# California State Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Standards; Notice of Decision Granting a Waiver of Clean Air Act Preemption for California's 2009 and Subsequent Model Year Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards for New Motor Vehicles > Briefs, arguments, decisions, and more. URL: https://www.frixlaw.com/law-library/documents/fr%3AE9-15943 ## Record - **Collection:** Federal Register - **Document type:** Notice - **Published:** July 8, 2009 - **Citation:** 74 FR 32744 ## Text ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-8927-2] California State Motor Vehicle Pollution Control Standards; Notice of Decision Granting a Waiver of Clean Air Act Preemption for California's 2009 and Subsequent Model Year Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards for New Motor Vehicles SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is granting the California Air Resources Board's (CARB's) request for a waiver of Clean Air Act preemption to enforce its greenhouse gas emission standards for model year 2009 and later new motor vehicles. This decision is under section 209(b) of the Clean Air Act (the “Act”), as amended. This decision withdraws and replaces EPA's prior denial of the CARB's December 21, 2005 waiver request, which was published in the Federal Register on March 6, 2008. DATES: Petitions for review must be filed by September 8, 2009. ADDRESSES: EPA has established a docket for this action under Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173. All documents and public comments in the docket are listed on the www.regulations.gov Web site. Publicly available docket materials are available either electronically through www.regulations.gov or in hard copy at the Air and Radiation Docket in the EPA Headquarters Library, EPA West Building, Room 3334, 1301 Constitution Ave., NW., Washington, DC. The Public Reading Room is open from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, excluding holidays. The telephone number for the Reading Room is (202) 566-1744. The Air and Radiation Docket and Information Center's Web site is http://www.epa.gov/oar/docket.html. The electronic mail (e-mail) address for the Air and Radiation Docket is: a-and-r-Docket@epa.gov, the telephone number is (202) 566-1742 and the fax number is (202) 566-9744. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Specific questions may be addressed to David Dickinson, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Compliance and Innovative Strategies Division (6405J-NLD), EPA, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW., Washington, DC 20460, telephone: (202) 343-9256, e-mail: Dickinson.David@epa.gov. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Table of Contents I. Executive Summary II. Background A. California's Greenhouse Gas Program for New Motor Vehicles B. EPA's Consideration of CARB's Request III. Analysis of Preemption Under Section 209(a) of the Clean Air Act A. Clean Air Act Preemption Provisions B. Deference to California C. Burden of Proof IV. California's Protectiveness Determination A. What Are “Applicable Federal Standards”? 1. Are “Applicable Federal Standards” Limited to Clean Air Act Emission Standards or Do They Include NHTSA's Fuel Economy Standards? 2. If EPA Did Consider CAFE Standards as “Applicable Federal Standards,” Are the CAFE Standards More Stringent Than California's Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards? B. How Does EPA Evaluate Impacts on Other States? C. Is California's Protectiveness Determination Arbitrary and Capricious? 1. Based on EPA's Traditional Analysis, Is California's Protectiveness Determination Arbitrary and Capricious? 2. Is California's Protectiveness Determination Arbitrary and Capricious Based on the Real-World In-Use Effects of California's Greenhouse Gas Standards? a. Fleet Turnover/Delayed Scrappage b. The “Rebound Effect” c. Upstream Emissions Impacts D. Section 209(b)(1)(A) Conclusion V. Does California Need Its Standards To Meet Compelling and Extraordinary Conditions? A. Basis of March 6, 2008 Denial B. Should EPA Review This Criterion Based on the Need for California's Motor Vehicle Program or the Need for the GHG Standards? 1. Comments Supporting a Review of the Entire Program 2. Comments Supporting a Review of the GHG Standards Separately 3. Decision C. Does California Need Its Motor Vehicle Program To Meet Compelling and Extraordinary Conditions? D. Does California Need Its Motor Vehicle GHG Standards To Meet Compelling and Extraordinary Conditions? 1. Are California's GHG Standards Designed in Part To Address an Air Pollution Problem That is Local or Regional in Nature? 2. Do the Impacts of Climate Change in California Support a Denial of the Waiver? a. What Test Applies Under This Alternative Approach? b. Would a Waiver Be Denied Under This Alternative Approach? 3. Must California's GHG Standards Achieve a Demonstrated Reduction in GHG Atmospheric Concentrations or Impacts Under Section 209(b)(1)(B)? E. Section 209(b)(1)(B) Conclusion VI. Are the California GHG Standards Consistent With Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act? A. Historical Approach: The Standard of Review for Consistency With Section 202(a) B. CARB's Assessment of the State of Development of GHG Reduction Technology and Comments Supporting CARB's Assessment 1. Development of GHG Reduction Technology 2. Overview of Technologies and Their Projected Applications 3. CARB's Update on Technological Development 4. Manufacturers' Comments on the Technological Feasibility of the GHG Standards C. Technological Feasibility and the Cost of Compliance 1. Historical Approach 2. Technology Cost Information in This Proceeding 3. Consistency of Certification Test Procedures 4. Safety Implications of the CARB GHG Standards E. Conclusion on Technological Feasibility F. Other Issues Related to Consistency With Section 202(a) 1. Impacts of EPA's March 6, 2008 Denial on Lead Time 2. Endangerment of Public Health or Welfare a. Is it Appropriate To Review Endangerment of Public Health or Welfare Under the “Consistency With Section 202(a)” Criterion? b. Parties Opposing the Waiver Have Not Met Their Burden of Showing Lack of Endangerment to Public Health or Welfare G. Section 209(b)(1)(C) Conclusion VII. Additional Issues Raised A. EPA's Administrative Process for Evaluating California's Waiver Request 1. Public Comment Process 2. EPA's Reconsideration Process 3. Is a Waiver Required Before California or Section 177 States Adopt California's Motor Vehicle Emission Standards? B. Scope of EPA's Waiver Review 1. Relevance of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) to the Waiver Decision 2. Do California's GHG Emission Standards Create an Impermissible “Patchwork”? 3. What Impact Does Granting California a Waiver for Its GHG Emission Standards Have on PSD Requirements for GHGs? VIII. Decision I. Executive Summary Today, I, as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, am granting California's request for a waiver of Clean Air Act preemption for California's greenhouse gas emission standards for 2009 and later model years of new motor vehicles, adopted by the California Air Resources Board on September 24, 2004. This decision withdraws and replaces EPA's previous March 6, 2008 Denial of California's waiver request. In the March 6, 2008 Denial, EPA determined that one of the three criteria for denial of a waiver had been met, namely, that California did not need its State standards to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions. I have reconsidered that determination, which was based on an interpretation of section 209(b)(1) of the Clean Air Act that I now reject. Based on a review of the statutory language, legislative history, and the comments received, I am returning to EPA's traditional interpretation of this provision. Applying EPA's traditional interpretation I have determined that the waiver should not be denied under this criterion. Since the March 6, 2008 Denial did not evaluate or make any determinations concerning either of the other two waiver criteria, I have evaluated those criteria and determined that the waiver should not be denied under either of them. This includes careful consideration of all of the evidence presented concerning technological feasibility of the model year 2009 and later model year standards, considering lead time and the cost of implementation. The legal framework for this decision stems from the waiver provision first adopted by Congress in 1967, and later modified in 1977. Congress established that there would be only two programs for control of emissions from new motor vehicles—EPA emission standards adopted under the Clean Air Act and California emission standards adopted under its state law. Congress accomplished this by preempting all state and local governments from adopting or enforcing emission standards for new motor vehicles, while at the same time providing that California could receive a waiver of preemption for its emission standards and enforcement procedures. This struck an important balance that protected manufacturers from multiple and different state emission standards, and preserved a pivotal role for California in the control of emissions from new motor vehicles. Congress recognized that California could serve as a pioneer and a laboratory for the nation in setting new motor vehicle emission standards. Congress intentionally structured this waiver provision to restrict and limit EPA's ability to deny a waiver, and did this to ensure that California had broad discretion in selecting the means it determined best to protect the health and welfare of its citizens. Section 209(b) specifies that EPA must grant California a waiver if California determines that its standards are, in the aggregate, at least as protective of the public health and welfare as applicable Federal standards. EPA may deny a waiver only if it makes at least one of three findings specified under the Clean Air Act (including whether California's “protectiveness finding” noted above is arbitrary and capricious). Therefore, EPA's role upon receiving a request for waiver of preemption from California is to determine whether it is appropriate to make any of the three findings specified by the Clean Air Act and if the Agency cannot make at least one of the three findings then the waiver must be granted. The three waiver criteria are properly seen as criteria for a denial—EPA must grant the waiver unless at least one of three criteria for a denial is met. This is different from most waiver situations before the Agency, where EPA typically determines whether it is appropriate to make certain findings necessary for granting a waiver, and if the findings are not made then a waiver is denied. This reversal of the normal statutory structure embodies and is consistent with the congressional intent of providing deference to California to maintain its own new motor vehicle emissions program. The three criteria for denial of a waiver are: First, whether California's determination that its standards are, in the aggregate, at least as protective as applicable Federal standards is arbitrary and capricious (Section 209(b)(1)(A)); second, whether California has a need for such standards to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions (Section 209(b)(1)(B)); and third, whether California's standards are consistent with Section 202(a) of the Act (Section 209(b)(1)(C)). EPA has consistently interpreted the waiver provision as placing the burden on the opponents of a waiver to demonstrate that one of the criteria for a denial has been met. In this context, since 1970, EPA has recognized its limited discretion in reviewing California waiver requests. EPA has granted over 50 waivers of preemption and has only fully denied one waiver request, the decision under reconsideration here. In this case, California first requested that EPA waive preemption for its new motor vehicle greenhouse gas emission standards on December 21, 2005. EPA did not begin its formal consideration of the waiver request until after the Massachusetts v. EPA decision in April 2007, in which the Supreme Court determined that greenhouse gases are air pollutants within that term's meaning in the Clean Air Act. On March 6, 2008, after an administrative process that included two public hearings and a written comment period, EPA published its final decision denying California's request. EPA's waiver denial was based on the second waiver criterion, with EPA determining that California did not need its greenhouse gas standards to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions. EPA did not address the other two waiver criteria. The reconsideration process started early this year. On January 21, 2009, California Governor Schwarzenegger sent a letter to President Obama, and the California Air Resources Board sent a letter to Administrator-designee Jackson, requesting the Agency reconsider the prior denial. After reviewing CARB's reconsideration request and the concerns raised by many different parties, EPA found that there were significant issues regarding the Agency's denial of the waiver. The denial was a substantial departure from EPA's longstanding interpretation of the Clean Air Act's waiver provision and EPA's history of granting waivers to California for its new motor vehicle emissions program. Many different parties, including California, states that have adopted or are interested in adopting California's standards, members of Congress, scientists, and other stakeholders, had expressed similar concerns about the denial of the waiver. Based on this, EPA believed there was merit to reconsidering its decision denying California's waiver request and on February 12, 2009, EPA published a Federal Register notice announcing its reconsideration of California's greenhouse gas waiver request. EPA held a public hearing on March 5, 2009, and received written comments through April 6, 2009. EPA received substantial comment on each of the three waiver criteria. The entire administrative process in consideration of California's request provided the Agency with extensive legal argument and evidence, including oral testimony from three public hearings and nearly 500,000 written comments. This material has been substantive and invaluable in the Agency's review. EPA has received extensive comments from many states; federal, state and local officials; industry; environmental groups; scientists; and other stakeholders. The vast majority of comments EPA received were in support of the waiver. After a thorough evaluation of the record, I am withdrawing EPA's March 6, 2008 Denial and have determined that the most appropriate action in response to California's greenhouse gas waiver request is to grant that request. I have determined that the waiver opponents have not met their burden of proof in order for me to deny the waiver under any of the three criteria in section 209(b)(1). The findings I have made concerning each of the criteria are summarized below. Concerning the criterion with respect to the protectiveness of California's standards in the aggregate, I find that the opponents of