# Partial Grant and Partial Denial of Clean Air Act Waiver Application Submitted by Growth Energy To Increase the Allowable Ethanol Content of Gasoline to 15 Percent; Decision of the Administrator > Briefs, arguments, decisions, and more. URL: https://www.frixlaw.com/law-library/documents/fr%3A2010-27432 ## Record - **Collection:** Federal Register - **Document type:** Notice - **Published:** November 4, 2010 - **Citation:** 75 FR 68094 ## Text ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211; FRL-9215-5] Partial Grant and Partial Denial of Clean Air Act Waiver Application Submitted by Growth Energy To Increase the Allowable Ethanol Content of Gasoline to 15 Percent; Decision of the Administrator AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency. ACTION: Notice of partial waiver decision. SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is partially granting Growth Energy's waiver request application submitted under section 211(f)(4) of the Clean Air Act. This partial waiver allows fuel and fuel additive manufacturers to introduce into commerce gasoline that contains greater than 10 volume percent ethanol and no more than 15 volume percent ethanol (E15) for use in certain motor vehicles if certain conditions are fulfilled. We are partially approving the waiver for and allowing the introduction into commerce of E15 for use only in model year 2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, which includes passenger cars, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles. We are denying the waiver for introduction of E15 for use in model year 2000 and older light-duty motor vehicles, as well as all heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles, highway and off-highway motorcycles, and nonroad engines, vehicles, and equipment. The Agency is deferring a decision on the applicability of a waiver to model year 2001 through 2006 light-duty motor vehicles until additional test data, currently under development, is available. ADDRESSES: EPA has established a docket for this action under Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211. All documents and public comments in the docket are listed on the http://www.regulations.gov Web site. Publicly available docket materials are available either electronically through http://www.regulations.gov or in hard copy at the Air and Radiation Docket in the EPA Headquarters Library, EPA West Building, Room 3334, 1301 Constitution Ave., NW., Washington, DC. The Public Reading Room is open from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, excluding holidays. The telephone number for the Reading Room is (202) 566-1744. The Air and Radiation Docket and Information Center's Web site is http://www.epa.gov/oar/docket.html . The electronic mail (e-mail) address for the Air and Radiation Docket is: a-and-r-Docket@epa.gov , the telephone number is (202) 566-1742 and the fax number is (202) 566-9744. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Robert Anderson, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, Mailcode: 6405J, Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW., Washington, DC 20460; telephone number: (202) 343-9718; fax number: (202) 343-2800; e-mail address: Anderson.Robert@epa.gov. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Table of Contents I. Executive Summary • MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles • Durability/Long-Term Exhaust Emissions • Immediate Exhaust Emissions • Evaporative Emissions • Materials Compatibility • Drivability and Operability • MY2000 and Older Light-Duty Motor Vehicles • MY2001-2006 Light-Duty Motor Vehicles • Nonroad Engines, Vehicles, and Equipment (Nonroad Products) • Heavy-Duty Gasoline Engines and Vehicles • Highway and Off-Highway Motorcycles • Conditions on Today's Partial Waiver • Misfueling Mitigation Measures Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) II. Introduction A. Statutory Background B. Growth Energy Application and Review Process C. Today's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) on Misfueling Mitigation Measures III. Method of Review IV. Waiver Submissions and Analysis of Light-Duty Motor Vehicle Issues A. MY2007 and Newer Motor Vehicles 1. Exhaust Emissions—Long-Term Durability a. Growth Energy's Submission b. Public Comment Summary c. EPA Response Regarding the Need for Long-Term Exhaust Emissions (Durability) Testing i. General Long-term Exhaust Emissions (Durability) Concerns ii. Response to Growth Energy's First Argument iii. Conclusion to Growth Energy's Second Argument d. Durability Studies and EPA Analysis i. DOE Catalyst Study Overview ii. Vehicle Selection and Matching iii. Fuels and Blending iv. Emissions Test Protocol v. Mileage Accumulation vi. Powertrain Component Inspection vii. Summary and Conclusions of the Final Results of the DOE Catalyst Study 2. Exhaust Emissions—Immediate Effects for MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles a. Growth Energy's Submission b. Public Comment Summary c. EPA Analysis d. Conclusion 3. Evaporative Emissions on MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles a. Introduction b. Growth Energy's Submission c. Public Comment Summary d. EPA Analysis e. Conclusion 4. Materials Compatibility for MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles a. Introduction b. Growth Energy's Submission c. Public Comment Summary d. EPA Analysis e. Conclusions 5. Driveability and Operability for MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles a. Introduction b. Growth Energy's Submission c. Public Comment Summary d. EPA Analysis e. Conclusions 6. Overall Immediate and Long-Term Emissions Conclusions B. MY2001-2006 Light-Duty Motor Vehicles C. MY2000 and Older Light-Duty Motor Vehicles 1. Growth Energy's Submission 2. Public Comment Summary 3. EPA Analysis and Conclusion a. Scope of MY2000 and Older Motor Vehicles Data to Support a Waiver Decision b. Exhaust Emissions—Long-Term Durability i. General Exhaust Emissions Durability Concerns ii. Immediate Exhaust Emission Impacts c. Evaporative Emissions d. Materials Compatibility V. Nonroad Engines, Vehicles and Equipment (Nonroad Products) A. Introduction B. Growth Energy Submission C. Public Comment Summary D. EPA Analysis 1. Scope of Nonroad Data to Support a Waiver Decision 2. Long-Term Exhaust Emissions (Durability) 3. Immediate Exhaust Emission Effects 4. Evaporative Emissions 5. Materials Compatibility 6. Driveability and Operability E. Conclusion VI. Heavy-Duty Gasoline Engines and Vehicles VII. Motorcycles VIII. E12 Midlevel Ethanol Blends A. First Argument: E12 Is Already Used in the Marketplace With No Reported Problems 1. ADM Argument 2. Comments 3. EPA Analysis B. Second Argument: EPA Effectively Allows Ethanol Blends Greater Than E10 1. ADM Argument 2. EPA Analysis C. Third Argument: EPA's Models Allow Greater Than 10 vol% Ethanol 1. ADM Argument 2. API and Alliance Comments 3. EPA Analysis D. Fourth Argument: ADM's Argument for an E12 Waiver 1. ADM Argument 2. API, AllSAFE and Alliance Comments 3. EPA Response E. Fifth Argument: E12 Is “Substantially Similar” to Certification Fuel 1. ADM Argument 2. API, AllSAFE and Alliance Comments 3. EPA Response F. EPA Conclusion IX. Legal Issues Arising in This Partial Waiver Decision A. Partial Waiver and Conditions of E15 Use B. Notice and Comment Procedures C. “Useful Life” Language in Section 211(f)(4) X. Waiver Conditions A. Fuel Quality Conditions B. Misfueling Mitigation Conditions and Strategies 1. Fuel Pump Dispenser Labeling 2. Fuel Pump Labeling and Fuel Sample Survey 3. Proper Documentation of Ethanol Content on Product Transfer Documents 4. Public Outreach XI. Reid Vapor Pressure XII. Partial Waiver Decision and Conditions I. Executive Summary In March 2009, Growth Energy and 54 ethanol manufacturers petitioned the Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA” or “The Agency”) to allow the introduction into commerce of up to 15 volume percent (vol%) ethanol in gasoline. In April 2009, EPA sought public comment on the Growth Energy petition and subsequently received about 78,000 comments. Prior to today's action, ethanol was limited to 10 vol% in motor vehicle gasoline (E10). In today's action, EPA is partially granting Growth Energy's waiver request based on our careful analysis of the available information, including test data and public comments. This partial grant waives the prohibition on fuel and fuel additive manufacturers on the introduction into commerce of gasoline containing greater than 10 vol% ethanol and no more than 15 vol% ethanol (E15) for use in certain motor vehicles. More specifically, today's action has two components. First, we are approving the waiver for and allowing the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in Model Year (MY) 2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, which includes passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles. 1 Second, we are denying the waiver for introduction into commerce of E15 for use in MY2000 and older light-duty motor vehicles, as well as heavy-duty gasoline highway engines and vehicles ( e.g., delivery trucks). Highway and off-highway motorcycles, and nonroad engines, vehicles, and equipment (nonroad products; e.g., boats, snowmobiles, and lawnmowers) typically use the same gasoline as highway motor vehicles; this decision is also a denial of a waiver for introducing motor vehicle gasoline into commerce containing more than 10 vol% ethanol for use in all of those products. The Agency is deferring a decision on the applicability of a waiver with respect to MY2001-2006 light-duty motor vehicles to await additional test data. The Department of Energy (DOE) has stated that it will complete testing on these vehicles in November, after which EPA will take appropriate action. 1 For purposes of today's decision, “MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles” include MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles (LDV), light-duty trucks (LDT), and medium-duty passenger vehicles (MDPV). To help ensure that E15 is only used in MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, EPA has developed a proposed rule (described below) with the express purpose of mitigating the potential for misfueling of E15 into vehicles and engines not approved for its use. EPA believes the proposed safeguards against misfueling would provide the most practical way to mitigate the potential for misfueling with E15. Moreover, the proposed rule, when adopted, would satisfy the misfueling mitigation conditions of today's partial waiver described below and would promote the successful introduction of E15 into commerce. However, if parties covered by this waiver (fuel and fuel additive manufacturers, which include renewable fuel producers and importers, petroleum refiners and importers, and ethanol blenders) desire to introduce E15 into commerce prior to a final rule being issued, they may do so provided they submit and EPA approves a plan that demonstrates that the misfueling mitigation conditions will be satisfied. In addition to the misfueling mitigation conditions, E15 must also meet certain fuel quality specifications before it may be introduced into commerce. To receive a waiver, as prescribed by the Clean Air Act, a fuel or fuel additive manufacturer must demonstrate that a new fuel or fuel additive will not cause or contribute to the failure of an engine or vehicle to achieve compliance with the emission standards to which it has been certified over its useful life. Reflecting that EPA's emission standards have continued to evolve and become more stringent over time, the in-use fleet is composed of vehicles and engines spanning not only different technologies, but also different emissions standards. Since ethanol affects different aspects of emissions, a wide range of data and information covering a wide range of highway and nonroad vehicles, engines, and equipment would be necessary for approval of an E15 waiver that would allow E15 to be introduced into commerce for use in all motor vehicles and all other engines and vehicles using motor vehicle gasoline (“full waiver”). Growth Energy did not provide the necessary information to support a full waiver in several key areas, especially long-term durability emissions data necessary to ensure that all motor vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline highway engines and vehicles, highway and off-highway motorcycles and nonroad products would continue to comply with their emission standards over their full useful life. In 2008, DOE began emissions durability testing on 19 Tier 2 motor vehicle models that would provide this data for MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles (“DOE Catalyst Study”). 2 Consequently, the Agency delayed a decision until the DOE test program was completed for these motor vehicles in September 2010. 2 DOE embarked on the study, in consultation with EPA, auto manufacturers, fuel providers and others, after enactment of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which significantly expanded the Federal Renewable Fuel Standard Program for increasing the use of renewable fuels in transportation fuel in order to reduce imported petroleum and emissions of greenhouse gases. EPA reached its decision on the waiver request based on the results of the DOE Catalyst Study and other information and test data submitted by Growth Energy and in public comments. EPA also applied engineering judgment, based on the data in reaching its decision. Specifically, consistent with past waiver decisions, the Agency evaluated Growth Energy's waiver request and made its decision based on four factors: (1) Exhaust emissions impacts—long-term (known as durability) and immediate; (2) evaporative system impacts—both immediate and long-term; (3) the impact of materials compatibility on emissions; and, (4) the impact of drivability and operability on emissions. The Agency's conclusions are summarized below and additional information on each subject is provided later in this decision document. MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles For MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, the DOE Catalyst Study and other information before EPA adequately demonstrates that the impact of E15 on overall emissions, including both immediate 3 and durability related emissions, will not cause or contribute to violations of the emissions standards for these motor vehicles. Likewise, the data and information adequately show that E15 will not lead to violations of the evaporative emissions standards, so long as the fuel does not exceed a Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of 9.0 psi in the summertime control season. 4 The information on materials compatibility and drivability also supports this conclusion. 3 In past waiver decisions, we have referred to “immediate” emissions as “instantaneous” emissions. “Immediate” and “instantaneous” are synonymous in this context. 