Federal Air Quality and Wildfire Smoke Forecasting

Federal Air Quality and Wildfire Smoke Forecasting

August 14, 2026

Numerous communities across the United States have expressed

concern about health risks from wildfire smoke in light of

regional and national-scale smoke events. Some Members of

Congress have expressed interest in improving smoke forecasting

to aid in preparation for and response to smoke events. This In

Focus provides background on wildfire smoke, federal air quality

standards, federal wildfire smoke observations, forecasting, and

communications, and considerations for Congress.

Background

Wildfire smoke is a mixture of gases and fine particles that

temporarily degrades air quality over long distances—potentially

thousands of miles—and may harm human health. The U.S.

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identifies wildfires as a

major contributor of fine particle air pollution (particles less than

2.5 microns or “PM2.5”) and other air pollution, though

quantifying the precise contribution of wildfires to air pollution

remains an active area of research. Other air pollution sources

include prescribed burning, emissions from power plants,

automobiles, and industrial sources. Fine particles may

contribute to a range of health effects, across multiple systems in

the body (e.g., respiratory, cardiovascular).

Nationwide, air pollution from fine particles has declined by 46%

from 2000 to 2024. However, recent transboundary pollution

from Canadian wildfires is driving a surge in U.S. air pollution.

Federal Air Quality Requirements

Congress has directed several federal agencies to take on various

roles related to air quality and wildfire smoke. The Clean Air Act

(CAA) requires EPA to establish minimum national standards for

ambient air quality. Under this authority, EPA has set and

periodically revised national ambient air quality standards

(NAAQS) for six “criteria” air pollutants, such as fine particles

found in wildfire smoke. Under the CAA, states have primary

responsibility for assuring compliance with NAAQS and for

establishing implementation plans intended to meet these

standards. Some states establish prescribed fire smoke

management plans to minimize smoke entering populated areas,

prevent public safety hazards, and maintain CAA compliance.

EPA uses data from a network of air quality monitoring stations

(described under “Observations”), in combination with modeling

analyses, to inform determinations about NAAQS compliance.

CAA allows EPA to exclude air quality data from regulatory

decisions if air quality is demonstratively influenced by

“exceptional events,” such as wildfires.

Federal Wildfire Smoke Forecasting

Congress has provided various federal agencies with

responsibilities related to wildfire smoke monitoring, forecasting,

communication, and research.

Observations

The need for real-time air quality information is critical during

wildfires. EPA’s network of air quality monitoring stations

collects measurements of ambient air concentrations of pollutants

at thousands of monitoring sites, mostly owned and operated by

state, local, and tribal agencies. Nearly 1,500 of those sites

collect information on fine particles, among other pollutants

associated with smoke. The U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and EPA

also loan smoke and fine particle monitoring kits upon request.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

collect fire and smoke activity information across North

America, Hawaii, and the Caribbean from multiple satellite

systems.

Forecasting

EPA and NOAA work on air quality forecasting together under a

Memorandum of Agreement and the National Air Quality

Forecast Capability program. Under this interagency agreement

and program, EPA delivers real-time ambient air quality

observations to NOAA. NOAA then utilizes modeling and

prediction techniques to generate daily, nationwide air quality

forecast guidance (baseline forecast maps), including for fine

particles and smoke. States use NOAA’s forecast guidance to

create their own local air quality forecasts and warnings.

Nationwide and local forecasts generally are available for the

next one to three days.

Communication

State and local environmental agencies distribute their air quality

forecasts widely through federal and nonfederal means. For

example, EPA manages AirNow, a federal multiagency effort

that reports current and forecasted air quality based on available

federal and nonfederal observations. EPA’s AirNow reports air

quality information using an “Air Quality Index” (AQI) index,

ranging from 0-500. EPA calculates the AQI for a criteria air

pollutant based on the ambient concentration of that pollutant.

The higher the AQI, the greater the level of air pollution. The

USFS-led Interagency Wildland Fire Air Quality Response

Program (IWFAQRP) collaborates to maintain the public

AirNow Fire and Smoke Map (Figure 1). The map shows

current air quality data and fire and smoke plume information.