the waiver have not met their burden to demonstrate that California's determination was arbitrary and capricious. This evaluation can properly by made in situations where EPA has not issued its own standards, and this finding is appropriate whether or not comparison is made to EPA's current emissions standards or the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration's (NHTSA's) fuel economy standards, and whether or not it includes an evaluation of the real-world in-use effect of California's greenhouse gas standards on its broader motor vehicle program. With respect to the criterion concerning the need for California's state standards to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions, I have found that the March 6, 2008 Denial was based on an inappropriate interpretation of the waiver provision. The March 6, 2008 Denial determined that Congress intended to allow California to promulgate only those state standards that address pollution problems that are local or regional, and this provision was not intended to allow California to promulgate state standards designed to address global climate change problems. In the alternative, EPA found that the effects of climate change in California are not compelling and extraordinary compared to the effects in the rest of the country. The text of section 209(b) and the legislative history, when viewed together, lead me to reject the interpretation adopted in the March 6, 2008 Denial, and to apply the traditional interpretation to the evaluation of California's greenhouse gas standards for motor vehicles. If California needs a separate motor vehicle program to address the kinds of compelling and extraordinary conditions discussed in the traditional interpretation, then Congress intended that California could have such a program. Congress also intentionally provided California the broadest possible discretion in adopting the kind of standards in its motor vehicle program that California determines are appropriate to address air pollution problems and protect the health and welfare of its citizens. The better interpretation of the text and legislative history of this provision is that Congress did not use this criterion to limit California's discretion to a certain category of air pollution problems, to the exclusion of others. Under that interpretation, I cannot find that opponents of the waiver have demonstrated that California does not need its state standards to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions. The opponents of the waiver have not adequately demonstrated that California no longer has a need for its motor vehicle emissions program. I have also determined that even under the interpretation announced in the March 6, 2008 Denial, opponents of the waiver have not demonstrated that California does not need its greenhouse gas emission standards to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions. In addition, I have interpreted the “compelling and extraordinary conditions” criterion to not properly include a consideration of whether the impacts from climate change are compelling and extraordinary in California. Nevertheless, I have evaluated the comments received and evidence in the record and have determined that the opponents of the waiver have not met their burden in demonstrating why evidence such as the impacts of climate change on existing ozone conditions in California along with the cumulative impacts identified by proponents of the waiver ( e.g., impacts on snow melt and water resources and agricultural water supply, wildfires, coastal habitats, ecosystems, etc.) is not compelling and extraordinary. Concerning the criterion with respect to consistency of the greenhouse gas emission standards with section 202(a), EPA has reviewed extensive comments and records received from California and from the regulated community concerning the kinds of technology needed to comply with California's standards, including costs and lead time, as well as evidence concerning the current compliance status of manufacturers. In light of the previous waiver denial, EPA specifically asked for comment on how lead time should be evaluated as part of the Agency's reconsideration. Based on all of that information, I cannot find that opponents of the waiver have demonstrated that the greenhouse gas emission standards are inconsistent with section 202(a). While I believe that a grant of the waiver for model year 2009 would not be a retroactive change in the law, to limit any potential concerns that have been raised by the manufacturers over their potential reliance upon EPA's previous waiver denial, my decision provides that CARB may not hold a manufacturer liable or responsible for any noncompliance civil penalty action caused by emission debits generated by a manufacturer for the 2009 model year. EPA finds that those opposing the waiver request have not met the burden of demonstrating that California's regulations do not satisfy the statutory criteria of section 209(b). For this reason, I am granting California's waiver request to enforce its greenhouse gas motor vehicle emission regulations. II. Background A. California's Greenhouse Gas Program for New Motor Vehicles As further explained below, CARB has adopted amendments to title 13, California Code of Regulations (CCR), sections 1900 and 1961, and established standards to regulate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from new passenger cars, light-duty trucks and medium-duty vehicles in a new section 1961.1. California's GHG standards are included as part of its second generation low-emission vehicle program known as LEV II. EPA previously issued a waiver for the LEV II program and also issued a waiver for CARB's zero-emission vehicle program (known as ZEV) through the 2011 model year (MY). 1 By Resolution 04-28, CARB approved the GHG standards for motor vehicles on September 24, 2004, and California's Office of Administrative Law approved the regulations on September 15, 2005. 2 1 68 FR 19811 (April 22, 2003) and 71 FR 78190 (December 26, 2006). 2 California Air Resources Board, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-0004.2. CARB's regulation covers large-volume motor vehicle manufacturers beginning in the 2009 model year, and intermediate and small manufacturers beginning in the 2016 model year and controls greenhouse gas emissions from two categories of new motor vehicles—passenger cars and the lightest trucks (PC and LDT1) and heavier light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles (LDT2 and MDPV). The regulations add four new greenhouse gas air contaminants (carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)) to California's existing regulations for criteria and criteria-precursor pollutants and air toxic contaminants. There are separate fleet average emission standards for the two vehicle size categories and within each category the sales-weighted average of a manufacturer's vehicles is required to comply with the standard. The regulations establish a manufacturer declining fleet average emission standard for these gases (expressed as grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per mile (“gpm”)), with separate standards for each of the two categories of passenger vehicles noted above. CARB places the declining standards into two phases: near-term standards phased in from the 2009 through 2012 model years, and mid-term standards, phased in from the 2013 through 2016 model years. Manufacturers may receive credits for meeting the standards before model year 2009, for surpassing the standards in later model years, and for selling alternative fuel vehicles. These credits may be banked for later use, transferred between vehicle categories, or sold to another manufacturer. If a manufacturer fails to meet the standard in a particular model year, it will begin to accrue debits. At that point it will have five years to make up for the debits, either by generating credits, or by purchasing credits from another manufacturer. B. EPA's Consideration of CARB's Request By letter dated December 21, 2005, CARB submitted a request (“Waiver Request”) seeking a waiver of Section 209(a)'s prohibition for its motor vehicle GHG standards. 3 On February 21, 2007, EPA notified the Executive Officer of CARB that the timing of EPA's consideration of the GHG waiver request was related to the then-pending Massachusetts v. EPA case before the United States Supreme Court. EPA stated that the decision in that case could potentially be relevant to issues EPA might address in the context of the GHG waiver proceeding. The Supreme Court issued its Massachusetts v. EPA decision on April 2, 2007, finding that greenhouse gases are air pollutants under the Clean Air Act, and that EPA is required to decide the pending rulemaking petition under section 202(a) of the Act, based on the statutory criteria of whether, in the Administrator's judgment, emissions of greenhouse gases from new motor vehicles cause or contribute to air pollution that may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare. 4 3 California Air Resources Board, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-0004. 4 Massachusetts v. EPA, 549 U.S. 497, 127 S. Ct. 1438 (2007). On April 24, 2009, EPA issued “Proposed Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act” at 74 FR 18885 (April 24, 2009). On April 30, 2007, a Federal Register notice was published announcing an opportunity for hearing and comment on CARB's request. 5 EPA subsequently held two public hearings on May 22, 2007, in Washington, DC, and on May 30, 2007, in Sacramento, CA. The written comment period closed on June 15, 2007. On several occasions, EPA received requests to extend or re-open the comment period; however, the Agency did not extend the June 15, 2007 deadline. The Agency instead indicated that consistent with past waiver practice it would continue, as appropriate, to communicate with stakeholders and evaluate any comments submitted after the close of the comment period to the extent practicable. By letter dated December 19, 2007, EPA notified California Governor Schwarzenegger that EPA would be denying the waiver. On March 6, 2008, EPA published its decision denying California's waiver request (March 6, 2008 Denial). 6 5 72 FR 21260 (April 30, 2007). 6 73 FR 12156 (March 6, 2008). The State of California brought litigation against EPA in the United States Court of Appeals, DC Circuit. This litigation is held in abeyance pending further order of the court. (February 25, 2009). EPA's March 6, 2008 Denial was based on a finding that California did not need its GHG standards for new motor vehicles to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions. Because this finding was sufficient to deny California's waiver request, the Administrator found it unnecessary to determine whether the criteria for denial of a waiver under sections 209(b)(1)(A) and (C) had been met. On January 21, 2009, CARB submitted a request for EPA to reconsider its March 6, 2008 Denial (“Reconsideration Request”). 7 CARB's Reconsideration Request stated its belief that EPA has the inherent authority to reconsider its previous waiver denial and EPA should do so in order to restore the Agency's interpretations and applications of the Clean Air Act to continue California's longstanding leadership role in setting emission standards. Specifically, CARB noted several bases for the reconsideration centered on EPA's misinterpretation of the Clean Air Act to set new flawed tests and misapplication of facts to those tests. 7 California Air Resources Board, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-7044. President Obama issued a Presidential Memorandum to the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency on January 26, 2009, stating that “In order to ensure that the EPA carries out its responsibilities for improving air quality, you are hereby requested to assess whether the EPA's decision to deny a waiver based on California's application was appropriate in light of the Clean Air Act. I further request that, based on that assessment, the EPA initiate any appropriate action.” 8 8 74 FR 4905 (January 28, 2009). Subsequently, EPA published a Federal Register notice on February 12, 2009, which responded to CARB's reconsideration request and announced that EPA would fully review and reconsider its March 6, 2008 Denial. 9 The February 12, 2009 notice specifically sought comment on: any new or additional information regarding the three section 209(b) waiver criteria; whether EPA's interpretation and application of section 209(b)(1)(B) in the March 6, 2008 Denial was appropriate; and, the effect of the waiver denial on whether CARB's GHG standards are consistent with section 202(a), including lead time. After holding a public hearing on March 5, 2009, the written comment period closed on April 6, 2009. 9 74 FR 7040 (February 12, 2009). III. Analysis of Preemption Under Section 209(a) of the Clean Air Act A. Clean Air Act Preemption Provisions Section 209(a) of the Act provides: No State or any political subdivision thereof shall adopt or attempt to enforce any standard relating to the control of emissions from new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines subject to this part. No State shall require certification, inspection or any other approval relating to the control of emissions from any new motor vehicle or new motor vehicle engine as condition precedent to the initial retail sale, titling (if any), or registration of such motor vehicle, motor vehicle engine, or equipment. 10 10 Clean Air Act section 209(a). Section 209(b)(1) of the Act requires the Administrator, after an opportunity for public hearing, to waive application of the prohibitions of section 209(a) for any State that has adopted standards (other than crankcase emission standards) for the control of emissions from new motor vehicles or new motor engines prior to March 30, 1966, if the State determines that its State standards will be, in the aggregate, at least as protective of public health and welfare as applicable Federal standards. 11 However, no such waiver shall be granted by the Administrator if she finds that: (A) The protectiveness determination of the State is arbitrary and capricious; (B) the State does not need such State standards to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions; or (C) such State standards and accompanying enforcement procedures are not consistent with section 202(a) of the Act. In previous waiver decisions, EPA has stated that Congress intended EPA's review of California's decision-making be narrow. This has led EPA to reject arguments that are not specified in the statute as grounds for denying a waiver: 11 California is the only State which meets section 209(b)(1)'s requirement for obtaining a waiver. See S. Rep. No. 90-403 at 632 (1967). The law makes it clear that the waiver requests cannot be denied unless the specific findings designated in the statute can properly be made. The issue of whether a proposed California requirement is likely to result in only marginal improvement in air quality not commensurate with its cost or is otherwise an arguably unwise exercise of regulatory power is not legally pertinent to my decision under section 209, so long as the California requirement is consistent with section 202(a) and is more stringent than applicable Federal requirements in the sense that it may result in some further reduction in air pollution in California. 