4 EPA regulates the vapor pressure of gasoline sold at retail stations during the summer ozone season (June 1 to September 15) to reduce evaporative emissions from gasoline that contribute to ground-level ozone and diminish the effects of ozone-related health problems. Gasoline needs a higher vapor pressure in the wintertime for cold start purposes. Durability/Long-Term Exhaust Emissions The DOE Catalyst Study involved 19 high sales volume car and light-duty truck models (MY2005-2009 motor vehicles produced by the top U.S. sales-based automobile manufacturers) that are all designed for and subject to the Tier 2 motor vehicle emission standards. The purpose of the program was to evaluate the long term effects of E0 (gasoline that contains no ethanol and is the certification test fuel for emissions testing), E10, E15, and E20 (a gasoline-ethanol blend containing 20 vol% ethanol) on the durability of the exhaust emissions control system, especially the catalytic converter (catalyst), for Tier 2 motor vehicles. Analysis of the motor vehicles' emissions results at full useful life (120,000 miles) and emissions deterioration rates showed no significant difference between the E0 and E15 fueled groups. Three motor vehicles aged on EO fuel had failing emissions levels and one additional motor vehicle failed one of several replicate tests. One E15-aged motor vehicle had failing emissions. 5 However, none of the emissions failures appeared to be related to the fuel used. There were no emissions component or material failures during aging that were related to fueling. In addition, a review of the emission deterioration rates over the course of the test program revealed no statistically significant difference in emissions deterioration with E15 in comparison to E0. Using standard statistical tools, the test results support the conclusion that E15 does not cause or contribute to the failure of MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles in achieving their emissions standards over their useful lives. These results confirm EPA's engineering assessment that the changes manufacturers made to their motor vehicles (calibration, hardware, etc. ) to comply with the Agency's stringent Tier 2 emission standards (which began to phase in with MY2004) have resulted in the capability of Tier 2 motor vehicles to accommodate the additional enleanment caused by E15 and be compatible with ethanol concentrations up to E15. 6 . EPA's certification data show that all gasoline-fueled cars and light-duty trucks were fully phased in to the Tier 2 standards by MY2007 even though the program did not require the phase-in to be complete until MY2009. Consequently, EPA believes it appropriate to apply these test results to all MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles. 5 It should be noted that the Dodge Caliber vehicle aged on E15 failed Tier 2 Bin 5 FUL standards on E0. However, this vehicle met Tier 2 Bin 5 FUL standards when tested on E15. The Agency could not determine the cause. 6 See 65 FR 6698 (February 10, 2000). Immediate Exhaust Emissions Scientific information supports a conclusion that motor vehicles experience an immediate emissions impact independent of motor vehicle age (and therefore emission control technology) when operating on gasoline-ethanol blends. Nitrogen oxide (NO X ) emissions generally increase while volatile organic compound (VOC) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions decrease. The available data supports a conclusion that the immediate emissions impacts of E15 on Tier 2 motor vehicles are likely to have the same pattern as the immediate emissions impacts of E10 on older motor vehicles ( i.e., NO X emissions increase while VOC and CO emissions decrease). Although the magnitude of the immediate impact is expected to be slightly greater with E15, Tier 2 motor vehicles generally have a significant compliance margin at the time of certification and later on in-use (when they are in customer service) that should allow them to meet their emission standards even if they experience the predicted immediate NO X increases from E15 when compared to E0. The results of the DOE Catalyst Study reflect both the immediate emissions effects as well as any durability effects as described above, and the Tier 2 motor vehicles continued to comply with their emissions standards at their full useful life. As noted above, none of the emissions failures appeared to be related to the fuel used. Based on this immediate exhaust emissions information, coupled with the durability test data and conclusions, E15 is not expected to cause Tier 2 motor vehicles to exceed their exhaust standards over their useful lives when operated on E15. Evaporative Emissions Both diurnal and running loss evaporative emissions increase as fuel volatility increases. Diurnal evaporative emissions occur when motor vehicles are not operating and experience the change in temperature during the day, such as while parked. Running loss evaporative emissions occur while motor vehicles are being operated. Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) is the common measure of the volatility of gasoline. E15 that meets an RVP limit of 9.0 pounds per square inch (psi) during the summer (which is equal to the RVP of E0) should not produce higher diurnal or running loss evaporative emissions than E0. We expect MY2007 and newer vehicles to meet evaporative emissions standard on 9.0 psi E15. There are concerns with E15 having an RVP greater than 9.0 psi. When ethanol is blended at 15 vol%, a 10.0 psi RVP fuel compared to 9.0 psi RVP fuel will have substantially higher evaporative emissions levels that must be captured by the emissions control system (a carbon filled canister and related system elements). This increase in evaporative emissions is beyond what manufacturers have been required to control, based on the motor vehicle certification testing for the emissions standards. Test results highlight the concern that fuel with an RVP greater than 9.0 psi during the summer will lead to motor vehicles exceeding their evaporative emission standards in-use. Additionally, as explained in the misfueling mitigation measures proposed rule, EPA interprets the 1.0 psi waiver in CAA section 211(h) as being limited to gasoline-ethanol blends that contain 10 vol% ethanol. Therefore, given the significant potential for increased evaporative emissions at higher gasoline volatility levels, and the lack of data to resolve how this would impact compliance with the emissions standards, today's waiver is limited to E15 with a summertime RVP no higher than 9.0 psi. Other potential issues for evaporative emissions of motor vehicles operated on E15 are increased permeation and long-term (durability) impacts. 7 Available test data indicate that for Tier 2 motor vehicles any increase in evaporative emissions as a result of permeation is limited and within the evaporative compliance margins for these motor vehicles. This is consistent with the demonstration of evaporative emissions system durability after aging on E10 that was required beginning with the Tier 2 motor vehicle standards, for the purpose of limiting permeation. With respect to durability of the evaporative emissions control systems, data from several aspects of the DOE Catalyst Study point to the expected durability of the evaporative emissions control system of Tier 2 motor vehicles on E15. First, there appears to be no evidence of an increase in evaporative emissions system onboard diagnostic system codes being triggered by E15 compared to E0. Second, teardown results of the 12 motor vehicles tested (six models with E0 and six models with E15) found no abnormalities for E15 motor vehicles compared to E0 motor vehicles. 8 Finally, evaporative testing on four of the Tier 2 motor vehicles over the course of the test program found no increased deterioration in evaporative emissions with E15 in comparison to E0. 9 Therefore, after taking into account all of these sources of evaporative emissions data, the evidence supports a conclusion that as long as E15 meets a summertime control season gasoline volatility level of no higher than 9.0 psi, E15 is not expected to cause or contribute to exceedances of the evaporative emission standards over the full useful life of Tier 2 motor vehicles. 7 Permeation refers to the migration of fuel molecules through the walls of elastomers used for fuel system components. 8 Southwest Research Institute Project 08-58845 Status Report, “Powertrain Component Inspection from Mid-Level Blends Vehicle Aging Study,” September 6, 2010. See EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-14016. 9 Environmental Testing Corporation NREL Subcontract JGC-9-99141-01 Presentation, “Vehicle Aging and Comparative Emissions testing Using E0 and E15 Fuels: Evaporative Emissions Results,” August 31, 2010. See EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-14015. Materials Compatibility Materials compatibility is a key factor in considering a fuel or fuel additive waiver insofar as poor materials compatibility can lead to serious exhaust and evaporative emission compliance problems not only immediately upon use of the new fuel or fuel additive, but especially over the full useful life of vehicles and engines. As part of its E15 waiver application, Growth Energy submitted a series of studies completed by the State of Minnesota and the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) that investigated materials compatibility of motor vehicle engines and engine components using three test fuels: E0, E10, and E20. The materials studied included what were considered to be many of the common metals, elastomers, and plastics used in motor vehicle fuel systems. Growth Energy concluded that E15 would not be problematic for current automotive or fuel dispensing equipment. While directionally illustrative, the materials compatibility information submitted by Growth Energy does not encompass all materials used in motor vehicle fuel systems, and the test procedures used are not representative of the dynamic real-world conditions under which the materials must perform. The information is therefore insufficient by itself to adequately assess the potential material compatibility of E15. However, the information generated through the DOE Catalyst Study demonstrates that MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles will not experience materials compatibility issues that lead to exhaust or evaporative emission exceedances. The DOE Catalyst Study supports the Agency's engineering assessment that newer motor vehicles such as those subject to EPA's Tier 2 standards, were designed to encounter more regular ethanol exposure compared to earlier model year motor vehicles. Other regulatory requirements also placed an emphasis on real world motor vehicle testing, which in turn prompted manufacturers to consider different available fuels when developing and testing their emissions systems. Additionally, beginning with Tier 2, the evaporative durability demonstration procedures required the use of E10. As a result, based on the information before us, we do not expect E15 to raise emissions related materials compatibility issues for Tier 2 motor vehicles. Drivability and Operability There is no evidence from any of the test programs cited by Growth Energy or in the data from the DOE Catalyst Study of driveability issues for Tier 2 motor vehicles fueled with E15 that would indicate that use of E15 would lead to increased emissions or that might cause motor vehicle owners to want to tamper with the emission control system of their motor vehicle. The Agency reviewed the data and reports from the different test programs, and found no specific report of driveability or operability issues across the many different motor vehicles and duty cycles, including lab testing and in-use operation. MY2000 and Older Light-Duty Motor Vehicles For MY2000 and older motor vehicles, the data and information before EPA fail to adequately demonstrate that the impact of E15 on exhaust emissions—both immediate and durability-related—will not cause or contribute to violations of the emissions standards for these motor vehicles. MY2000 and older motor vehicles do not have the sophisticated emissions control systems of today's Tier 2 motor vehicles, and there is an engineering basis to believe they may experience conditions affecting catalyst durability that lead to emission increases if operated on E15. This emissions impact, over time, combined with the expected immediate increase in NO X emissions from the use of E15, provides a clear basis for concern that E15 could cause these motor vehicles to exceed their emissions standards over their useful lives. Furthermore, some MY2000 and older motor vehicles were likely designed for no more than limited exposure to ethanol, since gasoline-ethanol blends were not used in most areas of the country at the time they were designed. Their fuel systems, evaporative emissions control systems, and internal engine components may not have been designed and tested for long-term durability, materials compatibility, or drivability with fuels containing ethanol. The limited exhaust emissions durability test data, evaporative emissions durability test data, and real-world materials compatibility test data either provided by Growth Energy in their petition or available in the public domain do not address or resolve these concerns. Therefore, the information before the Agency is not adequate to make the demonstration needed to grant a waiver for the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in MY2000 and older light-duty motor vehicles. MY2001-2006 Light-Duty Motor Vehicles EPA is deferring a decision on MY2001-2006 light-duty motor vehicles. DOE is in the process of conducting additional catalyst durability testing that will provide data regarding MY2001-2006 motor vehicles. The DOE testing is scheduled to be completed by the end of November 2010. EPA will make the DOE test results available to the public and consider the results and other available data and information in making a determination on the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in those model year motor vehicles. EPA expects to make a determination for these motor vehicles shortly after the results of DOE testing are available. Nonroad Engines, Vehicles, and Equipment (Nonroad Products) The nonroad product market is extremely diverse. Nonroad products with gasoline engines include lawn mowers, chainsaws, forklifts, boats, personal watercraft, and all-terrain vehicles. Growth Energy did not provide information needed to broadly assess the potential impact of E15 on compliance of nonroad products with applicable emissions standards. Nonroad products typically have more basic engine designs, fuel systems, and controls than light-duty motor vehicles. The Agency has reasons for concern with the use of E15 in nonroad products, particularly with respect to long-term exhaust and evaporative emissions durability and materials compatibility. The limited information provided by Growth Energy and commenters, or otherwise available in the public domain, did not alleviate these concerns. As such, the Agency cannot grant a waiver for introduction into