Partial Grant and Partial Denial of Clean Air Act Waiver Application Submitted by Growth Energy To Increase the Allowable Ethanol Content of Gasoline to 15 Percent; Decision of the Administrator

Federal RegisterNov 4, 2010

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

[EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211; FRL-9215-5]

Partial Grant and Partial Denial of Clean Air Act Waiver Application Submitted by Growth Energy To Increase the Allowable Ethanol Content of Gasoline to 15 Percent; Decision of the Administrator

AGENCY:

Environmental Protection Agency.

ACTION:

Notice of partial waiver decision.

SUMMARY:

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is partially granting Growth Energy's waiver request application submitted under section 211(f)(4) of the Clean Air Act. This partial waiver allows fuel and fuel additive manufacturers to introduce into commerce gasoline that contains greater than 10 volume percent ethanol and no more than 15 volume percent ethanol (E15) for use in certain motor vehicles if certain conditions are fulfilled. We are partially approving the waiver for and allowing the introduction into commerce of E15 for use only in model year 2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, which includes passenger cars, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles. We are denying the waiver for introduction of E15 for use in model year 2000 and older light-duty motor vehicles, as well as all heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles, highway and off-highway motorcycles, and nonroad engines, vehicles, and equipment. The Agency is deferring a decision on the applicability of a waiver to model year 2001 through 2006 light-duty motor vehicles until additional test data, currently under development, is available.

ADDRESSES:

EPA has established a docket for this action under Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211. All documents and public comments in the docket are listed on the

http://www.regulations.gov

Web site. Publicly available docket materials are available either electronically through

http://www.regulations.gov

or in hard copy at the Air and Radiation Docket in the EPA Headquarters Library, EPA West Building, Room 3334, 1301 Constitution Ave., NW., Washington, DC. The Public Reading Room is open from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, excluding holidays. The telephone number for the Reading Room is (202) 566-1744. The Air and Radiation Docket and Information Center's Web site is

http://www.epa.gov/oar/docket.html

. The electronic mail (e-mail) address for the Air and Radiation Docket is:

a-and-r-Docket@epa.gov

, the telephone number is (202) 566-1742 and the fax number is (202) 566-9744.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

Robert Anderson, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Mailcode: 6405J, Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW., Washington, DC 20460;

telephone number:

(202) 343-9718;

fax number:

(202) 343-2800;

e-mail address: Anderson.Robert@epa.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Table of Contents

I. Executive Summary

• MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

• Durability/Long-Term Exhaust Emissions

• Immediate Exhaust Emissions

• Evaporative Emissions

• Materials Compatibility

• Drivability and Operability

• MY2000 and Older Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

• MY2001-2006 Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

• Nonroad Engines, Vehicles, and Equipment (Nonroad Products)

• Heavy-Duty Gasoline Engines and Vehicles

• Highway and Off-Highway Motorcycles

• Conditions on Today's Partial Waiver

• Misfueling Mitigation Measures Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM)

II. Introduction

A. Statutory Background

B. Growth Energy Application and Review Process

C. Today's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) on Misfueling Mitigation Measures

III. Method of Review

IV. Waiver Submissions and Analysis of Light-Duty Motor Vehicle Issues

A. MY2007 and Newer Motor Vehicles

1. Exhaust Emissions—Long-Term Durability

a. Growth Energy's Submission

b. Public Comment Summary

c. EPA Response Regarding the Need for Long-Term Exhaust Emissions (Durability) Testing

i. General Long-term Exhaust Emissions (Durability) Concerns

ii. Response to Growth Energy's First Argument

iii. Conclusion to Growth Energy's Second Argument

d. Durability Studies and EPA Analysis

i. DOE Catalyst Study Overview

ii. Vehicle Selection and Matching

iii. Fuels and Blending

iv. Emissions Test Protocol

v. Mileage Accumulation

vi. Powertrain Component Inspection

vii. Summary and Conclusions of the Final Results of the DOE Catalyst Study

2. Exhaust Emissions—Immediate Effects for MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

a. Growth Energy's Submission

b. Public Comment Summary

c. EPA Analysis

d. Conclusion

3. Evaporative Emissions on MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

a. Introduction

b. Growth Energy's Submission

c. Public Comment Summary

d. EPA Analysis

e. Conclusion

4. Materials Compatibility for MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

a. Introduction

b. Growth Energy's Submission

c. Public Comment Summary

d. EPA Analysis

e. Conclusions

5. Driveability and Operability for MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

a. Introduction

b. Growth Energy's Submission

c. Public Comment Summary

d. EPA Analysis

e. Conclusions

6. Overall Immediate and Long-Term Emissions Conclusions

B. MY2001-2006 Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

C. MY2000 and Older Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

1. Growth Energy's Submission

2. Public Comment Summary

3. EPA Analysis and Conclusion

a. Scope of MY2000 and Older Motor Vehicles Data to Support a Waiver Decision

b. Exhaust Emissions—Long-Term Durability

i. General Exhaust Emissions Durability Concerns

ii. Immediate Exhaust Emission Impacts

c. Evaporative Emissions

d. Materials Compatibility

V. Nonroad Engines, Vehicles and Equipment (Nonroad Products)

A. Introduction

B. Growth Energy Submission

C. Public Comment Summary

D. EPA Analysis

1. Scope of Nonroad Data to Support a Waiver Decision

2. Long-Term Exhaust Emissions (Durability)

3. Immediate Exhaust Emission Effects

4. Evaporative Emissions

5. Materials Compatibility

6. Driveability and Operability

E. Conclusion

VI. Heavy-Duty Gasoline Engines and Vehicles

VII. Motorcycles

VIII. E12 Midlevel Ethanol Blends

A. First Argument: E12 Is Already Used in the Marketplace With No Reported Problems

1. ADM Argument

2. Comments

3. EPA Analysis

B. Second Argument: EPA Effectively Allows Ethanol Blends Greater Than E10

1. ADM Argument

2. EPA Analysis

C. Third Argument: EPA's Models Allow Greater Than 10 vol% Ethanol

1. ADM Argument

2. API and Alliance Comments

3. EPA Analysis

D. Fourth Argument: ADM's Argument for an E12 Waiver

1. ADM Argument

2. API, AllSAFE and Alliance Comments

3. EPA Response

E. Fifth Argument: E12 Is “Substantially Similar” to Certification Fuel

1. ADM Argument

2. API, AllSAFE and Alliance Comments

3. EPA Response

F. EPA Conclusion

IX. Legal Issues Arising in This Partial Waiver Decision

A. Partial Waiver and Conditions of E15 Use

B. Notice and Comment Procedures

C. “Useful Life” Language in Section 211(f)(4)

X. Waiver Conditions

A. Fuel Quality Conditions

B. Misfueling Mitigation Conditions and Strategies

1. Fuel Pump Dispenser Labeling

2. Fuel Pump Labeling and Fuel Sample Survey

3. Proper Documentation of Ethanol Content on Product Transfer Documents

4. Public Outreach

XI. Reid Vapor Pressure

XII. Partial Waiver Decision and Conditions

I. Executive Summary

In March 2009, Growth Energy and 54 ethanol manufacturers petitioned the Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA” or “The Agency”) to allow the introduction into commerce of up to 15 volume percent (vol%) ethanol in gasoline. In April 2009, EPA sought public comment on the Growth Energy petition and subsequently received about 78,000 comments. Prior to today's action, ethanol was limited to 10 vol% in motor vehicle gasoline (E10).

In today's action, EPA is partially granting Growth Energy's waiver request based on our careful analysis of the available information, including test data and public comments. This partial grant waives the prohibition on fuel and fuel additive manufacturers on the introduction into commerce of gasoline containing greater than 10 vol% ethanol and no more than 15 vol% ethanol (E15) for use in certain motor vehicles. More specifically, today's action has two components. First, we are approving the waiver for and allowing the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in Model Year (MY) 2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, which includes passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles.

Second, we are denying the waiver for introduction into commerce of E15 for use in MY2000 and older light-duty motor vehicles, as well as heavy-duty gasoline highway engines and vehicles (

e.g.,

delivery trucks). Highway and off-highway motorcycles, and nonroad engines, vehicles, and equipment (nonroad products;

e.g.,

boats, snowmobiles, and lawnmowers) typically use the same gasoline as highway motor vehicles; this decision is also a denial of a waiver for introducing motor vehicle gasoline into commerce containing more than 10 vol% ethanol for use in all of those products. The Agency is deferring a decision on the applicability of a waiver with respect to MY2001-2006 light-duty motor vehicles to await additional test data. The Department of Energy (DOE) has stated that it will complete testing on these vehicles in November, after which EPA will take appropriate action.

For purposes of today's decision, “MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles” include MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles (LDV), light-duty trucks (LDT), and medium-duty passenger vehicles (MDPV).

To help ensure that E15 is only used in MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, EPA has developed a proposed rule (described below) with the express purpose of mitigating the potential for misfueling of E15 into vehicles and engines not approved for its use. EPA believes the proposed safeguards against misfueling would provide the most practical way to mitigate the potential for misfueling with E15. Moreover, the proposed rule, when adopted, would satisfy the misfueling mitigation conditions of today's partial waiver described below and would promote the successful introduction of E15 into commerce. However, if parties covered by this waiver (fuel and fuel additive manufacturers, which include renewable fuel producers and importers, petroleum refiners and importers, and ethanol blenders) desire to introduce E15 into commerce prior to a final rule being issued, they may do so provided they submit and EPA approves a plan that demonstrates that the misfueling mitigation conditions will be satisfied. In addition to the misfueling mitigation conditions, E15 must also meet certain fuel quality specifications before it may be introduced into commerce.

To receive a waiver, as prescribed by the Clean Air Act, a fuel or fuel additive manufacturer must demonstrate that a new fuel or fuel additive will not cause or contribute to the failure of an engine or vehicle to achieve compliance with the emission standards to which it has been certified over its useful life. Reflecting that EPA's emission standards have continued to evolve and become more stringent over time, the in-use fleet is composed of vehicles and engines spanning not only different technologies, but also different emissions standards. Since ethanol affects different aspects of emissions, a wide range of data and information covering a wide range of highway and nonroad vehicles, engines, and equipment would be necessary for approval of an E15 waiver that would allow E15 to be introduced into commerce for use in all motor vehicles and all other engines and vehicles using motor vehicle gasoline (“full waiver”). Growth Energy did not provide the necessary information to support a full waiver in several key areas, especially long-term durability emissions data necessary to ensure that all motor vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline highway engines and vehicles, highway and off-highway motorcycles and nonroad products would continue to comply with their emission standards over their full useful life. In 2008, DOE began emissions durability testing on 19 Tier 2 motor vehicle models that would provide this data for MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles (“DOE Catalyst Study”).

Consequently, the Agency delayed a decision until the DOE test program was completed for these motor vehicles in September 2010.

DOE embarked on the study, in consultation with EPA, auto manufacturers, fuel providers and others, after enactment of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which significantly expanded the Federal Renewable Fuel Standard Program for increasing the use of renewable fuels in transportation fuel in order to reduce imported petroleum and emissions of greenhouse gases.

EPA reached its decision on the waiver request based on the results of the DOE Catalyst Study and other information and test data submitted by Growth Energy and in public comments. EPA also applied engineering judgment, based on the data in reaching its decision. Specifically, consistent with past waiver decisions, the Agency evaluated Growth Energy's waiver request and made its decision based on four factors: (1) Exhaust emissions impacts—long-term (known as durability) and immediate; (2) evaporative system impacts—both immediate and long-term; (3) the impact of materials compatibility on emissions; and, (4) the impact of drivability and operability on emissions. The Agency's conclusions are summarized below and additional information on each subject is provided later in this decision document.

MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

For MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, the DOE Catalyst Study and other information before EPA adequately demonstrates that the impact of E15 on overall emissions, including both immediate

and durability related

emissions, will not cause or contribute to violations of the emissions standards for these motor vehicles. Likewise, the data and information adequately show that E15 will not lead to violations of the evaporative emissions standards, so long as the fuel does not exceed a Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of 9.0 psi in the summertime control season.

The information on materials compatibility and drivability also supports this conclusion.

In past waiver decisions, we have referred to “immediate” emissions as “instantaneous”

emissions. “Immediate” and “instantaneous” are synonymous in this context.

EPA regulates the vapor pressure of gasoline sold at retail stations during the summer ozone season (June 1 to September 15) to reduce evaporative emissions from gasoline that contribute to ground-level ozone and diminish the effects of ozone-related health problems. Gasoline needs a higher vapor pressure in the wintertime for cold start purposes.

Durability/Long-Term Exhaust Emissions

The DOE Catalyst Study involved 19 high sales volume car and light-duty truck models (MY2005-2009 motor vehicles produced by the top U.S. sales-based automobile manufacturers) that are all designed for and subject to the Tier 2 motor vehicle emission standards. The purpose of the program was to evaluate the long term effects of E0 (gasoline that contains no ethanol and is the certification test fuel for emissions testing), E10, E15, and E20 (a gasoline-ethanol blend containing 20 vol% ethanol) on the durability of the exhaust emissions control system, especially the catalytic converter (catalyst), for Tier 2 motor vehicles. Analysis of the motor vehicles' emissions results at full useful life (120,000 miles) and emissions deterioration rates showed no significant difference between the E0 and E15 fueled groups. Three motor vehicles aged on EO fuel had failing emissions levels and one additional motor vehicle failed one of several replicate tests. One E15-aged motor vehicle had failing emissions.

However, none of the emissions failures appeared to be related to the fuel used. There were no emissions component or material failures during aging that were related to fueling. In addition, a review of the emission deterioration rates over the course of the test program revealed no statistically significant difference in emissions deterioration with E15 in comparison to E0. Using standard statistical tools, the test results support the conclusion that E15 does not cause or contribute to the failure of MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles in achieving their emissions standards over their useful lives. These results confirm EPA's engineering assessment that the changes manufacturers made to their motor vehicles (calibration, hardware,

etc.

) to comply with the Agency's stringent Tier 2 emission standards (which began to phase in with MY2004) have resulted in the capability of Tier 2 motor vehicles to accommodate the additional enleanment caused by E15 and be compatible with ethanol concentrations up to E15.

. EPA's certification data show that all gasoline-fueled cars and light-duty trucks were fully phased in to the Tier 2 standards by MY2007 even though the program did not require the phase-in to be complete until MY2009. Consequently, EPA believes it appropriate to apply these test results to all MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles.

It should be noted that the Dodge Caliber vehicle aged on E15 failed Tier 2 Bin 5 FUL standards on E0. However, this vehicle met Tier 2 Bin 5 FUL standards when tested on E15. The Agency could not determine the cause.

See

65 FR 6698 (February 10, 2000).

Immediate Exhaust Emissions

Scientific information supports a conclusion that motor vehicles experience an immediate emissions impact independent of motor vehicle age (and therefore emission control technology) when operating on gasoline-ethanol blends. Nitrogen oxide (NO

) emissions generally increase while volatile organic compound (VOC) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions decrease. The available data supports a conclusion that the immediate emissions impacts of E15 on Tier 2 motor vehicles are likely to have the same pattern as the immediate emissions impacts of E10 on older motor vehicles (

i.e.,

emissions increase while VOC and CO emissions decrease). Although the magnitude of the immediate impact is expected to be slightly greater with E15, Tier 2 motor vehicles generally have a significant compliance margin at the time of certification and later on in-use (when they are in customer service) that should allow them to meet their emission standards even if they experience the predicted immediate NO

increases from E15 when compared to E0. The results of the DOE Catalyst Study reflect both the immediate emissions effects as well as any durability effects as described above, and the Tier 2 motor vehicles continued to comply with their emissions standards at their full useful life. As noted above, none of the emissions failures appeared to be related to the fuel used. Based on this immediate exhaust emissions information, coupled with the durability test data and conclusions, E15 is not expected to cause Tier 2 motor vehicles to exceed their exhaust standards over their useful lives when operated on E15.

