Note that, because only relative changes are used from the modeling, the underprediction of absolute ozone concentrations does not mean that future concentrations will be underestimated.

After model performance for the 2012 base case was accepted, the model was applied to develop RRFs for the attainment demonstration. This entailed running the model with the same meteorological inputs as before, but with adjusted emissions inventories to reflect the expected changes between 2012 and the 2022, 2023, and 2031 attainment years. The base year or “reference year” modeling inventory was the same as the inventory for the modeling base case. The 2022, 2023, and 2031 inventory projects the base year into the future by including the effect of economic growth and emissions control measures. The set of 153 days from May 1 through September 30, 2012 was simulated and analyzed to determine daily 1-hour average and 8-hour average maximum ozone concentrations for the 2012, 2022, 2023, and 2031 emissions inventories. To develop the RRFs for the two 8-hour ozone NAAQS, only the top 10 days were used, consistent with EPA guidance; for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, only the top 3 days were used.

The Modeling Guidance addresses attainment demonstrations with ozone NAAQS based on 8-hour averages but does not address attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS. For the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS, the 2016 AQMP carried out the attainment test procedure consistent with the Modeling Guidance. For the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the District adapted the procedures from the Modeling Guidance with certain modifications intended to address the differences between the form of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS (

i.e.,

expected number of exceedances of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS) and the form of the 8-hour ozone standards (fourth highest daily maximum 8-hour average). The RRFs were calculated as the ratio of future to base year concentrations. The resulting RRFs were then applied to 2012 weighted base year design values

for each monitor to arrive at 2022, 2023, and 2031 future year design values.

The highest 2022 ozone design value is 0.123 ppm at the Fontana site; this value demonstrates attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS of 0.12 ppm. For the 1997 ozone NAAQS, the 2023 ozone design value is 0.084 ppm also at the Fontana site; this value demonstrates attainment with the corresponding 1997 ozone NAAQS of 0.085 ppm. The highest 2031 ozone design value is 0.075 ppm also at the Fontana site; this value demonstrates attainment of the corresponding 2008 ozone NAAQS of 0.075 ppm.

The Modeling Guidance recommends that RRFs be applied to the average of three three-year design values centered on the base year, in this case the design values for 2010-2012, 2011-2013, and 2012-2014. This amounts to a 5-year weighted average of individual year 4th high concentrations, centered on the base year of 2012, and so is referred to as a weighted design value.

2016 AQMP, Table 5-2; 1-Hour Ozone Update, Table 4.

The 2016 AQMP modeling includes a weight of evidence demonstration, based on a model performance evaluation of the temporal profile of on-road mobile source emissions and spatial surrogate profiles of area emissions.

The 1-Hour Ozone Update includes a weight of evidence demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS.

The demonstration is based on a sensitivity analysis of four scenarios of emission reductions.

Appendix V of 2016 AQMP, pages V-5-36—V-5-41.

1-Hour Ozone Update, 12.

Finally, the 2016 AQMP includes an “Unmonitored Area Analysis” for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS to assess the attainment status of locations other than monitoring sites.

The Modeling Guidance describes a “gradient adjusted spatial fields” procedure along with the EPA software (

i.e.,

Modeled Attainment Test Software) used to carry it out.

The 2016 AQMP and 1-Hour Ozone Update show concentrations below the NAAQS for all locations.

This analysis adds assurance to the attainment demonstrations that all locations in the

South Coast will attain the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022, the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023, and the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031.

Appendix V of 2016 AQMP, pages V-5-28—V-5-35.

Modeling Guidance, section 4.7.

2016 Ozone Plan, Figure 5-7, and 1-Hour Ozone Update, Figure 3.

b. Control Strategy for Attainment

The control strategy for attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the 1997 ozone NAAQS, and the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP relies on emissions reductions from already-adopted measures, commitments by the District to certain regulatory and nonregulatory initiatives and aggregate emission reductions, and commitments by CARB to certain regulatory and nonregulatory initiatives and aggregate emission reductions. Generally, the bulk of the emissions reductions on which the control strategies rely is expected to come from already-adopted measures, which are discussed in section III.C of this document. For the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, 1997 ozone NAAQS, and the 2008 ozone NAAQS, already-adopted measures are expected to achieve approximately 92 percent, 66 percent, and 67 percent of the reductions needed, respectively, from the 2012 base year to attain the NAAQS in 2022 (1-hour ozone NAAQS), 2023 (1997 ozone NAAQS) and 2031 (2008 ozone NAAQS). However, because already-adopted measures will not provide for attainment of the ozone NAAQS, the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP includes District and CARB commitments to achieve additional emissions reductions. These commitments are discussed and evaluated in the paragraphs that follow.

i. District's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments

The District has primary responsibility in the South Coast for the regulation of stationary and certain types of area sources. The District has more limited authority with respect to mobile sources but is authorized to implement various programs, such as incentive programs, to reduce emissions from such sources as well. The District has made various commitments in previous plans as part of the attainment strategies to achieve the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and the 1997 ozone NAAQS.

Through adoption of the 2016 AQMP, the District is updating its previously-approved aggregate emissions reduction commitments made as part of the attainment demonstrations for the 1997 ozone NAAQS (by 2023) in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP and for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS (by 2022) in the 2012 AQMP; the District is also adopting aggregate emissions reduction commitments for the attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The District's commitments in the 2016 AQMP are similar in concept to those that were made in connection with the previously approved plans.

More specifically, through adoption of the 2016 AQMP, the District has committed to develop, adopt, submit, and implement the ozone measures listed in tables 4-2 (stationary source ozone measures) and 4-4 (mobile source ozone measures) in Chapter 4 of the 2016 AQMP to meet or exceed the emissions reduction commitments in tables 4-9 (1-hour ozone NAAQS), 4-10 (1997 ozone NAAQS) and 4-11 (2008 ozone NAAQS).

SCAQMD, Resolution 17-2 (March 3, 2017), 9.

In Table 2 below, we show the District's updated aggregate emissions reduction commitments from the 2016 AQMP with the corresponding commitments from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP and the 2012 AQMP. The District's commitments from the 2016 AQMP are, in concept, the same as the District's commitments that the EPA has approved as part of the attainment demonstrations in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP and the 2012 AQMP. In short, the District has committed to develop, adopt, submit and implement the specific measures listed in tables 4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP on the adoption and implementation schedule set forth in those tables to meet or exceed the aggregate emissions reductions commitments. However, as with the earlier plans, the 2016 AQMP provides for a public process through which the District may substitute measures in tables 4-2 and 4-4 with other measures, provided that the overall equivalent emissions reductions by the adoption and implementation dates are maintained and that the applicable measure in table 4-2 or 4-4 is deemed by the District to be infeasible.

