Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Congressional research reportNov 23, 2022

Ask Donna

What actually matters in this document.

Text

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes

in Consumption

November 23, 2022

Congressional Research Service

https://crsreports.congress.gov

R47317

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in

Consumption

R47317

November 23, 2022

Michael Ratner

The future of natural gas as a fuel for the global economy depends on many factors, including

Specialist in Energy Policy

supply, consumption, prices, transportation, and policies. In 2020, natural gas made up

approximately 25% of the world’s primary energy mix. Unlike other fuels, natural gas is used in

multiple ways: as a heating fuel for homes, business, and industrial processes, to produce

electricity, as a feedstock for petrochemicals and fertilizers, and in other less prominent ways.

The market for natural gas is evolving and it is likely that natural gas will remain a key component of the world’s energy mix

for decades to come. As demands for natural gas have changed so has the natural gas market.

The 2022 Russian war against Ukraine has brought to the front the geopolitical dimensions of natural gas. Russia is the

world’s largest exporter of natural gas, primarily by pipelines to Europe. Europe is also Russia’s biggest natural gas market.

Some EU member states and companies had been reluctant prior to the 2022 war to shift significantly away from the status

quo. Some of Europe’s larger natural gas companies have major financial interests in maintaining Russian supplies and were

thus reliant on Russia. A major test for the EU in developing a more coherent energy policy could be how to balance these

views with those of member states that are highly dependent on Russian energy and are concerned by the leverage Russia

could exert on parts of Europe if no alternatives are found to alleviate at least some of that dependence.

The rise of the U.S. natural gas sector at the beginning of the 21 st century changed the course of natural gas a global fuel. The

emergence of the United States as an exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has caused significant changes to natural gas

markets. The U.S. natural gas market is one of the few that does not link its price of natural gas to oil, and this has carried

over into LNG contracts from U.S. companies. Therefore, some buyers view U.S. LNG exports as a hedge against oil prices.

Unlike oil, natural gas is not necessarily priced in U.S. dollars. Further, unlike others, U.S. exporters do not require

destination clauses. All these changes have moved natural gas toward becoming a more global commodity.

Going forward, China represents a major question mark for the natural gas industry. China is the fourth-largest natural gas

producer in the world, with its production rising since 2000. Its natural gas resource base is large, and its shale gas

endowment is estimated to be nearly double that of the United States. China’s production is less than 20% that of the United

States, and China’s consumption makes up 8% of its primary energy consumption. China is also a growing natural gas

importer, with pipelines from Central Asia, Russia, and Burma in addition to its LNG import terminals.

There are certain limitations in the use, trade, and particularly the transport and storage of natural gas. Unlike oil, which can

be easily purchased on the spot market and transported via pipeline, rail, truck, or ship, natural gas is relatively expensive in

world markets, technologically challenging to move to markets, and not as easily traded. The natural gas market is becoming

more global, especially with more LNG available and the rise of the LNG portfolio companies (companies without a specific

destination for any particular LNG cargo), but additional changes would need to happen for it to reach the same level of

market dynamism as the oil market. The ease of trading oil has contributed to oil’s greater insulation from geopolitical

tensions and other challenges. As has been seen in 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, natural gas cannot easily be

replaced nor the availability rapidly increased. More flexibility in the natural gas market would be needed in order to insulate

both consumers and producers.

Congressional Research Service

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Contents

Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 5

U.S. Natural Gas Interests ......................................................................................................... 9

Consumers: Changes Ahead? ........................................................................................................ 10

The United States: Gas Consumer, Producer, and Exporter ..................................................... 11

Europe: Declining Gas Production, Import Challenges, Rising Renewables ......................... 13

China: Potential Is the Key Word ........................................................................................... 19

India’s Natural Gas: A Small Part of Its Energy Mix .............................................................. 20

Other Regions: Contributors to a Global Market .................................................................... 22

Central and South America and the Caribbean: Relatively Isolated ................................. 23

The Middle East: Mainly a Domestic Fuel ....................................................................... 23

Other Asia: A Strong Base ................................................................................................ 23

Natural Gas Market Changes......................................................................................................... 24

Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs) ............................................................... 24

Storage: Another Key Market Component .............................................................................. 25

The Rise of the LNG Portfolio Player ..................................................................................... 26

Concluding Points ......................................................................................................................... 27

Summary of Key Points .......................................................................................................... 28

Consumption: More About Environmental Questions ............................................................ 29

Other Short and Long Term Possible Changes........................................................................ 30

Figures

Figure 1. World Primary Energy Mix, 2020 .................................................................................... 5

Figure 2. IEA Projections of Natural Gas Demand ......................................................................... 6

Figure 3. Global Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 2021 .......................................................... 7

Figure 4. Select Market Supplies and Disposition ......................................................................... 11

Figure 5. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Price ........................................................... 12

Figure 6. EU’s Natural Gas Supply and Disposition ..................................................................... 13

Figure 7. EU Natural Gas by Source ............................................................................................. 16

Figure 8. Weekly Aggregated EU and UK Pipeline Imports of Russian Natural Gas ................... 17

Figure 9. China’s Natural Gas Supply and Disposition................................................................. 19

Figure 10. India’s Natural Gas Supply and Disposition ................................................................ 21

Figure 11. 2021 Major Natural Gas Trade Movements By Pipeline and LNG ............................. 22

Figure 12. Shipping Snapshot of LNG Movements ...................................................................... 25

Figure 13. LNG Export Contracts Held by Portfolio Companies ................................................. 27

Figure 14. World Primary Energy Mix, 2040 Projection .............................................................. 28

Figure 15., World Primary Energy Mix, 2020 ............................................................................... 28

Figure A-1. Graphic Depiction of the Natural Gas Sector............................................................. 32

Congressional Research Service

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Tables

Table 1. Select Natural Gas Storage Data by Country, 2020 ......................................................... 25

Table B-1. Top Natural Gas Consuming Countries ....................................................................... 33

Appendixes

Appendix A. The Natural Gas Sector: A Depiction ....................................................................... 32

Appendix B. Top Natural Gas Consuming Countries ................................................................... 33

Contacts

Author Information........................................................................................................................ 34

Congressional Research Service

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Introduction1

The future of natural gas use in the global energy mix is uncertain and depends on many factors,

including supply, demand, prices, transportation and other costs, and government policies related

to energy and the environment. The ways in which the natural gas market is evolving will have

implications for the global energy mix over at least the next 20-30 years. New production of

natural gas is caught between a need for more supplies in the near term and a future driven by a

goal of decarbonization. This dichotomy adds volatility to the market. In considering the future of

natural gas, there are important differences between natural gas and other fuels. Natural gas has

multiple uses and a distinct set of key producers and consumers that differ from those of other

fuels. It is bought and sold in different ways with varying contract terms and conditions, and it is

viewed both positively and negatively by environmental groups, among other considerations. As

shown in Figure 1, natural gas supplied a quarter of the world’s energy in 2020, ranking third

behind oil and coal.

Figure 1. World Primary Energy Mix, 2020

Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2021, at https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/

global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf.

Notes: Primary energy comprises commercially traded fuels, including modern renewables (does not include

traditional biomass such as wood and peat) used to generate electricity.

Many base-case or business-as-usual scenarios by government agencies, academia, industry, and

other groups feature natural gas as a prominent fuel in the global energy mix over the next 20-30

years. In scenarios that restrict greenhouse gas emissions, natural gas tends to stay in the energy

mix, but at lower levels depending on the restrictions. However, the varied uses of natural gas

make it difficult to eliminate natural gas from the energy mix. This report will examine how

natural gas markets are changing for a variety of reasons, and what this may mean for the United

States both from a strategic and geopolitical perspective.

The countries of the world, for the most part, are undertaking an energy transformation to varying

degrees and in different ways, and natural gas plays a bigger or smaller role depending on how a

country attempts to achieve its goals. Certain benefits and limitations of natural gas are important

to its future use as a fuel. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its annual World Energy

Outlook (WEO), shows how projections can change under different policy assumptions (see

Figure 2). In the figure, the dotted trend line shows how historical natural gas demand may

increase according to an econometric progression. The upper line plots the 2019 WEO’s Current

Policies scenario, which projects what may happen “if the world continues along its present path

(at the time), without any additional changes in policy.”2 This provides an upper bound to the

1 For consistency and completeness, most of the data used in this report are for 2020. Not all data for 2021 have been

released across the issues covered in this report. In some instances, 2021 data have been added, in part to show the

status of the industry coming out of the effects of COVID-19.

2 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2019, November 2019, p. 23.

Congressional Research Service

5

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

natural gas industry’s trajectory without any changes in policy to curb emissions. By 2030,

natural gas consumption would increase by 22% over 2021. The projection closest to the trend

line is from the 2020 WEO Stated Policies Scenario, which “reflects all of today’s announced

policy intentions and targets, insofar as they are backed up by detailed measures for their

realization.”3 This scenario shows a 14% rise in natural gas demand between 2021 and 2030. In

2040, the two scenarios of natural gas demand differ by 11%. The 2021 WEO Stated Policies

Scenario,4 by 2040, shows an additional 9% drop in natural gas demand from the 2020 Stated

Policies case, and a 20% decline from the WEO 2019 projection.

