DIVISION OF ECONOMIC AND RISK ANALYSIS (“DERA”) 1
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MEMORANDUM
TO:
FILE
FROM:
DIVISION OF ECONOMIC AND RISK ANALYSIS (“DERA”) 1
SUBJECT:
CORNERSTONE ANALYSIS OF LONG-LASTING STRADDLE STATES
DATE:
December 2017
The Division of Economic and Risk Analysis ("DERA") contracted with Cornerstone
Research (“Cornerstone”), an economic and financial consulting firm, to conduct analyses
related to investigating the occurrence of long-lasting "Straddle States" under the Limit Up-Limit
Down (“LULD”) National Market System (“NMS”) Plan (the “LULD Plan” or “Plan”). 2,3 Under
the LULD Plan, a Straddle State occurs when the National Best Bid (Offer) is below (above) the
lower (upper) Price Band and the NMS Stock is not in a Limit State. A Straddle State restricts
trading from occurring on the side of the quote that is outside the Price Bands. 4 The Cornerstone
analysis defines a long-lasting Straddle State as a Straddle State that lasts at least 5 minutes. 5
The Cornerstone analysis was commissioned by DERA as a result of the Notice of Filing
of the Twelfth Amendment to the LULD Plan, in which the Participants proposed eliminating the
definition of Straddle State from the Plan and the ability of a Primary Listing Exchange to
declare a Trading Pause while a security was in a Straddle State. 6,7 In the Notice of Filing of the
1
This is a memo by the Staff of the Division of Economic and Risk Analysis of the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission. The Commission has expressed no view regarding the analysis, findings or conclusions contained
herein.
2
See Order Approving, on a Pilot Basis, the National Market System Plan to Address Extraordinary Market
Volatility by BATS Exchange, Inc., BATS Y-Exchange, Inc., Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated,
Chicago Stock Exchange, Inc., EDGA Exchange, Inc., EDGX Exchange, Inc., Financial Industry Regulatory
Authority, Inc., NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc., NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC, The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC, National
Stock Exchange, Inc., New York Stock Exchange LLC, NYSE MKT LLC, and NYSE Arca, Inc. (altogether, the
"Participants") (“Approval Order”), Release No. 34-67091 (May 31, 2012), 77 FR 33498 (June 6, 2012) (File No. 4631). The original text of the Plan is attached to the Approval Order as Exhibit A (“The Plan”). Subsequent
amendments are available at https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nms.htm.
3
Capitalized terms used herein but not otherwise defined shall have the meaning ascribed to such terms in the Plan.
4
See supra note 2.
5
In some of the analysis, Cornerstone alternatively defines a long-lasting Straddle State as a Straddle State lasting at
least 30 minutes.
6
See Notice of Filing of the Twelfth Amendment to the National Market System Plan to Address Extraordinary
Market Volatility by Bats BZX Exchange, Inc., Bats BYX Exchange, Inc., Bats EDGA Exchange, Inc., Bats EDGX
Exchange, Inc., Chicago Stock Exchange, Inc., Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc., Investors Exchange
LLC, NASDAQ BX, Inc., NASDAQ PHLX LLC, The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC, National Stock Exchange, Inc.,
1
Twelfth Amendment, the Commission noted that Commission staff had conducted an analysis of
Straddle States under the Plan over the period from May 12, 2014 to August 29, 2014. 8 The staff
analysis found that 2,073,497 Straddle States occurred in Tier 2 securities over this time period
and the vast majority of Straddle States lasted less than five minutes. However, more than 4,000
Straddle States lasted between five and 30 minutes, and more than 4,000 Straddle States lasted
longer than 30 minutes. 9 Unlike Limit States, which can last up to 15 seconds, Straddle States
can last indefinitely, unless the Primary Listing Exchange declares a Trading Pause in
accordance to its policies and procedures pursuant to Section VII(A)(2) of the Plan. 10 This
means that there may be a long period of time during which one or both quotes are nonexecutable (i.e. cannot be traded against).
The Cornerstone analysis is meant to provide further details on these long-lasting
Straddle States, which could help inform future changes to the Plan. In particular, the
Cornerstone analysis investigates the frequency of occurrence of long-lasting Straddle States,
factors that influence the occurrence of long-lasting Straddle States, market activity during and
after long-lasting Straddle States, and the impact of the Tenth Amendment of the LULD Plan on
the occurrence of long-lasting Straddle States and Trading Pauses. 11
New York Stock Exchange LLC, NYSE MKT LLC, and NYSE Arca, Inc. (“Twelfth Amendment Notice of
Filing”), ”), Release No. 34-79410 (November 28, 2016).
7
On January 17, 2017, the Participants submitted a letter to the Commission related to the Twelfth Amendment to
the LULD Plan, which requested that the Commission modify the Twelfth Amendment to retain provisions in the
Plan related to Straddle States. The modified version of Amendment 12 was approved on January 19, 2017. See
Securities Exchange Act Release No. 79845 (January 19, 2017).
8
See supra note 6.
9
The results and additional analysis concerning Straddle States are also presented in the DERA White Paper entitled
“Limit Up-Limit Down Pilot Plan and Associated Events” by Claudia Moise and Paca Flaherty (2017). Available at
https://www.sec.gov/files/dera-luld-white-paper.pdf.
10
However, in the Notice of Filing of the Twelfth Amendment it states that there have not been any Trading Pauses
declared following a Straddle State. See supra note 6.
11
Amendment 10 revised the methodology for determining the initial Reference Price when there is not trading
volume in the opening auction. The new methodology uses the closing price of the NMS Stock on the primary
listing exchange on the previous trading day, or if no such closing price exists, the last sale on the primary listing
exchange, as the initial Reference Price, instead of the midpoint of the opening auction. The changes in Amendment
10 were made based on analysis The Participants presented in a Transmittal Letter and in The Supplemental Joint
Assessment that showed using the midpoint of the opening bid and ask when no trading occurred in the opening
auction often resulted in what the Participants believe was a skewed initial Reference Price. The Participant’s
analysis also showed that most Trading Halts occurred in securities that did not have a trade in the opening auction.
Amendment 10 was implemented on July 18, 2016. See Plan to Address Extraordinary Market Volatility as
amended by SEC Approval Order: Rel. No. 34-77679 (Amendment 10), available at
https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/nms/2016/34-77679.pdf. Also see Limit Up – Limit Down: National Market System
Plan Assessment To Address Extraordinary Market Volatility (the “Supplemental Joint Assessment” or
“Assessment”), available at https://www.sec.gov/comments/4-631/4631-39.pdf , and see Letter from Paul Roland,
2
Overall, the Cornerstone analysis finds that between August 1, 2014 and December 31,
2016, on average, over 140 long-lasting Straddle States occurred each day. It also finds that they
are more likely to occur in securities with lower trading volume, higher volatility, and smaller
market capitalizations and on days when no trade occurs during the opening. DERA believes
that the methodology employed by Cornerstone in the analysis is appropriate to address the
questions presented and agrees with the conclusions drawn by Cornerstone based on that
analysis. Below, we summarize the main findings presented in the Cornerstone analysis.
Overview of Analysis:
The Cornerstone analysis examines a sample of U.S. stocks and exchange traded products
during the period from August 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016 (609 trading days). 12 The analysis
focuses on long-lasting Straddle States, which the analysis defines as Straddle States lasting at
least 5 minutes. 13 Below, we summarize the main findings from the Cornerstone Analysis
regarding the frequency of occurrence of long-lasting Straddle States, factors that influence the
occurrence of long-lasting Straddle States, market activity during and after the occurrence of
long-lasting Straddle States, and the impact of Tenth Amendment of the LULD Plan on the
occurrence of long-lasting Straddle States and Trading Halts
1. Frequency of Occurrence of Long-Lasting Straddle States
The Cornerstone analysis examines how frequently long-lasting Straddle States occur. It
finds that, each day, an average of 84 symbols experience 141 long-lasting Straddle States,
which is five times more frequent than the rate at which Moise and Flaherty (2017) estimate
Trading Pauses occur. 14,15 However, the analysis finds that this represents a small percentage of
Straddle States, with over 98% of Straddle States lasting less than 5 minutes.
The analysis examines how frequently long-lasting Straddle States reoccur within the
same trading day and finds that the majority of symbols experience only one long-lasting
Straddle State during the same trading day. 16
Principal, U.S. Equities, Nasdaq, to Brent Fields, Secretary, Commission, dated February 18, 2016. (“Transmittal
Letter”).
12
Most of the analysis excludes August 24, 2015. Cornerstone does provide some analysis for August 24, 2015.
13
See supra note 5.
14
The Cornerstone analysis also examines the duration of long-lasting Straddles States and finds that 53.1% of longlasting straddle states last between 5 and 30 minutes, 11.8% last between 30 minutes and 1 hour, 15.1% last between
1 and 3 hours, 6.2% last between 3 and 5 hours, and 13.8% last between 5 and 6.5 hours.
15
Moise and Flaherty (2017) find that an average of 29.4 Trading Pauses occur each day (2295 Trading Pauses/78
days) during the period following the Phase-in of LULD for Tier II stocks. See supra note 9.
16
The analysis also finds that 29.5% of symbols that experience a long-lasting Straddle State experience at least two
long-lasting Straddles States in the same day and 12.8% experience at least three long-lasting Straddle States in the
same day.