12 12 36 FR 17458 (Aug. 31, 1971). Note that the more stringent standard expressed here, in 1971, was superseded by the 1977 amendments to section 209, which established that California must determine that its standards are, in the aggregate, at least as protective of public health and welfare as applicable Federal standards. Thus, my consideration of all the evidence submitted concerning a waiver decision is circumscribed by its relevance to those questions that I may consider under section 209(b). B. Deference to California In previous waiver decisions, EPA has recognized that the intent of Congress in creating a limited review based on the section 209(b)(1) criteria was to ensure that the federal government did not second-guess the wisdom of state policy. This has led EPA to state: It is worth noting * * * I would feel constrained to approve a California approach to the problem which I might also feel unable to adopt at the federal level in my own capacity as a regulator. The whole approach of the Clean Air Act is to force the development of new types of emission control technology where that is needed by compelling the industry to “catch up” to some degree with newly promulgated standards. Such an approach * * * may be attended with costs, in the shaped of reduced product offering, or price or fuel economy penalties, and by risks that a wider number of vehicle classes may not be able to complete their development work in time. Since a balancing of these risks and costs against the potential benefits from reduced emissions is a central policy decision for any regulatory agency under the statutory scheme outlined above, I believe I am required to give very substantial deference to California's judgments on this score. 13 13 40 FR 23103-23104; see also LEV I Decision Document at 64. EPA has stated that the text, structure, and history of the California waiver provision clearly indicate both a congressional intent and appropriate EPA practice of leaving the decision on “ambiguous and controversial matters of public policy” to California's judgment. 14 14 40 FR 23104; 58 FR 4166. The House Committee Report explained as part of the 1977 amendments to the Clean Air Act, where Congress had the opportunity to restrict the waiver provision, it elected instead to explain California's flexibility to adopt a complete program of motor vehicle emission controls. The amendment is intended to ratify and strengthen the California waiver provision and to affirm the underlying intent of that provision, i.e., to afford California the broadest possible discretion in selecting the best means to protect the health of its citizens and the public welfare. 15 15 MEMA I, 627 F.2d at 1110 (citing H.R. Rep. No. 294, 95 Cong., 1st Sess. 301-02 (1977). C. Burden of Proof In Motor and Equip. Mfrs Assoc. v. EPA, 627 F.2d 1095 (DC Cir. 1979) ( MEMA I ), the U.S. Court of Appeals stated that the Administrator's role in a section 209 proceeding is to: consider all evidence that passes the threshold test of materiality and * * * thereafter assess such material evidence against a standard of proof to determine whether the parties favoring a denial of the waiver have shown that the factual circumstances exist in which Congress intended a denial of the waiver. 16 16 MEMA I, 627 F.2d at 1122. The court in MEMA I considered the standards of proof under section 209 for the two findings necessary to grant a waiver for an “accompanying enforcement procedure” (as opposed to the standards themselves): (1) Protectiveness in the aggregate and (2) consistency with section 202(a) findings. The court instructed that “the standard of proof must take account of the nature of the risk of error involved in any given decision, and it therefore varies with the finding involved. We need not decide how this standard operates in every waiver decision.” 17 17 Id. The court upheld the Administrator's position that, to deny a waiver, there must be `clear and compelling evidence' to show that proposed procedures undermine the protectiveness of California's standards. 18 The court noted that this standard of proof also accords with the congressional intent to provide California with the broadest possible discretion in setting regulations it finds protective of the public health and welfare. 19 18 Id. 19 Id. With respect to the consistency finding, the court did not articulate a standard of proof applicable to all proceedings, but found that the opponents of the waiver were unable to meet their burden of proof even if the standard were a mere preponderance of the evidence. Although MEMA I did not explicitly consider the standards of proof under section 209 concerning a waiver request for “standards,” as compared to accompanying enforcement procedures, there is nothing in the opinion to suggest that the court's analysis would not apply with equal force to such determinations. EPA's past waiver decisions have consistently made clear that: “[E]ven in the two areas concededly reserved for Federal judgment by this legislation—the existence of compelling and extraordinary' conditions and whether the standards are technologically feasible—Congress intended that the standards of EPA review of the State decision to be a narrow one.” 20 20 See, e.g., 40 FR 21102-103 (May 28, 1975). Finally, opponents of the waiver bear the burden of showing that the criteria for a denial of California's waiver request has been met. As found in MEMA I, this obligation rests firmly with opponents of the waiver in a section 209 proceeding, holding that: “[t]he language of the statute and it's legislative history indicate that California's regulations, and California's determinations that they must comply with the statute, when presented to the Administrator are presumed to satisfy the waiver requirements and that the burden of proving otherwise is on whoever attacks them. California must present its regulations and findings at the hearing and thereafter the parties opposing the waiver request bear the burden of persuading the Administrator that the waiver request should be denied.” 21 21 MEMA I, 627 F.2d at 1121. The Administrator's burden, on the other hand, is to make a reasonable evaluation of the information in the record in coming to the waiver decision. As the court in MEMA I stated, “Here, too, if the Administrator ignores evidence demonstrating that the waiver should not be granted, or if he seeks to overcome that evidence with unsupported assumptions of his own, he runs the risk of having his waiver decision set aside as ‘arbitrary and capricious.’ ” 22 Therefore, the Administrator's burden is to act “reasonably.” 23 22 Id. at 1126. 23 Id. at 1126. EPA received comment suggesting that the burden of proof upon reconsideration of EPA's March 6, 2008 Denial should be reversed and placed on California. 24 It is not clear whether the commenter is also suggesting that the entire burden of proof now shifts to California in that “[s]uch an allocation of the burden of proof ensures that decisions in which EPA has invested time and resources are not lightly overturned, and that those decisions enjoy the finality to which they are entitled.” Moreover, the commenter suggests that EPA carries a separate responsibility, in order to reverse its prior decision, to explain why its first decision on the waiver request is no longer the correct one. The commenter cites several cases for the proposition that “[A]n agency changing its course * * * is obligated to supply a reasoned analysis for the change beyond that which may be required when an agency does not act in the first instance” and that an agency must offer sufficient explanation to ensure the court that it is not “repudiating precedent to conform with shifting political mood.” 25 24 Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-8994 at 6-7. 25 Id. EPA believes that, regardless of the previous waiver denial, once California makes its protectiveness determination the burden of proof falls on the opponents of the waiver. This burden is inherent in the statutory requirement that EPA grant the waiver unless it makes one of the specific negative findings in section 209(b)(1). 26 This is consistent with the legislative history, which indicates that Congress intended a narrow review by EPA and to preserve the broadest possible discretion for California. 27 26 MEMA I, 627 F.2d at 1121. 27 MEMA I, 627 F.2d at 1110-11, citing H.R. Rep. No. 294, 95th Cong., 1st Sess. 301-02 (1977). As EPA explained in the previous waiver denial, the Agency did not address the section 209(b)(1)(A) and (C) criteria in its decision; therefore EPA is not in a position of reversing any interpretations or evidentiary findings. As further discussed in section VI, although commenters argue various adverse effects of the prior waiver denial on lead time, the burden remains on the opponents of the waiver to demonstrate why California's GHG standards are not consistent with section 202(a). With regard to section 209(b)(1)(B) and EPA's prior waiver denial, EPA has provided a reasoned analysis and explanation for any reversal of positions taken in this new decision. In the context of this reasoned explanation, EPA believes it is only required to demonstrate that it is aware that it is changing positions and that there are good reasons for the change in position. 28 As discussed above, the burden of proof under section 209(b)(1)(B) still falls on those who wish EPA to deny the waiver, based on the statutory structure of section 209(b)(1) and the legislative history. This requirement is not disturbed by EPA's initial denial. 28 Federal Communications Commission v. Fox Television Stations, Inc., 129 S.Ct. 1800, 1809 (2009). IV. California's Protectiveness Determination Section 209(b)(1)(A) of the Act requires EPA to deny a waiver if the Administrator finds that California was arbitrary and capricious in its determination that its State standards will be, in the aggregate, at least as protective of public health and welfare as applicable Federal standards. EPA recognizes that the phrase “States standards” means the entire California new motor vehicle emissions program. Therefore, as explained below, when evaluating California's protectiveness determination, EPA compares the California-to-Federal standards. That comparison is undertaken within the broader context of the previously waived California program, which relies upon protectiveness determinations that EPA have previously found were not arbitrary and capricious. 29 29 In situations where there are no Federal standards directly comparable to the specific California standards under review, the analysis then occurs against the backdrop of previous waivers which determined that the California program was at least as protective of the federal program ((LEV II + ZEV) + GHG). See 71 FR 78190 (December 28, 2006), Decision Document for Waiver of Federal Preemption for California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Standards (December 21, 2006). Traditionally, EPA has evaluated the stringency of California's standards relative to comparable EPA emission standards. 30 That evaluation follows the instruction of section 209(b)(2), which states: “If each State standard is at least as stringent as the comparable applicable Federal standard, such State standard shall be deemed to be at least as protective of health and welfare as such Federal standards for purposes of [209(b)(1)].” 30 36 FR 17458 (Aug. 31, 1971). (“The law makes it clear that the waiver requests cannot be denied unless the specific finding designated in the statute can properly be made. The issue of whether a proposed California requirement is likely to result in only marginal improvement in air quality not commensurate with its cost or is otherwise an arguably unwise exercise of regulatory power is not legally pertinent to my decision under section 209, so long as the California requirement is consistent with section 202(a) and is more stringent than applicable Federal requirements in the sense that it may result in some further reduction in air pollution in California.”). The “more stringent” standard expressed here in 1971 was superseded by the 1977 amendments to section 209, which established that California's standards must be, in the aggregate, at least as protective of public health and welfare as applicable Federal standards. The stringency standard remains, though, in section 209(b)(2). To review California's protectiveness determination in light of section 209(b)(2), EPA conducts its own analysis of the newly adopted California standards to comparable applicable Federal standards. Reviewing that comparison quantitatively answers whether the new standards are more or less protective than the Federal standards. That comparison of the newly adopted California standards to the comparable applicable Federal standards is conducted in light of prior waiver determinations. That is, the California-to-Federal analysis is undertaken within the broader context of the previously waived California program, which relies upon protectiveness determinations that EPA has not found arbitrary and capricious. 31 31 In situations where there are no Federal standards directly comparable to the specific California standards under review, the analysis then occurs against the backdrop of previous waivers which determined that the California program was at least as protective of the federal program ((LEV II + ZEV) + GHG). See 71 FR 78190 (December 28, 2006), Decision Document for Waiver of Federal Preemption for California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Standards (December 21, 2006). A finding that California's determination was arbitrary and capricious under section 209(b)(1)(A) must be based upon “`clear and compelling evidence' to show that proposed [standards] undermine the protectiveness of California's standards.” 32 Even if EPA's own analysis of comparable protectiveness or that suggested by a commenter might diverge from California's protectiveness finding, that is not a sufficient basis on its own for EPA to make a section 209(b)(1)(A) finding that California's protectiveness finding is arbitrary and capricious. 33 32 MEMA I, 627 F.2d at 1122. 33 “Once California has come forward with a finding that the procedures it seeks to adopt will not undermine the protectiveness of its standards, parties opposing the waiver request must show that this finding is unreasonable.” MEMA I, 627 F.2d at 1124. California made a protectiveness determination with regard to its greenhouse gas regulations in Resolution 04-28, adopted by the California Air Resources Board on September 23, 2004. 34 Included in that Resolution were several bases to support California's protectiveness determination. Most generally, CARB made a broad finding that observed and projected changes in California's climate are likely to have a significant adverse impact on public health and welfare in California, and that California is attempting to address those impacts by regulating in a field for which there are no comparable federal regulations. 