Figure 2 shows that in all the IEA’s least climate-aggressive forecasts, natural gas demand will

be increasing in absolute terms.5 The slower rise forecast in the later scenarios is primarily a

result of an assumed greater penetration of renewable electricity, especially solar. The

assumptions include, in some cases, the anticipated results of proposed policies. Nevertheless, the

future role of natural gas depends in part on it reaching more markets, particularly as liquefied

natural gas (LNG), and providing a competitive price.

Figure 2. IEA Projections of Natural Gas Demand

2019, 2020, and 2021

Source: Cedigaz, a subscription-based natural gas analytical, information, and data institution, for historical data,

and the IEA’s 2019, 2020, and 2021 WEOs.

Notes: Natural gas demand increases in all scenarios presented on the chart. There are other IEA scenarios that

show different demands for natural gas. The trend line was provided by using Excel’s built-in program. Units =

billion cubic meters (BCM). The United States tends to report natural gas data in cubic feet. One cubic meter is

equal to 35.31 cubic feet.

3 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2020, October 2020, p. 17. “Ordinarily, the Current Policies

Scenario provides a baseline for our scenario analysis by outlining a future in which no new policies are added to those

already in place. It is difficult to imagine this ‘business-as-usual’ approach prevailing in today’s circumstances, so we

have not included the Current Policies Scenario in the overall scenario design for the WEO 2020. That said, we would

warn against taking the STEPS [Stated Policies] as a baseline or reference case. Achieving stated policies should not be

taken for granted, especially in countries and sectors where they are ambitious and far reaching” (pp. 76-77).

4 In the International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2021, October 2021, the Stated Policies Scenario

incorporates policies that have been put into place by countries as well as policy initiatives that are under development

(p. 16).

5 In addition to the Stated Policies scenario, the IEA WEO also includes more aggressive, emission-cutting scenarios—

Net Zero Emissions (NZE) and Announced Pledges Scenario (APS). In both these scenarios, natural gas use drops by

2050, but initially the APS shows a rise in natural gas consumption out to 2030.

Congressional Research Service

6

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Natural gas has some unique characteristics that make it hard to compare with other fuels. When

burned, natural gas emits fewer greenhouse gases (GHGs) than other fossil fuels; however,

methane, the main component of natural gas, is itself a potent GHG when released into the

atmosphere. Unlike most other fuel sources, natural gas is used in multiple ways: to generate

electricity; for cooking; to provide heat for homes, businesses, and industrial processes; as a

feedstock for fertilizers, plastics, and petrochemicals; as a source for natural gas liquids; and

currently as the primary source of hydrogen.

Some natural gas is produced with oil extraction, known as associated gas. If there is no local

market for the gas or transportation to a market, the associated gas will likely be flared

(combusted) or vented (released into the atmosphere), in either case essentially wasted.

In electricity generation, natural gas-fired generation is highly efficient (combined cycle), and in

single-cycle (or simple-cycle) facilities can be ramped up and down quickly.6 This allows for

managing the intermittency of renewables like solar and wind on the electric grid, which may be

vital to maintaining a stable electric grid as more electricity comes from renewables.7

Figure 3. Global Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 2021

Total Natural Gas Consumption = 4,103 BCM

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA).

Notes: Losses may include natural gas lost during transformation, consumption, transportation, and processing.

Units = billion cubic meters (BCM).

The breakdown of natural gas consumption in Figure 3 reinforces that natural gas is used in

different parts of the economy and is somewhat evenly distributed among sectors. Natural gas

demand was not affected as much as oil by the COVID-19 pandemic, in part because of its

different uses. Natural gas consumption declined in the early months of 2020 but rebounded by

year’s end in conjunction with increasing economic activity and temperature-related factors.

Although power generation is responsible for the largest share of natural gas consumption, the

rise in 2021 is attributed to industrial uses, which vary by country and may include chemical

manufacturing, metals, and agriculture, among other areas.8 Natural gas for heating rose globally,

as the winter in the northern hemisphere of 2020-2021 was cold. In the United States, less than

1% of natural gas is used for transport; the share is much higher in other countries (e.g., Iran and

Pakistan).

6 According to U.S. Energy Information Administration, a simple-cycle facility uses natural gas in a single conversion

system, such as a combustion turbine or boiler with a steam turbine, to produce electricity. In a combined-cycle system

the exhaust heat from a gas turbine is used to heat water and generate electricity from a steam turbine. U.S. Energy

Information Administration, at https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52158.

7 Currently, battery technology and other technologies are not sufficiently developed to fulfill this need.

8 International Energy Agency, Gas Market Report, Q3-2022, July 2022, p. 26, at https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/

assets/c7e74868-30fd-440c-a616-488215894356/GasMarketReport%2CQ3-2022.pdf.

Congressional Research Service

7

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

A key determinant of the future of natural gas as a global fuel is the ability to transport it at a

reasonable cost, by pipeline or LNG. (See Figure A-1 for an overview of the natural gas

development lifecycle.) Cooling natural gas to negative 260ºF to produce LNG—and maintaining

it at that temperature during a 1,000+-mile voyage on a specialized and heavily insulated ship—is

expensive. Being able to move natural gas to more markets is essential to it remaining an

important part of the global energy mix. In 2021, 19 countries exported natural gas by LNG and

44 countries were capable of importing it.9 This is augmented by the growing use of floating

storage and regasification units (FSRUs) that allow for countries to build the infrastructure to

import LNG more quickly and for a lower cost.10 For example, in the wake of Russia’s war

against Ukraine, German companies have leased five FSRUs to mitigate the uncertainty of

Russian natural gas imports. The first two facilities should be operational by the end of 2022,11

less than 10 months after the war started, compared to an onshore terminal that may take 24-36

months to construct and longer to permit. Moving natural gas by pipeline is less technically

challenging and expensive than transporting LNG, but still requires natural gas to be put under

pressure to reach markets. Europe’s attempts to supplant Russian natural gas with LNG from the

United States and elsewhere having reached existing capacity.12 To meet its short-term need for

fuel, Europe has also increased the use of coal, while aiming to increase efficiency and reduce

overall energy demand.

More generally, FSRUs have been essential in enabling more countries to import natural gas. In

addition to helping facilities to become operational faster, FSRUs are less expensive and—

because of their mobility—have allowed countries and companies without investment-grade

credit ratings to import natural gas (e.g., Bangladesh, Croatia, Ghana, and Pakistan). Historically,

LNG export projects had to have investment-grade counterparties in contracts in order to receive

financing.

As LNG trade has increased and new producers and purchasers have entered the market, trade

flows have changed. As elaborated below, the United States is a growing exporter of LNG,

sending cargos to over 40 countries since 2016.13 A fire in June 2022 at the Freeport LNG export

terminal in Texas highlights some constraints of the global LNG market. Although the fire lasted

approximately 40 minutes, the damage inflicted is expected to keep the facility offline for

months, leaving the global market in a tenuous position. Additional liquefaction capacity would

be needed to give the market enough spare capacity to avoid a significant impact on prices and

consumption in the event that a facility goes offline. By contrast, the attack against Saudi

Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing facility in 2019 only raised oil prices for a short period of time;

the oil market has spare capacity and was able to respond to dampen the effect. About a decade

ago, it was assumed that a successful attack against Abqaiq would have caused oil prices to

skyrocket, but that did not happen.

Despite natural gas’s role as a major fuel in the world economy, natural gas formations tend not to

be the focus of international exploration for hydrocarbons. Crude oil remains the focus of

9 GIIGNL, GIIGNL Annual Report 2022, Neuilly-sur-Seine, France, May 5, 2022, p. 4, at https://giignl.org/wp-content/

uploads/2022/05/GIIGNL2022_Annual_Report_May5.pdf.

10 For additional information on FSRUs, see CRS Insight IN11956, LNG Exports to Europe: What Are Floating

Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs)?, by Paul W. Parfomak and John Frittelli.

11 Daniel Stemier, “RWE, Uniper Snap Up Four FSRUs for German Government,” Energy Intelligence, May 5, 2022.

12 Benjamin Storrow and Sara Schonhardt, “First War, Then Fire: The Global LNG Outlook Is Volatile,” EnergyWire,

June 14, 2022, at https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2022/06/14/first-war-then-fire-the-global-lngoutlook-is-volatile-ew-00039304.

13 U.S. Department of Energy, LNG Monthly, Washington, DC, May 2022, at https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/

files/2022-05/LNG%20Monthly%20March%202022_0.pdf.

Congressional Research Service

8

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

international oil companies, as their name implies. In the United States, this changed somewhat

because of the advent of shale gas in the mid-2000s, but as the industry’s ability to extract oil

from tight formations advanced, the focus returned to oil. Geologic formations like the Bakken in

North Dakota and the Eagle Ford and Permian Basin in Texas produce a lot of associated natural

gas (natural gas that is produced with oil), but oil is the main focus of production. The Marcellus

shale formation in Pennsylvania is the leading natural gas formation in the United States.

