Australia: Fires Highlight Government’s Climate Challenge

March 11, 2020

Australia: Fires Highlight Government’s Climate Challenge

Overview

The recent devastating bush fires in Australia highlight the

country’s growing dilemma over climate change.

Australia’s economy remains heavily weighted toward

extractive industries, leading to greenhouse gas (GHG)

emissions linked to climate change. A growing portion of

voters see climate change as a threat to Australia’s vital

interests. Many are pressuring Prime Minister Scott

Morrison’s right of center Liberal-National Party Coalition

to take additional steps to reduce emissions and combat

climate change.

Figure 1. Australia Fires Sept. 2019–Jan. 2020

rainfall in 2019 was the lowest since records began in 1900

and was 40% less than normal. 2019 was also the first year

that the hottest and driest years in Australia overlapped.

The Australian government reports that their Forest Fire

Danger Index has increased at 16 of 38 sites over the period

from 1973 to 2010. According to the Australian

government, surface temperatures over land and

surrounding seas increased by 3.2℉ since the beginning of

the 20th century. The frequency of very warm months has

increased, as has average rainfall. More frequent extreme

heat and flooding events raise risks to human health and to

livestock production. Sea levels vary significantly year-toyear, mostly associated with natural variability, though the

rising trend is less than the global average sea level rise.

According to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority,

“[c]limate change is the greatest threat to the Great Barrier

Reef” due to bleaching during high temperature episodes

and severe weather. Australia’s Department of Agriculture,

Water and the Environment has found that “Australia faces

significant environmental and economic impacts from

climate change across a number of sectors.”

The Fires’ Effect on Political Debate

Source: Created by CRS using data from NASA (FIRMS MODIS

and/or VIIRS Fire/Hotspot) and ESRI.

The Fires

According to the Australian government, “Australia is one

of the most fire prone regions in the world.” Nonetheless,

the 2019-2020 fires were extraordinary. (See Figure 1.)

More than 27.2 million acres of vegetation, 33 people, an

estimated one billion animals, and over 2,500 homes were

lost to bushfires in Australia in the 2019-2020 fire season.

(Fire Season normally lasts from October 1 to March 31.)

The area burned is larger than South Korea and 46% larger

than the area burned in the Amazon in 2019. Sydney’s air

quality became a health risk, and parts of the nation’s

capital Canberra had to be evacuated at one point. The

Australian army was called to assist firefighters, and the

navy evacuated people by sea from coastal communities cut

off by fire. The New York Times reported the estimated cost

to Australia’s economy to be between $3 and $3.5 billion.

Climate Change and Wildfires in

Australia

Several researchers have found that projected climate

changes show a trend towards more dangerous fire weather

conditions in Australia. The year 2019 was the hottest year

on record for Australia. (See Figure 2.) The average

daytime maximum temperature in Australia was reportedly

2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Australia’s average

These developments, particularly the recent fires, appear to

be affecting Australians’ attitudes towards climate change.

According to a 2019 Lowy poll, Australians ranked climate

change as the first of ten possible threats to Australia’s vital

interests over the next ten years, and 64% of those polled

view climate change as a “critical threat.” This was an

increase of six percentage points from 2018 and an 18 point

rise since 2014. The Lowy poll also found that 59% of

Australians polled believe the opposition Labor Party

would do a better job of managing Australia’s response to

climate change than the Coalition.

Prime Minister Morrison appears to some analysts to have

won the May 2019 election in part because he emphasized

the costs of climate action rather than the threat from

climate change itself. However, the fires of 2019 and 2020

may have shifted many Australians’ perceptions of the

relative costs. According to a Newspoll, Morrison’s

approval rating dropped 8 points from December 2019 to

January 2020.

The fires appear to have reignited past debates within the

Liberal-National Coalition on climate change policy. In

December 2019, the New South Wales Young Liberals

called on the government to make changes to address the

“extraordinary challenges presented by human-induced

climate change.” In February 2020, Morrison reportedly

faced opposition from within the Coalition party room over

his government’s climate change policy. Several Coalition

Members of Parliament (MP) reportedly argued that the

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Australia: Fires Highlight Government’s Climate Challenge

Coalition should embrace more ambitious climate change

action. A Liberal MP’s February 2020 proposal to establish

a dedicated climate change minister was reportedly opposed

by National Party members and hardline Liberals. In

February 2020, two other Liberal MPs declared that the

government should not support new coal-fired power

stations. Others argued against adopting “reactionary”

climate policies in response to the bushfire crisis.