3
The analysis also examines how frequently long-lasting Straddle States recur across days
and finds that long-lasting Straddle States do not frequently recur in most symbols that
experience at least one long-lasting Straddle State. 17 However, the analysis also finds that a
small group of 30 symbols frequently experience long-lasting Straddle States, with these
symbols experiencing long-lasting Straddle States on more than 200 days out of the 609-day
sample period. 18
2. Factors that Influence the Occurrence of Long-Lasting Straddle States
The Cornerstone analysis examines the factors that influence the occurrence of longlasting Straddle States. In our opinion, the results suggest that long-lasting Straddle States are
mainly associated with thin trading and gaps in liquidity (i.e. instances in which the depletion of
liquidity results in large price changes that revert once liquidity is restored). The analysis finds
that long-lasting Straddle States are more likely to occur in securities with lower trading volume,
higher volatility, and smaller market capitalizations. 19 The analysis also finds that long-lasting
Straddle States are more likely to occur on days when market volatility is high, i.e. days the
market experiences relatively large positive or negative returns or days when the VIX volatility
index is high. Additionally, the majority of long-lasting Straddle States occur in securities that
did not experience a trade during the opening, with the majority beginning at either 9:30am (the
start of trading) or 9:45am (when the LULD Price Bands narrow from double width).
3. Activity During and After the Occurrence of Long-Lasting Straddle States
The Cornerstone analysis examines trading and quoting activity during long-lasting
Straddle States and finds little trading activity occurs during most long-lasting Straddle States
and finds that quotes tend to be wider during most long-lasting Straddle States than under normal
trading conditions. Specifically, the analysis finds that no trades occur in over 75% of all longlasting Straddle States and that 95% of long-lasting Straddle States have quoted spreads that are
wider than the spreads during the control period. 20
The analysis also finds that the quoted spreads are wider than the Price Bands in 39% of
long-lasting Straddle States and that both the bid and ask quotes are outside the Price Bands in
24% of long-lasting Straddle States. These results could indicate that the Price Bands are not
wide enough in these securities.
17
2,364 unique symbols in the sample experience at least one long-lasting Straddle State. Over half of these symbols
experience long-lasting Straddle States on 5 or fewer days out of the 609 day sample period.
18
The analysis also finds a group of 83 symbols experience long-lasting Straddle States for a total of 101 to 200
days out of the 609 day sample period.
19
These types of securities are also more likely to have wider bid-ask spreads.
20
The Cornerstone analysis compares the period during a long-lasting Straddles State to a control period, which is
constructed by taking the time window corresponding to the Straddle State on the five trading days prior to the
event.
4
The Cornerstone analysis examines how long-lasting Straddle States end. 21 The analysis
finds that while the majority of long-lasting Straddle States end with both quotes inside the price
bands, 11% of long-lasting Straddle States end by entering a Limit State and 22% immediately
reenter another Straddle State. 22,23 Moreover, although the majority of long-lasting Straddle
States end with both quotes inside the price bands, the Cornerstone analysis finds that 54% of
long-lasting Straddle States eventually reenter another Straddle State on the same day. 24
4. Impact of the Tenth Amendment of the LULD Plan on Long-Lasting Straddle States and
Trading Halts
The Cornerstone analysis examines the impact of the Tenth Amendment on the occurrence of
long-lasting Straddle States and Trading Pauses. 25 The results of the Cornerstone analysis
suggest that, after the implementation of Amendment 10, long-lasting Straddle States are
substituting for some situations that previously would have resulted in a Trading Pause.
Specifically, the analysis finds that Trading Pauses are less likely to occur and long-lasting
Straddle States are more likely to occur in securities with no opening trade after the
implementation of the Tenth Amendment. 26
21
According to the Plan, the primary listing exchange has the discretion to declare a Trading Pause in order to
resolve a Straddle State. However, as discussed in the Notice of Filing of the Twelfth Amendment to the LULD
Plan, a primary listing exchange has never declared a Trading Pause while a security was in a Straddle State. See
supra note 6.
22
Of the 11% of long-lasting Straddle States that enter a Limit State, 7% end in a Trading Pauses.
23
Of the 22% of long-lasting Straddle States that immediately reenter another Straddle State, 7% immediately
reenter another long-lasting Straddle State and 15% immediately reenter another Straddle-State lasting less than five
minutes.
24
Specifically, the analysis finds that 54.4% of long-lasting Straddle States are eventually followed by another
Straddle State on the same trading day. Among these follow-up Straddle States, 32.4% are long-lasting Straddle
States and 67.6% last less than five minutes.
25
See supra note Error! Bookmark not defined.
26
The Cornerstone analysis also finds that the majority of long-lasting Straddle States occur in securities that did not
experience a trade during the opening. See Section III of the Cornerstone analysis.
5
M E MOR A N D UM
DATE:
Friday, July 21, 2017
TO:
Amy Edwards, Office of Markets, Division of Economic and Risk Analysis
FROM:
Stewart Mayhew, Cornerstone Research
RE:
Long-Lasting Straddle States
This memo summarizes research we have conducted pursuant to your request
under Contract SECHQ1-16-C-0024, related to straddle states1 under the Limit
Up/Limit Down (LULD) rules.
Specifically, this memo provides a summary overview of economic analysis
investigating the frequency of “long lasting” straddle states (defined as LULD
straddle states lasting at least five minutes or at least 30 minutes), the
characteristics of the securities experiencing such long-lasting straddle states, and
other aspects of market conditions surrounding long-lasting straddle states. The
memo also summarizes research examining the impact of Amendment 10
(implemented on July 18, 2016) on the occurrence of these long-lasting straddle
states. In conjunction with this memo, we have provided a slide deck with tables
and charts.
This research was performed by the staff of Cornerstone Research under my
direction, with additional guidance and oversight from subject matter expert Dr.
Timothy McCormick.
The analysis described below and in the accompanying slide deck is based on 609
trading days from August 1, 2014 to December 31, 2016. Most of the analysis
described below excludes August 24, 2015, a date that experienced an
extraordinary number of LULD events. Some analysis is provided for August 24,
2015. The data for this project were provided to Cornerstone Research by the staff
of the Division of Economic and Risk Analysis (DERA). This includes data on
straddle states, limit states, and LULD trading halts (as identified by the selfregulatory organizations (“SROs”), data from the Center for Research in Security
Prices (CRSP), and consolidated intraday data from the Trade and Quote (TAQ)
database.
1
Under the LULD rules, a straddle state occurs when the National Best Bid (Offer) is below (above) the lower
(upper) price band and the NMS Stock is not in a limit state. During a straddle state, there are some prices within the
quoted spread at which trades can be executed, but there are prices within the quoted spread at which trades cannot
be executed because they fall outside of the price bands.
1
The results of this research can be summarized as follows. The structure of this
outline refers to corresponding sections of the accompanying slide deck.
Section I: Univariate Distributions of Long-Lasting Straddle States
August 24, 2015 was an outlier with almost 10 times more straddle events than
usual. There were 1,384 straddle events lasting five minutes or more on August
24, 2015, occurring on 768 different symbols.
Based on analysis of the remainder of the sample, excluding August 24, 2015:
98.6% of all straddle states lasted less than five minutes.2
On average, there were 141 straddle events per day lasting at least five
minutes, and 66 straddle events lasting at least 30 minutes (slide 6).
The majority of long-lasting straddle states begin at the start of trading or
at 9:45 AM, the moment when the LULD bounds become narrower (slides
7–8).
Graphs are provided summarizing the average number of long-lasting
straddle events over the course of the trading day (slides 9–10).
Section II: Comparing Five- and 30-Minute Long-Lasting Straddle States
This section contains graphs showing cumulative time in straddle state conditional
on the length of the longest straddle of the day. Separate graphs are provided for
symbol-days on which the longest straddle state was less than five minutes,
between five and 30 minutes, and greater than 30 minutes (slides 13–15).
Instances in which a security persistently flickered in and out of a straddle state—
wherein the security never experienced a straddle state lasting longer than five
minutes, but was in a straddle state for a total of more than 30 minutes of the
day—are analyzed further. There are 156 such symbol-days in the sample, which
corresponds to this event occurring roughly once every four days (slides 12–13).
2
This occurred on 51 unique symbols, with one symbol flickering in and
out of straddle states on 16 different dates.
Of these flickering symbol-days, 33 symbol-days were in a straddle state
for at least five hours of the trading day.
There were 6,215,889 straddle states in the sample and 6,130,081 lasted less than five minutes.
2
Section III: Factors That Influence the Occurrence of Straddle States
The following factors were evaluated with respect to their likelihood of
influencing the occurrence of straddle states:
Market index returns: The incidence of long-lasting straddle events
appears to be slightly higher on days when the S&P 500 or the Russell
2000 experiences a relatively large movement up or down (slides 18–24)
or when the VIX volatility index is high (slides 25–26).
Breakdown by primary exchange listing and type of security: NASDAQlisted securities were more likely to experience a long-lasting straddle
state than securities listed on other exchanges (slides 27–29).
Whether the security was in Tier 1 or Tier 2 (slide 30).
Price level of prior day’s close, by price band regime (slide 31).
Existence of an opening trade (slide 32).
Trading volume: Long-lasting straddle states are more prevalent for lowervolume securities (slides 33–37).
Market capitalization (for common stock only): Long-lasting straddle
states are more prevalent for smaller issuers (slides 38–42).
The following logistic panel regression was used to estimate the significance of
various factors contributing to the likelihood of a long-lasting straddle event:
,
,
,
The dependent variable
, , has a value of one if there
was a long-lasting straddle state on a given symbol-day and zero otherwise. The
independent variables, , , include the following:
Trading volume on that day (measured in logarithm).
Indicator variable with a value of one if the stock is in Tier 1.
Indicator variable with a value of one if the prior day close was $3 or below.
Indicator variable with a value of one if the prior day close was below $0.75.
Indicator variable with a value of one if there was no opening trade.
Abnormal volume measured as the quintile rank of the current day’s volume
among the prior 30 days.
3
Stock volatility measured by the standard deviation of returns over the prior
30 days.