U.S. Natural Gas Interests

The introduction of shale gas over a decade ago transformed the United States from a growing net

importer of natural gas to a growing net exporter. As production increased, U.S. natural gas prices

declined and consumption increased. During this time, interest in natural gas by multiple

administrations, Congress, companies, and the public grew. Companies, in particular, offered new

ways to use natural gas. Electric utilities shifted from coal- to natural gas-fired power generation

as natural gas prices fell. The transportation sector, particularly long-haul trucking, rail, and

shipping, also became an area of interest for possible conversion to natural gas.14 When oil prices

declined in 2014, interest in using natural gas for trucking and rail waned. Because of regulations

in the shipping industry to cut emissions, however, natural gas as a bunker fuel for ships

remained. Another area of growth was the export of LNG from the lower-48 states, which started

in February 2016.

The United States has the fifth-most natural gas reserves in the world and ranks first in both

natural gas production and consumption.15 In 2020, the United States exported the second-most

natural gas behind Russia, and was third for both LNG exports and exports by pipeline separately.

In 2022, the United States is poised to become the largest LNG exporter, surpassing Qatar and

Australia, and it may likely continue to expand its capacity.16 Although a net natural gas exporter,

the United States also imports natural gas, mainly from Canada by pipeline and from Trinidad and

Tobago into the Boston area (Everett Terminal) as LNG.17 Certain infrastructure constraints

within the United States make imports more efficient to meet demand in some places. In addition

to its natural gas reserves, the United States also has a massive infrastructure of natural gas

pipelines and storage facilities, which gives it the ability to move natural gas around the country

to almost everywhere it is needed.

Perhaps the biggest impact on global markets of the United States becoming an exporter

happened even before any natural gas molecules left the country. U.S. natural gas exporting

companies developed more market-oriented contract terms than companies from other countries.

Contract terms including no destination clauses, which limit where exports can go, and no link to

oil prices, helped move natural gas towards being a global commodity. Such changes also have

put the United States at the center of the natural gas world, decreasing the prominence of other

14 In these three sectors, the use of LNG, with its greater energy density, was the proposed delivery system for many of

the conversions.

15 In the oil and natural gas industry, for a resource to be counted as a reserve, there must be a 90% likelihood that the

oil and natural gas can be produced with existing technologies, under current market conditions, and be able to reach a

market.

16 Scott Disavino, “U.S. to Be World’s Biggest LNG Exporter in 2022,” Reuters, December 21, 2021, at

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-be-worlds-biggest-lng-exporter-2022-2021-12-21/.

17 U.S. law, the Merchant Marine Act of 1920 (commonly referred to as the Jones Act), restricts vessels that may carry

domestic shipments, including LNG, from one U.S. port to another, requiring that they be U.S.-built, -owned

and -crewed. Currently, there are no large, transoceanic Jones Act-qualified LNG tankers (only smaller barges designed

for refueling ships in port), and the United States has not built one in over 40 years. For more information see CRS

Report R45725, Shipping Under the Jones Act: Legislative and Regulatory Background, by John Frittelli.

Congressional Research Service

9

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

exporting countries, including Russia. The United States has been a major oil producer for

decades and regained the top spot about 10 years ago, but it does not have the same influence in

the gas sector due to constraints in the natural gas market. Consequently, a shift towards natural

gas in the U.S. energy mix may enhance U.S. energy and national security by decreasing its

dependency on other countries for other fuels. Additionally, increased use of natural gas globally

may enhance U.S. influence with certain countries as a reliable market-driven supplier.

For most observers, energy security for the United States has fundamentally concerned oil. As the

world’s largest producer and consumer of natural gas, the United States is not as concerned about

the natural gas market. However, as has been shown in 2022, natural gas plays a major

geopolitical role because of constraints in how it is bought and sold. The United States has an

opportunity to play a bigger role in the global natural gas market than in the oil market. In

addition, any shift in consumption towards natural gas from oil would likely increase the

influence of the United States in the natural gas sector, while improving U.S. energy security. The

global natural gas industry also has consumers and producers differing from those for oil, which

gives the United States an opportunity to engage the natural gas-oriented countries from a better

vantage point.

Consumers: Changes Ahead?

The comparisons in Figure 4 highlight some important changes in natural gas markets,

particularly among consuming countries. Although the focus of changes in the United States has

mostly been on the dramatic rise in production since the advent of shale gas just over a decade

ago, there have also been large increases in U.S. consumption. Figure 4 also shows the scale of

the natural gas markets in these key consuming countries and regions.

The figure focuses on countries and regions going through changes with respect to natural gas

markets. (Some major LNG importers and natural gas consumers such as Japan and South Korea

are not shown in the figure because they tend to be consistent buyers.) The EU and the United

States are going through changes, particularly related to production and environmental policies,

which affect consumption and imports of natural gas. China and India are growing LNG

importers; however, coal continues to play the biggest role in those two countries’ energy mix. In

addition to constraints imposed by domestic politics, infrastructure constraints for natural gas, and

relatively low production, China and India, as well as other potential natural gas importers, need

reasonably priced, abundant, accessible, and available natural gas resources. As noted above, a

key component to expanding natural gas markets is the use of FSRUs. As discussed further

below, FSRUs decrease the cost associated with import terminals, can be put into operation much

more quickly, and can be used either long-term or on a temporary basis.

Congressional Research Service

10

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Figure 4. Select Market Supplies and Disposition

2000-2020

Source: Cedigaz, a subscription-based natural gas analytical, information, and data institution, at

http://www.cedigaz.org.

Notes: Units = billion cubic meters (BCM).

The United States: Gas Consumer, Producer, and Exporter

The rise of the U.S. natural gas sector in the beginning of the 21st century changed the course of

natural gas as a global fuel. Prior to 2008, natural gas prices (see Figure 5) were generally

increasing and the United States was viewed as a growing natural gas importer. Multiple LNG

import terminals were built in the United States, while existing ones were recommissioned and

expanded. Additionally, export terminals were built around the world, with the United States as

the target market. However, the market conditions also drove U.S. domestic producers to

innovate. As average U.S. prices peaked in 2008, domestic shale gas production was brought to

market. Improvements in technologies such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling made

the development of unconventional natural gas resources, such as shale and other lowerpermeability rock formations economically possible. Improved efficiency lowered production

costs, making shale gas production competitive at almost any price. The large amount of natural

gas brought to market enabled large-scale exports from the United States.

As it improved, shale technology shifted from natural gas to natural gas liquids (NGLs) and to oil.

This shift in technological capabilities raised U.S. production of NGLs and crude oil to new

heights. The value of these commodities improved the economics of production and fostered

additional drilling and production of natural gas. It also expanded the production regions where

the technology could be used. The migration of shale technologies to places like the Bakken in

North Dakota, and the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford in Texas, which are primarily crude oil

formations, enabled natural gas production through associated volumes to continue to grow

despite a decline in natural gas prices. The crude oil found in these formations contain a high

percentage of dissolved natural gas. As most new U.S. crude production was from these three

areas, the percentage of associated natural gas produced in the United States began to rise.

However, when oil prices decline, production tends to slow, and in these regions then so does

natural gas production.

Congressional Research Service

11

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Figure 5. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Disposition, and Price

2000-2020

Source: Cedigaz, a subscription-based natural gas analytical, information, and data institution, at

http://www.cedigaz.org.

Notes: Prices are annual spot prices for the Henry Hub, the main natural gas pricing point for U.S. natural gas,

at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhda.htm. Spot natural gas prices change many times a day. The prices

used here are an annual average of daily prices. Thus, the range of prices may be greater than the prices shown

on this chart. Volume units = billion cubic meters (BCM) and price units = U.S. dollars per million British thermal

unit (US$/mmBtu).

As U.S. natural gas production increased and prices fell, U.S. consumption of natural gas grew

(see Figure 5). The rise in consumption did not keep pace with production, so companies turned

to exports of natural gas, first by pipeline to Mexico and then as LNG to other parts of the world.

The United States started exporting LNG from the lower-48 states in February 2016 and in 2022

is projected to become the largest LNG exporter globally.

The prospect of the entrance of the United States as an exporter of LNG caused significant

changes to global natural gas markets. The U.S. natural gas market is one of the few that does not

link its price of natural gas to oil, and this has carried over into LNG contracts from U.S.

companies. Therefore, some buyers view U.S. LNG exports as a hedge against oil prices. Unlike

oil, natural gas is not necessarily priced in U.S. dollars. U.S. exporters do not require destination

clauses, although the final destination of U.S. LNG exports must be reported to the U.S.

Department of Energy by statute. U.S. exporters have been more open to shorter-term contracts

than the traditional 25-30 year contracts. The relatively low price of U.S. natural gas has also

helped consumers in other regions negotiate better prices for imports from non-U.S. sources.

The United States has quickly risen in the export rankings and continues to add to its LNG export

capacity. According to projections by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S.

natural gas production, consumption, and exports will continue to grow for decades to come,

while U.S. prices are projected to stay relatively stable and low.18 One aspect of EIA projections,

however, is a status quo assumption when it comes to technology, laws and regulations, and

markets, among other things. As the development of shale gas has shown, significant changes to

the industry may happen quickly.

18 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2022, Washington, DC, March 2022, at

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2022_Narrative.pdf.

Congressional Research Service

12

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Europe: Declining Gas Production, Import Challenges, Rising

Renewables

As a major energy consuming region, Europe faces a number of challenges in addressing its

current and future energy needs. For the 27 member states of the European Union (EU),19

challenges include declining internal natural gas production, rapidly rising global demand and

competition for energy resources from countries such as China and India, heightened tensions

with Russia, efforts to integrate the EU’s internal energy markets, and a growing need to shift

fuels in keeping with the EU’s climate change policy goals. As a result, energy supply security

has become a key concern for the EU. European energy security is also of significant interest to

the United States.