commerce of E15 motor vehicle gasoline that is also for use in nonroad products. Heavy-Duty Gasoline Engines and Vehicles Given their relatively small volume compared to light-duty motor vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles have not been the focus of test programs and efforts to assess the potential impacts of E15 on them. Growth Energy did not provide any data specifically addressing how heavy-duty gasoline engines' and vehicles' emissions and emissions control systems would be affected by the use of E15 over the full useful lives of these vehicles and engines. Additionally, from a historical perspective, the introduction of heavy-duty gasoline engine and vehicle technology has lagged behind the implementation of similar technology for light-duty motor vehicles. Similarly, emission standards for this sector have lagged behind those of light-duty motor vehicles, such that current heavy-duty gasoline engine standards remain comparable, from a technology standpoint to older light-duty motor vehicle standards. Consequently, we believe the concerns expressed above regarding MY2000 and older motor vehicles are also applicable to the majority of the in-use fleet of heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles. As such, the Agency cannot grant a waiver for the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in heavy-duty gasoline engines and motor vehicles. Highway and Off-Highway Motorcycles Like heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles, highway and off-highway motorcycles have not been the focus of E15 test programs. Growth Energy did not provide any data addressing how motorcycle emissions and emissions control systems would specifically be affected by the use of E15 over their full useful lives. While newer motorcycles incorporate some of the advanced fuel system and emission control technologies that are found in passenger cars and light-duty trucks, such as electronic fuel injection and catalysts, many do not have the specific control technology of today's motor vehicles (advanced fuel trim control) that would allow them to adjust to the higher oxygen content of E15. More importantly, older motorcycles do not have any of these technologies and are therefore more on par with nonroad products in some cases and MY2000 and older motor vehicles in others. As such, the Agency cannot grant a waiver for the introduction into commerce of E15 for use in highway and off-highway motorcycles. Conditions on Today's Partial Waiver There are two types of conditions being placed on the partial waiver being granted today: Those for mitigating the potential for misfueling of E15 in all vehicles, engines and equipment for which E15 is not approved, and those addressing fuel and ethanol quality. All of the conditions are discussed further below and are listed in Section XII. EPA believes that the misfueling mitigation measures in the proposed rule accompanying today's waiver decision would provide the most practical way to ensure that E15 is only used in vehicles for which it is approved. However, if any fuel or fuel additive manufacturer desires to introduce into commerce E15, gasoline intended for use as E15, or ethanol intended for blending with gasoline to create E15, prior to the misfueling mitigation measures rule becoming final and effective, they may do so provided they implement all of the conditions of the partial waiver, including an EPA-approved plan that demonstrates that the fuel or fuel additive manufacturer will implement the misfueling mitigation conditions discussed below. Misfueling Mitigation Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) As mentioned above, EPA is proposing a regulatory program that would help mitigate the potential for misfueling with E15 and promote the successful introduction of E15 into commerce. The proposal includes several provisions that parallel the misfueling mitigation conditions on the E15 waiver. First, the proposed rule would prohibit the use of gasoline-ethanol blended fuels containing greater than 10 vol% and up to 15 vol% ethanol in vehicles and engines not covered by the partial waiver for E15. Second, the proposed rule would require all fuel dispensers to have a label if a retail station chooses to sell E15, and it seeks comment on separate labeling requirements for blender pumps and fuel pumps that dispense E85. Finally, the proposed rule would require product transfer documents (PTDs) specifying ethanol content and RVP to accompany the transfer of gasoline blended with ethanol as well as a national survey of retail stations to ensure compliance with the these requirements. In addition to proposing actions to mitigate misfueling, the proposed rule would modify the Reformulated Gasoline (“RFG”) program by updating the Complex Model to allow fuel manufacturers to certify batches of gasoline containing up to 15 vol% ethanol. Once adopted, these regulations would facilitate the introduction of E15 into commerce under this partial waiver, as certain requirements in the regulations would satisfy certain conditions in the waiver. If EPA adopts such a rule, EPA would consider any appropriate modifications to the conditions of this waiver. II. Introduction A. Statutory Background Section 211(f)(1) of the Clean Air Act (“CAA” or “the Act”) makes it unlawful for any manufacturer of any fuel or fuel additive to first introduce into commerce, or to increase the concentration in use of, any fuel or fuel additive for use by any person in motor vehicles manufactured after model year 1974 which is not substantially similar to any fuel or fuel additive utilized in the certification of any model year 1975, or subsequent model year, vehicle or engine under section 206 of the Act. The Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA” or “the Agency”) last issued an interpretive rule on the phrase “substantially similar” at 73 FR 22281 (April 25, 2008). Generally speaking, this interpretive rule describes the types of unleaded gasoline that are likely to be considered “substantially similar” to the unleaded gasoline utilized in EPA's certification program by placing limits on a gasoline's chemical composition as well as its physical properties, including the amount of alcohols and ethers (oxygenates) that may be added to gasoline. Fuels that are found to be “substantially similar” to EPA's certification fuels may be registered and introduced into commerce. The current “substantially similar” interpretive rule for unleaded gasoline allows oxygen content up to 2.7% by weight for certain ethers and alcohols. 10 E10 (a gasoline-ethanol blend containing 10 vol% ethanol) contains approximately 3.5% oxygen by weight and received a waiver of this prohibition by operation of law under section 211(f)(4). 11 E15 (gasoline-ethanol blended fuels containing greater than 10 vol% ethanol and up to 15 vol% ethanol) has greater than 2.7 wt% oxygen content, and Growth Energy has applied for a waiver under section 211(f)(4) of the Act. 10 See 56 FR 5352 (February 11, 1991). 11 As explained at 44 FR 20777 (April 6, 1979), EPA did not grant or deny a waiver request for a fuel containing 90% unleaded gasoline and 10% ethyl alcohol within 180 days of receiving that request. By operation of a provision that was at that time included in section 211(f)(4), E10 was no longer subject to the prohibitions in CAA section 211(f)(1) of the Act. That provision has subsequently been removed. Section 211(f)(4) of the Act provides that upon application of any fuel or fuel additive manufacturer, the Administrator may waive the prohibitions of section 211(f)(1) if the Administrator determines that the applicant has established that such fuel or fuel additive, or a specified concentration thereof, will not cause or contribute to a failure of any emission control device or system (over the useful life of the motor vehicle, motor vehicle engine, nonroad engine or nonroad vehicle in which such device or system is used) to achieve compliance by the vehicle or engine with the emission standards to which it has been certified pursuant to sections 206 and 213(a). In other words, the Administrator may grant a waiver for a prohibited fuel or fuel additive if the applicant can demonstrate that the new fuel or fuel additive will not cause or contribute to engines, vehicles or equipment to fail to meet their emissions standards over their useful lives. The statute requires that the Administrator shall take final action to grant or deny the application, after public notice and comment, within 270 days of receipt of the application. The current section 211(f)(4) reflects the following changes made by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: (1) Requires consideration of the impact on nonroad engines and nonroad vehicles in a waiver decision; (2) extends the period allowed for consideration of the waiver request application from 180 days to 270 days; and, (3) deletes a provision that resulted in a waiver request becoming effective by operation of law if the Administrator made no decision on the application within 180 days of receipt of the application. 12 12 As noted previously, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 also substantially increased the mandated renewable fuel requirements of the Renewable Fuels Standard Program. B. Growth Energy Application and Review Process On March 6, 2009, Growth Energy and 54 ethanol manufacturers (hereafter “Growth Energy”) submitted an application to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for a waiver of the substantially similar prohibition. This application seeks a waiver for gasoline containing up to 15 vol% ethanol. On April 21, 2009, EPA published notice of the receipt of the application, and EPA requested public comment on all aspects of the waiver application for assisting the Administrator in determining whether the statutory basis for granting the waiver request for E15 has been met. 13 EPA originally provided a 30-day period for the public to respond. The deadline for public comment was May 21, 2009. 13 See 74 FR 18228 (April 21, 2009). After multiple requests for additional time to comment, EPA agreed that additional time for comments was appropriate and that an extension of the comment period would aid in providing these stakeholders and others an adequate amount of time to respond to the complex legal and technical issues that result from possibly allowing E15 to be sold commercially. Accordingly, on May 20, 2009, EPA published a Federal Register notice extending the public comment period for the E15 waiver application until July 20, 2009. 14 For EPA's response to more recent requests for an additional comment period, see section IX. 14 See 74 FR 23704 (May 20, 2009). The Agency received approximately 78,000 comments on the waiver application. The overwhelming majority of these comments were brief comments from individuals indicating either general support for or opposition to the E15 waiver application. The Agency also received a large number of comments from a variety of organizations which substantively addressed the questions which EPA posed in the Federal Register notice announcing receipt of the application. These comments are summarized and addressed below. In addition to the information submitted by Growth Energy and commenters, the Department of Energy (DOE) has been performing, and continues to perform, testing on a variety of motor vehicles focused on the effect E15 might have on motor vehicles after long-term use of E15 (“DOE Catalyst Study”). This testing is a significant source of information on the effects of E15 on the durability of motor vehicles' emissions control systems, a key technical issue to be addressed in EPA's waiver review. This kind of testing requires thousands of miles of mileage accumulation (or its equivalent using a test cell), and the collection of such data requires a significant amount of time to complete. Coordinating with EPA and stakeholders, DOE expedited the durability testing, first focusing on newer motor vehicles. Realizing that it would take a significant amount of time (months) to finish collecting and evaluating the durability data, EPA notified Growth Energy in a letter on November 30, 2009, that it was not issuing a decision on the waiver at that time but instead planned to issue a decision at a later date based on the need to assess the critical data being generated by the DOE catalyst durability test program. The DOE Catalyst Study is comprehensive. A total of 82 vehicles are expected to undergo full useful life testing. Motor vehicles are accumulating mileage under an accelerated protocol, which generally results in each motor vehicle being tested over 6-9 months. DOE has completed the first phase of this testing which focused on light-duty motor vehicles certified to Federal Tier 2 emissions standards. The analysis and evaluation of not only this durability data, but all of the data relevant to the Growth Energy application, as well as EPA's partial waiver decision, is discussed and explained below. DOE should complete testing on vehicles certified to National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) and Tier 1 Federal emission standards by the end of November. Various parties have also suggested allowances for the use of E12 (gasoline-ethanol blended fuel that contains 12 vol% ethanol) for all gasoline-powered vehicles and engines. The issue of E12 is also discussed separately below in Section VIII. C. Today's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) on Misfueling Mitigation Measures As noted above, today's partial waiver decision places several conditions on fuel and fuel additive manufacturers to mitigate the use of E15 in nonroad products, highway and off-highway motorcycles, heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles, and motor vehicles older than MY2007. In a separate notice, we are today proposing regulatory provisions that parallel many of the conditions placed on the E15 partial waiver. Specifically, we are proposing a prohibition on the use of gasoline containing greater than 10 vol% ethanol in MY2000 and older non-flex fueled light-duty motor vehicles, heavy-duty gasoline engines and vehicles, highway and off-highway motorcycles, and all nonroad products, based on findings under both sections 211(c)(1)(A) and (B) of the CAA. The prohibition is necessary based on the potential for increased emissions resulting from the use of E15. In order to facilitate the entry of E15 into commerce for use in MY2007 and newer motor vehicles, while protecting vehicles and engines not approved for use of E15, this rulemaking proposes fuel pump labeling provisions to mitigate the misfueling of motor vehicles and other engines, vehicles and equipment prohibited from using a motor vehicle gasoline containing ethanol in levels higher than E10. We are also proposing additional requirements for fuels that contain greater than 10 vol% ethanol and no more than 15 vol% ethanol, including the proper documentation of ethanol content on product transfer documents and requirements for a national survey to ensure the proper placement of E15 labels and the proper placement of gasoline-ethanol blends in the appropriate gasoline storage tanks; these provisions should help support the effectiveness of a labeling program. III. Method of Review Under section 211(f)(4) of the Act, 24 applications for waivers of the section 211(f)(1) prohibitions have been received over the past 30 years. Of these, 23 applications have sought a waiver for additives for unleaded gasoline. One application sought a waiver of the section 211(f)(1)(B) prohibitions for an additive to diesel fuel. Of these 24 applications, 11 applications were granted (some with conditions attached), 10 were denied, and three were withdrawn by the applicant prior to the Agency's decision. 