# Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012: Cost and Other Potential Issues > Briefs, arguments, decisions, and more. URL: https://www.frixlaw.com/law-library/documents/crs%3AR40682 ## Record - **Collection:** Congressional research report - **Document type:** CRS Report - **Published:** July 2, 2009 - **Citation:** R40682 ## Text Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012: Cost and Other Potential Issues -name redactedSpecialist in U.S. Defense Policy and Budget July 2, 2009 Congressional Research Service 7-.... www.crs.gov R40682 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Summary In February and March 2009, the Obama Administration announced its plans to increase troop levels in Afghanistan and decrease troop levels in Iraq. In Afghanistan, 30,000 more troops are deploying this year while in Iraq, troops will gradually decline to 35,000 to 50,000 by August 31, 2011 with all troops to be out of Iraq by December 31, 2011. The most commonly cited measure of troop strength is “Boots on the Ground” or the number of troops located in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Based on average monthly Boots on the Ground figures, the number of troops in Afghanistan and Iraq increased from 5,200 in FY2002 to a peak of 187,900 in FY2008 primarily because of increases in Iraq beginning with the invasion in March 2003. In FY2009, total troop strength is expected to remain the same as planned increases in Afghanistan offset declines in Iraq. By FY2012, overall troop strength for the two wars is likely to decline to 67,500 when the withdrawal from Iraq is expected to be complete. For Afghanistan, troops in-country grew gradually from 5,200 in FY2002 to 20,400 in FY2006. Between FY2006 and FY2008, average strength there jumped by another 10,000 to 30,100. Under the Administration’s plans, CRS estimates that average monthly Boots on the Ground in Afghanistan may increase to 50,700 in FY2009 with a further increase to 63,500 the following year once all new units are in place. Currently, additional increases have not been approved. For Iraq, troops in-country nearly doubled between FY2003 and FY2004 reaching 130,600. By the following year, average strength grew by another 13,000 to 143,800, with that level maintained in FY2006. During the surge in troops initiated by President Bush, average troop strength in Iraq grew by 7,000 or 6% in FY2007 and another 9,500 or 9% in FY2008, reaching a peak of 157,800. CRS estimates that average troop strength in Iraq will decline to 135,600 in FY2009, 88,300 in FY2010, 42,800 in FY2011, and 4,100 in FY2012. While it is not clear whether war costs will change precisely in tandem with troop levels, these changes can provide a benchmark to assess requests. Based on changes in troop levels and other adjustments, CRS estimates that war costs could be about $8 billion less than the Department of Defense (DOD) $141 billion request for FY2009, and about $13 billion below its $130 billion request for FY2010. For the next year, FY2011, CRS estimates that DOD’s requests could be $42 billion more than the current planning figure of $50 billion. And in FY2012, CRS estimates war costs could be $20 billion higher than the Administration’s estimate of $50 billion. Although Boots on the Ground is the most commonly cited measure of troop strength, that measure does not include over 100,000 other troops deployed in the region providing theaterwide support for Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), the Afghan War, and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), the Iraq War. Before the 9/11 attacks, the United States had deployed about 26,000 troops in the Central Command region, which includes Afghanistan and Iraq. Based on the most comprehensive DOD measure of troop strength, 294,000 troops were deployed for OEF and OIF as of December 2008, a tenfold increase since 2001.This more inclusive measure may more accurately capture the overall demand for troops. The Administration has not indicated how its plans would affect troops providing support in the region. Using five DOD sources, this report describes, analyzes, and estimates the number of troops deployed for each war from the 9/11 attacks to FY2012 to help Congress assess upcoming DOD war funding requests as well as the implications for the long-term U.S. presence in the region. Congressional Research Service Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Contents Introduction: Obama Administration Plans for Afghanistan and Iraq............................................1 Wide Range in Deployed Troop Strengths in DOD Sources .........................................................3 In-Country Troop Strength: FY2002-FY2012 ..............................................................................8 Overall Changes in Troop Strength........................................................................................8 Overall Troop Strength Rises from FY2002-FY2008 .......................................................8 Likely Overall Declines: FY2008-FY2012 ......................................................................9 Cost Implications of Changes in Troop Strength: FY2009-FY2012............................................ 10 The Effects of Timing ......................................................................................................... 11 Changes in Afghanistan and Iraq ......................................................................................... 13 Estimated Troop Levels in Afghanistan in FY2009 ........................................................ 14 Estimated Troop Levels in Iraq in FY2009 .................................................................... 14 The FY2009 Supplemental and FY2010 War Request ......................................................... 15 Adjustments Affecting FY2009 ..................................................................................... 16 Potential Changes to DOD’s FY2010-FY2012 Requests................................................ 18 Potential Costs of Withdrawal ....................................................................................... 19 Potential Questions About Troop Strength and Cost....................................................... 20 Ways to Measure Troop Levels for the Afghan and Iraq Wars .................................................... 21 Policy Issues Raised by Differences in Troop Counts .......................................................... 22 Trends in Troop Levels From FY2002-FY2008 Using Five Alternative Sources ........................ 22 Trends for both the Afghan and Iraq Wars ........................................................................... 24 Allocating Troops Between the Afghan and Iraq Wars ......................................................... 26 Troop Levels for the Afghan War Since October 2001 ......................................................... 28 Initial Combat Operations ............................................................................................. 28 Troop Levels Grow Steadily From FY2003-FY2006 ..................................................... 30 Further Increases As Violence Rises After 2006............................................................. 31 Seasonal Variations ....................................................................................................... 32 Troops from Other Countries......................................................................................... 34 Troop Levels for the Iraq War Since the March 2003 Invasion............................................. 34 Initial Combat Operations ............................................................................................. 35 Troop Levels Plateau From FY2004-FY2006 ................................................................ 36 Troop Surge in FY2007 and FY2008............................................................................. 38 Changes from Month-to-Month..................................................................................... 39 Using Different Troop Strength Figures............................................................................... 40 Service Roles and Readiness Concerns...................................................................................... 41 Measuring the Burden of Deployment ................................................................................. 42 Figures Figure 1. Location of U.S. Troops Deployed for Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), December 2008 ......................................................................6 Figure 2. Average Monthly Troop Levels for the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2002FY2008: Five DOD Sources................................................................................................... 25 Congressional Research Service Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Figure 3. Share of Deployed Troops for Iraq in Boots on the Ground and Operations Reports, FY2003-FY2008 ...................................................................................................... 26 Figure 4. Share of Deployed Troops for Afghanistan in Boots on the Ground and Operations Reports, FY2002-FY2008 .................................................................................... 27 Figure 5. Average Monthly Troop Levels for the Afghan War, FY2002-FY2008: Five DOD Sources......................................................................................................................... 30 Figure 6. Monthly Boots on the Ground in Afghanistan and Troops Deployed for OEF Operations, September 2001-November 2008......................................................................... 33 Figure 7. Average Monthly Troop Levels for the Iraq War, FY2002-FY2008: Five DOD Sources .................................................................................................................................. 37 Figure 8. Monthly Boots on the Ground (BOG) in Iraq and Troops Deployed for OIF Operations, March 2003-November 2008............................................................................... 39 Figure 9. Service and Component Shares of OEF and OIF Troops in FY2008............................ 41 Tables Table 1. Average Monthly Boots On the Ground in Afghanistan and Iraq: FY2002FY2012....................................................................................................................................9 Table 2. Average Monthly Troop Levels by War, FY2006-FY2012 ............................................ 12 Table 3. Actual and Estimated DOD War Funding, FY2008-FY2012 ......................................... 17 Table 4. Average Monthly Troop Levels in Afghanistan and Iraq, FY2002-FY2008: Five DOD Sources......................................................................................................................... 23 Table 5. Average Monthly Troop Levels in the Afghan War, FY2002-FY2008: Five DOD Sources .................................................................................................................................. 29 Table 6. Average Monthly Troop Levels in the Iraq War, FY2002-FY2008: Five DOD Sources .................................................................................................................................. 35 Table 7. Percent of Each Service Deployed for OEF or OIF in FY2008 ..................................... 42 Table A-1. Estimating Troop Strength in Afghanistan and Iraq, FY2007-FY2012 ...................... 45 Table B-1. Average Cost per Brigade Combat Team- Equivalent in Afghanistan and Iraq, FY2005 and FY2008.............................................................................................................. 54 Table D-1. Monthly Headcounts for Boots on the Ground in Iraq and Operation Enduring Freedom: 2001-2009 .............................................................................................................. 62 Table D-2. Monthly Headcounts for Boots on the Ground in Iraq and Operation Iraqi Freedom, 2001-2009 .............................................................................................................. 64 Appendixes Appendix A. Actual and Estimated Troop Levels in Afghanistan and Iraq, FY2007FY2012.................................................................................................................................. 44 Appendix B. The Cost of an Average Brigade Combat Team: FY2005 and FY2008 ................... 52 Appendix C. CBO’s Projections of War Costs, FY2009-FY2018 ............................................... 59 Congressional Research Service Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Appendix D. Headcounts in Boots on the Ground and Operations Reports................................. 61 Contacts Author Contact Information ...................................................................................................... 67 Congressional Research Service Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 I n February and March 2009, the Obama Administration announced its overall plans to increase troop levels in Afghanistan and decrease troop levels in Iraq for 2009 through 2011. Using several Department of Defense (DOD) data reports, this report describes, analyzes, and estimates deployed troop strength from the 9/11 attacks to FY2012 to provide Congress with a tool to assess • current and future DOD war funding requests; • implications for the U.S. military presence in the region; and • deployment burdens on individual service members and each of the services. Introduction: Obama Administration Plans for Afghanistan and Iraq In February and March 2009, President Obama approved the deployment of an additional 21,000 service members to Afghanistan in the spring and summer of 2009, meeting most of the request from Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and General David McKiernan, former Commanding General of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in charge of the Afghan theater of operations. According to the President, these additional troops are intended to “stabilize a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan.”1 In the winter of 2008 before leaving office, President Bush approved deploying an additional Brigade Combat Team (BCT) of about 9,000 to Afghanistan in January 2009. Still pending is a DOD request for an additional 9,000 troops that could be deployed in Afghanistan sometime in the winter of 2009. Last October, General David McKiernan requested about 35,000 more combat troops for Afghanistan composed of four Brigade Combat Teams with support.2 Later, 4,000 trainers were added, bringing the total request to 39,000. About 30,000 of that request has been approved by either former President Bush or President Obama. With these increases, CRS estimates the number of U.S. troops deployed in Afghanistan is expected to reach about 63,450 by the end of FY2009, double that of the prior year; this estimate is somewhat lower than the Administration’s estimate of 68,000. If some 31,000 coalition troops from NATO nations serving in the International Security Assistance Force are included, average monthly foreign troop strength in Afghanistan would be about 81,000 in FY2009, and 93,450 in FY2010.3 These figures do not include from 10,000 to 17,000 more U.S. troops dedicated to Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), most of whom 1 White House, “Statement by the President on Afghanistan,” February 17, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Statement-by-the-President-on-Afghanistan/; White House, “What’s New in the Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan;” March 27, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Whats-New-in-the-Strategy-for-Afghanistan-and-Pakistan. 