While energy policy in the EU has long been a strongly guarded competence of individual

national governments, the EU’s role in energy policy has expanded over the last few decades. An

important element of the EU’s energy supply strategy has been to shift to a greater use of natural

gas and renewables and to move away from coal. The view toward nuclear power has varied by

member, but since Russia’s 2022 war against Ukraine more member countries have softened their

view toward nuclear power as energy supplies have been affected. In July 2022, the European

Parliament endorsed EU rules labelling investments in natural gas and nuclear power plants as

climate friendly, paving the way for the proposal to become law, which may occur by the end of

2022.20

EU natural gas consumption has increased since 2014 (see Figure 6), after declining for several

years.

Figure 6. EU’s Natural Gas Supply and Disposition

2000-2020

Source: Cedigaz, a subscription-based natural gas analytical, information, and data institution, at

http://www.cedigaz.org.

19 Current EU members are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,

France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland,

Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.

20 Kate Abnett, “EU Parliament Backs Labelling Gas and Nuclear Investments as Green,” Reuters, July 6, 2022, at

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eu-parliament-vote-green-gas-nuclear-rules-2022-07-06/, online

edition.

Congressional Research Service

13

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Notes: The data in the chart are for current EU members regardless of when they joined the EU. Since 2000,

the following countries have joined the EU: in 2004, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,

Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia; in 2007, Bulgaria and Romania; and in 2013 Croatia. The United Kingdom

left the EU in 2020 and is not included in this chart for any years. Exports and imports are a summation of

individual member states regardless of where they came from or where they went, including from within the EU.

The total exports and imports for EU member countries is greater than exports and imports into and out of the

EU as a whole because they do not include internal transfers. Units = billion cubic meters (BCM).

In 2020, natural gas made up almost 25% of the EU’s primary energy mix.21 Some observers

expect EU member states to rely increasingly on natural gas, as those states strive to meet targets

for reducing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.22 By 2035, some analysts

estimate that natural gas may make up almost 30% of the EU’s primary energy mix, depending

on market conditions, though it could decline in a “slow development scenario” where natural gas

becomes less competitive.23 However, this outcome is unlikely as it requires breakthroughs in

other forms of energy and technology.

Most natural gas that EU member states consume comes from imports from countries outside the

EU (78% of consumption in 2020).24 EU dependence on natural gas imports is expected to rise

over time, given declining natural gas production within the EU. Analysts note this decline has

been propelled in part by policy decisions, such as Germany’s decision to phase out the use of

nuclear energy (by 2022) and coal (by 2038), thus encouraging EU natural gas producers to speed

up production to offset any shortfalls; and some EU member states’ decisions to not enact

prohibitions on shale gas development.25 The main source of natural gas imports for EU members

has been Russia, which accounted for 47% (about 165 BCM) of non-EU natural gas imports in

2020 (44% of total EU natural gas consumption).26 EU member states also import natural gas

from non-EU members Norway (20%), Algeria (7%), Qatar (4%), and others.27

EU member states have limited flexibility to change natural gas suppliers or supply routes. Most

natural gas imports are transported via pipeline, unlike oil imports (90% of which arrive by sea).

In addition, typically natural gas is bought and sold via long-term contracts, whereas oil is sold

mainly on the spot market or short-term basis. The restrictions on the contracted natural gas make

it difficult for counterparties to quickly unwind from agreements.

Europe’s vulnerability to Russian natural gas imports is most acute during winter, especially

unusually cold winters, when European natural gas imports are most needed. During the winter

months, Europe needs all the natural gas imports by pipeline and LNG that it can receive. Any

volumes that are curtailed, whether from Russia or others, affect European markets. The lack of

an import cushion because of infrastructure constraints and suppliers leaves Europe vulnerable

despite its efforts to mitigate the risks.

21 Primary energy comprises commercially traded fuels, including modern renewables used to generate electricity. Oil

makes up about 38%; coal, 13%; nuclear, 11%; and renewables (including hydroelectric), 14%. BP Statistical Review

of World Energy 2019, p. 9.

22 EU Commission, “2020 Climate & Energy Package,” at https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2020_en.

23 Eurogas, Long-Term Outlook for Gas to 2035, October 2013, p. 3.

24 Based on data from Cedigaz, a subscription service statistical database, at http://www.cedigaz.org. Some of the

natural gas imported in to the EU is then re-exported to non-EU members.

25 Markus Wacket, “Germany to Phase Out Coal by 2038 in Move Away from Fossil Fuels,” Reuters, January 25,

2019.

26 Gas imports from Russia peaked in 2008 at 226 BCM. Since 2008, imports have not risen above 200 BCM. BP,

Statistical Review of World Energy 2022.

27 Cedigaz, a subscription-based natural gas analytical, information, and data institution, at http://www.cedigaz.org.

Congressional Research Service

14

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

The EU’s dependence on Russian natural gas imports has increased over time as production

within the EU declined (see Figure 6). Prior to Russia’s 2022 war on Ukraine, dependence on

Russia as a supplier was deemed likely to continue and grow. However, the war has altered

European views of Russia’s reliability as an energy supplier.28 The EU collective and many

individual member states are exploring alternative sources for their natural gas needs. The cuts in

supplies by Russia have prompted Europe to make alternative arrangements for their natural gas

needs.

In the past, Russia has sought to protect its share of the EU natural gas market. It has attempted to

stymie European-backed alternatives by proposing competing pipeline projects and attempting to

increase its influence with European companies by offering them stakes in these and other

projects. It remains unclear whether Russia’s war on Ukraine will permanently end or

significantly alter these natural gas relationships.

Successive U.S. Administrations and Congresses have viewed European energy security as a U.S.

national interest. In recent years, promoting diversification of EU natural gas supplies has been a

focal point of U.S. energy policy in Europe and Eurasia. This has also been a source of

disagreement between the United States and the EU. Some EU members took the position that the

United States was against the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, not

because of security reasons, but because the United States wanted to export more LNG. This

point of view was promoted by countries and companies, in part, that had vested interests in Nord

Stream 2, e.g., Austria’s OMV.29

Although the United States and the EU have sought to promote the import of piped natural gas

from the Caspian Sea region and LNG from the United States and other LNG producers, this is

not being achieved in volumes sufficient to fully counter Russian imports to the region. Other

regions such as North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean have potential as alternative suppliers

but are constrained in their ability to start or increase exports for varied reasons. In June 2022,

driven in part by the uncertainty of supply caused by Russia’s war against Ukraine, Egypt and

Israel agreed to a provisional deal to supply natural gas to the EU, as part of a larger agreement. 30

In July 2022, the European Commission signed a memorandum of understanding with Azerbaijan

to increase imports of Azerbaijani natural gas to at least 20 BCM per year by 2027.31 Norway has

also agreed to increase natural gas exports to the EU.

Since 2006 at least, the EU and several member states have advocated for increased European

energy supply diversification in order to mitigate the potential for cutoffs or curtailments of

Russian natural gas supplies to Europe. Most Russian natural gas exports to the EU arrive via

pipelines that pass through Ukraine and Belarus. Russian disputes with Ukraine have at least

twice resulted in significant interruptions in the flow of natural gas to some EU members (in 2006

and 2009). Of note, since Russia’s 2022 war on Ukraine, Russian natural gas supplies to Europe

have steadily decreased, but have not ceased. As of October 2022, only one member of the EU,

Hungary, is still receiving imports of Russian natural gas by pipeline.32 Additionally, some EU

28 European Commission, at https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal/repowereu-

affordable-secure-and-sustainable-energy-europe_en.

29 Meeting with Mr. Rainer Seele, the CEO of OMV, January 25, 2018.

30 James Shotter and Raya Jalabi, “EU Looks to Israel as It Battles Russian Energy ‘Blackmail,’” Financial Times, June

14, 2022, online edition, at https://www.ft.com/content/225cd02e-0764-4295-a1ed-f209c6c3fc09?desktop=true&

segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8.

31 “EU Signs Deal with Azerbaijan to Double Gas Imports by 2027,” Al Jazeera, July 18, 2022, at

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/18/eu-signs-deal-with-azerbaijan-to-double-gas-imports-by-2027.

32 ZeroHedge, “Only One EU Member Is Still Receiving Russian Natural Gas,” Oil Price.com, October 3, 2022, at

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Only-One-EU-Member-Is-Still-Receiving-Russian-Natural-Gas.html, online.

Congressional Research Service

15

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

members receive natural gas by LNG from Russia. Some member states in Central and Eastern

Europe, as shown in Figure 7, rely entirely or almost entirely on Russian imports for their natural

gas supplies and thus are especially vulnerable to such interruptions.

Figure 7. EU Natural Gas by Source

2021

Source: Based on figure from the Brussels-based research center Bruegel, which uses data from the European

Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G) and Eurostat. See Bruegel, “Preparing for the

First Winter Without Russian Gas,” February 28, 2022.