15 15 “Waiver Requests under Section 211(f) of the Clean Air Act (Revised August 22, 1995),” found at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/fuels/additive/waiver.pdf. Section 211(f)(4) clearly places upon the waiver applicant the burden of establishing that its fuel or fuel additive will not cause or contribute to the failure of vehicles or engines to meet their assigned emission standards over their useful lives. Absent a sufficient showing, the Administrator cannot make the required determination and cannot grant the waiver. If interpreted literally, however, this burden of proof would be virtually impossible for an applicant to meet as it requires the proof of a negative proposition: That no vehicle or engine will fail to meet emission standards to which it has been certified. Such a literal interpretation could be construed as requiring the testing of every vehicle or engine that will use the waived fuel. Recognizing that Congress contemplated a workable waiver provision, EPA has previously indicated that reliable statistical sampling and fleet testing protocols could safely be used to demonstrate that a fuel or fuel additive under consideration would not cause or contribute to motor vehicles in the applicable national fleet failing to meet their applicable emissions standards. 16 16 See 43 FR 41425 (September 18, 1978). While this demonstration typically takes the form of reliable statistical sampling and fleet testing protocols, an applicant may also make a demonstration based upon a reasonable theory regarding emissions effects and support these judgments with confirmatory testing as an alternative to providing the amount of data necessary to conduct robust statistical analyses. 17 If a reasonable theory exists, based on good engineering judgment, which predicts the emission effects of a fuel or fuel additive, an applicant may only need to conduct a sufficient amount of testing to demonstrate the validity of such a theory. This theory and confirmatory testing then form the basis from which the Administrator may exercise his or her judgment on whether the fuel or fuel additive will cause or contribute to a failure of the vehicles and engines to achieve compliance with their emission standards. 18 Thus, the burden of proof calls for sufficient data to conduct statistical analyses or to confirm a reasonable theory based on sound engineering judgment. 17 See 44 FR 12244 (February 23, 1979). 18 See Waiver Decision on Application of E.I. DuPont de Nemours and Company (DuPont), 46 FR 6124 (February 28, 1983). In determining whether a waiver applicant has established that the proposed fuel or fuel additive will not cause or contribute to vehicles and engines failing to meet their emission standards, EPA reviews all of the material in the public docket. At a minimum, the docket includes data submitted with the application and the public comments and data received during the public review and comment period on the application. EPA may also examine applicable data from any other sources which may shed light on the relevant analyses; such other data is also placed in the docket. EPA then considers and analyzes all of the data to ascertain the emission effects of the fuel or fuel additive on the applicable engines and vehicles. In conducting a waiver application review, EPA's emissions impact analysis concentrates on the following four major areas: 19 (1) Exhaust emissions, both immediate and long-term (durability); (2) evaporative emissions, both immediate and long-term; (3) materials compatibility; and (4) driveability and operability. EPA evaluates the emissions impacts in these four categories individually and collectively and makes its final determination based on whether the new fuel or fuel additive will cause or contribute to the failure of vehicles and engines to meet their emissions standards. Each category is further discussed below. 19 See 44 FR 12244 (February 23, 1979). Exhaust and evaporative emission data are analyzed according to the effects that a fuel or fuel additive is predicted to have on emissions over time. If the fuel is predicted to have only an immediate effect on emissions ( i.e., the emission effects of the fuel or fuel additive are immediate and remain constant throughout the life of the vehicle or engine when operating on the waiver fuel), then “back-to-back” emissions testing will suffice. However, if the fuel or fuel additive affects the operation of the engine or related emission control hardware in a physical manner ( e.g., operating temperatures, component interaction, chemical changes, increased permeation, and materials degradation) that might lead to emissions deterioration over time, test data is needed to demonstrate that the long-term durability of the emissions control system is not compromised by the fuel or fuel additive such that it would cause or contribute to the engines or vehicles failing to meet their emissions standards. Materials compatibility issues can lead to substantial exhaust and evaporative emissions increases. In most cases, materials incompatibility issues show up in emissions testing; however, there may be impacts that do not show up due to the way the testing is performed or because the tests simply do not capture the effect, especially if materials compatibility effects are determined to result with use of the new fuel or fuel additive over time. EPA has required applicants to demonstrate that new fuel or fuel additives will not have materials compatibility issues. 20 20 See 44 FR 1447 (January 5, 1979). A change in the driveability of a motor vehicle that results in significant deviation from normal operation ( i.e., stalling, hesitation, etc. ) could result in increased emissions. These increases may not be demonstrated in the emission certification test cycles but instead are present during in-use operation. In addition to consumer dissatisfaction, a motor vehicle stall and subsequent restart can result in a significant emissions increase because hydrocarbon (HC) and CO emission rates are typically highest during cold starts. Further, concerns exist if the consumer or operator tampers with the motor vehicle in an attempt to correct the driveability issue since consumers may attempt to modify a motor vehicle from its original certified configuration. IV. Waiver Submissions and Analysis of Light-Duty Motor Vehicle Issues This section discusses Growth Energy's waiver submission, comments received on it, and EPA's waiver decision and analysis for light-duty motor vehicles. The discussion groups vehicles according to our decision: MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles for which we are approving the waiver, MY2001-2006 for which we are deferring a decision, and MY2000 and older motor vehicles for which we are denying the waiver. As described in Section III, Method of Review, above, the Agency evaluated Growth Energy's waiver request and made its decision based on four factors: (1) Exhaust emissions impact—both immediate and long-term (known as durability); (2) immediate exhaust emissions impact; (2) evaporative system impacts—both immediate and long-term; (3) the impact of materials compatibility on emissions; and, (4) the impact of drivability and operability on emissions. A. MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles While this section discusses the rationale of our decision for MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles, it references information related to other model years as Growth Energy's submission was not model year specific and neither were the comments. In addition, we believe it was important to discuss MY2007 and newer motor vehicles in the context of how they are different from earlier model year light-duty motor vehicles. 1. Exhaust Emissions—Long-Term Durability a. Growth Energy's Submission For long-term durability testing (“durability testing”), Growth Energy suggests that durability testing is not required for E15 for two reasons. First, in its waiver application and public comments, Growth Energy argued that emissions testing to determine the impact of long-term use of E15 on the emissions control system is not required for E15 because EPA has waived durability testing for oxygenates in the past. Growth Energy contends that EPA has determined that oxygenates such as ethanol do not require durability testing because the Agency is “unaware of any long-term deteriorative effects on exhaust emissions associated with oxygenates” 21 and that “the vast majority of data indicate that the effect of oxygenates on exhaust emissions over time has not been a significant issue.” 22 Growth Energy argued further that it would be “arbitrary and capricious” for the Agency to require durability testing for E15 considering EPA's long-standing position that oxygenates like ethanol will not have long-term exhaust emissions effects. 21 See 53 FR 33846 (September 1, 1988). 22 See 44 FR 10530 (February 21, 1979). Growth Energy's second argument is that EPA may accept reasonable theoretical judgments regarding the emission effects of a fuel as an alternative to direct testing of motor vehicles, and that in this case, fuel volatility specification, limited durability emissions testing, and data regarding materials compatibility and driveability could be used to establish and confirm such a theory. Growth Energy suggests that the collection of studies supplied in the application, coupled with 30 years of experience using E10, provides a rational basis to develop a theory that E15 will not cause or contribute to emissions failures in motor vehicles. Growth Energy feels that the studies supplied in the application supply enough data to confirm their theory and this alleviates the need for long-term emissions testing. In particular, Growth Energy suggests that since a study conducted by the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) 23 examined the effects of E20 (gasoline-ethanol blend containing 20 vol% ethanol) on 10 vehicles over significant mileage accumulation (75,000 miles combined), and found no issues when comparing E20 emissions performance with E0 (gasoline containing no ethanol) emissions performance, that “E20 will not have a significant deteriorative effect on applicable vehicle parts.” 24 Growth Energy believes that this is enough information to satisfy long-term exhaust emissions testing requirements. In its comments, Growth Energy supplied an updated summary of the RIT Study which details RIT's expansion of the driveability program to 400 motor vehicles. Growth Energy argues that the updated summary of the RIT Study that they submitted in their comments has shown “no significant issues” with over 400 motor vehicles that have accumulated over 1.5 million total combined miles and found that “emissions may be reduced through use of E-20.” 25 Growth Energy contends that this study confirms their theory that E15 will not cause or contribute to motor vehicles failing their emissions standards over their full useful lives. 23 The effect of E20 ethanol fuel on vehicle emissions, B Hilton and B Daddy, Center for Integrated Manufacturing Studies, Rochester Institute of Technology, June 26, 2009. See EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211. (“The RIT Study”). 24 “Application For A Waiver Pursuant to Section 211(f)(4) of the Clean Air Act For E-15” Submitted by Growth Energy on Behalf of 52 United States Ethanol Manufacturers; EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-0002.6. 25 “Growth Energy's Comments on Notice of Clean Air Act Waiver Application To Increase the Allowable Ethanol Content of Gasoline to Fifteen Percent,” EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-2721.1. b. Public Comment Summary Several commenters responded that the RIT Study has limitations and does not alleviate concerns about the long-term emissions impacts of using E15 in motor vehicles. The Manufacturers of Emissions Controls Association (MECA) argues that emission control-related concerns regarding the use of E15 include the potential for accelerated thermal deactivation of three-way catalysts equipped on existing light-duty motor vehicles or nonroad engines, due to higher exhaust temperatures that have been observed on engines fueled with mid-level ethanol blends in comparison to E0 and E10. MECA argues further that the thermal durability of three-way catalyst formulations is a function of time, catalyst temperature, and gas composition; extended catalyst exposure to higher exhaust temperatures, especially in the presence of oxygen-rich exhaust conditions that can be created through the use of E15, can accelerate catalyst thermal deactivation mechanisms ( e.g., sintering of active precious metal sites, sintering of oxygen storage materials, and migration of active materials into inert support materials). 26 26 “Statement of the Manufacturers of Emission Controls Association on the Waiver Request Received by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to Increase the Ethanol Content of Gasoline up to 15%,” EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-2441.1. Many commenters point out that Growth Energy submitted and cited only a summary of the RIT Study. The summary, as these commenters note, omits key details necessary to evaluate the conclusions that Growth Energy draws from the RIT Study. For example, commenters noted that the summary did not specify the make, model and year of the motor vehicles tested, making it impossible to determine the representativeness of RIT's motor vehicle test fleet. Additionally, they added that no actual data were included in the summary for commenters and the Agency to conduct independent analyses of RIT's test results. Furthermore, no detailed descriptions outlining the fuel properties of both test fuels (E0 and E20) were included in the summary. Even through Growth Energy provided an updated summary of the RIT Study in its comments, this updated summary still omitted important details necessary for commenters and the Agency to conduct an independent analysis. Auto manufacturers, refiners, and several others similarly noted that higher exhaust temperatures could cause increased deterioration of catalysts over time. These commenters assert that this deterioration may adversely affect a motor vehicle's ability to meet emissions standards, particularly after significant mileage accumulation. Commenters noted that a recently released Coordinating Research Council (CRC) Report E-87-1 (“the CRC Screening Study” or “E-87-1”) is the first phase of another test program developed to look at the effects of mid-level gasoline-ethanol blends on U.S. motor vehicles. 