Evaporative Emissions

Both diurnal and running loss evaporative emissions increase as fuel volatility increases. Diurnal evaporative emissions occur when motor vehicles are not operating and experience the change in temperature during the day, such as while parked. Running loss evaporative emissions occur while motor vehicles are being operated. Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) is the common measure of the volatility of gasoline. E15 that meets an RVP limit of 9.0 pounds per square inch (psi) during the summer (which is equal to the RVP of E0) should not produce higher diurnal or running loss evaporative emissions than E0. We expect MY2007 and newer vehicles to meet evaporative emissions standard on 9.0 psi E15. There are concerns with E15 having an RVP greater than 9.0 psi. When ethanol is blended at 15 vol%, a 10.0 psi RVP fuel compared to 9.0 psi RVP fuel will have substantially higher evaporative emissions levels that must be captured by the emissions control system (a carbon filled canister and related system elements). This increase in evaporative emissions is beyond what manufacturers have been required to control, based on the motor vehicle certification testing for the emissions standards. Test results highlight the concern that fuel with an RVP greater than 9.0 psi during the summer will lead to motor vehicles exceeding their evaporative emission standards in-use. Additionally, as explained in the misfueling mitigation measures proposed rule, EPA interprets the 1.0 psi waiver in CAA section 211(h) as being limited to gasoline-ethanol blends that contain 10 vol% ethanol. Therefore, given the significant potential for increased evaporative emissions at higher gasoline volatility levels, and the lack of data to resolve how this would impact compliance with the emissions standards, today's waiver is limited to E15 with a summertime RVP no higher than 9.0 psi.

Other potential issues for evaporative emissions of motor vehicles operated on E15 are increased permeation and long-term (durability) impacts.

Available test data indicate that for Tier 2 motor vehicles any increase in evaporative emissions as a result of permeation is limited and within the evaporative

compliance margins for these motor vehicles. This is consistent with the demonstration of evaporative emissions system durability after aging on E10 that was required beginning with the Tier 2 motor vehicle standards, for the purpose of limiting permeation. With respect to durability of the evaporative emissions control systems, data from several aspects of the DOE Catalyst Study point to the expected durability of the evaporative emissions control system of Tier 2 motor vehicles on E15. First, there appears to be no evidence of an increase in evaporative emissions system onboard diagnostic system codes being triggered by E15 compared to E0. Second, teardown results of the 12 motor vehicles tested (six models with E0 and six models with E15) found no abnormalities for E15 motor vehicles compared to E0 motor vehicles.

Finally, evaporative testing on four of the Tier 2 motor vehicles over the course of the test program found no increased deterioration in evaporative emissions with E15 in comparison to E0.

Therefore, after taking into account all of these sources of evaporative emissions data, the evidence supports a conclusion that as long as E15 meets a summertime control season gasoline volatility level of no higher than 9.0 psi, E15 is not expected to cause or contribute to exceedances of the evaporative emission standards over the full useful life of Tier 2 motor vehicles.

Permeation refers to the migration of fuel molecules through the walls of elastomers used for fuel system components.

Southwest Research Institute Project 08-58845 Status Report, “Powertrain Component Inspection from Mid-Level Blends Vehicle Aging Study,” September 6, 2010.

See

EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-14016.

Environmental Testing Corporation NREL Subcontract JGC-9-99141-01 Presentation, “Vehicle Aging and Comparative Emissions testing Using E0 and E15 Fuels: Evaporative Emissions Results,” August 31, 2010.

See

EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-14015.

Materials Compatibility

Materials compatibility is a key factor in considering a fuel or fuel additive waiver insofar as poor materials compatibility can lead to serious exhaust and evaporative emission compliance problems not only immediately upon use of the new fuel or fuel additive, but especially over the full useful life of vehicles and engines. As part of its E15 waiver application, Growth Energy submitted a series of studies completed by the State of Minnesota and the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) that investigated materials compatibility of motor vehicle engines and engine components using three test fuels: E0, E10, and E20. The materials studied included what were considered to be many of the common metals, elastomers, and plastics used in motor vehicle fuel systems. Growth Energy concluded that E15 would not be problematic for current automotive or fuel dispensing equipment. While directionally illustrative, the materials compatibility information submitted by Growth Energy does not encompass all materials used in motor vehicle fuel systems, and the test procedures used are not representative of the dynamic real-world conditions under which the materials must perform. The information is therefore insufficient by itself to adequately assess the potential material compatibility of E15. However, the information generated through the DOE Catalyst Study demonstrates that MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles will not experience materials compatibility issues that lead to exhaust or evaporative emission exceedances. The DOE Catalyst Study supports the Agency's engineering assessment that newer motor vehicles such as those subject to EPA's Tier 2 standards, were designed to encounter more regular ethanol exposure compared to earlier model year motor vehicles. Other regulatory requirements also placed an emphasis on real world motor vehicle testing, which in turn prompted manufacturers to consider different available fuels when developing and testing their emissions systems. Additionally, beginning with Tier 2, the evaporative durability demonstration procedures required the use of E10. As a result, based on the information before us, we do not expect E15 to raise emissions related materials compatibility issues for Tier 2 motor vehicles.

Drivability and Operability

There is no evidence from any of the test programs cited by Growth Energy or in the data from the DOE Catalyst Study of driveability issues for Tier 2 motor vehicles fueled with E15 that would indicate that use of E15 would lead to increased emissions or that might cause motor vehicle owners to want to tamper with the emission control system of their motor vehicle. The Agency reviewed the data and reports from the different test programs, and found no specific report of driveability or operability issues across the many different motor vehicles and duty cycles, including lab testing and in-use operation.

MY2000 and Older Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

For MY2000 and older motor vehicles, the data and information before EPA fail to adequately demonstrate that the impact of E15 on exhaust emissions—both immediate and durability-related—will not cause or contribute to violations of the emissions standards for these motor vehicles. MY2000 and older motor vehicles do not have the sophisticated emissions control systems of today's Tier 2 motor vehicles, and there is an engineering basis to believe they may experience conditions affecting catalyst durability that lead to emission increases if operated on E15. This emissions impact, over time, combined with the expected immediate increase in NO

emissions from the use of E15, provides a clear basis for concern that E15 could cause these motor vehicles to exceed their emissions standards over their useful lives. Furthermore, some MY2000 and older motor vehicles were likely designed for no more than limited exposure to ethanol, since gasoline-ethanol blends were not used in most areas of the country at the time they were designed. Their fuel systems, evaporative emissions control systems, and internal engine components may not have been designed and tested for long-term durability, materials compatibility, or drivability with fuels containing ethanol. The limited exhaust emissions durability test data, evaporative emissions durability test data, and real-world materials compatibility test data either provided by Growth Energy in their petition or available in the public domain do not address or resolve these concerns. Therefore, the information before the Agency is not adequate to make the demonstration needed to grant a waiver for the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in MY2000 and older light-duty motor vehicles.

MY2001-2006 Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

EPA is deferring a decision on MY2001-2006 light-duty motor vehicles. DOE is in the process of conducting additional catalyst durability testing that will provide data regarding MY2001-2006 motor vehicles. The DOE testing is scheduled to be completed by the end of November 2010. EPA will make the DOE test results available to the public and consider the results and other available data and information in making a determination on the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in those model year motor vehicles. EPA expects to make a determination for these motor vehicles shortly after the results of DOE testing are available.

Nonroad Engines, Vehicles, and Equipment (Nonroad Products)

The nonroad product market is extremely diverse. Nonroad products

with gasoline engines include lawn mowers, chainsaws, forklifts, boats, personal watercraft, and all-terrain vehicles. Growth Energy did not provide information needed to broadly assess the potential impact of E15 on compliance of nonroad products with applicable emissions standards. Nonroad products typically have more basic engine designs, fuel systems, and controls than light-duty motor vehicles. The Agency has reasons for concern with the use of E15 in nonroad products, particularly with respect to long-term exhaust and evaporative emissions durability and materials compatibility. The limited information provided by Growth Energy and commenters, or otherwise available in the public domain, did not alleviate these concerns. As such, the Agency cannot grant a waiver for introduction into commerce of E15 motor vehicle gasoline that is also for use in nonroad products.

Heavy-Duty Gasoline Engines and Vehicles

Given their relatively small volume compared to light-duty motor vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles have not been the focus of test programs and efforts to assess the potential impacts of E15 on them. Growth Energy did not provide any data specifically addressing how heavy-duty gasoline engines' and vehicles' emissions and emissions control systems would be affected by the use of E15 over the full useful lives of these vehicles and engines. Additionally, from a historical perspective, the introduction of heavy-duty gasoline engine and vehicle technology has lagged behind the implementation of similar technology for light-duty motor vehicles. Similarly, emission standards for this sector have lagged behind those of light-duty motor vehicles, such that current heavy-duty gasoline engine standards remain comparable, from a technology standpoint to older light-duty motor vehicle standards. Consequently, we believe the concerns expressed above regarding MY2000 and older motor vehicles are also applicable to the majority of the in-use fleet of heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles. As such, the Agency cannot grant a waiver for the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in heavy-duty gasoline engines and motor vehicles.

Highway and Off-Highway Motorcycles

Like heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles, highway and off-highway motorcycles have not been the focus of E15 test programs. Growth Energy did not provide any data addressing how motorcycle emissions and emissions control systems would specifically be affected by the use of E15 over their full useful lives. While newer motorcycles incorporate some of the advanced fuel system and emission control technologies that are found in passenger cars and light-duty trucks, such as electronic fuel injection and catalysts, many do not have the specific control technology of today's motor vehicles (advanced fuel trim control) that would allow them to adjust to the higher oxygen content of E15. More importantly, older motorcycles do not have any of these technologies and are therefore more on par with nonroad products in some cases and MY2000 and older motor vehicles in others. As such, the Agency cannot grant a waiver for the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in highway and off-highway motorcycles.

Conditions on Today's Partial Waiver

There are two types of conditions being placed on the partial waiver being granted today: Those for mitigating the potential for misfueling of E15 in all vehicles, engines and equipment for which E15 is not approved, and those addressing fuel and ethanol quality. All of the conditions are discussed further below and are listed in Section XII.

EPA believes that the misfueling mitigation measures in the proposed rule accompanying today's waiver decision would provide the most practical way to ensure that E15 is only used in vehicles for which it is approved. However, if any fuel or fuel additive manufacturer desires to introduce into commerce E15, gasoline intended for use as E15, or ethanol intended for blending with gasoline to create E15, prior to the misfueling mitigation measures rule becoming final and effective, they may do so provided they implement all of the conditions of the partial waiver, including an EPA-approved plan that demonstrates that the fuel or fuel additive manufacturer will implement the misfueling mitigation conditions discussed below.

Misfueling Mitigation Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM)

As mentioned above, EPA is proposing a regulatory program that would help mitigate the potential for misfueling with E15 and promote the successful introduction of E15 into commerce. The proposal includes several provisions that parallel the misfueling mitigation conditions on the E15 waiver. First, the proposed rule would prohibit the use of gasoline-ethanol blended fuels containing greater than 10 vol% and up to 15 vol% ethanol in vehicles and engines not covered by the partial waiver for E15. Second, the proposed rule would require all fuel dispensers to have a label if a retail station chooses to sell E15, and it seeks comment on separate labeling requirements for blender pumps and fuel pumps that dispense E85. Finally, the proposed rule would require product transfer documents (PTDs) specifying ethanol content and RVP to accompany the transfer of gasoline blended with ethanol as well as a national survey of retail stations to ensure compliance with the these requirements. In addition to proposing actions to mitigate misfueling, the proposed rule would modify the Reformulated Gasoline (“RFG”) program by updating the Complex Model to allow fuel manufacturers to certify batches of gasoline containing up to 15 vol% ethanol. Once adopted, these regulations would facilitate the introduction of E15 into commerce under this partial waiver, as certain requirements in the regulations would satisfy certain conditions in the waiver. If EPA adopts such a rule, EPA would consider any appropriate modifications to the conditions of this waiver.

II. Introduction

A. Statutory Background

Section 211(f)(1) of the Clean Air Act (“CAA” or “the Act”) makes it unlawful for any manufacturer of any fuel or fuel additive to first introduce into commerce, or to increase the concentration in use of, any fuel or fuel additive for use by any person in motor vehicles manufactured after model year 1974 which is not substantially similar to any fuel or fuel additive utilized in the certification of any model year 1975, or subsequent model year, vehicle or engine under section 206 of the Act. The Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA” or “the Agency”) last issued an interpretive rule on the phrase “substantially similar” at 73 FR 22281 (April 25, 2008). Generally speaking, this interpretive rule describes the types of unleaded gasoline that are likely to be considered “substantially similar” to the unleaded gasoline utilized in EPA's certification program by placing limits on a gasoline's chemical composition as well as its physical properties, including the amount of alcohols and ethers (oxygenates) that may be added to gasoline. Fuels that are found to be “substantially similar” to EPA's certification fuels may be registered and introduced into commerce. The current “substantially similar” interpretive rule for unleaded gasoline allows oxygen content up to 2.7% by weight for certain

ethers and alcohols.

E10 (a gasoline-ethanol blend containing 10 vol% ethanol) contains approximately 3.5% oxygen by weight and received a waiver of this prohibition by operation of law under section 211(f)(4).

E15 (gasoline-ethanol blended fuels containing greater than 10 vol% ethanol and up to 15 vol% ethanol) has greater than 2.7 wt% oxygen content, and Growth Energy has applied for a waiver under section 211(f)(4) of the Act.

See

56 FR 5352 (February 11, 1991).

As explained at 44 FR 20777 (April 6, 1979), EPA did not grant or deny a waiver request for a fuel containing 90% unleaded gasoline and 10% ethyl alcohol within 180 days of receiving that request. By operation of a provision that was at that time included in section 211(f)(4), E10 was no longer subject to the prohibitions in CAA section 211(f)(1) of the Act. That provision has subsequently been removed.

Section 211(f)(4) of the Act provides that upon application of any fuel or fuel additive manufacturer, the Administrator may waive the prohibitions of section 211(f)(1) if the Administrator determines that the applicant has established that such fuel or fuel additive, or a specified concentration thereof, will not cause or contribute to a failure of any emission control device or system (over the useful life of the motor vehicle, motor vehicle engine, nonroad engine or nonroad vehicle in which such device or system is used) to achieve compliance by the vehicle or engine with the emission standards to which it has been certified pursuant to sections 206 and 213(a). In other words, the Administrator may grant a waiver for a prohibited fuel or fuel additive if the applicant can demonstrate that the new fuel or fuel additive will not cause or contribute to engines, vehicles or equipment to fail to meet their emissions standards over their useful lives. The statute requires that the Administrator shall take final action to grant or deny the application, after public notice and comment, within 270 days of receipt of the application.

The current section 211(f)(4) reflects the following changes made by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: (1) Requires consideration of the impact on nonroad engines and nonroad vehicles in a waiver decision; (2) extends the period allowed for consideration of the waiver request application from 180 days to 270 days; and, (3) deletes a provision that resulted in a waiver request becoming effective by operation of law if the Administrator made no decision on the application within 180 days of receipt of the application.

As noted previously, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 also substantially increased the mandated renewable fuel requirements of the Renewable Fuels Standard Program.

B. Growth Energy Application and Review Process

On March 6, 2009, Growth Energy and 54 ethanol manufacturers (hereafter “Growth Energy”) submitted an application to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for a waiver of the substantially similar prohibition. This application seeks a waiver for gasoline containing up to 15 vol% ethanol. On April 21, 2009, EPA published notice of the receipt of the application, and EPA requested public comment on all aspects of the waiver application for assisting the Administrator in determining whether the statutory basis for granting the waiver request for E15 has been met.