Notes: The graphic is organized by the countries that import the most natural gas from Russia to the least by

percentage. LNG = liquefied natural gas; UK = United Kingdom. LNG imports could come from many different

suppliers around the world. The EU’s interconnected gas networks make it challenging to account for both

foreign imports and foreign-originating gas traded between EU member states. Bruegel’s breakdown seeks to

account for gas flowing into the EU and subsequent trade within the EU market. Nevertheless, the figure should

be considered suggestive rather than definitive.

Since 2014, Russian aggression in Ukraine has not resulted in a complete cutoff of natural gas

supplies to the EU as a whole, but it has increased concerns about the reliability of Russia as a

supplier, particularly since February 2022. This is a key point when looking at the future of

natural gas over the next 20 or so years. Russia has the largest natural gas reserves in the world

and has extensive infrastructure to bring that gas to markets domestically and internationally,

especially to Europe.

Prior to 2022, to increase reliability, some EU member states had sought to strengthen their

energy ties to Russia by developing new supply routes for Russian gas bypassing Ukraine that

they viewed to be less vulnerable to potential cutoffs. Since 2012, an increasing share of Russian

gas imports have transited directly from Russia to Germany (and on to other European countries,

including Ukraine) via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, a joint venture between Russia and several

Congressional Research Service

16

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

European energy companies.33 On September 26, 2022, an explosion damaged both Nord Stream

1 and 2, leaving them unable to transit natural gas.34 Figure 8 shows natural gas exports to

Europe through Russia’s main export pipelines since the beginning of 2022 through October

compared with total exports to Europe from Russia in 2021.

Figure 8. Weekly Aggregated EU and UK Pipeline Imports of Russian Natural Gas

2021 and 2022

Source: Bruegel, European natural gas imports (bruegel.org).

Notes: Data for 2022 are only compiled through week 43. Units = million cubic meters (MCM). Russia’s war on

Ukraine started in week 9 on the chart.

Although several member states supported Nord Stream 2 prior to 2022, others in the EU (and the

U.S. government) have long opposed the pipeline project due to concerns about dependence on

Russian natural gas. Just prior to the war, Germany halted the approval process for Nord Stream

2, not allowing it to go into service despite being completed. Inaugurated in January 2020, the

TurkStream pipeline system sends natural gas across the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey to

supply Turkey and southeastern Europe.

At the same time, other EU members have sought to bolster energy security by diversifying the

sources of their natural gas imports. One such diversification effort involves the so-called

Southern Gas Corridor to transport natural gas to the EU from Azerbaijan and, potentially, Central

Asia via Turkey. The Trans-Anatolian natural gas pipeline (TANAP), which opened in 2018,

connects to the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which opened in 2020, to bring Azerbaijani natural

gas into Italy and onward, via Greece and Albania, with planned regional interconnectors and

spur lines to other markets. Russia’s TurkStream pipeline was the counter project to the Southern

33 In addition to Russia’s Gazprom, the Nord Stream 1 consortium includes France’s Engie, Germany’s Uniper and

Wintershall Dea, and Netherlands’ Gasunie.

34 Merlyn Thomas, “Nord Stream Blast ‘Blew Away 50 Metres of Pipe,’” BBC News, October 18, 2022, pp. at

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63297085, online.

Congressional Research Service

17

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Gas Corridor. LNG import projects in Croatia, Greece, Lithuania, Poland, and other planned

terminals have helped diversify Europe’s gas supplies.

In recent decades, the EU has sought to build an integrated internal energy market and improve

network connectivity as part of a broader agenda of facilitating cross-border gas trade, improving

consumer prices, and mitigating the impact of interruptions and overdependence on a single

supplier. In response to potential supply instability from Russia, the EU has strengthened its

internal energy regulations, diversified its suppliers and fuel mix, and invested in energy

infrastructure, including gas storage.

Energy policy also is a key component of the EU’s broader climate change agenda, as the

production and use of energy accounts for approximately 75% of the EU’s greenhouse gas

emissions.35 Under the EU’s 2015 “Energy Union” initiative, member states committed to energy

efficiency and renewable energy targets for 2020 and 2030. Additionally, the European

Commission (the EU’s executive) has proposed ambitious targets as part of the bloc’s broad

climate policy blueprint, the “European Green Deal,” which aims to achieve net-zero emissions

by 2050.36 In this context, natural gas could play a critical, but potentially temporary, role in

transitioning away from coal.

Since Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU and individual member states have sought to bolster shortterm and longer-term energy security and rapidly reduce dependency on Russia. In particular,

there has been an emphasis on decreasing natural gas use in the short term to increase supplies in

storage for the winter.37 There have also been incentives to reduce consumption and encourage

fuel switching, especially to renewables.

Despite the EU’s dependence on Russian natural gas, some analysts argue the EU is well

positioned geographically to benefit from recent changes in global natural gas developments.

Potential alternatives to Russian natural gas include increases in European production; new

exports from the Eastern Mediterranean, which includes Israel and EU member Cyprus; imports

from North Africa (primarily Algeria and Egypt) and the Caspian Sea region (Azerbaijan and

Central Asia); and LNG, including from the United States, which has been limited thus far.

Nonetheless, challenges to developing alternative sources of natural gas for Europe persist. Some

potential alternatives present complications, such as political and geopolitical obstacles,

corruption, technical limitations, environmental concerns, and financial constraints. There also

are certain limitations in the use, trade, and transport of natural gas, such as the number of LNG

tanker ships available and the shipyards to build them.

Russian involvement in the European energy sector goes beyond its role as an energy supplier.

Russian energy companies and their subsidiaries have significant ownership stakes in European

energy infrastructure, including pipelines, distribution, and storage facilities.38 Russian-owned

natural gas storage in Germany contributed to the run-up in European natural gas prices in winter

2021 because the Russian-owned facilities did not refill for the winter, which some analysts

35 European Commission, The European Green Deal: Clean Energy, December 2019, at https://ec.europa.eu/

commission/presscorner/detail/en/fs_19_6723.

36 European Commission, December 2019.

37 European Commission, Save Gas for a Safe Winter: Commission Proposes Gas Demand Reduction Plan to Prepare

EI for Supply Cuts, July 20, 2022, at https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_4608.

38 See, for example, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, European Natural Gas Infrastructure: The Role of

Gazprom in European Natural Gas Supplies, Spring 2014.

Congressional Research Service

18

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

believe was for geopolitical reasons.39 Germany, since the war began, has essentially nationalized

the storage facilities.40

China: Potential Is the Key Word

When it comes to global supply and demand for natural gas, China is the main wildcard. China is

the fourth-largest natural gas producer in the world, with its production rising every year and

increasing almost seven-fold from 2000 to 2020 (see Figure 9). Its natural gas resource base is

large, and its shale gas endowment is estimated to be nearly double that of the United States.41

China’s production is currently less than 20% of U.S. natural gas production, partly due to its

geology, regulatory regime, and a lack of technical skills, all of which make it difficult to bring

natural gas to market, among other issues. Natural gas, 8% of China’s primary energy, is dwarfed

by coal as a primary energy source. China is the largest producer and consumer of coal in the

world, producing eight times and consuming nine times as much as the United States. The

interests of the coal industry play a significant role in Chinese energy policy at the national,

provincial, and local levels of government. That said, China’s natural gas consumption has

increased every year at least since 2000.

Figure 9. China’s Natural Gas Supply and Disposition

2000-2020

Source: Cedigaz, a subscription-based natural gas analytical, information, and data institution, at

http://www.cedigaz.org.

Notes: Units = billion cubic meters (BCM).

In 2020, China ranked second in global LNG imports behind Japan, and initial data show China

surpassed Japan in 2021. China ranked fifth for pipeline imports. Central Asia, especially

Turkmenistan, is China’s main source of pipeline imports of natural gas. However, in 2019,

39 David Sheppard, Mehreen Khan, and Guy Chazan, “Gazprom’s Low Gas Storage Levels Fuel Questions over

Russia’s Supply to Europe,” Financial Times, October 27, 2021, at https://www.ft.com/content/576a96f7-e41d-4068a61b-f74f2b2d3b81, online.

40 Nikolaus J. Kurmayer, “Berlin Inches Closer to Expropriating Gazprom Assets,” Euractiv, May 12, 2022, at

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/berlin-inches-closer-to-expropriating-gazprom-assets/, online.

41 Energy Information Administration, “World Shale Resource Assessments,” September 24, 2015, at

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas.

Congressional Research Service

19

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Gazprom, Russia’s national natural gas company, opened a pipeline (known as the Power of

Siberia) to China.42 Early in 2022, a second natural gas pipeline was announced between the two

countries. By 2026, China is projected to be the single largest importer of Russian natural gas,

importing by both pipeline and LNG. China has built a large amount of LNG import capacity to

add to its import pipelines. China’s growing import dependency may prompt it to increase

domestic production in a more concerted way. With major LNG export projects in Australia,

Qatar, and the United States coming online by the end of the decade, China may be in a good

position to take advantage of a potential oversupply of natural gas. If China can ramp up its

natural gas production, especially its unconventional resources, foreign export projects targeting

China’s natural gas market may face a dilemma similar to that faced by those import projects

constructed to supply the U.S. market prior to the advent of shale gas—displacement by domestic

supplies. From an energy security and market perspective, additional natural gas resources

provided by China would add positively to both. However, if China becomes a dominant

producer, for which it has the resources but perhaps not the political will in the timeframe of this

report, it may act aggressively with its resources, as has been seen with rare earth metals.