2016 AQMP, pages 4-52—4-55.

Table 2—District Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments

[Summer planning inventory, tpd]

Plan

Year 2022

VOC

Year 2023

VOC

Year 2031

VOC

2007 South Coast Ozone SIP

9.2

19.3

2012 AQMP

10.7

5.8

11.0

6.0

2016 AQMP

20.6

6.1

23.0

6.4

31.0

9.6

2007 AQMP, Table 4-2A, as revised by Appendix F of the 2011 Progress Report—see 77 FR 12674, 12691 (March 1, 2012). Reductions are from the 2002 base year. The double-dash mark (“--”) indicates that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.

SCAQMD, Resolution 12-19 (December 7, 2012), 7-8; Table 4-11 of the 2012 AQMP; and 79 FR 29712, 29720 (May 23, 2014). Reductions are from the 2008 base year. The double-dash mark (“--”) indicates that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.

2016 AQMP, tables 4-9, 4-10 and 4-11. Reductions are from the 2012 base year.

As noted above, the District expects to meet its emissions reduction commitments for NO

and VOC by adopting new control measures and programs and strengthening existing control measures, as identified in tables 4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP. These new or revised stationary control measures include stationary source regulatory measures, measures that recognize emissions reductions from energy and climate change-related programs, voluntary incentive measures, and other miscellaneous measures. In Table 3 below, we have combined the District's new stationary and mobile measures listed in tables 4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP into a single table but only list those measures for which the District provides estimates of associated emissions reductions. The emissions reductions for individual measures shown in Table 3 are not intended to be enforceable but are estimates prepared by the District to show how the District expects at the present time to achieve the aggregate emissions reductions for 2022, 2023, and 2031. The enforceable components of the District's commitments are to effectuate the

measures to which it has committed on the schedule that it has adopted, and to achieve the aggregate emissions reductions by the given years.

Table 3—District Stationary and Mobile Source Measures

Number

Title

Adoption

Implementation

period

emission reductions

(tpd)

2022

2023

2031

VOC emission reductions

(tpd)

2022

2023

2031

CMB-01

Transition to Zero and Near-Zero Emission Technologies for Stationary Sources

2018

Ongoing

2.2

2.5

6.0

1.0

1.2

2.8

CMB-02

Emission Reductions from Replacement with Zero or Near-Zero NO

Appliances in Commercial and Residential Applications

2018

2020-2031

1.1

2.8

CMB-03

Emission Reductions from Non-Refinery Flares

2018

2020

1.4

1.5

0.4

CMB-04

Emission Reductions from Restaurant Burners and Residential Cooking

2018

2022

0.8

1.6

CMB-05

Further NO

Reductions from RECLAIM Assessment

2022

2025

5.0

BCM-10

Emission Reductions from Greenwaste Composting

2019

2020

1.5

1.8

FUG-01

Improved Leak Detection and Repair

2019

2022

2.0

CTS-01

Further Emission Reductions from Coatings, Solvents, Adhesives, and Sealants

2017/2021

2020-2031

1.0

2.0

ECC-02

Co-Benefits from Existing Residential and Commercial Building Energy Efficiency Measures

2018

Ongoing

0.3

1.1

a c

0.1

0.3

ECC-03

Additional Enhancements in Reducing Existing Residential Building Energy Use

2018

Ongoing

1.0

1.2

2.1

a c

0.2

0.3

Stationary Sources Totals

6.7

7.3

20.1

6.1

6.4

9.6

MOB-10

Extension of the SOON

Provision for Construction/Industrial Equipment

Ongoing

1.9

MOB-11

Extended Exchange Program

Ongoing

2.5

2.9

1.0

MOB-14

Emission Reductions from Incentive Programs

2016-2024

9.5

7.8

Mobile Sources Totals

13.9

15.8

10.7

Stationary and Mobile Sources Totals

20.6

23.1

30.8

6.1

6.4

9.6

Notes:

86 percent of 2023 reductions planned for the control measures.

5 tpd reduction by 2025.

Corresponding VOC reductions from other measures.

Surplus Off-Road Opt-In for NO

Program.

The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.

Source: 2016 AQMP, tables 4-2, 4-4, 4-9, 4-10 and 4-11.

There are several “Further Deployment of Cleaner Technologies” measures (also referred to in today's action as “new technology” measures) in the 2016 State Strategy that identify the SCAQMD as an implementing agency, along with CARB and the EPA. CARB indicated that the implementation of the new technology measures is based on a combination of incentive funding, development of regulations, and quantification of emissions reduction benefits from operational efficiency actions and deployment of autonomous vehicles, connected vehicles, and intelligent transportation systems. The District has proposed numerous mobile source measures to further the implementation of CARB's new technology measures. These include proposals to continue several existing incentive programs (

e.g.,

the Carl Moyer Memorial Air Quality Standards Attainment Program, the Surplus Off-Road Opt-In for NO

Program, and Proposition 1B—Goods Movement Emissions Reduction Program). In the 2016 AQMP, the District includes 15 mobile source measures to reduce VOC and NO

emissions. With the exception of measures MOB-10, 11, and 14, the District has not yet quantified or assigned future reductions to their mobile source measures.

Other proposed District stationary and mobile sources measures

with future reductions not yet quantified include the following.

2016 AQMP, Table 4-4.

All measures to be implemented by SCAQMD except: ECC-01 (various agencies); FLX-01 (SCAQMD and other parties); MOB-5, MOB-7, MOB-8, and MOB-9 (SCAQMD and CARB); MOB-6 (CARB, Bureau of Automotive Repair (BAR), SCAQMD), and MOB-12 (SoCal Regional Rail Authority).

• Stationary source measures: ECC-01, Co-Benefit Emission Reductions from Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Programs, Policies, and Incentives; FLX-01, Improved Education and Public Outreach; FLX-02, Stationary Source VOC Incentives; MCS-01, Improved Breakdown Procedures and Process Re-Design; MCS-02, Application of All Feasible Measures; and ECC-04, Reduced Ozone Formation and Emission Reductions from Cool Roof Technology.