EPA originally provided a 30-day period for the public to respond. The deadline for public comment was May 21, 2009.

See

74 FR 18228 (April 21, 2009).

After multiple requests for additional time to comment, EPA agreed that additional time for comments was appropriate and that an extension of the comment period would aid in providing these stakeholders and others an adequate amount of time to respond to the complex legal and technical issues that result from possibly allowing E15 to be sold commercially. Accordingly, on May 20, 2009, EPA published a

Federal Register

notice extending the public comment period for the E15 waiver application until July 20, 2009.

For EPA's response to more recent requests for an additional comment period,

see

section IX.

See

74 FR 23704 (May 20, 2009).

The Agency received approximately 78,000 comments on the waiver application. The overwhelming majority of these comments were brief comments from individuals indicating either general support for or opposition to the E15 waiver application. The Agency also received a large number of comments from a variety of organizations which substantively addressed the questions which EPA posed in the

Federal Register

notice announcing receipt of the application. These comments are summarized and addressed below.

In addition to the information submitted by Growth Energy and commenters, the Department of Energy (DOE) has been performing, and continues to perform, testing on a variety of motor vehicles focused on the effect E15 might have on motor vehicles after long-term use of E15 (“DOE Catalyst Study”). This testing is a significant source of information on the effects of E15 on the durability of motor vehicles' emissions control systems, a key technical issue to be addressed in EPA's waiver review. This kind of testing requires thousands of miles of mileage accumulation (or its equivalent using a test cell), and the collection of such data requires a significant amount of time to complete.

Coordinating with EPA and stakeholders, DOE expedited the durability testing, first focusing on newer motor vehicles. Realizing that it would take a significant amount of time (months) to finish collecting and evaluating the durability data, EPA notified Growth Energy in a letter on November 30, 2009, that it was not issuing a decision on the waiver at that time but instead planned to issue a decision at a later date based on the need to assess the critical data being generated by the DOE catalyst durability test program.

The DOE Catalyst Study is comprehensive. A total of 82 vehicles are expected to undergo full useful life testing. Motor vehicles are accumulating mileage under an accelerated protocol, which generally results in each motor vehicle being tested over 6-9 months. DOE has completed the first phase of this testing which focused on light-duty motor vehicles certified to Federal Tier 2 emissions standards. The analysis and evaluation of not only this durability data, but all of the data relevant to the Growth Energy application, as well as EPA's partial waiver decision, is discussed and explained below. DOE should complete testing on vehicles certified to National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) and Tier 1 Federal emission standards by the end of November.

Various parties have also suggested allowances for the use of E12 (gasoline-ethanol blended fuel that contains 12 vol% ethanol) for all gasoline-powered vehicles and engines. The issue of E12 is also discussed separately below in Section VIII.

C. Today's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) on Misfueling Mitigation Measures

As noted above, today's partial waiver decision places several conditions on fuel and fuel additive manufacturers to mitigate the use of E15 in nonroad products, highway and off-highway motorcycles, heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles, and motor vehicles older than MY2007.

In a separate notice, we are today proposing regulatory provisions that parallel many of the conditions placed on the E15 partial waiver. Specifically, we are proposing a prohibition on the use of gasoline containing greater than

10 vol% ethanol in MY2000 and older non-flex fueled light-duty motor vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles, highway and off-highway motorcycles, and all nonroad products, based on findings under both sections 211(c)(1)(A) and (B) of the CAA. The prohibition is necessary based on the potential for increased emissions resulting from the use of E15. In order to facilitate the entry of E15 into commerce for use in MY2007 and newer motor vehicles, while protecting vehicles and engines not approved for use of E15, this rulemaking proposes fuel pump labeling provisions to mitigate the misfueling of motor vehicles and other engines, vehicles and equipment prohibited from using a motor vehicle gasoline containing ethanol in levels higher than E10. We are also proposing additional requirements for fuels that contain greater than 10 vol% ethanol and no more than 15 vol% ethanol, including the proper documentation of ethanol content on product transfer documents and requirements for a national survey to ensure the proper placement of E15 labels and the proper placement of gasoline-ethanol blends in the appropriate gasoline storage tanks; these provisions should help support the effectiveness of a labeling program.

III. Method of Review

Under section 211(f)(4) of the Act, 24 applications for waivers of the section 211(f)(1) prohibitions have been received over the past 30 years. Of these, 23 applications have sought a waiver for additives for unleaded gasoline. One application sought a waiver of the section 211(f)(1)(B) prohibitions for an additive to diesel fuel. Of these 24 applications, 11 applications were granted (some with conditions attached), 10 were denied, and three were withdrawn by the applicant prior to the Agency's decision.

“Waiver Requests under Section 211(f) of the Clean Air Act (Revised August 22, 1995),” found at

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/fuels/additive/waiver.pdf.

Section 211(f)(4) clearly places upon the waiver applicant the burden of establishing that its fuel or fuel additive will not cause or contribute to the failure of vehicles or engines to meet their assigned emission standards over their useful lives. Absent a sufficient showing, the Administrator cannot make the required determination and cannot grant the waiver. If interpreted literally, however, this burden of proof would be virtually impossible for an applicant to meet as it requires the proof of a negative proposition: That no vehicle or engine will fail to meet emission standards to which it has been certified. Such a literal interpretation could be construed as requiring the testing of every vehicle or engine that will use the waived fuel. Recognizing that Congress contemplated a workable waiver provision, EPA has previously indicated that reliable statistical sampling and fleet testing protocols could safely be used to demonstrate that a fuel or fuel additive under consideration would not cause or contribute to motor vehicles in the applicable national fleet failing to meet their applicable emissions standards.

See

43 FR 41425 (September 18, 1978).

While this demonstration typically takes the form of reliable statistical sampling and fleet testing protocols, an applicant may also make a demonstration based upon a reasonable theory regarding emissions effects and support these judgments with confirmatory testing as an alternative to providing the amount of data necessary to conduct robust statistical analyses.

If a reasonable theory exists, based on good engineering judgment, which predicts the emission effects of a fuel or fuel additive, an applicant may only need to conduct a sufficient amount of testing to demonstrate the validity of such a theory. This theory and confirmatory testing then form the basis from which the Administrator may exercise his or her judgment on whether the fuel or fuel additive will cause or contribute to a failure of the vehicles and engines to achieve compliance with their emission standards.

Thus, the burden of proof calls for sufficient data to conduct statistical analyses or to confirm a reasonable theory based on sound engineering judgment.

See

44 FR 12244 (February 23, 1979).

See

Waiver Decision on Application of E.I. DuPont de Nemours and Company (DuPont), 46 FR 6124 (February 28, 1983).

In determining whether a waiver applicant has established that the proposed fuel or fuel additive will not cause or contribute to vehicles and engines failing to meet their emission standards, EPA reviews all of the material in the public docket. At a minimum, the docket includes data submitted with the application and the public comments and data received during the public review and comment period on the application. EPA may also examine applicable data from any other sources which may shed light on the relevant analyses; such other data is also placed in the docket. EPA then considers and analyzes all of the data to ascertain the emission effects of the fuel or fuel additive on the applicable engines and vehicles.

In conducting a waiver application review, EPA's emissions impact analysis concentrates on the following four major areas:

(1) Exhaust emissions, both immediate and long-term (durability); (2) evaporative emissions, both immediate and long-term; (3) materials compatibility; and (4) driveability and operability. EPA evaluates the emissions impacts in these four categories individually and collectively and makes its final determination based on whether the new fuel or fuel additive will cause or contribute to the failure of vehicles and engines to meet their emissions standards. Each category is further discussed below.

See

44 FR 12244 (February 23, 1979).

Exhaust and evaporative emission data are analyzed according to the effects that a fuel or fuel additive is predicted to have on emissions over time. If the fuel is predicted to have only an immediate effect on emissions (

i.e.,

the emission effects of the fuel or fuel additive are immediate and remain constant throughout the life of the vehicle or engine when operating on the waiver fuel), then “back-to-back” emissions testing will suffice. However, if the fuel or fuel additive affects the operation of the engine or related emission control hardware in a physical manner (

e.g.,

operating temperatures, component interaction, chemical changes, increased permeation, and materials degradation) that might lead to emissions deterioration over time, test data is needed to demonstrate that the long-term durability of the emissions control system is not compromised by the fuel or fuel additive such that it would cause or contribute to the engines or vehicles failing to meet their emissions standards.

Materials compatibility issues can lead to substantial exhaust and evaporative emissions increases. In most cases, materials incompatibility issues show up in emissions testing; however, there may be impacts that do not show up due to the way the testing is performed or because the tests simply do not capture the effect, especially if materials compatibility effects are determined to result with use of the new fuel or fuel additive over time. EPA has required applicants to demonstrate that new fuel or fuel additives will not have materials compatibility issues.

See

44 FR 1447 (January 5, 1979).

A change in the driveability of a motor vehicle that results in significant deviation from normal operation (

i.e.,

stalling, hesitation,

etc.

) could result in increased emissions. These increases

may not be demonstrated in the emission certification test cycles but instead are present during in-use operation. In addition to consumer dissatisfaction, a motor vehicle stall and subsequent restart can result in a significant emissions increase because hydrocarbon (HC) and CO emission rates are typically highest during cold starts. Further, concerns exist if the consumer or operator tampers with the motor vehicle in an attempt to correct the driveability issue since consumers may attempt to modify a motor vehicle from its original certified configuration.

IV. Waiver Submissions and Analysis of Light-Duty Motor Vehicle Issues

This section discusses Growth Energy's waiver submission, comments received on it, and EPA's waiver decision and analysis for light-duty motor vehicles. The discussion groups vehicles according to our decision: MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles for which we are approving the waiver, MY2001-2006 for which we are deferring a decision, and MY2000 and older motor vehicles for which we are denying the waiver.

As described in Section III, Method of Review, above, the Agency evaluated Growth Energy's waiver request and made its decision based on four factors: (1) Exhaust emissions impact—both immediate and long-term (known as durability); (2) immediate exhaust emissions impact; (2) evaporative system impacts—both immediate and long-term; (3) the impact of materials compatibility on emissions; and, (4) the impact of drivability and operability on emissions.

A. MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

While this section discusses the rationale of our decision for MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, it references information related to other model years as Growth Energy's submission was not model year specific and neither were the comments. In addition, we believe it was important to discuss MY2007 and newer motor vehicles in the context of how they are different from earlier model year light-duty motor vehicles.

1. Exhaust Emissions—Long-Term Durability

a. Growth Energy's Submission

For long-term durability testing (“durability testing”), Growth Energy suggests that durability testing is not required for E15 for two reasons. First, in its waiver application and public comments, Growth Energy argued that emissions testing to determine the impact of long-term use of E15 on the emissions control system is not required for E15 because EPA has waived durability testing for oxygenates in the past. Growth Energy contends that EPA has determined that oxygenates such as ethanol do not require durability testing because the Agency is “unaware of any long-term deteriorative effects on exhaust emissions associated with oxygenates”

and that “the vast majority of data indicate that the effect of oxygenates on exhaust emissions over time has not been a significant issue.”

Growth Energy argued further that it would be “arbitrary and capricious” for the Agency to require durability testing for E15 considering EPA's long-standing position that oxygenates like ethanol will not have long-term exhaust emissions effects.

See

53 FR 33846 (September 1, 1988).

See

44 FR 10530 (February 21, 1979).

Growth Energy's second argument is that EPA may accept reasonable theoretical judgments regarding the emission effects of a fuel as an alternative to direct testing of motor vehicles, and that in this case, fuel volatility specification, limited durability emissions testing, and data regarding materials compatibility and driveability could be used to establish and confirm such a theory. Growth Energy suggests that the collection of studies supplied in the application, coupled with 30 years of experience using E10, provides a rational basis to develop a theory that E15 will not cause or contribute to emissions failures in motor vehicles. Growth Energy feels that the studies supplied in the application supply enough data to confirm their theory and this alleviates the need for long-term emissions testing.

In particular, Growth Energy suggests that since a study conducted by the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT)

examined the effects of E20 (gasoline-ethanol blend containing 20 vol% ethanol) on 10 vehicles over significant mileage accumulation (75,000 miles combined), and found no issues when comparing E20 emissions performance with E0 (gasoline containing no ethanol) emissions performance, that “E20 will not have a significant deteriorative effect on applicable vehicle parts.”

Growth Energy believes that this is enough information to satisfy long-term exhaust emissions testing requirements. In its comments, Growth Energy supplied an updated summary of the RIT Study which details RIT's expansion of the driveability program to 400 motor vehicles. Growth Energy argues that the updated summary of the RIT Study that they submitted in their comments has shown “no significant issues” with over 400 motor vehicles that have accumulated over 1.5 million total combined miles and found that “emissions may be reduced through use of E-20.”

Growth Energy contends that this study confirms their theory that E15 will not cause or contribute to motor vehicles failing their emissions standards over their full useful lives.

The effect of E20 ethanol fuel on vehicle emissions, B Hilton and B Daddy, Center for Integrated Manufacturing Studies, Rochester Institute of Technology, June 26, 2009.

See

EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211. (“The RIT Study”).

“Application For A Waiver Pursuant to Section 211(f)(4) of the Clean Air Act For E-15” Submitted by Growth Energy on Behalf of 52 United States Ethanol Manufacturers; EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-0002.6.

“Growth Energy's Comments on Notice of Clean Air Act Waiver Application To Increase the Allowable Ethanol Content of Gasoline to Fifteen Percent,” EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-2721.1.

b. Public Comment Summary

Several commenters responded that the RIT Study has limitations and does not alleviate concerns about the long-term emissions impacts of using E15 in motor vehicles. The Manufacturers of Emissions Controls Association (MECA) argues that emission control-related concerns regarding the use of E15 include the potential for accelerated thermal deactivation of three-way catalysts equipped on existing light-duty motor vehicles or nonroad engines, due to higher exhaust temperatures that have been observed on engines fueled with mid-level ethanol blends in comparison to E0 and E10. MECA argues further that the thermal durability of three-way catalyst formulations is a function of time, catalyst temperature, and gas composition; extended catalyst exposure to higher exhaust temperatures, especially in the presence of oxygen-rich exhaust conditions that can be created through the use of E15, can accelerate catalyst thermal deactivation mechanisms (

e.g.,

sintering of active precious metal sites, sintering of oxygen storage materials, and migration of active materials into inert support materials).

“Statement of the Manufacturers of Emission Controls Association on the Waiver Request Received by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to Increase the Ethanol Content of Gasoline up to 15%,” EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-2441.1.

Many commenters point out that Growth Energy submitted and cited only a summary of the RIT Study. The summary, as these commenters note, omits key details necessary to evaluate the conclusions that Growth Energy draws from the RIT Study. For example,

commenters noted that the summary did not specify the make, model and year of the motor vehicles tested, making it impossible to determine the representativeness of RIT's motor vehicle test fleet. Additionally, they added that no actual data were included in the summary for commenters and the Agency to conduct independent analyses of RIT's test results. Furthermore, no detailed descriptions outlining the fuel properties of both test fuels (E0 and E20) were included in the summary. Even through Growth Energy provided an updated summary of the RIT Study in its comments, this updated summary still omitted important details necessary for commenters and the Agency to conduct an independent analysis.

Auto manufacturers, refiners, and several others similarly noted that higher exhaust temperatures could cause increased deterioration of catalysts over time. These commenters assert that this deterioration may adversely affect a motor vehicle's ability to meet emissions standards, particularly after significant mileage accumulation.