27 The purpose of the study was to identify motor vehicles which used learned fuel trims to correct open-loop air-to-fuel (A/F) ratios since this may gauge the risk of the catalyst to thermal degradation. 28 This study is the first phase of a two-phase study evaluating the effects of mid-level gasoline-ethanol blends on emission control systems. The test program identified and acquired a fleet of 25 test motor vehicles with 12 of those motor vehicles manufactured after 2000. The study collected vehicle speed, oxygen sensor A/F ratio, and catalyst temperature data on four fuels (E0, E10, E15, and E20). Results compared the three gasoline-ethanol blends with E0. The study concluded that a large number of vehicles (12 of the 25 tested) failed to apply long-term fuel trim to correct for increasing ethanol levels when operating in open-loop control. 27 Mid-level Ethanol Blends Catalyst Durability Study Screening (CRC Report: E-87-1), June 2009 (“CRC Screening Study”), EPA Docket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-13970. Available at: http://www.crcao.com/reports/recentstudies2009/E-87-1/E-87-1%20Final%20Report%2007_06_2009.pdf. 28 See section IV.A.1.c. for a detailed discussion of these terms. Commenters also pointed out that the CRC Screening Study showed increased exhaust temperatures in motor vehicles that failed to apply long-term learned fuel trim when operating open loop at wide open throttle using E15 and E20. This constituted seven of the sixteen vehicles tested, and the average increase was 30 degrees Celsius in these motor vehicles. Several comments refer to a series of studies conducted by Orbital Engine Company for Environment Australia to evaluate impacts E20 would have if introduced in Australia (“the Orbital Study”). The Orbital Study evaluated emissions performance on total hydrocarbon, CO, NOx and aldehydes, materials compatibility issues, and driveability of E20 compared to E0 with a test fleet of five paired late model Australian motor vehicles. The Orbital Study completed emissions testing over 80,000 kilometers (about 50,000 miles). The study notes that there were substantial increases in regulated pollutants for motor vehicles that used E20 when compared with vehicles that used E0 after the accumulation of 80,000 kilometers. The study's authors further point out that one motor vehicle operating on E20 exceeded the Australian NO X emissions standard. 29 The Orbital authors also examined catalyst efficiency changes as a possible cause of the changes in emissions as a result of aging the motor vehicles on E20. The Orbital authors conclude that the exhaust emissions increases occurred due to catalyst degradation which they attribute to the increase in exhaust temperature from E20 use during particular modes of operation. They continue by noting that the two motor vehicles that experienced dramatic emissions increases with E20 after aging were motor vehicle models that failed to adjust to the higher oxygen levels found in E20. 29 After reviewing the emissions results presented in the Orbital Study, we believe that these motor vehicles' certified emissions standards are comparable to the Tier 1 (1994 to 1999) motor vehicle exhaust emissions standards in the United States. The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (“the Alliance”) reasons that the Orbital Study, the CRC Screening Study, and the DOE Pilot Study 30 suggest that allowing the use of E15 in motor vehicles could cause a substantial number of motor vehicles to fail emissions standards because of increased catalyst deterioration over the motor vehicles' full useful life, especially in so-called “legacy vehicles” which constitute a bulk of the American motor vehicle fleet. The Alliance asserts that this uncertainty of the long-term effects of E15 on catalysts durability would require motor vehicle testing over the full useful life to address these concerns. The Alliance for a Safe Alternative Fuels Environment (“AllSAFE”) concluded that legally “when the relevant effects can include accelerated catalyst deterioration, 'back to back' testing to determine so-called 'immediate' emissions impacts is not sufficient.” 31 30 In October 2008, DOE released a report titled Effects of Intermediate Ethanol Blends on Legacy Vehicles and Small Non-road Engines, Report 1. DOE later published an update to that report, which included all of the original study plus additional vehicles. For the purposes of this decision document, we refer to the updated study, Effects of Intermediate Ethanol Blends on Legacy Vehicles and Small Non-road Engines, Report 1—Updated, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, February 2009, as the “DOE Pilot Study”. EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0161-2880. 31 “Exhibit B, Supplemental Statutory Appendix To the Comments of the Alliance for a Safe Alternative Fuels Environment On the Request for Waiver of the Prohibition in Section 211(f)(1) of the Clean Air Act Noticed for Comment at 74 FR 18,228 (April 21, 2009)”, submitted by AllSAFE, EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-2559.2. Growth Energy submitted two responses to the Orbital Study. First, Growth Energy commented that the motor vehicles tested in the Orbital Study were designed for Australian emission standards and are not representative of motor vehicles found in the US. Second, since much of the research Orbital relied on was conducted in the 1980s and early 1990s, Growth Energy points out that the “U.S. fleet has been redesigned significantly since the mid-1980s to accommodate different fuel blends and meet the world's most stringent emission regulations.” 32 32 “ATTACHMENT A: Responses to Anecdotes and Unfounded Claims Regarding E-15,” submitted by Growth Energy, EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-2721.2. Specifically addressing the issue of higher catalyst temperatures, Growth Energy, ACE, and others responded in their respective comments that higher catalyst temperatures are not necessarily harmful to the catalysts. 33 They point out that the catalyst temperature increases in the DOE Pilot Study were relatively small and well within normal operating temperatures. These commenters also note that the temperatures only occurred in certain motor vehicles and only when those motor vehicles were operated in the rarely used wide open throttle mode. Growth Energy points out that for the seven motor vehicles that adjusted for the extra oxygen from the increased ethanol blends, catalyst temperatures were cooler on average. 33 In fact, ACE argues that these increased catalyst temperatures may be responsible for the average decreases in NO X emissions found in the DOE Study and RIT Study. See ACE's Comment, 8. c. EPA Response Regarding the Need for Long-Term Exhaust Emissions (Durability) Testing i. General Long-Term Exhaust Emissions (Durability) Concerns Ethanol impacts motor vehicles in two primary ways. First, as discussed below, ethanol enleans the A/F ratio (increases the proportion of oxygen relative to hydrocarbons) which can lead to increased exhaust gas temperatures and potentially increase incremental deterioration of emission control hardware and performance over time, possibly causing catalyst failure. Second, ethanol can cause materials compatibility issues, which may lead to other component failures (this will be discussed further in sections IV.A.3 and IV.A.4 below). Ultimately, either of these impacts may lead to emission increases. Due to the increased oxygen content of E15 relative to E10, motor vehicles operated on E15 will likely run even leaner than those operated on E10 depending on the vehicle technology and operating conditions. It is also relevant to note that all motor vehicles are emissions and durability tested for exhaust emissions certification purposes using an E0 fuel; therefore, this effect of changing from E10 to E15 will not be present during certification and compliance testing. Enleaned combustion leads to an increase in the temperature of the exhaust gases. This increase in exhaust gas temperatures has the potential to raise the temperatures of various exhaust system components ( e.g., exhaust valves, exhaust manifolds, catalysts, and oxygen sensors) beyond their design limits. However, based on past experience, the most sensitive component is likely the catalyst, particularly in older motor vehicles with early catalyst technology. Catalyst durability is highly dependent on temperature, time, and feed gas composition. Catalyst temperatures must be controlled and catalyst deterioration minimized during all motor vehicle operation modes for the catalyst to maintain high conversion efficiency over the motor vehicle's full useful life (FUL). This is particularly important during high-load operation of a motor vehicle where the highest exhaust gas temperatures are typically encountered and the risk for catalyst deterioration is the greatest. Catalysts that exceed temperature thresholds will deteriorate at rates higher than expected, compromising the motor vehicles' ability to meet the required emission standards over their FUL. Extended catalyst exposure to higher exhaust temperatures can accelerate catalyst thermal deactivation mechanisms ( e.g., sintering of active precious metal sites, sintering of oxygen storage materials, and migration of active materials into inert support materials). While this damage can occur at a highly accelerated rate with a sudden change in temperature ( e.g., with a misfire allowing raw fuel to reach the catalyst), it is more likely to occur over time from elevated exhaust temperatures as may be experienced with frequent or even occasional exposure to E15. This deterioration may adversely affect a motor vehicle's ability to meet emissions standards, particularly after significant mileage accumulation. Some motor vehicles may be designed in ways that manage catalyst temperatures by compensating for the oxygen in the fuel under all operating conditions, including high loads. This is achieved by using a closed-loop fuel system that measures the A/F ratio and makes the appropriate corrections to maintain the A/F ratio in the very tight band of operation around stoichiometry necessary for optimum catalyst performance and reductions in HC, CO, and NO X emissions. The corrections can be applied to other areas of operation to achieve the desired A/F ratio. The part of the closed-loop fuel system that is responsible for the correction to the A/F ratio is referred to as “fuel trim.” The fuel trim adds or removes fuel to the engine in order to maintain the required A/F ratio. If the measured A/F ratio has insufficient oxygen or is “rich,” compared to what the engine needs, the fuel trim will instruct the fuel injectors to inject less fuel, making the A/F ratio “leaner.” The opposite is true if the measured A/F ratio has too much oxygen and needs to inject more fuel for a “richer” A/F ratio. The fuel trim is generally comprised of two major parts, short-term fuel trim and long-term or learned or adaptive fuel trim. Learned or adaptive fuel trim can also be applied to open-loop operation such as high-load or wide-open throttle to alleviate the catalyst temperature increases caused by operating on E15. However this practice has not been consistently employed by all manufacturers. ii. Response to Growth Energy's First Argument In its first argument Growth Energy asserted that long-term exhaust emissions testing (“durability testing”) is not required for E15 because EPA has waived durability testing for oxygenates in previous waiver decisions. The Agency believes that Growth Energy's waiver request application is different in substantial ways from previous oxygenate waiver applications that EPA has reviewed. Previous oxygenate waivers have, at most, resulted in increased fuel oxygen levels of up to around 2.7% by weight oxygen. E15, for the first time, would add significantly more oxygen to the fuel, up to around 5.5% by weight oxygen depending on the density of the gasoline to which ethanol is added. This increase in oxygen content is double the current oxygen content limit that EPA interprets to be substantially similar to motor vehicle gasoline used in the certification of motor vehicles. 34 Additionally, with the exception of the original E10 waiver, which was not granted through an EPA decision but through the operation of law, 35 and the Tertiary-butyl Alcohol waiver, which leads to oxygen content of about 1.6 percent, EPA has placed a condition on all other gasoline-alcohol waivers requiring a corrosion inhibitor to deal with the aggressive nature of these fuels. 34 See 73 FR 22277 (April 25, 2008). 