• Mobiles source measures: EGM-01, Emission Reductions from New Development and Redevelopment Projects; MOB-01, Emission Reductions at Commercial Marine Ports; MOB-02, Emission Reductions at Rail Yards and Intermodal Facilities; MOB-03, Emission Reductions at Warehouse

Distribution Centers; MOB-04, Emission Reductions at Commercial Airports; MOB-05, Penetration of Partial Zero-Emission and Zero-Emission Vehicles; MOB-06, Accelerated Retirement of Older Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles; MOB-07, Accelerated Penetration of Partial Zero-Emission and Zero-Emission Light-Heavy- and Medium-Heavy-Duty Vehicles; MOB-08, Accelerated Retirement of Older On-Road Heavy-Duty Vehicles; MOB-09, On-Road Mobile Source Emission Reduction Credit Generation Program; MOB-12, Further Emission Reductions from Passenger Locomotives; and MOB-13, Off-Road Mobile Source Emission Reduction Credit Generation Program.

ii. CARB Aggregate Emissions Reduction Commitments

Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer products. CARB's 2016 State Strategy includes a comprehensive set of measures to achieve emissions reductions needed in the South Coast from mobile sources and consumer products. The measures in the 2016 State Strategy identify the regulatory and programmatic approaches necessary to deploy cleaner technologies and ensure sufficient penetration to meet the NAAQS deadlines. The measures in the 2016 State Strategy include technology-forcing engine standards, cleaner burning fuels, durability requirements and inspection programs to ensure clean in-use performance, sales requirements for advanced technologies, pilot programs to identify and advance new technologies, and incentive programs to accelerate technology deployment.

To be more specific, the 2016 State Strategy includes actions to increase the penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the light-duty vehicle sector. For heavy-duty vehicles, the 2016 State Strategy includes combustion engine technology that is effectively 90 percent cleaner than current standards. The 2016 State Strategy also includes targeted introduction of zero-emission technologies in heavy-duty applications that are suited to early adoption of ZEV technologies. The 2016 State Strategy includes a California action to establish new low-NO

certification requirements, coupled with in-use performance requirements. The strategy also provides greater certification flexibility for advanced technologies. The measures could reduce emissions from today's heavy-duty trucks by up to 90 percent. Because trucks licensed outside of California account for a large portion of truck activity in California, the 2016 State Strategy calls for the EPA to develop a national low-NO

engine standard and cites formal petitions for such rulemaking that have been submitted by several California air districts. In response to the petitions, on November 13, 2018, the EPA announced the Cleaner Trucks Initiative, a future rulemaking to update NO

standards for highway heavy-duty trucks and engines.

See

https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/cleaner-truck-initiative.

The 2016 State Strategy includes similar proposed actions for off-road sources, with a focus on deployment of ZEV technologies in smaller equipment types such as forklifts and airport ground support equipment. A low-emission diesel standard builds upon CARB's existing fuels framework by requiring that low-emission diesel fuels to be used to achieve greater criteria pollutant reductions. For sources that are primarily under federal jurisdiction, such as interstate trucks, locomotives, and ocean-going vessels, the 2016 State Strategy calls for EPA action to provide the needed emission reductions from these sources by setting more stringent engine standards. Lastly, the 2016 State Strategy contains a measure to address VOC emissions from consumer products, the largest source category of VOCs in California. Chapter 4 (“State SIP Measures”) of the 2016 State Strategy provides a detailed description of the various measures included in the 2016 State Strategy, background and regulatory history for the measures, a description of the specific proposed actions to be taken and timing for those actions, an estimate of the related emissions reductions, and the specific SIP commitment by CARB with respect to each of the measures.

Through adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, CARB is updating its previously-approved aggregate emissions reduction commitments made as part of the attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS (by 2023) in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP, and CARB is adopting aggregate emissions reduction commitments for the attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. CARB's commitments in the 2016 State Strategy are similar in concept to those that were made in connection with the previously approved plan.

More specifically, through adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, CARB has committed to bring to its Board for consideration the list of measures contained in Attachment A to CARB Resolution 17-7 according to the schedule set forth in Attachment A, and to achieve aggregate emissions reductions of 113 tpd of NO

and 50 to 51 tpd of VOC by 2023, and 111 tpd of NO

and 59 to 60 tpd of VOC by 2031 in the South Coast.

CARB, Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017), 7.

In Table 4, below, we show CARB's updated aggregate emissions reduction commitments from the 2016 State Strategy with the corresponding commitments from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP for the 1997 ozone NAAQS and from the 2012 AQMP for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS. CARB's commitments from the 2016 State Strategy are, in concept, similar to CARB's commitments that the EPA has approved as part of the attainment demonstrations in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP and 2012 AQMP. As with the earlier plans, the 2016 State Strategy includes estimates of the emissions reductions from each of the individual new measures, but CARB's overall commitment is to achieve the total emission reductions necessary to attain the NAAQS.

Table 4—CARB Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments

[Summer planning inventory, tpd]

Plan

Year 2022

VOC

Year 2023

VOC

Year 2031

VOC

2007 South Coast Ozone SIP

Defined Measures

141

New Technology Measures

241

2012 AQMP

Defined Measures

New Technology Measures

150

2016 South Coast Ozone SIP

Defined and New Technology Measures

113

50-51

111

59-60

2009 State Strategy Update, 20; also see 76 FR 57872, 57882 (September 16, 2011). Reductions are from the 2002 base year. The double-dash mark (“--”) indicates that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.

2012 AQMP, appendix VII, page VII-46; CARB Resolution 13-3 (January 25, 2013); and letter from Richard W. Cory, Executive Officer, CARB, to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX, dated May 2, 2014. Reductions are from the 2008 base year. The double-dash mark (“--”) indicates that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.

2016 State Strategy, Table 4, and CARB Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017). Reductions are from the 2012 base year.

For previous South Coast ozone plans, CARB's aggregate emissions reduction commitments distinguished between those that were to be achieved through adoption and implementation of defined measures and those that were to be achieved through “new technology” measures. In this case, “new technology” measures refer to provisions in an ozone plan for an Extreme area that anticipate development of new control techniques or improvement of existing control technologies as provided for in CAA section 182(e)(5). For the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, CARB's aggregate emissions reduction commitments include both types of measures. However, CARB also identifies new technology measures for which it is requesting approval by the EPA under CAA section 182(e)(5). Table 5 below divides CARB's estimates of emissions reductions between new technology measures (

i.e.,

those identified for approval under CAA section 182(e)(5) by CARB) and the other measures (which we refer to as “defined measures.”)