Commenters noted that a recently released Coordinating Research Council (CRC) Report E-87-1 (“the CRC Screening Study” or “E-87-1”) is the first phase of another test program developed to look at the effects of mid-level gasoline-ethanol blends on U.S. motor vehicles.

The purpose of the study was to identify motor vehicles which used learned fuel trims to correct open-loop air-to-fuel (A/F) ratios since this may gauge the risk of the catalyst to thermal degradation.

This study is the first phase of a two-phase study evaluating the effects of mid-level gasoline-ethanol blends on emission control systems. The test program identified and acquired a fleet of 25 test motor vehicles with 12 of those motor vehicles manufactured after 2000. The study collected vehicle speed, oxygen sensor A/F ratio, and catalyst temperature data on four fuels (E0, E10, E15, and E20). Results compared the three gasoline-ethanol blends with E0. The study concluded that a large number of vehicles (12 of the 25 tested) failed to apply long-term fuel trim to correct for increasing ethanol levels when operating in open-loop control.

Mid-level Ethanol Blends Catalyst Durability Study Screening

(CRC Report: E-87-1), June 2009 (“CRC Screening Study”), EPA Docket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-13970. Available at:

http://www.crcao.com/reports/recentstudies2009/E-87-1/E-87-1%20Final%20Report%2007_06_2009.pdf.

See

section IV.A.1.c. for a detailed discussion of these terms.

Commenters also pointed out that the CRC Screening Study showed increased exhaust temperatures in motor vehicles that failed to apply long-term learned fuel trim when operating open loop at wide open throttle using E15 and E20. This constituted seven of the sixteen vehicles tested, and the average increase was 30 degrees Celsius in these motor vehicles.

Several comments refer to a series of studies conducted by Orbital Engine Company for Environment Australia to evaluate impacts E20 would have if introduced in Australia (“the Orbital Study”). The Orbital Study evaluated emissions performance on total hydrocarbon, CO, NOx and aldehydes, materials compatibility issues, and driveability of E20 compared to E0 with a test fleet of five paired late model Australian motor vehicles. The Orbital Study completed emissions testing over 80,000 kilometers (about 50,000 miles). The study notes that there were substantial increases in regulated pollutants for motor vehicles that used E20 when compared with vehicles that used E0 after the accumulation of 80,000 kilometers. The study's authors further point out that one motor vehicle operating on E20 exceeded the Australian NO

emissions standard.

The Orbital authors also examined catalyst efficiency changes as a possible cause of the changes in emissions as a result of aging the motor vehicles on E20. The Orbital authors conclude that the exhaust emissions increases occurred due to catalyst degradation which they attribute to the increase in exhaust temperature from E20 use during particular modes of operation. They continue by noting that the two motor vehicles that experienced dramatic emissions increases with E20 after aging were motor vehicle models that failed to adjust to the higher oxygen levels found in E20.

After reviewing the emissions results presented in the Orbital Study, we believe that these motor vehicles' certified emissions standards are comparable to the Tier 1 (1994 to 1999) motor vehicle exhaust emissions standards in the United States.

The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (“the Alliance”) reasons that the Orbital Study, the CRC Screening Study, and the DOE Pilot Study

suggest that allowing the use of E15 in motor vehicles could cause a substantial number of motor vehicles to fail emissions standards because of increased catalyst deterioration over the motor vehicles' full useful life, especially in so-called “legacy vehicles” which constitute a bulk of the American motor vehicle fleet. The Alliance asserts that this uncertainty of the long-term effects of E15 on catalysts durability would require motor vehicle testing over the full useful life to address these concerns. The Alliance for a Safe Alternative Fuels Environment (“AllSAFE”) concluded that legally “when the relevant effects can include accelerated catalyst deterioration, 'back to back' testing to determine so-called 'immediate' emissions impacts is not sufficient.”

In October 2008, DOE released a report titled

Effects of Intermediate Ethanol Blends on Legacy Vehicles and Small Non-road Engines, Report 1.

DOE later published an update to that report, which included all of the original study plus additional vehicles. For the purposes of this decision document, we refer to the updated study,

Effects of Intermediate Ethanol Blends on Legacy Vehicles and Small Non-road Engines, Report 1—Updated,

National Renewable Energy Laboratory, February 2009, as the “DOE Pilot Study”. EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0161-2880.

“Exhibit B, Supplemental Statutory Appendix To the Comments of the Alliance for a Safe Alternative Fuels Environment On the Request for Waiver of the Prohibition in Section 211(f)(1) of the Clean Air Act

Noticed for Comment at 74 FR 18,228 (April 21, 2009)”, submitted by AllSAFE, EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-2559.2.

Growth Energy submitted two responses to the Orbital Study. First, Growth Energy commented that the motor vehicles tested in the Orbital Study were designed for Australian emission standards and are not representative of motor vehicles found in the US. Second, since much of the research Orbital relied on was conducted in the 1980s and early 1990s, Growth Energy points out that the “U.S. fleet has been redesigned significantly since the mid-1980s to accommodate different fuel blends and meet the world's most stringent emission regulations.”

“ATTACHMENT A: Responses to Anecdotes and Unfounded Claims Regarding E-15,” submitted by Growth Energy, EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-2721.2.

Specifically addressing the issue of higher catalyst temperatures, Growth Energy, ACE, and others responded in their respective comments that higher catalyst temperatures are not necessarily harmful to the catalysts.

They point out that the catalyst temperature increases in the DOE Pilot Study were relatively small and well within normal operating temperatures. These commenters also note that the temperatures only occurred in certain motor vehicles and only when those motor vehicles were operated in the rarely used wide open throttle mode. Growth Energy points out that for the seven motor vehicles that adjusted for

the extra oxygen from the increased ethanol blends, catalyst temperatures were cooler on average.

In fact, ACE argues that these increased catalyst temperatures may be responsible for the average decreases in NO

emissions found in the DOE Study and RIT Study.

See

ACE's Comment, 8.

c. EPA Response Regarding the Need for Long-Term Exhaust Emissions (Durability) Testing

i. General Long-Term Exhaust Emissions (Durability) Concerns

Ethanol impacts motor vehicles in two primary ways. First, as discussed below, ethanol enleans the A/F ratio (increases the proportion of oxygen relative to hydrocarbons) which can lead to increased exhaust gas temperatures and potentially increase incremental deterioration of emission control hardware and performance over time, possibly causing catalyst failure. Second, ethanol can cause materials compatibility issues, which may lead to other component failures (this will be discussed further in sections IV.A.3 and IV.A.4 below). Ultimately, either of these impacts may lead to emission increases.

Due to the increased oxygen content of E15 relative to E10, motor vehicles operated on E15 will likely run even leaner than those operated on E10 depending on the vehicle technology and operating conditions. It is also relevant to note that all motor vehicles are emissions and durability tested for exhaust emissions certification purposes using an E0 fuel; therefore, this effect of changing from E10 to E15 will not be present during certification and compliance testing. Enleaned combustion leads to an increase in the temperature of the exhaust gases. This increase in exhaust gas temperatures has the potential to raise the temperatures of various exhaust system components (

e.g.,

exhaust valves, exhaust manifolds, catalysts, and oxygen sensors) beyond their design limits. However, based on past experience, the most sensitive component is likely the catalyst, particularly in older motor vehicles with early catalyst technology. Catalyst durability is highly dependent on temperature, time, and feed gas composition. Catalyst temperatures must be controlled and catalyst deterioration minimized during all motor vehicle operation modes for the catalyst to maintain high conversion efficiency over the motor vehicle's full useful life (FUL). This is particularly important during high-load operation of a motor vehicle where the highest exhaust gas temperatures are typically encountered and the risk for catalyst deterioration is the greatest. Catalysts that exceed temperature thresholds will deteriorate at rates higher than expected, compromising the motor vehicles' ability to meet the required emission standards over their FUL. Extended catalyst exposure to higher exhaust temperatures can accelerate catalyst thermal deactivation mechanisms (

e.g.,

sintering of active precious metal sites, sintering of oxygen storage materials, and migration of active materials into inert support materials). While this damage can occur at a highly accelerated rate with a sudden change in temperature (

e.g.,

with a misfire allowing raw fuel to reach the catalyst), it is more likely to occur over time from elevated exhaust temperatures as may be experienced with frequent or even occasional exposure to E15. This deterioration may adversely affect a motor vehicle's ability to meet emissions standards, particularly after significant mileage accumulation.

Some motor vehicles may be designed in ways that manage catalyst temperatures by compensating for the oxygen in the fuel under all operating conditions, including high loads. This is achieved by using a closed-loop fuel system that measures the A/F ratio and makes the appropriate corrections to maintain the A/F ratio in the very tight band of operation around stoichiometry necessary for optimum catalyst performance and reductions in HC, CO, and NO

emissions. The corrections can be applied to other areas of operation to achieve the desired A/F ratio. The part of the closed-loop fuel system that is responsible for the correction to the A/F ratio is referred to as “fuel trim.” The fuel trim adds or removes fuel to the engine in order to maintain the required A/F ratio. If the measured A/F ratio has insufficient oxygen or is “rich,” compared to what the engine needs, the fuel trim will instruct the fuel injectors to inject less fuel, making the A/F ratio “leaner.” The opposite is true if the measured A/F ratio has too much oxygen and needs to inject more fuel for a “richer” A/F ratio. The fuel trim is generally comprised of two major parts, short-term fuel trim and long-term or learned or adaptive fuel trim. Learned or adaptive fuel trim can also be applied to open-loop operation such as high-load or wide-open throttle to alleviate the catalyst temperature increases caused by operating on E15. However this practice has not been consistently employed by all manufacturers.

ii. Response to Growth Energy's First Argument

In its first argument Growth Energy asserted that long-term exhaust emissions testing (“durability testing”) is not required for E15 because EPA has waived durability testing for oxygenates in previous waiver decisions. The Agency believes that Growth Energy's waiver request application is different in substantial ways from previous oxygenate waiver applications that EPA has reviewed. Previous oxygenate waivers have, at most, resulted in increased fuel oxygen levels of up to around 2.7% by weight oxygen. E15, for the first time, would add significantly more oxygen to the fuel, up to around 5.5% by weight oxygen depending on the density of the gasoline to which ethanol is added. This increase in oxygen content is double the current oxygen content limit that EPA interprets to be substantially similar to motor vehicle gasoline used in the certification of motor vehicles.

Additionally, with the exception of the original E10 waiver, which was not granted through an EPA decision but through the operation of law,

and the Tertiary-butyl Alcohol waiver, which leads to oxygen content of about 1.6 percent, EPA has placed a condition on all other gasoline-alcohol waivers requiring a corrosion inhibitor to deal with the aggressive nature of these fuels.

See

73 FR 22277 (April 25, 2008).

See

44 FR 20777 (April 6, 1979).

In addition to this very large increase in oxygen content compared to the waivers granted by EPA over 20 years ago, the emissions standards that motor vehicles must achieve have become much more stringent over time. As a result, emissions control systems have also changed significantly over time. The emissions controls systems of vehicles over the last 20 years have progressively become more dependent on the ability to control the deterioration of the emissions control system, especially the catalyst, to achieve compliance with the emissions standards over the full useful life of the motor vehicle. Of particular importance is the ability of emissions control systems over time to limit or control long-term deterioration by accounting for the oxygen level of the fuel. The oxygen content levels at issue in this waiver application raise serious concerns about long-term durability. This concern is supported by information in several studies.

For both of these reasons, EPA rejects Growth Energy's claim that long-term exhaust emissions (durability) testing is not required for the E15 waiver request and that it would be arbitrary or capricious for EPA to require durability testing for this waiver.

iii. Response to Growth Energy's Second Argument

Growth Energy in its second argument concluded that E15 does not require long-term exhaust emissions (durability) test data, because, as they state, EPA may accept reasonable theoretical judgments as to the emission effects of a fuel as an alternative to the direct testing of motor vehicles. However, Growth Energy has not presented a reasonable and valid engineering theory to demonstrate that E15 will not detrimentally impact the durability of emissions control systems such that engines and vehicles can still meet their emissions standards while using E15. They point to fuel volatility specification, limited durability emissions testing, data regarding materials compatibility and driveability, as well as the collection of studies supplied in the application, coupled with 30 years of experience with using E10, as providing a rational basis for a theory that E15 would not cause long-term deterioration of the emissions control systems of motor vehicles. However, this is not an engineering theory or an engineering analysis. Growth Energy has not analyzed the design of emissions control systems and their changes over time, as emissions standards have increasingly become more stringent. Nor has Growth Energy explained from an engineering perspective why in theory the oxygen levels found in E15 should not lead to durability problems for the emissions control system when used over time. Instead, Growth Energy points to the same information as both the source of its theory as well as the data used to confirm its theory. This highlights the circular nature of Growth Energy's argument, as well as the absence of an engineering analysis that identifies and explains any theory Growth Energy relies upon.

Absent such a theory, one would perform the durability testing and draw conclusions from such testing about the impact of E15 on long-term durability. In essence, Growth Energy is suggesting that the data and testing it presents provides such an evidentiary basis and is as credible as data gathered from actual long-term durability testing for drawing such conclusions. Instead of presenting a reasoned engineering theory and data to confirm it, they are presenting what amounts to an alternative evidentiary basis to long-term durability testing. However, the information that Growth Energy relies on is not adequate to provide such a basis.

For example, the RIT Study that Growth Energy cites does not support the conclusions that Growth Energy draws from this test program. Specifically, Growth Energy argues that because the RIT Study had run 10 motor vehicles over 75,000 miles without any serious issues, a reasonable theory concerning E15's effects on long-term durability may be inferred. However, 10 motor vehicles run over 75,000 miles on E20 is only an average of 7,500 miles per motor vehicle. This is substantially lower than the 100,000/120,000 full useful life of the motor vehicles in the test program. Similarly, Growth Energy argues that the expanded RIT Study ran 400 motor vehicles over 1.5 million combined miles without significant issues. However, 400 motor vehicles run over 1.5 million miles is an average of 3,750 miles per motor vehicle. Additionally, Growth Energy suggests that RIT found decreases in the emissions of regulated pollutants in RIT's 400-vehicle driveability study, but no actual emissions testing on those motor vehicles was performed. In the updated RIT summary that Growth Energy submitted during the comment period, RIT had not conducted any additional motor vehicle emissions testing since the earlier summary.

Although the initial emissions testing conducted in 2008 may suggest decreases in regulated pollutants, it does not address concerns that increased ethanol levels in gasoline may lead to increased exhaust temperatures, increased catalyst deterioration, and increased emissions over time. Since the RIT study only performed emissions testing on 10 of the vehicles (4 of which were Ford F250 trucks), and the mileage accumulated on E20 for each vehicle was far less than the 120,000 mile FUL, it is not possible to draw adequate conclusions concerning long-term emissions from the RIT Study even after the completion of the test program.

The Agency finds that none of the other studies or information cited by Growth Energy specifically addresses the concern with the effect of increased exhaust temperatures due to increased ethanol levels and how that will impact the motor vehicles' ability to meet their emissions standards over their useful life. The studies and material may provide information relative to other aspects of ethanol impacts but fall short of providing any substantive information on the long-term effects of midlevel gasoline-ethanol blends on emissions control systems. Nor do any of the studies that Growth Energy cites provide sufficient information to lead the Agency to believe that there will not be long-term durability concerns. Growth Energy did not provide any data or analysis of warranty or repair information from in-use experience with E10 vs. E0 with which to assess what the impact has been over the last 30 years from the use of E10 in the in-use fleet, nor any information showing how the results of such an analysis would change with the use of E15. Therefore, we do not agree with Growth Energy that durability testing is not required.