35 See 44 FR 20777 (April 6, 1979). In addition to this very large increase in oxygen content compared to the waivers granted by EPA over 20 years ago, the emissions standards that motor vehicles must achieve have become much more stringent over time. As a result, emissions control systems have also changed significantly over time. The emissions controls systems of vehicles over the last 20 years have progressively become more dependent on the ability to control the deterioration of the emissions control system, especially the catalyst, to achieve compliance with the emissions standards over the full useful life of the motor vehicle. Of particular importance is the ability of emissions control systems over time to limit or control long-term deterioration by accounting for the oxygen level of the fuel. The oxygen content levels at issue in this waiver application raise serious concerns about long-term durability. This concern is supported by information in several studies. For both of these reasons, EPA rejects Growth Energy's claim that long-term exhaust emissions (durability) testing is not required for the E15 waiver request and that it would be arbitrary or capricious for EPA to require durability testing for this waiver. iii. Response to Growth Energy's Second Argument Growth Energy in its second argument concluded that E15 does not require long-term exhaust emissions (durability) test data, because, as they state, EPA may accept reasonable theoretical judgments as to the emission effects of a fuel as an alternative to the direct testing of motor vehicles. However, Growth Energy has not presented a reasonable and valid engineering theory to demonstrate that E15 will not detrimentally impact the durability of emissions control systems such that engines and vehicles can still meet their emissions standards while using E15. They point to fuel volatility specification, limited durability emissions testing, data regarding materials compatibility and driveability, as well as the collection of studies supplied in the application, coupled with 30 years of experience with using E10, as providing a rational basis for a theory that E15 would not cause long-term deterioration of the emissions control systems of motor vehicles. However, this is not an engineering theory or an engineering analysis. Growth Energy has not analyzed the design of emissions control systems and their changes over time, as emissions standards have increasingly become more stringent. Nor has Growth Energy explained from an engineering perspective why in theory the oxygen levels found in E15 should not lead to durability problems for the emissions control system when used over time. Instead, Growth Energy points to the same information as both the source of its theory as well as the data used to confirm its theory. This highlights the circular nature of Growth Energy's argument, as well as the absence of an engineering analysis that identifies and explains any theory Growth Energy relies upon. Absent such a theory, one would perform the durability testing and draw conclusions from such testing about the impact of E15 on long-term durability. In essence, Growth Energy is suggesting that the data and testing it presents provides such an evidentiary basis and is as credible as data gathered from actual long-term durability testing for drawing such conclusions. Instead of presenting a reasoned engineering theory and data to confirm it, they are presenting what amounts to an alternative evidentiary basis to long-term durability testing. However, the information that Growth Energy relies on is not adequate to provide such a basis. For example, the RIT Study that Growth Energy cites does not support the conclusions that Growth Energy draws from this test program. Specifically, Growth Energy argues that because the RIT Study had run 10 motor vehicles over 75,000 miles without any serious issues, a reasonable theory concerning E15's effects on long-term durability may be inferred. However, 10 motor vehicles run over 75,000 miles on E20 is only an average of 7,500 miles per motor vehicle. This is substantially lower than the 100,000/120,000 full useful life of the motor vehicles in the test program. Similarly, Growth Energy argues that the expanded RIT Study ran 400 motor vehicles over 1.5 million combined miles without significant issues. However, 400 motor vehicles run over 1.5 million miles is an average of 3,750 miles per motor vehicle. Additionally, Growth Energy suggests that RIT found decreases in the emissions of regulated pollutants in RIT's 400-vehicle driveability study, but no actual emissions testing on those motor vehicles was performed. In the updated RIT summary that Growth Energy submitted during the comment period, RIT had not conducted any additional motor vehicle emissions testing since the earlier summary. Although the initial emissions testing conducted in 2008 may suggest decreases in regulated pollutants, it does not address concerns that increased ethanol levels in gasoline may lead to increased exhaust temperatures, increased catalyst deterioration, and increased emissions over time. Since the RIT study only performed emissions testing on 10 of the vehicles (4 of which were Ford F250 trucks), and the mileage accumulated on E20 for each vehicle was far less than the 120,000 mile FUL, it is not possible to draw adequate conclusions concerning long-term emissions from the RIT Study even after the completion of the test program. The Agency finds that none of the other studies or information cited by Growth Energy specifically addresses the concern with the effect of increased exhaust temperatures due to increased ethanol levels and how that will impact the motor vehicles' ability to meet their emissions standards over their useful life. The studies and material may provide information relative to other aspects of ethanol impacts but fall short of providing any substantive information on the long-term effects of midlevel gasoline-ethanol blends on emissions control systems. Nor do any of the studies that Growth Energy cites provide sufficient information to lead the Agency to believe that there will not be long-term durability concerns. Growth Energy did not provide any data or analysis of warranty or repair information from in-use experience with E10 vs. E0 with which to assess what the impact has been over the last 30 years from the use of E10 in the in-use fleet, nor any information showing how the results of such an analysis would change with the use of E15. Therefore, we do not agree with Growth Energy that durability testing is not required. The Agency concludes that the studies and other information cited in Growth Energy's waiver request application, and its public comments, do not demonstrate that E15 is not likely to have adverse impacts on the long-term exhaust emissions (durability) of the emissions control system over the full useful life of motor vehicles. The DOE Pilot Study, the CRC Screening Study, the Orbital Study, comments from the automobile manufacturers, and our engineering judgment, as discussed below, all indicate that legitimate concerns exist that E15 could accelerate the deterioration of the catalysts in a sizeable portion of the national fleet, leading to increased emissions. Therefore, EPA finds that the limited durability testing and other information relied upon by Growth Energy is not adequate by itself to determine the long-term durability impact of E15 on exhaust emissions control systems. d. Durability Studies and EPA Analysis A number of regulatory actions have taken place since 2000 which have placed an emphasis on real-world testing of motor vehicles, which in turn has led to changes in emission control systems. First, the Compliance Assurance Program, more commonly known as CAP2000, took effect with MY2001 motor vehicles and was designed to place more emphasis on the “in-use” performance (or the performance of motor vehicles once they are in customer service) of motor vehicle emission controls with motor vehicles operating nationwide on the different available fuels. The In-Use Verification Program (IUVP) introduced under CAP2000 requires manufacturers to perform exhaust and evaporative emissions tests on customer motor vehicles at low and high mileage intervals. This emphasis on real-world motor vehicle testing provided manufacturers with increased incentive to consider the impacts of different marketplace fuels, including E10, when developing and testing their emissions control systems. Second, by MY2004, Supplemental Federal Test Procedure (SFTP) emissions standards were fully phased in. SFTP emissions standards expanded vehicle emission testing to better represent actual consumer driving habits and conditions by including the US06 test (a high speed and high acceleration cycle), the SCO3 test (an air conditioning test cycle run in an environmental test chamber at 95 °F), and a 20 °F cold test run on the Federal Test Procedure (FTP) cycle. In response to these requirements manufacturers developed more robust emissions control systems (such as systems using wide range oxygen sensors) capable of withstanding the higher temperatures experienced during these more severe cycles without simply relying on enriching of the A/F ratio, causing emissions to rise. Third, beginning with MY2004, the Agency implemented its current and most stringent emission standards—the Tier 2 standards, with full implementation for light-duty motor vehicles and trucks and medium duty passenger motor vehicles completed by MY2007. Importantly, in order to comply with Tier 2 full useful life requirements, additional changes were required to ensure the durability of the exhaust and evaporative emission control systems over “real world” conditions. As a result of all of these standards, Tier 2 motor vehicles ( i.e. motor vehicles subject to the Tier 2 standards) are more technologically advanced and robust than cars built years ago. These motor vehicles have improved hardware as well as more sophisticated emissions control systems and strategies to help maintain catalyst effectiveness throughout the extended motor vehicle operating range over which emissions performance must be maintained. Motor vehicles now have the ability to precisely adjust for changes in the A/F ratio of the engine and ultimately maintain peak catalyst efficiency under almost any condition, such as exposure to oxygenated fuels like those containing ethanol. Auto manufacturers now warrant their new motor vehicles to operate on gasoline-ethanol blends up to E10. While the Tier 2 regulations allowed new motor vehicles to phase-in to the Tier 2 standards from MY2004-2009, actual manufacturer certification data indicates that gasoline-fueled motor vehicles reached full phase-in with MY2007. MY2004-2006 motor vehicles include a mix of Tier 2 and “interim non-Tier 2” motor vehicles. Only some flexible-fueled vehicles (FFVs) and diesel motor vehicles remained as interim non-Tier 2 motor vehicles in MY2008 and 2009. To comply with the stringent Tier 2 standards, manufacturers must minimize deterioration of the emissions control system over a motor vehicle's FUL of 120,000 miles (40 CFR 86.1811-04). In particular, catalyst deterioration must be minimized and catalyst temperatures controlled during all motor vehicle operation modes for the catalyst to work properly ( i.e., for it to maintain the necessary high efficiency demanded by the Tier 2 standards). To do so, some manufacturers incorporated learned or adaptive fuel trim into their motor vehicle designs to help control the A/F ratio and alleviate catalyst temperature increases even under open-loop conditions. Others, through careful hardware selection and certain calibration approaches, designed their motor vehicles with higher thermal margins to accommodate the effects of enleanment with gasoline-ethanol blends. Regardless of their approach, all manufacturers have warranted their Tier 2 vehicles for operation on E10, and we believe, based on available data, that they are capable of operating on gasoline-ethanol blends up to E15 as well. The test data that has been collected supports our engineering assessment. Several test programs were conducted by CRC, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory and DOE to study the effects of E15 on Tier 2 vehicles, with the key study being the recently completed DOE Catalyst Study, discussed in more detail below. The CRC Screening Study and the DOE Pilot Study measured exhaust and catalyst temperature and/or evaluated the ability of motor vehicles to apply learned fuel trim to adjust for the enleanment due to ethanol during open-loop operation. As discussed above, leaner, hotter exhaust subjects the catalyst to greater risk of high temperatures and long-term catalyst deterioration and damage, and applying the learned fuel trim to open-loop operation is one of several methods manufacturers use to protect against this. Since roughly half of the motor vehicles tested in these test programs, including roughly half of the Tier 2 motor vehicles, did not apply learned fuel trim, and those motor vehicles that did not apply learned fuel trim experienced higher catalyst and exhaust temperatures with E15, these screening studies highlighted the potential for concern. However, the lack of compensating for ethanol content while in open-loop operation indicates only the potential for temperature problems to occur, and elevated temperatures only indicate the potential for catalyst deterioration; motor vehicles that do not apply learned fuel trim may still have sufficient thermal margins. To evaluate the actual impacts of E15 on Tier 2 motor vehicles, DOE performed a catalyst durability test program, 36 the DOE Catalyst Study, throughout 2009 and 2010 on 19 Tier 2 motor vehicle models from high sales volume models of the various light-duty motor vehicle manufacturers. The specific purpose of the program was to evaluate the long term effects of E0, E10, E15, and E20 on catalyst system durability. The program also provided other limited but valuable information relevant to today's partial waiver decision, such as materials compatibility, evaporative control system integrity, diagnostic system sensitivity and general driveability. Without the results from this test program, EPA would not have had the information necessary to properly assess the long-term exhaust emission (durability) performance of E15. Program results indicate that the changes manufacturers made (calibration, hardware, etc. ) to their motor vehicles to comply with the Tier 2 standards have in fact resulted in the capability of the motor vehicle catalysts to withstand the additional enleanment caused by E15, regardless of whether or not the motor vehicles utilized learned fuel trim while in open-loop operation. The test program results show that a representative cross section of the Tier 2 fleet maintained their exhaust emission performance on E15 over the full useful life of the motor vehicles. The discussion which follows contains a description of the DOE Catalyst Study and presents and analyzes its results. 36 Catalyst Durability Study, Department of Energy Tier 2 vehicle testing completed September 2010. Final report due early 2011. i. DOE Catalyst Study Overview The Intermediate Ethanol Blends Emissions Controls Durability Test Program (“DOE Catalyst Study”) was established in 2008, following enactment of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, to investigate the potential impacts of gasoline-ethanol blend levels above 10% on the durability of vehicle emissions control systems. The program was subcontracted to Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), Transportation Research Center (TRC) and Environmental Testing Corporation (ETC). ii. Vehicle Selection and Matching Several relevant criteria were used to determine the motor vehicle models selected: • Tier-2 compliant. • Manufacturer and sales/registration volumes. • Whether a motor vehicle did or did not apply learned fuel trim (LFT or non-LFT, respectively) at wide-open throttle (WOT). Other studies also impacted selection: EPA's EPAct motor vehicle study at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) which was expanded into the CRC's E-89 study, 37 CRC's E-87-1 study (CRC Screening Study), and the DOE Pilot Study. Based on the motor vehicle models EPA used to represent the Tier 2 fleet in the CRC E-89 study, DOE consulted with CRC and then instructed the national laboratories to utilize the same set of motor vehicle models for the long-term durability studies, with one exception (at the request of CRC, they switched out a Toyota Sienna for a Nissan Quest). 