Table 5—Estimates of Emissions Reductions From Defined and New Technology Measures in the 2016 State Strategy

[Summer planning inventory, tpd, from 2012 base year emissions]

Year

VOC

Defined measures

New technology

measures

Total

Defined measures

New technology

measures

Total

2023

9-10

50-51

108

113

2031

21-22

59-60

111

Sources: 2016 State Strategy, Table 4. Tonnage values for defined measures determined by subtracting all the new technology measures from the total emission reduction estimate. The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.

Table 6 below lists CARB's defined measures and associated reductions from the 2016 State Strategy. As shown in Table 6, CARB estimates that the defined measures would reduce emissions of NO

and VOC by 5 tpd and 9-10 tpd, respectively, by 2023 and by 14 tpd and 21-22 tpd, respectively, by 2031. Table 6 includes only those CARB defined measures for which CARB has developed emissions estimates.

We note that the emissions estimates shown in Table 6 are only estimates and are not binding on CARB under the terms of the commitments CARB has made for the South Coast as part of the 2016 State Strategy. Rather, CARB has committed to take certain regulatory and nonregulatory actions according to the schedule in the 2016 State Strategy and to achieve aggregate emissions reductions by 2023 and 2031. The reductions from any one measure in Table 6 could be more or less than the estimates shown.

The defined measures in the 2016 State Strategy for which future reductions are not yet quantified include: Lower In-Use Emission Performance Assessment for on-road light-duty vehicles (CARB and the California Bureau of Automotive Repair); Medium and Heavy-Duty GHG Gas Phase 2 (CARB, EPA), Innovative Technology Certification Flexibility (CARB), and Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle Buses (CARB) for on-road heavy-duty vehicles; Incentivize Low Emission Efficient Ship Visits for ocean-going vessels (CARB); Zero-Emission Off-Road Emission Reduction Assessment (CARB), Zero-Emission Off-Road Worksite Emission Reduction Assessment (CARB), and Transport Refrigeration Units Used for Cold Storage for off-road equipment (CARB).

Table 6—Defined Measures in the 2016 State Strategy

Measure

Adoption

Implementation

Time frame

Agency

emission

reductions

(tpd)

2023

2031

VOC emission

reductions

(tpd)

2023

2031

On-Road Light-Duty:

Advanced Clean Cars 2

2020-2021

2026

CARB

0.6

0.4

On-Road Heavy-Duty:

Lower In-Use Emission Performance Level

2017-2020

2018+

CARB

NYQ

<0.1

Low-NO

Engine Standard—California Action

2019

2023

CARB

Innovative Clean Transit

2017

2018

CARB

<0.1

0.1

<0.1

Last Mile Delivery

2018

2020

CARB

<0.1

0.4

<0.1

Incentive Funding to Achieve Further Emission Reductions from On-Road Heavy Duty Vehicles

ongoing

2016

CARB, SCAQMD

0.4

Ocean-Going Vessels:

At-Berth Regulation Amendments

2017-2018

2023

CARB

0.3

<0.1

Off-Road Equipment:

Zero-Emission Off-Road Forklift Regulation Phase 1

2020

2023

CARB

0.1

Zero-Emission Airport Ground Support Equipment

2018

2023

CARB

<0.1

Small Off-Road Engines

2018-2020

2022

CARB

0.7

Low-Emission Diesel Requirement

by 2020

2023

CARB

0.3

NYQ

Consumer Products:

Consumer Products Program

2019-2021

2020 +

CARB

1-2

4-5

Total Emission Reductions

9-10

21-22

Notes:

On March 22, 2018, CARB adopted the “South Coast On-Road Heavy-Duty Vehicle Incentive Measure.” On April 25, 2019, the EPA proposed to approve the measure as achieving 1 tpd of NO

reductions in 2023. See 84 FR 17365.

NYQ means not yet quantified. A dash (-) refers to de minimis reductions.

The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.

Source: 2016 State Strategy, Table 4; Attachment A to CARB Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017).

As noted above, the 2016 State Strategy identifies certain new technology measures for which CARB is requesting approval by the EPA under the provisions of section 182(e)(5) of the CAA. The 2016 AQMP does not rely on the new technology measures in the 2016 State Strategy to demonstrate RFP, but it does rely on them for attainment of the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast by the applicable attainment dates.

Table 7 below lists CARB's new technology measures and associated reductions from the 2016 State Strategy. As shown in Table 7, CARB estimates that the new technology measures would reduce emissions of NO

and VOC by 108 tpd and 41 tpd by 2023, and 97 tpd and 37 tpd by 2031, respectively. As noted above in connection with CARB's defined measures, the emissions estimates shown in Table 7 are only estimates and are not binding on CARB under the terms of the commitments CARB has made for the South Coast as part of the 2016 State Strategy. Rather, CARB has committed to take certain regulatory and nonregulatory actions according to the schedule in the 2016 State Strategy and to achieve aggregate emissions reductions by 2023 and 2031. CARB's aggregate emissions reduction commitments for years 2023 and 2031 do not distinguish between the defined measures and the new technology measures. The new technology measures in the 2016 State Strategy are accompanied by an enforceable commitment by CARB to develop, adopt and submit contingency measures by 2028 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS if the new technology measures do not achieve planned reductions, as required under CAA section 182(e)(5).

100

CARB's commitment to submit contingency measures for section 182(e)(5) purposes thus relates to attainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. With respect to attainment for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, CARB is relying on the previously-submitted and approved commitment to submit contingency measures for section 182(e)(5) purposes from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP.

101

100

CARB Resolution 17-8, 9.

101

See 76 FR 57872, 57882 (September 16, 2011) referencing CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011), and in a letter dated November 18, 2011, from James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.

Table 7—New Technology Measures in 2016 State Strategy

Title

Adoption

Implementation

Time frame

Agency

emission

reductions

(tpd)

2023

2031

VOC emission

reductions

(tpd)

2023

2031

On-Road Light-Duty:

Further Deployment of Cleaner Technologies

ongoing

2016

CARB, SCAQMD, EPA

On-Road Heavy-Duty:

Low-NO

Engine Standard—Federal Action

2019

2024

EPA

Further Deployment of Cleaner Technologies

ongoing

2016

CARB, SCAQMD, EPA

Aircraft:

Further Deployment of Cleaner Technologies

ongoing

2016

CARB, SCAQMD, EPA

NYQ

Locomotives:

More Stringent National Locomotive Emission Standards

2017

2023

EPA

< 0.1

Further Deployment of Cleaner Technologies

ongoing

2016

CARB, SCAQMD, EPA

0.3

Ocean-Going Vessels:

Tier 4 Vessel Standards

2016-2018

2025

CARB, IMO

NYQ

Further Deployment of Cleaner Technologies

ongoing

2016

CARB, SCAQMD, EPA

NYQ

Off-Road Equipment:

Further Deployment of Cleaner Technologies

ongoing

2016

CARB, SCAQMD, EPA

Total Emission Reductions

108

Notes:

CARB requested the EPA approve these measures under the provisions of section 182(e)(5) of the CAA.