The Agency concludes that the studies and other information cited in Growth Energy's waiver request application, and its public comments, do not demonstrate that E15 is not likely to have adverse impacts on the long-term exhaust emissions (durability) of the emissions control system over the full useful life of motor vehicles. The DOE Pilot Study, the CRC Screening Study, the Orbital Study, comments from the automobile manufacturers, and our engineering judgment, as discussed below, all indicate that legitimate concerns exist that E15 could accelerate the deterioration of the catalysts in a sizeable portion of the national fleet, leading to increased emissions.

Therefore, EPA finds that the limited durability testing and other information relied upon by Growth Energy is not adequate by itself to determine the long-term durability impact of E15 on exhaust emissions control systems.

d. Durability Studies and EPA Analysis

A number of regulatory actions have taken place since 2000 which have placed an emphasis on real-world testing of motor vehicles, which in turn has led to changes in emission control systems. First, the Compliance Assurance Program, more commonly known as CAP2000, took effect with MY2001 motor vehicles and was designed to place more emphasis on the “in-use” performance (or the performance of motor vehicles once they are in customer service) of motor vehicle emission controls with motor vehicles operating nationwide on the different available fuels. The In-Use Verification Program (IUVP) introduced under CAP2000 requires manufacturers to perform exhaust and evaporative emissions tests on customer motor vehicles at low and high mileage intervals. This emphasis on real-world motor vehicle testing provided manufacturers with increased incentive to consider the impacts of different marketplace fuels, including E10, when developing and testing their emissions control systems.

Second, by MY2004, Supplemental Federal Test Procedure (SFTP) emissions standards were fully phased in. SFTP emissions standards expanded

vehicle emission testing to better represent actual consumer driving habits and conditions by including the US06 test (a high speed and high acceleration cycle), the SCO3 test (an air conditioning test cycle run in an environmental test chamber at 95 °F), and a 20 °F cold test run on the Federal Test Procedure (FTP) cycle. In response to these requirements manufacturers developed more robust emissions control systems (such as systems using wide range oxygen sensors) capable of withstanding the higher temperatures experienced during these more severe cycles without simply relying on enriching of the A/F ratio, causing emissions to rise.

Third, beginning with MY2004, the Agency implemented its current and most stringent emission standards—the Tier 2 standards, with full implementation for light-duty motor vehicles and trucks and medium duty passenger motor vehicles completed by MY2007. Importantly, in order to comply with Tier 2 full useful life requirements, additional changes were required to ensure the durability of the exhaust and evaporative emission control systems over “real world” conditions.

As a result of all of these standards, Tier 2 motor vehicles (

i.e.

motor vehicles subject to the Tier 2 standards) are more technologically advanced and robust than cars built years ago. These motor vehicles have improved hardware as well as more sophisticated emissions control systems and strategies to help maintain catalyst effectiveness throughout the extended motor vehicle operating range over which emissions performance must be maintained. Motor vehicles now have the ability to precisely adjust for changes in the A/F ratio of the engine and ultimately maintain peak catalyst efficiency under almost any condition, such as exposure to oxygenated fuels like those containing ethanol. Auto manufacturers now warrant their new motor vehicles to operate on gasoline-ethanol blends up to E10.

While the Tier 2 regulations allowed new motor vehicles to phase-in to the Tier 2 standards from MY2004-2009, actual manufacturer certification data indicates that gasoline-fueled motor vehicles reached full phase-in with MY2007. MY2004-2006 motor vehicles include a mix of Tier 2 and “interim non-Tier 2” motor vehicles. Only some flexible-fueled vehicles (FFVs) and diesel motor vehicles remained as interim non-Tier 2 motor vehicles in MY2008 and 2009.

To comply with the stringent Tier 2 standards, manufacturers must minimize deterioration of the emissions control system over a motor vehicle's FUL of 120,000 miles (40 CFR 86.1811-04). In particular, catalyst deterioration must be minimized and catalyst temperatures controlled during all motor vehicle operation modes for the catalyst to work properly (

i.e.,

for it to maintain the necessary high efficiency demanded by the Tier 2 standards). To do so, some manufacturers incorporated learned or adaptive fuel trim into their motor vehicle designs to help control the A/F ratio and alleviate catalyst temperature increases even under open-loop conditions. Others, through careful hardware selection and certain calibration approaches, designed their motor vehicles with higher thermal margins to accommodate the effects of enleanment with gasoline-ethanol blends. Regardless of their approach, all manufacturers have warranted their Tier 2 vehicles for operation on E10, and we believe, based on available data, that they are capable of operating on gasoline-ethanol blends up to E15 as well.

The test data that has been collected supports our engineering assessment. Several test programs were conducted by CRC, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory and DOE to study the effects of E15 on Tier 2 vehicles, with the key study being the recently completed DOE Catalyst Study, discussed in more detail below. The CRC Screening Study and the DOE Pilot Study measured exhaust and catalyst temperature and/or evaluated the ability of motor vehicles to apply learned fuel trim to adjust for the enleanment due to ethanol during open-loop operation. As discussed above, leaner, hotter exhaust subjects the catalyst to greater risk of high temperatures and long-term catalyst deterioration and damage, and applying the learned fuel trim to open-loop operation is one of several methods manufacturers use to protect against this. Since roughly half of the motor vehicles tested in these test programs, including roughly half of the Tier 2 motor vehicles, did not apply learned fuel trim, and those motor vehicles that did not apply learned fuel trim experienced higher catalyst and exhaust temperatures with E15, these screening studies highlighted the potential for concern. However, the lack of compensating for ethanol content while in open-loop operation indicates only the potential for temperature problems to occur, and elevated temperatures only indicate the potential for catalyst deterioration; motor vehicles that do not apply learned fuel trim may still have sufficient thermal margins.

To evaluate the actual impacts of E15 on Tier 2 motor vehicles, DOE performed a catalyst durability test program,

the DOE Catalyst Study, throughout 2009 and 2010 on 19 Tier 2 motor vehicle models from high sales volume models of the various light-duty motor vehicle manufacturers. The specific purpose of the program was to evaluate the long term effects of E0, E10, E15, and E20 on catalyst system durability. The program also provided other limited but valuable information relevant to today's partial waiver decision, such as materials compatibility, evaporative control system integrity, diagnostic system sensitivity and general driveability. Without the results from this test program, EPA would not have had the information necessary to properly assess the long-term exhaust emission (durability) performance of E15. Program results indicate that the changes manufacturers made (calibration, hardware,

etc.

) to their motor vehicles to comply with the Tier 2 standards have in fact resulted in the capability of the motor vehicle catalysts to withstand the additional enleanment caused by E15, regardless of whether or not the motor vehicles utilized learned fuel trim while in open-loop operation. The test program results show that a representative cross section of the Tier 2 fleet maintained their exhaust emission performance on E15 over the full useful life of the motor vehicles. The discussion which follows contains a description of the DOE Catalyst Study and presents and analyzes its results.

Catalyst Durability Study,

Department of Energy Tier 2 vehicle testing completed September 2010. Final report due early 2011.

i. DOE Catalyst Study Overview

The Intermediate Ethanol Blends Emissions Controls Durability Test Program (“DOE Catalyst Study”) was established in 2008, following enactment of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, to investigate the potential impacts of gasoline-ethanol blend levels above 10% on the durability of vehicle emissions control systems. The program was subcontracted to Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), Transportation Research Center (TRC) and Environmental Testing Corporation (ETC).

ii. Vehicle Selection and Matching

Several relevant criteria were used to determine the motor vehicle models selected:

• Tier-2 compliant.

• Manufacturer and sales/registration volumes.

• Whether a motor vehicle did or did not apply learned fuel trim (LFT or non-LFT, respectively) at wide-open throttle (WOT).

Other studies also impacted selection: EPA's EPAct motor vehicle study at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) which was expanded into the CRC's E-89 study,

CRC's E-87-1 study (CRC Screening Study), and the DOE Pilot Study. Based on the motor vehicle models EPA used to represent the Tier 2 fleet in the CRC E-89 study, DOE consulted with CRC and then instructed the national laboratories to utilize the same set of motor vehicle models for the long-term durability studies, with one exception (at the request of CRC, they switched out a Toyota Sienna for a Nissan Quest).

E-89, Energy Policy Act (EPAct) Light-duty Vehicle Fuel Effects. (EPA and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are sponsoring extensive testing of ethanol fuel effects in connection with project E-89.)

All the motor vehicles within a model set (one motor vehicle for each fuel tested within a model) were matched to prevent confounding of the data by undesirable motor vehicle attribute changes. The engine family, engine displacement, evaporative emissions control family, model year, powertrain control unit calibration, axle ratios, wheel size, and tire size were constrained to be identical within a motor vehicle set. Physical inspections of the motor vehicles to eliminate obvious problematic motor vehicles (such as those with gross fluid leaks, obvious and excessive body damage,

etc.

) were also a part of the selection. Pre-owned motor vehicles' initial odometer readings were to be within 10,000 miles amongst a motor vehicle set.

EN04NO10.000

iii. Fuels and Blending

Emissions and related tests were conducted using an emissions certification gasoline and splash blending batches of E10, E15, and E20 on site. The gasoline-ethanol blends were blended from emissions certification gasoline and denatured fuel-grade ethanol. These emissions test fuels were termed E0 (for ethanol-free emissions fuel), E10 (for 10% ethanol emissions fuel), E15 (for 15% ethanol emissions fuel) and E20 (for 20% ethanol emissions fuel).

Aging fuels were produced by splash blending fuel-grade ethanol with non-ethanol containing gasoline obtained commercially by the subcontractors in their local area, rather than emissions certification gasoline. The aging fuels were designated RE0, RE10, RE15, and RE20 with “R” conveying blending from retail gasoline.

iv. Emissions Test Protocol

Motor vehicles were subjected to emissions (FTP) and related tests at the following points during the test program: (1) At the beginning of mileage accumulation; (2) at least one mid-mileage point; and (3) at the end of mileage accumulation. DOE consulted with CRC on recommended testing procedures. At SwRI and TRC, the acceptance tests also included WOT tests to aid in classifying the vehicles as either LFT or non-LFT motor vehicles. At each emissions test interval, duplicate FTP tests were conducted on each motor vehicle using both the gasoline-ethanol blend assigned to the motor vehicle as well as E0. (

i.e.

the “E15” motor vehicle received duplicate FTPs on both E15 and E0.) The motor vehicles also underwent compression and leak-down checks at each emissions interval. Tier 2 compliant motor vehicles were driven up to their full-useful life (120,000 miles). The initial mileages of the Tier 2 motor vehicles ranged from near zero to approximately 50,000 miles. These vehicles were driven approximately 70,000-120,000 miles during the program.

New motor vehicles were first aged to 4,000 miles to stabilize the engine and emissions control systems, followed by the initial emissions test. The motor vehicles then accumulated mileage until the first mid-aging emissions tests at

60,000 miles. This cycle was then repeated to 90,000 miles for the motor vehicles under test at ETC. At TRC and SwRI, the 90,000 mile emissions tests were not conducted. All vehicles ended aging at 120,000 miles. Pre-owned motor vehicle sets with less than 70,000 miles at the start were mid-aging tested at 95,000 miles with end-of-aging tests at 120,000 miles.

v. Mileage Accumulation

The standard road cycle (SRC) was used for all aging. The SRC is the official EPA driving cycle used for aging in the whole motor vehicle exhaust durability procedure. This is a recommended EPA procedure that the manufacturers regularly use for verifying full useful life emissions capability. It has an average speed of 46.3 mph and a maximum of 75 mph. The Nissan Quest aging was changed part way through aging to a series of steady speed laps on the test track at TRC at DOE's direction to accelerate completion of this motor vehicle set.

ETC and SwRI used mileage accumulation dynamometers (MADs) for aging. Motor vehicles at TRC were aged on a closed test track. Drivers followed the SRC as they drove the motor vehicles around the track. To complete the test program required motor vehicles to undergo anywhere from six to nine months of mileage accumulation and emission testing.

vi. Powertrain Component Inspection

At the end of motor vehicle mileage accumulations and emissions testing at SwRI, six pairs of engines were disassembled and analyzed for signs of wear and materials compatibility problems of concern with gasoline-ethanol blends that might indicate durability concerns with E15 that did not show up in the accelerated aging testing performed.

The eight different types of evaluations performed included:

Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) Project 08-58845 Status Report, “Powertrain Component Inspection from Mid-Level Blends Vehicle Aging Study,” September 6, 2010. EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-14016.

• Evaporative Emission System Integrity Check—a low pressure smoke leak test.

• Evaporative Canister Butane Working Capacity Check.

• Cam Lobe Wear—measuring overall cam height to indicate wear.

• Valve Seat Width and Valve Surface Contour—to measure wear on the valve seat.

• Valve Stem Height—to assess valve seat recession.

• Intake Valve Deposit measurement.

• ASTM D5185 Analysis of Engine Oil Drain Samples—to assess the presence of unusually high levels of wear metals.

• Fuel Pump Flow Evaluation.

vii. Summary and Conclusions of the Final Results of the DOE Catalyst Study

Tier 2 motor vehicle testing concluded in late September. Analysis of the FUL emissions performance and emissions deterioration rates showed no significant difference between the E0 and E15 fueled groups. As shown in Tables 2 and 3 below, three E0 aged motor vehicles had failing emissions levels at the end of the test program and one additional motor vehicle failed one of several replicate tests. Two E15 aged motor vehicles had failing emissions levels at the end of the test program. However, none of the emissions failures appeared to be associated with the differences in the aging fuels. There were no emissions component or material failures during aging that were related to fueling. There was a catalyst efficiency fault code on an E0 motor vehicle but not on the E15 counterpart.

Our assessment of motor vehicles that exceeded emissions standards at FUL mileage accumulation is that the exceedances were not attributable to the fuel used.

Table IV.A-2—E0 FUL Results Compared to Tier 2 Standards

Year

Model

LFT@WOT

NMOG

2007

Accord

Pass

Pass.

2006

Silverado

Pass

Pass.

2008

Altima

Pass

Fail

Pass.

2008

Taurus

Pass

Pass.

2007

Caravan

Pass

Pass.

2006

Cobalt

Pass

Pass.

2007

Caliber

Fail

Pass

Pass.

2009

Civic

Pass

Pass.

2009

Explorer

Pass

Pass.

2009

Corolla

Pass

Pass.

2009

Liberty

Pass

Pass.

2005

Tundra

Pass

Pass.

2006

Impala

Pass

Pass.

2005

F150

Pass

Pass.

2006

Quest

N/A

N/A.

2009

Outlook

Pass

Pass.

2009

Camry

Pass

Pass.

2009

Focus

Fail

Pass

Pass.

2009

Odyssey

Pass *

Pass

Pass.

Total Fails

* Denotes that average of emissions tests were below applicable FUL standard, but had at least one test value above the applicable FUL standard.

Table IV.A-3—E15 FUL Results Compared to Tier 2 Standards

Year

Model

LFT@WOT

NMOG

2007

Accord

Pass

Pass.

2006

Silverado

Pass

Pass.

2008

Altima

Pass

Pass.

2008

Taurus

Pass

Pass.

2007

Caravan

Pass

Pass.

2006

Cobalt

Pass

Pass.

2007

Caliber

Pass

Pass.

2009

Civic

Pass

Pass.

2009

Explorer

Pass

Pass.

2009

Corolla

Pass

Pass.

2009

Liberty

Pass

Pass.

2005

Tundra

Pass

Pass.

2006

Impala

Pass

Pass.

2005

F150

Pass

Pass.

2006

Quest

Fail

Pass

Pass.

2009

Outlook

Pass

Pass.

2009

Camry

Pass

Pass.

2009

Focus

Fail

Pass

Pass.