37 E-89, Energy Policy Act (EPAct) Light-duty Vehicle Fuel Effects. (EPA and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are sponsoring extensive testing of ethanol fuel effects in connection with project E-89.) All the motor vehicles within a model set (one motor vehicle for each fuel tested within a model) were matched to prevent confounding of the data by undesirable motor vehicle attribute changes. The engine family, engine displacement, evaporative emissions control family, model year, powertrain control unit calibration, axle ratios, wheel size, and tire size were constrained to be identical within a motor vehicle set. Physical inspections of the motor vehicles to eliminate obvious problematic motor vehicles (such as those with gross fluid leaks, obvious and excessive body damage, etc. ) were also a part of the selection. Pre-owned motor vehicles' initial odometer readings were to be within 10,000 miles amongst a motor vehicle set. EN04NO10.000 iii. Fuels and Blending Emissions and related tests were conducted using an emissions certification gasoline and splash blending batches of E10, E15, and E20 on site. The gasoline-ethanol blends were blended from emissions certification gasoline and denatured fuel-grade ethanol. These emissions test fuels were termed E0 (for ethanol-free emissions fuel), E10 (for 10% ethanol emissions fuel), E15 (for 15% ethanol emissions fuel) and E20 (for 20% ethanol emissions fuel). Aging fuels were produced by splash blending fuel-grade ethanol with non-ethanol containing gasoline obtained commercially by the subcontractors in their local area, rather than emissions certification gasoline. The aging fuels were designated RE0, RE10, RE15, and RE20 with “R” conveying blending from retail gasoline. iv. Emissions Test Protocol Motor vehicles were subjected to emissions (FTP) and related tests at the following points during the test program: (1) At the beginning of mileage accumulation; (2) at least one mid-mileage point; and (3) at the end of mileage accumulation. DOE consulted with CRC on recommended testing procedures. At SwRI and TRC, the acceptance tests also included WOT tests to aid in classifying the vehicles as either LFT or non-LFT motor vehicles. At each emissions test interval, duplicate FTP tests were conducted on each motor vehicle using both the gasoline-ethanol blend assigned to the motor vehicle as well as E0. ( i.e. the “E15” motor vehicle received duplicate FTPs on both E15 and E0.) The motor vehicles also underwent compression and leak-down checks at each emissions interval. Tier 2 compliant motor vehicles were driven up to their full-useful life (120,000 miles). The initial mileages of the Tier 2 motor vehicles ranged from near zero to approximately 50,000 miles. These vehicles were driven approximately 70,000-120,000 miles during the program. New motor vehicles were first aged to 4,000 miles to stabilize the engine and emissions control systems, followed by the initial emissions test. The motor vehicles then accumulated mileage until the first mid-aging emissions tests at 60,000 miles. This cycle was then repeated to 90,000 miles for the motor vehicles under test at ETC. At TRC and SwRI, the 90,000 mile emissions tests were not conducted. All vehicles ended aging at 120,000 miles. Pre-owned motor vehicle sets with less than 70,000 miles at the start were mid-aging tested at 95,000 miles with end-of-aging tests at 120,000 miles. v. Mileage Accumulation The standard road cycle (SRC) was used for all aging. The SRC is the official EPA driving cycle used for aging in the whole motor vehicle exhaust durability procedure. This is a recommended EPA procedure that the manufacturers regularly use for verifying full useful life emissions capability. It has an average speed of 46.3 mph and a maximum of 75 mph. The Nissan Quest aging was changed part way through aging to a series of steady speed laps on the test track at TRC at DOE's direction to accelerate completion of this motor vehicle set. ETC and SwRI used mileage accumulation dynamometers (MADs) for aging. Motor vehicles at TRC were aged on a closed test track. Drivers followed the SRC as they drove the motor vehicles around the track. To complete the test program required motor vehicles to undergo anywhere from six to nine months of mileage accumulation and emission testing. vi. Powertrain Component Inspection At the end of motor vehicle mileage accumulations and emissions testing at SwRI, six pairs of engines were disassembled and analyzed for signs of wear and materials compatibility problems of concern with gasoline-ethanol blends that might indicate durability concerns with E15 that did not show up in the accelerated aging testing performed. 38 The eight different types of evaluations performed included: 38 Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) Project 08-58845 Status Report, “Powertrain Component Inspection from Mid-Level Blends Vehicle Aging Study,” September 6, 2010. EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-14016. • Evaporative Emission System Integrity Check—a low pressure smoke leak test. • Evaporative Canister Butane Working Capacity Check. • Cam Lobe Wear—measuring overall cam height to indicate wear. • Valve Seat Width and Valve Surface Contour—to measure wear on the valve seat. • Valve Stem Height—to assess valve seat recession. • Intake Valve Deposit measurement. • ASTM D5185 Analysis of Engine Oil Drain Samples—to assess the presence of unusually high levels of wear metals. • Fuel Pump Flow Evaluation. vii. Summary and Conclusions of the Final Results of the DOE Catalyst Study Tier 2 motor vehicle testing concluded in late September. Analysis of the FUL emissions performance and emissions deterioration rates showed no significant difference between the E0 and E15 fueled groups. As shown in Tables 2 and 3 below, three E0 aged motor vehicles had failing emissions levels at the end of the test program and one additional motor vehicle failed one of several replicate tests. Two E15 aged motor vehicles had failing emissions levels at the end of the test program. However, none of the emissions failures appeared to be associated with the differences in the aging fuels. There were no emissions component or material failures during aging that were related to fueling. There was a catalyst efficiency fault code on an E0 motor vehicle but not on the E15 counterpart. 39 Our assessment of motor vehicles that exceeded emissions standards at FUL mileage accumulation is that the exceedances were not attributable to the fuel used. Table IV.A-2—E0 FUL Results Compared to Tier 2 Standards 39 Year Model LFT@WOT NO X NMOG CO 2007 Accord N Pass Pass Pass. 2006 Silverado Y Pass Pass Pass. 2008 Altima N Pass Fail Pass. 2008 Taurus Y Pass Pass Pass. 2007 Caravan N Pass Pass Pass. 2006 Cobalt N Pass Pass Pass. 2007 Caliber N Fail Pass Pass. 2009 Civic N Pass Pass Pass. 2009 Explorer Y Pass Pass Pass. 2009 Corolla Y Pass Pass Pass. 2009 Liberty N Pass Pass Pass. 2005 Tundra Y Pass Pass Pass. 2006 Impala Y Pass Pass Pass. 2005 F150 Y Pass Pass Pass. 2006 Quest N N/A N/A N/A. 2009 Outlook Y Pass Pass Pass. 2009 Camry Y Pass Pass Pass. 2009 Focus Y Fail Pass Pass. 2009 Odyssey N Pass * Pass Pass. Total Fails 2 1 0. * Denotes that average of emissions tests were below applicable FUL standard, but had at least one test value above the applicable FUL standard. Table IV.A-3—E15 FUL Results Compared to Tier 2 Standards 40 Year Model LFT@WOT NO X NMOG CO 2007 Accord N Pass Pass Pass. 2006 Silverado Y Pass Pass Pass. 2008 Altima N Pass Pass Pass. 2008 Taurus Y Pass Pass Pass. 2007 Caravan N Pass Pass Pass. 2006 Cobalt N Pass Pass Pass. 2007 Caliber N Pass Pass Pass. 2009 Civic N Pass Pass Pass. 2009 Explorer Y Pass Pass Pass. 2009 Corolla Y Pass Pass Pass. 2009 Liberty N Pass Pass Pass. 2005 Tundra Y Pass Pass Pass. 2006 Impala Y Pass Pass Pass. 2005 F150 Y Pass Pass Pass. 2006 Quest N Fail Pass Pass. 2009 Outlook Y Pass Pass Pass. 2009 Camry Y Pass Pass Pass. 2009 Focus Y Fail Pass Pass. 2009 Odyssey N Pass Pass Pass. Total Fails 2 0 0. * Denotes that average of emissions tests were below applicable FUL standard, but had at least one test value above the applicable FUL standard. Using standard statistical tools, the resulting test results shown in Tables IV.A-2 and IV.A-3 support the conclusion that E15 does not cause Tier 2 motor vehicles to exceed their exhaust emission standards over their useful life. 40 Our assessment of motor vehicles that exceeded emissions standards at FUL mileage accumulation is that the exceedances were not attributable to the fuel used. We performed a statistical analysis of this emission data to assess the impact of E15 on the rate of deterioration of exhaust emissions. We used a general linear model in SPSS TM to perform this analysis. Each individual test motor vehicle was allowed its own base level of emissions ( e.g., the Taurus aged on E0 was allowed one base emission level and the Taurus aged on E15 was allowed a different base emission level). This reflects the fact that individual motor vehicles, even of the same design, have emissions levels that differ to at least the same order of magnitude as the effect of fuel quality on emissions. Each model type ( e.g., all of the Taurus motor vehicles as a group) was also allowed its own rate of emissions deterioration. This reflects the fact that motor vehicle design has a significant impact on the rate of emissions deterioration. We then tested the hypothesis that the effect of aging the motor vehicle on E15 caused a non-zero change in the rate of change in non-methane organic gases (NMOG) and NO X emissions. Each emission test was weighted to reflect the number of replicates performed on that motor vehicle at a specific mileage test point. For example, if only two replicate tests were performed on the Taurus aged on E0 at it mid-level test point ( i.e., 67,000 miles), then each emission test was assigned a weight of 0.5. If three replicate tests were performed at that mileage, then each emission test was assigned a weight of 0.33. The statistical analysis of the remaining Tier 2 exhaust emission data indicated that the rate of deterioration in NMOG emissions decreased on average, while that for NO X emissions increased. However, the impacts were not statistically significant deterioration at the 90% confidence level. 41 Thus, due to the variability in the effect across the various test motor vehicles, we cannot confidently reject the hypothesis that the emission deterioration rates on both blends are the same. In other words, there is a significant chance that the average impacts observed are the result of the randomness in the data. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the average changes in NMOG and NO X emissions deterioration rates went in opposite directions. If the catalysts had in fact been deteriorating faster with E15, then all emissions should have deteriorated consistently. Therefore, the catalyst durability test program results also support the conclusion that E15 will not contribute to Tier 2 motor vehicles exceeding their emission standards over their full useful life. The details of this statistical analysis can be found in an EPA Technical Summary located in the docket to this waiver decision. 42 41 The Agency has typically used a confidence level of 90% in CAA section 211(f)(4) waiver requests instead of the more conventional 95% confidence level. We feel that the 90% confidence level increases the likelihood that increases in deterioration would be statistically significant and therefore would be more conservative in this case. However, these differences are also not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. 42 Technical Summary of DOE Study on E15 Impacts On Tier 2 Vehicles and Southwest Research Teardown Report. EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211. The results of the vehicle tear-down inspections were analyzed to assess whether E15 exhibited any signs of wear or materials incompatibility that might indicate durability concerns that could lead to elevated exhaust or evaporative emissions that might not have shown up in the FUL emission testing performed. 43 For seven of the eight evaluations performed, there were no apparent differences at the end-of-life between the motor vehicles that were operated on E15 and E0. While individual motor vehicle results varied (as one would expect in inspections such as this), there was no pattern that would suggest greater deterioration on E15, and none of the measurements indicated are a cause for a concern over powertrain durability for the Tier 2 motor vehicles evaluated. The one area where motor vehicles aged on E15 differed in their results was intake valve deposits. E15 showed a consistent and often significant increase in intake valve deposits in comparison to E0. This is not surprising given that prior detergent additive studies have shown E10 to be a more severe test fuel for intake valve deposits than E0. For this very reason the fuel on which fuel additive manufacturers must certify their detergent additive packages contains 10 vol% ethanol. Since the Tier 2 motor vehicles did not show increased exhaust emission deterioration over their FUL with E15 in comparison to E0, the increased intake valve deposits do not appear to have lead to a corresponding emissions increase. As a result, the finding that E15 leads to increased intake valve deposits appears to be primarily an issue to be addressed in future gasoline detergent additive formulations. 43 Ibid. Finally, the CRC engine durability study 44 has limited relevance for the waiver decision because it used only E20 fuel. Initial data is for eight motor vehicles ranging from MY2001-2009 with initial mileage as high as 110,000 miles. The engines were removed and dynamometer-aged for 500 hours with 50% of the time at wide-open throttle (3500 rpm). Since the study used only E20 fuel and did not test matching engines aged on E0, there is no way to determine the influence of the fuel blend on engine deterioration. There were some elevated leakdown measurements observed in the study but there is no way to determine if they were fuel blend related or would have occurred even with E0 fuel. Also, several motor vehicles were listed as failing the leak tests yet the motor vehicles passed the leak test at later points in the study. In any event, all the engines that completed aging passed their motor vehicle emissions tests. 44 CRC Project No. CM-136-09-1B Engine Durability Study of Mid-Level Ethanol blends, EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-14003.5. 2. Exhaust Emissions—Immediate Effects for MY2007 and Newer Light-Duty Motor Vehicles Instantaneous or immediate impacts of a fuel or fuel additive are those that are experienced essentially immediately upon switching from the original fuel. In the case of this partial waiver decision, the immediate exhaust emission impacts of interest are those that are caused by E15 in comparison to E0, which is the fuel on which the motor vehicles were certified. The immediate exhaust emission impacts must be taken into consideration along with the long-term or durability emission impacts discussed in the previous section in assessing the waiver. This section discusses the immediate exhaust emission impacts on MY2007 and newer light-duty motor vehicles. Discussion of immediate exhaust emission impacts on other motor vehicles is addressed in their respective sections. However, since Growth Energy's submission and information supplied by commenters regarding immediate emission impacts of E15 were not specific to the model year of the motor vehicles, this section also contains much of the information on immediate emission impacts for other vehicles as well. a. Growth Energy's Submission Growth Energy supplied data produced from several test programs that measured the immediate emission impacts of E15 on motor vehicles spanning a range of model years, including several Tier 2 motor vehicles. Growth Energy claims that the ACE Study. 