35 CARB also found that its greenhouse gas standards will increase the health and welfare benefits from its broader motor vehicle emissions program by directly reducing upstream emissions of criteria pollutants from decreased fuel consumption. 36 Beyond that analysis of the new regulations' impact on its broader program, CARB projected consumer response to the greenhouse gas regulations. With respect to consumer shifts due to a potential “scrappage effect” (the impact of increased vehicle price on fleet age) and “rebound effect” (the impact of lower operating costs on vehicle miles travelled), CARB found minor impacts—but net reductions—on criteria pollutant emissions. 37 Further, even assuming larger shifts in consumer demand attributable to the greenhouse gas emission standards, CARB found that the result remains a net reduction in both greenhouse gas emissions and criteria pollutant emissions. 38 That is, CARB found that the addition of its greenhouse gas emission standards to its larger motor vehicle emissions program (LEV II), which generally aligns with the federal motor vehicle emissions program (Tier II), renders the whole program to be more protective of public health and welfare. CARB noted that EPA has already determined that California was not arbitrary and capricious in its determination that the pre-existing California standards for light-duty vehicles and trucks, known as LEV II, is at least as protective as comparable Federal standards, the Tier II standards. 39 Implicit in California's greenhouse gas protectiveness determination, then, is that the inclusion of greenhouse gas standards into California's existing motor vehicle emissions program will not cause California's program to be less protective than the federal program. 34 California Air Resources Board, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-0010.107, “Resolution 04-28, State of California, Air Resources Board, September 23, 2004” (“BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that the Board hereby determines that the regulations approved herein will not cause California motor vehicle emission standards, in the aggregate, to be less protective of public health and welfare than applicable federal standards.”). 35 California Air Resources Board, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-0010.107 at 9 (“Over the last hundred years, average temperatures in California have increased 0.7% F, sea levels have risen by three to eight inches, and spring run-off has decreased 12 percent. These observed and future changes are likely to have significant adverse effects on California's water resources, many ecological systems, as well as on human health and the economy. The signs of a global warming trend continue to become more evident and much of the scientific debate is now focused on expected rates at which future changes will occur.”); California Air Resources Board, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-0010.107 at 13 (“There are no comparable federal regulations that specifically require the control of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles.”). 36 “The establishment of greenhouse gas emission standards will result in a reduction in upstream emissions (emission due to the production and transportation of the fuel used by the vehicle) of greenhouse gas, criteria and toxic pollutants due to reduced fuel usage.” EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-0010.107 at 8. 37 “Supplemental analysis of the potential response of consumers (consumer response) to the regulations was performed as part of the staff evaluation. The evaluation of consumer response indicates that the impact of vehicle price increases on fleet turnover (changes to the average age of the motor vehicle fleet) as well as the impacts of lower operating costs on vehicle miles traveled (rebound effect) by consumers have minor impacts (less than one percent of the passenger vehicle emissions inventory) on criteria pollutant emissions.” EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-0010.107 at 12. 38 “Taking into account the penetration of 2009 and later vehicles meeting the new standard, the proposed regulation will reduce greenhouse gas emission by an estimated 87,700 CO 2 -equivelent tons per day statewide in 2020 and by 155,200 CO 2 -equivelent tons per day in 2030. This translates into an 18 percent overall reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from the light duty fleet in 2020 and a 27 percent overall reduction in 2030; Taking into account the penetration of 2009 and later vehicles meeting the new standard, the proposed regulation will reduce upstream emissions of non-methane organic gases (NMOG) by 4.6 tons per day statewide in 2020 and 7.9 tons per day statewide in 2030, and will reduce upstream emissions of NO X by 1.4 tons per day statewide in 2020 and 2.3 tons per day statewide in 2030. The regulation will provide a criteria pollutant benefit even taking into account possible pollutant increases due to consumer response.” EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-0010.107 at 15. 39 68 FR 19811 (April 22, 2003), Decision Document for Waiver of Federal Preemption for Low Emission Vehicle Amendments (LEV II) (April 11, 2003). A. What Are “Applicable Federal Standards”? EPA has received comments suggesting that the section 209(b)(1)(A) comparison to “applicable Federal standards” should include corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards promulgated, or that in the future may be promulgated, by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA), as amended by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA). 40 That suggestion departs from EPA's traditional analysis. EPA has always interpreted “applicable Federal standards” as limiting EPA's inquiry to motor vehicle emission standards established by EPA under the Clean Air Act. After a thorough examination of the text and legislative history of the section 209(b) waiver provision, EPA has determined that it should continue to interpret “applicable Federal standards” to mean motor vehicle emission standards established by EPA under the Clean Air Act that apply to the same cars and the same air pollutants or group of air pollutants as considered in California's aggregate protectiveness finding. Additionally, EPA has determined that even if it were appropriate to take NHTSA's fuel economy standards into account as “applicable Federal standards,” the waiver opponents have not met their burden of proof to demonstrate that California's protectiveness determination was arbitrary and capricious. No waiver opponent has demonstrated that existing or proposed fuel economy standards are more stringent or more protective of the public health and welfare than California's greenhouse gas emission standards. 40 Association of International Automobile Manufacturers, Inc., EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-1073-9005 at 13-14; Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-8994 at 16-23. 1. Are “Applicable Federal Standards” Limited to Clean Air Act Emission Standards or Do They Include NHTSA's Fuel Economy Standards? Section 209(b)(1)(A) requires EPA to evaluate whether California's determination regarding the comparative level of protectiveness of its standards of the public health and welfare was “arbitrary and capricious.” California's standards act to improve air quality, and thus benefit the public health and welfare, by establishing limits for emissions of air pollutants from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines. California is then required to compare these new motor vehicle standards in the aggregate to “applicable Federal standards” to determine the relative protectiveness of California's standards. Depending on whether the waiver is granted or denied, vehicle manufacturers will either have to meet California standards for those new vehicles subject to its standards and EPA standards for others, or EPA standards for all of the new vehicles. The most straightforward reading of the comparison called for by the statute, between California and Federal standards, is an “apples to apples” comparison. California has standards that apply to new motor vehicles and the standards set limits for emissions of air pollutants. California would then compare its standards to the same kind of Federal standard—Federal standards that apply to the same new motor vehicles and also set limits for emissions of air pollutants. The term “applicable” has to refer to what the Federal standards apply to, and the most straightforward meaning is that they apply in the same way that the California standards apply, by setting limits on emissions of air pollutants from specified new motor vehicles. “[A]pplicable Federal standards” would be standards that impose a requirement on new motor vehicles and that directly establishes limits on emissions of air pollutants, as do the California standards. The “applicable” Federal standards are those set by EPA that directly apply by regulation to the same vehicles and, like the California regulations, set limits for the same air pollutants. This is a straightforward and logical approach that provides clear guidance for California on what standards to compare. It avoids an open-ended inquiry into what other potential Federal standards might regulate different vehicles or regulate different aspects of the vehicles than emissions, and instead focuses the comparison on a clearly-defined and identifiable set of Federal standards that are parallel to the California standards at issue. This interpretation also ties the comparison to the only Federal standards that are affected by the results of the comparison. If the California comparison shows it is more protective and the waiver is granted, the California standards would apply to the vehicles under section 209(b) and compliance with the California's standards will be deemed to mean compliance with the EPA standards under section 209(b)(3). If the California comparison is arbitrary and capricious and a waiver is denied, then EPA's Federal emission standards apply to those vehicles and California's standards do not. The applicability of emission standards under section 209(b) that results from the waiver decision is parallel to and fully consistent with the comparison made between the California and applicable Federal standards. EPA has always limited its interpretation of the section 209(b) waiver provision to the scope of section 209(a)'s preemption. 41 Section 209(a) creates the explicit preemption of state emission standards, and at the same time leaves EPA to set federal emission standards, under the authority of section 202(a). Within the context of section 209, and the preemption of 209(a), section 209(b)'s waiver provision allows California the ability to set its own emission standards. Notably, section 209(b) merely gives back to California what was taken away by section 209(a)—the ability to adopt and enforce its own state emission standards. This interaction between sections 209(a) and 209(b) supports interpreting the “applicable Federal standards” mentioned in section 209(b)(1)(A) to mean the same types of emission standards as the emission standards that are actually set by California are preempted under section 209(a), and are the subject of a waiver request under section 209(b). 41 “The legislative history of section 209 supports the Administrator's interpretation that the waiver provision is coextensive with the preemption provision, thereby permitting the Administrator to consider waiving preemption of California's entire program of emissions control.” MEMA I, 627 F.2d 1095, 1108. Additionally, EPA's construction of “applicable Federal standards” provides a single, consistent usage of that phrase in the context of the section 209(b) waiver provision. In section 209(b), the phrase “applicable Federal standards” appears three times. The first two instances appear in sections 209(b)(1) and 209(b)(2) and pertain to EPA's review of California's protectiveness determination and the relative stringency of California's standards, as has been discussed above. The third instance occurs in section 209(b)(3) and specifically contemplates treatment of waived California standards for the purpose of Clean Air Act compliance. Section 209(b)(3) states: “in the case of any new motor vehicle or new motor vehicle engine to which State standards apply pursuant to a waiver granted under paragraph (1), compliance with such State standards shall be treated as compliance with applicable Federal standards for purposes of this title.” (Emphasis added) The reference to Title II of the Clean Air Act in section 209(b)(3) is further reason to limit the construction of “applicable Federal standards” to comparable Clean Air Act emission standards in sections 209(b)(1) and 209(b)(2). All three occurrences of “applicable Federal standards” in section 209(b) are then given the same meaning, in a context where all three occurrences function interactively to allow California to enforce its own emission standards. The textual structure and legislative history of the waiver provision also support EPA's interpretation of “applicable Federal standards.” The structure of section 209(b) is notable in its focus on limiting the ability of EPA to deny a waiver and preserving “the broadest possible discretion” for California to construct its motor vehicle program as it deems appropriate to protect its public health and welfare. 42 Where, as in this case, California's emission standards are specified in terms of direct regulation of emissions from new motor vehicles, it is most clearly reasonable for EPA to limit its review under this criterion to those federal standards that likewise set limits for the same air pollutant emissions from the same motor vehicles. This is consistent with Congress' intent to provide California the broadest discretion and avoids limiting California's authority and frustrating this congressional intent. 43 EPA, thus, has determined it is reasonable to interpret “applicable Federal standards” to mean those EPA standards under the Clean Air Act that apply in the same manner as the California emission standards, regulating emissions of air pollutants from new motor vehicles. 44 Under this approach, any EPA standard that, like California's standards, sets limits for motor vehicle emissions could be considered an “applicable Federal standard” for the purpose of California's protectiveness determination. 45 42 H.R. Rep. No. 294, 95th Cong., 1st Sess. 301-302 (1977); MEMA I, 627 F. 2d at 1110-11. 43 See MEMA I, 627 F. 2d at 1111. 44 Entergy Corp. v. Riverkeeper, Inc., 129 S.Ct. 1498 (2009) (“That view governs if it is a reasonable interpretation of the statute—not necessarily the only possible interpretation, nor even the interpretation deemed most reasonable by the courts. Chevron U.S.A. Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., 467 U.S. 837, 8430844 (1984).”). 