2009

Odyssey

Pass

Pass.

Total Fails

* Denotes that average of emissions tests were below applicable FUL standard, but had at least one test value above the applicable FUL standard.

Using

standard statistical tools, the resulting test results shown in Tables IV.A-2 and IV.A-3 support the conclusion that E15 does not cause Tier 2 motor vehicles to exceed their exhaust emission standards over their useful life.

Our assessment of motor vehicles that exceeded emissions standards at FUL mileage accumulation is that the exceedances were not attributable to the fuel used.

We performed a statistical analysis of this emission data to assess the impact of E15 on the rate of deterioration of exhaust emissions. We used a general linear model in SPSS

to perform this analysis. Each individual test motor vehicle was allowed its own base level of emissions (

e.g.,

the Taurus aged on E0 was allowed one base emission level and the Taurus aged on E15 was allowed a different base emission level). This reflects the fact that individual motor vehicles, even of the same design, have emissions levels that differ to at least the same order of magnitude as the effect of fuel quality on emissions. Each model type (

e.g.,

all of the Taurus motor vehicles as a group) was also allowed its own rate of emissions deterioration. This reflects the fact that motor vehicle design has a significant impact on the rate of emissions deterioration. We then tested the hypothesis that the effect of aging the motor vehicle on E15 caused a non-zero change in the rate of change in non-methane organic gases (NMOG) and NO

emissions. Each emission test was weighted to reflect the number of replicates performed on that motor vehicle at a specific mileage test point. For example, if only two replicate tests were performed on the Taurus aged on E0 at it mid-level test point (

i.e.,

67,000 miles), then each emission test was assigned a weight of 0.5. If three replicate tests were performed at that mileage, then each emission test was assigned a weight of 0.33.

The statistical analysis of the remaining Tier 2 exhaust emission data indicated that the rate of deterioration in NMOG emissions decreased on average, while that for NO

emissions increased. However, the impacts were not statistically significant deterioration at the 90% confidence level.

Thus, due to the variability in the effect across the various test motor vehicles, we cannot confidently reject the hypothesis that the emission deterioration rates on both blends are the same. In other words, there is a significant chance that the average impacts observed are the result of the randomness in the data. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the average changes in NMOG and NO

emissions deterioration rates went in opposite directions. If the catalysts had in fact been deteriorating faster with E15, then all emissions should have deteriorated consistently. Therefore, the catalyst durability test program results also support the conclusion that E15 will not contribute to Tier 2 motor vehicles exceeding their emission standards over their full useful life. The details of this statistical analysis can be found in an EPA Technical Summary located in the docket to this waiver decision.

The Agency has typically used a confidence level of 90% in CAA section 211(f)(4) waiver requests instead of the more conventional 95% confidence level. We feel that the 90% confidence level increases the likelihood that increases in deterioration would be statistically significant and therefore would be more conservative in this case. However, these differences are also not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.

Technical Summary of DOE Study on E15 Impacts On Tier 2 Vehicles and Southwest Research Teardown Report. EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211.

The results of the vehicle tear-down inspections were analyzed to assess whether E15 exhibited any signs of wear or materials incompatibility that might indicate durability concerns that could lead to elevated exhaust or evaporative emissions that might not have shown up in the FUL emission testing performed.

For seven of the eight evaluations performed, there were no apparent differences at the end-of-life between the motor vehicles that were operated on E15 and E0. While individual motor vehicle results varied (as one would expect in inspections such as this), there was no pattern that would suggest greater deterioration on E15, and none of the measurements indicated are a cause for a concern over powertrain durability for the Tier 2 motor vehicles evaluated. The one area where motor vehicles aged on E15 differed in their results was intake valve deposits. E15 showed a consistent and often significant increase in intake valve deposits in comparison to E0. This is not surprising given that prior detergent additive studies have shown E10 to be a more severe test fuel for intake valve deposits than E0. For this very reason the fuel on which fuel additive manufacturers must certify their detergent additive packages contains 10 vol% ethanol. Since the Tier 2 motor vehicles did not show increased exhaust emission deterioration over their FUL with E15 in comparison to E0, the increased intake valve deposits do not appear to have lead to a corresponding emissions increase. As a result, the finding that E15 leads to increased intake valve deposits appears to be primarily an issue to be addressed in

future gasoline detergent additive formulations.

Ibid.

Finally, the CRC engine durability study

has limited relevance for the waiver decision because it used only E20 fuel. Initial data is for eight motor vehicles ranging from MY2001-2009 with initial mileage as high as 110,000 miles. The engines were removed and dynamometer-aged for 500 hours with 50% of the time at wide-open throttle (3500 rpm). Since the study used only E20 fuel and did not test matching engines aged on E0, there is no way to determine the influence of the fuel blend on engine deterioration. There were some elevated leakdown measurements observed in the study but there is no way to determine if they were fuel blend related or would have occurred even with E0 fuel. Also, several motor vehicles were listed as failing the leak tests yet the motor vehicles passed the leak test at later points in the study. In any event, all the engines that completed aging passed their motor vehicle emissions tests.

CRC Project No. CM-136-09-1B Engine Durability Study of Mid-Level Ethanol blends, EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-14003.5.

2. Exhaust Emissions—Immediate Effects for MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

Instantaneous or immediate impacts of a fuel or fuel additive are those that are experienced essentially immediately upon switching from the original fuel. In the case of this partial waiver decision, the immediate exhaust emission impacts of interest are those that are caused by E15 in comparison to E0, which is the fuel on which the motor vehicles were certified. The immediate exhaust emission impacts must be taken into consideration along with the long-term or durability emission impacts discussed in the previous section in assessing the waiver. This section discusses the immediate exhaust emission impacts on MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles. Discussion of immediate exhaust emission impacts on other motor vehicles is addressed in their respective sections. However, since Growth Energy's submission and information supplied by commenters regarding immediate emission impacts of E15 were not specific to the model year of the motor vehicles, this section also contains much of the information on immediate emission impacts for other vehicles as well.

a. Growth Energy's Submission

Growth Energy supplied data produced from several test programs that measured the immediate emission impacts of E15 on motor vehicles spanning a range of model years, including several Tier 2 motor vehicles. Growth Energy claims that the ACE Study.

the RIT Study, the Minnesota Center for Automotive Research (MCAR) Study,

and a DOE Pilot Study show that E15 results in decreased emissions of NO

, non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and CO on average, and no increase in NMOG emissions when compared to E0. Growth Energy argues that these studies demonstrate that E15 will not cause or contribute to the failure of motor vehicles to meet their emissions standards. While much of the data cited by Growth Energy was on E20, they argued that because the studies they submitted with their application show favorable emissions performance on gasoline-ethanol blends that contained higher than 15 vol% ethanol (

i.e.,

E20), those results should be applicable to E15 by interpolation.

Optimal Ethanol Blend-level Investigation, Final Report prepared by Energy & Environmental Research Center and Minnesota Center for Automotive research for American Coalition for Ethanol “ACE Study”. EPA Docket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-0002.26.

Use of Mid-Range Ethanol/Gasoline Blends in Unmodified Passenger Cars and Light Duty Trucks, prepared by Minnesota Center for Automotive research July 1999 “MCARStudy.” EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-0002.24.

b. Public Comment Summary

The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (“The Alliance”) and several others commented that EPA has repeatedly outlined in past waiver decisions and public presentations important methodological considerations necessary to conduct a rigorous test program which would provide data sufficient to satisfy waiver criteria.

Comments from the Alliance describe the data requirements EPA has required in the past, specifically noting that those test programs required the following: (1) Use representative test fleets of motor vehicles available in the market; (2) conduct back-to-back motor vehicle pair testing to control for variability; (3) compare test fuel results with a baseline certification fuel; (4) use Federal certification test procedures (FTP) for emissions testing; (5) evaluate emissions effects over the full useful life for durability testing through real-world aging; and (6) perform statistical analyses to provide defensible results. The Alliance went on in their comments to highlight deficiencies in one or more of these data requirements in each of the studies cited by Growth Energy.

See

Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers Comments, National Petrochemical and Refiners Association, the American Petroleum Institute's Comments, and the Alliance for the Safe Alternative Fuels Environment comments in EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211.

Additionally, the Alliance and others argue that none of the studies submitted by Growth Energy used nationally “representative” test fleets. The Alliance points out that the American automobile fleet takes about 20 years to turn over, and that a well-executed study should have a test fleet that is proportionally similar to the model years that comprise the national fleet. The Alliance argues that a bulk of the emissions data cited in Growth Energy's waiver request focus on newer (

i.e.,

Tier 2) motor vehicles and do not adequately represent the national motor vehicle fleet and that these older motor vehicles may be more sensitive to the effects of higher gasoline-ethanol blends and constitute a greater portion of the number of motor vehicles currently in use. Many comments recommend that the Agency deny Growth Energy's request based on the potentially adverse effects of E15 on older motor vehicles.

Several commenters, including the automobile manufacturers, petroleum refiners, environmental organizations and State agencies, noted the expected linear relationship between ethanol content in gasoline-ethanol blends and increased NO

emissions. These commenters pointed out that the EPA Predictive Models, MOVES model and the MOBILE6.2 model all predicted increased NO

emissions as a gasoline-ethanol blend increases the ethanol content. These models are used for air quality modeling purposes for compliance with State and Federal air quality standards and are based on comprehensive motor vehicle testing spanning decades. These commenters argued further that these increases in NO

may cause a sizable portion of the motor vehicle fleet to exceed emissions standards, especially if a motor vehicle was close to the emissions standard.

c. EPA Analysis

The Agency agrees with commenters that there are several limitations of the studies cited by Growth Energy and/or the analyses they performed, which undermine their conclusions. The ACE study cited by Growth Energy does not provide useful information to assess the emissions performance of motor vehicles for purposes of this waiver decision since it tested three non-flex fuel Tier 2 motor vehicles primarily under high-speed and high-load conditions, atypical of most in-use motor vehicle operation and not representative of motor vehicle certification conditions. The study likely shows that the high heat of vaporization and high octane of ethanol

can enhance vehicle performance under wide-open throttle conditions and high loads, but the Agency believes that it is not relevant for evaluating emissions under normal operating conditions as observed on properly loaded motor vehicles tested on certification test cycles generally required for a waiver emission impacts demonstration.

The RIT Study cited by Growth Energy was an interim report of ongoing work in which E0 and E20 fuels were tested in 10 1998-2004 model year motor vehicles from the Monroe County Fleet Center, none of which were designed to comply with Tier 2 emission standards. The emissions testing performed at the time of Growth Energy's application failed to properly measure emissions related to the ethanol (

i.e.,

alcohols and aldehydes) which contribute to the NMOG emissions. Furthermore, the testing schedule did not perform back-to-back testing of the different fuels at common motor vehicle mileage intervals, thus confounding fuel and normal deterioration effects. As discussed below, we believe these shortcomings were subsequently corrected in later testing through the support of the NREL, but the data cited by Growth Energy could not be used to quantify the immediate emissions impacts of E15.

The MCAR Study cited by Growth Energy tested 15 motor vehicles of various model years from 1985 to 1998. However, the emissions were measured over only a hot portion of the certification cycle and the individual test results needed for analysis were never submitted or made available to the Agency. Therefore, it could not be used to compare the emissions performance of the motor vehicles to the emissions standards. Furthermore, since only E10 and E30 were tested, it cannot be used to quantify the immediate emission impacts relative to the official E0 certification fuel.

Only the DOE Pilot Study cited by Growth Energy provides useful information for assessing the immediate exhaust emission impacts of E15. It measured emissions from 16 vehicles, including seven Tier 2 compliant motor vehicles, on E0, E10, E15, and E20 splash blends over the LA92 drive cycle. However, even it is of limited usefulness in drawing conclusions regarding the impact of E15 across the large in-use motor vehicle fleet due to the limited size and nature of the test program (fleet makeup, test fuels). The DOE Pilot Study was not designed to quantify the emissions impact across the fleet but instead to probe a limited sample of high sales volume motor vehicles certified to different emission standards for any immediate emission problems. By itself, it is not a basis for drawing any definitive conclusions with respect to E15 emissions performance.

Thus, each of the individual studies is of limited value in evaluating the immediate emissions impact of E15 across the various groups of motor vehicles at issue in this partial waiver decision. As a group, these studies are no stronger as they do not fill the gaps in each of the various studies. Therefore, the Agency does not believe that the studies submitted by Growth Energy adequately support the conclusions that Growth Energy drew from them regarding the immediate exhaust emission impacts from using E15. At the same time, the Agency believes that there is sufficient data and information available to demonstrate that the immediate emissions impact of E15 follows the same pattern as E10 in that there will be a decrease in NMOG (as well as NMHC and total HC) and CO emissions and an increase in NO

emissions. While the magnitude of the NO

emissions increase is greater with E15 it is still not enough to cause at least Tier 2 compliant motor vehicles to violate their NO

emissions standard.

There is a long history of test programs that have been carried out on light-duty motor vehicles and trucks that have quantified the emission impacts of blending ethanol up to 10 vol% into gasoline. These test programs, dating back to the earliest days of gasoline-ethanol blends, have found that the oxygen content of ethanol enleans the A/F ratio in motor vehicles during open-loop operation, causing a decrease in HC and CO emissions, but also results in a corresponding increase in NO

emissions. These test programs have also shown that during normal closed-loop operation the combustion characteristics of ethanol contribute to small increases in NO

emissions. There are other factors that can play into the emission impacts, such as other changes to gasoline that occur or are made when ethanol is added, the high heat of vaporization and high octane of ethanol, and the design and control algorithms of the motor vehicle. However, similar emission trends with ethanol have been seen consistently in most carefully controlled and properly conducted studies. These studies have been used to develop emission models, such as the EPA Predictive Models

incorporated into the Agency's MOVES model,

that have been thoroughly peer reviewed. The result is that for a typical E10 blend of gasoline, exhaust NMHC emissions have been found to decrease by about 5%, and NO

emissions to increase by about 6%, relative to E0.

A detailed description of the development of the EPA Predictive Models is available in a Technical Support Document: “Analysis of California's Request for Waiver of the Reformulated Gasoline Oxygen Content Requirement for California Covered Areas”, EPA420-R-01-016, June 2001.

The Agency's MOVES model has undergone extensive peer review and testing, and incorporates the EPA Predictive Models.

These effects are based on the EPA Predictive Models and are generally consistent with conclusions of CRC E-74b report (

e.g.,

Figure ES-2). Fuels properties evaluated were based on market averages and were as follows: E0 had aromatics content of 29.5 vol%, a T50 of 215 °F, a T90 of 325 °F, and an RVP of 8.9 psi and E10 had aromatics content of 24.9 vol%, a T50 of 202 °F, T90 of 325 °F, and an RVP of 8.9 psi. Other parameters not mentioned here were assumed to be held constant between the blends.

While the magnitude of impact may vary by a few percent depending on the motor vehicle technology and how other fuel properties change when ethanol is blended into gasoline, the relative magnitude and direction of the impacts remains consistent for typical fuels.

Results based on data mostly from vehicle models that predated the Tier 2 emission standards, so several recent test programs have been focused on Tier 2 vehicles that will soon make up the majority of the in-use fleet.

While there is a great deal known about the immediate impacts of gasoline-ethanol blends on emissions from the past studies and modeling, it is all based on pre-Tier 2 motor vehicles and only ethanol blends up to E10. The issue for the waiver is whether the impacts of E15 would be significantly different in comparison to E0 and cause motor vehicles to violate their emission standards over their full useful life, and whether there is sufficient information to support such a conclusion for Tier 2 motor vehicles as well as other motor vehicles. While the information provided by Growth Energy was of limited value, we believe that the additional information that is now available can be used to assess the immediate emissions impacts on Tier 2 motor vehicles sufficiently to respond to the E15 waiver request.