In today's action we also refer to these as new technology measures.

NYQ means not yet quantified. A dash (-) refers to de minimis reductions.

The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.

Source: 2016 State Strategy, Table 4; Attachment A to CARB Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017).

In its 2016 State Strategy, CARB commits to achieving the aggregate emissions reductions needed in the South Coast for attaining the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS from the defined and new technology measures. Even though the District does not have a new technology emissions reduction commitment in the 2016 AQMP, its numerous incentive programs in tables 4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP will help advance new control technologies that will achieve long-term reductions and ultimately reduce CARB's remaining commitment for reductions in 2023 and 2031.

SCAQMD's Technology Advancement Office (TAO) is responsible for expediting the development, demonstration and commercialization of cleaner technologies and clean-burning fuels in the South Coast. TAO's mobile source projects have included development and demonstration of less-polluting automobiles, buses, trucks, construction equipment, boats, locomotives and other off-road vehicles involving advancements in engine design, improved batteries, fuel cells, and improved powertrains for electric vehicles. Other projects involve adapting or designing vehicles to run on clean fuels and developing the infrastructure needed to produce and deliver those fuels.

102

TAO's projects for stationary sources have included a wide array of low-NO

combustion systems, low-VOC coatings and processes, and clean energy production systems including fuel cells, solar power, and other renewable energy systems.

103

The technical areas currently identified by TAO as the highest priority include fuel cells for transportation and power generation; diesel alternatives; electric and hybrid-electric technologies; off-road applications of alternative fuel technologies; VOC reduction technologies for stationary sources; and infrastructure development.

104

102

SCAQMD technology advancement web page at

http://yourstory.aqmd.gov/home/technology,

February 6, 2019.

103

Id.

104

Id.

In its 2016 State Strategy, CARB builds on and updates the new technology measures in prior state strategies (

e.g.,

the 2007 State Strategy as revised in 2009 and 2011). To implement the long-term strategy, CARB has committed to a process that will help ensure that the long-term measures are adopted and that reductions are achieved by the beginning of the last full ozone season before the attainment date. CARB is coordinating a government, private, and public effort to establish emission goals for critical mobile and stationary emission source categories. The effort includes periodic assessment of technology advancement opportunities and updates to its Board and the public regarding new emission control opportunities and progress in achieving the long-term measure reductions. CARB's commitment for implementing the long-term strategy also includes reporting back to its Board within one year of adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, and yearly thereafter.

105

This report will include:

105

2016 State Strategy, 46.

1. The status of partnerships with the South Coast, San Joaquin Valley, the EPA, other government agencies, and the private sector to pursue research, demonstration, and pilot projects for further advancement of zero and near-zero emission technologies;

2. The status of the Financial Incentives Funding Action Plan, progress in identifying and implementing funding mechanisms, and status of State level incentive programs and allocation of funding to the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley regions;

3. The status of technology assessments, emerging technologies and emissions reduction opportunities. CARB staff will also report on implementation of actions identified by the SCAQMD and San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District as well as actions contained in the California Sustainable Freight Action Plan, the 2030 Target Scoping Plan Update, SB 375, and other complementary efforts and the criteria pollutant benefits that result from these actions; and

4. Recommendations on the development of further regulatory measures and schedules for development for inclusion in the SIP.

106

E.g.,

On March 22, 2018, CARB staff conducted a public meeting to brief the Board on substantial progress made in implementing various elements of the 2016 State Strategy and 2016 AQMP. The staff presentation can be viewed at

https://www.arb.ca.gov/board/books/2018/032218/18-2-5pres.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery.

Approximately 70 percent of the reductions needed to meet the ozone standard in the South Coast in 2031 comes from existing or proposed regulatory actions. This includes ongoing implementation of the existing control program, combined with new regulatory measures identified in the 2016 State Strategy. The regulatory approach forms the core of the strategy. The remaining 30 percent of reductions is from additional efforts to enhance the deployment of cleaner technologies through new incentive or new regulatory actions. These actions will be implemented through the cleaner technologies measures for each mobile sector to provide further emissions reductions from the deployment of technologies necessary to meet the South Coast's Extreme ozone nonattainment area needs. The approaches contained in the cleaner technology measures include:

• Incentive programs to further accelerate technology penetration;

• Identification of additional regulatory approaches based on further technology assessments;

• Increased efficiency in moving people and freight;

• Use of emerging transportation technologies, such as intelligent transportation systems and autonomous and connected vehicles; and

• Further federal actions, including support for demonstration programs, and supporting policies to achieve reductions from sources under federal and international regulatory authority.

The specific combination of approaches to achieve reductions under these cleaner technologies concepts will vary by source sector and the timing of needed reductions. Further details regarding the approach for each sector and identification of technologies are available in the measure descriptions in Chapter 4 (“State SIP Measures”) of the 2016 State Strategy.

To achieve the emission reductions from the cleaner technology measures included in the 2016 State Strategy, the South Coast is also identifying mechanisms under its local authority to achieve emission reductions from mobile sources within the region. Given the need for emissions reductions, significant investments to support incentive programs will be critical to accelerate the penetration of the cleanest technologies in the South Coast. CARB staff has been working with SCAQMD and the EPA to identify funding strategies and ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place for an approvable SIP.

c. Attainment Demonstration

The 2016 AQMP includes a new attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS and updated attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour and 1997 ozone NAAQS. In December 2018, CARB submitted the 1-Hour Ozone Update, which revises the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration in the 2016 AQMP. Each of the attainment demonstrations includes enforceable commitments for additional reductions necessary for attainment as discussed in the previous sections. To determine the additional NO

reductions needed, the State and District evaluated scenarios for a controlled emissions level of NO

necessary for attainment of the ozone standards. The “controlled emissions level” represents, based on modeling scenarios and implementation of adequate control measures, the remaining attainment year NO

inventory consistent with the modeling used to demonstrate attainment. Table 8 below summarizes the controlled emissions level of NO

selected by the District and CARB as necessary for attainment of the ozone standards.