45 In this waiver there are no EPA or other Federal standards that have been identified that explicitly and directly regulate emissions of GHGs from new motor vehicles. While emission standards promulgated by EPA have always been treated as applicable Federal standards because they explicitly regulate the same vehicles and air pollutants, there is the possibility that another Federal agency could have a standard that also directly and explicitly regulates emissions from some new motor vehicles. EPA is not aware of any such circumstances at this time, but reserves the right to consider in the future whether such a non-EPA Federal standard would be considered an “applicable Federal standards” for the purpose of a CAA waiver determination. Applying this interpretation, Federal fuel economy standards issued by NHTSA would not be considered “applicable Federal standards” for purposes of this waiver criterion. In contrast to standards set limits for emissions from new motor vehicles, corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards set limits on fuel efficiency, to reduce fuel consumption. In contrast to EPA's and California's emission standards, which typically establish grams per mile (“gpm”) levels of acceptable pollutant emissions, CAFE standards establish “miles per gallon” (“mpg”) levels of acceptable fuel efficiency. Standards that set limits for emission levels and standards that set limits for fuel efficiency apply different legal requirements. The two kinds of standards can overlap significantly, in that the technology used to increase fuel efficiency will also lead to reductions in emissions of one of the GHGs—CO 2 — but they are not the same legal requirements and the regulations do not apply in the same manner. 46 Fuel economy standards do impact the levels of one GHG—CO 2 —that is emitted from motor vehicles. But fuel economy standards do not set limits on emission levels of CO 2 or any other air pollutant, as do California's standards. Lacking that kind of regulation of emissions of an air pollutant, fuel economy standards are not “applicable Federal standards.” 46 The Supreme Court acknowledged this “overlap” between fuel economy and emission standards in Massachusetts v. EPA, 127 S. Ct. at 1438. (“[T]hat DOT sets mileage standards in no way licenses EPA to shirk its environmental responsibilities. EPA has been charged with protecting the public's `health' and `welfare.' 42 U.S.C. 7521(a)(1), a statutory obligation wholly independent of DOT's mandate to promote energy efficiency. See Energy Policy and Conservation Act, section 2(5), 89 Stat. 874, 42 U.S.C. 6201(5). The two obligations may overlap, but there is no reason to think the two agencies cannot both administer their obligations and yet avoid inconsistency.”) The difference between emission standards and fuel economy standards is highlighted by comparing the two sets of standards at issue here. California's greenhouse gas emission standards establish allowable grams per mile (“gpm”) levels for greenhouse gas emissions, including tailpipe emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and methane (CH 4 ) as well as emissions of CO 2 and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) related to operation of the air conditioning system. By regulating emissions of four different greenhouse gas pollutants, the standards do more than reduce tailpipe CO 2 emissions resulting from fuel combustion. They do not directly equate to miles per gallon fuel economy reductions. Fuel economy standards, on the other hand, directly control miles per gallon (“mpg”) fuel economy levels. CO 2 reductions will occur, but they are an expected indirect effect of improved fuel economy standards because the same technology that improves fuel economy effectively reduces CO 2 emissions. There is no doubt that a CAFE standard would clearly produce companion reductions in CO 2 as fuel economy improves, given the technology used to improve fuel economy. However, for the reasons described above EPA believes the better interpretation of section 209(b)(1)(A) is to look at whether the Federal standard is applicable to the same vehicles and air pollutants as the California standards, by considering whether they directly regulate the same vehicles and air pollutants. It is clear that a CAFE standard does not meet this test. While there is a large but non-identical overlap in effect between a CAFE standard and a GHG emission standard with respect to emissions of CO 2 , the CAFE standards do not set limits on emissions of CO 2 or any other GHG. There also remain important areas where there is no overlap at all with the California standards, including the regulation of greenhouse gas pollutants other than CO 2 . Instead of making an exception to its interpretation of “applicable Federal standards” for NHTSA's CAFE fuel economy standards, EPA believes it is more appropriate to apply its traditional interpretation, for all of the reasons discussed above. Therefore, EPA has determined that NHTSA's CAFE standards are not “applicable Federal standards” for purposes of this waiver criterion. 2. If EPA Did Consider CAFE Standards as “Applicable Federal Standards,” Are the CAFE Standards More Stringent Than California's Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards? Even if EPA were to take fuel economy standards into consideration as “applicable Federal standards,” opponents of the waiver have not met their burden of proof to demonstrate that California's protectiveness determination was arbitrary and capricious. No waiver opponent has demonstrated that existing CAFE standards are more stringent or more protective of the public health and welfare than California's greenhouse gas emission standards. EPA has consistently stated in prior waiver determinations that California's protectiveness determination must consider the “applicable Federal standards” in existence at the time of EPA's waiver decision. 47 Standards in existence at the time of a waiver decision have only included finalized emission standards that EPA has promulgated through its rulemaking process and pursuant to its Clean Air Act authority. 47 See e.g., Authorization of California's Under 25 Horsepower Utility Lawn and Garden Equipment Engine Exhaust Emission Standards (ULGE) (July 5, 1995) at 18. (“CARB's protectiveness determination must be judged on the standards that are in existence at the time EPA makes it authorization determination. However, as CARB correctly states, until EPA's rules become final no changed circumstances exist that affect CARB's protectiveness determination, and that it would be premature to make a protectiveness comparison with non-finalized federal standards.”) Applying that approach here, if EPA were to take NHTSA's fuel economy standards into account when reviewing California's protectiveness determination, our inquiry would be limited to those final fuel economy standards that are currently in existence at the time of the waiver decision. Although NHTSA is required by the EISA to promulgate more stringent fuel economy standards in the future, the only final fuel economy standard under EISA that is currently in existence is that for the 2011 model year. 48 Additionally, although EPA and the Department of Transportation (DOT) have issued a notice of intent to engage in a joint rulemaking, with NHTSA issuing fuel economy standards under the EISA for the 2012 through 2016 model years and EPA issuing greenhouse gas standards under the CAA for those same model years, those standards are neither proposed nor final at this time. 49 To consider CAFE standards that have been proposed or those standards that may be proposed would be speculative about what standards will be adopted, and EPA has consistently found it inappropriate to engage in that speculation with respect to either EPA's or California's future standards in prior waiver decisions. 48 74 FR 14196 (March 30, 2009). 49 74 FR 24007 (May 22, 2009). Further, it is reasonable to limit our consideration of “applicable Federal standards” to those final standards that are in existence, in light of the range of options that remain for California and EPA after a decision on this waiver. If federal greenhouse gas standards are promulgated in the future, and if such standards bring this determination into question, then EPA can revisit this decision at that time. The legislative history of section 209(b) makes clear that Congress considered section 209(b) as including the authority for EPA to withdraw a waiver if circumstances occur in the future that would make this appropriate: “Implicit in this provision is the right of the [Administrator] to withdraw the waiver at any time [if] after notice and an opportunity for public hearing he finds that the State of California no longer complies with the conditions of the waiver. 50 EPA need not decide now what action might be authorized or appropriate under section 209(b) if EPA adopts greenhouse gas emission standards in the future, as that is best decided when EPA takes such action. Additionally, the possibility that CARB may revise its standards is always present. Such a revision would be considered by EPA in a future waiver proceeding. EPA would then determine whether those changes are within-the-scope of its prior waiver or if a new, full waiver determination would need to be made, as would be required if California decided to increase the stringency of its greenhouse gas standards. 50 S. Rep. No. 403, 90th Cong. 1st Sess. (1967), at 33-34. California's greenhouse gas emission standards begin with the 2009 model year and increase in stringency through the 2016 model year. For that same time period, fuel economy standards only exist for the 2009 through 2011 model years. An appropriate comparison between California's greenhouse gas standards and NHTSA's fuel economy standards, then, would compare California's standards for the 2009 and later model years to NHTSA's fuel economy standards for the 2009 through 2011 model years. In his December 19, 2007 letter notifying California Governor Schwarzenegger that California's waiver request would be denied, former EPA Administrator Johnson stated that the EISA “establishes an aggressive standard of 35 miles per gallon for all 50 states, as opposed to the 33.8 miles per gallon in California and a patchwork of other states.” California prepared and documented a technical evaluation comparing federal fuel economy standards to its own standards. 51 Accounting for the differences between the two sets of standards, CARB attempted an “apples to apples” comparison of the standards and made several assumptions to that end. For its own standards, CARB assumed its current greenhouse gas regulations—at issue here—were in effect for the 2009 through 2016 model years and that those standards increased in stringency for the 2016 through 2020 model years (its “Pavley 2” standards that are not at issue in this waiver proceeding). Because EISA does not set standards, but directs NHTSA to issue standards that increase fuel economy to a minimum of 35 miles per gallon by the 2020 model year, CARB projected that the new CAFE standards would proportionally increase by 3.44 percent each year after the 2011 model year. Also, because EISA allows a fuel economy credit up to 1.2 miles per gallon for use of flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs) that can operate on high-blend ethanol, such as E85, based on manufacturer statements that they would produce large numbers of FFVs, CARB assumed maximum use of that credit. CARB also took into account differences in fleet mix in California and the other 49 states. To compare this range of years of the California greenhouse gas emission standards to the corresponding range of years of EISA fuel economy standards, CARB translated the miles per gallon standards from EISA into greenhouse gas emission rates. The rates of greenhouse gas emission reduction from each set of standards were then compared from 2009 through 2020. 52 CARB found that in California in 2016, its greenhouse gas emission standards would achieve 51.9 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emission reductions compared to 23.7 million metric tons from federal fuel economy standards. By 2020, CARB found 100.5 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emission reductions from its standards compared to 59.5 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emission reductions from the federal fuel economy standards. 53 Both sets of reductions follow a similar pattern because both sets of standards are relatively similar in stringency in the near-term (2009-2011), with California's standards ramping up in the mid-term (2012-2016), just as the proposed EISA standards begin to increase their stringency. While both sets of standards gain stringency in the long-term (2016 and beyond), California found that its standards are more stringent sooner and in the long-term and, furthermore, that its standards are more protective of its public health and welfare because they achieve greater greenhouse gas reductions. 51 California Air Resources Board, Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Reductions for the United States and Canada under U.S. CAFE Standards and California Air Resources Board Greenhouse Gas Regulations, February 25, 2008, available at http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ccms/reports/pavleycafe_reportfeb25_08.pdf. 52 The 2009 through 2020 model year standards are not a straightforward comparison of California's greenhouse gas standards to EISA standards because the years do not align. The California greenhouse gas standards at issue, here, are for the 2009 and later model years, whereas EISA was enacted in 2007 and mandates standards to reach 35 miles per gallon by the 2020 mode year, but as of yet have only been promulgated for the 2011 model year. The 2009 and 2010 MY federal fuel economy standards were pre-EISA standards. Neither California nor NHTSA has yet promulgated standards for the 2017-2020 model years: California greenhouse gas standards for those years are currently proposed in California (as “Pavley 2” standards), as are all the EISA standards from the 2012 through 2015 model years. 53 California Air Resources Board, Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Reductions for the United States and Canada under U.S. CAFE Standards and California Air Resources Board Greenhouse Gas Regulations, (February 25, 2008), at 13-14. EPA notes that this comparison requires speculation regarding what final CAFE standards will be promulgated by NHTSA for the 2012-2020 model years, and what final GHG standards may be promulgated by CARB for the 2017-2020 model years. If the comparison were truly between final, promulgated standards of California GHG-to-CAFE, it would compare California standards for the 2009 through 2016 model years to the lone NHTSA fuel economy standard for the 2011 model year, and the preexisting standards for the 2009-2010 model years. This highlights that the appropriate approach is to compare standards that are final as of the time of the waiver decision. However, California's approach indicates that its standards are more stringent than federal CAFE standards even if CAFE standards increased in the 2012 through 2016 model years. Therefore, this approach also would indicate that California's standards, reviewing only those standards that are final at this time, are more stringent in the aggregate. No commenter has presented evidence that questions CARB's claim that its greenhouse gas emission standards are more stringent than EISA. Most commenters opposing the waiver do not focus on the comparative stringency of the two sets of standards, but instead focus on EISA's mandate for more stringent fuel economy standards as undermining the currency of California's protectiveness determination or California's “need” for its greenhouse gas emission standards. For example, AIAM has argued that the increased stringency of CAFE standards due to the EISA removes the basis for California's protectiveness determination. 