The results indicate that stocks with higher return volatility, higher abnormal
trading volume, and stocks that lack an opening trade were associated with a
higher likelihood of experiencing a long-lasting straddle state. Tier 1 stocks,
stocks with a prior day’s closing price below $3 and below $0.75, respectively,
and stocks with higher trading volume were associated with a lower likelihood of
experiencing a long-lasting straddle state. These results hold for estimations with
and without time fixed effects (slide 44).
Section IV: Activity During and After Long-Lasting Straddle States
Appearing first in this section is analysis on the propensity of straddle states to
recur across days. Thirty symbols experienced at least one long-lasting straddle
state on more than 200 days in the sample of 609 trading days. On average, 84
symbols per day experienced a long-lasting straddle event, although this number
varies considerably across the sample period. Of the symbols experience a longstraddle event, typically 10–25 symbols per day had a long-lasting straddle state
in each of the five previous trading days and 10–25 had a long-lasting straddle
state in none of the five previous trading days (slides 47–49).
The majority of symbols that experience a long-lasting straddle state on a given
day experience only one long-lasting straddle event on that day. In addition, 22%
of long-lasting straddle states were resolved by immediately entering into another
straddle state, while 10.8% were resolved by immediately entering into a limit
state (slides 51–53).
Next, the quoting and trading activity during the long-lasting straddle state is
analyzed. For several analyses in this section, a control period is constructed by
taking the time window corresponding to the straddle event on the five trading
days prior to the straddle event.3 The results show the following:
Quoting activity during the straddle event: Quoted relative spreads during
the straddle state were wider relative to the control period for 95% of
straddle events. For straddle events that occurred while the bands were
single wide, the time-weighted relative quoted spread was between 8%
and 16% more than half of the time (slides 55–59).
Straddle events were included in the sample for these analyses if there were five trading days to use as a control
period prior to the day of the straddle event and if there were no long-lasting straddle states during the control
period.
3
4
Trading volume during the straddle event: There were no shares traded
during 75.3% of long-lasting straddle states. Overall, volume during the
long-lasting straddle state was typically lower than the volume during the
same time interval on the five previous trading days (slides 60–61).
Breakdown of straddle state by straddle type: 41% of straddle states were
“limit up straddle states,” 32% were “limit down straddle states,” 24%
were instances in which the bid was below and the ask was above the price
bands, and 3% fell into more than one of these categories over the course
of the straddle state (slide 62).
Section V: Impact of Amendment 10 on Long-Lasting Straddle States
Amendment 10 was implemented on July 18, 2016 and was targeted at reducing
the number of trading halts on stocks that did not have an opening trade. The
amendment stated that stocks without any trading volume in the opening auction
would use the prior day’s closing price as the first reference price instead of the
midpoint of the opening quote.
The impact of Amendment 10 is analyzed by extending the regression
methodology outlined in Section III above. In particular, the specification adds
indicator variables for whether or not the stock had an opening trade and whether
the date was before or after Amendment 10 was implemented, as well as the
interaction of the two. The impact of Amendment 10 on the likelihood of
experiencing a trading halt is tested first.
,
∗
,
,
,
,
The independent variables include the following:
denotes an indicator variable with a value of one after
implementation.
, denotes an indicator variable with a value of one if
there was no opening trade.
∗
, denotes the interaction of the
two indicator variables described above.
, is the set of control variables described in Section III.
This analysis shows that the odds ratio of a stock experiencing a trading halt
conditional on that stock having no opening trade is approximately five to seven
times lower after the implementation of Amendment 10 (slide 65).
5
Next, the same model is used to test the impact of Amendment 10 on the
likelihood of experiencing a long-lasting straddle.
,
∗
,
,
,
,
This analysis shows that the odds ratio of a stock experiencing a long-lasting
straddle state conditional on that stock having no opening trade is approximately
1.2 times higher after the implementation of Amendment 10 (slide 67).
In summary, the results indicate that the implementation of Amendment 10
appears to have significantly reduced the likelihood of a trading halt, but
increased the likelihood of long-lasting straddle events.
6
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
July 21, 2017
Page 1
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Table of Contents
• Section I: Univariate Distributions of Long-Lasting Straddle States
• Section II: Comparing Five– and 30–Minute Long-Lasting Straddle States
• Section III: Factors That Influence the Occurrence of Straddle States
• Section IV: Activity During and After Long-Lasting Straddle States
• Section V: Impact of Amendment 10 on Long-Lasting Straddle States
Page 2
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Section I: Univariate Distributions of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Page 3
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Univariate Distributions of Long-Lasting Straddle States
• Sample Period: August 2014 – December 2016
• 98.6% of straddle states lasted less than five minutes.
• Statistics using five–minute threshold for long-lasting straddle states:
– Average number of straddle events: 141 per day
– Average number of symbols that experienced at least one straddle event: 84 per day
• Statistics using 30–minute threshold for long-lasting straddle states:
– Average number of straddle events: 66 per day
– Average number of symbols that experienced at least one straddle event: 53 per day
• Majority of long-lasting straddle states begin at the start of trading or 9:45 AM.
• Majority of analyses will be done using five–minute threshold.
• August 24, 2015
– There were 1,384 straddle events lasting five minutes or more, or almost 10 times
more than usual. The 1,384 straddle events occurred on 768 symbols.
– Due to the unusual nature of this day, it was excluded from most of the analysis.
Page 4
Distribution of Straddle State Duration
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[1]
Number of Straddle
States per Day[2]
60
53.9
53.7
50
46.4
40
Number of Symbols in a Straddle State:
From Open to Close: 6.2 per day
While Bands Were Single-Wide: 4.3 per day
30
21.1
19.4
20
16.6
14.1
10
7.2
4.7
4.1
3 hrs - 4 hrs
4 hrs - 5 hrs
0
1 min - 2 min
2 min - 5 min
Source: SEC Straddle Data
5 min - 15 min 15 min - 30 min 30 min - 1 hr
1 hr - 2 hrs
2 hrs - 3 hrs
5 hrs - 6.5 hrs
Straddle Duration[3]
Note:
[1] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[2] This figure depicts the distribution of straddle state durations for straddle states lasting longer than one minute. The full sample also includes 6,069,029
straddle states that lasted less than one minute, or approximately 10,000 per day.
[3] Straddle duration represents the total amount of time a straddle state lasted.
Page 5
Daily Counts of Long-Lasting Straddle States
August 2014 – December 2016
Number of
Straddle States
300
250
200
150
100
50
Straddle States Lasting At Least 5 Minutes
16
12
/3
0/
16
10
/1
2/
6
/1
25
7/
5/
5/
16
6
/1
17
2/
15
5/
/2
11
8/
9/
18
6/
15
5
/1
5
/1
31
3/
9/
1/
15
0/
/2
10
8/
1/
14
14
0
Straddles States Lasting At Least 30 Minutes
Source: SEC Straddle Data
Note: The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 6
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Page 9
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Page 10
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Section II: Comparing Five– and Thirty– Minute Long-Lasting Straddle States
Page 11
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Defining a Long-Lasting Straddle State
• 156 symbol-days (or one symbol every four days) persistently “flickered” in and out of a
straddle state, wherein they experienced no straddle states lasting longer than five minutes,
but were in a straddle state for more than 30 minutes of the day.
– These flickering symbol-days were spread across 51 unique symbols, with one symbol
experiencing flickering on 16 different dates.
– Flickering occurred on 85 unique dates, with two dates having a maximum of eight
different symbols experiencing flickering.
• Of these “flickering” symbol-days, 33 symbol-days (or one symbol every four weeks) were
in a straddle state for at least five hours of the day.
– These flickering symbol-days were spread across 11 unique symbols, with one symbol
experiencing flickering on 13 different dates.
– Flickering occurred on 30 unique dates, with three dates having a maximum of two
different symbols experiencing flickering.
Page 12
Average Number of
Symbols per Day[2]
26
Cumulative Time in Straddle State Conditional on the Longest
Straddle State Lasting Less Than Five Minutes
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[1]
24
22
20
18
16.0
16
14
12
11.0
10
8
6
4
2.7
2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
1 hr - 2 hrs
2 hrs - 3 hrs
3 hrs - 4 hrs
4 hrs - 5 hrs
5 hrs - 6.5 hrs
0
1 min - 2 min
2 min - 5 min
5 min - 15 min 15 min - 30 min 30 min - 1 hr
Straddle Duration[3]
Source: SEC Straddle Data
Note:
[1] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[2] This figure does not include the 50,562 symbol-days (approximately 83 symbols per day) for which the cumulative time in straddle state was less than one
minute.
[3] Straddle duration represents the total amount of time a symbol spent in a straddle state on a given day. Symbol-days on which the longest straddle states
lasted less than five minutes are included.
Page 13
Average Number of
Symbols per Day
26
Cumulative Time in Straddle State Conditional on the Longest
Straddle State Lasting Between Five and Thirty Minutes
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[1]
24
22
20
18
16.7
16
14
12
10.5
10
8
6
4
2.4
2
0.0
0.0
1 min - 2 min
2 min - 5 min
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
1 hr - 2 hrs
2 hrs - 3 hrs
3 hrs - 4 hrs
4 hrs - 5 hrs
5 hrs - 6.5 hrs
0
5 min - 15 min 15 min - 30 min 30 min - 1 hr
Straddle Duration[2]
Source: SEC Straddle Data
Note:
[1] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[2] Straddle duration represents the total amount of time a symbol spent in a straddle state on a given day. Symbol-days on which the longest straddle states
lasted greater than or equal to five minutes but less than 30 minutes are included.