India’s Natural Gas: A Small Part of Its Energy Mix

As India’s economy grows, its energy needs, including for natural gas, will likely grow as well.

India’s economy is projected to account for about 15% of world GDP by 2050, up from about

10% in 2022.43 Its population is expected to surpass China’s as the world’s largest by 2027,

creating greater demand for energy.44 In 2020, India accounted for 5.7% of global primary energy

consumption, while China was the largest consumer with 26.1%.45 Overall, India imports almost

three-quarters of its energy needs, making it highly dependent on other countries. The

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) believes India was the

fastest-growing economy from 2014 to 2019, with a projected growth rate of almost 8%.46 By

2050, India has the potential to overtake the United States as the world’s second-largest economy

in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP).47

42 For additional information on the Power of Siberia, see CRS In Focus IF11514, Power of Siberia: A Natural Gas

Pipeline Brings Russia and China Closer, by Michael Ratner and Heather L. Greenley. After many years of

negotiations between Russia and China for the Power of Siberia, an agreement was reached shortly after Russia’s

invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

43 John Hawksworth, Hannah Audino, and Rob Dlarry, The Long View: How Will the Global Economic Order Change

by 2050?, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, February 2017, p. 20, at https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-theworld-in-2050-full-report-feb-2017.pdf.

44 United Nations: Population, China and India: Most Populous Countries, at https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/

population.

45 BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2021, p. 10, at https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/

global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf.

46 Isabelle Joumard and Christine de La Maisonneuve, OECD Economic Surveys: India, Organization for Economic

Cooperation and Development (OECD), December 2019, p. 16, at https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecdeconomic-surveys-india-2019_554c1c22-en.

47 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, The World in 2050, February 2015, p. 2, at http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/theeconomy/assets/world-in-2050-february-2015.pdf. Purchasing power parity (PPP) is an economic measure of a

country’s productivity and standard of living.

Congressional Research Service

20

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Figure 10. India’s Natural Gas Supply and Disposition

2000-2020

Source: Cedigaz, a subscription-based natural gas analytical, information, and data institution, at

http://www.cedigaz.org.

Notes: Units = billion cubic meters (BCM).

Natural gas makes up 7% of India’s total energy consumption, well behind coal and oil. Natural

gas has held steady at around 7% of India’s overall energy consumption, which has been rising

over the last decade. With an eye on increasing the natural gas percentage, India instituted a

number of policy initiatives related to natural gas production48 and major infrastructure

investments such as expanding domestic gas pipelines and LNG import terminals. If global

natural gas prices return to relatively low levels, natural gas as a share of total energy

consumption in India may likely grow in the coming decade. However, these changes require

significant investment and commitment from the Indian government to reach fruition.

India’s natural gas demand is expected to continue growing and the government has stated its

goal of natural gas being 15% of the energy mix by 2030 (see Figure 10 above).49 India is

continuing to build its energy infrastructure for natural gas, which had previously been almost

exclusively configured for coal and oil. India’s natural gas consumption has increased annually

since dipping to a low in 2015.50 In 2020, Indian consumption has almost returned to its peak of

just over 60 BCM in 2010. Despite the modest rise in demand over the last few years, downward

pressure on consumption is, in part, due to a steady decline in domestic production, reaching a

decade low of under 24 BCM in 2020.51 The Government of India (GoI) has indicated it will

change this in the short term, but the GoI’s commitment and resources necessary for these

changes are uncertain.

48 Government of India, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources, Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, June 8,

2022, at http://dghindia.gov.in/.

49 International Energy Agency, India Energy Outlook 2021, February 2021, p. 37, at https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/

assets/1de6d91e-e23f-4e02-b1fb-51fdd6283b22/India_Energy_Outlook_2021.pdf.

50 BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2021, p. 38, at https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/

global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf.

51 BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2021, p. 36, at https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/

global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf.

Congressional Research Service

21

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

In 2020, Indian energy use was dominated by coal, which accounted for 55% of total primary

energy consumption. This was followed by oil at 28%. In contrast, as mentioned above, natural

gas accounted for 7% of India’s energy consumption. The GoI expected consumption of natural

gas to grow from 71 BCM in 2011-2012 to 170 BCM in 2016-2017.52 Instead, India consumed

just under 60 BCM in 2020. One likely explanation is the lack of growth in adequate

infrastructure; the proliferation and integration of compressed natural gas into urban areas has not

occurred as quickly as anticipated, and domestic production has declined significantly from 2010

to 2020, falling almost 50% in the time period.53

Other Regions: Contributors to a Global Market

Although natural gas has been a global fuel for decades, its use is limited because of the expense

and complexity of building LNG export and import terminals, in the absence of pipeline capacity.

Additionally, LNG tanker ships are also expensive. As market dynamics have changed, including

the entrance of the United States as a supplier and a more market-oriented perspective of U.S.

companies, more countries have been able to start importing LNG. The role of the floating

storage and regasification units has been essential to the expansion of natural gas globally. In

particular, FSRUs have made it possible for economically challenged countries to import LNG,

expanding the global market.

Figure 11. 2021 Major Natural Gas Trade Movements By Pipeline and LNG

1221 BCM Imported and Exported

Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2022, p. 37.

52 Government of India, Economic Sectors, Planning Commission, Twelfth Five Year Plan 2012-17, New Delhi, 2012,

p. 176, at http://planningcommission.gov.in/plans/planrel/12thplan/pdf/12fyp_vol2.pdf.

53 BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2021, p. 36, at https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/

global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2021-full-report.pdf.

Congressional Research Service

22

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Notes: CIS = Commonwealth of Independent States, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan,

Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The dot for Qatar LNG exports is misplaced and

appears to be in Oman.

In 2000, LNG played a relatively small role in natural gas trade. The majority of imports/exports

were pipeline gas coming to the United States from Canada and leaving Russia for Europe. In

2000, the Middle East was a relatively small exporter of LNG, supporting the view that most of

its natural gas production was being consumed domestically or regionally. Natural gas trade

between 2000 and 2021 increased, particularly for LNG. Trade in LNG jumped two-and-a-half

times during this time period. A key factor that enabled this increase was the rise in the number of

LNG tankers, which rose from 75 ships in 2000 to about 700 ships in 2021. Figure 11 above

shows the current state of global trade of natural gas.

Central and South America and the Caribbean: Relatively Isolated

Central and South America constitutes the smallest natural gas market in the world, for both

pipeline and LNG imports, of those countries that import natural gas. Brazil is the largest

importer of natural gas in the region and the second largest consumer behind Argentina, which is

the largest producer in the region. Bolivia is the main exporter within the region, while the United

States is the largest exporter from outside of the region. Venezuela is the largest natural gas

reserve holder, but because of sanctions and other sectoral issues has never developed its natural

gas resources to their fullest extent. Natural gas ranks third, behind oil and hydropower, in the

region’s primary energy consumption. Seven countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,

Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Panama—and Puerto Rico have LNG import capability. There

is potential for the region to use more natural gas and for it to play a bigger role in the global

market.

The Middle East: Mainly a Domestic Fuel

The Middle East is a major hydrocarbon center—with approximately 40% of the world’s total

natural gas reserves—but natural gas is primarily a regional commodity in the Middle East.

Despite the large reserves, the Middle East produces less than 20% of the world’s natural gas, and

over 80% of its production is consumed within the region. The majority of imports into the region

are by pipeline from other Middle East countries, with Qatar being the largest exporter by

pipeline. LNG imports into the region are relatively small as Qatar is the supplier of about a third

of the imports to its neighbors with the rest coming from elsewhere. Non-regional suppliers

include Nigeria, Israel, Egypt, and the United States, among others. Iran and Saudi Arabia are the

two largest consumers of natural gas in the region, in part because of government policies, with

both countries being the source of almost all of their own supply. Iran has imported small

amounts of natural gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, while Saudi Arabia consumes all of its

production within the Kingdom.

Other Asia: A Strong Base

Japan and South Korea’s role in the global natural gas market, particularly in terms of LNG

imports, is significant: they had been the number one and two importers of LNG until China

surpassed them in 2021. Both countries are resource poor and import almost all their energy

resources, in contrast to China, which has a large endowment of energy resources, including

natural gas. Additionally, post-Fukushima, Japan increased its LNG imports and the use of natural

gas, as its nuclear fleet was shut down. As Japan restarts its nuclear energy facilities, its use and

imports of natural gas are likely to decline. Taiwan is also a major importer of LNG. The region

as a whole is the largest for LNG imports, some of which come from other parts of Asia,

Congressional Research Service

23

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

particularly Australia and Malaysia, the Middle East (especially Qatar), and Africa, among other

places, including the United States. It is likely that Asia will remain the largest market for LNG

over the next 25 years or so. Given China’s imports of LNG, the country may seek a bigger role

in protecting sea lanes where its imports transit.