2 DOD, Transcript, “News Briefing by Commander, International Security Assistance Force, Afghanistan Gen. David McKiernan,” October 1, 2008; DOD, Transcript, “News Briefing with Gen. McKiernan from the Pentagon;” February 18, 2009; http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4354. 3 NATO coalition troops serve in the International Security Assistance Forces (ISAF) in Afghanistan, but are not part of the U.S. designated OEF operation. CRS counts U.S. forces who serve in ISAF as part of the Afghan War or OEF. Congressional Research Service 1 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 provide support in the region. Because all but the 2,000 troops in the Philippines are linked to the Afghan War, CRS uses OEF and the Afghan War interchangeably in this report. In a speech to U.S. Marines at Camp Lejeune on February 27, 2009, President Obama announced that the Administration’s review of U.S. strategy in Iraq was complete and that the U.S. mission in Iraq would shift from combat to supporting and training Iraqi security forces, and that U.S. troops would decline from the February 2009 level of about 140,000 in-country to 35,000 to 50,000 troops by August 31, 2010. In addition, the policy would meet the deadlines set in the January 1, 2009 Security Agreement with Iraq that requires all U.S. combat troops to move outside of cities by the end of June 2009, as recently took place, and that all U.S. troops leave Iraq by December 31, 2011.4 The Administration has not explained the effect of these withdrawals on other troops deployed for OIF, or the Iraq War, which includes not only U.S. troops located in Iraq but also some 80,000 to 90,000 troops providing theater-wide support in neighboring areas. CRS uses OIF and the Iraq War interchangeably in this report. The President reportedly considered options ranging from the 16-month withdrawal proposed during the campaign to a 23-month alternative reportedly favored by some in the military. Ultimately, the President adopted a 19-month plan.5 DOD spokesmen have suggested that increasing troop levels in Afghanistan depends, at least in part, on decreasing troop levels in Iraq if the services are to continue current 12-month tours. During the surge in troops in 2007 and 2009, tours grew to 15 months, a move that proved very unpopular.6 These two decisions about troop levels are reflected in the FY2009 Supplemental request sent to Congress in early April and the FY2010 war request submitted in early May 2009 with the regular budget. The FY2009 Supplemental covers DOD’s war costs for the rest of this fiscal year that ends September 30, 2009 because DOD received only part of its war funding in the FY2009 bridge fund enacted last summer.7 According to statute, the Administration is to include a full year of war costs with the regular budget in FY2010, and provide separate budget displays for each war, and troop strength levels as well as the underlying assumptions. DOD provided general 4 White House, “Responsibly Ending the War in Iraq,” Speech by President Obama at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, February 27, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/agenda/iraq/. Department of Defense, Transcript, Robert M. Gates, Media Roundtable," December 2, 2008; Some U.S. trainers, advisors, and support staff continue to be embedded with Iraqi units in cities and towns, see http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4325; CNN, Interview with Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell, June 29, 2009. 5 Senate Armed Services Committee, Transcript, “Challenges Facing the Defense Department,” January 27, 2009, p. 16. 6 Although Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell has suggested that the decisions are linked, Secretary Gates implied that troops for Afghanistan were available in his recent testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee on January 27, 2009 (see note 3). See Armed Forces Press Service, “Gates Pledges More Resources to Fight Protracted War in Afghanistan,” December 11, 2008; and Department of Defense, “DOD News Briefing with Geoff Morrell from the Pentagon, July 23, 2008. 7 DOD received $65.9 billion in P.L. 110-161, the FY2009 Consolidated Appropriations Act. Congressional Research Service 2 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 information about troop levels but not the underlying assumptions or separate budget displays for each operation in its FY2010 request.8 The Administration’s decisions to reduce the number of troops in Iraq reflects declining levels of violence and peacefully conducted provincial elections that took place in January 31, 2009, while its decision to increase troop levels in Afghanistan reflects rising levels of violence and elections slated for August of 2009. Another important element in decisions about troop levels is the effectiveness of Afghan and Iraqi security forces, where the U.S. has invested $38.9 billion thus far to train and equip these forces. 9 To identify the implications of troop levels for these and other policy issues, this report • explains how and why measures of troop levels in five different DOD data sources differ; • estimates future troop strength in Afghanistan and Iraq for FY2009-FY2012 under the Obama Administration plan using “Boots on the Ground,” the most commonly cited measure; • discusses the potential cost implications of these changes in troop levels along with other adjustments; • analyzes and explains past trends in troop levels for the Afghan and Iraq Wars under the different measures; and • measures contributions and burdens of deployment for the four services. For detailed description and analysis of the political and military context for changes in troop levels in Afghanistan and Iraq, see the following CRS Reports: CRS Report RL30588, Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy and CRS Report RL31339, Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security, by (name redacted); and CRS Report R40156, War in Afghanistan: Strategy, Military Operations, and Issues for Congress and CRS Report RL34387, Operation Iraqi Freedom: Strategies, Approaches, Results, and Issues for Congress, by (name redacted). Wide Range in Deployed Troop Strengths in DOD Sources When discussing deployed troop levels, it is important to be clear about which troops are included and which troops are not included. CRS analyzed five different sources for DOD troop strength for the Afghan and Iraq Wars ranging from including only those troops deployed in-country to including not only troops deployed in-country but also those providing theater-wide support in the region. 8 See Section 1008, P.L. 109-364; a detailed justification of all funding is also required; see also Section 1502, P.L. 110-17. 9 See Table 5, CRS Report RL33110, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, by (name redacted). Congressional Research Service 3 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 In the June preceding the September 11, 2001 attacks, the United States had about 26,000 troops stationed in the U.S. Central Command region, which encompasses Afghanistan and Iraq and neighboring areas. Most troops were located in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and on ships in the region, including some conducting over flight operations for Northern and Southern Watch to contain Saddam Hussein after the first Gulf War.10 Based on the most comprehensive measure of troop strength, DOD’s Defense Manpower Data Center’s Location Report, capturing all troops deployed for both wars, there were 294,000 U.S. troops in the region for Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom in December 2008, more than ten times the level seven years ago (see Figure 1 and Box 1).11 Figure 1 shows the number and location of these U.S. troops in December 2008, with an allocation between OEF or OIF based on where personnel are located that generally reflects guidelines developed by the Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff and Central Command. These allocations may or may not match distributions of war costs, which are collected separately by each service. 12 This figure of 294,000 troops is over 100,000 higher than the December 2008 total of 181,000 reported in DOD’s oft-cited Boots on the Ground,” (BOG) report.13 Military leaders, DOD press spokesmen and Members of Congress use the monthly BOG figures to give a snapshot of the number of troops deployed in-country in Afghanistan and in Iraq. For example, Admiral Mullen, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said there were 150,000 troops in Iraq “right now” on November 17, 2008, and Pentagon press secretary, Geoff Morrell said in January 2009 that the proposal to add 30,000 troops in Afghanistan would double the number there.14 DOD has reported these Boots on the Ground figures to Congress each month since 2008.15 As of the most recent data for April 1, 2009, DOD reported that there were 178,400 Boots on the Ground in Afghanistan and Iraq, slightly lower than in December 2008 reflecting the withdrawal of some troops from Iraq offset by the deployment of additional troops to Afghanistan.16 Part of the difference between DOD’s Boots-on-the-Ground figures and the Location Report is definitional. Boots on the Ground reports only personnel in Afghanistan or in Iraq while the 10 CRS calculation of country totals based on figures reported in Department of Defense, “MO-5 Worldwide Military Distribution, Active-Duty Military Personnel by Regional Area and By Country (309A),” June 30, 2001; http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/M05/hst0601.pdf. 11 Defense Manpower Data Center, Report DRS 11280, “Modified Stinson Country Report,” as of December 2008; this Location Report was modified in April 2009 to eliminate double-counting of personnel en route to assignments, e.g. moving through Kuwait to Iraq or Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan or who go through the same country more than once in a month. 12 See Box 1 for an explanation of CRS methodology. 13 Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), “Boots on the Ground,” December 1, 2008. In late January, DOD cited lower figures because troops sent to Afghanistan had not yet arrived; see Senate Armed Services Committee, Transcript, “Challenges Facing the Defense Department,” January 27, 2009, p.2. Admiral Mullen was quoted saying that there are 140,000 troops in Iraq and 31,000 in Afghanistan. 14 Department of Defense, “Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen,” November 17, 2008, http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4318; Department of Defense,”Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell,” January 29, 2009, http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4345. 15 H.Rept. 110-279, Department of Defense Appropriations Bill, 2008, July 30, 2007, p. 27. 16 Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), “Boots on the Ground,” April 1, 2008. Congressional Research Service 4 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Location Report counts deployments of all military personnel tracked as part of OEF and OIF, including primarily personnel providing support in neighboring countries, as well as about 2,000 OEF personnel engaged in counter-terror operations in the Philippines.17 Relying primarily on guidelines developed by staff of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Central Command, CRS allocated troops to each operation based on their location (see Figure 1 and Box 1). CRS uses the Iraq War interchangeably with OIF and the Afghan War interchangeably with OEF to include not only troops in-country, but also those providing theater-wide support primarily in the region. (All but the 2,000 troops in the Philippines are part of OEF or the Afghan War.) For example, in addition to the 38,000 troops in Afghanistan in December 2008, OEF includes: • 2,300 troops in Kyrgyzstan supporting Afghan operations; • 2,100 troops in Djibouti where there are groups connected to Osama Bin Laden; • 2,200 in the Philippines conducting other counter-terror operations; and • a scattering of other military personnel in the region (see Figure 1). 17 OEF also includes about 2,000 military personnel in Djibouti, which CRS considers part of the Afghan War because of its Al Qaeda connections. Congressional Research Service 5 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Figure 1. Location of U.S.Troops Deployed for Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), December 2008 Source: Defense Manpower Data Center, Report DRS 11280, Modified Location Country Report, December 2008. Notes: Reflects all deployed troops in December 2008. File has been ‘scrubbed’ to eliminate duplications when an individual was in more than one country or entered the same country more than once in the same month; individuals en-route are allocated to their likely deployment; only 400 duplications remain. Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) totals reflect primarily Joint Staff and Central Command designations (see Box 1). a. “Other” includes deployed troops whose location has not been reported by the services including some in classified locations. Similarly, while there are 161,000 troops for OIF in Iraq, the operation also includes: • 46,000 troops in Kuwait providing a wide range of support; • 15,000 Navy personnel on ships in the region; and Congressional Research Service 6 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 • several thousand troops deployed to regional headquarters (4,800 Navy personnel in Bahrain, 2,000 Air Force (AF) personnel in the United Arab Emirates, and 8,000 AF personnel in Qatar for the Air Force (see Figure 1 and Box 1).18 Box 1. Using Location to Allocate Military Personnel to OEF or OIF Figure 1 reflects allocations of military personnel to OEF or OIF based on the country where they are deployed that were primarily developed by the Joint Staff and Central Command. For the countries below, the Joint Staff and Central Command allocations were the same. OEF: Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan; OIF: Iraq, Turkey, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Ships Afloat. For several countries that are not part of Central Command, CRS used the Joint Staff allocations: OEF: Djibouti, Oman, Ethiopia, Kenya, Philippines; OIF: Israel. In three countries affecting 770 military personnel where the Joint Staff and Central Command estimates differed – Jordan, Yemen, and Egypt – CRS chose the operation most closely associated with that country: OIF: Jordan; OEF: Egypt and Yemen. Some concerns were raised about the fact that some personnel in, for example, headquarters locations such as Qatar, could support either or both OEF and OIF as could Navy personnel at sea. Notwithstanding these concerns, “CENTCOM acknowledges that while generally an operation can be aligned with a country, this is not a hard and fast rule.” The Joint Staff opted not to set a common set of guidelines because “each Service has its own personnel accountability systems that track OEF and OIF differently . . .” 