By January 2020, Morrison, who had previously appeared

reluctant to discuss the link between climate change and the

fires, stated that the government could evolve its policies in

order to reduce emissions but without putting additional

costs on Australians or risking hurting resource industries.

Current opposition Labor Party Leader Anthony Albanese

has emphasized the need to create clean energy jobs while

advocating for a low carbon future. The Labor Party favors

more aggressive emissions reductions targets and has

reaffirmed its commitment to reach zero net emissions by

2050. The Australia Greens party has called for Australia to

become a leader in climate action while developing a

renewable energy economy. Greens Parliamentary Leader

Adam Bandt reportedly will advocate for a Green New

Deal and would phase out fossil fuel extraction in Australia.

Australia’s Emissions and Paris

Agreement

While Australia is responsible for an estimated 1% of

global emissions as a nation, it is the second highest emitter

on a per capita basis, after Saudi Arabia. Australia was also

estimated to be the 15th largest emitter of carbon dioxide in

2016. While Australia has committed to reduce its

emissions under the Paris Agreement by 26%-28% from

2005 levels by 2030, its emissions have reportedly

increased since 2013, and the recent fires themselves also

significantly increased Australia’s carbon dioxide emissions

over the past year. Critics of Australia’s existing pledge and

policies assert that they are less ambitious than what

Australia could achieve and do not represent a fair share of

the global effort to stabilize GHG in the atmosphere.

Figure 2. Australia’s Annual Mean Temperatures

Differences from the Long-Term Average, 1910-2019

Australian Reliance on Coal and Natural

Gas

Australia is one of the world’s largest producers and

exporters of coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Coal is

Australia’s second largest export, reaching $49 billion in

total value in financial year 2018-2019, and is used to

generate approximately two-thirds of Australia’s electricity.

LNG exports increased 61% in 2018-2019, and were

estimated to be worth $35 billion. Some in Australia argue

that LNG exports reduce global emissions by avoiding

power generation from coal. The U.S. Energy Information

Administration projects that Australia is on track to export

more LNG than Qatar and become the world’s largest LNG

exporter. A 2019 report ranked Australia third behind

Russia and Saudi Arabia in its fossil fuel exports according

to emissions potential.

According to some observers, economic reliance on coal

and LNG has made some Australian governments reluctant

to adopt climate change policies that could potentially

undermine the industry. Scott Morrison’s support for the

Adani coal mine being developed in Queensland, Australia,

for example, is credited as one of the factors that helped

him win a surprise victory in the 2019 election. The mine is

projected to become one of Australia’s largest coal mines.

Proponents of the mine have highlighted the economic

importance of the mine and the employment that it will

create in Queensland.

U.S. Linkages

The increasing intensity of Australia’s fire season and

resulting political challenges have direct and indirect

impacts on the United States. For example, the United

States, Australia, and New Zealand have exchanged

firefighting assistance for many years. In 2019, U.S.

Department of the Interior and U.S. Forest Service wildfire

personnel were sent to Australia to assist with wildfire

suppression. In addition, three American firefighters

working for Coulson Aviation, a private contractor, were

killed when their air tanker crashed while on a fire fighting

mission in Australia. In 2018, Australian and New Zealand

wildfire management personnel were sent to assist with

wildfire suppression in California. As fire seasons lengthen

and grow in intensity, increased demand for this shared

capability may strain existing capabilities.

Australia’s experience with the political debate over costs

of mitigation vs. risk of continued climate change may help

inform Congress’ deliberations over how to address the

issue. While the risks and the drivers may be different,

intensifying wildfire seasons also are a U.S. concern. For

example, an April 2019 report from California Governor

Gavin Newsom’s strike force office on “Wildfires and

Climate Change” found that “climate change is a core

driver of heightened wildfire risk.”

Source: CRS, using data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Notes: Average is calculated from 1961-1990 data.

Bruce Vaughn, Specialist in Asian Affairs

Susan G. Chesser, Senior Research Librarian

IF11453

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Australia: Fires Highlight Government’s Climate Challenge

Disclaimer

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