Natural Gas Market Changes

Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs)

As discussed above, the role of the FSRU is essential to the development of LNG markets in the

near term. FSRUs are specialized ships that allow for the import of natural gas, but their impact

on the market has been even broader. FSRUs require some onshore infrastructure, usually at the

port, but not nearly as much as a traditional onshore receiving terminal. Therefore, they are

quicker and cheaper to install, which has led to greater imports and exports of LNG. The lower

costs have also enabled countries with less than the highest credit ratings (e.g., Bangladesh,

Pakistan, and Ghana) to import LNG. Traditionally, LNG export terminals were able to obtain

financing once offtake contracts were signed with companies that had the highest credit ratings,

like Japanese and South Korean utilities. This limited the import of LNG by certain countries.

FSRUs helped change this aspect of the market. Continued use of FSRUs and expansion of the

number of ships are important factors to the future use of natural gas. As of 2021, there were

almost 50 FSRUs.54 Most of the FSRUs were built or converted since 2010, primarily by Asian

shipyards, especially in South Korea. The ships are deployed globally and may change markets

based on conditions.

Figure 12 shows a snapshot of where LNG tankers were on May 18, 2022. The map also shows

areas with significant LNG tanker congestion, some of which overlap with traditional choke

points for oil shipping, like the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal. Note the South China Sea and

how many tankers are coming to and from China, Japan, and South Korea, the three largest LNG

importing countries in the world. For Japan in particular, having LNG come from the north from

Russia could provide a certain amount of supply security vis-a-vis China. Additionally, as more

ships come into service these natural gas choke points are likely to get more congested.

54 International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers (GIIGNL), GIIGNL Annual Report 2022, Paris, France, May

5, 2022, p. 20, at https://giignl.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GIIGNL2022_Annual_Report_May24.pdf.

Congressional Research Service

24

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Figure 12. Shipping Snapshot of LNG Movements

Shipping date May 18, 2022

Source: Bloomberg and Energy Intelligence.

Notes: LNG flows through a particular area are estimates based on annual trade data from BP’s Statistical Review

of World Energy, 2022.

Storage: Another Key Market Component

Storage is an essential element for natural gas to become more of a global commodity. The main

purpose of natural gas storage is to balance supply and demand in the market. During the winter

months when natural gas consumption tends to peak, companies may not be able to import all the

natural gas needed to meet demand and must draw from storage. This, for example, is part of the

problem Europe faces. During the winter months, especially when temperatures are below

average, Europe must use all of its production, imports of LNG and pipeline natural gas, and gas

in storage. If one of these resources fails, Europe faces high prices from shortages, with

potentially tragic consequences. Russia usually chooses this time of year to reduce natural gas

supplies because Europe has not had an alternative. Although Europe has combined storage

capacity nearly rivaling the United States and Russia (see Table 1), some of that capacity is

owned by Russian companies, and it is not enough to offset the imports it receives from Russia.

Additionally, European storage facilities are not necessarily placed evenly or strategically to

maximize their effectiveness. Europe needs more interconnected natural gas infrastructure to

most efficiently use the natural gas it has.

Table 1. Select Natural Gas Storage Data by Country, 2020

Country

Working Gas

Capacity (BCM)

% World

Consumption

(BCM)

WGC as % of

Consumption

United States

135

27

878

15

Russia

120

24

423

28

China

37

7

322

12

Ukraine

31

6

36

87

Congressional Research Service

25

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Working Gas

Capacity (BCM)

% World

Canada

28

6

114

25

Germanya

24

5

85

28

Italya

20

4

69

29

Netherlandsa

13

3

38

34

Francea

12

2

40

29

Turkey

10

2

47

21

Other

79

16

1,803

4

TOTAL

510

100

3,855

13

109

21

431

25

Country

Europe

Consumption

(BCM)

WGC as % of

Consumption

Source: Cedigaz, a subscription-based natural gas analytical, information, and data institution, at

http://www.cedigaz.org. The data in this table come from Cedigaz’s underground natural gas storage database. It

does not include above-ground storage or floating storage on LNG tankers.

Notes: The data included in this table are for storage facilities that are in operation or under construction.

Working gas is the amount of natural gas in a storage facility that may be sold without degrading the facility’s

ability to function. A certain amount of natural gas must stay in the facility in order to maintain pressure and for

other reasons. This is known as base gas. Europe includes members of the EU as well as non-members in the

region. Europe does not include Turkey. Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding. WGC =

working gas capacity. Units = billion cubic meters (BCM).

a. Included as part of Europe.

Globally, natural gas in storage can meet 13% of the world’s consumption. This is not enough to

offset unexpected shortages of natural gas in the market. The United States has the most working

gas capacity (WGC), natural gas that can be cycled in and out of storage, of any nation; it

represents 15% of the country’s consumption.55 The United States also has a vast natural gas

pipeline network, enabling companies to move gas to meet local demand.

Besides underground storage facilities, some natural gas is kept in above-ground facilities,

particularly at LNG import terminals, and on ships (also known as floating storage). Aboveground storage is expensive, especially for gas left in liquid form. As shown in the previous

section, there are a limited number of LNG tankers in the world, and using them for storage rather

than to deliver natural gas may increase their cost. Additional underground storage is under

construction around the world, representing about 10% of current global capacity, but it requires

specific geological conditions and not every place is capable of storing natural gas.

The Rise of the LNG Portfolio Player

As more natural gas exports are controlled by companies without a specific destination for any

particular LNG cargo, market efficiency may be increased. (See Appendix B for a list of the top

natural gas companies.) This may also foster increased use of financial tools to mitigate the risks

involved in trading LNG. As shown in Figure 13, growing volumes of natural gas are part of

contracts where at least one of the counterparts is a portfolio company, which is a company that is

buying and/or selling natural gas without a defined supplier or consumer. The database used to

create the chart shows that 2024 is expected to be the peak year for portfolio-related contracts.

55 For natural gas storage facilities to operate, they require base gas, which is the amount that must remain in storage

for the facility to operate. Working gas is the amount of natural gas that can be held in storage, but can be cycled out of

the facility and then reinjected.

Congressional Research Service

26

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

However, as more contracts are signed, the peak may be pushed out. Going forward, it is likely

that more contracts will include a portfolio counterpart. The rise in portfolio companies does not

mean that the stability of the natural gas market will increase or decrease. It also does not mean

that volatility of natural gas prices will increase or decrease, but it may provide greater flexibility

and resiliency.

Figure 13. LNG Export Contracts Held by Portfolio Companies

Source: Cedigaz, a subscription-based natural gas analytical, information, and data institution, at

http://www.cedigaz.org.

Notes: A portfolio company enters into LNG contracts with other buyers and sellers in order to gain additional

profits by arbitraging the most efficient positions in its portfolio. There is no predetermined destination for the

LNG at the time the contract is signed, as is the case with traditional LNG contracts. The flexibility of the

portfolio company is essential for the market to operate at a higher level of efficiency based on what markets are

paying the highest price. For this chart, the data used require that either the buyer or the seller was deemed a

portfolio company. As can be seen, some contracts started before the time period expressed on the chart.

Additionally, some earlier contracts went beyond the time period of the chart. The Cedigaz database used for

this chart should not be considered complete, nor exhaustive. Units = billion cubic meters (BCM).

Concluding Points

There are certain limitations in the use, trade, and particularly the transport and storage of natural

gas. Unlike oil, which can be easily purchased on the spot market and transported via pipeline,

rail, truck, or ship, natural gas is relatively expensive in world markets, technologically

challenging to move to markets, and not as easily traded. The natural gas market is becoming

more global, especially with more LNG available, the use of FSRUs, and the rise of the LNG

portfolio companies, but additional changes need to happen for it to reach the same level of

market dynamism as the oil market. The ease of trading oil has contributed to its greater

insulation from geopolitical tensions and other challenges. As has been seen in 2022 with the

Russian invasion of Ukraine, natural gas cannot easily be replaced nor the supply rapidly

increased. More flexibility in the natural gas market would be needed in order to insulate both

consumers and producers.

Natural gas, particularly since the advent of U.S. unconventional shale gas, has been seen by

some as a bridge fuel between the use of hydrocarbons and renewables. After more than 10 years

of shale gas, natural gas is still being viewed as a bridge fuel to a lower carbon world by some,

Congressional Research Service

27

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

but as a required fuel by others, as the EU demonstrated by declaring natural gas and nuclear as

sustainable fuels.

Figure 14 shows a projected scenario in which natural gas as a primary energy fuel does not

change its market share, but oil and especially coal lose market share to renewables. This

projection is based on the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario, which “reflects all of today’s

announced policy intentions and targets, insofar as they are backed up by detailed measures for

their realization.”56

Figure 14. World Primary Energy Mix, 2040 Projection

Source: IEA’s World Energy Outlook.

Figure 15., World Primary Energy Mix, 2020

Summary of Key Points

The United States is the largest producer and consumer of natural gas, and

approaching the top spot for exports.

Uses of natural gas vary—electricity generation (including as a fill-in for

renewables), hydrogen generation, industrial processes, and residential and

commercial heating—allowing for fuel substitution in certain cases, but not all.

Natural gas is expensive to transport, adding to its cost to consume.

If natural gas is to grow, more natural gas storage would be needed throughout

the world, especially close to natural gas consuming areas.

Oil, not natural gas, tends to be the focus of exploration and production activities,

which constrains the growth of natural gas.