19 There are also some 15,000 troops whose location is unknown or was not provided to the Defense Manpower Data Center, probably reflecting either data collection problems in the services or some personnel whose location is classified (see Figure 1).20 The gap between Boots on the Ground figures and the Location Report reflects differences in both who is counted and how personnel are counted. At one end of the spectrum, Boots on the Ground figures reflect once-a-month headcounts collected from the services by the Joint Staff that include only troops located in-country in Afghanistan and Iraq. At the other end of the spectrum, the Defense Manpower Data Center data captures all deployments during each month for those in the 28 countries, plus Navy members aboard ships in the region who are deemed part of OEF and OIF. These figures include short and long-term deployments.21 18 Email communication to CRS from Joint Staff, September 5, 2008. Email communication from Joint Staff to CRS, April 20, 2009. 20 CRS discussions with Defense Manpower Data Center staff. CRS does not allocate these troops in tables and figures in this report. 21 In response to a CRS request, the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) “scrubbed” the data to eliminate doublecounting of personnel who deployed to a country or countries more than once in the same month. DMDC identifies (continued...) 19 Congressional Research Service 7 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Another inclusive measure is “average strength,” which captures “person years” for all deployed OEF and OIF personnel taking into account the length of deployments. For example, an Army member deployed for 15-months would count as 1.25 in average strength while an Air Force member flying missions for six months of the fiscal year would count as .5 in average strength. The most appropriate figure to capture troop strength for the Afghan and Iraq wars may depend on the purpose. For example, Boots on the Ground counts may be the best measure for those troops most likely to face combat situations. On the other hand, Location Reports capture all troops deployed in the region for the two operations. Finally, Average Strength may be the best measure for looking at the total demand for troops as well as the cost of both operations. In-Country Troop Strength: FY2002-FY2012 The Obama administration outlined its plans for troop strength in the next several years only in terms of the number of troops in-country, also referred to as “Boots on the Ground” in Afghanistan and Iraq. For this reason, CRS estimates of future troop levels are also expressed in terms of troops in-country. These figures do not include over 100,000 other deployed troops who provide theater-wide support in the region and are dedicated to Operation Enduring Freedom, the Afghan War, and Operation Iraqi Freedom (see Figure 1 and later discussion). Nevertheless, Boots on the Ground figures captures those troops most likely to face combat and can provide an overall sense of the direction and scope of change. Overall Changes in Troop Strength To better capture strength levels in each fiscal year, CRS uses monthly averages rather than the once-a-month snapshots commonly cited by DOD spokesman. 22 These figures smooth out monthto-month variations and reflect overall demands for troops each year and are more closely related to the likely cost to deploy, conduct operations, and support troops in-theater. Overall Troop Strength Rises from FY2002-FY2008 Between FY2002 and FY2008, the number of troops in Afghanistan and Iraq increased from 5,200 troops to a peak of 172,000. Troop levels first jumped in FY2003 with the invasion of Iraq when troop strength in-country reached 78,000 for both wars (see Table 1). This figure does not include troops on ships or deployed in the region. Between FY2003 and FY2005, average monthly troop levels doubled from 78,100 to 162,900, reflecting increases in both Afghanistan and Iraq. There was little change in FY2006. Then in January 2007, President Bush announced his decision to send five more Brigade Combat Teams (...continued) where military personnel reported in the Contingency Tracking System for OEF and OIF, but does not allocate personnel between the two operations. The Location Report lists 28 countries that are tracked as part of OEF or OIF, some of which are not shown as having any U.S. troops. 22 CRS calculated monthly averages from DOD’s reported headcounts taken once a month. Congressional Research Service 8 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 to Iraq for a temporary surge in troop levels to quell rising violence. Average strength rose in FY2007 and FY2008 because of these additional troops as well as additional increases in Afghanistan. Average strength for both wars peaked at 187,900 in FY2008. During the surge, average troop strength for both wars grew from 161,500 in FY2006 to 172,000 in FY2007, an increase of 10,500 or 7%. The following year, in FY2008, when the peak was reached, troop levels were 187,900, an increase of another 15,900 or 9%. These increases reflect growth in troop levels in Afghanistan as well as the surge in Iraq. Table 1. Average Monthly Boots On the Ground in Afghanistan and Iraq: FY2002-FY2012 Reported FY02-FY08, Estimated FY09-FY12, Rounded to Hundreds Fiscal Year/Country Afghanistan Iraq Total Percentage Change Annual Since FY2003 Since FY2008 NA NA FY2002 5,200 0 5,200 NA FY2003 10,400 67,700 78,100 1402% FY2004 15,200 130,600 145,800 87% 87% NA FY2005 19,100 143,800 162,900 12% 109% NA FY2006 20,400 141,100 161,500 -1% 107% NA FY2007 23,700 148,300 172,000 7% 120% NA FY2008 30,100 157,800 187,900 9% 141% NA FY2009 50,700 135,600 186,300 -1% 139% -1% FY2010 63,500 88,300 151,800 -19% 94% -19% FY2011 63,500 42,800 106,200 -30% 36% -43% FY2012 63,500 4,100 67,500 -36% -14% -64% NA NA Sources: Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff, “Boots on the Ground,” monthly reports; White House, “Responsibly Ending the War in Iraq,” Speech by President Obama at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, February 27, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/agenda/iraq/; White House, “Statement by the President on Afghanistan,” February 17, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Statement-by-the-President-on-Afghanistan/; Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff, “Boots on the Ground Reports.” Notes: CRS calculations of monthly averages for FY2002-FY2008, and estimates for FY2009-FY2012 based on Table A-1 in Appendix A. Likely Overall Declines: FY2008-FY2012 Based on the plans announced by the Obama Administration described above, CRS estimates that average monthly troop strength in Afghanistan and Iraq will decline from 187,900 in FY2008 to 67,500 in FY2012, a drop of 64%. These estimates reflect announcements made this spring by the Obama Administration. If these plans change — with more rapid increases in Afghanistan or slower decreases in Iraq — these estimates would, of course, change. Congressional Research Service 9 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Under the current plan, overall troop strength in Afghanistan and Iraq in FY2009 will remain essentially the same between FY2008 and FY2009 as declines in troop levels in Iraq are offset by increases in Afghanistan (see Table 1). In FY2010, assuming troop levels remain the same in Afghanistan and the pace of withdrawals in Iraq picks up, average troop strength for both wars would fall to 151,800 or by 19%. By that year, troop levels in Afghanistan would be about 25,000 less than those in Iraq. In FY2011, the pace of withdrawal in Iraq would quicken to meet the deadline of withdrawing all but 35,000 to 50,000 troops in Iraq by August 31, 2009 announced by the President. CRS estimates this would reduce overall average troop levels to 106,200 in FY2011, a decline of 30%, assuming no change in Afghanistan. This would decrease overall deployed strength by another 30%, still above the FY2003 level when operations in Afghanistan and Iraq were both underway. By FY2011, the balance of troops between the two operations would shift with 20,000 more troops in Afghanistan than deployed in Iraq. By FY2012, when the withdrawal from Iraq is slated to be complete to meet the Security Agreement with Iraq, overall troop levels would fall by another 36% to 67,500 as all but the last three Brigade Combat Teams leave Iraq, and some 7 BCTs would be in Afghanistan (see Table A-1). DOD did not include troop estimates for these years in its budget submissions. By showing average troop strength both in the past and estimating troop strength in the future, CRS hopes to provide a tool that can help Congress assess the pacing cost implications in current plans to increase troop levels in Afghanistan and decrease troop levels in Iraq including: • Are the planned increases in Afghanistan too much, too little or about right and how long are higher levels likely to be maintained? • Is the pace of withdrawal in Iraq too fast, too slow, or about right and what are the implications if current plans change? • What are the likely implications for war costs in FY2009-FY2012? Cost Implications of Changes in Troop Strength: FY2009-FY2012 The Administration’s FY2009 supplemental, submitted on April 9, 2009, and the FY2010 war budget, submitted on May 7, 2009, presumably incorporate the recent decisions to increase troop levels in Afghanistan by 30,000 by the summer of 2009 and to reduce troop levels in Iraq gradually in FY2009 and then more rapidly in FY2010 and FY2011. Thus far, the Administration has not indicated how these decisions will affect the other 100,000 troops in the region. These planned adjustments in troop levels are likely to be a key variable in how DOD’s war costs change. War costs cover the additional or incremental costs to deploy and support troops (e.g. combat pay, upgrading overseas bases, meals), conduct operations, and to repair, replace and sometimes upgrade equipment (see Appendix B). The cost of the regular salaries of military personnel, conducting normal training and maintaining equipment or running military installations at home are all covered in DOD’s regular budget. CRS estimated the cost implications for FY2009-FY2012 war costs of changes in average strength in Afghanistan and in Iraq along with other changes. Congressional Research Service 10 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 The Effects of Timing The timing of proposed increases and decreases in troop levels is important in estimating current and future war costs. In addition to the 33,450 troops deployed in Afghanistan at the beginning of this fiscal year, an additional 30,000 troops are scheduled to deploy during the remainder of FY2009. The increases in troop levels in Afghanistan include the following: • one additional Brigade Combat Team of about 9,000 including support deployed in January 2009 as directed by then-President Bush; • 21,000 more troops including a brigade of 8,000 U.S. Marine Corps personnel deployed in March 2009, and about 9,000 Army troops in June 2009 as directed by President Obama; and 4,000 additional trainers deployed this summer as directed by President Obama. The war cost implications of these decisions depend on the amount of time that these personnel will be in-country: for example, 9 months for the brigade deployed in January, seven months for the Marine Corps personnel, four months for the additional Army brigade and five months for the trainers. 23 Not until FY2010 would a full year’s cost for all 30,000 additional troops be needed. Similarly, for Iraq, the savings from the withdrawal in June 2009 of two Brigade Combat Teams that will not be replaced will reflect the three months that those roughly 18,000 troops will no longer be in-country in FY2009. To estimate the effect of these troop plans on average troop strength and cost, CRS developed a schedule of the movement of units in and out of Afghanistan and Iraq based on Presidential and DOD announcements (see Appendix A and Table A-1). To simplify the metric, CRS assumes that 9,000 troops make up a BCT-equivalent including both combat and support troops. This reflects the Army’s assumption that 10,000 troops is the average for a BCT including support forces, adjusted for the fact that Marine Corps units tend to be smaller. 24 CRS uses this metric to estimate the cost of maintaining a certain number of weighted average BCT-equivalents in country that reflect both the number of units and the amount of time that they are in Afghanistan or Iraq in each fiscal year. While this metric has the advantage that it can be tied to Administration and DOD plans to move units into or out of Afghanistan and Iraq, it implicitly assumes that the more than 100,000 other troops in the region rise or fall in proportion to troop changes in-country. 23 White House, “Statement by the President on Afghanistan,” February 17, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Statement-by-the-President-on-Afghanistan/. White House,” What’s New in the Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan;” March 27, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/WhatsNew-in-the-Strategy-for-Afghanistan-and-Pakistan; DOD, Transcript, “DOD News Briefing with General David McKiernan,” October 1, 2008; http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspz?transcriptid=4297. 