Page 14
Cumulative Time in Straddle State Conditional on the Longest
Straddle State Lasting More Than 30 Minutes
Average Number of
Symbols per Day
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[1]
26
24.8
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8.8
8
7.2
6
5.2
3.9
4
3.5
2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0
1 min - 2 min
2 min - 5 min 5 min - 15 min 15 min - 30 min 30 min - 1 hr
Source: SEC Straddle Data
1 hr - 2 hrs
2 hrs - 3 hrs
3 hrs - 4 hrs
4 hrs - 5 hrs
5 hrs - 6.5 hrs
Straddle Duration[2]
Note:
[1] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[2] Straddle duration represents the total amount of time a symbol spent in a straddle state on a given day. Symbol-days on which the longest straddle
state lasted at least 30 minutes are included.
Page 15
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Section III: Factors That Influence the Occurrence of Straddle States
Page 16
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Factors That Influence the Occurrence of Straddle States
• Frequency of long-lasting straddle states shown by the following day characteristics:
– S&P 500 Return
– Russel 2000 Return
– VIX Level
• Frequency of long-lasting straddle states shown by the following stock characteristics[1]:
– Exchange
– Type of security
– Tier 1 or Tier 2 stock
– Price level of prior day’s close
– Whether or not there was an opening trade
– Volume
– Market capitalization (includes only common stock)
[1] Most of these analyses only include stocks that are included in the CRSP database. CRSP does not have data on BATS listed securities, ETNs, preferred stock, and units.
Page 17
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Average Number of
Straddle State Partitioned by S&P 500 Return[1]
Symbols per Day
120
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
100
97
92
84
81
80
78
78
80
81
84
81
60
40
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
(-5.2% to -1.0%) (-1.0% to -0.5%) (-0.5% to -0.2%) (-0.2% to -0.1%) (-0.1% to 0.0%) (0.0% to 0.2%) (0.2% to 0.4%) (0.4% to 0.6%) (0.6% to 1.2%) (1.2% to 3.9%)
S&P 500 Daily Return Deciles (Bounds)
Source: SEC Straddle Data; Bloomberg S&P 500 Total Return Index Data
Note:
[1] This graph shows the average number of unique symbols with a long-lasting straddle (a straddle state lasting at least five minutes) occurring on days partitioned by
the daily dividend-adjusted return of the S&P 500 Index.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
Page 18
Average Number of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Partitioned by S&P 500 Return[1]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
Average Number of
Straddles per Day
180
169
160
160
140
140
137
129
132
135
139
140
127
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
(-5.2% to -1.0%) (-1.0% to -0.5%) (-0.5% to -0.2%) (-0.2% to -0.1%) (-0.1% to 0.0%) (0.0% to 0.2%) (0.2% to 0.4%) (0.4% to 0.6%) (0.6% to 1.2%) (1.2% to 3.9%)
S&P 500 Daily Return Deciles (Bounds)
Source: SEC Straddle Data; Bloomberg S&P 500 Total Return Index Data
Note:
[1] This graph shows the average frequency of long-lasting straddle states (straddle states lasting at least five minutes) occurring on days partitioned by the daily
dividend-adjusted return of the S&P 500 Index.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
Page 19
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by S&P 500 Return
Average Number of
[1]
Symbols per Day
Highest
10%
of
Daily
Returns
140
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
120
115
114
107
100
100
86
84
82
80
85
79
70
60
40
20
0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
(1.2% to 1.2%) (1.2% to 1.3%) (1.3% to 1.3%) (1.3% to 1.4%) (1.4% to 1.5%) (1.5% to 1.6%) (1.6% to 1.7%) (1.7% to 1.9%) (1.9% to 2.2%) (2.2% to 3.9%)
S&P 500 Daily Return Percentiles (Bounds)
Source: SEC Straddle Data; Bloomberg S&P 500 Total Return Index Data
Note:
[1] This graph shows the average number of unique symbols with a long-lasting straddle (a straddle state lasting at least five minutes) occurring on days partitioned by
the daily dividend-adjusted return of the S&P 500 Index.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the full sample, excluding August 24, 2015. The 61 trading days included here are those with daily index returns in the highest 10% of
the full sample.
Page 20
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by S&P 500 Return
Average Number
of Symbols per
[1]
Lowest
10%
of
Daily
Returns
140
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
120
119
103
100
101
99
93
93
88
93
92
87
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
(-5.2% to -2.5%) (-2.5% to -2.0%) (-2.0% to -1.7%) (-1.7% to -1.6%) (-1.6% to -1.5%) (-1.5% to -1.4%) (-1.4% to -1.3%) (-1.3% to -1.2%) (-1.2% to -1.1%) (-1.1% to -1.0%)
S&P 500 Daily Return Percentiles (Bounds)
Source: SEC Straddle Data; Bloomberg S&P 500 Total Return Index Data
Note:
[1] This graph shows the average number of unique symbols with a long-lasting straddle (a straddle state lasting at least five minutes) occurring on days partitioned by
the daily dividend-adjusted return of the S&P 500 Index.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the full sample, excluding August 24, 2015. The 60 trading days included here are those with daily index returns in the lowest 10% of
the full sample.
Page 21
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by Russell 2000 Return[1]
Average Number of
Symbols per Day
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
120
100
93
92
86
85
80
80
81
78
78
84
80
60
40
20
0
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
(-4.6% to -1.4%) (-1.4% to -0.8%) (-0.8% to -0.4%) (-0.4% to -0.2%) (-0.2% to 0.1%) (0.1% to 0.3%) (0.3% to 0.6%) (0.6% to 0.9%) (0.9% to 1.4%) (1.4% to 3.2%)
Russell 2000 Daily Return Deciles (Bounds)
Source: SEC Straddle Data; Bloomberg Russell 2000 Total Return Index Data
Note:
[1] This graph shows the average number of unique symbols with a long-lasting straddle (a straddle state lasting at least five minutes) occurring on days partitioned by
the daily dividend-adjusted return of the Russell 2000 Index.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
Page 22
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by Russell 2000 Return
Average Number of
Symbols per Day
Highest 10% of Daily Returns[1]
120
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
109
107
103
100
100
96
95
91
77
80
73
69
60
40
20
0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
(1.4% to 1.4%) (1.4% to 1.5%) (1.5% to 1.6%) (1.6% to 1.7%) (1.7% to 1.8%) (1.8% to 1.9%) (1.9% to 2.2%) (2.2% to 2.3%) (2.3% to 2.6%) (2.6% to 3.2%)
Russell 2000 Daily Return Percentiles (Bounds)
Source: SEC Straddle Data; Bloomberg Russell 2000 Total Return Index Data
Note:
[1] This graph shows the average number of unique symbols with a long-lasting straddle (a straddle state lasting at least five minutes) occurring on days partitioned by
the daily dividend-adjusted return of the Russell 2000 Index.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the full sample, excluding August 24, 2015. The 61 trading days included here are those with daily index returns in the highest 10% of
the full sample.
Page 23
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by Russell 2000 Return
Average Number of
Symbols per Day
Lowest 10% of Daily Returns[1]
120
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
111
107
100
99
94
94
87
89
90
78
80
79
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
(-2.8% to -4.6%) (-2.5% to -2.8%) (-2.2% to -2.5%) (-1.9% to -2.2%) (-1.7% to -1.9%) (-1.6% to -1.7%) (-1.5% to -1.6%) (-1.5% to -1.5%) (-1.4% to -1.5%) (-1.4% to -1.4%)
Russell 2000 Daily Return Percentiles (Bounds)
Source: SEC Straddle Data; Bloomberg Russell 2000 Total Return Index Data
Note:
[1] This graph shows the average number of unique symbols with a long-lasting straddle (a straddle state lasting at least five minutes) occurring on days partitioned by
the daily dividend-adjusted return of the Russell 2000 Index.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the full sample, excluding August 24, 2015. The 60 trading days included here are those with daily index returns in the lowest 10% of
the full sample.
Page 24
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Average Number of
Straddle State Partitioned by VIX Value[1]
Symbols per Day
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
120
113
98
100
83
80
80
81
6
(14.7 to 15.5)
7
(15.5 to 16.7)
84
77
75
74
1
(11.3 to 12.3)
2
(12.3 to 12.9)
72
60
40
20
0
3
(12.9 to 13.5)
4
(13.5 to 14.0)
5
(14.0 to 14.7)
8
(16.7 to 18.8)
9
(18.8 to 22.0)
10
(22.0 to 36.0)
Daily VIX Value Deciles (Bounds)
Source: SEC Straddle Data; Bloomberg VIX Data
Note:
[1] This graph shows the average number of unique symbols with a long-lasting straddle (a straddle state lasting at least five minutes) occurring on days partitioned by
the VIX Value.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
Page 25
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by VIX Value
Average Number of
Symbols per Day
Highest 10% of Daily Values[1]
140
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
128
121
120
116
109
104
105
106
107
92
(22.5 to 23.4)
93
(23.4 to 24.1)
94
(24.1 to 24.5)
95
(24.5 to 25.4)
119
119
98
(26.7 to 27.8)
99
(27.8 to 36.0)
100
80
60
40
20
0
90
(22.0 to 22.4)
91
(22.4 to 22.5)
96
(25.4 to 26.1)
97
(26.1 to 26.7)
Daily VIX Value Percentiles (Bounds)
Source: SEC Straddle Data; Bloomberg VIX Data
Note:
[1] This graph shows the average frequency of long-lasting straddle states (straddle states lasting at least five minutes) occurring on days partitioned by the daily VIX
Value.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015. The 61 trading days included here are those with daily VIX Values in the highest 10% of the
full sample.