54 Similarly, the Alliance argues that “CARB erred in a fundamental way when it chose to ignore the impact of the federal CAFE standards generally and EISA's passage in specific on California's outdated protectiveness determination.” 55 These arguments assume that CAFE standards are “applicable Federal standards” and that non-final standards may be taken into consideration at the time of a waiver determination. As explained in detail above, those assumptions are not consistent with EPA's interpretation of the section 209(b)(1)(A) criterion. Notably though, neither argument presents a factually-based analysis of the stringency of California's greenhouse gas emission standards as compared to existing fuel economy standards that undermines California's protectiveness determination. 56 Such an analysis would be necessary for EPA to make a section 209(b)(1)(A) finding, if EPA were to depart from its traditional review of California's protectiveness determination and interpret “applicable Federal standards” to include NHTSA's fuel economy standards. As noted below, the Alliance points to an analysis of the relative stringency of the two sets of standards to find that: “the combined vehicle-fuel program created by the EISA would result in greater life-cycle GHG reductions than the state standards that are the subject of this proceeding by the end of the decade.” That analysis, however, is flawed for the purpose of this waiver consideration because it speculates as to NHTSA standards that are not yet finalized, or even proposed. Additionally, it infers that California's standards are more protective until 2017. 57 54 Association of International Automobile Manufacturers, Inc., EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-9005 at 13-14. 55 Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, EPA, HQ-OAR-2006-0173-8994 at 20. 56 The Alliance's comments received April 6, 2009 state: “It should be noted that * * * it is also true that the fuel economy improvements required by the California GHG standards are more stringent, overall, for the industry than the CAFE standards in many jurisdictions in which the state GHG standards would apply compared to the CAFE standards. CARB does not disagree with this point. See CARB, Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Reductions for the United States and Canada Under U.S. CAFE Standards and California's Air Resources Board Greenhouse Gas Regulations: An Enhanced Assessment, at 8 (February 25, 2008).” Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-8994 at 20, note 4. 57 Id. Based on the above, and recognizing that federal fuel economy standards are not “applicable Federal standards,” EPA notes that even if the stringency of CAFE standards are considered in context of the section 209(b)(1)(A) waiver criterion, the opponents of the waiver have not presented sufficient evidence to show that California's protectiveness determination is arbitrary and capricious. No commenter has shown that California's determination was arbitrary and capricious in finding that NHTSA's fuel economy standards are not in the aggregate more protective of human health and welfare than California's greenhouse gas standards, whether one considers just the CARB and NHTSA standards that are currently finalized, or one considers possible future standards that either agency might adopt. B. How Does EPA Evaluate Impacts on Other States? Several comments have suggested that EPA should consider the impacts of California's greenhouse gas standards on other states. 58 At present time, thirteen other states and the District of Columbia have already adopted California's greenhouse gas emission standards pursuant to section 177 of the Act. 59 These comments raise two objections concerning other states adoption of California's greenhouse gas emission standards. First, these comments suggest that state-by-state compliance with each state's adopted set of California standards presents an unworkable compliance “patchwork” for automobile manufacturers. 60 Second, and related, the comments suggest that enforcement of California's greenhouse gas standards in other states will lead to “environmental disbenefits” in those states. 61 EPA takes no position on the merits of either argument because these arguments are outside the scope of our section 209(b)(1) waiver criteria. EPA's evaluation of California's waiver request is limited to the State of California. 62 To the extent that these comments raise issues regarding the environmental impacts of consumer shifts within California they are evaluated below. 58 Association of International Automobile Manufacturers, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-7176.11, p. 1-2, 24-25; National Automobile Dealers Association, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-7176.1, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-8956; NERA Economic Consulting and Sierra Research, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-9053.1. 59 New York (6 NY Code, Rules & Regs., Part 218-8.3), Massachusetts (310 Code of Mass. Regs. 7.40(2)(a)(6)), Maryland (Code of Md. Regs. § 26.11.34), Vermont (Vt Air Poll. Ctrl Regs., Subchapter XI, 5-1106(a)(5)), Maine (06 Code of Maine Rules § 127), Connecticut (Conn. Admin. Code § 22a-174-36b), Arizona (18 A.A.C. 2), New Jersey (NJ Admin. Code §§ 7:27-29.13), New Mexico (20 NM Admin. Code, Chapter 2, Part 88), Oregon (Or. Admin. Rules § 340-257), Pennsylvania (36 Pa.B. 7424), Rhode Island (RI Air Poll. Ctrl Reg. 37.2.3), Washington (Wash. Admin. Code § 173.423-090(2), and Washington, DC (DC Law 17-0151) have adopted California's greenhouse gas emission standards. See also http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_states/vehicle_ghg_standard.cfm. Four more states, including Florida, Colorado, Utah, and Montana are poised to adopt the standards. 60 National Automobile Dealers Association, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-7176.1, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-8956. 61 Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-8994 at 22. 62 These states and the District of Columbia have acted pursuant to section 177 of the Clean Air Act, which is not relevant to this proceeding, and that any issues commenters have regarding section 177 and state compliance with that statutory provision, is not appropriate for this proceeding. EPA notes that the language of section 209(b(1) refers to the “State” in several instances but in no instance does it refer to “states” or other areas of the country. C. Is California's Protectiveness Determination Arbitrary and Capricious? 1. Based on EPA's Traditional Analysis, Is California's Protectiveness Determination Arbitrary and Capricious? As described above, EPA's traditional analysis has been to evaluate California's protectiveness determination by comparing the new California standards to applicable EPA emission standards for the same pollutants. 63 In the context of greenhouse gas emissions this analysis is simple. EPA has already determined that California was not arbitrary and capricious in its determination that the pre-existing California standards for light-duty vehicles and trucks, known as LEV II, is at least as protective as comparable Federal standards, known as the Tier II standards. 64 In the context of the ZEV proceeding, EPA conducted its traditional analysis to compare California's newly enacted ZEV standards to a similar lack of applicable Federal standards. At that time, California found, and EPA deemed reasonable, that the addition of the ZEV standards did not render California's LEV II program, for which a waiver had previously been granted, less protective than the Federal Tier II program. In addressing the Alliance's petition for reconsideration with respect to this issue, EPA stated that “the words `standards' and `in the aggregate' in section 209(b)(1)(A) * * * . at minimum, include all the standards relating to the control of emissions for a category of vehicles ( e.g. passenger cars, etc.) subject to CARB regulation, particularly where the standards are designed to respond to the same type of pollution.” 65 63 See CAA section 209(b)(2). 64 71 FR 78190 (December 28, 2006) and Decision Document for Waiver of Federal Preemption for California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Standards (December 21, 2006); 68 FR 19811 (April 22, 2003) and Decision Document for Waiver of Federal Preemption for Low Emission Vehicle Amendments (LEV II)(April 11, 2003). 65 EPA's August 13, 2008 Response to Petition for Administrative Reconsideration of EPA's ZEV Waiver Decision (through the 2011 Model Year) published on December 28, 2006, at 3. California's greenhouse gas standards are also an addition to its existing LEV II program. Since the greenhouse gas standards add onto California standards that have already been determined to be as least as protective, and since there are no applicable federal greenhouse gas emission standards, the point of comparison, here, is between California's greenhouse gas standards and an absence of EPA greenhouse gas emission standards. Comparing an absence of EPA greenhouse gas emission standards to the enacted set of California greenhouse gas emission standards provides a clearly rational basis for California's determination that the California greenhouse gas emission program will be more protective of human health and welfare than non-existent applicable federal standards. California directly addressed this traditional analysis in its finding that “[t]here are no comparable federal regulations that specifically require the control of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles.” 66 66 Id. at 13. EPA received comments suggesting that this type of traditional comparison is inappropriate, even “impossible,” in the absence of Federal greenhouse gas emission standards. 67 Such an argument is contrary to legislative intent and EPA's practice. 68 This is not the first time that California has enacted emission standards in the absence of Federal standards; in fact, California's pioneering role in setting mobile source emission standards is one reason the waiver provision exists. 69 Given that section 209(b)(1) is designed to allow California to have standards more stringent than Federal standards, it would make little sense to use this provision to prevent California from having such standards where the Federal government has not yet acted. Moreover, in prior decisions EPA has found that such protectiveness determinations by California in the absence of Federal standards were reasonable. 70 Indeed, California standards may be most clearly “at least as protective” when they are compared to the absence of Federal emission standards. This commenter further points to the “tremendous level of current federal activity” as the primary reason why “it is impossible for EPA to evaluate how the GHG Regulations will compare with federal regulation in this field.” While EPA has announced its intention to propose greenhouse gas emission standards, EPA has consistently stated that CARB's protectiveness determination must consider the Federal standards in existence at the time of EPA's waiver decision. 71 67 Alliance of International Automobile Manufacturers, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-1455 at 3; Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-1297 at 2, 5-7, 11-12; National Automobile Dealers Association, EPA-HQ-OAR-0173-1671 at 3. 68 The waiver provision allows California to “act as a testing agent for various types of control and the country as a whole will be a beneficiary of this research” (113 Cong. Rec. 32478 [1967]); “act as a laboratory for innovation” ( MEMA I at 1095). See Decision Document for Authorization of State Standards for Utility Lawn and Garden Equipment (ULGE) (July 5, 1995). 69 California first began regulating motor vehicle emissions in 1957, nearly a decade before Congress enacted the Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control Act of 1965, which enabled a federal program. 70 See e.g., Authorization of California's Under 25 Horsepower Utility Lawn and Garden Equipment Engine Exhaust Emission Standards (ULGE) (July 5, 1995). 71 Id. at 18. Furthermore, waiting for future federal regulation would be contrary to the purpose of the section 209(b) waiver provision—effectively stalling California's ability to enforce its own program. CARB's protectiveness determination was made on September 23, 2004, at which time there were no federal greenhouse gas standards. CARB's determination, then, correctly compared its standards to the absence of federal emission standards. Since that time, there has been no relevant intervening “applicable Federal standard.” 72 Although AIAM points to the Massachusetts v. EPA decision and Executive Order 13,432, neither of those documents, nor any subsequent actions by the Federal government, 73 constitute final EPA regulation of greenhouse gas emissions for new motor vehicles that could be used as a comparable standard in this waiver proceeding. 74 The current lack of federal greenhouse gas emission standards maintains the factual basis for CARB's September 23, 2004 protectiveness determination. As noted above, if and when greenhouse gas standards are promulgated by EPA in the future, and if such standards bring this determination into question, then EPA can revisit this waiver decision at that time. Accordingly, applying its traditional comparative analysis, opponents of the waiver have not shown flaw or lack of reason in California's protectiveness determination; and we cannot find that California's protectiveness determination is arbitrary and capricious. 72 See section IV.A., regarding “applicable Federal standards.” 73 The Alliance similarly argues that EISA's mandate for reformed CAFE standards renders California's protectiveness determination “obsolete” or “stale.” Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-8994 at 21. 74 Likewise, EPA and DOT's “Notice of Upcoming Joint Rulemaking To Establish Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards” does not include any final standards which EPA can take into account as an “applicable Federal standards.”74 FR 24007 (May 22, 2009). 