Table 8—NO

Controlled Emissions Level for Ozone Attainment

Attainment year

2022

2023

2031

Standard

1-hour Ozone

1997 Ozone

2008 Ozone.

Controlled Emissions Level (tpd)

269

141

96.

i. Updated Attainment Demonstration for the 1-Hour Ozone NAAQS

The 2016 AQMP updates the EPA-approved 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration from the 2012 AQMP to reflect updated emissions inventories, photochemical models and modeling techniques. In December 2018, CARB submitted to the EPA the 1-Hour Ozone Update, which revises the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration in the 2016 AQMP to account for updated emissions inventories that were not available at the time the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration was completed for the 2016 AQMP.

Table 9 below summarizes the updated attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by listing the base year (2012) emissions level, the modeled attainment emissions level, and the reductions that the District has committed to achieve through adoption of the 2016 AQMP. The updated 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration does not rely on emissions reductions from the 2016 State Strategy. Also, unlike the approved 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration from the 2012 AQMP, the updated attainment demonstration does not rely on new technology measures.

As shown in Table 9, the majority of emission reductions needed for attaining the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022 comes from baseline measures. These account for approximately 92 percent of the NO

(233 tpd) and 95 percent of the VOC (113 tpd) reductions needed for attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS. The baseline measures reflect CARB rules adopted by November 2015 and District rules adopted by December 2015.

107

Based on the modeling analysis in the 1-Hour Ozone Update, the District determined that additional reductions of 21 tpd of NO

and 6 tpd of VOC would be sufficient for demonstrating attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022. The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP relies on the District's enforceable commitments to achieve aggregate emissions reductions through implementation of the measures described above in section III.D.2.b.i of this document to provide the reductions necessary to achieve the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022.

107

See the TSD for this proposed action for a list of District rules with post-2012 compliance dates affecting future baseline emissions projections. Also see 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-C, Attachment VI-C-1 for a list of CARB rules adopted post-2012.

Table 9—Summary of 1-Hour Ozone NAAQS Attainment Demonstration

[Summer planning inventory, tpd]

VOC

A. 2012 Base Year Emissions Level

522.5

499.7

B. 2022 Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Level

286.8

382.7

C. Set-Aside (Phase-Out of Toxics, General Conformity, SIP Reserve)

3.1

4.5

D. 2022 Adjusted Baseline (

i.e.

, includes Set-Aside) (B + C)

289.9

387.2

E. 2022 Modeled Attainment Emissions Level

269.3

381.2

F. Total Reductions Needed from 2012 Base Year Levels to Demonstrate Attainment (A−E)

253.2

118.5

G. Reductions from Baseline (

i.e.

, adopted) Measures, as adjusted to account for Set-Aside (A−D)

232.6

112.5

H. Reductions from District's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments from 2016 AQMP

21.0

6.1

I. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments from 2016 State Strategy—Defined Measures

J. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments from 2016 State Strategy—New Technology Measures

K. Total Reductions from District and CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy (H + I + J)

21.0

6.1

L. Total Reductions from Baseline Measures plus District and CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy (G + K)

253.6

118.6

M. 2022 Emissions with Reductions from Control Strategy (A−L)

268.9

381.1

Attainment demonstrated?

Yes

Notes and sources:

While attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is dependent almost exclusively on NO

reductions, both NO

and VOC emissions reductions reduce 1-hour ozone levels.

2016 AQMP, Appendix III, Attachment B.

1-Hour Ozone Update, 7.

2016 AQMP, Table 4-9.

ii. Updated Attainment Demonstration for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS

In the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, the District and State collectively update the attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS. The 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy update the EPA-approved 1997 ozone NAAQS ozone attainment demonstration from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP to reflect updated emissions inventories, photochemical models and modeling techniques. Table 10 below summarizes the updated attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS by listing the base year (2012) emissions level, the modeled attainment emissions level, and the reductions that the District and CARB have committed to achieve through adoption of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy.

As shown in Table 10, the majority of emission reductions needed for attaining the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023 comes from baseline measures. These account for approximately 66 percent of the NO

(251 tpd) reductions needed for attainment of the 1997 ozone NAAQS. The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP relies on the District's and CARB's enforceable commitments to achieve aggregate emission reductions through implementation of the measures described above in section III.D.2.b.i and III.D.2.b.ii of this document to provide the reductions (beyond those from baseline measures) that are necessary to achieve the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023.

Table 10—Summary of 1997 Ozone NAAQS Attainment Demonstration

[Summer planning inventory, tpd]

A. 2012 Base Year Emissions Level

522

B. 2023 Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Level

269

C. Set-Aside (Phase-Out of Toxics, General Conformity, SIP Reserve)

D. 2023 Adjusted Baseline (

i.e.

, includes Set-Aside) (B + C)

272

E. 2023 Modeled Attainment Emissions Level

141

F. Total Reductions Needed from 2012 Base Year Levels to Demonstrate Attainment (A−E)

381

G. Reductions from Baseline (

i.e.

, adopted) Measures, as adjusted to account for Set-Aside (A−D)

250

H. Reductions from District's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments from 2016 AQMP

I. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments from 2016 State Strategy—Defined Measures

J. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments from 2016 State Strategy—New Technology Measures

108

K. Total Reductions from District and CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy (H + I + J)

136

L. Total Reductions from Baseline Measures plus District and CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy (G + K)

386

M. 2023 Emissions with Reductions from Control Strategy (A−L)

136

Attainment demonstrated?

Yes

Notes and sources:

VOC emissions are not included in this table because attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is dependent almost exclusively on NO

reductions.

2016 AQMP, Appendix III, Attachment B; Year 2023 baseline estimates for aircraft, oceangoing vessels, and commercial harbor craft have been updated based on information contained in the 2018 SIP Update, page A-35.

2016 AQMP, Appendix III, pages II-2-90 through III-2-92.

2016 AQMP, Appendix V, page V-4-2.

2016 AQMP, Table 4-10.

2016 State Strategy, Table 4; CARB's aggregate emission reduction commitment is for 113 tpd of NO

reductions by 2023; for analytical purposes only, we have distinguished the estimated emissions reductions for defined measures from those for new technology measures.

iii. Attainment Demonstration for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS

In the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, the District and State collectively demonstrate attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Table 11 below summarizes the attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS by listing the base year (2012) emissions level, the modeled attainment emissions level, and the reductions that the District and CARB have committed

to achieve through adoption of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy.

As shown in Table 11, the majority of emission reductions needed for attaining the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031 comes from baseline measures. These account for approximately 66 percent of the NO

(283 tpd) reductions needed for attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP relies on the District's and CARB's enforceable commitments to achieve aggregate emission reductions through implementation of the measures described above in section III.D.2.b.i and III.D.2.b.ii of this document to provide the reductions (beyond those from baseline measures) that are necessary to achieve the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031.