24 For this purpose, CRS also assumes that Navy and Air Force troops deployed in-country provide ground support for Army and Marine Corps units. Congressional Research Service 11 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Table 2. Average Monthly Troop Levels by War, FY2006-FY2012 Actuals through FY2008, Estimates for FY2009-FY2012 in Italics Troop Levels and Estimated Costs FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 AFGHAN WAR In-Country Average Troop Levelsa 20,417 23,658 30,142 50,700 63,400 63,450 63,350 Average BCTs In-Country/a/ 2.3 2.6 3.3 5.6 7.1 7.1 7.0 Percent Annual Change 7% 16% 27% 68% 25% 0% 0% Share of Total 13% 14% 16% 27% 42% 60% 94% IRAQ WAR In-Country Average Troop Levels 141,100 148,292 157,775 135,600 88,300 42,750 4,050 Average BCTs In-Country/a/ 15.7 16.5 17.5 15.1 9.8 4.8 0.5 Percent Annual Change -2% 5% 6% -14% -35% -52% -91% Share of Total 87% 86% 84% 73% 58% 40% 6% AFGHAN AND IRAQ WARS In-Country Average Troop Levels 161,517 171,950 187,917 186,300 151,750 106,200 67,500 Average BCTs In-Country 17.9 19.1 20.9 20.7 16.9 11.8 7.5 Percent Annual Change 12% 6% 9% -1% -19% -30% -36% Share of Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Sources: White House, “Responsibly Ending the War in Iraq,” Speech by President Obama at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, February 27, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/agenda/iraq/; White House, “Statement by the President on Afghanistan,” February 17, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Statement-by-thePresident-on-Afghanistan/; Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff, “Boots on the Ground Reports.” For methodology, see Table A-1. Notes: Italics indicate CRS estimates. CRS calculated annual averages, year-to-year changes and average Brigade Combat Team (BCT) equivalents, assuming 9,000 troops for each BCT including support elements. CRS modified the standard Army planning factor of 10,000 troops per BCT with support to reflect the generally smaller size of Marine Corps units; this approach also assumes that Navy and Air Force troops in-country are providing support to ground units. For specific schedule of BCT-equivalents deployed to and from Afghanistan and Iraq that underlie these estimates, see Table A-1. a. Assumes no additional troops are deployed in FY2010. While many of the Navy and Air Force personnel conducting operations at sea or outside the country who support ground operations are likely to rise or fall proportionately, other personnel, such as headquarters personnel in Bahrain or Qatar, may adjust gradually or not at all. Army support troops in Kuwait who provide maintenance services may face reduced workload as troops leave partly offset by higher workload as equipment that has not rotated with troops is prepared to be re-deployed. DOD has not provided any information about the likely effect of the planned increases and withdrawals on these additional 100,000 troops providing theater-wide support. For example, Congressional Research Service 12 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 troop levels outlined in the FY2009 Supplemental and the FY2010 war request only include strength levels in-country. 25 Between FY2006 and FY2012, the balance of troops dedicated to Afghanistan and Iraq would gradually shift from the 88% for Iraq and 12% for Afghanistan that was typical for FY2006FY2008 to 73% for Iraq and 27% for Afghanistan in FY2009 (see Table 2). By FY2010, troops in Iraq would make up about 58% and those in Afghanistan about 42% of the total. The following year, Afghanistan would become the predominant mission with 60% of the troops, and by FY2012, Afghanistan would have 93% of all troops in-country. These estimates reflect the Administration’s plans as currently outlined. If plans change with different pacing of increases and decreases, then troop strength and costs would rise or fall as would the balance between the two operations. Changes in Afghanistan and Iraq For Afghanistan, troops in-country grew gradually from 5,200 in FY2002 to 20,400 in FY2006. Between FY2006 and FY2008, average strength there jumped by another 10,000 to 30,100. Under the Administration’s plans, CRS estimates that average monthly Boots on the Ground in Afghanistan may increase to 50,700 in FY2009 with a further increase to 63,500 the following year once all new units are in-place (see Table 2). Currently, additional increases have not been approved. Including some 31,000 coalition troops, the total number of foreign troops in Afghanistan could rise to about 95,000. Secretary Gates has suggested that going beyond that level could become “a hindrance rather than a help because we begin to look like occupiers to the Afghans,” as did the Soviets with their 110,000 to 120,000 troops.26 For Iraq, troops in-country nearly doubled between FY2003 and FY2004 reaching an average of 130,600. By the following year, average strength grew by another 13,000 to 143,800, with that level maintained in FY2006. During the surge in troops initiated by President Bush, average troop strength in Iraq initially grew by 7,000 or 6% in FY2007, less than the increase between FY2005 and FY2004. By the next year with another 9,500 troops, troops or another 9%, reaching a peak of 157,800 even as the additional combat brigades began to be withdrawn. CRS estimates that troop strength in Iraq will average 135,600 in FY2009, 88,300 in FY2010, 42,800 in FY1011, and 4,100 in FY2012. Annual decreases range from 22,00 to 46,000 in these years. 25 DOD, Fiscal Year 2009 Supplemental: Summary Justification Material, April 2009, p. 13; http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2009/Supplemental/FY2009_Supplemental_Request/pdfs/FY_200 9_Supplemental_Request_04-08-09.pdf [hereinafter, DOD, FY2009 Supplemental]; DOD, Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Request: Summary Justification, May 2009, p. 4-11; http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2010/fy2010_SSJ.pdf [hereinafter, DOD, FY2010 Request]. 26 CBS, Transcript, “Interview with Defense Secretary Gates,” Sixty Minutes, May 17, 2009, p. 3. Congressional Research Service 13 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Estimated Troop Levels in Afghanistan in FY2009 Based on the schedule outlined by the Administration, CRS estimates average annual U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan would likely grow from an average of 30,100 in FY2008 to about 50,700 in FY2009 or by 68% percent. The Administration plans to review troop levels at the end of this year including a request by former Commander of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, General McKiernan, to deploy an additional combat brigade in the winter of 2009, partway through FY2010. DOD estimates troops in Afghanistan would average 45,000 in FY2009.27 At a press conference in May 2009, Secretary Gates characterized the additional brigade as a “hard sell.”28 If no additional troops are approved, troop levels in Afghanistan would be likely to increase by another 25% to an average strength of 63,350 in FY2010, or close to DOD’s estimate of 68,000 included in its war request.29 According to Pentagon spokesman, Geoffrey Morrell, Secretary Gates has voiced concerns that “there is a tipping point in terms of the American footprint . . . on the ground in Afghanistan.”30 With no further changes, CRS estimates that troop levels in FY2011 and FY2012 would remain at that level. In this scenario, the number of BCT-equivalents would more than double from 3.3 BCT-equivalents in FY2008 to about 7.1 BCTs in FY2010 (see Table A-1). If the additional brigade of 9,000 troops including support were added, troop levels would rise to 70,200 in FY2010 and peak at 72,450 or about 8 average BCTs in FY2011 and FY2012.31 Troop levels could, of course, increase or decrease in these later years if current plans change. Estimated Troop Levels in Iraq in FY2009 In FY2008, troop strength in Iraq declined from a peak of 170,000 in November 2007 to 147,000 by September 2008 as additional units sent for the surge were withdrawn. Administration plans call for a gradual drawdown in FY2009 to be accomplished mainly by not replacing two of three BCTs slated to re-deploy from Iraq in June 2009, as well as withdrawals of other smaller units, and some downsizing of replacement units.32 This could bring monthly average troop strength to 27 DOD, FY2010 Request, p. 4-11. DOD, Transcript, “Secretary of Defense Interview with CNN,” May 3, 2009; http://www.defenselink.mil/utility/printitem.aspx?print=http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcri ptid=4411. 29 DOD, FY2009 Supplemental, p. 19. 30 DOD, Transcript, “Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, March 29, 2009; http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4390. In a press conference on January 8, 2009, Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell suggested that Secretary Gates was “very mindful of the fact that there is a tipping point in terms of the American footprint – the coalition footprint, for that matter – on the ground in Afghanistan. So he wants to be very careful beyond those – those –beyond the commander’s request as to how many more troops we would ever consider putting in;” Department of Defense, Transcript, “Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell,” January 8, 2009; http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4336. 31 CRS calculation used methodology in Appendix A and Table A-1. 32 See Table A-1 for likely schedule, including recent decrease in April 2009; See also, Los Angeles Times, “U.S. to Pull 12,000 Troops from Iraq as Withdrawal Begins,” March 9, 2009. 28 Congressional Research Service 14 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 about 135,600 in FY2009, a 14% decrease from the previous year, close to DOD’s estimate of 140,000 (see and Table A-1).33 CRS assumes that additional re-deployments would not resume until the end of January 2010 after the Iraqi elections slated for December 2009. In order to reach the target of 35,000 to 50,000 troops in Iraq by August 2010 announced by President Obama, an additional 8 average BCTs would need to be withdrawn from Iraq.34 Reflecting this schedule, average troop levels in Iraq would be about 88,300 in FY2010, a decrease of 35% that year (see Table 2 and Table A-1). DOD estimates average troop strength in Iraq would be about 100,000 in FY2010, somewhat higher than this CRS estimate. 35 In his speech to Marines at Camp Lejeune, President Obama announced that all troops would be out of Iraq by the end of 2011 as required by the Security Agreement. 36 To meet that deadline, CRS assumes, conservatively, that the last five remaining BCTs are withdrawn in the last five months of 2011, spanning the end of FY2011 and the first quarter of FY2012. This also reflects recent statements by Secretary Gates that the United States would have “a significant presence for another 18 months.”37 To meet this schedule, two BCTs would need to be withdrawn in August and September 2011 — the end of fiscal year — with the final three BCTs leaving between October and December 2011 during the first quarter of FY2012. This schedule would reduce average monthly troop strength from 88,300 in FY2010 to 42,750 in FY2011, and 4,050 in FY2012 (Appendix A and Table A-1). If troops were withdrawn sooner, or the agreement with the Iraq government was re-negotiated to extend DOD troop presence, average troop levels and costs would be lower or higher. The FY2009 Supplemental and FY2010 War Request Changes in average troop strength may provide a benchmark that can be used to evaluate the reasonableness of DOD requests for war funds along with other considerations. Although the services develop war requests by evaluating specific funding requests from the field rather than from a “top-down” approach, few would argue that changes in the number of deployed troop levels play a major role in determining war costs. Along with other adjustments, CRS estimates how costs in FY2009 and beyond would change based on the number and operational costs of average Brigade Combat Teams in Afghanistan and Iraq each fiscal year based on FY2008 data (see Appendix B and Table B-1). Operational costs include military personnel and Operation and Maintenance (O&M). 33 DOD, FY2010 Request, pp. 4-11. 34 White House, “Responsibly Ending the War in Iraq,” Speech by President Obama at Camp Lejune, North Carolina, February 27, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/agenda/iraq/. 35 DOD, Fiscal Year 2009 Supplemental: Summary Justification Material, April 2009, p. 13; [hereinafter, DOD, FY2009 War Request] ; DOD, Fiscal Year 2010: Summary Justification, May 2009, p. 4-11; [ hereinafter, DOD, FY2010 Request]. 36 White House, “Responsibly Ending the War in Iraq,” Speech by President Obama at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, February 27, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/agenda/iraq/. 37 NBC, “Interview with Secretary Gates,” Meet the Press, p. 3, March 1, 2009. Congressional Research Service 15 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Factors other than changes in troop strength, of course, also affect costs, including one-time expenses in the previous year that would be unlikely to be repeated, transfers of costs previously funded in supplementals to DOD’s baseline budget, policy changes, lags in when savings from withdrawals would occur, the timing of new demands, and programmatic changes only loosely tied to troop levels (e.g. funds to train Afghan security forces).38 Adjustments Affecting FY2009 On April 9, 2009, the Obama Administration submitted a request for an additional $75.5 billion for DOD for FY2009 Supplemental Overseas Contingency Operations, abandoning the “Global War on Terror” label used by the Bush Administration. 39 This brings the total request for FY2009, the current fiscal year, to $141.4 billion. For FY2010, the Administration has requested $130 billion in FY2010 for both wars.40 Based on these requests, the proposed FY2009 level would be $45.7 billion lower than the $187.1 billion enacted in FY2008. At first glance, this 24% decrease appears to substantially exceed the 1% decrease in troop levels between those two years. To estimate how FY2009 would change compared to FY2008, several one-time decreases may be appropriate including: • $12.2 billion provided by Congress in FY2008 that DOD characterizes as not related to war needs that would not be requested the following year, ranging from C-17 transport aircraft added by Congress ($3.3 billion), base closure or BRAC funding ($1.3 billion), and compensation for higher fuel prices for DOD’s baseline program ($4.0 billion); 41 • $16.8 billion for a largely one-time purchase of the full requirement for MineResistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles in order to speed the delivery of these vehicles considered to have greater protective qualities than High Mobility Uparmored Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWV); • a policy change by the new Administration that restores the definition of reconstitution — the repair and replacement of war-worn equipment — to procurement strictly to replace war losses and replenish supplies within the next fiscal year, reducing war-related procurement by $27 billion; and • adjustments to troop levels for increases in Afghanistan and decreases in Iraq (see Table 3). 38 See Appendix C and Table C-1 for widely used CBO projections of changes in costs based on changes in troop levels. 