2. Is California's Protectiveness Determination Arbitrary and Capricious Based on the Real-World In-Use Effects of California's Greenhouse Gas Standards? EPA received comments suggesting the need for and appropriateness of applying an alternative interpretation of section 209(b)(1)(A), based on an inquiry into the in-use effect of inclusion of greenhouse gas standards upon the broader motor vehicle emissions program. 75 EPA does not take a position as to the validity of the suggestion that the type of numerical analysis discussed above is insufficient. Noting the legislative history and text of section 209(b)(2), EPA would need a concrete factual basis to examine the in-use effect of California's greenhouse gas standards on its broader LEV II program as compared to the Federal Tier II program. We need not take a position on that matter because to the extent that the in-use effects of the greenhouse gas standards are considered, the waiver opponents do not meet their burden to show that CARB's analysis of the effects is unreasonable. 75 Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-1297 at 5-12, and EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-8994 at 22. These comments suggest that consumer effects will cause California's broader LEV II motor vehicle emissions program to be less protective than the Federal Tier II emissions program. 76 In support of this analysis, the Alliance commissioned a study from Sierra Research, NERA Economic Consulting, and Air Improvement Resource, Inc. entitled “Effectiveness of the California Light Duty Vehicle Regulations as Compared to Federal Regulations,” which was submitted to EPA on June 15, 2007 (“June 2007 AIR/NERA/Sierra Study”). 77 CARB specifically responded to the June 2007 Study in comments it submitted to the docket on July 24, 2007 (“CARB's July Comments”). 78 Next, the Alliance submitted a response to California's response prepared by NERA Economic Consulting and Sierra Research (“October 2007 NERA/Sierra Study”). 79 Most recently, the Alliance submitted another study produced by NERA Economic Consulting and Sierra Research entitled “Impacts of the California Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards on Motor Vehicle Sales” (“April 2009 NERA/Sierra Study”). 80 On this issue, the Alliance also refers to a study published by the Society of Automotive Engineers entitled “Evaluation of California Greenhouse Gas Standards and Federal Independence and Security Act—Part 2: CO 2 and GHG Impacts” (“SAE Study”). 81 At the same time, Air Improvement Resource, Inc. has independently submitted comments which include its “Evaluation of California Greenhouse Gas Standards and Federal Energy Independence and Security Act” (“March 2009 AIR Study”). 82 76 Id. 77 Sierra Research, Inc., EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-1447, 1447.1-.5. 78 California Air Resources Board, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-3601. 79 NERA Economic Consulting, Inc. and Sierra Research, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-3651. 80 NERA Economic Consulting and Sierra Research, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-9053. 81 Thomas L. Darlington and Dennis F. Kahlbaum, Evaluation of California Greenhouse Gas Standards and Federal Independence and Security Act—Part 2: CO 2 and GHG Impacts, SAE Paper No. 2008-01-1853 (2008), Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-8994 at 20, note 44. 82 Air Improvement Resources, Inc., EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-13662. The Alliance has raised this issue before, in its request for reconsideration of EPA's waiver for California's ZEV standards. 83 In that reconsideration, the Alliance referred to the same June 2007 AIR/NERA/Sierra Study, saying that the California program, as a whole, was not at least as protective of public health and welfare as comparable federal standards. EPA denied the Alliance's request, in particular because the June 2007 AIR/NERA/Sierra Study was produced under the assumption that California's ZEV standards would be in effect until at least 2020 and that California's greenhouse gas standards would also be in effect. As EPA had only granted the ZEV waiver through the 2011 model year and had not granted the greenhouse gas waiver, EPA found that the study was not based upon the proper assumptions for comparing California's standards to federal standards. EPA stated at that time: “[T]o the extent that the real-world emission effects of CARB's ZEV program (aggregated with its LEV II standards) are relevant, if at all, the Alliance fails to submit sufficiently focused information regarding these programs and their associated effect on emissions. Thus, no basis exists to reconsider EPA's December 2006 waiver decision based on the NERA/Sierra/Air report.” 84 83 Decision Document for Waiver of Federal Preemption for California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Standards (December 21, 2006) and EPA's August 13, 2008 Response to Petition for Administrative Reconsideration of EPA's ZEV Waiver Decision (through the 2011 Model Year) published on December 28, 2006. 84 EPA's August 13, 2008 Response to Petition for Administrative Reconsideration of EPA's ZEV Waiver Decision (through the 2011 Model Year) published on December 28, 2006, at 17-18. That denial further opined: “In light of the language of section 209(b)(1)(A) and associated legislative history, it may only be necessary to examine the applicable emission limits in determining California's ability to set more stringent standards and pursue pioneering efforts (which may or may not lead to higher costs and associated fleet turnover concerns) under section 209(b)(1)(A). Given the legislative history * * * . EPA would need a concrete basis to examine the “real world” or in-use effect of California's standards in comparison to applicable federal standards (in this case, a comparison of LEV II + ZEV versus Tier 2). To require CARB to justify its standards and policy goals within the context of the protectiveness criteria based on waiver opponents' complicated and controversial models that apply assumptions that are themselves controversial, and where there are no corresponding federal standards, raises questions about whether demanding this type of review conflicts with Congress' intent to allow California `the broadest possible discretion' in fashioning its own motor vehicle program without EPA second-guessing California's policy choices.” Id. at 12. In evaluating its greenhouse gas standards, California's protectiveness determination went beyond a simple numerical comparison of its greenhouse gas standards to non-existent federal greenhouse gas standards. Its protectiveness determination was also based upon its own analysis of the impact of its greenhouse gas standards on its larger program. California found that its new greenhouse gas standards would yield not only reductions in greenhouse gas emissions but also a net reduction in criteria pollutant emissions. 85 Therefore, to the extent this analysis is even relevant for an EPA waiver review opponents must present “clear and compelling” evidence challenging the reasonableness of this determination and California's analysis. 85 California Air Resources Board, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-0010.107 at 15 (“Taking into account the penetration of 2009 and later vehicles meeting the new standard, the proposed regulation will reduce greenhouse gas emission by an estimated 87,700 CO 2 -equivelent tons per day statewide in 2020 and by 155,200 CO 2 -equivelent tons per day in 2030. This translates into an 18 percent overall reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from the light duty fleet in 2020 and a 27 percent overall reduction in 2030; Taking into account the penetration of 2009 and later vehicles meeting the new standard, the proposed regulation will reduce upstream emissions of non-methane organic gases (NMOG) by 4.6 tons per day statewide in 2020 and 7.9 tons per day statewide in 2030, and will reduce upstream emissions of NO X by 1.4 tons per day statewide in 2020 and 2.3 tons per day statewide in 2030. The regulation will provide a criteria pollutant benefit even taking into account possible pollutant increases due to consumer response.”). The June 2007 AIR/NERA/Sierra Study prepared for the Alliance presents a finding that its results “indicate that the California Program, in the aggregate, is less protective of public health than the Federal Program with respect to emissions of ozone precursors and several other criteria pollutants.” The study undertook consumer choice modeling to evaluate the effect of the California greenhouse gas emission standards on the new motor vehicle fleet and vehicle miles travelled (VMT) and compare those effects with fleet and VMT conditions were the Federal Program in effect in California. Its results showed that compliance with the California greenhouse gas standards would raise the cost of new motor vehicles in California, which would then lead to higher new vehicle prices, decreased new vehicle sales, increased retention of used vehicles (“scrappage effect”), increased fuel economy which would lead to increased VMT (“rebound effect”), and, finally, increased emissions of ozone precursors and several other criteria air pollutants. On July 24, 2007, CARB submitted a response to comments received by EPA which specifically addressed the June 2007 AIR/NERA/Sierra Study. 86 First, CARB insisted that such a study should have been presented for consideration during California's rulemaking process and not later during EPA's consideration of California's waiver request. Second, CARB substantively responded to the June 2007 AIR/NERA/Sierra Study and claimed that its protectiveness determination was proper. In sum, CARB objected that the June 2007 AIR/NERA/Sierra Study is inappropriate because it is not focused on the relative stringency of emission standards, but instead presents “a series of speculative events driven by disputed and unsupported compliance costs that would supposedly result—contrary to experience with previous reduction and automotive regulatory measures—in a substantial reduction in new motor vehicle sales (fleet turnover); and * * * Californians' theoretical desire to drive even more miles than already projected to reach increasingly distant destinations in the face of increasing traffic congestion (rebound effect).” 87 CARB further critiqued several points of AIR/NERA/Sierra's analysis, including what it viewed as “grossly overstated * * * highly speculative cost estimates,” modeling errors, lack of methodological detail, and faulty assumptions. CARB asserted that its staff reviewed similar analyses and had provided its own analyses that are “more reasonable and historically reliable” and “lead to dramatically different outputs.” 86 California Air Resources Board, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-3601. 87 California Air Resources Board, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-3601 at 8. NERA/Sierra responded to that critique on October 29, 2007. 88 That document includes specific responses to criticisms raised by CARB and generally defends the integrity of its analyses. NERA/Sierra affirmed its conclusions that CARB's protectiveness determination is not fully supported because it understates or ignores costs, does not consider the combined effects of the ZEV mandate and GHG requirements, and does not assure compliance through technological implementation. As to the specific modeling issues raised by CARB, NERA/Sierra maintained the correctness of its modeling assumptions and estimations with regard to technology cost, fleet turnover, rebound effect, and pollutant emission effect. 88 NERA Economic Consulting, Inc. and Sierra Research, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-3651. NERA/Sierra also submitted an additional study on April 6, 2009, presenting many of the same methodological assertions noted above. Notably, though, this study is less methodologically clear: It does not quantify scrappage or its effects on emissions, assumes technology is applied only to meet federal CAFE standards (and not beyond that level of stringency), and assumes that further compliance is achieved through fleet mix changes combined with restrictions on vehicle availability. It is not clear whether and how ZEV program requirements are included in this study. Most importantly, though, the April 2009 NERA/Sierra Study is outside the scope of this proceeding; it presents “the effects on motor vehicle sales of the California Standards, assuming that they are implemented in the 13 states that have adopted California's standards.” 89 That is, the April 2009 NERA/Sierra Study seeks to present the effect of California's greenhouse gas standards on new motor vehicle sales in those 13 states. This is inappropriate because the waiver inquiry is limited to the State of California (as noted above) and, even if this study had been limited to California, it would still be inadequate because it does not connect its findings with regard to depressed vehicle sales to increased criteria pollutant emissions. 89 NERA Economic Consulting and Sierra Research, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-9053 at E-1. Air Improvement Resources, Inc. (“AIR”), who had originally participated in the June 2007 AIR/NERA/Sierra Study but submitted comment independently on April 6, 2009, evaluated California's greenhouse gas standards as compared to EISA “standards.” As noted above, this evaluation is not relevant to EPA's section 209(b)(1)(A) inquiry because EISA “standards” are not “applicable Federal standards” for the purpose of our waiver inquiry. Nor have any fuel economy standards been promulgated beyond the 2011 model year. Those underlying inadequacies render this study unpersuasive, if not entirely irrelevant. However, it is interesting to note that the primary finding of this study is that “the California program has lower GHG emissions until about 2016-2018.” 90 AIR also included as an attachment an SAE Paper evaluating impacts on new vehicle fuel economy from California's greenhouse gas standards and EISA “standards.” The finding of this paper is that California's greenhouse gas standards will lead to higher fuel economy than EISA “standards” until the 2017 model year. 91 The findings of both reports are based on inconsistent assumptions that California's greenhouse gas standards will not become more stringent after the 2016 model year, (because this waiver request ends with the 2016 model year standards) but the federal fuel economy standards will become more stringent even though there are not yet any federal fuel economy standards past the 2011 model year. As stated above, EPA is not including fuel economy standards in its consideration of “applicable Federal standards.” But, even if EPA were to engage in that analysis, it can only consider standards in existence at the time of a waiver decision, as stated above. Since no federal fuel economy standards exist yet beyond the 2011 model year, EPA will not make predictions about later year fuel economy standards in order to take them into account here. 90 Air Improvement Resources, Inc., EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-13662 at 2. Yet this analysis presumes the promulgation of fuel economy standards that have not yet been promulgated and does not accordingly presume the promulgation of further greenhouse gas standards by California, despite the fact that the Pavley law in California makes such further standards a significant possibility. 