Table 11—Summary of 2008 Ozone NAAQS Attainment Demonstration

[Summer planning inventory, tpd]

A. 2012 Base Year Emissions Level

522

B. 2031 Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Level

238

C. Set-Aside (Phase-Out of Toxics, General Conformity, SIP Reserve)

D. 2031 Adjusted Baseline (

i.e.

, includes Set-Aside) (B + C)

239

E. 2031 Modeled Attainment Emissions Level

F. Total Reductions Needed from 2012 Base Year Levels to Demonstrate Attainment (A−E)

426

G. Reductions from Baseline (

i.e.

, adopted) Measures, as adjusted to account for Set-Aside (A−D)

283

H. Reductions from District's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments from 2016 AQMP

I. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments from 2016 State Strategy—Defined Measures

J. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments from 2016 State Strategy—New Technology Measures

K. Total Reductions from District and CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy (H + I + J)

142

L. Total Reductions from Baseline Measures plus District and CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy (G + K)

425

M. 2031 Emissions with Reductions from Control Strategy (A−L)

Attainment demonstrated?

Yes

Notes and sources:

VOC emissions are not included in this table because attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is dependent almost exclusively on NO

reductions.

2016 AQMP, Appendix III, Attachment B; Year 2031 baseline estimates for aircraft, oceangoing vessels, and commercial harbor craft have been updated based on information contained in the 2018 SIP Update, page A-35.

2016 AQMP, Appendix III, pages II-2-90 through III-2-92.

2016 AQMP, Appendix V, page V-4-2.

2016 AQMP, Table 4-11.

2016 State Strategy, Table 4; CARB's aggregate emission reduction commitment is for 111 tpd of NO

reductions by 2031; for analytical purposes only, we have distinguished the estimated emissions reductions for defined measures from those for new technology measures.

3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission

a. Photochemical Modeling

To approve a SIP's attainment demonstration, the EPA must make several findings. First, we must find that the demonstration's technical bases, including the emissions inventories and air quality modeling, are adequate. As discussed above in section III.A of this action, we are proposing to approve the base year emissions inventory and to find that the future year emissions projections in the 2016 AQMP reflect appropriate calculation methods and that the latest planning assumptions are properly supported by SIP-approved stationary and mobile source measures.

With respect to the photochemical modeling in the 2016 AQMP and 1-Hour Ozone Update, based on our review of appendix V of the 2016 AQMP and the 1-Hour Ozone Update, the EPA finds that the modeling is adequate for purposes of supporting the attainment demonstration.

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First, we note the extensive discussion of modeling procedures, tests, and performance analyses called for in the Modeling Protocol (

i.e.,

chapter 2 of Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP) and the good model performance. Second, we find the WRF meteorological model results and performance statistics including hourly time series graphs of wind speed, direction, and temperature for the South Coast, to be satisfactory and consistent with our Modeling Guidance.

109

Performance was evaluated for each month in each zone for the entire year of 2012.

110

Diurnal variation of temperature, humidity and surface wind are well represented by WRF. Geographically, winds are predicted most accurately at the inland urban receptor sites. Accurate wind predictions in this region of elevated ozone concentrations is one of the most critical factors to simulate chemical transport. Overall, the daily WRF simulation for 2012 provided representative meteorological fields that characterized the observed conditions well.

108

The EPA's review of the modeling and attainment demonstration is discussed in greater detail in section V. Modeling and Attainment Demonstration of the TSD.

109

Modeling Guidance, 30.

110

Temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and wind speed were evaluated in terms of normalized gross bias and normalized gross error.

The model performance statistics for ozone are described in chapters 5 and 8 of Appendix V and are based on the statistical evaluation recommended in the Modeling Guidance. Model performance was provided for 8-hour and 1-hour daily maximum ozone for each of the South Coast sub-regions.

111

The model performance varied by zone, with over-prediction in the “Coastal zone” and under-prediction in the “San Fernando,” and “Foothills” zones. The model ozone predictions in the “Urban Receptor” zone, where the design site station is located, agree reasonably well with the measurements.

112

The 2016

AQMP also presents ozone frequency distributions, scatter plots, and plots of bias against concentration. The scatter and density scatter plots show low bias at high concentrations, and higher bias at low concentrations. The modeling guidance requires the use of only the top 10 days in the RRF calculation, indicating that the modeling capability to predict high concentrations is more important than the prediction of low concentrations. The supplemental hourly time series show generally good performance, though many individual daily ozone peaks are underpredicted. Note that, because only relative changes are used from the modeling, the underprediction of absolute ozone concentrations does not mean that future concentrations will be underestimated. The 2016 AQMP's unmonitored area analysis showed concentrations below 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS for all locations.

113

This analysis adds assurance to the attainment demonstrations that all locations in the South Coast will attain the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023 and the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031. In addition, the weight of evidence analyses presented in the 2016 AQMP and 1-Hour Update provide additional information with respect to the sensitivity to emission changes and improve the understanding of the model performance. We are proposing to find the air quality modeling adequate to support the updated attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone and 1997 ozone NAAQS and the attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, based on reasonable meteorological and ozone modeling performance, supported by the unmonitored area and weight of evidence analyses.

111

These zones are represented by the following ozone monitoring sites: “Coastal”(Costa Mesa, LAX, Long Beach, Mission Viejo, West Los Angeles); “Urban Source”(Anaheim, Central Los Angeles, Compton, La Habra, Pico Rivera, Pomona) ”San Fernando”(Reseda, Santa Clarita, Burbank); “Foothills”(Azusa, Glendora, Pasadena); and “Urban Receptor”(Crestline, Fontana, Lake Elsinore, Mira Loma, Redlands, Rubidoux, San Bernardino, Upland).

112

Table V-5-7; 2012 Base Year 8-Hour Average Ozone Performance for Days When Regional 8-Hour Maximum ≥ 60 parts per billion in the “Urban

Receptor” region. Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP, page V-5-13.