39 OMB, FY2009 Supplemental Request, Estimate No.1,111th Congress, April 9, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/assets/budget_amendments/supplemental_04_09_09.pdf; White House, Press Release, FY2009 Supplemental, April 9, 2009; http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/press_releases/SummaryoftheFiscalYear2009SupplementalAppropriationsRequest/ 40 DOD, FY2010 Request, May 2009. 41 DOD, “Status of Funds,” Table 2, "Appropriated Non-GWOT Funds," October 31, 2008; see DOD, FY2009 War Request, pp.65- 69. Congressional Research Service 16 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 With these adjustments, CRS estimates that DOD’s FY2009 war needs would total $133.1 billion rather than the $141.1 billion, or $8.3 billion below the Administration’s request (see Table 3). Table 3. Actual and Estimated DOD War Funding, FY2008-FY2012 in billions of dollars or percent change Category FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 Enacted Level 187.1 65.9 NA NA NA New Request NA 75.5 130.0 50.0 50.0 Fiscal Year Total 187.1 141.4 130.0 50.0 50.0 Change from Prior Year 33.1 -45.6 -11.4 -80.0 0.0 Annual Percentage Change 9% -24% -8% -62% 0% Annual Percent Change in Troop Level 9% -1% -19% -30% -36% Potential Adjustments to War Requests DOD's Non-War Funding in Enacted Supplementala 12.2 -12.2 NA NA NA One-Time MRAP Fundingb 16.8 -16.8 NA NA NA Transfers to Baselinec NA NA -8.0 NA NA NA -26.8 NA NA NA Changes in Troop Levels NA 1.8 -7.7 -25.4 -22.1 Total Annual Adjustments NA -54.0 -15.7 -25.4 -22.1 NA 133.1 117.4 91.9 69.8 NA -8.3 -12.6 41.9 19.8 Change in Reconstitution Policyd War Baseline Adjusted for Non-War, MRAP, Transfers, Reconstitution, and Troop Levels Difference with Administration Request Notes: NA = Not applicable. CRS projections in italics, see Table A-1 and sources above. a. The $12.2 billion identified by DOD as non-war costs includes items such as childcare centers and hospitals added by Congress, base closure funds, adds for higher fuel costs for its baseline program; and C-17 and C130 aircraft added by Congress. b. Congress provided $16.8 billion to buy the entire requirement, at that time, for, MRAP vehicles. c. In FY2010, DOD transferred some items previously funded in the supplemental to its baseline program including monies to increase the size of the Army, medical and family support, Section 1206 and Sec. 1207 funds to establish partnerships, Joint Improvised Explosive Device Organization funding, and enhancements to Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance. d. In FY2010, DOD changed its reconstitution policy to limit war-related procurement to replacement of battle losses and replenishment of munitions; CRS calculated the effect by comparing DOD’s request for reconstitution (excluding repair) in FY2009 and FY2008. Sources: DOD, Fiscal Year 2009 Supplemental: Summary Justification Material, April 2009, p. 66; http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2009/Supplemental/FY2009_Supplemental_Request/pdfs/FY_ 2009_Supplemental_Request_04-08-09.pdf; DOD, Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Request: Summary Justification Material, May 2009; DOD, “Status of Funds,” Table 2, "Appropriated Non-GWOT Funds," October 31, 2008; Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff, "Boots on the Ground," Monthly Reports; Secretary Gates, Statement to the Senate Appropriations Committee, June 9, 2009. Congressional Research Service 17 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 For changes in troop strength, this estimate assumes that operational costs in FY2009 rise or fall in proportion with changes in troop levels. Other programmatic changes may not be related to troop levels. Increases could include: • the proposed $1.9 billion increase for the training for both Afghan and Iraqi security forces; • additional demands for unmanned aerial vehicles or light-weight MRAPS; • an additional $300 million for Coalition Support; and • $400 million for the new Pakistan Counterinsurgency Fund. At the same time, other areas may have lower costs in FY2009 as needs change or are already met, including: • $400 million less for Military Construction; and • $800 million less for the Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Fund.42 DOD’s request makes adjustments for several of the changes outlined above and assumes small changes in military personnel costs and the same level of Operation and Maintenance funding in FY2008 as in FY2009.43 Potential Changes to DOD’s FY2010-FY2012 Requests The Obama Administration requested $130 billion for war funding in its FY2010 budget that Congress is considering along with DOD’s baseline request.44 The funding needed for that year depends on not only changes in troop strength but other adjustments made by DOD. In FY2010, according to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, DOD transferred to its baseline about $8 billion of programs previously funded in supplemental appropriations. Anticipating that supplemental or war funding would be reduced, DOD transferred programs considered necessary for DOD’s long-term requirements such as additional funding for increasing the size of the Army, recruiting and retention, countering threats from Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (e.g., unmanned aerial vehicles), and “Global Train and Equip” funds for countries facing terrorist threats.45 42 DOD, FY2009 War Request, p. 28, pp.41-49, p.32. See Table 3, DOD, Overseas Contingency Operations Request, FY2009 Supplemental: Summary Justification Material, April 2009; 43 http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2009/Supplemental/FY2009_Supplemental_Request/pdfs/FY_200 9_Supplemental_Request_04-08-09.pdf 44 DOD, FY2010 Request, May 2009. 45 DOD, Transcript, “Remarks by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates at the Army War College, Carlisle, Pa,” April 16, 2009, pp. 2-3; http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4404. Congressional Research Service 18 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Because of these transfers, the FY2010 war request would be expected to be $8 billion lower than in FY2009. In addition, CRS estimates that planned changes in troop levels would also reduce requirements by an additional $7.7 billion for a total of $15.7 billion altogether. This could reduce DOD’s requirement from $133 billion in FY2009 to $117 billion in FY2010, or almost $13 billion less than DOD has requested (see Table 3). For FY2011 and FY2012, the Administration included planning figures of $50 billion each year in its budget.46 Based on currently announced plans, CRS estimates that war costs could total $92 billion in FY2011 and $70 billion in FY2012. These levels would be $42 billion and $20 billion, respectively, above the current planning figures. While other factors could affect costs, this suggests future war requests are likely to change (see Table 3). Potential Costs of Withdrawal Some observers would argue that the assumption that war costs in Iraq will fall in tandem with troop levels overlooks that some costs are likely to fall more slowly than others, and that there may be additional costs associated with the withdrawal itself. Budgeteers sometimes assume that in the short-term, only direct support costs (e.g., special pays, operating costs, meals, protective gear) change with troop strength. Then once some threshold is reached, indirect costs (e.g., base support, communication hubs) fall, and reductions will become proportional. Current efforts to reduce and move U.S. troops outside major cities in Iraq, required by the Security Agreement, may have already begun the consolidation process, which could reduce base support costs sooner rather than later. 47 In fact, there is some evidence that base support costs are already declining. In addition, the transfer of responsibility to Iraqi Security forces may also reduce U.S. operating costs even before there are major declines in troop levels. Other observers have suggested that the withdrawal process itself may entail additional costs. Government Accountability Office (GAO) has emphasized the complexity and need for coordination and planning to re-deploy forces and equipment, but has not estimated costs associated with a drawdown.48 Army leaders have testified frequently that the cost of “reset” or repairing and replacing war-worn equipment could persist at the current annual level of $16 billion for two years after a withdrawal from Iraq though the specific rationale for this argument is unclear. For the past two years, the cost of repairing and replacing Army equipment has been $16 billion each year, a cost covered in war funding received each year.49 About three-quarters of the Army’s 46 OMB, A New Era of Responsibility: Renewing America’s Promise, February 26, 2009, Table S-7; http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy10/pdf/fy10-newera.pdf. 47 United States and Iraq, “Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq on the Withdrawal of United States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of Their Activities During Their Temporary Presence in Iraq,” November 17, 2008. 48 GAO, Operation Iraqi Freedom: Actions Needed to Enhance DOD Planning for Reposturing of U.S. Forces from Iraq. GAO-08-930, September 10, 2008; http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt? GAO, 2009 Iraq: Key Issues for Congressional Oversight. GAO-09-294SP, March 24, 2009; http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-09-294SP. 49 Army, “Army Reset Brief to Congressional Professional Staffers,“ 24 November 2008. Congressional Research Service 19 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 equipment rotates with units each year, being repaired on its return to the United States. This suggests that about one-quarter of unit equipment remains in-theater to be used by newly deploying units (based on the value of the equipment).50 Once U.S. forces in Iraq fully withdraw, this equipment would be returned to the United States for repair or replacement except for items left behind for the Iraqis or transferred to Afghanistan. If the repair and replacement bill were proportional to the value of the equipment, the Army would face an additional bill of about $5 billion to $6 billion to reset the equipment that has remained in theater, well below Army estimates. At the same time, the annual bill for repairing equipment that rotates with troops would be expected to decline as troop levels fall, offsetting some of this additional expense.51 Similar factors would presumably apply to the other services. Potential Questions About Troop Strength and Cost In looking at the effect of changes in troop levels on cost, CRS took into account the following questions: • How many and how quickly are increases and decreases in troop levels planned for each fiscal year? • How many troops are being increased and decreased in-country? CRS distributed all operational costs over the number of troops in-country and assumed that troops in the region would fall at the same rate as those in-country, which is supported by past changes (see Figure 5 and Figure 7). To do a more precise estimate, additional information would be needed. These question include: • How did the number of troops in the region change? • How are changes in troop levels distributed among the services since the war cost of an Army soldier in-country differs from a Navy sailor or Air Force pilot operating from outside Afghanistan or Iraq? • How quickly will operational costs (Military Personnel and Operation & Maintenance) adjust to decreases in the number of troops deployed to Iraq or increases in Afghanistan, i.e. will some types of costs fall slower than others? • How large are additional costs associated with re-deploying troops, such as sending troops and equipment home and repairing, replacing, or upgrading equipment currently stored in theater? 50 The Army estimates that the value of all its equipment in-theater is about $42 billion including $12 billion that does not rotate back and forth with troops; $11 billion of that equipment is in Iraq; Army response to CRS question, February 18, 2009. Some equipment in this “theater-provided” equipment is swapped out each year so the composition of the pool itself changes. 51 Army, “Army Equipment Reset Update to HAC-D,”28 March 06; this briefing estimates a decline in reset requirements as forces are withdrawn over two years from $13 billion in FY2006 to $10 billion in FY2008 and $1.7 billion in FY2009. Congressional Research Service 20 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 • How large is any new investment to build or upgrade bases to support higher levels of troops in Afghanistan, and are bases intended to be temporary or permanent? Thus far, DOD has provided only very general information about troop levels rather than the number, location, or distribution among the services of troop levels which would help Congress to evaluate its supplemental war requests. The FY2009 National Defense Authorization Act requires that DOD provide separate budget displays for Afghanistan and Iraq as well as “include a detailed description of the assumptions underlying the funding for the period covered by the budget request, including the anticipated troop levels, the operations intended to be carried out, and the equipment reset requirements necessary to support such operations.”52 These separate budget displays and detailed assumptions are not included in DOD’s FY2009 Supplemental or the FY2010 war requests. Ways to Measure Troop Levels for the Afghan and Iraq Wars While CRS used Boots on the Ground or in-country troop levels to estimate future troop levels and potential effects on war costs, these figures do not accurately capture the total demand for troops for the Afghan and Iraq war because other troops deployed in the region are not included. To get a better sense of changes in the total demand for troops since the 9/11 attacks, CRS calculated average monthly strength for troops deployed for the Afghan and Iraq Wars using the following five DOD data sources, which range from including only troops in-country to all those deployed for OEF and OIF: 52 • Boots on the Ground or (BOG) Report, a once-a-month headcount limited to U.S. troops in-country that is compiled by the Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) using inputs from the services; • Operations Report, a more inclusive monthly headcount collected by Central Command, that counts service members under U.S. Central Command which captures some, but not all, military personnel deployed for OEF or OIF (e.g., Special Operations Command is excluded). • Combat Pay Estimate, based on the funding for combat or Imminent Danger Pay that is reported in DOD’s war cost reports and used in budget justification materials; • Average Strength Report, a person-year estimate of all OEF and OIF military personnel collected by the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) based on its Contingency Tracking System (CTS), which reflects service personnel records and the beginning and ending dates of each service member’s deployment; and • Location Reports, a monthly DMDC