Page 26
Long-Lasting Straddle State Count Aggregated by CRSP
Share Code and Primary Listing Exchange[1]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
Long-Lasting Straddle State Counts
CRSP Share Code Definitions
Across All
Exchanges
Percentage of Symbol-Days That Experienced a Long-Lasting
[3]
Straddle State
Across All
Exchanges
NASDAQ
ARCA
NYSE
MKT
BATS
NASDAQ
ARCA
NYSE
MKT
BATS
Domestic Common Stock[4]
36,267
–
141
155
0
36,563
1.54%
0.00%
0.01%
0.11%
0.00%
0.91%
International Common Stock[5]
7,747
–
10
6
–
7,763
3.11%
0.00%
0.01%
0.02%
0.00%
1.46%
American Depositary Receipts[6]
4,009
–
104
2
–
4,115
3.88%
0.00%
0.06%
0.04%
0.00%
1.26%
Exchange Traded Funds[7]
1,114
2,353
–
–
73
3,540
0.65%
0.24%
0.00%
0.00%
0.21%
0.29%
376
463
23
28
–
890
0.52%
1.59%
0.00%
0.04%
0.00%
0.10%
49,513
2,816
278
191
73
52,871
1.66%
0.28%
0.01%
0.08%
0.21%
0.72%
Other[8]
Total Across All CRSP Share
Codes
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data; CRSP Data Guide; TAQ Data
Note:
[1] Long-lasting straddle states are defined as a straddle state lasting at least five minutes. The sample is limited to the universe of stocks included in CRSP and the universe of stocks traded on BATS.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[3] Each cell in this panel of the table shows the percent of days on which symbols trading on the given exchange with the given share code experienced at least one long-lasting straddle state. For example,
the cell that corresponds to share code 11 and NASDAQ represents the number of days on which symbols with share code 11 trading on NASDAQ experienced a straddle state, divided by the total number of
symbol-days in CRSP with share code 11 that trade on NASDAQ.
[4] Corresponds to CRSP share code 11.
[5] Corresponds to CRSP share code 12.
[6] Corresponds to CRSP share code 31.
[7] Corresponds to CRSP share code 73.
[8] Corresponds to all other CRSP share codes and includes securities such as closed-end funds and REITs.
Page 27
Long-Lasting Straddle State Count Aggregated by CRSP
[1]
Share Code and Primary Listing Exchange
8/24/15
Long-Lasting Straddle State Counts
CRSP Share Code Definitions
NASDAQ
ARCA
NYSE
Domestic Common Stock[3]
227
–
32
1
–
260
4.63%
0.00%
2.27%
0.49%
0.00%
3.57%
International Common Stock[4]
46
–
5
0
–
51
10.68%
0.00%
1.81%
0.00%
0.00%
5.73%
American Depositary Receipts[5]
14
–
6
0
–
20
7.34%
0.00%
2.20%
0.00%
0.00%
3.82%
Exchange Traded Funds[6]
86
760
–
–
6
852
26.59%
30.77%
0.00%
0.00%
17.14%
29.99%
Other[7]
7
5
20
0
–
32
8.33%
9.38%
2.33%
0.00%
0.00%
2.82%
380
765
63
1
6
1,215
6.68%
30.27%
2.25%
0.28%
17.14%
9.28%
Total Across All CRSP Share
Codes
MKT
BATS
Across All
Exchanges
Percentage of Symbol-Days That Experienced a Long-Lasting
[2]
Straddle State
Across All
Exchanges
NASDAQ
ARCA
NYSE
MKT
BATS
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data; CRSP Data Guide; TAQ Data
Note:
[1] Long-lasting straddle states are defined as a straddle state lasting at least five minutes. The sample is limited to the universe of stocks included in CRSP and the universe of stocks traded on BATS.
[2] Each cell in this panel of the table shows the percent of days on which symbols trading on the given exchange with the given share code experienced at least one long-lasting straddle state. For example,
the cell that corresponds to share code 11 and NASDAQ represents the number of days on which symbols with share code 11 trading on NASDAQ experienced a straddle state, divided by the total number of
symbol-days in CRSP with share code 11 that trade on NASDAQ.
[3] Corresponds to CRSP share code 11.
[4] Corresponds to CRSP share code 12.
[5] Corresponds to CRSP share code 31.
[6] Corresponds to CRSP share code 73.
[7] Corresponds to all other CRSP share codes and includes securities such as closed-end funds and REITs.
Page 28
Long-Lasting Straddle State Count Aggregated by CRSP
Share Code and Primary Listing Exchange[1]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
CRSP Share Code Definitions
Long-Lasting Straddle State Counts for Symbols That Experienced a
Long-Lasting Straddle on More Than 100 Days
Across All
Exchanges
NASDAQ
ARCA
NYSE
MKT
BATS
Long-Lasting Straddle State Counts for Symbols That Experienced a
Long-Lasting Straddle on More Than 200 Days
Across All
Exchanges
NASDAQ
ARCA
NYSE
MKT
BATS
Domestic Common Stock[3]
15,351
–
–
–
–
15,351
7,392
–
–
–
–
7,392
International Common Stock[4]
3,997
–
–
–
–
3,997
1,951
–
–
–
–
1,951
2,170
–
–
–
–
2,170
1,213
–
–
–
–
1,213
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
21,518
–
–
–
–
21,518
10,556
–
–
–
–
10,556
American Depositary Receipts
Exchange Traded Funds
[5]
[6]
Other[7]
Total Across All CRSP Share
Codes
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data; CRSP Data Guide; TAQ Data
Note:
[1] Long-lasting straddle states are defined as a straddle state lasting at least five minutes. The sample is limited to the universe of stocks included in CRSP and the universe of stocks traded on BATS.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[3] Corresponds to CRSP share code 11.
[4] Corresponds to CRSP share code 12.
[5] Corresponds to CRSP share code 31.
[6] Corresponds to CRSP share code 73.
[7] Corresponds to all other CRSP share codes and includes securities such as closed-end funds and REITs.
Page 29
Breakdown of Symbol-Days with at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State by Tier[1]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
0.3%
Tier 1
Tier 2
99.7%
Source: CRSP; SEC Price Bands Data
Note:
[1] Long-lasting straddle states are defined as a straddle state lasting at least five minutes. The sample is limited to the universe of symbols in CRSP.
[2] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 30
Breakdown of Symbol-Days with at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State by Closing Price on the Prior Day[1]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
1.5%
6.4%
Less than $0.75
Between $0.75 and
$3.00 (inclusive)
Greater than $3.00
92.1%
Source: CRSP
Note:
[1] Long-lasting straddle states are defined as a straddle state lasting at least five minutes. The sample is limited to the universe of symbols in CRSP.
[2] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 31
Breakdown of Symbol-Days with at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State by Whether or Not There Was an Opening Trade[1][2]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[3]
36.9%
Yes
No
63.1%
Source: CRSP; SEC Price Bands Data; TAQ Data
Note:
[1] Long-lasting straddle states are defined as a straddle state lasting at least five minutes. The sample is limited to the universe of symbols in CRSP.
[2] For straddle states that began at 9:30 AM, 32% of the symbols had an opening trade. For straddle states that began at 9:45 AM, 43% of the symbols had
an opening trade.
[3] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 32
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by Monthly Trading Volume[1]
Average Number of
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
Symbols per Day
35
30
29.1
Volume Decile Breakpoints[3]:
Minimum: 0
First Decile: 4,703
Second Decile: 17,644
Third Decile: 40,445
Fourth Decile: 79,475
Fifth Decile: 143,767
Sixth Decile: 253,120
Seventh Decile: 455,792
Eighth Decile: 873,377
Ninth Decile: 2,039,576
Maximum: 122,069,228
Number of Symbols that experience at least
one long-lasting straddle state and have zero
trading volume: 8.5 per day
25
20
14.5
15
10
5.6
5
1.9
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
6
Trading Volume Decile[4]
7
8
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data
Note:
[1] Monthly trading volume is calculated by summing the daily trading volume of a given symbol within the month.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[3] Symbol-days were assigned to trading volume deciles based on each individual month of trading. Therefore, a given symbol's percentile can vary from month to
month.
[4] The volume decile breakpoints are reported in shares per day and are averaged across the months of the sample period.
Page 33
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by Monthly Trading Volume[1]
Lowest 20 Percentiles
Average Number of
Symbols per Day
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
6
5
5.0
4
3.2
3.1
3
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.0
2
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.2
0.9
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Trading Volume Percentile[3]
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data
Note:
[1] Monthly trading volume is calculated by summing the daily trading volume of a given symbol within the month.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[3] Symbol-days were assigned to trading volume deciles based on each individual month of trading. Therefore, a given symbol's percentile can vary from month to
month.
Page 34
Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by Monthly Trading Volume[1]
8/24/15
Number of Symbols
300
250
240
200
155
150
100
77
59
50
37
35
26
20
13
4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Trading Volume Decile[2]
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data
Note:
[1] Monthly trading volume is calculated by summing the daily trading volume of a given symbol within the month.
[2] Symbol-days were assigned to market capitalization deciles based on trading in August 2015.
Page 35
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by Monthly Trading Volume[1]
Average Number of
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
Symbols per Day
35
30
29.1
All Symbols
Symbols That Experienced Long-Lasting Straddle States on 101 – 200 Days
25
Symbols That Experienced Long-Lasting Straddle States More Than 200 Days
20
14.5
15
10
6.8
6.1
5.6
5
2.7
1.9
0.7
0.6
0.1
0.1 0.0
0.7
0.0 0.0
0.2 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
6
7
8
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
Trading Volume Decile[3]
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data
Note:
[1] Monthly trading volume is calculated by summing the daily trading volume of a given symbol within the month.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[3] Symbol-days were assigned to trading volume deciles based on each individual month of trading. Therefore, a given symbol's percentile can vary from month to
month.
