# 60 FR 18378: Paroling, Recommitting, and Supervising Federal Prisoners: Revision of the Salient Factor Score > Federal · Regulations · In force URL: https://www.frixlaw.com/law-library/statutes/FR_PRORULE_95-8912 ## Section - **Citation:** 60 FR 18378 - **Heading:** Paroling, Recommitting, and Supervising Federal Prisoners: Revision of the Salient Factor Score - **Jurisdiction:** Federal - **Kind:** Regulations - **Status:** In force - **Text as of:** August 14, 2026 - **Source:** Compiled text - **Location:** Federal Register / Vol. 60 / 60 FR 18378 ## Text DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE Parole Commission 28 CFR Part 2 Paroling, Recommitting, and Supervising Federal Prisoners: Revision of the Salient Factor Score AGENCY: Parole Commission. ACTION: Proposed rule. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY: The U.S. Parole Commission is proposing to revise the Salient Factor Score at 28 CFR 2.20. The Salient Factor Score which is an actuarial table that the Commission uses to measure the potential risk of parole violation. This revision is designed to improve the accuracy of the Salient Factor Score with respect to older offenders. The Commission is proposing to add one point to a prisoner's total score if the current offense (or parole violation) was committed at age 41 or older, provided the prisoner does not already have the highest possible total score (10). This revision will give to the Salient Factor Score improved risk prediction accuracy. The revision is made appropriate by the fact that the Parole Commission has jurisdiction over an aging population of prisoners and parolees whose crimes were committed prior to November 1, 1987. DATES: Comments must be received by June 12, 1995. ADDRESSES: Send comments to Office of General Counsel, U.S. Parole Commission, 5550 Friendship Blvd., Chevy Chase, Maryland 20815. For further information contact: Pamela A. Posch, Office of General Counsel, Telephone (301) 492-5959. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Salient Factor Score at 28 CFR 2.20 is an actuarial device, based upon statistical research, that permits the U.S. Parole Commission to make a prediction as to the probability of future parole violation. It is applied to every prisoner who appears for an initial parole hearing, and to every parolee who has been returned to prison as a parole violator. The current version of the Salient Factor Score (SFS-81) was adopted in 1981, and was recently re- validated through a study of the parole records of federal prisoners released in 1987. This and other validation studies have shown that the Salient Factor Score is able to separate prisoners into categories having significantly different probabilities of recidivism, and that it continues to have a high degree of predictive accuracy. However, with the aging of the Parole Commission's ``old law'' offender population, it has become apparent that the accuracy of the Salient Factor Score could be improved by accounting for the factor of ``age at current offense'' in the case of older offenders and parole violators. (The U.S. Parole Commission's jurisdiction is limited to offenders whose crimes were committed prior to November 1, 1987. See Section 235 of the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, which appears as an Editorial Note to 18 U.S.C. 3551.) The Commission has long recognized that many criminal offenders eventually ``burn out'' as the aging process catches up with them. In a 1984 study by the Commission's Research Office, entitled ``Burnout--Age At Release From Prison and Recidivism'', it was found that recidivism rates do decline with increased age, and that it would be justifiable to improve the scores of prisoners whose current offense was committed at age 41 or older. At the present time, the average age of the ``old law'' prison population is 43. Thus, it has now become appropriate to consider adding this factor to the score. In order to test the accuracy of the proposed revision, the revised score was applied to a sample of over 1,000 federal prisoners released in 1987. Approximately 5% of those prisoners received an improved parole prognosis category placement as compared with the current version of the score (SFS-81). Moreover, the revised version of the score displayed a high degree of predictive accuracy. The Mean Cost Rating increased from .54 to .56, the highest recorded for a recidivism prediction device that has been subjected to validation. Accordingly, the Commission has decided that the Salient Factor Score should be revised, in order to ensure that the Commission's decisions are based upon the most accurate available risk-prediction device. This decision accords with the intent of Congress that the Parole Commission should ``* * * continue to refine both the criteria which are used (to judge the probability that an offender will commit a new offense) and the means for obtaining the information used therein.'' 2 U.S. Code Cong. and Admin. News at 359 (1976). Implementation The revised Salient Factor Score (SFS-95) would be applied at every initial parole hearing and revocation hearing held on or after the effective date of the final regulation, and retroactively to federal prisoners who have already been heard for parole or reparole, at the next scheduled statutory interim hearing under 28 CFR 2.14 and any hearing under Sec. 2.28 or Sec. 2.34. Executive Order 12866 and Regulatory Flexibility Statement The U.S. Parole Commission has determined that this proposed rule is not a significant rule within the meaning of Executive Order 12866, and the proposed rule has, accordingly, not been reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget. The proposed rule, if adopted, will not have a significant economic impact upon a substantial number of small entities, within the meaning of the Regulatory Flexibility Act, 5 U.S.C. 605(b). List of Subjects in 28 C.F.R. Part 2 Administrative practice and procedure, probation and parole, prisoners. Accordingly, the U.S. Parole Commission proposes the following amendment to 28 CFR part 2. The Proposed Amendment (1) The authority citation for 28 CFR part 2 continues to read as follows: Authority: 18 U.S.C. 4203(a)(1) and 4204(a)(6). (2) 28 CFR part 2 Sec. 2.20 is proposed to be amended by adding an instruction to the Salient Factor Scoring Manual under a new Item G as follows: ITEM G. If CURRENT OFFENSE WAS COMMITTED AT AGE 41 OR OLDER, ADD 1 POINT IF THE TOTAL SCORE DETERMINED ABOVE IS 9 OR LESS. This instruction would add a seventh item to the current six-item score, without changing its current structure as a prediction device with possible scores ranging from 0 to 10 points. (A point would not be added if the total score is already 10, placing the offender at the top of the ``very good'' parole prognosis category.) As in any case, the Commission will exercise authority to override the prediction made by the revised score if case-specific factors indicate undiminished risk despite advancing age, eg, the career criminal offender who has played a leadership role in organized crime. Dated: March 31, 1995. Edward F. Reilly, Jr., Chairman, U.S. Parole Commission. 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