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Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP, Unmonitored Area Analysis, V-5-28 to V-5-35. Spatial projections of the 8-hour and 1-hour design values were also provided. See Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP, Spatial Projections of 8-Hour Ozone Design Values, pages V-5-25 to V-5-28, and 1-Hour Ozone Update, Spatial Projections of 1-Hour Ozone Design Values, p. 10-11.

b. Control Strategy for Attainment

Second, we must find that the emissions reductions that are relied on for attainment are creditable and are sufficient to provide for attainment. As shown in tables 9, 10, and 11 above, the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP relies on adopted measures to achieve a significant portion of the emissions reductions needed to attain the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022, the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023, and the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031. The balance of the reductions needed for attainment is in the form of enforceable commitments to take certain specific regulatory and nonregulatory actions within prescribed periods and to achieve aggregate tonnage reductions of VOC or NO

by specific years in the South Coast. The enforceable commitments made by the District and CARB through adoption of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy are similar to the enforceable commitments that the EPA has approved as part of attainment demonstrations in previous California air quality plans and that have withstood legal challenge.

114

See

Committee for a Better Arvin

EPA,

786 F.3d 1169 (9th Cir. 2015) (approval of state commitments to propose and adopt emissions control measures and to achieve aggregate emissions reductions for San Joaquin Valley ozone and particulate matter plans upheld);

Physicians for Social Responsibility—Los Angeles

EPA,

9th Cir., memorandum opinion issued July 25, 2016 (approval of air district commitments to propose and adopt measures and to achieve aggregate emissions reductions for South Coast 1-hour ozone plan upheld).

As noted in the preceding paragraph the EPA has previously accepted enforceable commitments in lieu of adopted control measures in attainment demonstrations when the circumstances warrant them and when the commitments meet specific criteria. We believe that, with respect to all three ozone NAAQS, circumstances warrant the consideration of enforceable commitments as part of the attainment demonstrations for the South Coast. First, as shown in tables 9, 10 and 11 above, a substantial portion of the emission reductions needed to demonstrate attainment in the South Coast come from measures adopted prior to adoption and submittal of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy. As a result of these State and District efforts, most emissions sources in the South Coast are currently subject to stringent emission limitations and other requirements, leaving few opportunities to further reduce emissions. In the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, the District and CARB identified potential control measures that could provide many of the additional emissions reductions needed for attainment. These are described above in sections III.D.2.b.i and III.D.2.b.ii of this action. However, the timeline needed to develop, adopt, and implement these measures went beyond the required submittal date for the attainment demonstration for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. These circumstances warrant the District's and CARB's reliance on enforceable commitments as part of the attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour, 1997, and 2008 ozone NAAQS.

Given the State's demonstrated need for reliance on enforceable commitments, we now consider the three factors the EPA uses to determine whether the use of enforceable commitments in lieu of adopted measures to meet CAA planning requirements is approvable: (a) Does the commitment address a limited portion of the statutorily-required program; (b) is the state capable of fulfilling its commitment; and (c) is the commitment for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.

i. Commitments are a Limited Portion of Required Reductions

For the first factor, we look to see if the commitment addresses a limited portion of a statutory requirement and review the amount of emissions reductions needed to demonstrate attainment in a nonattainment area. For this calculation, reductions assigned to the new technologies provision (

i.e.,

CAA section 182(e)(5) new technology measures) are not counted as commitments.

115

CAA section 182(e)(5) specifically allows EPA to approve an attainment demonstration that relies on reductions from new technologies. This provision is separate from the requirement in CAA section 172(c)(6) for enforceable emissions limitations under which enforceable commitments are considered. As a result, reductions attributed in the attainment demonstration to new technologies are not considered part of the State's enforceable commitments for purposes of determining the percentage of reductions needed for attainment that remain as commitments.

Tables 9, 10, and 11 above show emission reductions needed to demonstrate attainment of the 1-hour, 1997, and 2008 8-hour NAAQS in the South Coast and the aggregate emissions reductions commitments by the District and CARB. Based on these values, we have calculated the percent of required reductions that would come from enforceable commitments by the District and CARB (other than new technology measures). See Table 12 below.

Table 12—Enforceable Aggregate Commitments as a Percentage of Required Reductions

Attainment year

2022

VOC

2023

2031

Tons per day

Percentage of Required Reductions

11%

Notes and sources:

CAA section 182(e)(5) reductions are not included below.

The percentage of required emissions from enforceable commitments is calculated by dividing the sum of Rows H and I in tables 9, 10, and 11 above by Row F.

As shown in Table 12, when compared to the total reductions needed to demonstrate attainment (not including the CAA section 182(e)(5) reductions in the attainment demonstration), the remaining portion of the enforceable commitments represents a small fraction of the reductions needed. Historically, the EPA has approved SIPs with enforceable commitments in the range of approximately 10 percent of the total needed reductions for attainment.

116

Thus, we find that the District's and CARB commitments in the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy for the South Coast address a limited proportion of the required emission reductions.

116

See our approval of the following plans: San Joaquin Valley (SJV) PM

Plan at 69 FR 30005 (May 26, 2004); SJV 1-hour ozone plan at 75 FR 10420 (March 8, 2010); Houston-Galveston 1-hour ozone plan at 66 FR 57160 (November 14, 2001); South Coast 1997 8-hour ozone plan at 77 FR 12674 (March 1, 2012); and South Coast 1-hour ozone plan at 79 FR 52526 (September 3, 2014).

ii. The State Is Capable of Fulfilling its Commitment

For the second factor, we consider whether the District and CARB are capable of fulfilling their commitments. CARB adopted and submitted the 2016 State Strategy to achieve the reductions necessary from mobile sources, fuels, and consumer products to meet ozone and PM

2.5

NAAQS over the next 15 years. The 2016 State Strategy builds on the 2007 State Strategy and its revisions. The 2016 State Strategy shows that CARB has made significant progress in fulfilling its enforceable commitments from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP. The District has also made significant progress in meeting its enforceable commitments in its prior AQMPs.

The District and CARB also have a history of funding incentive grant programs to reduce emissions from the on- and off-road engine fleets. CARB has also continued to work with the District on defining funding needs and mechanisms for implementing the 2016 State Strategy. Working with CARB, the District has estimated that sustained funding levels of approximately $1 billion per year through 2031 will be needed to support the necessary scale of technology transformation. The District developed a Draft Financial Incentives Funding Action Plan (“Funding Action Plan”)

117

that describes existing sources of funding, new funding opportunities, activities that will be undertaken to pursue each potential funding mechanism, as well as a schedule and reporting process. As part of this effort, the District has identified a broad spectrum of potential funding mechanisms that could meet the region's funding needs. The District established a stakeholder-based 2016 AQMP Funding Working Group that began meeting in August 2017 to help further develop and implement the Funding Action Plan. CARB will continue to collaborate with the District on the Funding Action Plan, as well as play a key role in implementing state-level efforts that are faci

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