45 the RIT Study, the Minnesota Center for Automotive Research (MCAR) Study, 46 and a DOE Pilot Study show that E15 results in decreased emissions of NO X , non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and CO on average, and no increase in NMOG emissions when compared to E0. Growth Energy argues that these studies demonstrate that E15 will not cause or contribute to the failure of motor vehicles to meet their emissions standards. While much of the data cited by Growth Energy was on E20, they argued that because the studies they submitted with their application show favorable emissions performance on gasoline-ethanol blends that contained higher than 15 vol% ethanol ( i.e., E20), those results should be applicable to E15 by interpolation. 45 Optimal Ethanol Blend-level Investigation, Final Report prepared by Energy & Environmental Research Center and Minnesota Center for Automotive research for American Coalition for Ethanol “ACE Study”. EPA Docket # EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-0002.26. 46 Use of Mid-Range Ethanol/Gasoline Blends in Unmodified Passenger Cars and Light Duty Trucks, prepared by Minnesota Center for Automotive research July 1999 “MCARStudy.” EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-0002.24. b. Public Comment Summary The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (“The Alliance”) and several others commented that EPA has repeatedly outlined in past waiver decisions and public presentations important methodological considerations necessary to conduct a rigorous test program which would provide data sufficient to satisfy waiver criteria. 47 Comments from the Alliance describe the data requirements EPA has required in the past, specifically noting that those test programs required the following: (1) Use representative test fleets of motor vehicles available in the market; (2) conduct back-to-back motor vehicle pair testing to control for variability; (3) compare test fuel results with a baseline certification fuel; (4) use Federal certification test procedures (FTP) for emissions testing; (5) evaluate emissions effects over the full useful life for durability testing through real-world aging; and (6) perform statistical analyses to provide defensible results. The Alliance went on in their comments to highlight deficiencies in one or more of these data requirements in each of the studies cited by Growth Energy. 47 See Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers Comments, National Petrochemical and Refiners Association, the American Petroleum Institute's Comments, and the Alliance for the Safe Alternative Fuels Environment comments in EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211. Additionally, the Alliance and others argue that none of the studies submitted by Growth Energy used nationally “representative” test fleets. The Alliance points out that the American automobile fleet takes about 20 years to turn over, and that a well-executed study should have a test fleet that is proportionally similar to the model years that comprise the national fleet. The Alliance argues that a bulk of the emissions data cited in Growth Energy's waiver request focus on newer ( i.e., Tier 2) motor vehicles and do not adequately represent the national motor vehicle fleet and that these older motor vehicles may be more sensitive to the effects of higher gasoline-ethanol blends and constitute a greater portion of the number of motor vehicles currently in use. Many comments recommend that the Agency deny Growth Energy's request based on the potentially adverse effects of E15 on older motor vehicles. Several commenters, including the automobile manufacturers, petroleum refiners, environmental organizations and State agencies, noted the expected linear relationship between ethanol content in gasoline-ethanol blends and increased NO X emissions. These commenters pointed out that the EPA Predictive Models, MOVES model and the MOBILE6.2 model all predicted increased NO X emissions as a gasoline-ethanol blend increases the ethanol content. These models are used for air quality modeling purposes for compliance with State and Federal air quality standards and are based on comprehensive motor vehicle testing spanning decades. These commenters argued further that these increases in NO X may cause a sizable portion of the motor vehicle fleet to exceed emissions standards, especially if a motor vehicle was close to the emissions standard. c. EPA Analysis The Agency agrees with commenters that there are several limitations of the studies cited by Growth Energy and/or the analyses they performed, which undermine their conclusions. The ACE study cited by Growth Energy does not provide useful information to assess the emissions performance of motor vehicles for purposes of this waiver decision since it tested three non-flex fuel Tier 2 motor vehicles primarily under high-speed and high-load conditions, atypical of most in-use motor vehicle operation and not representative of motor vehicle certification conditions. The study likely shows that the high heat of vaporization and high octane of ethanol can enhance vehicle performance under wide-open throttle conditions and high loads, but the Agency believes that it is not relevant for evaluating emissions under normal operating conditions as observed on properly loaded motor vehicles tested on certification test cycles generally required for a waiver emission impacts demonstration. The RIT Study cited by Growth Energy was an interim report of ongoing work in which E0 and E20 fuels were tested in 10 1998-2004 model year motor vehicles from the Monroe County Fleet Center, none of which were designed to comply with Tier 2 emission standards. The emissions testing performed at the time of Growth Energy's application failed to properly measure emissions related to the ethanol ( i.e., alcohols and aldehydes) which contribute to the NMOG emissions. Furthermore, the testing schedule did not perform back-to-back testing of the different fuels at common motor vehicle mileage intervals, thus confounding fuel and normal deterioration effects. As discussed below, we believe these shortcomings were subsequently corrected in later testing through the support of the NREL, but the data cited by Growth Energy could not be used to quantify the immediate emissions impacts of E15. The MCAR Study cited by Growth Energy tested 15 motor vehicles of various model years from 1985 to 1998. However, the emissions were measured over only a hot portion of the certification cycle and the individual test results needed for analysis were never submitted or made available to the Agency. Therefore, it could not be used to compare the emissions performance of the motor vehicles to the emissions standards. Furthermore, since only E10 and E30 were tested, it cannot be used to quantify the immediate emission impacts relative to the official E0 certification fuel. Only the DOE Pilot Study cited by Growth Energy provides useful information for assessing the immediate exhaust emission impacts of E15. It measured emissions from 16 vehicles, including seven Tier 2 compliant motor vehicles, on E0, E10, E15, and E20 splash blends over the LA92 drive cycle. However, even it is of limited usefulness in drawing conclusions regarding the impact of E15 across the large in-use motor vehicle fleet due to the limited size and nature of the test program (fleet makeup, test fuels). The DOE Pilot Study was not designed to quantify the emissions impact across the fleet but instead to probe a limited sample of high sales volume motor vehicles certified to different emission standards for any immediate emission problems. By itself, it is not a basis for drawing any definitive conclusions with respect to E15 emissions performance. Thus, each of the individual studies is of limited value in evaluating the immediate emissions impact of E15 across the various groups of motor vehicles at issue in this partial waiver decision. As a group, these studies are no stronger as they do not fill the gaps in each of the various studies. Therefore, the Agency does not believe that the studies submitted by Growth Energy adequately support the conclusions that Growth Energy drew from them regarding the immediate exhaust emission impacts from using E15. At the same time, the Agency believes that there is sufficient data and information available to demonstrate that the immediate emissions impact of E15 follows the same pattern as E10 in that there will be a decrease in NMOG (as well as NMHC and total HC) and CO emissions and an increase in NO X emissions. While the magnitude of the NO X emissions increase is greater with E15 it is still not enough to cause at least Tier 2 compliant motor vehicles to violate their NO X emissions standard. There is a long history of test programs that have been carried out on light-duty motor vehicles and trucks that have quantified the emission impacts of blending ethanol up to 10 vol% into gasoline. These test programs, dating back to the earliest days of gasoline-ethanol blends, have found that the oxygen content of ethanol enleans the A/F ratio in motor vehicles during open-loop operation, causing a decrease in HC and CO emissions, but also results in a corresponding increase in NO X emissions. These test programs have also shown that during normal closed-loop operation the combustion characteristics of ethanol contribute to small increases in NO X emissions. There are other factors that can play into the emission impacts, such as other changes to gasoline that occur or are made when ethanol is added, the high heat of vaporization and high octane of ethanol, and the design and control algorithms of the motor vehicle. However, similar emission trends with ethanol have been seen consistently in most carefully controlled and properly conducted studies. These studies have been used to develop emission models, such as the EPA Predictive Models 48 incorporated into the Agency's MOVES model, 49 that have been thoroughly peer reviewed. The result is that for a typical E10 blend of gasoline, exhaust NMHC emissions have been found to decrease by about 5%, and NO X emissions to increase by about 6%, relative to E0. 50 48 A detailed description of the development of the EPA Predictive Models is available in a Technical Support Document: “Analysis of California's Request for Waiver of the Reformulated Gasoline Oxygen Content Requirement for California Covered Areas”, EPA420-R-01-016, June 2001. 49 The Agency's MOVES model has undergone extensive peer review and testing, and incorporates the EPA Predictive Models. 50 These effects are based on the EPA Predictive Models and are generally consistent with conclusions of CRC E-74b report ( e.g., Figure ES-2). Fuels properties evaluated were based on market averages and were as follows: E0 had aromatics content of 29.5 vol%, a T50 of 215 °F, a T90 of 325 °F, and an RVP of 8.9 psi and E10 had aromatics content of 24.9 vol%, a T50 of 202 °F, T90 of 325 °F, and an RVP of 8.9 psi. Other parameters not mentioned here were assumed to be held constant between the blends. While the magnitude of impact may vary by a few percent depending on the motor vehicle technology and how other fuel properties change when ethanol is blended into gasoline, the relative magnitude and direction of the impacts remains consistent for typical fuels. 51 51 Results based on data mostly from vehicle models that predated the Tier 2 emission standards, so several recent test programs have been focused on Tier 2 vehicles that will soon make up the majority of the in-use fleet. While there is a great deal known about the immediate impacts of gasoline-ethanol blends on emissions from the past studies and modeling, it is all based on pre-Tier 2 motor vehicles and only ethanol blends up to E10. The issue for the waiver is whether the impacts of E15 would be significantly different in comparison to E0 and cause motor vehicles to violate their emission standards over their full useful life, and whether there is sufficient information to support such a conclusion for Tier 2 motor vehicles as well as other motor vehicles. While the information provided by Growth Energy was of limited value, we believe that the additional information that is now available can be used to assess the immediate emissions impacts on Tier 2 motor vehicles sufficiently to respond to the E15 waiver request. CRC recently completed a test program (E-74b) that evaluated the emissions performance of E10 and E20 compared with E0 (“CRC Emissions Study”). 52 The study tested 15 MY1994-2006 motor vehicles on E0, E10, and E20. The motor vehicles represented a cross-section of several motor vehicle technologies and emissions compliance levels, and included three Tier 1, five NLEV, and seven Tier 2 motor vehicles. The test fuels were match-blended to yield appropriate test program volatility goals while attempting to maintain other desired property targets, such as aromatics content and distillation behavior. The study's authors attempted to evaluate increased oxygen levels through the blending of ethanol in a variety of gasolines with fuel parameters representative of those found in the real world. Emissions performance testing was completed using the FTP at 75 °F and 50 °F. The study found a statistically significant positive linear relationship between the amount of ethanol blended into gasoline and NO X emissions when controlling other fuel parameters. In other words, as the level of ethanol blended into gasoline increased, the amount of NO X emissions also increased, and this effect remained relatively consistent across the motor vehicle technologies tested. Specifically, the study found that NO X emissions increased with E10 by about 9% relative to E0, consistent with the projection from the EPA Predictive Models when the study's fuel properties are input. NO X emissions for E20 increased by about 19% relative to E0. The test program also found that HC emissions declined from 8% to 16% over this same range. While not linear, a relationship of decreasing emissions with increasing ethanol content was also observed for CO emissions. Presumably the impacts of E15, had they tested it, would have fallen somewhere between those of E10 and E20. 52 CRC Report No. E-74b, “Effects of Vapor Pressure, Oxygen Content, and Temperature on CO Exhaust Emissions”, May 2009, EPA Docket #EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0211-13980. The DOE Pilot Study cited by Growth Energy tested 16 different MY1999-2007 light-duty motor vehicles on E0, E10, E15 and E20. These motor vehicles inclu [Text truncated at 120,000 characters. The full text is on the page linked above.] --- Source: Frix Law Library, https://www.frixlaw.com/law-library/documents/fr%3A2010-27432. Public record. Not legal advice.