President Obama Pledges Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets as Contribution to 2015 Global Climate Change Deal

June 12, 2015

President Obama Pledges Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets as

Contribution to 2015 Global Climate Change Deal

U.S. Pledge to Reduce Greenhouse Gas

Emissions

On March 31, 2015, the Department of State formalized a

U.S. pledge, its “intended nationally determined

contribution (INDC),” that the United States intends to

reduce U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 26-28%

by 2025 compared to 2005 levels. The United States stated

it will “make best efforts to reduce its emissions by 28%.”

The United States submitted this INDC under the United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC) as a step in negotiating a new global agreement

by the end of 2015 to address climate change in 2020 and

beyond. All Parties are invited to submit INDCs as early as

they are prepared to do so before the December

negotiations. The U.S. INDC covers only GHG mitigation

though some countries seek commitments to cover

financing, support for adaptation to climate change,

compensation for loss and damage, and additional issues.

The U.S. INDC is not explicitly conditional on other

countries’ actions. The statement alludes, however, to the

continuing U.S. policy that GHG reductions be part of a

collective global effort.

The INDC also states that the U.S. 2025 target is consistent

with a straight-line emission reduction path to “deep

decarbonization” of 80% or more by 2050 (Figure 1). The

Administration has not produced a quantitative explanation

of what assumptions and measures would lead the United

States to achieve its INDC. Some observers believe that the

United States could commit to deeper reductions with

existing authorities, while others doubt that the

Administration has a quantitative plan to achieve the target.

Relevant Law, Regulations, and Measures

The U.S. INDC identifies regulations and authorities that

are “relevant” to implementing the target. Existing

regulations under the Clean Air Act (CAA) include fuel

economy standards for vehicles. The Energy Policy Act

(EPAct) and the Energy Independence and Security Act

(EISA) include energy conservation standards for

appliances and equipment and a building code

determination for commercial buildings. Regulations and

measures under development include the following:

 The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposal

of carbon dioxide emission standards for new electricity

generating units (EGUs) under CAA §111(b) and for

existing EGUs under CAA §111(d);

The United States notes that its INDC is supported by

domestic policy actions that place the nation on a course to

reduce GHG emissions by 17% by 2020 below 2005 levels.

Figure 1.

Source: CRS, with data from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Based on U.S. Government. “U.S. Cover Note, INDC and Accompanying

Information.” March 31, 2015. Available at http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx.

Notes: These estimates are of net human-related emissions, comprising gross emissions from energy and other sectors, net removals of CO2

from the atmosphere by “land use, land use change, and forestry” and sequestration of carbon in harvested wood products.

 Post-2018 fuel economy standards for heavy-duty

vehicles under the CAA;

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President Obama Pledges Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets as Contribution to 2015 Global Climate Change Deal

 Standards to limit methane emissions from landfills and

the oil and gas sector under the CAA;

 Reduction of hydrofluorocarbons use and emissions

under the CAA Significant New Alternatives Program

under CAA §605(a);

 Further energy conservation standards for buildings,

appliances, and equipment under EPAct and EISA;

 Actions under Executive Order 13693 (March 15, 2015)

to reduce GHG emissions from federal operations by

40% below 2005 levels by 2025.

Not Legally Binding

The United States and almost all other countries already

have legally binding, qualitative obligations under the

UNFCCC. The UNFCCC is an international treaty that is

legally binding on the United States because the parties

intended it to be so, the United States ratified it in 1992, and

it entered into force.

This INDC is not legally binding. Still to be negotiated is

whether its embodiment in, or association with, the new

agreement ultimately will be binding. The mandate for the

new agreement specifies that it should have “legal force ...

applicable to all Parties.”

U.S. negotiators have promoted a proposal that not all

elements of the agreement need be legally binding. Rather,

U.S. climate envoy Todd Stern stated, “We think the most

interesting proposal on the table is New Zealand’s, under

which there would be a legally binding obligation to submit

a ‘schedule’ for reducing emissions, plus various legally

binding provisions for accounting, reporting, review,

periodic updating of the schedules, etc. But the content of

the schedule itself would not be legally binding at an

international level.”

Many experts expect that, if the United States were to sign a

new agreement that contains binding, quantitative GHG

targets, the President would send it to the Senate or the full

Congress for its approval. To the degree that a new

agreement is not legally binding or does not contain new

substantive commitments, U.S. acceptance of the

arrangement may not legally require Senate advice and

consent.

Other Countries’ Targets

Other Parties have announced specific GHG targets or

actions to contribute to the evolving post-2020 regime. The

European Union (EU) and several countries have submitted

their INDCs, and others are expected to provide them midyear or later. The EU pledged to reduce its GHG emissions

to 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. Canada’s INDC stated

its intention to reduce its GHG emissions by 30% below

2005 levels by 2030. Russia offered an “indicator” of

limiting GHG to 25-30% below 1990 levels by 2030,

subject to “maximum possible account of absorbing

capacity of forests.”

Mexico was a developing country party in 1992 when the

UNFCCC was signed. Now Mexico has pledged an INDC

to “peak” its GHG emissions by 2026. As of June 1, 2015,

INDCs had also been submitted by Switzerland, Norway,

Gabon, Lichtenstein, and Andorra. Parties that have

submitted INDCs together account for more than a third of

global GHG emissions but include only four of the top 10

emitters.

In November 2014, China announced its intent to peak its

carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and increase the

non-fossil share of its primary energy supply to 20% by

2030. Its formal INDC is expected mid-year. India has been

less forthcoming about when it may submit its INDC or

what the content may be. Indian officials have stated that

the government will submit its INDC “well before” the

December meeting when the new agreement is due.

A 2o Celsius Goal

President Obama and other leaders of the Group of Seven

nations confirmed in their Declaration of June 8, 2015, their

support for a goal of avoiding a global temperature increase

greater than 2o Celsius (C) (3.6o Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. Some nations, particularly island states

and low-lying nations, have called for a stronger goal of

1.5o C instead.

The G7 also agreed to support sharing with all Parties a

reduction of global GHG emissions to the upper end of the

range of 40-70% below 2010 levels by 2050 without

specifying how that ambition might be shared among

countries or groups of countries. Such pledges are not

legally binding. The leaders also committed to “develop

long-term, national, low-carbon strategies,” including

“developing and deploying innovative technologies striving

for a transformation of the energy sectors by 2050.”

Observers at the meeting reported that German Chancellor

Angela Merkel, who hosted the session, sought stronger

commitments from other leaders, including a long-term

goal of zero-carbon economies. Leaders from Canada and

Japan were most reticent to set such a target, resulting in the

moderated language.

Jane A. Leggett, Specialist in Energy and Environmental

Policy

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President Obama Pledges Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets as Contribution to 2015 Global Climate Change Deal

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