There is an important role for natural gas and oil companies in the energy

transition. These companies have a vested interest in the continued use of fossil

fuels, but are also transitioning their companies for the future. These companies

56 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2020, October 2020, p. 17. “Ordinarily, the Current Policies

Scenario provides a baseline for our scenario analysis by outlining a future in which no new policies are added to those

already in place. It is difficult to imagine this ‘business-as-usual’ approach prevailing in today’s circumstances, so we

have not included the Current Policies Scenario in the overall scenario design for the WEO 2020. That said, we would

warn against taking the STEPS [Stated Policies] as a baseline or reference case. Achieving stated policies should not be

taken for granted, especially in countries and sectors where they are ambitious and far reaching” (pp.76-77).

Congressional Research Service

28

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

have the financial resources and engineering prowess to contribute to energy

transition regardless of which fuels make up the future energy mix.

The natural gas market is shifting to be more like oil, including contract terms,

pricing mechanisms, and buyers and sellers.

FSRUs are essential to expand the global reach of natural gas. The lower cost and

temporary nature of FSRUs will increase worldwide natural gas consumption in

the medium term, particularly as countries try to balance hydrocarbon use and

climate change goals.

More LNG tankers and import terminals would be needed to expand the global

natural gas market to more countries.

Investments in LNG export projects and other natural gas infrastructure that are

commissioned today will likely still be in service in 2050, essentially locking in

the use of natural gas in certain places.

Additional infrastructure would be needed to increase consumption of natural

gas, especially in new markets.

Consumption: More About Environmental Questions

Environmental regulations. Many projections of energy use assume a

tightening of environmental regulations making the world use less hydrocarbons,

including natural gas. However, the necessary regulations to curb emissions from

fossil fuels, including natural gas, have not materialized, so far, to the extent

needed to curb global emissions significantly.

Brazil, China, India consumption. There is potential for a large increase in the

consumption of natural gas by all three countries. Additionally, all three countries

are significant emitters of carbon dioxide and natural gas is a small part of their

energy mix. To meet the three countries’ stated climate change goals, natural gas

is likely to grow in their energy mix. Without natural gas, it is unlikely that these

countries will meet their environmental targets. If they do not meet their climate

change goals, it is unlikely that IEA’s 2021 projections for natural gas demand

(see Figure 2) will be met.

Fragmented markets. Although the interconnections of natural gas markets are

growing, their fragmented nature and the use of mainly pipelines for transport

allows Russia to have more leverage in Europe. This situation is also exacerbated

by the disparate energy markets within Europe. Russia’s war against Ukraine has

brought Europe together in a way it has not been before. With natural gas as a

recognized key component of the discussion, Europe may be able to unite and

permanently overcome Russia’s control in this area.

Changes to the climate. As changes to the climate occur there will be direct and

indirect consequences for natural gas use. For example, if there are droughts in

areas where hydroelectric power is prevalent (e.g., Brazil), more natural gas may

be required to meet the shortfall. Droughts would also affect areas where fracking

is used to produce natural gas. Certain parts of the world may require more

natural gas to offset declines in other resources, while some producers may have

to curtail natural gas production. Other countries, if capable, may increase

production to meet the shortfall. At the same time, uncontrolled emissions of

methane (e.g., venting of wells, pipeline leaks) present a significant contribution

to global greenhouse gas emissions.

Congressional Research Service

29

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Consumption goes up before going down. It is difficult to predict developments

25 years into the future. However, even in scenarios that show natural gas use

declining in that time period, it is likely that consumption of natural gas will

increase before it decreases. A shift to alternatives would likely require a rise in

conventional fuels to meet the increase in resource demand in the near term.

Additionally, overall energy consumption is likely to rise, especially as the world

electrifies more sectors.

Other Short and Long Term Possible Changes

Technical advances and substitution. As the development of shale gas has

shown, there may still be game-changing breakthroughs to be found and they

could move quickly. Additionally, natural gas has multiple uses and faces

substitution in certain segments, which may decrease natural gas use in those

segments in the future, should they come to fruition. For example, battery storage

and fusion would both affect natural gas use in electricity generation.

Improvements in the productivity of solar panels and wind turbines would also

limit natural gas use. Increased weatherization and efficiency standards for

buildings would curb the use of natural gas for home and commercial heating.

Industrial consumption of natural gas for creating some chemicals and for use in

oil refineries may not have immediate substitutes.

Prices. As natural gas becomes more of a global commodity, prices will be

driven more by market conditions—supply and demand—than contracted terms.

This may add to the volatility of natural gas prices. As has been seen in 2022, as

natural gas prices have risen to new heights in some regions, countries in those

regions have quickly switched to other fuels, including coal.

Portfolio players. As the natural gas market becomes more dynamic, the role of

the portfolio player will likely become more important. The goal of some

companies to maximize their portfolio of LNG import and export capacities by

arbitraging market prices is a key factor in globalizing the natural gas market. By

not being constrained by contract obligations, these companies are able to

allocate their LNG resources in a market-efficient way. Leading the way in this

area are international oil companies (e.g., Royal Dutch Shell, TotalEnergies,

ExxonMobil, BP). These companies may likely try to expand the number of

markets for LNG, which will lead to natural gas being a part of the global fuel

mix in 2050.

Energy security. The traditional definition of energy security essentially says

that a fuel must be available, abundant, and reasonably priced. However, there is

another dimension of energy security that has been borne out by Russia’s war

against Ukraine, which is that one’s allies’ energy security is part of domestic

energy security. Although the United States is essentially natural gas

independent, most U.S. allies are not. The current global situation for natural gas,

especially prices, has put tremendous economic pressure on almost all

governments. Europe, in particular, is paying the highest prices for natural gas,

and has the ability to pay the higher prices. The higher prices in Europe are

pulling cargos away from other countries, including U.S. allies, which pits U.S.

allies against each other. Additionally, many poor countries are having their

cargos redirected to other countries, which may lead to unrest in the poorer

countries. These poorer countries tend to have larger populations and the lack of

Congressional Research Service

30

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

energy may cause greater dislocations of people. The lack of energy may also

cause economic decline as businesses that use natural gas may not be able to find

viable alternatives.

Tankers. More LNG tankers would be needed, especially in the short term, to

meet growing demand for exports. An increase in tanker demand may initiate

greater use of Chinese shipyards to produce the ships.

Russia/China natural gas relations. Relations will likely grow closer as Europe

shuns Russian natural gas exports. China’s appetite for natural gas is likely to

grow during the time period, and Russia presents a large resource. Tying these

two countries together poses numerous strategic concerns.

Public Perception. A single event, similar to Fukushima for nuclear power, may

possibly disrupt the future of natural gas. Some conflagration at an import or

export terminal or on a tanker that causes significant injury, loss of life, or

environmental damage, could turn the public against the industry. In the United

States, the use of hydraulic fracturing and perceived threats to ground water gave

the industry pause when it came to the social license to operate. Additionally,

there is already a move to ban the use of natural gas by some cities, mainly in

Europe and the United States, because it is a fossil fuel.

Congressional Research Service

31

Appendix A. The Natural Gas Sector: A Depiction

Figure A-1. Graphic Depiction of the Natural Gas Sector

Source: American Petroleum Institute (API), Oil and Natural Gas Industry Preparedness Handbook, October 2013.

CRS-32

Appendix B. Top Natural Gas Consuming Countries

Table B-1. Top Natural Gas Consuming Countries

2020 Volume

(BCM)

% World

2010 Volume

(BCM)

% World

2000 Volume

(BCM)

% World

United States

878

23

677

21

645

26

Russia

423

11

433

14

370

15

China

322

8

109

3

27

1

Iran

226

6

145

5

63

3

Canada

114

3

82

3

83

3

Japan

101

3

97

3

75

3

Saudi Arabia

93

2

60

2

50

2

Germany

85

2

91

3

92

4

Mexico

82

2

62

2

38

2

UAE

72

2

61

2

30

1

ROW

1,458

38

1,292

41

818

34

Country

Source: Cedigaz, a subscription-based natural gas analytical, information, and data institution, at http://www.cedigaz.org.

Notes: Table includes the top 10 natural gas consuming countries as of 2020. These countries may not have been in the top 10 in 2010 or 2000. ROW = Rest of World.

BCM = billion cubic meters (BCM).

CRS-33

Natural Gas Markets Going Global: Changes in Consumption

Author Information

Michael Ratner

Specialist in Energy Policy

Disclaimer

This document was prepared by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). CRS serves as nonpartisan

shared staff to congressional committees and Members of Congress. It operates solely at the behest of and

under the direction of Congress. Information in a CRS Report should not be relied upon for purposes other

than public understanding of information that has been provided by CRS to Members of Congress in

connection with CRS’s institutional role. CRS Reports, as a work of the United States Government, are not

subject to copyright protection in the United States. Any CRS Report may be reproduced and distributed in

its entirety without permission from CRS. However, as a CRS Report may include copyrighted images or

material from a third party, you may need to obtain the permission of the copyright holder if you wish to

copy or otherwise use copyrighted material.

Congressional Research Service

R47317 · VERSION 2 · NEW

34

This is a copy of a public record, reproduced as it was published. It is not legal advice, and it may not be the version a court would rely on. Check the official source before you cite it.

A word about cookies

We need a few to keep you signed in and the library working. The rest help us see which pages people use and where they get stuck. They stay off unless you say yes.