CRC recently completed a test program (E-74b) that evaluated the emissions performance of E10 and E20 compared with E0 (“CRC Emissions Study”).

The study tested 15 MY1994-2006 motor vehicles on E0, E10, and E20. The motor vehicles represented a cross-section of several motor vehicle technologies and emissions compliance levels, and included three Tier 1, five NLEV, and seven Tier 2 motor vehicles. The test fuels were match-blended to yield appropriate test program volatility

goals while attempting to maintain other desired property targets, such as aromatics content and distillation behavior. The study's authors attempted to evaluate increased oxygen levels through the blending of ethanol in a variety of gasolines with fuel parameters representative of those found in the real world. Emissions performance testing was completed using the FTP at 75 °F and 50 °F. The study found a statistically significant positive linear relationship between the amount of ethanol blended into gasoline and NO

emissions when controlling other fuel parameters. In other words, as the level of ethanol blended into gasoline increased, the amount of NO

emissions also increased, and this effect remained relatively consistent across the motor vehicle technologies tested. Specifically, the study found that NO

emissions increased with E10 by about 9% relative to E0, consistent with the projection from the EPA Predictive Models when the study's fuel properties are input. NO

emissions for E20 increased by about 19% relative to E0. The test program also found that HC emissions declined from 8% to 16% over this same range. While not linear, a relationship of decreasing emissions with increasing ethanol content was also observed for CO emissions. Presumably the impacts of E15, had they tested it, would have fallen somewhere between those of E10 and E20.

CRC Report No. E-74b, “Effects of Vapor Pressure, Oxygen Content, and Temperature on CO Exhaust Emissions”, May 2009, EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-13980.

The DOE Pilot Study cited by Growth Energy tested 16 different MY1999-2007 light-duty motor vehicles on E0, E10, E15 and E20. These motor vehicles included three Tier 1, six NLEV, and seven Tier 2 motor vehicles of varying odometer mileage, generally proportional to age (

i.e.,

older motor vehicles had higher miles). Test fuels were splash blended with the certification E0 fuel allowing the other fuel properties (aromatic content, RVP,

etc.

) to change with ethanol dilution. The motor vehicles were tested over the LA92 drive cycle (also known as the Unified Cycle) which is considered to be representative of real-world acceleration rates and speeds.

The study found small reductions in NO

and NMOG emissions across the different fuels that were not statistically significant. While these findings do not show the NO

emissions increase and NMOG and CO emissions decrease that might be anticipated, this may have been due to the limited scope of the program, the test cycle, and other changes in the fuel properties known to directly impact emissions. Nonetheless, the results do not show that the immediate NO

emissions impacts of E15 to be of concern.

The Alliance commented that only the FTP test cycle should be used for emission impacts. While the LA92 cannot be used for confirmation of vehicle emissions compliance, it is used regularly in engineering and research work, including by manufacturers to measure emission impacts and confirm OBD monitor operation and therefore the Agency believes it remains a valid cycle for emissions analysis.

During the course of the DOE Catalyst Study (

see

Section IV.A.1.d), some back-to-back tests of E15 and E0 fuels were performed. This portion of the testing was not designed to be able to quantify the immediate emission impacts with any degree of statistical confidence unless the impacts turned out to be very large, and in fact it did not show any statistically significant changes in NO

or NMOG emissions for E15 compared to E0. At the same time, the data is useful in supporting the conclusion that the immediate emission impacts of E15 compared to E0 are not large, and likely in the same range as other studies have shown.

Finally, as mentioned above, RIT performed additional testing subsequent to the results Growth Energy submitted as part of its waiver request application. These later results were presented at a meeting of the Mid-Level Ethanol Blends Research Coordination Group on May 5, 2010.

These results showed a 13.9% reduction in HC (NMOG was not measured), 26.9% reduction in CO, and a 6.2% increase in NO

for E20 in comparison to E0. Again, presuming E10 and E15 results would lie within this range, these results are generally consistent with earlier studies and models and continue to confirm that no large increases in NO

emissions are expected.

RIT-CIMS/USDOT E20 Test and Evaluation Program May 2010, EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-14003.8.

When EPA assesses the more recent information and data available, we believe it shows both: (1) That Tier 2 motor vehicles exhibit similar immediate emission impact trends (small increases in NO

and small decreases in NMHC and CO) as the data and modeling show for older motor vehicles; and (2) that the immediate emission impacts of E15 continue to show the same trends as E10 with the effects being slightly exaggerated due to the higher ethanol content. These four studies (CRC E74b, the DOE Pilot Study, the DOE Catalyst Study, and the RIT Study) are all of limited size and scope and thus show considerable variation in their results, for NO

emissions in particular. However, taken together they suggest that the immediate emission impacts of E10 are likely to be comparable to those that would be projected using the EPA Predictive Models and that a slightly larger NO

emission impact would be expected with E15. Thus, the NO

emissions impact of E15 is likely to be in the range of 5% to 10% based on extrapolation from E10 modeling using the Agency's Predictive Models, and this impact would be expected to be roughly comparable for newer Tier 2 motor vehicles as well as older motor vehicles. For example, a Tier 2 motor vehicle that had NO

emissions levels of 0.030 grams per mile (“g/mi”) on E0 would be expected to have NO

emissions levels of 0.033 or less if the same motor vehicle was tested on E15.

Although the overall weight of the available data shows that E15 will cause an increase in NO

emissions, the issue is whether such increases, by themselves or in combination with long-term durability effects, would cause motor vehicles to exceed their certified emissions standards. Given the relatively small magnitude of the immediate NO

emissions increase in relation to the large compliance margins that motor vehicle manufacturers have traditionally built-in to the products they certify,

and the lack of any significant increase in NO

emissions deterioration with E15 in comparison to E0 (as discussed in section IV.A.1.a.), it is not anticipated that using E15 will cause or contribute to Tier 2 compliant motor vehicles exceeding their emissions standards.

A compliance margin is the difference between the emission standard and a vehicle or engine's actual certification emission level. This certification level includes the manufacturer's projected rate of deterioration over the useful life of the vehicle.

A survey of official EPA Certification data showed that the average compliance margins for the MY2007 light-duty motor vehicle fleet was over 50% for NO

emissions.

This margin is designed into motor vehicles by the manufacturer to account for variations in production vehicles and changes to the motor vehicle during actual field usage. Additionally, data collected from EPA's In-use Verification Program (IUVP) demonstrate large compliance margins for motor vehicles operating in real-world conditions. IUVP is a manufacturer run program in which manufacturers test motor vehicles for emissions levels and submit the results to EPA. IUVP was designed to ensure that light-duty motor vehicles are meeting emissions standards in-use

versus only through the certification process. According to the data submitted to EPA, the in-use compliance margins are similar to compliance margins experienced during certification. For IUVP testing for MY2007 as of August 2010, the average compliance margin for light-duty motor vehicles certified to the Tier 2 Bin 5 standard was over 60%.

See 2007 Progress Report: Vehicle and Engine Compliance Activities.

These compliance margin values are consistent with the general trend EPA has seen for Tier 2 vehicles.

Tier 2 Bin 5 is the certification standard for a large majority of vehicles certified in MY2007 (approximately 80%).

See 2007 Progress Report: Vehicles and Engine Compliance Activities.

In addition, the results of the recently completed DOE Catalyst Study also supports this conclusion for Tier 2 motor vehicles. While the Catalyst Durability Test Program was carried out to assess long-term exhaust emissions (durability) impacts, the immediate emission impacts of ethanol are also captured in the testing. All but two of the Tier 2 motor vehicles tested continued to comply with their exhaust emission standards at FUL despite both the immediate and durability impacts of E15 on emissions. One motor vehicle appeared to exceed the standard not due to E15, but other problems, as it also exceeded the standard on E0. The other motor vehicle model experienced catastrophic issues with the comparable E0 and E20 motor vehicles which were unable to complete the testing. Those motor vehicles that complied with the standard on E15 continued to comply as is typical in IUVP data.

EPA, in collaboration with DOE and CRC has recently completed the testing part of the largest fuels emission research program conducted in the past two decades to assess the impacts of gasoline fuel properties on emissions, including the relationship between ethanol content and higher NO

emissions. E-89 “Comprehensive Gasoline Light-duty Exhaust Fuel Effects Test Program.” The test program evaluated emission changes on a motor vehicle test fleet consisting of 15 Tier 2 vehicles (including three FFVs) that was specifically selected to be representative of the makes and models in the national light-duty motor vehicle fleet. The focus was on Tier 2 vehicles to fill a data gap, since existing emission models are based on testing conducted on older technology vehicles. The program used 27 fuels of varying volatility (RVP), aromatic content, distillation range (T50 and T90) and ethanol concentrations (E0, E10, E15 and E20), which were blended specially to allow emission impacts to be attributed to one fuel parameter or another. Each vehicle in the test program had multiple emissions tests conducted on each fuel resulting in nearly 1000 emissions tests. While testing has been completed, the Agency is still in the process of working with DOE and CRC to evaluate the test data and develop emission models based on it to allow an understanding of the impacts of fuel changes on emissions. However, since the evaluations of the data have not been completed and the data is not publicly available, EPA is not relying on the data for purposes of evaluating the waiver request. EPA has reviewed the data preliminarily solely to determine whether it would be appropriate to delay making a decision until the evaluation is complete and the test program results could be incorporated into a decision on the waiver. EPA's view based on its preliminary review of the data is that it is appropriate to go forward at this time with the waiver decision, as it is anticipated that the test program will reinforce the results found in the earlier studies and in the EPA Predictive Models.

d. Conclusion

While data is limited on Tier 2 motor vehicles, and particularly with E15, there is a long history of test programs that have been carried out on light-duty motor vehicles and trucks that have quantified the immediate emissions impacts of blending ethanol into gasoline. The common theme across these various test programs is that, consistent with combustion theory, the enleanment of the A/F ratio caused by the oxygen in ethanol leads to an immediate reduction in HC and CO emissions and a corresponding increase in NO

emissions. While other factors influence this, such as the combustion characteristics of the ethanol itself, other changes that occur in the gasoline when ethanol is added, and the test conditions under which the emissions are measured, cause some variations in study results, the bottom line is that the emissions changes are fairly well known. Several more recent studies have been performed looking at the impacts of gasoline-ethanol blends on more recent Tier 2 compliant motor vehicles, as well as some older model year motor vehicles. The size, scope, and design of these studies limit the ability to draw any firm conclusion to quantify the precise magnitude of the immediate emissions impacts. However, analysis of this more recent data in the context of historical data and modeling leads to the conclusion that Tier 2 motor vehicles likely respond similarly to older technology motor vehicles with respect to immediate emissions impacts, and that the magnitude of the immediate emissions impacts of E15 are relatively small, with decreases in NMHC and CO emissions and increases in NO

emissions in the range of 5 to 10% depending on how other fuel properties change. For Tier 2 motor vehicles, there is generally a significant margin in both motor vehicle certification and in-use to emit within the emission standards even if the motor vehicle experiences the predicted immediate NO

increases from E15 when compared to E0.

The Agency believes that the data above, coupled with the average compliance margins, are sufficient to show that the immediate exhaust emissions effects by themselves would not cause motor vehicles to exceed their exhaust standards over their useful lives. As discussed earlier, however, whether the fuel or fuel additive will cause motor vehicles to exceed their exhaust emission standards requires consideration of the combined impact of immediate emissions increases and the long-term exhaust emissions (durability) effects.

Separately, the Agency has been performing analysis needed to support the anti-backsliding analysis required under the Energy Independence and Security Act. We are now in the process of assessing possible control measures to offset the potential increases in ozone and particulate matter that are expected to result from the increased use of renewable fuels required by EISA and in response to the May 21, 2010 presidential memorandum directive. (NO

emissions contribute to the formation of both pollutants.) We will incorporate the results of our analysis under this assessment in a proposal on new motor vehicle and fuel control measures.

3. Evaporative Emissions on MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles

a. Introduction

EPA has set evaporative emission standards for motor vehicles since 1971. During the ensuing years, these evaporative standards have continued to evolve, resulting in additional evaporative emissions reductions. Thus, consideration of the impact of E15 on evaporative emissions compliance requires consideration of the applicable evaporative emissions standards to which the particular motor vehicles were certified. There are now five main components to motor vehicle evaporative emissions that are important for our standards: (1) Diurnal (evaporative emissions that come off the fuel system as a motor vehicle heats up during the course of the day); (2) hot soak (evaporative emissions that come off a hot motor vehicle as it cools down after the engine is shut off); (3) running loss (evaporative emissions that come off the fuel system during motor vehicle operation); (4) permeation (evaporative emissions that come through the walls of elastomers in the fuel system and are measured as part of the diurnal test); and (5) unintended leaks due to deterioration/damage that is now largely monitored through onboard diagnostic standards.

Prior to MY1999, the evaporative emissions standards addressed diurnal and hot soak emissions, but the test procedure did not require control of running loss and permeation emissions. The Enhanced Evaporative Emissions requirements were fully phased in for Light-duty motor vehicles and light-duty trucks by MY1999. These new requirements included both new standards and new test procedures: The two-day and three-day diurnal tests with new canister loading procedures, and a running loss test. In addition to the new procedures, the useful life was

extended from 5 years/50,000 miles to 10 years/100,000 miles for light-duty motor vehicles.

Along with the Enhanced Evaporative Emissions requirements, EPA introduced the On Board Diagnostic (OBD) requirements for evaporative leak detection monitors. This required motor vehicles to detect a leak equivalent to .040 inch in the fuel or evaporative emissions system. Beginning in MY2001, EPA allowed manufacturers to comply with California OBD regulations which required motor vehicles to detect a leak equivalent to a .020 inch. While not required Federally, many manufacturers developed one leak detection system for sale in all 50 States which complied with the more stringent California requirement.

The Federal Tier 2 evaporative emissions standards

were phased in beginning in 2004 with the exhaust standards and were fully phased in by 2007 for light-duty motor vehicles (2009 for HLDT and MDPV). These standards were significantly lower (over a 50% reduction for LDVs and LLDTs—as seen in Table 1 below) and used the same test procedures, which were introduced with the Enhanced Evaporative Emissions requirements. However, one important change was made in that a demonstration of evaporative system durability on E10 was required to address concerns with respect to permeation of hydrocarbons through elastomers in the fuel and evaporative emission systems. This prompted manufacturers to change materials to those with improved permeation barriers with ethanol. Once again in 2009 the evaporative emission standards for LDVs were cut nearly in half with the introduction of the Federal LEV II requirements, a harmonization of Federal and California evaporative standards.

See

Table IV.A-4 below. This section discusses the evaporative emissions impacts on MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles. Discussion of evaporative emission impacts on older motor vehicles is addressed in sections IV.B. and IV.C. However, since the information we received through Growth Energy's waiver request application, information supplied by commenters, and other available information regarding evaporative emission impacts of ethanol blends were not specific to the model year of the motor vehicles, this section also contains some of the information covering older motor vehicles as well.

This Decision refers to several vehicle types as commonly used acronyms: Light-duty motor vehicles (LDV), light-duty trucks (LDT), light light-duty trucks (LLDT), heavy light-duty trucks (HLDT), and medium-duty passenger vehicles (MDPV).

See

“Vehicle Weight Classifications” found at:

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/standards/weights.htm.

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b. Growth Energy's Submission

Growth Energy primarily argued that based on the similar volatility and permeation characteristics of E15 to E10, the evaporative emissions for motor vehicles using E15 should be no

worse than those from motor vehicles using E10. Growth Energy pointed to two studies to support this conclusion. The first study cited was the E-65-3 study on permeation conducted by the CRC.