Page 36
Percent of Long-Lasting Straddle States per Trading Day by CRSP Volume Deciles
August 2014 – December 2016
% of Straddles
Per Day
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
16
12
/3
0/
16
10
/1
2/
6
/1
25
7/
16
5/
5/
6
/1
17
/2
11
Second Decile
2/
15
5/
15
8/
18
6/
First Decile
9/
5
/1
5
/1
31
3/
9/
1/
15
0/
/2
10
8/
1/
14
14
0
All Other Deciles
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data
Note: The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 37
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by Average Daily Market Capitalization[1]
Common Stock[2]
Average Number of
Symbols per Day
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[3]
16
14
13.8
12.8
12
10
8.1
8
6
5.1
4
2.1
2
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
7
8
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Market Capitalization Decile[4]
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data
Note:
[1] Average daily market capitalization is calculated on a monthly basis by multiplying the daily closing price by the daily number of shares outstanding, summing this
value across the month, and then dividing this sum by the number of trading days in the month.
[2] Common stocks are symbols with CRSP share code 11 or 12. Symbols with other share codes are excluded.
[3] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[4] Symbol-days were assigned to market capitalization deciles based on each individual month of trading. Therefore, a given symbol's percentile can vary from
month to month.
Page 38
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by Average Daily Market Capitalization[1]
Lowest 20 Percentiles of Common Stock[2]
Average Number of
Symbols per Day
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[3]
2
1.9
2
2
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.2
1
1.1
1.0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Market Capitalization Percentile[4]
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data
Note:
[1] Average daily market capitalization is calculated on a monthly basis by multiplying the daily closing price by the daily number of shares outstanding, summing this
value across the month, and then dividing this sum by the number of trading days in the month.
[2] Common stocks are symbols with CRSP share code 11 or 12. Symbols with other share codes are excluded.
[3] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[4] Symbol-days were assigned to market capitalization deciles based on each individual month of trading. Therefore, a given symbol's percentile can vary from month
to month.
Page 39
Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by Average Daily Market Capitalization[1]
Common Stock[2]
Number of Symbols
8/24/15
45
41
40
35
35
30
28
25
21
20
15
13
11
9
10
5
5
3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Market Capitalization Decile[3]
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data
Note:
[1] Average daily market capitalization is calculated on a monthly basis by multiplying the daily closing price by the daily number of shares outstanding, summing this
value across the month, and then dividing this sum by the number of trading days in the month.
[2] Common stocks are symbols with CRSP share code 11 or 12. Symbols with other share codes are excluded.
[3] Symbol-days were assigned to market capitalization deciles based on trading in August 2015.
Page 40
Average Number of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting
Straddle State Partitioned by Average Daily Market Capitalization[1]
Common Stock[2]
Average Number of
Symbols per Day
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[3]
16
14
13.8
12.8
All Symbols
Symbols That Experienced Long-Lasting Straddle States on 101 – 200 Days
Symbols That Experienced Long-Lasting Straddle States More Than 200 Days
12
10
8.1
8
6
4
5.1
3.2
3.1
2.3
2.1
2
1.2
1.3
1.6
1.3
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.2 0.0
0.1 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0
7
8
9
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Market Capitalization Decile[4]
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data
Note:
[1] Average daily market capitalization is calculated on a monthly basis by multiplying the daily closing price by the daily number of shares outstanding, summing this
value across the month, and then dividing this sum by the number of trading days in the month.
[2] Common stocks are symbols with CRSP share code 11 or 12. Symbols with other share codes are excluded.
[3] There are 609 trading days in the sample, excluding August 24, 2015.
[4] Symbol-days were assigned to market capitalization deciles based on each individual month of trading. Therefore, a given symbol's percentile can vary from
month to month.
Page 41
Percent of Long-Lasting Straddle States per Trading Day by CRSP Market Cap Deciles
Common Stocks Only
August 2014 – December 2016
% of Straddles
Per Day
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Second Decile
Third Decile
16
12
/3
0/
16
10
/1
2/
6
/1
25
7/
16
5/
5/
6
/1
17
2/
15
11
/2
5/
15
8/
18
6/
First Decile
9/
5
/1
5
/1
31
3/
9/
1/
15
0/
/2
10
8/
1/
14
14
0
All Other Deciles
Source: SEC Straddle Data; CRSP Data
Note: The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 42
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Factors That Influence the Occurrence of Straddle States
,
,
,
• Implement a Logistic Regression Model to test which factors significantly increase the likelihood
of experiencing a long-lasting straddle state.
• Run at the symbol-day level.
– Dependent Variable: Indicator variable with a value of one if the stock experienced at least
one long-lasting straddle state on that particular day.
– Independent Variables:
• Log of trading volume on that day.
• Indicator variable with a value of one if the stock is in Tier 1.
• Indicator variable with a value of one if the prior day close was $3 or below.
• Indicator variable with a value of one if the prior day close was below $0.75.
• Indicator variable with a value of one if there was no opening trade.
• Abnormal volume measured as quintile rank of the current day’s volume among the prior 30 days.
• Stock volatility measured by the standard deviation of returns over the prior 30 days.
– Sample is limited to the universe of stocks in CRSP.[1]
[1] CRSP does not have data on BATS listed securities, ETNs, preferred stock, and units. In addition, symbols-days for which the standard deviation of the
daily returns of the prior 30 days exceeded 20% and instances in which the existence of an opening trade could not be identified are excluded. One share is
added to the volume on all symbol-days in order to preserve symbol-days with zero volume.
Page 43
Logistic Regression Results[1]
[2]
Likelihood of Experiencing a Long-Lasting Straddle
[3]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16
Including Time Fixed Effects[4]
Parameter
Log Volume
Tier 1
Prior Day's Close Below $3
[5]
Prior Day's Close Below $0.75
Abnormal Volume
No Opening Trade
Equity Volatility
Number of Symbol/Days
All Symbols
Common Stock
ETFs
All Symbols
Common Stock
ETFs
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
-0.277**
-0.362**
-0.232**
-0.275**
-0.361**
-0.243**
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
-2.714**
-3.605**
-0.825**
-2.724**
-3.632**
-0.721**
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.004)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
-1.385**
-1.464**
-1.406*
-1.390**
-1.485**
-1.488**
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.047)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.002)
-1.420**
-1.136**
–
-1.460**
-1.197**
–
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
0.363**
0.449**
0.472**
0.354**
0.443**
0.471**
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
0.698**
0.570**
1.090**
0.727**
0.607**
1.179**
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
37.373**
31.067**
36.465**
37.361**
30.805**
41.804**
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
(0.000)
4,261,730
2,247,031
915,771
4,261,730
2,247,031
839,834
Sources: CRSP; SEC Straddle Data; SEC Price Bands Data; TAQ Data
[1] This table reports results from a logit regression estimating the effects of various factors on the likelihood of experiencing a long-lasting straddle state. The sample includes data for all stocks included in the
CRSP database. The dependent variable is an indicator variable that equals one if a stock experienced a long-lasting straddle on that particular day. Standard errors are estimated by clustering on stocks for the
specifications run without fixed effects. The "Permno" in CRSP is used to identify stocks over time. P-values are reported in parentheses below the coefficient estimates. Coefficient estimates that are statistically
different from zero at the 5% significance level are marked with one asterisk and those that are statistically different from zero at the 1% significance level are marked with two asterisks.
[2] Long-lasting straddle states are defined as a straddle state lasting at least five minutes.
[3] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
[4] Time fixed effects were implemented at the day level.
[5] There were only 11 observations where the prior day's closing price was below $0.75 for ETFs. This variable is excluded for the specifications that only include ETFs.
Page 44
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Section IV: Activity During and After Long-Lasting Straddle States
Page 45
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Propensity of Straddle States to Recur Across Days
• Of the 2,364 symbols that experienced a long-lasting straddle state, 26% experienced
long-lasting straddle states on just one day.
• 30 symbols experienced at least one long-lasting straddle state on more than 200 days out
of a sample of 609 days.
– These 30 symbols are not concentrated within a particular volume decile, market
capitalization decile, or price level.
• Typically 10 to 25 symbols per day had a long-lasting straddle state in each of the five
previous trading days.
• Similarly, 10 to 25 symbols per day had no long-lasting straddle states in the previous five
trading days, although there was more day-to-day variation in this metric.
Page 46
Distribution of Number of Trading Days on Which a Stock
Experienced a Long-Lasting Straddle State
Number of
Symbols[1]
700
610
600
500
400
308
300
313
266
200
183
169
184
135
83
100
83
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6 – 10
11 – 25
Number of Trading Days[2]
26 – 50
51 – 100
101 – 200
More than
200
Source: SEC Straddle Data
Note:
[1] There are 2,364 unique symbols in the full sample.
[2] There are 609 trading days in the full sample. August 24, 2015 has been excluded from the sample.
Page 47
Daily Counts of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting Straddle State
Compared to Symbols with a Long-Lasting Straddle State in Each of the Previous Five Trading Days
August 2014 – December 2016
Number of
Symbols
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
12
10
/3
/1
0/
16
16
2/
6
/1
25
7/
16
5/
5/
6
/1
17
2/
15
/2
11
8/
9/
Symbols with a Straddle
5/
15
5
18
6/
/1
5
/1
31
3/
9/
1/
15
0/
/2
10
8/
1/
14
14
0
Symbols with a Straddle and a Straddle in Each of the Previous Five Trading Days
Source: SEC Straddle Data
Note: The symbols that experienced straddle states on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 48
Daily Counts of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting Straddle State
Compared to Symbols without a Long-Lasting Straddle in the Last Five Trading Days
August 2014 – December 2016
Number of
Symbols
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
12
10
/3
/1
0/
16
16
2/
6
/1
25
7/
16
5/
5/
6
/1
17
2/
15
/2
11
8/
9/
Symbols with a Straddle
5/
15
5
18
6/
/1
5
/1
31
3/
9/
1/
15
0/
/2
10
8/
1/
14
14
0
Symbols with a Straddle That Did Not Have a Straddle in the Previous Five Trading Days
Source: SEC Straddle Data
Note: The symbols that experienced straddle states on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 49
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Propensity of Straddle States to Recur Within Days
• The majority of symbols that experience a long-lasting straddle state on a given day
experience only one long-lasting straddle state on that day.