count of all those deployed for OEF and OIF that reports the country where service members are located. Section 1502, P.L. 110-417. Congressional Research Service 21 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Yet another demand for troops resulting from OEF and OIF operations is the activation of some 50,000 reservists to backfill some of the positions of deployed active-duty troops.53 Although these reservists are not carrying out OEF and OIF missions, their activation would not have occurred without those operations. Adding those troops to the 294,000 included in the Location Report for December 2008 brings the total troops associated with OEF and OIF to 344,000, or almost twice the level in the Boots on the Ground report for December 2008 (see Figure 1 and Table D-1 and Table D-2). Policy Issues Raised by Differences in Troop Counts These different measures of troop strength for the Afghan and Iraq Wars raise several significant policy and cost issues: • How will the Administration’s plan to increase troops in Afghanistan and decrease forces in Iraq affect troops providing support in the region, i.e. will forces in the region change in proportion to changes in combat troops? • What do war requests assume about reducing troops in-country as opposed to reducing troops in the region, and are there interactions between the two? • How does the United States envision the overall U.S. military presence in the region in terms of deployed troops and their locations? A number of other questions arise for each individual operation including: • To what extent are increases in troop levels in Afghanistan dependent on decreases in Iraq, taking into account all troops deployed? • What can we learn from the past about the effect of U.S. troop levels on the likelihood that the U.S., its allies, and local security forces can quell violence in Afghanistan or in Iraq? Trends in Troop Levels From FY2002-FY2008 Using Five Alternative Sources Although there are wide differences in troop levels reported by these five DOD sources, trends over time are similar (see Table 4 and Figure 2). Some of the differences between sources reflect definitions — for example, Boots on the Ground Reports for Afghanistan and Iraq include only those troops located within each country, whereas Operations Reports include some of the military personnel providing support in the region. Other differences reflect whether figures are headcounts taken once a month as opposed to average strength which takes into account the number or days each member is deployed for OEF 53 CRS calculation based on data from the Defense Manpower Data Center, DRS 21198, “Average Number of Members Deployed on Any Given Day By Service Component and Month/Year,” based on the Contingency Tracking System,” January 2009. Congressional Research Service 22 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 or OIF. These distinctions can have important implications for the cost and demand for troops. In general, more comprehensive measures are more useful. To get a better sense of monthly trends, CRS calculated averages for each DOD source for each fiscal year rather than using the more commonly cited Boots on the Ground figures which captures only a point in time. Using this method, average monthly troop strength for both wars in FY2008 ranged from: • 188,000 for DOD’s Boots on the Ground or troops deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq;54 • 223,000 in the Central Command’s Operations Report including some but not all troops deployed in the region, or 19% above the BOG total; • 248,000 in average strength estimated from combat pay, or 32% above the BOG total; • 294,000 in the Defense Manpower Data Center average strength or 56% above the BOG total; and • 307,000 troops based on DMDC’s Location Report, or 64% above BOG figures; (see Table 4).55 Table 4. Average Monthly Troop Levels in Afghanistan and Iraq, FY2002-FY2008: Five DOD Sources Rounded to hundreds Average Monthly Troop Level FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 Percent Change, FY2004FY2008a Boots on the Ground 5,200 78,100 145,800 162,900 161,500 172,000 187,900 29% Operations Report 8,800 141,100 216,600 204,000 203,300 215,800 223,100 3% Combat Pay Estimateb 63,300 166,000 238,300 251,700 228,700 247,900 292,500 23% Average Strength with CRS Allocationc 83,400 237,600 232,700 255,000 262,500 274,500 293,600 26% 277,478 289,134 307,503 NA Location Reportd 90,197 254,312 247,277 282,659 Sources: Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff, “Boots on the Ground” (BOG) reports; Central Command, “Operations Report;” Defense Finance Accounting Services (DFAS), “Supplemental & Cost of War Execution Reports;” Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC), DRS 21198,”Average Number of Members Deployed on any given day by Service Component and Month/Year,” January 2009; DMDC, DRS 11280, “Modified Location Country Report,” December 2008, as of April 21, 2009. 54 CRS calculation based on monthly Department of Defense, “Boots on the Ground” reports (see Table 7 and Table D-1). 55 The total of 307,000 for FY2008 is higher than the figure for December 2008 as shown in Figure 1 because the number of troops declined in the fall as troops from Iraq were withdrawn after the surge. Congressional Research Service 23 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Notes: CRS calculated monthly averages from BOG, Operations, Average Strength, DFAS, and Location Reports for each fiscal year. a. CRS calculated change since FY2004 to exclude first year of combat for OEF or OIF. b. To estimate average strength from DFAS war reports, CRS divided the total amount reported for Combat or Imminent Danger Pay (IDP) by the annual amount that each member receives. c. CRS estimated OEF and OIF allocations by applying percentage shares in the Operations Report to averages produced by Defense Manpower Data Center, “DRS 21198 Report, Average Strength Deployed for OIF and OEF,” as of December, 2008 Contingency Tracking System report. d. DMDC does not consider its location data in the Modified Location Country report to be reliable until January 2005 because service members were often shown in their first location in the region rather than their final deployment; after that time, a system was developed where members recorded each location during their deployment. Total figures of OEF and OIF personnel are considered reliable by DMDC. Figures in this table include 14,000 to 19,000 individuals in FY2006-FY2009 whose status is “Non-reportable,” “Unknown,” or Miscellaneous where the services did not provide location data. Generally, figures in Average Strength Reports are higher than once-a-month headcounts because they include all military personnel providing theater support in the region, reflect the time personnel are deployed, and capture those present throughout the month. It is not clear, however, that these reasons are sufficient to explain the difference of over 100,000 between Boots on the Ground and Average Strength Reports. Like the average strength measure, Location Reports are also inclusive measures because they capture all troops deployed at any point during a month. Location Reports are probably higher than Average Strength Reports because military personnel who are in-country for short periods of time are counted the same way as those present for the entire month. There are also substantial differences by service between BOG and the more inclusive Average Strength Reports. Average Strength Reports figures are about: • 30,000 to 35,000 or over 20% higher for the Army; • 13,000 to 20,000 or 60% to 90% higher for the Navy; • about 8,000 or about 30% higher for the U.S. Marine Corps; and • 6,000 to 7,000 or over 25% higher for the Air Force. Trends for both the Afghan and Iraq Wars Despite these substantial differences in the number of military personnel who are counted, the overall trends over time in troop levels are similar for the five DOD sources. Overall, troop levels jumped sharply with the initiation of combat operations for the Afghan war starting in FY2002 and with the Iraq invasion in FY2003. After that, troop levels generally remained fairly stable from FY2004-FY2006. The exception is Combat Pay Estimates, which are somewhat erratic probably because of the unreliability in DOD war cost reporting. 56 CRS included this measure because, if accurately reported, combat pay is a 56 GAO has issued several reports criticizing DOD for the unreliability of war costs reported in the Defense Finance (continued...) Congressional Research Service 24 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 good measure of average strength and is often used by the services in its budget justification materials, including the current FY2009 Supplemental. Figure 2. Average Monthly Troop Levels for the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2002-FY2008: Five DOD Sources In thousands 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 Boots on the Ground Operations Report Average Strength Report Location Report 2006 2007 2008 Combat Pay Estimate Sources: Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff, “Boots on the Ground” (BOG) reports; Central Command, “Operations Report;” Defense Finance Accounting Services (DFAS), “Supplemental & Cost of War Execution Reports;” Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC), DRS 21198, “Average Number of Members Deployed on any given day by Service Component and Month/Year,” January 2008; DMDC, DRS 11280, “Modified Location Country Report ,” December 2008. Notes: CRS calculated monthly averages from the BOG, Operations, Average Strength and Location reports for each fiscal year. To estimate average strength from DFAS war cost reports, CRS divided the total amount reported for Imminent Danger Pay (IDP) by the annual amount that each member would receive. In FY2007 and FY2008, overall troop levels increased moderately in response to the troop surge in Iraq announced by former President Bush in January 2007 and continued increases in troop levels in Afghanistan (see Table 4 and Figure 2). (...continued) Accounting System (DFAS), “Supplemental & Cost of War Execution Reports;” see GAO, Global War on Terrorism: DOD Needs to More Accurately Capture and Report the Costs of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom, GAO-09-302, March 17, 2009, p. 8; http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09302.pdf. Congressional Research Service 25 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Allocating Troops Between the Afghan and Iraq Wars Despite the wide differences among DOD sources in the number of troops deployed for OEF and OIF since FY2002, the allocation of troops between the two operations is similar. Before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, all troops deployed in the theater were allocated to OEF. Since then, CRS found that the split for troops between the two operations was generally about 88% to 90% for the Iraq war and 10% to 12% for the Afghan war over the last several years based on an analysis of three DOD sources, the Joint Staff’s Boots on the Ground, Central Command’s Operations Reports, and DMDC’s Location Report (Figure 3 and Figure 4). Figure 3. Share of Deployed Troops for Iraq in Boots on the Ground and Operations Reports, FY2003-FY2008 100% 95% 91% 90% 91% 90% 90% 88% 87% 89% 87% 89% 86% 87% 84% 85% 80% 75% FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 Iraq Boots on the Ground FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 OIF Operations Report Sources: Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), “Boots on the Ground Reports,” Summary Table, September 2001-October 2008; Central Command, “Operations Report,” September 2001-November 2008. Notes: CRS calculations of shares from sources above. The “Operations Report” includes all personnel for OEF and OIF who are assigned to the U.S. Central Command including personnel in-country and some of those in neighboring areas. Roughly, six or seven of every eight troops have been dedicated to the Iraq War and one or two of every eight to the Afghan war. While troop levels increased in Iraq during the surge or temporary buildup of troops in 2007 and 2008, troop levels also rose in Afghanistan so that the percentages remained similar to previous years (see Table 4 and Table 5 and Figure 3 and Figure 4). Congressional Research Service 26 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Figure 4. Share of Deployed Troops for Afghanistan in Boots on the Ground and Operations Reports, FY2002-FY2008 110% 100% Both 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 13% 9% 10%9% 12%10% 13%11% 14%11% 16%13% FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 0% FY2002 Afghanistan Boots on the Ground OEF Operations Reports Sources: Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), “Boots on the Ground Reports,” Summary Table, September 2001-October 2008; Central Command, “Operations Report,” September 2001-November 2008. Notes: CRS calculations of shares from sources above. The “Operations Report” includes all personnel for OEF and OIF who are assigned to the U.S. Central Command including personnel in-country and some of those in neighboring areas. CRS also calculated OEF and OIF troop shares using DMDC’s Location Reports and guidelines developed primarily by the Joint Staff and Central Command that designate particular countries as part of OEF or OIF. This count showed the same proportions as the Boots on the Ground and Operations Report of about 12% for OEF and 88% for OIF for FY2006-FY2008.57 While allocating personnel to an operation by country has certain limitations because some military personnel in a particular country may support either or both OEF and OIF, personnel in particular countries generally support only one operation (see Box 1). Although JCS and Central Command have adopted guidelines for their own reporting that assign personnel to OEF and OIF by location, the Comptroller in the Office of the Secretary of Defense has not set specific guidelines for the Services about how or whether to use location as a way to assign war costs for military personnel. Because there is not a single standard for assigning personnel or other war costs to OEF or OIF, troop and cost allocations may not match. This appears to reflect the assumption in DOD’s financial regulations that “Ultimately, each DOD Component is responsible for the accuracy and completeness of financial information in the reports which present the financial effects of its operations.”58 Thus while the Comptroller’s 57 For FY2006-FY2008, troops in OEF locations composed 11%, 12% and 14% of the total for both operations, with OIF troops making up 89%, 88% and 86%. DMDC considers its location data reliable only from January 2005 forward so CRS did not compute shares for the earlier years; in computing shares, CRS excluded about 15,000 military where DMDC cannot determine locations. 