91 Air Improvement Resources, Inc., EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173-13662. As discussed below, EPA has evaluated both sets of analyses (from CARB and NERA/Sierra) and makes note of the following with regard to (1) fleet turnover/delayed scrappage, (2) the rebound effect, and (3) upstream emissions impacts. 92 92 EPA's role in reviewing California's waiver request is limited to finding whether opponents have shown that California's protectiveness determination is arbitrary and capricious. In making its protectiveness determination, CARB included these analyses and the studies noted above have included similar analyses based on diverging assumptions. EPA has evaluated these analyses to demonstrate that CARB's protectiveness determination was not arbitrary and capricious. This evaluation is separate and distinct from any analysis that EPA would conduct in promulgating its own regulation. Nothing in this evaluation should be construed as an endorsement of CARB's or any other analysis or any particular assumption they rely upon. a. Fleet Turnover/Delayed Scrappage The Alliance argues that California's greenhouse gas standards will cause delayed fleet turnover and, thus, increase criteria air pollutant emissions. Delayed fleet turnover results when the prices of new vehicles increase, causing prices of existing vehicles to increase as well. A consumer's decision to scrap an existing vehicle depends upon the trade-off between the value of existing vehicle in its working condition and its scrappage value. Rising prices of existing vehicles lead some consumers to decide to delay scrapping their vehicles. An older vehicle stock on the road results in an increase in criteria air pollution. In conducting its analysis on consumer behavior impacts in its June 2007 study, NERA/Sierra/AIR evaluated the combined impacts of the California greenhouse gas emission standards and the Zero Emission Vehicle (“ZEV”) rules. It is difficult to discern the total cost per vehicle over various model years of the greenhouse gas versus the ZEV portion of the rules and, therefore, determine how much of the consumer behavior impacts are appropriately attributable to the greenhouse gas standards. Thus, it is difficult to undertake a direct comparison of the NERA/Sierra/Air and CARB studies. According to NERA/Sierra/AIR, as a result of price increases associated with the greenhouse gas and ZEV rules in 2020, they project that new vehicle sales in California will fall by approximately 130,000 vehicles. In addition, the number of vehicles in the fleet prior to the effective date of the ZEV and GHG regulations ( i.e., pre-2009 model year vehicles) is more than 250,000 greater in 2020 than would otherwise be the case under a federal program. CARB, on the other hand, only looks at the economic impacts of the California greenhouse gas standards, independent of the ZEV requirements. Without the ZEV requirements, CARB estimates that California's greenhouse gas standards will result in an increase in new vehicle prices of approximately $1,000 per vehicle ( i.e., $1,064 for passenger vehicles, small trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and $1,029 for certain medium-duty trucks/SUVs). 93 Using a consumer choice model, CARBITS, CARB estimated new vehicle sales from California standards would increase in the near-term, resulting in accelerated fleet turnover, but see declines in fleet turnover in the longer-term, with a loss of vehicle sales of roughly 97,000 in 2020. By 2020, CARB estimates that lost vehicle sales would lead to delayed fleet turnover. The potential increase in ozone precursor emission in California in out years ( i.e., 2020) from delayed fleet turnover is about 2.5 tons/day. CARB estimates that those “disbenefits” of fleet turnover delay are more than offset by faster turnover in the early years of the California standard and reductions in emissions associated with fuel production. The more recent April 2009 NERA/Sierra study projects the impacts of the California GHG standards on new motor vehicle sales in the thirteen states that have adopted the California standards. Since the study only examines the impacts on new vehicle sales, it does not provide estimates of ozone precursor impacts of California standards. 93 California Air Resources Board, EPA-HQ-OAR-2006-0173.0010.116. b. The “Rebound Effect” The Alliance contends that criteria air pollutant emissions will increase due to the so-called vehicle “rebound effect.” The rebound effect for vehicle fuel economy is defined as the increase in vehicle travel resulting from a decrease in the fuel cost per vehicle miles as a consequence of an increase in fuel economy. It is projected that increasing fuel efficiency lowers the effective cost of driving to the consumer, which results in an increase in vehicle usage (holding all other factors constant). NERA developed their own econometric estimate of the California rebound effect—17%—based on California vehicle inspection data from 1983-2003. In addition, NERA re-estimated a CARB-sponsored study on the rebound effect by Small & Van Dender and NERA found the long-run rebound effect in California to be roughly 13%. In contrast, CARB used two types of analysis to evaluate the impact of the proposed regulations on changes in vehicle miles traveled: Econometric work by Small and Van Dender and travel demand modeling (Southern California Association of Governor's (SCAG)). The study by Small & Van Dender allowed the rebound effect to vary based on changes in income and congestion. In addition, the Small & Van Dender study also analyzed the impact of higher vehicle costs on VMT. Based on the econometric modeling, projected California incomes and transportation conditions, Small and Van Dender estimated a dynamic rebound effect of approximately 3% for the State of California in 2020. A major difference between the NERA and Small and Van Dender study was the way nominal income was converted to real income. NERA tried to approximate state cost of living adjustments, but had to modify metropolitan cost of living adjustments; Small and Van Dender used the national consumer price index. Based on the difference in income calculation, NERA found that income was no longer statistically significant in explaining changes in the rebound effect. Therefore, they removed this term from their model. California also used the Southern California Association of Governor's (SCAG) travel demand model to project changes in demand travel based on declining vehicle operating costs in the context of the transportation system in the L.A. South Coast Air Basin. In contrast to the econometric study, the travel demand modeling takes into account the available transportation infrastructure. CARB examined the emission impacts of changes in both the amount and the speed of motor vehicle travel, relative to the cost of gasoline per mile traveled. Based on the vehicle classes affected by the proposed GHG regulation, the results from SCAG indicate an elasticity of VMT to fuel cost ( i.e., a rebound effect) of roughly 4 percent in 2020. c. Upstream Emissions Impacts California's greenhouse gas standards also will influence the amount of fuel going through the petroleum marketing and distribution infrastructure in California. This, in turn, will reduce the “upstream” criteria air pollutants from transportation, spills, and other events associated with the infrastructure. There were large differences between the CARB and NERA/Sierra estimates of upstream emissions. NERA, focusing on fuel delivery trucks and transit distances, characterized CARB's estimates as significantly flawed. However, both estimated upstream emission reductions of ROG and NO X , with CARB estimating a 6 ton per day reduction and NERA estimating a 1.1-1.5 ton per day reduction. The table below presents the rivaling estimates presented by the CARB and NERA/Sierra analyses. CARB NERA Fleet Turnover/Scrappage Effect Accelerated fleet turnover in near-term; smaller delayed fleet turnover in out years ( e.g., 2020). Delayed fleet turnover in near term; larger delayed fleet turnover in out years ( e.g., 2020). Rebound Effect 3% in 2020 17% in 2003, 13% in 2007. Upstream Emissions 6 tons/day reduction in ROG+NOx 1.1-1.5 tons/day reduction in ROG+NOx. Additionally, as with our analysis of the AIR/NERA/Sierra analysis in the context of the ZEV waiver reconsideration, we note that the study included a presumption that the ZEV standards would be in effect until at least 2020, and that this assumption appears to have a significant effect on other assumptions in the analysis. However, EPA explicitly declined to approve its waiver for California's ZEV standards beyond the 2011 model year, based in part on concerns that echoed comments from the Alliance. This makes the AIR/NERA/Sierra analysis an insufficient analysis to base a denial of California's waiver request. In evaluating the studies prepared by AIR/NERA/Sierra in light of California's protectiveness determination, EPA takes important note of CARB's response. As stated above, while CARB disagrees that these studies are properly before EPA in the waiver proceeding, it points out that even if it is proper for EPA to consider the AIR/NERA/Sierra studies, they do not provide a basis for finding that California's protectiveness determination was arbitrary and capricious. CARB maintains that the Alliance has made no attempt to show that CARB's analyses are irrational, which CARB states waiver opponents must make given the “arbitrary and capricious” standard. EPA agrees that to make a section 209(b)(1)(A) finding, it is not enough for waiver opponents to provide competing analyses that they claim are based on a rational set of assumptions. Rather, they must show that California's analysis, or the assumptions California relied on to support its protectiveness determination were arbitrary and capricious. Competing analyses, each based on rational assumptions, are not sufficient to deny a waiver. 94 94 EPA's August 13, 2008 Response to Petition for Administrative Reconsideration of EPA's ZEV Waiver Decision (through the 2011 Model Year) published on December 28, 2006, at 17, note 25. As previously stated, EPA does not need to decide the validity of the suggestion that the traditional numerical analysis is insufficient and that EPA must also consider the in-use effects of the standards. Given the legislative history and text of section 209(b)(2), EPA would need a concrete factual basis to examine the in-use effect of California's greenhouse gas standards on its broader LEV II program as compared to the Federal Tier II program. We need not take a position on that matter because the waiver opponents do not meet their burden to show that CARB's analysis of the in-use effects is arbitrary and capricious. 95 Rather, they present rivaling analyses—each making different assumptions so that the differences in findings can be reduced to differences in assumptions. EPA finds that the Alliance has not met its burden of proof that the greenhouse gas regulations undermine California's previous LEV II and ZEV protectiveness determinations or that California was arbitrary and capricious in its greenhouse gas protectiveness determination. 95 To the extent that an analysis of the in-use effects of California's greenhouse gas standards may be appropriate, then such analysis properly includes consideration of the upstream emission reduction impacts identified and linked to the standards. A holistic examination of the in-use effects of a regulation should naturally include those effects that have a plausible connection to the standards, including such consequences as indirect upstream emission reductions. The March 6, 2008 Denial stated that California may otherwise have independent authority to regulate stationary sources and therefore there was no basis to include emission reductions from such sources as part of a mobile source rulemaking. However, EPA believes that the issue under section 209(b)(1)(A) is whether the indirect reductions of ozone pollutants from stationary sources created by the greenhouse gas emission standards for motor vehicles, can reasonably be considered by California in its determination that its standards are as protective of public health and welfare as applicable federal standards. Given that the effects are reasonably related to the regulations, if it is appropriate to consider in-use effects then it was not arbitrary and capricious for California to include such effects in this analysis. EPA, therefore, finds that opponents of the waiver have not presented clear and compelling evidence that CARB was arbitrary and capricious in finding that the real-world effect of its standards “in the aggregate” would not lead to greater emissions of pollutants than the federal program. D. Section 209(b)(1)(A) Conclusion Based on the record before me, I cannot find that CARB was arbitrary and capricious in its finding that the California motor vehicle emission standards including the greenhouse gas standards are, in the aggregate, at least as protective of public health and welfare as applicable Federal standards. V. Does California Need Its Standards To Meet Compelling and Extraordinary Conditions? Under section 209(b)(1)(B) of the Act, I cannot grant a waiver if I find that California “does not need such State standards to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions.” EPA has traditionally interpreted this provision as considering whether California needs a separate motor vehicle program to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions. However in the March 6, 2008 Denial, EPA limited this interpretation to California's motor vehicle standards that are designed to address local or regional air pollution problems. EPA determined that the traditional interpretation was not appropriate for standards designed to address a global air pollution problem and its effects and that it was appropriate to address such standards separately from the remainder of the program. EPA then proceeded to find that California did not need such standards to meet compelling and extraordinary conditions. The interpretation adopted in the March 6, 2008 Denial is now before me for reconsideration. A. Basis of March 6, 2008 Denial In the March 6, 2008 Denial, EPA provided its reasoning for changing its long-standing interpretation of this provision, as it pertains to California standards designed to address global air pollution. EPA described its long-standing interpretation in some detail, stating that: Under thi [Text truncated at 120,000 characters. The full text is on the page linked above.] --- Source: Frix Law Library, https://www.frixlaw.com/law-library/documents/fr%3AE9-15943. Public record. Not legal advice.