– Of the symbols that experience a long-lasting straddle state on a given day, 29.5%
experience at least two long-lasting straddles, and 12.8% experience at least three
long-lasting straddles.
• 54.4% of long-lasting straddle states are eventually followed by another straddle state, short
or long, on the same day.
– 67.6% of the next straddle states are short and 32.4% are long.
– 22% of long-lasting straddle states are immediately followed by another straddle state,
and another 13.5% are followed by another straddle state within one minute.[1]
• The majority of long-lasting straddle states did not end by immediately entering into a limit
or straddle state.
– 10.8% of long-lasting straddle states resulted in a limit state.
– 7.0% of long-lasting straddle states ultimately resulted in a trading halt.
• Symbols in the first decile of trading volume were more likely to immediately enter into
another straddle state and about equally likely to enter into a limit state when compared to
symbols with higher trading volume.
[1] “Immediately” means that the symbol entered into another straddle state within the same millisecond.
Page 50
Daily Counts of Symbols Experiencing at Least One Long-Lasting Straddle State
August 2014 – December 2016
Number of
Symbols
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
At Least 1 Straddle
At Least 2 Straddles
At Least 3 Straddles
12
10
/3
/1
0/
16
16
2/
6
/1
25
7/
16
5/
5/
6
/1
17
2/
15
11
/2
8/
9/
5/
15
5
18
6/
/1
5
/1
31
3/
9/
1/
15
0/
/2
10
8/
1/
14
14
0
At Least 4 Straddles
Source: SEC Straddle Data
Note: The symbols that experienced straddle states on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 51
Long-Lasting Straddle States Partitioned by Time to Recurrence and
Whether the Ensuing Straddles State Was Short or Long[1]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
As a Percentage of All Long-Lasting Straddle States[3]
Number of Straddles States
Time to Next Straddle State
Entered into a
Short Straddle State
Entered into a
Long Straddle State
Total
Entered into a
Short Straddle State
Entered into a
Long Straddle State
Total
Immediately Re-entered[4]
12,837
5,998
18,835
15.0%
7.0%
22.0%
> 0 seconds – 1 minute
8,465
3,156
11,621
9.9%
3.7%
13.5%
1 minute – 10 minutes
5,253
3,243
8,496
6.1%
3.8%
9.9%
10 minutes – 1 hour
2,878
1,572
4,450
3.4%
1.8%
5.2%
1 hour – 6.5 hours
2,141
1,145
3,286
2.5%
1.3%
3.8%
Total
31,574
15,114
46,688
36.8%
17.6%
54.4%
Source: SEC Straddle Data
Note:
[1] Long-lasting straddle states are defined as lasting five minutes or more and short-lasting straddle states include all other straddle states.
[2] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
[3] Of the 85,808 long-lasting straddle states in the sample, 39,120 (45.6% of the full sample) of the long-lasting straddle states were the last straddle state of the day, short or long. Of those 39,120
straddle states, 8,569 (10% of the full sample) lasted until the end of the trading day.
[4] “Immediately” means that the symbol entered into another straddle state within the same millisecond.
Page 52
Long-Lasting Straddle Count by Manner in which the
Straddle State Was Resolved[1]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
10.0%
Did Not Immediately Enter
Limit or Straddle State
3.8%
Immediately Entered into a
Short-Lasting Straddle State
7.0%
Immediately Entered into a
Long-Lasting Straddle State
7.0%
57.2%
Immediately Entered Limit
State, Then Halted
Immediately Entered Limit
State, But Did Not Halt
15.0%
Reached the End of the
Trading Day
Source: SEC Straddle Data; SEC Halts Data; SEC Limit Data
Note:
[1] Long-lasting straddle states are defined as a straddle state lasting at least five minutes. “Immediately” means that the symbol entered into another
straddle state within the same millisecond.
[2] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 53
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Trading and Quoting Activity During Long-Lasting Straddle States
• For a sample of straddle states with a clean control period[1][2], spreads during the straddle state
were wider relative to the spread during the same time interval on the five previous trading days
for 95% of straddle events.
– For straddle events that occurred while the bands were single wide, relative quoted spreads
were typically between 8% and 16%, though with more variation for symbols in the lowest
quintile of volume.[3]
• In 14% of long-lasting straddle events the relative quoted spread was locked, crossed, or
exceeded 100% for at least 80% of the duration of the straddle state.[4]
• There were no shares traded during 75.3% of long-lasting straddle states.[5]
– For a sample of straddle states with a clean control period[1], volume during the long-lasting
straddle state was typically lower than the volume during the same time interval on the five
previous trading days.
• Limit up long-lasting straddle states were somewhat more common than limit down long-lasting
straddle states.
– For roughly one-quarter of straddle states, both the bid and the offer were outside the price
bands.
[1] The control period for these analyses is the time window corresponding to the straddle event on the five trading days prior to the straddle event. A control period is “clean” if there
were five trading days to use as a control period prior to the day of the straddle event and there were no long-lasting straddle states during the control period.
[2] Intervals during which the quoted relative spread was greater than 100% (or greater than 150% if the bid-ask midpoint was below $0.75) and intervals during which the quoted
spread was locked or crossed have been excluded. If the total amount of time excluded from the time-weighted spread calculation exceeded 50% of the straddle duration, the
straddle state was excluded from the analysis.
[3] This sample includes symbols trading between $5 and $100 and symbols that appear in the CRSP data. Approximately 10% of straddle events are included in this sample.
[4] If the bid-ask midpoint was below $0.75, a threshold of 150% was used instead of 100%.
[5] Traded volume includes regular trades, intermarket sweep orders, and odd lots.
Page 54
Quoted Spreads during Straddle Events Relative to Typical Quoted Spreads[1][2]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[3]
Percent of Events
25%
23.3%
20%
18.6%
15%
12.8%
11.0%
10%
7.9%
6.9%
5.8%
5.4%
4.4%
5%
3.9%
0%
0–1
1–2
2–3
3–4
4–5
5 – 10
10 – 25
25 – 50
50 – 100
100+
Ratio
Source: SEC Straddle Data; SEC Halts Data; TAQ Data
Note:
[1] Calculated as the ratio of the time-weighted relative quoted spread during the straddle event to the time-weighted relative quoted spread during the control
period. The control period spread is the average quoted spread during the same window of time as the straddle event on the five preceding trading days. If a symbol
was in a long-lasting straddle state during any of the control windows of time, or if there were not five prior trading days (e.g., the stock listed less than five days ago),
the straddle state was excluded from the analysis.
[2] Intervals during which the quoted relative spread was greater than 100% (or greater than 150% if the bid-ask midpoint was below $0.75) and intervals during
which the quoted spread was locked or crossed have been excluded. If the total amount of time excluded from the time-weighted spread calculation exceeded 50%
of the straddle duration, the straddle state was excluded from the analysis.
[3] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 55
Distribution of Time-Weighted Quoted Relative Spreads during the Control Period[1][2]
Partitioned by CRSP Volume Quintile[3]
Percent of Events
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[4]
50%
41.6%
38.6% 39.4%
40%
30%
Lowest Volume Quintile
(0% – 20%)
Second Lowest Volume Quintile
(20% – 40%)
28.0%
24.2% 24.4%
24.2%
Middle Volume Quintile
(40% – 60%)
21.4%
20%
15.1%
11.7%
11.3%
9.9%
10%
5.8%
2.9%
1.5%
0%
< 2%
2% – 4%
4% – 6%
6% – 8%
> 8%
Quoted Relative Spread
Source: SEC Straddle Data; SEC Halts Data; TAQ Data; CRSP
Note:
[1] The sample includes straddle states that occurred during the time period that the bands were single wide and on symbols with a closing price between $5 and
$100. The control period spread is the average quoted spread during the same window of time as the straddle event on the five preceding trading days. If a symbol
was in a long-lasting straddle state during any of the control windows of time, or if there were not five prior trading days (e.g., the stock listed less than five days
ago), the straddle state was excluded from the analysis.
[2] Intervals during which the quoted relative spread was greater than 100% (or greater than 150% if the bid-ask midpoint was below $0.75) and intervals during
which the quoted spread was locked or crossed have been excluded. If the total amount of time excluded from the time-weighted spread calculation exceeded 50%
of the straddle duration, the straddle state was excluded from the analysis.
[3] Symbols are partitioned into quintiles on a monthly basis using trading volume in CRSP.
[4] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 56
Distribution of Time-Weighted Quoted Relative Spreads during the Straddle Event[1][2]
Partitioned by CRSP Volume Quintile[3]
Percent of Events
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[4]
50%
Lowest Volume Quintile
(0% – 20%)
40%
36.0%
38.7%
37.2%
Second Lowest Volume Quintile
(20% – 40%)
34.8%
Middle Volume Quintile
(40% – 60%)
30%
26.0%
25.0%
21.9%
20%
16.8%
11.2%
12.4%
10.3% 10.2%
10%
7.8% 7.3%
4.4%
0%
< 8%
8% – 12%
12% – 16%
16% – 20%
> 20%
Quoted Relative Spread
Source: SEC Straddle Data; SEC Halts Data; TAQ Data; CRSP
Note:
[1] The sample includes straddle states that occurred during the time period that the bands were single wide and on symbols with a closing price between $5 and
$100. In order to make the sample parallel to the control period sample, if a symbol was in a long-lasting straddle state during any of the control windows of time, or if
there were not five prior trading days (e.g., the stock listed less than five days ago), the straddle state was excluded from the analysis.