58 DOD Regulation 7000.14-R, Volume 6A, Chapter 2, November 2008; (continued...) Congressional Research Service 27 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 office works with the services to improve the accuracy of war cost reporting, and requires that each service develop and justify its method, it has not issued policy guidelines or regulations that would ensure commonality. Troop Levels for the Afghan War Since October 2001 After initial combat operations in FY2002 were complete, troop levels for the Afghan war increased steadily from FY2003 to FY2008 though the pace of increases varies among DOD sources. The lowest DOD figure, Boots on the Ground, tripled from an annual average of 10,400 in FY2003 to 30,100 in FY2008 while the more inclusive estimate, average strength, doubled from 21,000 in FY2002 to 42,000 in FY2008 (see Table 5 and Figure 5.). These changes in troop levels in the Afghan war appear to reflect several stages of military operations: • initial combat operations supporting the Northern Alliance that resulted in the overthrow of the Taliban forces by November 2001; • relatively low-level U.S. operations against the remaining Taliban insurgents from FY2003 – FY2006; and • adoption of a counter-insurgency approach in response to increasing levels of violence in 2006 as the Taliban regrouped and adopted the suicide and Improvised Explosive Device (IED) tactics of Iraqi insurgent groups. Initial Combat Operations The Afghan War, or Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), began on October 7, 2001 with U.S. troops launching air strikes and Special Operations forces supporting operations by the Northern Alliance against Taliban forces in response to the 9/11 attacks. President Bush announced that major combat operations were complete with the overthrow of the Taliban regime in November 2001. Under UN sponsorship, a transition government was formed, succeeded by an elected government on November 3, 2004.59 During FY2002, the first year of the war, an average of 5,200 troops were deployed in Afghanistan according to Boots on the Ground figures, the report capturing troops most likely to face combat. For that same year, the Operations Report, which includes some but not all support troops in neighboring areas, shows an average of 8,800 troops. The higher figure in the Operations Report also more accurately shows the initial troop buildup beginning in October 2001 rather than in January 2002 as shown in the BOG reports. (...continued) http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/fmr/06a/06a_02.pdf 59 CRS Report RL30588, Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy, by (name redacted), February 9, 2009, p.6-p.7. Congressional Research Service 28 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Neither of these headcounts of 5,200 in the Boots on the Ground Report or 8,800 troops in the Operations Report capture all troops deployed to launch Operation Enduring Freedom, particularly Air Force and Navy personnel operating offshore or outside of Afghanistan. A CRS allocation of the Average Strength Report suggests that some 83,400 troops participated in OEF in FY2002, including 33,000 Navy personnel on ships, and 30,000 Air Force personnel. The Operations Report shows only 100 Navy personnel and 2,000 Air Force personnel (see Table 5 and Figure 5).60 Table 5. Average Monthly Troop Levels in the Afghan War, FY2002-FY2008: Five DOD Sources Rounded to hundreds Average Monthly Troop Levels FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 Percent Change, FY2004FY2008a Boots on the Ground 5,200 10,400 15,200 19,100 20,400 23,700 30,100 98% Operations Report 8,800 12,500 19,700 19,600 22,000 24,600 30,000 52% Combat Pay Estimateb 63,300 42,800 32,600 49,700 31,300 16,900 55,700 71% Average Strength with CRS Allocationc 83,400 21,100 21,100 24,500 28,400 31,300 42,500 101% NR NR NR NR 28,663 32,160 40,951 NR Location Reportd Sources: Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff, “Boots on the Ground” (BOG) reports; Central Command, “Operations Report;” Defense Finance Accounting Services (DFAS), “Supplemental & Cost of War Execution Reports;” Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC), DRS 21198, “Average Number of Members Deployed on any given day by Service Component and Month/Year,” January 2009; DMDC, DRS 11280, “Modified Location Country Report ,” as of December 2008, April 21, 2009. Notes: NR = Not Reliable (see note d. below). CRS calculated monthly averages from the BOG, Operations, DFAS, Average Strength and Location reports for each fiscal year. CRS calculated annual averages from the monthly Joint Staff BOG and Operations reports. a. CRS calculated change since FY2004 to exclude the first year of combat for either operation. b. To estimate average strength from DFAS war reports, CRS divided the total amount reported for Imminent Danger Pay (IDP) by the $2,700 that each member receives per year. c. CRS estimated OEF average strength by applying the shares in Operations Reports to monthly averages for each fiscal year in Defense Manpower Data Center, DRS 21198 Report, “Average Strength Deployed for OIF and OEF,” as of January 2009 based on the Contingency Tracking System. d. FY2002-FY2005 are not included because DMDC does not consider location data in its Modified Location Country Report to be reliable until January 2005 because service members often were shown in their first location in the region rather than in their actual deployment. After that time, a system was developed where members recorded each location. In April 2009, DMDC “scrubbed” the data to eliminate doublecounts of members who were deployed more than once in one or multiple locations within the same 60 CRS calculated average monthly strength figures for OEF and OIF by OEF shares in the Joint Staff’s “Operations Reports;” see Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC), “DRS 21198, Average Number of Members Deployed on any given day by Service Component and Month/Year as of December 2008,” and Joint Staff, “Operations Report.” Congressional Research Service 29 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 month; this eliminated all but 400 in duplications. CRS allocated countries to OEF based primarily on guidelines developed by the Joint Staff and Central Command (see Box 1). Troop Levels Grow Steadily From FY2003-FY2006 After initial combat operations were complete in November 2001, troop levels for the Afghan War grew gradually but steadily. Boots on the Ground headcounts increase by about 5,000 troops a year between FY2003 and FY2005, then inch upward to 20,400 in FY2006. According to the more inclusive Operations Report, OEF troop levels rose from 12,500 in FY2003 to almost 20,000 by FY2004, remaining at about that level for the next two years (Table 5 and Figure 5). Because the Operations Report includes some military personnel in neighboring countries, these figures would be expected to be higher than Boots on the Ground reports, and generally OEF troop levels are between 1,000 to 5,000 higher than Boots on the Ground reports. This pattern is reversed for several months in FY2008, however, apparently because DOD changed the definition of personnel covered in the BOG report (see Table 5 and Appendix D and Table D-1).61 These variations suggest a need for better definitions that would clarify who is and is not counted as part of OEF and OIF. Figure 5. Average Monthly Troop Levels for the Afghan War, FY2002-FY2008: Five DOD Sources 90 In thousands 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 Boots on the Ground Operations Report Average Strength Location Report FY2007 FY2008 Combat Pay Estimate Sources: Joint Staff, “Boots on the Ground Reports”, Summary Table, Sept. 2001-October 2008; Central Command, “Operations Report,” September 2001- November 2008; Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) DRS Report 21198, “Average Number of Members Deployed on Any given Day, by Service Component and 61 Joint Staff, Memo in response to CRS questions,” April 20, 2009. Congressional Research Service 30 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Month/Year,” (computed by dividing the days deployed per month by the number of days in the month), January 2009; DMDC, DRS 11280, “Modified Location Country Report.” December 2008. Notes: CRS calculated monthly averages from the BOG, Operations, DFAS, Average Strength, and Location reports for each fiscal year. To estimate average strength from DFAS war cost reports, CRS divided the total amount reported for OEF Imminent Danger Pay (IDP) by the $2,700 that each member would receive per year. CRS estimated the average strength for OEF by applying the percentage shares for each fiscal year in the Operations reports to the monthly averages reported in DMDC’s Average Strength Report. Location Report figures for FY2002-FY2005 are not included because DMDC does not consider location data in its Modified Location Country Report to be reliable until January 2005 because service members often were shown in their first location in the region rather than in their actual deployment. After that time, a system was developed where members recorded each location. In April 2009, DMDC “scrubbed” the data to eliminate double-counts of members who were deployed more than once in one or multiple locations within the same month; this eliminated all but 400 in duplications. CRS allocated countries to OEF based primarily on guidelines developed by the Joint Staff and Central Command (see Box 1). To capture all troops providing theater-wide support in the region or engaged in other OEF counter-terror operations, CRS applied the shares shown in the Operations Report to the more complete figures compiled in the Average Strength Reports. Because the Average Strength Reports reflect each service’s reporting of benefits received and deployment dates, it is likely to be a more accurate measure of troop strength. At the same time, the similarity in OEF and OIF shares shown in BOG, Operations and Location Reports, suggests that applying shares to the Average Strength Reports would be a fairly reliable way to estimate OEF and OIF troop strength. According to this Average Strength estimate, OEF troops grew from 21,100 in FY2003 to 28,400 in FY2006 and 42,500 in FY2008. The Location Report shows similar figures (see Table 5). CRS also estimated troop levels by using Combat Pay reported in DOD’s “Supplemental & Cost of War Reports.” The sharp changes from year-to-year suggest that allocations between OEF and OIF may not be reliable, a criticism raised by GAO (see Table 5 and Figure 5).62 CRS includes this estimate despite its apparent inaccuracy because strength and combat pay would be expected to be consistent, and DOD uses this measure in its justification material for the FY2009 Supplemental.63 Further Increases As Violence Rises After 2006 In 2006 and 2007, the level of violence in Afghanistan grew as Taliban insurgents adopted the suicide attacks and roadside bombing of insurgents in Iraq.64 The renewed increase in troop levels in FY2006 and FY2007 appears to follow higher levels of violence as measured in: 62 See GAO, Global War on Terrorism: DOD Needs to More Accurately Capture and Report the Costs of Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom, GAO-09-302, March 17, 2009, p. 8; http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09302.pdf. 63 Department of Defense, FY 2009 Overseas Contingency Operations Request for Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) and Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), Air Force Military Personnel, p. 18 and 24; http://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-090410-048.pdf. 64 CRS Report RL30588, Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy, by (name redacted); CRS Report R40156, War in Afghanistan: Strategy, Military Operations, and Issues for Congress, by (name redacted). Congressional Research Service 31 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 • the number of security incidents and attacks, collected by DOD, the United Nations, and Central Command; • attacks on non-combatants collected by the State Department; • number of incidents involving IEDs and roadside bombs; • number or suicide bombings; and • number of U.S. and civilian casualties.65 All the different measures show increases in OEF troop strength in FY2007 and FY2008. After the modest increases in the prior two years, headcounts in both Boots on the Ground and the Operations Report rose by 10,000 between FY2006 and FY2008, reaching over 30,000. These figures probably do not capture all deployed troops. The more comprehensive Average Strength and Location Reports show an increase from 28,000 in FY2006 to 42,000 in FY2008, or roughly 5,000 more troops each year. (see Table 5).66 Since May 2008, in response to a congressional reporting requirement, DOD has included figures showing monthly headcounts for OEF as well as military personnel in Afghanistan in its Boots on the Ground report.67 For the last several months of FY2008, this new OEF figure shows an average of 47,790 for OEF, higher than either the Average Strength and Location Reports, and almost 18,000 above in-country headcounts.68 The reasons for these higher figures, submitted by the services, are not apparent (see Table 5). If these new DOD figures better reflect current OEF troop levels, then total troops for the Afghan War, including U.S. and coalition troops in Afghanistan, and U.S. troops in the region, would average 97,000 in FY2009. That total could grow to about 110,000 by the following year.69 Seasonal Variations While average monthly troop levels may more accurately reflect strength levels, once-a-month headcounts may better capture buildups and draw downs within a year as well as some longerterm trends. For example, between January and September 2002, troop levels shown in the Operations Report more than doubled from 4,100 to 10,400 as U.S. forces grew during initial 65 Center for Strategic & International Studies, Anthony H. Cordesman, “Losing the Afghan-Pakistan War? The Rising Threat,” September 14, 2008. 66 Before FY2006, DMDC does not consider the locations in its Location Country Report to be accurate because service members were sometimes recorded only in their original location, for example, in Kuwait, even if they were en route to Iraq. Since January 2005, DMDC has collected location data based on a system where members swipe cards in each country that they enter. CRS allocations of Average Strength to OEF and OIF are similar to DMDC’s Location Country Reports for FY2006-FY2008. 67 H.Rept. 110-279, Department of Defense Appropriations Bill, 2008, July 30, 2007, p. 27. 68 CRS calculation of Average Strength Report compared to figures shown in Joint Staff, monthly Boots on the Ground reports for May, June, July, August, September, and December 2008; DOD has not released the reports for October and November 2008. 