Both NOAA and EPA issue alerts to notify the public about

hazardous air quality, including smoke. For example, local

NOAA National Weather Service weather forecast offices (NWS

WFOs) convey official information from state and local air

quality agencies when AQI reaches 151 (the threshold at which

air is considered unhealthy) or above through Air Quality Alerts.

EPA also shares air quality alerts and forecasts through its

EnviroFlash email alert service. State and local agencies also

distribute the forecast information they generate to local radio

and television stations and online.

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Federal Air Quality and Wildfire Smoke Forecasting

Figure 1. Screenshot of AirNow Fire and Smoke Map, Focused on the Pacific Northwest, as of August 3, 2026.

Source: CRS screenshot, from AirNow, “Fire and Smoke Map,” as of August 3, 2026, at 11:37am.

Wildland Fire-Specific Efforts

Specific to wildland fires, IWFAQRP deploys technical

specialists—Air Resource Advisors (ARAs)—during large

smoke events. ARAs may provide, install, and operate monitors,

develop smoke forecasts and outlooks, and share information

with wildfire response teams, air quality regulators, and the

public.

Research

Smoke observations and forecasting continue to be areas of

active research due to the complex nature of wildfires,

atmospheric conditions and processes, and the smoke itself.

EPA, for example, supports air monitoring technology testing to

evaluate the performance of monitors under high smoke

concentration conditions. NOAA’s laboratories focus on

improving smoke and air quality modeling. Additional smoke

and air quality observations and forecasting research are

supported by other federal agencies, such as NASA and the

National Science Foundation.

Congressional Considerations

Congress may consider the federal role in smoke observations,

forecasting, communications, and research. Some stakeholders

and groups have identified additional activities for which there

could be a federal role. For instance, in a 2026 NOAA

workshop, state and local air quality forecasters identified

several outstanding needs: (1) reliable communication methods

for air quality alerts between state and local forecasters and

NWS WFOs; (2) development of fire and non-fire fine particle

tracking systems; and (3) a “one stop shop” for all air quality

models, among other requests. A 2023 report from a

congressionally created nonfederal committee recommended the

establishment of a nationally consistent smoke monitoring and

alert system, with investment into monitors, equipment,

personnel, technology, and data sharing at USFS, EPA, and

NOAA. A 2023 GAO report found that collaboration between

EPA, USFS, and NOAA to improve or refine smoke modeling

and forecasting capabilities could help state, local, and tribal

entities respond to wildfire events.

Congress could decide whether to support such activities

through existing programs or establish new programs or

interagency efforts. A part of that consideration may include

whether federal agencies have the capacity to implement such

efforts after agency staff reductions that began in 2025.

The 119th Congress directed several agencies to implement

wildfire smoke-related forecasting activities in language

accompanying the FY2026 appropriations bill. For example, it

directed EPA to continue improving smoke monitoring and

prediction and to expand wildfire smoke monitoring in

underserved or under-monitored communities. Congress also

supported funding for wildfire science at multiple agencies,

which may include smoke observations, forecasting,

communications, and research in some cases.

Some Members in the 119th Congress have also introduced bills

(e.g., H.R. 471, H.R. 753, H.R. 1923, H.R. 2770, H.R. 4075, S.

306, S. 453, S. 1462, S. 3923, and S. 5145) that would address

some of these stated needs and recommendations and other

aspects of wildfire smoke observations, forecasting,

communication, and research. Several bills (e.g., H.R. 471 and

S. 306) were reported out of a committee and passed by a

chamber, with others (e.g., S. 1462 and S. 3923) also reported

out of committee, as of the date of this report.

Eva Lipiec, Specialist in Natural Resource Policy

Alicyn R. Gitlin, Analyst in Natural Resources Policy

Omar M. Hammad, Analyst in Environmental Policy

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IF13288

Federal Air Quality and Wildfire Smoke Forecasting

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