The E-65-3 study measured the impact of E6, E10, E20, and E85 gasoline-ethanol blends on permeation and diurnal canister breakthrough emissions in comparison to E0 on test rigs taken from five MY2000-2005 California motor vehicles. The testing was performed on California fuels using California test procedures.

CRC Report No. E-65-3,

Fuel Permeation from Automotive Systems: E0, E6, E10, E20 and E85 Final Report,

December, 2006. EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-0211-14012.

The second study cited was completed by the University of Stockholm for the government of Sweden to investigate the potential effects that increased ethanol levels blended into gasoline may have if approved for use in Sweden (“Stockholm Study”).

The Stockholm Study is primarily a literature review that includes studies and experiences with gasoline-ethanol blends in several countries (

e.g.,

Brazil, the Netherlands, and Australia). As part of the Stockholm Study, a small test program compared vapor generation rates from two summer-time gasoline fuels blended with ethanol at contents of zero, five, 10, and 15 vol%. The Stockholm Study found that the impact of ethanol on the RVP of gasoline blends peaked somewhere between E5 and E10, consistent with past studies.

Growth Energy Request Letter—Tab 4, 1st half, EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-0002.12.

Other than cross-referencing materials compatibility testing, Growth Energy did not address the potential impacts of E15 on evaporative emissions durability, hot soak and running loss emissions, or fuel system integrity (leaks as monitored by the OBD system) to assess noncompliance with the evaporative emissions standards. Growth Energy simply used these two studies to argue that the evaporative emissions of E15 will be lower or no worse than E10 or E6. They argued that since the CRC Permeation Study and the Stockholm Study show no increases in evaporative emissions between E10 and E15, that materials compatibility testing showed no problem, and that if EPA can place a condition requiring finished fuels to meet ASTM volatility specifications, evaporative emissions criteria for a waiver are satisfied.

c. Public Comment Summary

Several commenters point to design flaws and limitations with both the Stockholm Study and CRC Study which underscore the need for more investigation into E15's impact on vehicles' evaporative emissions. API and others argue that the fuels used in the Stockholm Study's evaporative emissions test program do not resemble fuels produced and used in the United States. API argues that RVP of the base fuels tested in the program are relatively high in comparison to summertime non-ethanol fuels used in the US (9.14 and 10.15 psi). API also argues that since the test program did not complete the evaporative emissions testing in the VT-SHED with actual vehicles and did not utilize the EPA approved Federal Test Procedure, it would be difficult to determine what the actual emissions results for E15 would have been under real world conditions.

Similarly, many commenters noted limitations and concerns with the CRC E-65-3 permeation study cited by Growth Energy. The study did not evaluate evaporative emissions from entire motor vehicles, but rather from test rigs set up specifically to study permeation rates with various gasoline-ethanol blends. While the study also measured diurnal emissions by measuring breakthrough of the canister, it did so only using very low RVP fuels that met California's reformulated gasoline standards. Further, the test rigs were uniquely configured for precise permeation measurement and not for a quantitative assessment of vapors from canister breakthrough.

Several commenters allude to the fact that Growth Energy provided no analysis of how evaporative emissions control systems will behave over the full useful lives of motor vehicles. The New York Department of Environmental Conservation (“NYDEC”) expressed in particular their concern that full useful life testing is needed since E15 could cause increased water absorption which in turn may lead to decreased canister capacity and evaporative emissions breakthrough of the canister.

Several comments noted that Growth Energy often compares performance results of E15 to E10 rather than E15 to certification fuel (E0) to satisfy waiver criteria. AllSAFE and the Alliance both suggest that EPA has a legal obligation to only consider comparisons of E15 to certification fuel. AllSAFE argues that EPA has required that CAA section 211(f)(4) waiver requests compare the test fuel with certification fuel over the past 30 years, and that comparing E15 to E10 would be making a comparison between two fuels that are not “substantially similar” to certification fuel. AllSAFE continues by arguing that allowing comparisons to fuels that have been granted waivers rather than a comparison to fuels that are substantially similar to certification fuels may allow for “incremental creep” that might mask emissions effects of new fuels or fuel additives.

d. EPA Analysis

Growth Energy's conclusions with respect to evaporative emission impacts are not adequately supported by the evidence they submitted. They did not provide any test data of in-use motor vehicles showing that they continued to meet their evaporative emission standards over their full useful life, but rather provided only limited information to address these concerns. The Stockholm Study they cited cannot be used to assess actual motor vehicle emission performance in comparison to their standards, but rather simply quantifies the potential increase in vapor generation rates (fuel volatility) for various gasoline-ethanol blends. Increased vapor generation may result in increased motor vehicle emissions, but one needs to evaluate this in the context of evaporative emissions control systems on actual motor vehicles.

The CRC E-65-3 permeation study cited by Growth Energy did not evaluate evaporative emissions from entire motor vehicles, but rather from test rigs set up specifically to study permeation rates with various gasoline-ethanol blends. This study measured diurnal using only very low RVP fuels that met California's reformulated gasoline standards. As a result, it cannot be used to assess the impact on diurnal emissions of higher volatility fuels. However, perhaps the most important limitation of this study is simply that it was a predecessor to much more comprehensive studies not addressed by Growth Energy (E-77, E-77-2, E-77-2b, E-77-2c)

into the permeation and evaporative emission impacts of various gasoline-ethanol blends that grew out of the original E-65-3 study.

These studies are available at

http://www.crcao.org.

In addition to these study limitations, perhaps the most important concern is that Growth Energy failed to use the available information to perform the correct comparison. To grant a waiver for a fuel or fuel additive under CAA section 211(f)(4), it must be shown that motor vehicles will continue to meet their evaporative emission standards over their full useful life. Short of actual test data on motor vehicles demonstrating this, the evaluation of the potential emissions impacts must compare motor vehicles using the new fuel or fuel additive to their emissions performance on the fuel they were

certified on, in this case E0. Instead, when considering the potential permeation and diurnal emission impacts, Growth Energy only drew their conclusion for E15 relative to E10 and E6, which themselves have been demonstrated in the CRC studies to cause elevated permeation and diurnal emissions.

Growth Energy also failed to address potential long-term evaporative emission durability concerns in any meaningful way, referencing only the materials compatibility work discussed in section IV.A.4.

Despite the limitations of the Growth Energy petition with respect to vehicle evaporative emissions, the Agency believes that sufficient information is available through other studies to support the conclusion that as long as E15 meets a summertime gasoline volatility level of no higher than 9.0 psi, Tier 2 compliant motor vehicles—which includes all MY2007 and newer gasoline-fueled light-duty motor vehicles and trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles—are expected to continue to comply with their evaporative emissions standards on E15.

By virtue of testing of motor vehicles with gasoline-ethanol blends for more than three decades, it is known that gasoline-ethanol blends can have negative impacts on evaporative emissions when compared to E0 on which the motor vehicles are certified. Ethanol impacts diurnal emissions primarily through its impact on the volatility of the gasoline-ethanol blend, boosting the RVP of the final gasoline-ethanol blend by approximately 1 psi unless the gasoline blendstock is produced to offset the increase. Permeation emissions through elastomers in fuel tanks, lines, valves, and connectors have been shown to be strongly influenced by the presence of ethanol in the fuel, though the Tier 2 standards have minimized this impact for Tier 2 compliant motor vehicles. Hot soak and running loss emissions will change in chemical composition with gasoline-ethanol blends and could be impacted over the long term by impacts of ethanol on motor vehicle component materials. Ethanol is also known to cause degradation of certain materials that have been used in motor vehicle gasoline and evaporative emission control systems that could lead to increased evaporative emissions over time. As a result of the changing emission standards and motor vehicle designs over the years, these impacts of ethanol on evaporative emissions will vary depending on the age of the motor vehicle. The discussion which follows is focused on the impact on Tier 2 motor vehicles.

For hot soak and running loss emissions, E15 should not impact compliance with the evaporative emissions standards (

see

Figures 1 and 2). Data from the CRC E-77 test programs suggest that there may be some correlation between hot soak and running loss

emissions and ethanol content, but the impact is small, of questionable statistical significance, and may be related to permeation that occurs during the testing (

see

Figures IV.A-1 and 2).

Running loss emissions measured in the E-77 programs did not use the certification cycle. The study was focused on the worst case for permeation emissions and therefore used back-to-back LA92 cycles to increase the tank temperature with more aggressive driving. The certification cycle uses the NYCC which has many stops and starts, making it more difficult to purge the canister. There was no canister breakthrough measured during running loss tests in the study, therefore the chart in Figure 2 shows the effects of ethanol and RVP on running loss permeation.

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The CRC E-77 test programs also support the conclusion that diurnal evaporative emissions with E15 are likely to be comparable to those with E0 at the same RVP. Testing performed on E0, E10, and E20 shows that diurnal emissions are a function of the volatility of the fuel, not the ethanol content. As the volatility of the fuel was increased, the number of motor vehicles which experienced canister emissions breakthrough also increased, with seven of eight Tier 2 motor vehicles experiencing canister breakthrough at 10.0 psi RVP. These elevated diurnal emissions are not unexpected since the increased volatility of 10.0 psi versus 9.0 psi fuel results in roughly a 25% increase in evaporative vapor generation that must be captured by the canister beyond what has been required of manufacturers in motor vehicle certification. Almost any canister breakthrough would be enough to cause Tier 2 motor vehicles to exceed their evaporative emissions standard. However, since these tests were done on a more severe diurnal cycle of 65 °F-105 °F (California cycle), as opposed to the Federal requirement of 72 °F-96 °F, these test results only serve to highlight the concern that fuel with a higher volatility than 9.0 psi RVP during the summer will lead to motor vehicles exceeding their evaporative emissions standard in-use, but do not demonstrate it. At the same time, the Agency is also not aware of any data that would show that E15 with an RVP greater than 9.0 psi would in fact allow motor vehicles to continue to meet their evaporative emissions standards. Given this lack of data and the significant potential for increased evaporative emissions at higher gasoline volatility levels, the E15 waiver can only be considered in the context of E15 that maintains the same volatility as required of E0 certification fuel. As long as the volatility of the fuel does not exceed 9.0 psi during the summer, diurnal emissions from E15 are not anticipated to cause the motor vehicles to exceed their evaporative emissions standards. In addition to the increased evaporative emissions impacts that would result from allowing E15 to have a higher RVP than E0, as discussed in section X, EPA interprets CAA section 211(h)(4) as limiting the 1.0 psi waiver to gasoline-ethanol blends that contain 10 vol% ethanol, including limiting the provision concerning “deemed to be in full compliance” to the same 10 vol% blends. This interpretation is also consistent with how EPA has historically implemented CAA section 211(h)(4) through 40 CFR 80.27(d), which provides that gasoline-ethanol blends that contain at least 9 vol% ethanol and not more than 10 vol% ethanol qualify for the 1.0 psi waiver of the applicable RVP standard.

While the CRC E-77 test programs were extremely valuable in assessing diurnal emissions, their primary purpose was to allow the quantification and modeling of evaporative permeation emissions separate and apart from other evaporative emissions for E0, E10, and E20. Some key findings of the test programs were that gasoline-ethanol blends can significantly increase permeation emissions compared to pure gasoline. However, consistent with the results from the E-65-3 test program, it appears that the magnitude of the impact is relatively constant across E6, E10, and E20 blends,

i.e.,

no statistically significant difference. In other words, permeation emissions are a strong function of the presence of ethanol in the gasoline, not a strong function of the concentration within the range tested. Consequently, results for E15 would be anticipated to be comparable to those

for E10 and E20. The results of the test program also demonstrate the effectiveness of the Tier 2 evaporative emissions standards at reducing permeation emissions. Based on the test results shown in Figure IV.A-3, the additional permeation emissions caused by the ethanol in E15 relative to results with E0 would appear to add little if anything, given the confidence intervals, to the evaporative emissions measurements of a Tier 2 motor vehicle operating over the Federal test cycle. Given the magnitude of manufacturer's evaporative emissions compliance margins for Tier 2 motor vehicles, as shown in Figure IV.A-4, any increase in permeation due to E15 should not be sufficient to cause Tier 2 motor vehicles to exceed their evaporative emission standards.

Permeation here will include some background motor vehicle emissions, such as off-gassing from plastic components. The test procedure excluded canister breakthrough emissions and any refrigerant and methanol windshield washer solvent emissions.

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In addition to immediate evaporative emission impacts, Tier 2 motor vehicles'

evaporative emissions controls systems were designed for regular E10 use, and they should be compatible and durable with E15 use over the full useful life of the motor vehicle. While they are tested for compliance with their applicable evaporative emissions standards on E0, these motor vehicles are required to demonstrate durability of the evaporative emissions control systems by performing aging with E10; therefore, these motor vehicles must demonstrate that they meet their evaporative emissions standards over their full useful lives after essentially operating exclusively on E10 prior to the certification testing. In other words, the seals, connections and other evaporative and fuel system hardware must be designed to meet evaporative emissions standards over their full useful lives after aging exclusively on E10. In addition to designing them for sustained E10 exposure, these designs must have sufficient design robustness to encompass production variability in materials and tolerances. Robustness in the design of these components should provide the safety margin manufacturers target for volume production. That same robustness is what we believe should allow for durability on E15, and the available test data supports this conclusion.

The two-day evaporative in-use data includes light-duty motor vehicles, light-duty trucks, and MDPVs, with the appropriate standards for each type of motor vehicle given in Table IV.A-4.

Testing conducted as part of the DOE Catalyst Study supports the conclusion that Tier 2 motor vehicle evaporative emissions systems should be durable in-use when operating on E15. The program, described above in section IV.A.1, did not show any evidence of evaporative emissions related problems. The onboard diagnostic monitors on the motor vehicles did not set any fault codes for evaporative emission system leaks. Furthermore, no physical differences were found between the impacts of E15 and E0 on motor vehicle components exposed to fuel or fuel vapor during the teardowns of the 12 Tier 2 motor vehicles analyzed (six aged on E0 and six aged on E15).

In the same study, one of DOE's contractors performed evaporative emission testing on eight of the Tier 2 motor vehicles (four aged on E0 and four aged on E15) on which they were performing motor vehicle aging and exhaust emission deterioration testing. They performed evaporative emission tests at the same mileage intervals where they measured exhaust emission performance. While this was only a limited sample size, and not directly applicable to Federal certification testing due to the lower RVP of the test fuels, they did not show any greater deterioration in evaporative emission performance over time on E15 compared to E0 (

See

Figure IV.A-5). While EPA is aware of another ongoing study, AVFL-15, which is looking at the durability of fuel system components, our understanding is that it is performing the testing on E20 using an atypical, “aggressive” ethanol. Consequently, while it may provide useful information for the manufacturers in designing their motor vehicles for the worst case conditions, it would not appear that it would have any bearing on the E15 partial waiver decision being made today.

Technical Summary of DOE Study on E15 Impacts on Tier 2 Vehicles and Southwest Research Teardown Report.

See

EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211.

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e. Conclusion

The vehicles in this study were not aged over standard evaporative emissions systems aging protocol but rather underwent rapid mileage accumulation. Three vehicles are presented here as the fourth vehicle developed a leak and the data was not comparable for fuel effects.

In assessing the potential impacts of E15 on evaporative emissions in their waiver application, Growth Energy did not draw their conclusions by comparing E15 to certification fuel (E0), but rather compared E15 to other gasoline-ethanol blends. In addition, Growth Energy provided only limited information on whether E15 would cause motor vehicles to violate their evaporative emission standards over their full useful lives. In fact, they made only a passing reference to potential evaporative emissions durability impacts of E15. As a result, they did not adequately support their waiver application with respect to evapora

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