[2] Intervals during which the quoted relative spread was greater than 100% (or greater than 150% if the bid-ask midpoint was below $0.75) and intervals during
which the quoted spread was locked or crossed have been excluded. If the total amount of time excluded from the time-weighted spread calculation exceeded 50%
of the straddle duration, the straddle state was excluded from the analysis.
[3] Symbols are partitioned into quintiles on a monthly basis using trading volume in CRSP.
[4] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 57
Percentage of Time during Straddle Event That the Quoted Spread Was
Locked, Crossed, or the Relative Spread Exceeded 100%[1]
Percent of Events
[2]
8/1/14
–
12/31/16
100%
90%
85.0%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10.4%
10%
3.5%
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
1% – 20%
20% – 40%
40% – 60%
60% – 80%
0%
< 1%
80% – 99%
> 99%
Percentage of Time during Straddle Event
Source: SEC Straddle Data; SEC Halts Data; TAQ Data
Note:
[1] Calculated as the percentage of time during the straddle event that the quoted relative spread was locked, crossed, or greater than 100% (or greater than 150% if
the bid-ask midpoint was below $0.75).
[2] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 58
Quoted Spreads during Straddle Events Relative to the Price Bands[1][2]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[3]
Percent of Events
50%
44.6%
40%
30%
19.2%
20%
16.0%
10%
7.8%
5.0%
2.2%
1.6%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
3.5 – 4.0
4.0 – 4.5
4.5 – 5.0
0.04%
0%
0 – 0.5
0.5 – 1.0
1.0 – 1.5
1.5 – 2.0
2.0 – 2.5
2.5 – 3.0
3.0 – 3.5
5.0+
Ratio
Source: SEC Straddle Data; SEC Halts Data; SEC Price Bands Data; TAQ Data
Note:
[1] Calculated as the ratio of the time-weighted relative quoted spread during the straddle event to the width of the price bands.
[2] Intervals during which the quoted relative spread was greater than 100% (or greater than 150% if the bid-ask midpoint was below $0.75) and intervals during
which the quoted spread was locked or crossed have been excluded. If the total amount of time excluded from the time-weighted spread calculation exceeded 50%
of the straddle duration, the straddle state was excluded from the analysis.
[3] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 59
Distribution of Traded Volume during Long-Lasting Straddle States[1]
Percentage of
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[2]
Sraddle States
80%
75.3%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
11.2%
10%
7.4%
2.6%
1.9%
0.9%
0.6%
501 – 1,000
1,001 – 2,000
2,001 – 4,000
4,000+
0%
0
1 – 100
101 – 500
Volume during Straddle State
Source: SEC Straddle Data; TAQ Data
Note:
[1] Traded volume includes regular trades, intermarket sweep orders, and odd lots.
[2] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 60
Distribution of Traded Volume during Long-Lasting Straddle States and the Control Period[1]
Sample of Symbols with No Long-Lasting Straddle States in the Control Period[2]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[3]
Percentage of
Sraddle States
80%
70%
66.7%
Volume during Straddle Event
Average Window Volume during Control Period
60%
50%
40%
37.0%
30%
20.7%
17.7%
20%
13.1%
11.2%
8.3%
10%
3.9%
7.0%
2.9%
5.2%
1.3%
4.1%
0.9%
0%
0
1 – 100
101 – 500
501 – 1,000
1,001 – 2,000
2,001 – 4,000
4,000+
Volume
Source: SEC Straddle Data; SEC Halts Data; TAQ Data
Note:
[1] Traded volume includes regular trades, intermarket sweep orders, and odd lots.
[2] The control period spread is the average daily volume during the same window of time as the straddle event on the five preceding trading days. If a symbol
was in a long-lasting straddle state during any of the control windows of time, or if there were not five prior trading days (e.g., the stock listed less than five days
ago), the straddle state was excluded from the analysis.
[3] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 61
Distribution of Long-Lasting Straddle States by Straddle Type
8/1/14 – 12/31/16[1]
3%
24%
41%
Limit Up Straddle State
Limit Down Straddle State
Both Quotes Outside of Bands
Multiple Straddle Types
32%
Source: SEC Straddle Data; SEC Price Bands Data; TAQ Data
Note:
[1] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 62
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Section V: Impact of Amendment 10 on Long-Lasting Straddle States
Page 63
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Impact of Amendment 10 on Trading Halts
• Amendment 10 stated that stocks with no volume in the opening auction would use the price of
the prior day’s close as the first reference price instead of the midpoint of the opening quote.
– Implemented on July 18, 2016
• Extend methodology of logistic regression model from Section III to test the impact of rule
change on trading halts (the target of the rule change).
,
,
∗
,
,
,
,
–
is an indicator variable with a value of one after implementation.
–
is an indicator variable with a value of one if there was no opening trade.
–
–
∗
,
is the interaction of the two indicators.
are the control variables from the prior regression.
• In this specification, the coefficient on the variable of interest, the interaction term, is significant
and corresponds to the odds ratio of a stock experiencing a trading halt conditional on that stock
having no opening trade being roughly five to seven times lower after the implementation of
Amendment 10.
Page 64
Logistic Regression Results[1]
[2]
Likelihood of Experiencing a Trading Halt
[3]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16
Full Sample
Balanced Panel
(1)
(2)
-0.181**
-0.233**
(0.000)
(0.000)
-0.484**
-0.212
(0.000)
(0.162)
-1.217**
-1.236**
(0.000)
(0.000)
-0.680**
-0.455**
(0.000)
(0.009)
2.248**
2.143**
(0.000)
(0.000)
-0.160*
-0.022
(0.044)
(0.820)
No Opening Trade∗Post
Amendment 10
-1.743**
-1.909**
(0.000)
(0.000)
Abnormal Volume
0.400**
0.498**
(0.000)
(0.000)
30.200**
33.884**
(0.000)
(0.000)
4,261,730
3,242,584
Parameter
Log Volume
Tier 1
Prior Day's Close Below $3
Prior Day's Close Below $0.75
No Opening Trade
Post Amendment 10
Equity Volatility
Number of Symbol/Days
Sources: CRSP; SEC Halts Data; SEC Price Bands Data; TAQ Data
[1] This table reports results from a logit regression estimating the effects of various factors on the likelihood of experiencing a trading halt. The sample
includes data for all stocks included in the CRSP database. The dependent variable is an indicator variable that equals one if a stock experienced a halt on
that particular day. Standard errors are estimated by clustering on stocks. The "Permno" in CRSP is used to identify stocks over time. P-values are
reported in parentheses below the coefficient estimates. Coefficient estimates that are statistically different from zero at the 5% significance level are
marked with one asterisk and those that are statistically different from zero at the 1% significance level are marked with two asterisks.
[2] Trading halts that were unrelated to the Limit Up-Limit Down rules were removed.
[3] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 65
Analysis of Long-Lasting Straddle States
Impact of Amendment 10 on Long-Lasting Straddle States
• We use the same methodology to test whether Amendment 10 had any impact on the
likelihood of a stock experiencing a long-lasting straddle state.
,
∗
,
,
,
,
,
–
is an indicator variable with a value of one after implementation.
–
is an indicator variable with a value of one if there was no opening trade.
–
–
∗
,
is the interaction of the two indicators.
are the control variables from the prior regression.
• The coefficient on the variable of interest, the interaction term, is significant and corresponds to
the odds ratio of a stock experiencing a long-lasting straddle state conditional on that stock
having no opening trade being roughly 1.2 times greater after the implementation of Amendment
10.
Page 66
Logistic Regression Results[1]
[2]
Likelihood of Experiencing a Long-Lasting Straddle
[3]
8/1/14 – 12/31/16
Full Sample
Balanced Panel
(1)
(2)
-0.276**
-0.352**
(0.000)
(0.000)
-2.713**
-2.685**
(0.000)
(0.000)
-1.384**
-1.437**
(0.000)
(0.000)
-1.418**
-1.060**
(0.000)
(0.000)
0.674**
0.512**
(0.000)
(0.000)
-0.026
-0.036
(0.683)
(0.640)
No Opening Trade∗Post
Amendment 10
0.153*
0.226**
(0.032)
(0.009)
Abnormal Volume
0.362**
0.468**
(0.000)
(0.000)
37.397**
39.391**
(0.000)
(0.000)
4,261,730
3,242,584
Parameter
Log Volume
Tier 1
Prior Day's Close Below $3
Prior Day's Close Below $0.75
No Opening Trade
Post Amendment 10
Equity Volatility
Number of Symbol/Days
Sources: CRSP; SEC Straddle Data; SEC Price Bands Data; TAQ Data
[1] This table reports results from a logit regression estimating the effects of various factors on the likelihood of experiencing a long-lasting straddle state.
The sample includes data for all stocks included in the CRSP database. The dependent variable is an indicator variable that equals one if a stock
experienced a long-lasting straddle on that particular day. Standard errors are estimated by clustering on stocks. The "Permno" in CRSP is used to identify
stocks over time. P-values are reported in parentheses below the coefficient estimates. Coefficient estimates that are statistically different from zero at the
5% significance level are marked with one asterisk and those that are statistically different from zero at the 1% significance level are marked with two
asterisks.
[2] Long-lasting straddle states are defined as a straddle state lasting at least five minutes.
[3] The straddle states that occurred on August 24, 2015 have been excluded.
Page 67
This is a copy of a public record, reproduced as it was published. It is not legal advice, and it may not be the version a court would rely on. Check the official source before you cite it.