69 CRS calculations based on DOD, Boots on the Ground Reports, May 2008-September 2008, and sources listed in Table 3. Congressional Research Service 32 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 combat operations. Despite month-to-month variations, a clear upward trend emerges for OEF in the Boots on the Ground and Operations Reports headcounts (see Figure 6 and Table D-1). During FY2003, U.S. troop levels hovered between 11,000 and 13,000 from month to month. Monthly variations may reflect seasonal variations and planned operations. For example, troop levels temporarily spiked in the fall and winter of 2003 and 2004 when the U.S. and Afghan forces conducted several operations against Taliban insurgents – Mountain Viper (August 2003), Operation Avalanche (December 2003) and Operation Mountain Storm (March-July 2004). In FY2004, troop levels grew to around 20,000 while the U.S. and Afghan troops continued operations against remaining Taliban insurgents at relatively low levels. 70 Typically, troop levels have increased for several months of the year -- sometimes early in the year in order to prepare for spring Taliban offensives when the weather is better. Between FY2003 and FY2008, troop levels generally rose in the winter and spring, then declined slightly in the summer and fall, settling back at somewhat higher troop levels each year (see Figure 6 and Table D-1). Figure 6. Monthly Boots on the Ground in Afghanistan and Troops Deployed for OEF Operations, September 2001-November 2008 In thousands Sep 01 Dec 01 Mar 02 Jun 02 Sep 02 Dec 02 Mar 03 Jun 03 Sep 03 Dec 03 Mar 04 Jun 04 Sep 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 Jun 05 Sep 05 Dec 05 Mar 06 Jun 06 Sep 06 Dec 06 Mar 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Sep 08 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 OEF Operations Reports Linear (BOG Reports in Afghanistan) BOG Reports in Afghanistan Source: Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), "Boots on the Ground Summary Table" provided to CRS, September 2008; Central Command, "Operations Report," September 2001-November 2008. Notes: Trend line inserted by CRS. Boots-On-the-Ground” captures deployed military personnel in-country while OEF also includes military personnel in the region that support that operation and are assigned to Central Command. DOD did not send Congress BOG reports for October and November 2008. 70 CRS Report RL30588, Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy, by (name redacted). Congressional Research Service 33 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 After falling by several thousand in the fall of 2006, U.S. troop levels rose to over 25,000 the following spring and summer as the situation in Afghanistan worsened. After a brief decline in the fall of 2007, troop levels resumed their upward climb reaching about 33,600 in the spring and summer of 2008 where they remained for the rest of the fiscal year (see Figure 6 and Table D-1). Troops from Other Countries Just as U.S. troop levels have risen since 2006, contributions from other NATO countries have also increased. Average troop levels from NATO countries other than the United States have grown from about 20,000 in FY2007 to 28,000 in FY2008, and 31,000 in FY2009 thus far.71 While the United States has requested additional troops from NATO countries, increases are likely to be small. Troop Levels for the Iraq War Since the March 2003 Invasion In the fall of 2002, the United States began to build up troop levels in the Gulf region in preparation for the invasion of Iraq that took place in late March 2003. After peaking in the spring and summer of 2003, troop levels then fell rapidly. Between FY2004 and FY2006, average troop levels reached a steady-state of about 130,000 to 140,000 on the ground in Iraq and from about 210,000 to 230,000 for OIF as a whole according to estimates of DOD average strength. During the surge in troops initiated by President Bush in January 2007 and continuing through much of FY2008, troop levels in Iraq increased somewhat more steeply — from 140,000 to 158,000 in-country and from 233,000 to 248,000 (see Table 6 and Figure 6). Changes in troop levels in Iraq appear to be loosely related to changes in military strategy including: • a quick peak for the invasion itself followed by a rapid drawdown; • limits on troop strength reflecting the military strategy endorsed by General Abizaid, the commander in-country, to minimize military presence in order to prevent insurgents from using the U.S. occupation as a way to gain popular support;72 • a shift in the U.S. strategy in October 2005 announced by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to “clear, hold, and build” so as to “clear areas from insurgent control,” that would gradually be implemented as U.S. troops moved out of large bases to work more closely with Iraqi forces;73 and 71 CRS calculated fiscal year averages based “Placemat” exhibit entries for various months on International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), Factsheet, Placemat; http://www.nato.int/isaf/docu/epub/pdf/placemat.html. 72 CRS Report RL34387, Operation Iraqi Freedom: Strategies, Approaches, Results, and Issues for Congress, by (name redacted); http://apps.crs.gov/products/rl/pdf/RL34387.pdf. 73 As quoted in Ibid, p 59. Congressional Research Service 34 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 • the surge in troops announced by President Bush in January 2007 that temporarily increased the number of troops by 30,000 and the number of Brigade Combat Teams from 15 to 20 in order to implement the new counter-insurgency policy to help Iraqis clear and secure neighborhoods. Initial Combat Operations While Boots on the Ground headcounts show average strength of 67,00 in FY2003, other measures that capture Navy and Air Force personnel outside Iraq show strength levels that are almost two or three times as high (see Table 6 and Figure 7). Month-to-month headcounts show the buildup for initial combat operations, followed by a fairly rapid draw down. Troop levels for the invasion peaked at 149,000 according to DOD’s Boots on the Ground reports while troop levels for OIF reached a highpoint of 285,000 in April 2003 — almost twice as high as the number of U.S. troops in-country (see Table D-2). Troop levels in Iraq itself may not have reached the 285,000 peak deployed in the region partly because many U.S. troops who were en route, at sea, or deployed to Kuwait may not have been sent into Iraq. For example, Secretary Rumsfeld and General Franks decided to turn back the 1st Cavalry Division, which had been scheduled to enter Iraq.74 Although monthly averages smooth out the peaks and valleys of the invasion and its aftermath, the OIF Operations Report for FY2003 is still twice as high as the Boots on the Ground (see Table 6). Table 6. Average Monthly Troop Levels in the Iraq War, FY2002-FY2008: Five DOD Sources Rounded to hundreds FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 Percent Change, FY2004FY2008a Boots on the Ground 0 67,700 130,600 143,800 141,100 148,300 157,800 21% Operations Report 0 128,600 196,900 184,400 181,300 191,200 193,100 -2% Combat Pay Estimateb 0 123,200 205,700 202,000 197,400 231,000 236,800 15% Average Strength with CRS Allocationc 0 216,500 211,600 230,500 234,100 243,200 251,100 19% NR NR NR NR 229,587 242,531 252,126 NR Average Annual Troop Level Location Reportd Source: Joint Staff, Joint Chiefs of Staff, “Boots on the Ground” (BOG) reports; Joint Staff, “Operations Report;” Defense Finance Accounting Services (DFAS), “Supplemental & Cost of War Execution Reports;” Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC), DRS 21198, “Average Number of Members Deployed on any given day by Service Component and Month/Year,” January 2009; DMDC, DRS 11280, “Modified Location Country Report,” December 2008. 74 CRS Report RL34387, Operation Iraqi Freedom: Strategies, Approaches, Results, and Issues for Congress, by (name redacted), December 15, 2008, p. 36. Congressional Research Service 35 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Notes: NR = Not Reliable (see note d. below). CRS calculated monthly averages from the BOG, Operations, DFAS, Average Strength and Location reports for each fiscal year. a. CRS calculated change since FY2004 to exclude first year of combat for either operation. b. To estimate average strength from DFAS war reports, CRS divided the total amount reported for Imminent Danger Pay (IDP) by the annual amount that each member would receive. c. CRS estimated OEF and OIF allocations by applying shares in Joint Staff's Operations Report to DMDC’s, DRS 21198 Average Strength Report. d. Figures are not available before FY2006 because DMDC does not consider its Modified Location Country report to be reliable until January 2005 as service members often were shown in their first location in the region rather than in their actual deployment; since that time, service members swipe a card upon arrival in each location. In response to a CRS request, DMDC “scrubbed” the data to eliminate double-counts of members who were deployed more than once within a month either in one location or multiple locations. After former President Bush declared an end to major combat in Iraq on May 1, 2003, troop levels in Iraq dropped from the invasion peak of 149,000 to 130,000 in September 2001. OIF troop levels fell from 285,000 in April to 170,000 in October 2003. The gap between those in Iraq and those part of the OIF operation narrowed from 140,000 during the invasion to 40,000 by that summer, possibly because of the re-deployment of forces (see Table D-2).75 In March 2004, OIF troop levels spiked again to 270,000 compared to 120,000 in Iraq for reasons that are not clear. One possibility is that additional troops may have been deployed to the region in anticipation of problems with the transfer of power from the U.S. occupation force to an Iraqi government by June 30, 2004.76 Based on the Average Strength estimate, troop levels for OIF reached about 216,000 in FY2003, considerably higher than either headcount measure, probably because this approach captures troops outside Iraq. The estimate for OIF based on Imminent Danger Pay may be unreliable because of inaccurate war cost reporting (see Table 6 and Figure 7). Troop Levels Plateau From FY2004-FY2006 From FY2004 through FY2006, average troop levels for the Iraq War changed little under all measures, generally varying by several thousand to about 10,000 from year to year. While Boots on the Ground headcounts grew from 130,600 to 141,100, the Operations Report for OIF fell from 196,900 to 181,300 in those years for reasons that are unclear. The OIF share of average strength rose by over 20,000, from 211,600 in FY2004 to 234,100 in FY2006 (see Table 6). The gap between Boots on the Ground and the Average Strength estimate ranged from about 70,000 in FY004 to 90,000 in FY2006. This gap probably reflects the buildup of in-theater support as the war continued. For OIF, the major regional support and headquarters countries include about: • 45,000 to 50,000 in Kuwait; 75 These generalizations are based on looking at individual country deployments in Defense Manpower Data Center Report DRS 11280, “Number of Members Deployed By Country by Month,” June 30, 2008. 76 CRS Report RL31339, Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security, by (name redacted). Congressional Research Service 36 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 • 16,000 to 20,000 on ships afloat; • 9,000 to 10,000 in the Qatar headquarters base; • 2,000 in the United Arab Emirates; • 4,000 in Bahrain, a Navy regional headquarters; and • 500 to 600 in Saudi Arabia.77 Figure 7. Average Monthly Troop Levels for the Iraq War, FY2002-FY2008: Five DOD Sources In thousands 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 Boots on the Ground Operations Report Average Strength Location Report FY2007 FY2008 Combat Pay Estimate Sources: Joint Staff, “Boots on the Ground Reports”, Summary Table, Sept. 2001-October 2008; Central Command, “Operations Report,” September 2001- November 2008; Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) DRS Report 21198, “Average Number of Members Deployed on Any given Day, by Service Component and Month/Year,” (computed by dividing the days deployed per month by the number of days in the month), January 2009; DMDC, DRS 11280, “Modified Location Country Report.” December 2008. Notes: CRS calculated monthly averages from the BOG, Operations, DFAS, Average Strength, and Location reports for each fiscal year. To estimate average strength from DFAS war cost reports, CRS divided the total amount reported for OEF Imminent Danger Pay (IDP) by the $2,700 that each member would receive per year. CRS estimated the average strength for OEF by applying the percentage shares for each fiscal year in the 77 CRS calculations of fiscal year averages for FY2006 and FY2007 based on DMDC, “DRS 11280, Modified Stinson Country Report,” December 2008. According to “business rules” developed by the Joint Staff, troops dedicated to OIF include the following countries: Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain; Joint Staff, September 5, 2008 email communication to CRS. Congressional Research Service 37 Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY2001-FY2012 Operations reports to the monthly averages reported in DMDC’s Average Strength Report. Location Report figures for FY2002-FY2005 are not included because DMDC does not consider location data in its Modified Location Country Report to be reliable until January 2005 because service members often were shown in their first location in the region rather than in their actual deployment. After that time, a system was developed where members recorded each location. In April 2009, DMDC “scrubbed” the data to eliminate double-counts of members who were deployed more than once in one or multiple locations within the same month; this eliminated all but 400 in duplications. CRS allocated countries to OIF based primarily on guidelines developed by the Joint Staff and Central Command (see Box 1). While troop levels were relatively stable --- hovering around 140,000 in Iraq itself and around 230,000 for OIF, the number of security incidents per week grew from about 500 in March 2005 to about 900 in September 2005. After the Samarra mosque bombing in March and April of 2006, security incidents rose more steeply to 1,000 per week, almost twice the level of the previous year.78 Troop Surge in FY2007 and FY2008 By October 2006, weekly security incidents in Iraq reached 1,400, peaking at close to 1,600 in June 2007.79 In reaction, then-President Bush announced in January 2007 that there would be a surge in the number of troops deployed to Iraq, an increase of 30,000 or five brigade combat teams over the next several months. Because the Army plans deployments six to 12 months in advance in order to prepare and train units, the service [Text truncated at 120,000 characters. The full text is on the page linked above.] --- Source: Frix Law Library, https://www.frixlaw.com/law-library/documents/crs%3AR40682. Public record. Not legal advice.